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By actually making special teams have to design “plays” in order to increase their chances of scoring on any given kickoff, it adds a whole new dimension to the game that just makes it that more exciting to watch and study. it’ll open the door for more players to make plays and just give us a more exciting product while also limiting injuries. well that’s my take on it anyways😅
This is why I don't think the current rules go far enough. I think it could use just a tad more flexibility when it comes to where players line up because unfortunately, these plays are still largely, as a whole, forgettable. That and starting at the 30 is not punishing enough for the kicking team. Make it the 35.
@@Nichrysaliswhy not just at the 50 then if you just wanna give teams shorter and shorter fields to work with we might score 50+ a game that wouldn’t be good at all
@@Nichrysalis No, if we want more returns we need to incentivize the returning team to take it out of the back. Just move the touch back to the 10 or 15 so they can only gain by returning a kick then move the kicker back to the 25 so he can't just boot it out of the end zone everytime.
Soccer player here, Brandon Aubrey is probably the most talented soccer player that's ever converted to playing kicker in the NFL. It's no surprise that he's leading the way on this sort of innovation because these kicks are a lot closer to what soccer players practice doing. I'm excited to see what else he cooks up with more and more practice time
@@eddielorentz8019 lol. Have you ever kicked a football before? There is next to 0 carryover between kicking a soccer ball and football. The balls move in completely different ways
@@donsolos You're correct the balls do move in different ways. That's why he's likely still getting better and we've yet to see his full potential as a kicker. My point is that it's no coincidence that he's the one unlocking these new kickoffs and hitting 65 yard fgs. To answer your facetious question, yes I regularly hit 40 yard bomb punts with spiral for fun, but that's not actually relevant to this convo
Being one of the first few people who’ve witnessed this kickoff live (XFL 2020 week 1), I’ve always been a massive fan of this kickoff and I never would’ve thought that the nfl would actually do it, but here we are!
The Texans just did the "every kickoff is a touchback" play to the Bears, mostly because they then threw everything at the Bears' porous O-line and were stuffing them all game.
Well, if an offense is bad, especially on the line there's no incentive to play ball on this because it probably doesn't matter if it's on the thirty for most drives at the start.
He's still good from under 50. Not as good as he once was, but as good as he ever was once. Having a wily veteran kicker is weird but I like that for him.
My reaction to the first minute of this video is: "Cool. Kickoffs are just run plays that cover the width of the field... Wait, does this mean that return blockers are going to be ear-holing trap gunners with a full head of steam from literally across the width of the field? Oh. I don't think this new kickoff is going to last very long."
Brett, going to video time stamp 8:18 - you could get yourself a kicker like Chris Boswell who successfully kicked three FGs from outside of 50 yards. Pittsburgh beat Atlanta in week 1 on the leg of Boswell and the pass rush of TJ Watt.
Very interesting to hear the strategies behind this, it'll be interesting to see what become the most dominant strategies, might need a follow up video at the end of the season
Good analysis. My question is why are most teams using the old kickoff trajectory that maximizes hang time? No benefit when kicking defenders can't run until ball is touched. Seems clear the best strategy is to line drive the kickoff as you showed Cam Little do. Cowboys and Saints did the same thing in week 2. If defenders decide to try and field the line drive, there are likely to be a higher number of muffs.
Ngl: I thought this vid was going to be about the Steelers and how their special teams was effectively their offense for Week 1 but your vid was still very good and I'm looking forward to seeing how much more interesting kickoffs are going to get this season!
They need to make the touchback result in the 40, the landing zone pin should result in the 10. Up the risk and reward… Or they could just go 4th & 20 from the 30 for the kicking team, like they should’ve done, so there is an onside opportunity
They made the kickoff return better but they made onside kicks almost impossible. I would love to see a video that explains how they made the onside kick almost impossible now and potential fixes that actually give teams a chance to recover them
Dave Fipp (ST coordinator for the Lions) suggested moving the coverage unit up 5 yards. Putting the average start on a return at the 25 and encouraging returns.
I would like to see the touchback moved to the 35 so that it is a little more punishing to blast it out of the back of the end zone, but it's better than the last few years
Regarding Kickoffs, I'd like touchback to give possessions on the 40yds line, so this will push teams to return those (and avoid situations where you have 8 touchbacks in the game, and no returns).
