EV Makers in DEEP TROUBLE! Only Tesla Might Survive!
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 22 ก.พ. 2024
- A terrifying graph from AJ on x shows just how bad things are ALL EV makers except Tesla right now in terms of free cash flow! Whether you're an investor or a consumer, you need to consider just how challenging it will be for these companies to survive the next few years.
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Source post: / 1760682588258349424 - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
![[MPD직캠] 베이비몬스터 직캠 8K 'SHEESH' (BABYMONSTER FanCam) | @MCOUNTDOWN_2024.4.25](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/QHf-2xSJzYE/mqdefault.jpg)
The mainstream media would never show this chart !!
Of course they wouldn't. It contains zero interesting information!!
Ask them to, and besides I consider YT to be MSM.
People like you and me abandoned Main Stream Media years ago... They are increasingly irrelevant.
YT is then MSM🙄🙄
Yes because it doesn't mean jack.
Investor since 2016. Bought my first tesla model 3 SR+ in June 2019. Since then I bought a 2023 model Y LR. Then I bought a 2023 model YP and transferred my fsd from the model 3. Then I sold the model 3. I've been all ev since Feb 2023. I'll never go back to gas. My snow blower, chain saw and weed Wacker are all electric. I still have a gas riding mower. Once it dies, that will be electric too
Good luck living in Soylent Green.
😂 u should buy a solar farm..
Soyboypat
What electric mower would you go for? I like the Ego Power ones, but they're too big for my shed.
@@DavidPeck-DP ego, but haven't looked at others yet
I don't want an EV; I want a Tesla. I want to buy into the ecosystem. I can get a solar panel array installed on my house, get a Tesla Powerwall and a Model X and have that sustainable loop of energy from sun to car and I won't have to go to a gas station anymore. People want Tesla and not necessarily EVs from companies who are half-heartedly throwing out product without a dedicated infrastructure and ecosystem.
Nailed it. I bought a model X in 2016. I still own it. Never have had it serviced. I own a lot of cars… A7, BMW X5M series, 2 Mercedes, Maserati and an Aston Martin. All of them get serviced twice a year, but my Tesla. Best damn car I have ever owned. I did not expect that when I bought it. The media had me thinking otherwise. Yeah, I use to believe the media and the reports, but it’s all bought and paid for buy anyone advertising. I should know, I own an advertising agency for over 25 years. I buy media and hire writers to write columns for columnists. I didn’t think the FUD was this bad. It’s brutal.
Joe Public doesn't understand that the base model Y is around $37,000 out the door.
Found the apple user. You are right though people don't want EVS they want Teslas.
I agree completely. General Motors made a great EV and proceeded to grind them all up.😢😢😢
Yep, I have a MY, last year installed solar panels and Tesla Powerwalls at home and now drive for free.
This situation is normal in the car industry. It was never easy to mass produce or to mass market. In 1958 my uncle bought a Borgward. Great car but they went bankcrupt 3 years later. In those years there were dozens of manufacturers, most of whom don't exist anymore. In Germany you had DKW, Auto Union, Gogomobil, Glas, Lloyd, etc.
In the EV-world it's just the same. Survival of the fittest. Shake-out.
So if you really have the patience of a saint, you should buy a Lucid or Fisker and put it in a barn for 50 years. Your kids will thank you.
@@hardyvonwinterstein5445 But only put a fisker in your barn if you have decent fire insurance. Wouldn't trust them with anything.
We had a few Borgward Isabellas in our town in NZ.
@@Longtack55What? How did they get there?
Please tell me Gogomobil was popular with strippers!
Another take on this very helpful graph is the it's a large part of what the traditional OEMs are looking at and concluding they absolutely need to milk what they can of the their ICE (where are already established) for as long as they can. Going "pure EV" for them would certainly be a very bad idea right until the time their hands are forced.
Longer they wait the worse it gets
9 billion in regulations credit paid to Tesla. The super charger network won’t be caught. They’ll all be paying licensing for the tech for their existence.
