The Rise & Fall Of The Stolen Base In Major League Baseball - Is Analytics Ruining Everything??
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 ส.ค. 2024
- What happened to the amazing baserunners of the 60's, 70's and 80's who created havoc on the basepaths?? Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines and Vince Coleman come to mind instantly! This history goes into the rise & fall and rise & fall again of the stolen base in Major League Baseball and the recent rise in analytics which may be destroying the future of the stolen base! I hope you enjoy this video on the DECLINE of the STOLEN BASE in Major League Baseball.
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There should be a video: "What Analytics Has Ruined in Baseball". So far, the complete game pitcher and baserunning. Anything else?
Hi. I miss the stolen base! Much more exciting and fun. I love baseball, but I think all the analytics and computers take a lot of the fun out of it. I miss the organic, human game, as well as the excitment of the runners and attempted steals.
Rickey Henderson is my all time favorite player! I miss the steals!
It’s boring nowadays. Everyone swinging for the fences, way too many strikeouts.
Boring and frustrating. Expecting a whole game for something to happen and then a strikeout or a 3-run home run? Baseball is much more than those two options.
It is so interesting watching all the different trends in baseball interact. Certainly the increasing emphasis on offense through home runs has led to massively reduced steal attempts, but I think there's more to it. The steadily increasing average pitching velocity has surely played a role, and I would also imagine that greater emphasis on both pitcher and catcher mechanics has led to faster "pop times". All of those things make base-stealing harder, and much riskier especially for any player that doesn't have elite speed. Plus the fact that "speed" players are increasingly being concentrated into a few positions (mainly CF and SS, with some at RF, LF, and 2B) while the other positions tend to value raw power more, which limits how many fast baserunners can be in a lineup at once. Then there's also the issue that stealing bases requires getting on base in the first place. Of course OBP is highly valued by analytics, but the currently "fashionable" way to boost OBP is through drawing walks, not hitting for high average where elite speed often comes into play.
I suspect there will be at least a minor stolen base revival at some point - one or two small factors will change, and somebody will seize onto the opportunity. Maybe the slightly larger bases they've been testing out will make it to the majors and alter *the algorithm* just enough to make steals less risky.
This is a great video Erik. It is in videos like this that separate you from many baseball channels. Well done friend.
Fun Fact: Ken Griffey Jr has Rickey Henderson on his all-time team (Most runs scored in history)
The statistics show now that Catchers are there for offense, most do not have a strong & accurate arm. The SB % would be optimum to use to ones advantage now. Heck, the KC Royals won a WS on speed and contact hitting not too long ago.
I said this a while back on a video on the screwball, another lost art in the game. If there was any time to bring back base stealing, it'll be now. Most teams are used to being tentative on base stealing therefore if someone does make a steal attempt it would catch them off guard. Also Japan namely is full of predominantly smallball players I think some teams who would want to court a player from there and other would want to change their strategy to make sure the player in question would adapt well to the big leagues. Ichiro is textbook for this.
A small variable that may play into analytics is that Pitchers are throwing more high fastballs
Expanded playoffs are what might bring the stolen base back. Analytics are great for getting the most possible wins over a full season, but now you don't need as many wins to get to the playoffs. And once you're in the playoffs, teams that can do the additional "small ball" things have an edge when swinging for the fences isn't working, which happens much more often in the postseason.
Remember “steal a base and get a free taco at Taco Bell?”
Good times.
Let me put it to you like this. The Boston Red Sox have been around for over 100 years. The greatest single play in Sox history was a Stolen Base in 2004 by of all people. Dave Roberts.
So lucky to have witnessed Cal Ripken Jr's consecutive game streak, And Nolan Ryan throwing his 7th no hitter on the same day Rickey Henderson broke Lou Brock's stolen base record, and later Ryan striking out Henderson for his 5.000th strike out. These records will never be touched in the state of Baseball now. All 3 players can be argued the greatest of all time, but in my opinion Rickey Henderson was the most exciting player to watch. The best of hitters can be nullified by an intentional walk, but Henderson was and is the only hitter that you are better off pitching to than walking ( obviously exceptions like having a runner in front of him change this). I am sure many people can argue this, it is just my opinion and I mean no disrespect to any other player. ( Although the statement about these records never being broken are more fact then opinion). Analytics like pitch count, and making good old fashioned gut feelings extinct may make sense on paper, but they make watching the game of Baseball extremely less exciting. Side note: if Pete Rose passes away before being put into the HOF, I will never watch another baseball game again.
change that, hes the only, GOOD hitter your better of pitching to than walking, theres guys that you know for sure wont hit for shit if you pitch to them, so why let em on base
Thanks for a great video. Analytics can't touch rattling a pitcher, rallying a team , challenging a catcher...I love the stealing of the base, and let's not forget the bad azz catchers (Pudge Rodriguez, etc ) that had arms of steel, and could pick those runners off.
Jose Reyes was an absolute menace. He'd steal second, then steal third, and be so in the pitcher's head the batter often got a pitch lobbed up in the zone to score the run, or just get himself home on a balk. All of a sudden the Mets are up 1-0 with nobody out, the heart of the lineup coming up, and a visibly rattled pitcher all in just the first inning. God I miss real baseball.