Hey man love the videos! Just a heads up for future reference, saying the average drive is 29.9 yards and saying most drives end around the average is not the same thing. A lot of drives end in 0-10 yards and a lot of drives end in 75 yards (probably 70 this year). That reinforces that average without taking a single 30-yard drive into account. It would probably be a better to see the actual % of drives that end after netting 20-40 yards, or even the difference in % of drives that are 30 yards or less compared to 35 yards or less as that difference is what is really going to matter when it comes to where the drive starts. Keep up the great work!
I still feel like the new kick off isn’t going to solve the problem that the old kickoffs had. The new rule to me seems like a fad thing where teams try it out and then over time it becomes less and less. I feel like for now this solves the issue but I feel like 2-3 years from now teams will just go back to the old ways and just attempt to hit the target zone and just the touchback at the 20 which isn’t hard to do
I like the idea of combining the cowboys and jags kickers ideas, aiming to one side of the field and forcing the returner to chase it but also knuckleballing it to make it hard to track. Because of that unpredictable ball path you may end up with more instances of the returner misjudging it and it rolling into the end zone for the 20 yd line touchback, or at least creating a delay in the return to give your guys more time to get there.
Could you do a video comparing and contrasting how different the NFL was today compared to what it was like 20 years ago in 2004? Im talking rules, officiating, offenses, defenses, formations, trends, etc. Especially since the running game seems to be making a comeback, and teams are criticized for being exclusively in shotgun formation. Watching clips from the 2004 season, seems like many more plays were done from under center in a variety of formations: the I, split back, strong, weak, etc. What is better and worse about the NFL today?
Question, does the average drive length include shorter fields and end of half/game scenarios where the clock could end the drive? I wonder what the difference is if we only look at drives that start off kickoffs/punts that put the offense at the 30 or further
Took some time to get used to, but it's so much better. I feel like there would be 1-2 returns a game max previously, now it seems like there are 4-5 each week. It's an actual play now, and anything that makes kickers more valuable is fine by me lol
All this analysis and what we're seeing is the opposite of what this video states. Teams are generally trending 10-15+% higher touchback rates after week 3 (Rams are 100% so far this year vs. 87% in 23 for example) because all the trick plays and setups for big returns only benefit the receiving team. This setup is still a bathroom break and will always be one. Quit making excuses for the NFL. It's a gimmick at best that kills the onside play even more thus making the entire endings of games less exciting (Minus Dallas wk 3 cuz BAL can't catch). Seems a poor trade. More touchbacks, less exciting endings according to the numbers being turned in.
If there's a three percent more scoring drives starting at the 30, assuming half are FGs and half are TDs, the risk a team takes by bouncing a kick inside the 20 is that the runback results in a FG or TD either within the play or resulting from a drive with much better field position. If this happens more than one out 6.5 times they try it, it's a losing strategy (again assuming equal numbers FGs and TDs). I think the end of the season will prove that it happens far more often than that because once in a while you get a great kick like the example but usually it will go out the sideline or be run back for good field position or a score. Soon everything will be driven through the back of the endzone and this becomes just another time waster. Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see.
Honestly I think the solution is to just get rid of touchbacks. Make it so that if the ball lands in the end zone, you redo the kick. That way they HAVE to kick a returnable ball.
If they wanted more run-outs, they should have made the TB be at the 25, where most special teams players would think "I can do better than _that!" Also, remove announcing you're making an on-side kick. That is stupid.
The other element of the kicker takeover that I have a hypothesis about but haven't studied to confirm it is that offensive playcalling gets a lot more conservative leaguewide once teams get near their opponents' 35-40 yard line, at least in the first three quarters or so. If you don't get a first down there, it's fine because every kicker in the league except Justin Tucker can reliably boot 50+-yarders, and unless you're Dan Campbell or prime Brandon Staley, you're taking the points.
I'll be curious to see how the league adapts. I know 3-on-3 OT in hockey was an awesome addition for the first few seasons, until the teams just learned the play it safe and started circling back into their own zone constantly and just killing clock which kind of put a damper on what started as just all out action with so much more ice to play with.
It’s going to be interesting to see how NFL teams adapt their fourth-down decision making to adjust for these kickoffs. Between a higher likelihood of big returns and the offense getting an extra 5 yards on touchbacks, it significantly increases the opposing offense’s chance of going down field and scoring 3 (or 7) - thus devaluing the 3 points that you get from a field goal. We just saw teams make some interesting calls to go for it on fourth down in the red zone early in games this past weekend, I think we might see that trend continue outside of game situations where teams need to take their 3 points.