Nick ford is absolutely correct. The longer they wait the more difficult is gets. Think of a marathon. You can’t just let the field run off and wait 20 minutes before you start running because you have some other race to run. But hey, I’m a good runner so I should be able to jump into the marathon and expect to get a medal. Doesn’t work that way. EVs are a highly evolving technology. You are either participating and learning, or you aren’t. By the time GM gets around to being all in, the technology has changed multiple times. They are setting themselves up for building old tech. Not a wise strategy for the long term. Will certainly work short term, which is what most CEOs and Boards are all about. They will make their money, know when to bail, and leave a lot of fools to go down with the ship.
Where have you been? The ICE companies have been forced ever since 2020 and the thugs in the EPA have been threatening them. Look up the scandal reported by CarCoach and how auto makers were given a choice: pay billions in fines or millions in losses. In case you don't have the ability of critical thinking, this means the EPA knew EV's weren't going to sell but manufactures made them because it was "cheaper" than the fines. EV's including Tesla aren't selling and many who bought them have buyers remorse. Many others can't admit they made a mistake.
@@nickford5549 If there is any "milking" going on it is a result of ICE auto makers having to offset losses for producing EV's that 1.) are expensive to produce 2.) NO ONE WANTS THEM. If there were no mandates, they wouldn't be making them at all and be stuck with thousands of unsold EV's on dealer lots. Just FYI, this includes Tesla - they aren't selling either. What's going to get worse is the massive depreciation of EV's and continued crash of demand.
Put solar on my house in 2017. Decided I needed to find more things to plug in since electricity was now coming from the sun. Bought my first Tesla in August 2019. After experiencing the car, opened a brokerage account and bought Tesla stock. Added another solar system in Jan 2020. Replaced our other gas car with the MY LR in March 2020. Solar systems have passed break even already because of gasoline savings. Not planning on back to gas but would find it hard to purchase anything but a Tesla at this point in time. For the reason you mention but also because of the charging infrastructure. Don’t use it much but without superchargers as an option it’s a totally different experience.
I know my ICE vehicle won't lose range every time I fill it with gas.
@@richardweyland116fair enough. I know that by the time my Tesla battery degrades enough to matter to me I will have saved enough in gasoline purchases to just about pay for my next Tesla.
So many of us have no desire to own an EV, there are too many negatives, over priced, poor charging infrastructure, high insurance costs, battery fires, battery longevity, real world range, no good for towing, performance in very cold weather etc…sorry, I don’t see EV’s as the future.
The truth is that for those who can charge at home most of those negatives don't matter. Battery fires are rare, gas cars burn more often. If you can get Tesla insurance you're laughing, otherwise insurance is costly. Batteries are lasting longer than most vehicles. But you're right about the towing...
Have you been living under a rock? A Model Y for $37K is superior to a Rav4 and cheaper. Tesla charging is everywhere. Insurance is not higher. Tesla has < 1/10 the fires than gas cars. Battery has 90% retention at 200K miles. I have zero problem with range. I have more range than bladder capacity. Y tows 3500 pounds. What is very cold weather? Tesla is the most popular car in Norway. It's cold there. I have rooftop solar and free lifetime Supercharging and drive for FREE.
I remember hearing "Tesla's #1 advantage is that it doesn't have to compete with Tesla." That's so true - Tesla had a fresh market where people were willing to pay top dollar for EVs with pretty poor build quality and no assurance the company would be around for long. So you can't look at that graph and say that these other companies will start turning profitable eventually like Tesla did, as they'll be competing against a ton of incumbents with third, fourth, and fifth generation EVs being produced by big player grabbing all the batteries for cheap prices and with dialed-in factories, customer recognition, distribution networks, etc. That's a much bigger hill to climb than Tesla had to.
Most of those cars with"pretty poor build quality" are still on the road. Try to buy a broken Tesla.