Thank you for doing this, stolen bases are my favorite part of the game
Jose then Rocket was my favorite A and Will my favorite Giant. In the late 80’s this is how I become a fan as well as cards. I became a fan of both teams. Coleman and Raines were legit too. Of course Barry , Canseco and Bo could hustle.
The history of how baseball strategy evolves over time is interesting, which is why I don’t like when the MLB meddles with the rules to produce an outcome or type of play style that they like. Larger bases is a small change which is ok, but the the pick off limiting rules bother me because they interfere with the natural evolution of the game.
You can partially blame Bill James...his early " Baseball Abstracts " showed that, unless you were Rickey Henderson or Tim Raines...the risk( loss of potential multiple runs being scored versus just one run)was too high...but also the pitching in the 1950s-1969( until the mound was lowered) caused the rise...and the unique talents mentioned in the clip.
These days( partially due to James) everyone is swinging for the fences, the old " trying to steal distracts the hitter" line is overemphasized.
One thing to consider: if the pitching rubber is moved back a foot or two: will the extra split second it will take for the ball to get to the catcher change minds about stealing( the steal % would go up) just spitballing...
Replay is a point, though. The emphasis on holding the tag, and umps can't call safe automatically when the throw appears to be late is now gone
Bill James is an idiot that never played the game.. so he never understood it. He concluded the steal attempt wasn’t worth it because he was too uneducated and ignorant of baseball to know that just the threat of a steal plays havoc on the pitcher, catcher and defense and leads to hitters seeing more fastballs as well as pitch outs. Even if you lose an out trying to steal…. It was still worth it because of how much it forces the defense to account for the threat. Bill James is an accounting geek. He is not a baseball man in any way
Yes I want the steals back into baseball. I miss the Running Redbirds of the 80s. I watched Vince Coleman steal home as a normal routine. But then the outfield walls started to come in. And fans wanted homeruns. With the rest of the changes in the last 20 years, I think stolen bases are the rare option now. Analytics ruined the charm of baseball.
Small-Ball and fundamental baseball was the norm in the 1980s and up to the mid-1990s!! Analytics and the overreliance in home runs hitting was what pretty much killed stealing bases!!
Love Ricky Henderson!!
Me too friend.
Ricky Henderson is the reason I watch baseball.
and cant even spell his name right
Personally, I would love some team to throw the math out the window.
You'd think it would still be used today, if for nothing else than to upset a pitcher's rhythm.
Great point friend. Stealing bases puts alot of pressure on the pitcher and like you said will mess with their rhythm. Also many catchers are not so great at throwing them out.
For a number of years when the first Billy Hamilton played, a stolen base was given if a runner on first made it to third on a single.
If Mantle and the Yankees had stolen to steal more, he would have easily been in the 30-30 club.
I hated stolen bases because as a Giants fan, they were always against us. I used to yell at Boche...send him, send him. But alas, there went the double play, inning over. I would love to see more stolen bases as I am an advocate of small ball. Homeruns are very cool, but a triple gets me more excited. Doesn't seem Kap is much of a stolen base proponent, either. I hope that changes.
Please don't call it smallball Lynda. I believe that the term you're looking for is Baseball.
@@gerrypellissier9551 Good point. Home run derbies are not as much fun as a base at a time.
@@lyndarocha8846 I remember a game back in the day, when Aubrey Huff hit 2 triples in the same game. I thought that an EMT was going to be called after the second one. LOL
@@gerrypellissier9551 haha almost as bad as when the Panda hit a triple. But so much fun. If that was 10...what a magical year.
@@lyndarocha8846 It was for me Lynda. I've been a Giants fan for a long time and 2010 was worth waiting for. The final game was on MLB Network last week. Loved it.
Honorable mention: Ron Leflore stole some bags in the late 70’s.
He stole 97 bases for Montreal; no clue why they let him walk as a free agent except maybe his defense. I'm old enough to remember his time w/ Detroit before his lone Expos season.
You are right. One day a guy will steel 80+ bases and the game will change again. Great video😃
But will any of us be alive to see it?
Most everyone here seems to have the same opinion, analytics are kinda sucking all the fun and excitement out of the game. I hope some front office personnel somewhere read some of these comments and take them serious. Just look at attendance around the league. Most teams struggle to fill half a stadium on a regular basis. Bring some excitement back into the game and maybe more of us will be willing to fork over the $ for those overpriced tickets.
its interesting, because analytics have made baseball more fun in some aspects for me, in the fact that i love looking for cool stats, and finding interesting stuff, but watching the sport has certaintly became less fun
Base stealing is such a dead art. Makes the game very exciting. Helps runners score on hits instead of HR or bust. Analytics isn’t entirely bad but it’s too much at this point and that’s the biggest problem with the game today.
Great video!
Dont have to worry about it anymore. They changed the rules and now it's easier to steal than ever before. stolen base totals increased by nearly 1,000, and players are breaking SB records which haven't been touched in 30 years. Fun time.