I was cautiously optimistic about the "dynamic kickoff"(corny) coming into the season - I'm legitimately excited about the outlook now after the first two weeks. The returns are really mixing up the starting field position, which I think is getting lost in all the "big return potential" talk. If a returner comes out with the ball, there's just as good of a chance that they're getting tackled 5+yds short of the 30 as there is of them getting to the 30, but we're also seeing returns that make it out 5, 10, 15 yards past the 30 too, so it's really mixing things up again. Lets just get that touchback changed from the 30 to the 35 next season like was originally proposed, and I think it'll be pretty solid.
Two consequences I propose the league allows from here: Salary cap increase for players on special teams, meaning there’s basically an added cap that’s higher but only when that money is actually spent on ST players. Secondly I think they will have to eventually open more roster spots for teams yet again on the condition that the spots are used for specialist players. When special teams plays are no longer an after thought then teams should be allowed to strategize for them to the same extent as offense or defense.
Just give it to the kicking team, 4th and 15 on your own 35. Most teams will punt most of the time, but occasionally it'll be worth it to go for it.. Plus you'll still have a chance to do fake punts.
I feel like the risk-reward on touchbacks arent properly calibrated. A "bounce-in" touchback should put the offense on their own 15 yard line instead of 20. Not only would you get more stats/numbers for offenses having to drive more yards to get to the endzone, but you would also get a lot more chances for the receiving team to be goalies on their goal-line to get to the ball and return it.
I think you have to compare epa from a landing zone kick vs epa from a kick in the endzone for an apples to apples comparison. Id be curious if once you account for returns in the landing zone if the epa is better for endzone kicks
The problem with the new kick return isn't going to be the difference in touch back starting position affecting decisions, it's also compared to avg returned kick starting positions. Yes the coffin corner kick was great but an oblong shape bouncing right right way on you is not a high bet, especially as weather gets worse. The real math is if kicks that are returned are on avg getting out beyond the 20, which hint they are, then at which avg return mark between 20 and 30 does the avoidance of the game turning play just always make sense over giving up an extra 1 -3 yards of starting position. Teams will try stuff this year sure, but as soon as too many big returns happen or even normal returns get too good we are right back where we were before. Only way you change it is by making all touch backs go out to a spot that nearly no normal return gets too like the 40 or 45, which is a massive competitive balance issue in its own right.
AGREED how you ended this. I absolutely love the new kickoff. I hear constantly how people hate it on X and it's annoying, why? It's so much more fun than before. It really makes 3 phases of the game again.
I wonder if this will lead teams to have an extra kicker on their roster that might be better at this kicking format then the kicker that is you FG go to.
This kickoff would be be even more perfect if touchbacks went to the 40 instead of the 30. The return rate would be insane and essentially every kicker will have to adapt
I personally think that goes too far in the other direction of disincentivizing touchbacks. Remember that the whole point of the change was to increase safety while making the kickoff more exciting, but at a certain point having too many returns reintroduces unnecessary injury risk and reduces variety in the play. A touchback is okay every now and then lol
@@TyaColoso what you are saying is we need to also start limiting plays on offense and defence because the more they play the more they are gonna get hurt. Well, its time to get the cheerleaders involved. Maybe if they outcheer the other team you get to advance the ball 10 yards?
@@donsolos “I like pancakes” “So you hate waffles?” 🤡🤡🤡 I’m merely talking about the leagues motivations for changing the kickoff doofus. I personally want the physicality back too so go stand on your soapbox elsewhere while the rest of us live in reality.
@@TyaColo I don't think that's a bad argument however that's where the strategy comes into play of trying to squib it on the landing zone before having it go in the endzone. Many people are predicting that sometime next year it's gonna go back to the old kickoff in it's return rate, cause 30 yards isn't even all that punishing and it doesn't take much effort - just launch it as as far as you can.