@@tedmoss I just meant panel gaps, lose bits, windows that don't roll down properly, that kind of thing. Annoyances that early buyers had to put up with. The core of the vehicles - batteries, electronics, motors etc were all always great.
It’ll be harder because while people say Tesla poor build quality and worry about the little things. Teslas do ALL of the major things better, more consistently, and reliably then the other ev makers. They also have service that comes to you, updates regularly, the best, most, and cheapest charging network, and not only does the Tesla do being in EV great it does being a tech piece great as well. Most EV’s just aren’t doing that they may look better but when it comes to the major things they don’t stand with the Tesla. Then they have to sell cheaper than they want because of Tesla which is killing them as well
The problem for traditional car manufacturers is they market themselves on the look and feel of the car panel gaps, door clunk noises, minimal trim rattles. The body shells are fabulous. However the underlying engineering struggles everything from weak cam chains to sooted up valves and peeling cylinder liners. They struggle.
I love your logic. You found a parameter that seems to correlate and you concluded causation!
What about market maturity (how many potential customers would consider an ev? if the product is good and as it progresses from nuance to mainstream, potential customers should grow parabolically), what about infrustructure (number of chargers)? what about cost of technology (i.e. battery prices have been falling despite inflation), what about financial insentives and mandates.
By your logic, EVs should be a certain failure
70% of my stocks money is in TSLA. I'm patient and have a high risk tolerance.
The only car I'll ever buy, will likely be a Tesla.
Its a De ep St ate company so your money is safe - it will never be allowed to go bust.
@@xraylife Wait till the carbon credits go away.
Tesla stock was a good buy ten years ago because if you wanted a luxury EV in the US Tesla was it. Now there are multiple high quality EVs available. Tesla’s net profit per car is going steadily downward. Tesla used to never advertise now they do. Tesla is becoming just another car company. I’m not saying Tesla will go bankrupt but I don’t really see the stock going to the moon either.
@@larryo6874 Imo, Tesla still controls a huge percent of the EV market. In the US, there aren't any other high quality EVs available, but in Europe there are. Tesla's production costs are far lower than anyone else's. In these ways, Tesla is not "just another car company". Other car companies are in deep trouble, and will be for the foreseeable future.
Teslas net profit is related to the lower prices: prices nobody else can compete with. This implies other companies will not catch up until they re-tool their factories, which will take years.
Tesla advertises only because Gary and a few others begged them to. I think advertising is a good thing. Can't hurt. But their advertising is minimal, even now. It's not a huge driver of sales.
In the short term, I'm sure you're right in that Tesla is probably going to hover around this level for a year or more. The trouble is, nobody's crystal ball is perfect, and if it does start rising, it'll be too late to try to jump in. Chasing a stock higher is generally not a good idea.
Several catalysts are on the horizon, which will make Tesla go significantly higher over the never few years:
1. Interest rates start going lower will push the stock higher both because high interest rates tend to depress all stocks, and Tesla will be able to raise prices once again.
2. The Teslabot will reduce Tesla's, already industry-busting low production, costs to new lows. Nobody can compete already. Reducing costs will solidify Tesla margins and market share.
3. The "$25k" BEV will blow away ICE competition, and almost certainly outsell the current best-selling car in the world, the Model Y, by a huge margin.
4. Once BEVs are priced significantly lower than ICE cars, it'll be nuts to buy an ICE car, so Tesla (still an industry leader) will dominate the market.
5. If FSD ever becomes a reality, that's almost 100% margin on a $10kish software product. A tiny bit speculative, but at the rate it's learning, it should be able to attain at least a geo-fenced full FSD capability.
Some of these will take time. Some may never happen. But the odds are good at least some of them will hit, and Tesla will rise quickly, as soon as any one of them does.
So the upside, while not guaranteed, is quite promising. The worst it's likely to do, even if none hit, is stay about where it is. Great upside possibilities and minimal downside risk is generally a good strategy.