Lou Brock wasn't fast.... he was 36 year old when he stole 136 bases? Crazy these days when your 36 you don't steal 10 bases let alone 100+. Lou Brock was really good at reading pitchers. He wasn't gifted with blazing speed like Vince Coleman, Rickey Henderson, or Tim Raines?
Players are bigger these days? The steriods they give livestock we eat and don't even know it have changed humans over the past 40-60 years. Usually when you fill out you lose range, or speed? What good is a stolen base when you can not get thrown out and have 40 home run Aaron Judge hit a 2 run home run? So much about the game has changed, you can't really even have a LOOGY guy with the 3 out minimum?
Not surprise baseball’s network ratings are way down. Home run or strike out. Guys are putting the ball in play less and less these days. Base stealers are fun to watch and add excitement to the game. Its bad enough most game are 3-4 hours long as is having the runners move on the bases could be what baseball needs to boost ratings and generate some excitement to whats becoming a very boring sport to watch.
Would base stealing cause more injuries or add more wear to the body? Is there a science study behind it?
YES MOAR STEEEEEELS!
BS Analitycs are Killing Baseball. The Game is PLAYED in the field, not in an office in front of a computer.
at the start of the vid you show a lot of the cards running on the mets.. as a mets fan i dont need the reminder,,,, why im watching this,,, henderson even did a season with the mets
Dude those algorithm bits lol
Luis Aparicio 🇻🇪
Davey Lopes was an incredible base stealer.
His ratio of steals to caught stealing was the best by a mile. At the age of 40 he stole 47 bases in 90-something games for the Cubs and was caught stealing...four times.
I wonder if the increase of the size of the bases will encourage more base stealing. 🤔
Analytics have ruined the game
How many times did Ty Cobb steal home? Baseball has become very very boring...I love it but it needs to have more action again...Not walk, homerun, or strikeouts!
How can you forget maury wills
Well it did happen again
Hodus Wagner? good one
I didn't say that did I? I am well aware of who Honus Wagner is.. sometimes pronunciations come out funny but trust me I know how to say Honus Wagner.
@@HummBabyBaseball th-cam.com/video/cxjw-w-V5k4/w-d-xo.html
Man if Vince didn't get hurt..
The 2022 Dodgers.
mets lead off nimmo will not steal it drives me nuts
cause hes not good at is, 23/37, 62%, well below the 75% which is supposd to be helping your team
Disagree completely. It's not analytics, it's money. Use the olympics for comparison: Would anyone watch the olympics, would TV pay billions in broadcasting rights, if they knew that nobody would break any world records? No. If the olympics were clean, no drugs or other enhancements and records were never touched, nobody would watch. The same goes for baseball. People want BIG numbers, BIG homerun and RBI totals. They don't care about batting averages, steals and runs scored, things that actually win games. Unless baseball cleans up the game of PEDs, that won't change. Baseball already has the oldest average age fan of the five major leagues (it's boomerball now, not baseball), and giving young fans no reason to watch.
There's an easy fix that would reduce home runs, get rid of drugs from baseball, bring back contact hitters, bring back base stealers, bring back knuckleball pitchers, mean fewer pitching changes, AND would speed up the game. It would be easy to implement, but the owners would never agree to it because "macho" crap like homeruns and strikeouts sell. What is it?
Enlarge the strike zone. Make it the size in the rulebook: 36 inches high and 18 inches wide for EVERY batter. If batters can't focus on a tiny space, they'll have to become more flexible and hit singles and for average. Steals will be needed to increase runs. Pitchers will no longer need to throw fire to get outs (no need for PEDs), which means they stay in the game longer. Forget "quality starts", bring back complete games.
Pitching changes are THE BIGGEST cause of time wasting and slow the game. The "pitch clock" DOES NOT solve the core issue of managers travelling to the mound twice per pitcher and four pitchers per game. Another bonus: Speed is cheap. Junkball pitchers are cheap. Owners could build winning teams for less money, but obviously the owners aren't smart enough to understand or grasp this concept.
Base stealing could be risky too because if the guy on first base tries to steal second base and his out, and the guy at-bat hits a single he would of advance to second base but since he got out, because the runner was trying to steal second base that opportunity is gone same goes when a guy at second is tries to steal third base, I think thats why a lot of teams don't steal that much bases anymore because of the risk.
Sorry I wrote this comment before seeing the whole video, and they mention this.
First, great video humm baby!
The lack of black players
Look i stopped watching baseball after players stopped stealing bases it used to be electrifying used to motivated the team especially if they needed a pick-up because they playing horrible what happened to all the Dawgs.
Major League Baseball is ruining baseball
Yes it is. The game is unwatchable now.
Today baseball is garbage!!!!!!!!!! Period!!!!!!!!!!
i like it
Not sure how or why you would make a video about base stealing and not mention Lou Brock. Do you really know baseball or are you just a guy who looks at analytics?
im just a guy who looks at analytics and im always impressd by the insane stats of lou brock, 2nd most mlb stolen bases, 3rd in the world
Lou was all in the video...did you see Lou, Lopes. Wills ?
Do they have analytics if a player takes a crap more than once on game day. Does he have more hits ?
Great video!