Idk it feels like the status quo in the NFL is to just do whatever reduces variance the most, even if it’s not the “best” decision. Pretty sure most teams will default to kicking it out of the end zone because there is 0 chance that that ball gets returned for a TD. Yes, you can break down the stats and find out that doing that is not the ideal play, but it does in fact reduce variance on the play to 0. And that’s what matters most to NFL coaches.
madden once again setting the meta for the NFL , what a time to be alive Edit: for those wondering the cheat motion that Mia does people in madden where doing it forever
That average yard thing doesnt work I feel like youd have to look at the distribution and median. Because a lot of scoring drives + a lot of 3 and outs will look like an average of 30 or so yards.
Bears special teams, defense, and offensive fire power is solid as hell! If only they had an average offensive line like they thought they had on paper before the season started 😢
Can we get a play for each team? Like for the hoodies. I’ve been wanting one of those hoodies for a while now but I’m not gonna walk around with a Minny Miracle hoodie as a saints fan, for example. Maybe do the play Brees broke the consecutive games with a TD, any Kamara Screen TD (rookie szn Bucs game, early career packers game, or the cowboys game from this weekend), or Meachem’s strip after Brees INT (although I understand how this wouldn’t make much sense on a hoodie). Also idk how you’d do special teams or defense but if you do, Gleason’s punt block or the SB onside kick
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Brett pls make a video on Kyle Pitts and his misutilization by the Falcons. It infuriates me that the falcons keep using him the way they are
im so ready for some trash team in like week 15 vs the 9ers to whip out the craziest quadruple reverse kickoff idea known to man
noooo not the 9ers that team has suffered enough lol
The 49ers week 15 team is the Rams and yeah no for sure McVay would do some shit like that
Tubfrog?!
If belichick was still our coach it would be him 100 percent
TUBFROG APPEARANCE
Justin Tucker is the only kicker in the league that's missed a 50 yard kick this season nfl kickers are 34/36 on 50+ yard kicks
our goats washed 💔💔💔💔
Not quite true. Matt Gay also missed a 50 yarder because he sucks
@themadman8185 I'm gay and I also suck, but they're not giving me a NFL contract for it.
@@calebkimmel372 That's crazy 😭😭😭
@@calebkimmel372🙄🙄
Wow. Another gay person whose whole identity is "I'm gay now pay attention to me"
If Brandon Aubrey gets hurt, there might be pitchforks at your door Brett
Im tracking him down because aubrey is my fantasy mvp
Lmao
He is single handily carrying not 1 but 2 of my 2 fantasy teams. I’ll hunt you down Brett
Good thing Dallas is screwed with or without him lol
By actually making special teams have to design “plays” in order to increase their chances of scoring on any given kickoff, it adds a whole new dimension to the game that just makes it that more exciting to watch and study. it’ll open the door for more players to make plays and just give us a more exciting product while also limiting injuries. well that’s my take on it anyways😅
This is why I don't think the current rules go far enough. I think it could use just a tad more flexibility when it comes to where players line up because unfortunately, these plays are still largely, as a whole, forgettable. That and starting at the 30 is not punishing enough for the kicking team. Make it the 35.
Get this goofy sh off my lawn
@@Nichrysaliswhy not just at the 50 then if you just wanna give teams shorter and shorter fields to work with we might score 50+ a game that wouldn’t be good at all
😂😂😂😂
You think they werent designing plays before? My goodness you dont have a clue
@@Nichrysalis No, if we want more returns we need to incentivize the returning team to take it out of the back. Just move the touch back to the 10 or 15 so they can only gain by returning a kick then move the kicker back to the 25 so he can't just boot it out of the end zone everytime.
Well done NFL. Something that is safer, takes more strategy, more skill and is funner to watch.
Soccer player here, Brandon Aubrey is probably the most talented soccer player that's ever converted to playing kicker in the NFL. It's no surprise that he's leading the way on this sort of innovation because these kicks are a lot closer to what soccer players practice doing. I'm excited to see what else he cooks up with more and more practice time
Soccer player here. It has nothing to do with soccer lol. It's just ability
@@donsolos you're clearly not a serious athlete if you think his technique wouldn't have any carry over at all
@@eddielorentz8019 lol. Have you ever kicked a football before? There is next to 0 carryover between kicking a soccer ball and football. The balls move in completely different ways
@@donsolos You're correct the balls do move in different ways. That's why he's likely still getting better and we've yet to see his full potential as a kicker. My point is that it's no coincidence that he's the one unlocking these new kickoffs and hitting 65 yard fgs. To answer your facetious question, yes I regularly hit 40 yard bomb punts with spiral for fun, but that's not actually relevant to this convo
Most kickers are just told by the coach to kick into the end zone
Being one of the first few people who’ve witnessed this kickoff live (XFL 2020 week 1), I’ve always been a massive fan of this kickoff and I never would’ve thought that the nfl would actually do it, but here we are!