If you can stomach the wild swings, Tesla's risk/reward profile is very promising. If you're risk-averse, it might not be such a good idea. If you're retiring soon (or already) and you need stability to survive, then Tesla is probably a bad idea. If you're young and therefore can afford to wait, it's probably a very good bet.
Everyone's situation is different, though, so everyone needs to make up their own mind, taking into account their own, unique situation. Don't base your investment decisions on some yahoo on the internet ;)
@@richardweyland116 The credits are only just over 2% of Tesla's revenue. Even without the credits, Tesla's margins are the best in the industry. So, if Tesla has to worry, then the other car makers have much more to worry about.
Additionally, as legacy carmakers are currently slowing down their EV production, they'll be paying credits for years to come. So don't hold your breath for them to go away any time soon. It'll take a few years before GM and Ford have any chance of catching up, so the credits are safe until then.
Another problem facing the legacy automakers is their debt interest!
Won’t the gov’t just keep propping up Ford and GM like they’ve done in the past thus emaverting bankruptcy?
@@jkimo1178 they propped them up because they don’t want to loose the automotive industry. Government love to get the union votes so I can see that might happen but eventually they just can’t operate.
Don't be misled when you see that companies like Ford or GM have $150 billion of debt. That debt isn't due to the company's manufacturing operations. Instead, it is the money they borrowed from banks to finance car loans to customers. So the customers are the ones paying back the debt (including the interest) as they repay their car loans, not Ford or GM.
Its car loan debt that they make more money on relending than they do from the cars themselves.
Tesla came very close to bankruptcy. If that time around Model 3 launch would have been around the time the fed started to combat inflation, Tesla would have been toast. So there is a significant role of luck here. That is often underappreciated.
You make your own luck.
@@tedmossluck is not effort. if two frogs jump exactly the same distance but one lands in a well, no amount of effort may be sufficient to get out.
@@ivanobulo😂
"The harder I work, the luckier I get"...
Famous quote from South African golfer Gary Player.
It's called being 1st mover + investors trust level + market leading scaling
My last car, a Pontiac G5, lasted 17 years, 12 of which I owned it. In the US, this same car is called a Chevy Cobalt. It cost me 8400 Canadian dollars, so $700 per year, which is a lot less than the cost of insurance. The biggest repair was about $1600 to replace the suspension. I can't see getting that good of a value with an electric vehicle. Someone close to me, who will remain anonymous, smashed it up a month ago, so I had to replace it. I bought a 10-year-old Dodge Journey, which is in extremely good shape, for $13600 Canadian. It uses about twice as much gas as my old Pontiac G5, but I am still very happy with it so far.
I bought a fully loaded MX in June 2016 sight unseen (no test drives available) at the ridiculous price of $144k. At that time, Musk said that we were not paying simply for our car, but rather we were giving Tesla a lifeline to produce the M3. 8 years and 90k miles later and our X is still our daily car. I will NEVER trade-in that car.
I was living in Hilo Hawaii in 2007. I purchased a new Chevy Silverado. In 2008 the financial crisis happened. GM closed the only Chevy dealer on the island. It really threw me for a loop. I just a couple of years, I moved back to CA and brought my truck with me, but I'll never forget what a bummer that was to be abandoned by my car co.
GM, by law, does not own dealerships. Like many stores at that time, your dealer went out of business.
Both of you forget that Obama ORDERED GM dealers to close, divisions to be sold off, Chrysler to sell their soul to Fiat, etc.
Well doc, I retired early (at 55 y.o.) in 2007 from Ford Motor Company and at that time we invested $10K into Apple. In late 2019, we sold all that Apple stock to invest in Tesla. Tesla went up in value and we sold enough shares to pay for a 2022 Tesla Model X Plaid. As I write this, our remaining Tesla shares are valued at over one million dollars...and as a 72 year old, I expect to stay alive at least three more years to acquire a Lit Motors C-1, which I've preordered.