60 yard fgs are about to be so normalized that kickers are going to lose jobs if they can’t kick that far even if they are accurate
As a Vikings fan, I'd still take accuracy.
@@Angrynood im sure the bills would too
@@Angrynoodof course you would, we’re traumatized
Which is crazy with how offense friendly the NFL is. If your team needs an accurate 50+ yard FG kicker you’re probably a trash team.
@@Angrynood I’m a bears fan Cody parky still haunts me
1:20 TURN AROUND AND BLOCK FOR ME DAMNIT
An improvement overall. Another great video Brett!
Also, Sam Darnold - America's Quarterback
Sam "I look like a Lego police officer" Darnold
other than the onside kick rule, I love the new kickoffs
The Texans just did the "every kickoff is a touchback" play to the Bears, mostly because they then threw everything at the Bears' porous O-line and were stuffing them all game.
Well, if an offense is bad, especially on the line there's no incentive to play ball on this because it probably doesn't matter if it's on the thirty for most drives at the start.
All of the Thursday night kickoffs were touchbacks, no reason not to
@@8ctopus0000 That's cause the Pats are wretched and have no line
Kaimi Fairbairn has been carrying my fantasy team so far
Me too, they have made this poor man hit 3 fifty yarders per game and I am overjoyed about that.
The NFL saw Jon Bois's chart party and responded. You love to see it.
Crazy part of it is tucker is falling off.
he came into the game 7-8 years too early i fear
He's still good from under 50. Not as good as he once was, but as good as he ever was once.
Having a wily veteran kicker is weird but I like that for him.
*And* the Steelers & Commanders have wins due strictly to this.
He'll probably get back to form. But he's definitely not the best kicker anymore that mantle has clearly been passed off at this point.
Wizard of Boz is unbeatable
My reaction to the first minute of this video is:
"Cool. Kickoffs are just run plays that cover the width of the field... Wait, does this mean that return blockers are going to be ear-holing trap gunners with a full head of steam from literally across the width of the field? Oh. I don't think this new kickoff is going to last very long."
Brett, going to video time stamp 8:18 - you could get yourself a kicker like Chris Boswell who successfully kicked three FGs from outside of 50 yards. Pittsburgh beat Atlanta in week 1 on the leg of Boswell and the pass rush of TJ Watt.
And running the ball and dominating time of possession and keeping the defense off the field, ect
Very interesting to hear the strategies behind this, it'll be interesting to see what become the most dominant strategies, might need a follow up video at the end of the season
Good analysis. My question is why are most teams using the old kickoff trajectory that maximizes hang time? No benefit when kicking defenders can't run until ball is touched. Seems clear the best strategy is to line drive the kickoff as you showed Cam Little do. Cowboys and Saints did the same thing in week 2. If defenders decide to try and field the line drive, there are likely to be a higher number of muffs.
A big ship turns slowly.
You'd rather be accurate with the kickers you have than make them kick a new way. I expect a LOT of kickers will be switching over.
Ngl: I thought this vid was going to be about the Steelers and how their special teams was effectively their offense for Week 1 but your vid was still very good and I'm looking forward to seeing how much more interesting kickoffs are going to get this season!
Hell yeah I've wanted to see some special teams film content for a while now. Thanks Brett!
They need to make the touchback result in the 40, the landing zone pin should result in the 10. Up the risk and reward…
Or they could just go 4th & 20 from the 30 for the kicking team, like they should’ve done, so there is an onside opportunity
They made the kickoff return better but they made onside kicks almost impossible. I would love to see a video that explains how they made the onside kick almost impossible now and potential fixes that actually give teams a chance to recover them
Devin Hester would have 35 return TDs a season now, man.
Now we only need a way to get the surprise onside kick back 😢
I genuinely like watching kickoffs now, it’s crazy that these rule changes have been pretty much only positively received
damn another normal hour upload!!
Alien take over the body
@@Speedster___😂
Yeah, the kickoff change is the best thing the NFL has done in years.
Aubrey is getting the chance at a 70 yd field goal this season
It's gonna end up being the same before. Teams won't even risk it and start booting the ball out the end zone
The week three games I listened didn’t have any returns.
Anything that increases the need for skilled kickers is AMAZING
Dave Fipp (ST coordinator for the Lions) suggested moving the coverage unit up 5 yards. Putting the average start on a return at the 25 and encouraging returns.
I would like to see the touchback moved to the 35 so that it is a little more punishing to blast it out of the back of the end zone, but it's better than the last few years
Regarding Kickoffs, I'd like touchback to give possessions on the 40yds line, so this will push teams to return those (and avoid situations where you have 8 touchbacks in the game, and no returns).
truly a game of inches. great vid!
Cam little is so good I miss him at Arkansas
Is this like Brett Kollmans money ball moment ?
Issac Punts will love this
Thank you for this video! I also love the new kickoffs!
You the Man Brett!
So far the average return yards are only 4 more than last year
Can we get a saints offense breakdown? We haven’t had a video about us in like 4 years 🙏
Feeling blessed to see a Battlehawks highlight in one of these.
Kickers are only dominant when they’re playing the Bears. this is a scientific fact.
IsaacPunts is living his best life right now.
Fairburn for the Texans has been carrying my fantasy team 😂
I thought this video would be about how the 50 yard fg has become seemingly automatic for nfl kickers and 60+ yarders are more and more common
Hey man love the videos! Just a heads up for future reference, saying the average drive is 29.9 yards and saying most drives end around the average is not the same thing. A lot of drives end in 0-10 yards and a lot of drives end in 75 yards (probably 70 this year). That reinforces that average without taking a single 30-yard drive into account. It would probably be a better to see the actual % of drives that end after netting 20-40 yards, or even the difference in % of drives that are 30 yards or less compared to 35 yards or less as that difference is what is really going to matter when it comes to where the drive starts. Keep up the great work!
Reverses worked! Shows one of the hella limited times reverses actually worked in the XFL lol
5:30 FtF in the background. I saw you in the comment section recently.
St. Louis Battlehawks film in a Brett Kollmann video, what universe am I in?
There is also the big factor that now you can actually stop the returning team further back than the 20, so there is also that.
I still feel like the new kick off isn’t going to solve the problem that the old kickoffs had. The new rule to me seems like a fad thing where teams try it out and then over time it becomes less and less. I feel like for now this solves the issue but I feel like 2-3 years from now teams will just go back to the old ways and just attempt to hit the target zone and just the touchback at the 20 which isn’t hard to do
I like the idea of combining the cowboys and jags kickers ideas, aiming to one side of the field and forcing the returner to chase it but also knuckleballing it to make it hard to track. Because of that unpredictable ball path you may end up with more instances of the returner misjudging it and it rolling into the end zone for the 20 yd line touchback, or at least creating a delay in the return to give your guys more time to get there.
Only Brett would run touchback VT.
Love it.
Could you do a video comparing and contrasting how different the NFL was today compared to what it was like 20 years ago in 2004? Im talking rules, officiating, offenses, defenses, formations, trends, etc.
Especially since the running game seems to be making a comeback, and teams are criticized for being exclusively in shotgun formation. Watching clips from the 2004 season, seems like many more plays were done from under center in a variety of formations: the I, split back, strong, weak, etc. What is better and worse about the NFL today?
So basically Devin Hester would have scored a TD every other kickoff. 🤯
Excellent breakdown
Question, does the average drive length include shorter fields and end of half/game scenarios where the clock could end the drive? I wonder what the difference is if we only look at drives that start off kickoffs/punts that put the offense at the 30 or further
This is moneyball. Field goals for life
The Browns want their money back hahahahahaha
Alright now i have to stop making fun of the new dynamic kickoff
Fantastic video!
Took some time to get used to, but it's so much better. I feel like there would be 1-2 returns a game max previously, now it seems like there are 4-5 each week. It's an actual play now, and anything that makes kickers more valuable is fine by me lol
I’m glad these rules have made the special teams element of football matter more again
All this analysis and what we're seeing is the opposite of what this video states. Teams are generally trending 10-15+% higher touchback rates after week 3 (Rams are 100% so far this year vs. 87% in 23 for example) because all the trick plays and setups for big returns only benefit the receiving team. This setup is still a bathroom break and will always be one. Quit making excuses for the NFL. It's a gimmick at best that kills the onside play even more thus making the entire endings of games less exciting (Minus Dallas wk 3 cuz BAL can't catch). Seems a poor trade. More touchbacks, less exciting endings according to the numbers being turned in.