Invested since 2012 so I felt all the pain but know my confidence was always there with their execution I just didn't understand the stock price during that time none of the other companies have interested me enough to invest in
I envy you... since 2012 your investment value has increased many times. I bought 100 shares (pre-split) in 2017, and while I have no intention of selling, if I found myself in financial sh1t, I'd be more than OK cashing in my TSLA.
Coo Coo Canoo, my little Canoo, Where R U 🙂
It's pretty much down to the battery now. If battery costs can drop quickly enough, I think a number of these BEV startups can survive. U.S. tariffs and other requirements are certainly not helping the BEV industry, though.
electric mobility in general is still too expensive, even all the way down to skateboard-style and moped-style scooters, e-bikes, and enclosed trikes. Much of that expense leads straight to the battery at the heart of these vehicles. And the same is true all the way up the chain to full-sized BEVs.
-Matt
BYD not on the graph?
BYD started with ice cars and transition to electric and hybrid cars they also make battery aka blade battery
BYD is not in the US.
Thanks for the vid. Bought my Model X mid-2017. I was concerned about company longevity, but wanted to do my part to accelerate transition to sustainable energy. Started buying stock in 2019 after watching episodes of Tesla Daily- have never regretted either decision.
I bought our 1st TSLA in 2017. Quantity 7 at about $250 since then of course we did a 5 split and then a 3 split which means those shares are now 105 shares worth $21,000 depending on the day.
Lucid lost *$42,000* per car from the 9000 it delivered by paying CEO Rawlinson $375 million in compensation.
I think you are off by a factor of 10! I also think there 2023 deliveries topped out in the 6 to 7 k range. Lucid Lost $433,000 For Every Car It Sold In Q3, Reports $2.17 Billion In Losses So Far This Year. California-based automaker Lucid reported third quarter results on Tuesday, and the numbers aren't great. The company announced that it built 1,550 Air sedans in Q3, and delivered 1,456 to customers.Nov 13, 2023
@@craiggrant5509 The ~$42K per car is only Rawlinson's individual contribution to Lucid's total loss per car. Taking huge profits _before_ he's showing results. Many CEOs work for $0 until their company is profitable.
@@craiggrant5509 You're right, but the comment was to highlight that $42k per car was the cost of Rawlinsons pay package alone
Of course EV only startups will all need very deep pockets to survive, and most will not, but companies like BYD (plus several other Chinese "legacy" manufacturers) will easily survive, and those others that are transitioning well such as Hyundai/Kia and VW will also be around for a long time.
The key for many of these is the certainty of their home market going fully EV over the next few years, so they have no choice.
The unique politics of the US means that local manufacturers are nowhere near going all in on EV's, and there is a similar situation in Japan, but for both countries, their day of reckoning is coming as sales of ICE vehicles to places such as China and the EU vanish as they will no longer be allowed to be sold in that market.
I invested in Tesla at the 2010 IPO because I believed in the company and Elon and its mission statement and Master Plan. I was never concerned about the ups and downs because I love its products and felt that they would ultimately succeed as they have done. I am currently on my 4th Tesla vehicle starting with the 2012 MS and currently drive a 2022 MSLR. We just ordered a M3 Highland to replace my wife's much loved 2018 M3. I also purchased Google stock at IPO and still own all my shares in both companies.
Would love to see a chart like this for ICE OEMs
In on Tesla and BYD the only 2 I am confident will be here in 5-10 years. Irrespective of the BEV brand to go 300 mile in my gasser is ~$75 to do the same in a BEV is about ~$7 dollars at the overnight rate. Almost all gassers are toast, only in some fringe cases will they survive. Shorting Mazda now?
I have been saying this for years, RJ SCARINGE is a sh-tty business man. He makes $4M a year and is comfortable. He’s doing twice as bad as TESLA ever was and he’s not sleeping on the factory floor. Steels trade secrets and has the Tesla playbook and still drives the company into the ground. F-brutal.