If there's a three percent more scoring drives starting at the 30, assuming half are FGs and half are TDs, the risk a team takes by bouncing a kick inside the 20 is that the runback results in a FG or TD either within the play or resulting from a drive with much better field position. If this happens more than one out 6.5 times they try it, it's a losing strategy (again assuming equal numbers FGs and TDs). I think the end of the season will prove that it happens far more often than that because once in a while you get a great kick like the example but usually it will go out the sideline or be run back for good field position or a score. Soon everything will be driven through the back of the endzone and this becomes just another time waster. Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see.
Honestly I think the solution is to just get rid of touchbacks.
Make it so that if the ball lands in the end zone, you redo the kick.
That way they HAVE to kick a returnable ball.
If they wanted more run-outs, they should have made the TB be at the 25, where most special teams players would think "I can do better than _that!" Also, remove announcing you're making an on-side kick. That is stupid.
You have to go on Underdog’s Heed the Call and talk about this with Connor, Marc, and Dan.
The other element of the kicker takeover that I have a hypothesis about but haven't studied to confirm it is that offensive playcalling gets a lot more conservative leaguewide once teams get near their opponents' 35-40 yard line, at least in the first three quarters or so. If you don't get a first down there, it's fine because every kicker in the league except Justin Tucker can reliably boot 50+-yarders, and unless you're Dan Campbell or prime Brandon Staley, you're taking the points.
I'll be curious to see how the league adapts. I know 3-on-3 OT in hockey was an awesome addition for the first few seasons, until the teams just learned the play it safe and started circling back into their own zone constantly and just killing clock which kind of put a damper on what started as just all out action with so much more ice to play with.
@IssacPunts is definitely gonna love this video
This was a really good video, nice job
It’s going to be interesting to see how NFL teams adapt their fourth-down decision making to adjust for these kickoffs. Between a higher likelihood of big returns and the offense getting an extra 5 yards on touchbacks, it significantly increases the opposing offense’s chance of going down field and scoring 3 (or 7) - thus devaluing the 3 points that you get from a field goal. We just saw teams make some interesting calls to go for it on fourth down in the red zone early in games this past weekend, I think we might see that trend continue outside of game situations where teams need to take their 3 points.
Only if scoring somehow went up 20% or more. We might see a 5% bump
I was cautiously optimistic about the "dynamic kickoff"(corny) coming into the season - I'm legitimately excited about the outlook now after the first two weeks. The returns are really mixing up the starting field position, which I think is getting lost in all the "big return potential" talk. If a returner comes out with the ball, there's just as good of a chance that they're getting tackled 5+yds short of the 30 as there is of them getting to the 30, but we're also seeing returns that make it out 5, 10, 15 yards past the 30 too, so it's really mixing things up again. Lets just get that touchback changed from the 30 to the 35 next season like was originally proposed, and I think it'll be pretty solid.
Two consequences I propose the league allows from here:
Salary cap increase for players on special teams, meaning there’s basically an added cap that’s higher but only when that money is actually spent on ST players.
Secondly I think they will have to eventually open more roster spots for teams yet again on the condition that the spots are used for specialist players.
When special teams plays are no longer an after thought then teams should be allowed to strategize for them to the same extent as offense or defense.
Good on you for mentioning reverses on kickoffs, that’s how Antonio Brown got his very first “big” play in the NFL.
Just give it to the kicking team, 4th and 15 on your own 35. Most teams will punt most of the time, but occasionally it'll be worth it to go for it.. Plus you'll still have a chance to do fake punts.
I feel like the risk-reward on touchbacks arent properly calibrated. A "bounce-in" touchback should put the offense on their own 15 yard line instead of 20. Not only would you get more stats/numbers for offenses having to drive more yards to get to the endzone, but you would also get a lot more chances for the receiving team to be goalies on their goal-line to get to the ball and return it.
I think you have to compare epa from a landing zone kick vs epa from a kick in the endzone for an apples to apples comparison. Id be curious if once you account for returns in the landing zone if the epa is better for endzone kicks
Great video!!!