Being way too harsh, I think. Not Elon Musk is not the same as sh ty. RJ found a decent niche for Rivian and selling 50,000 in a year is pretty good at this point in the production ramp. Yes, losing money super fast, but they are in a world where Tesla sets market prices and Tesla has huge scale of production and efficiency of production advantages. When Tesla was at this point in ramping, Tesla had no competition and within reason could charge what they needed to.
Also, weirdly, Rivian having had eighteen billion dollars while Tesla was severely undercapitalized for many years might be a disadvantage for Rivian. Tesla had to desperately find every possible way to cut costs of production, and increase the rate of production, or they would die, for many years. Rivian has been able to be much less careful with costs and that may be a bad thing in the end.
@@tribalypredisposed The only difference is Rivian was never on a level playing field, they didn't have Elon.
@@tedmoss i noted that not being Elon Musk is a big difference, and it should be obvious that Musk is singularity talented as an entrepreneur and that means other people are not as good as it as Musk is, without being sh ty.
But there are lots of other differences. Rivian started production twelve years later in a market with Tesla and many others making EVs, while Tesla had almost a decade with no competition and longer before seeing any serious competition. Tesla could come to market with a very rudimentary Roadster at a very high price, Rivian had to have a vehicle with luxury level UI and features and quality to start, which is much harder.
Going forward, Tesla had a guaranteed mass market hit for the Model 3, huge demand existed and no good long range mass market priced EVs were available. Rivian has no guarantees with their R2 that they can find 300,000 buyers per year in 2027, there will be lots of similar size and features and price cars available.
Can Rivian compete on price and quality with Tesla in 2027? And make a profit? And with BYD? It is hard to see how.
@@tribalypredisposed exactly. For all the points you mentioned, RIVIAN is fucked
@@tribalypredisposed RIVIAN R1T will never be profitable unless they remove complexity. Scaringe just doesn’t understand this or doesn’t want to understand it. He designed a $120k truck and sellling if for $90k. 90% of the entire effort of scaling production to 250k units a year is in the last 10% of the scale. RIVIAN is no where near that. They lack focus with launching a 4th EV and none of them are remotely profitable or are even seen to be profitable for years ahead, if ever.
I was not aware in what bad shape all other EV manufacturers are...
Where is BYD on the graph?
My son is an EE and bought a 2019 model 3 because he researched it and lives near Fremont, CA. Turned out to be a great buy with 75K miles with no problems. So we bought a 23 model 3 and my son bought his wife a new model Y!!
Thanks for sticking your fellow American with a bill for your car. Unthinking creep.
"ONE to rule them all!": as it should be to insure an efficient, sustainable, cost effective, autonomous and safest single OEM to supply the base chassis w/ sensors to everyone else! Leave the "brand" to the "advertisers"!
Most companies have similar curves of sunk investment/expenditures before they can turn a profit. Even little home startups typically need tools and supplies and generate a product, pictures made, verbiage written, etc before you can sell something on eBay or Etsy or garage sale as a 'low cost of entry' market. The risk is less but so is the reward. That is part of why you use investors and 'other peoples money' for the big ticket ventures. As always, don't bet more than you can afford to loose.
And don't bite off more than you can chew.
But money is much more expensive now than 10 years ago
Invested in 2020, and honestly only because I wasn’t really aware of Tesla before then.
Bought my Y LR, Shanghai special, in Dec 22 at almost the peak price.
Love the car, but today not so much - I’ve got a damaged headlight and I’ve heard that if Tesla say it’s not a warranty repair it’ll cost £1670, and I just cannot get my head round that!
Doesn't Vinfast also make ICE vehicles?
Nothing can tell a story like a simple but complete graph !
Interesting graph from AJ. To be fair, the graph would need to take inflation into account to try to compare directly between different companies operating at different times (don't know if it does this). Also there seems to be something strange with the timelines - e.g. the graph says years since inception and shows Rivian currently at about 6 years since inception and Tesla at about 14 years. Tesla was founded in 2003 and Rivian was founded in 2009 (so we are currently at 21 years for Tesla and 15 years for Rivian). It also shows Lucid currently at about 4.5 years since inception when the company was founded in 2007. So not sure how the graph defines 'inception' - is it when the company first published accounts that are available publicly?