The problem with the new kick return isn't going to be the difference in touch back starting position affecting decisions, it's also compared to avg returned kick starting positions. Yes the coffin corner kick was great but an oblong shape bouncing right right way on you is not a high bet, especially as weather gets worse.
The real math is if kicks that are returned are on avg getting out beyond the 20, which hint they are, then at which avg return mark between 20 and 30 does the avoidance of the game turning play just always make sense over giving up an extra 1 -3 yards of starting position. Teams will try stuff this year sure, but as soon as too many big returns happen or even normal returns get too good we are right back where we were before. Only way you change it is by making all touch backs go out to a spot that nearly no normal return gets too like the 40 or 45, which is a massive competitive balance issue in its own right.
Why is it a competitive issue? If you don't want it to go to the 40, special teams coordinators should tell the kickers not to do touchbacks
This is the first video I've seen Brett look healthy in, in a long time.
The first person who can get a 8.0 hangtime ball that lands on the 10 is going to make a lot of money
AGREED how you ended this. I absolutely love the new kickoff. I hear constantly how people hate it on X and it's annoying, why? It's so much more fun than before. It really makes 3 phases of the game again.
Hi Brett
This was a really good video 🙂
I wonder if this will lead teams to have an extra kicker on their roster that might be better at this kicking format then the kicker that is you FG go to.
This kickoff would be be even more perfect if touchbacks went to the 40 instead of the 30. The return rate would be insane and essentially every kicker will have to adapt
💯
I personally think that goes too far in the other direction of disincentivizing touchbacks. Remember that the whole point of the change was to increase safety while making the kickoff more exciting, but at a certain point having too many returns reintroduces unnecessary injury risk and reduces variety in the play. A touchback is okay every now and then lol
@@TyaColoso what you are saying is we need to also start limiting plays on offense and defence because the more they play the more they are gonna get hurt.
Well, its time to get the cheerleaders involved. Maybe if they outcheer the other team you get to advance the ball 10 yards?
@@donsolos “I like pancakes”
“So you hate waffles?” 🤡🤡🤡
I’m merely talking about the leagues motivations for changing the kickoff doofus. I personally want the physicality back too so go stand on your soapbox elsewhere while the rest of us live in reality.
@@TyaColo I don't think that's a bad argument however that's where the strategy comes into play of trying to squib it on the landing zone before having it go in the endzone. Many people are predicting that sometime next year it's gonna go back to the old kickoff in it's return rate, cause 30 yards isn't even all that punishing and it doesn't take much effort - just launch it as as far as you can.
Brandon Aubrey is incredible
Heyyyy, you got Chis Broussard to cameo on your show! Big time now.
Idk it feels like the status quo in the NFL is to just do whatever reduces variance the most, even if it’s not the “best” decision. Pretty sure most teams will default to kicking it out of the end zone because there is 0 chance that that ball gets returned for a TD.
Yes, you can break down the stats and find out that doing that is not the ideal play, but it does in fact reduce variance on the play to 0. And that’s what matters most to NFL coaches.
Unless you have a good special teams or your opponent is terrible at it
madden once again setting the meta for the NFL , what a time to be alive
Edit: for those wondering the cheat motion that Mia does people in madden where doing it forever
That average yard thing doesnt work I feel like youd have to look at the distribution and median. Because a lot of scoring drives + a lot of 3 and outs will look like an average of 30 or so yards.
first things first on in the background lol
Man that bills kicker can fly
Bears special teams, defense, and offensive fire power is solid as hell! If only they had an average offensive line like they thought they had on paper before the season started 😢
Can we get a play for each team? Like for the hoodies. I’ve been wanting one of those hoodies for a while now but I’m not gonna walk around with a Minny Miracle hoodie as a saints fan, for example. Maybe do the play Brees broke the consecutive games with a TD, any Kamara Screen TD (rookie szn Bucs game, early career packers game, or the cowboys game from this weekend), or Meachem’s strip after Brees INT (although I understand how this wouldn’t make much sense on a hoodie). Also idk how you’d do special teams or defense but if you do, Gleason’s punt block or the SB onside kick
Also, I feel like the blocking scheme could be added to the hoodie
I would do touchbacks at the 10 and 40
Teams playing my team should ALWAYS kick into the landing zone because that 100% guarantees a holding or block in the back penalty. 100%.
The UFL warned us!