Could it be years since producing first production vehicle?
I bought my Model 3 in late 2018. Tesla was struggling to stay afloat. I started buying stock in mid 2018. By that time, it seemed clear Tesla would figure out a way to make it work. Later, Elon said they were close to bankruptcy and in "production hell". I knew about the hell, but not the bankruptcy fears. Oh well, it worked out fine.
Part of the reason I bought Tesla was that I had missed the Amazon and Facebook successes, so was on the lookout for the Next Big Thing. My mindset was well primed to buy the next one I saw. And it was Tesla.
Aptera will make its debut within a year. They have a winning chance at getting to profitability in record time. Bucking the trend and taking a spot next to Tesla as the only profitable EV builders.
Im heavily invested in Tesla & I own a Model3. Im not invested in Rivian but I own an R1S.
I invested in Aptera because it has a unique niche, zero competition because it is a paradigm shift in efficiency. Tesla is focusing on production efficiency, but that is not same. Aptera is by far the lowest energy consumption/mile and with some needs may not be plugged in. I couldn't imagine a better transport for an "outlier", a self-sufficient person.
You make very good points. The EV start-ups are trying to follow Tesla's path, but they have to compete with Tesla to do so. That path is history and they need to find their own road. Legacy auto wants to use ICE paradigms on their EVs and produce cars that are behind the tech curve. Furthermore, their dealerships don't want anything to do with EVs. The only legacy manufacturer that seems committed to building a real EV is the Hyundai/Kia/Genesis group.
I think this trend is the same for all new car start up irrespective of EV or ICE?
BYD chart would also be interesting
Not a surprise -- 'pure EV makers' are basically tech start-ups and possibly all will go broke. You would expect the existing car makers to have the market share and cashflow to establish their EV segments alongside their petrol/diesel production (not literally 'alongside' as most would have a separate EV division and green-field manufacturing plant). So Tesla might be the only pure-EV company that survives to compete with the EV lines of Toyota, Kia, VW etc.
No BYD data available?
or SAIC
They’re not in the US.
@@worawatsr9803neither is nio or expeng…
As Elon said, prototype is easy, production is hard and mass production is extremely hard. Tesla is a good benchmark for the others. In 2015 it produced 50k cars. It reached mass production of 350k cars in 2019 when it achieved small profit and free cash flow. Most of the accumulated losses were between 2015 and 2019 when Tesla was trying to shift to mass production. The scary part is that most of these companies haven’t even reached 50k production. Rivian has just reached it but with much bigger losses. It would be interesting to see how much more losses it will take for Rivian to reach mass production. The question is whether 350k will be enough to be profitable and have positive free cash flow. Pricing pressures are substantially worse today and Rivian has worse cost control than Tesla did. Lucid isn’t even close to proving they can produce 50k cars a year. Interesting times ahead.
Tesla global sales doesn't even reach GMs US sales
@@jeffsteyn7174its not about the sales, its about the bottom line.
So it is easy to see who will fail.
@@jeffsteyn7174I know but your comment has nothing to do with the question posed. I am focused on what are potential target levels to reach production and mass production to understand when these companies can be profitable and have positive free cash flow.
The most important thing that EVs do is reduce air pollution where people breathe but this is mostly ignored.
The irony is that Tesla is NOT an "EV car maker".
Tesla is a robotics and technology company. Right now, their main robot has 4 wheels and behaves "like a car"... only FAR better.
In 2016 I bought an MX, and was already all in in TSLA. Just told myself that they may run out of cash but that Apple or someone would buy them.
I'm just crazy...
- Own a Tesla Model 3 Performance
- Own two Tesla Powerwalls
- Own SpaceX Starlink
Great
Shocking!!
Where is BYD?
If you listened, they make ICE cars too so not on the chart.
BYD is not a pure EV maker.
They mess with fanboys hopium charts
@@jeffsteyn7174Stated straightaway this is just for pure EV makers. Try watching before trolling.
@@8260christianBut they make more pure EV than Tesla
What do you think of Canoo?
ps. rather than 'years since inception' I would have thought a thousands of units produced x-axis would have been a better normalisation of the data? Not all the EV companies would be implementing their models and production facilities at the same rate, but economies of scale should be roughly similar, so plotting cashflow vs cumulative unit production would make the data more comparable.
Most auto manufactures are now promoting plugin hybrids which many argue to be the best/worst of both worlds. I consider it to be the worst of both worlds. If the plugin hybrids has a 30+ mile electric range that is used prior to the use of gas, that would probably reduce yearly average fuel usage by around 80% for most households; however, this assumes owners plug them in which studies show most do not. Since many households have two or more vehicles, owners could use a BEV for the majority of their driving needs and an ICE vehicle for long road trips until they hopefully get over range/charger anxiety.
I like Li Auto's approach. Full BEV, but with a gas-powered generator to charge the battery when it gets too low. Not the same as a hybrid, and makes a lot more sense.
They're not arguing that PHEVs are the solution because they are, but because they stink at making BEVs AND can't sell them. GM is now arguing for PHEVs though they currently make NONE of them and haven't for 5 years.
Very difficult problem ? It sure is for all manufacturers. Bottom line as a new Tesla owner cost is king depending on your income band. Infrastructure is the foundation to make it a full use gas car replacement it is a difficult feat which Tesla has pulled off with shear perseverance . I was waiting for 10+ years and made it when the costnow looks optimal.
These companies need to do reality check every month. I looked at rivian for longest time it’s like buying a property the cost of these vehicles which is a GIANT no go. Period
The graph makes 100% sense and thanks for posting this video
Where’s Aptera?
They're not even selling cars yet, so rather pointless to put them on the graph. I have high hopes for them, though and invested a bit in them. Management is so important!
I think the graph starts with first production year.
I think if there had been another EV manufacturer When Tesla started, it might’ve been impossible for Tesla to ever show a profit. Aside from some brilliant moves by Elon, the major factor in Tesla‘s success has been that they had no competition during their most difficult period. The poor companies that followed tesla into the EV space not only had competition, but world-class competition. I think it is substantially possible that none of the existing companies will ever show a profit making EVs.
I think it's fair to say that the *ICE* vehicle is dying. I doubt that there'll be an ICE vehicle sold by 2050.
Over the next 20 years, EV makers will have to make compelling models at affordable prices.
So far, as *Dan Ives* has maintained, it's *Tesla* market and other EV companies are just _paying rent._
I’d love a Rivian but worried it won’t be around in a years time so there’s that. They don’t sell them here in Australia anyway like every other maker on that chart except Tesla and Polestar.
Tesla also makes money from the cars even if they’re purchased used. Take me for instance. Last January I purchased a 2019 M3DMLR. I paid the $1000 for the hardware 3 retrofit, I’m subscribed to FSD and premium connectivity and I supercharge.
Respectfully, while it's important to critically evaluate data, it's also crucial to consider the current high interest rate context. Tesla's stellar growth, resilience and innovative approach have defied conventional metrics, leading to its remarkable EV market dominance. Except Chine with BYD. As with any company, challenges arise. Short-term fluctuations overlooks the long-term trajectory and transformative impact of electric vehicles. 😊. Cheers 🥂
Future of EV's hinges on lower cost, higher energy, faster charging, longer-life batteries. Then some like Rivian could be profitable and will likely be taken over by deeper pocket ICE makers. Loving the tech in Rivian.
The future (of ALL cars) hinges on software. Tesla won the "EV race" 4 - 5 years ago, and the new race is AI-related robotics. The problem with all non-Tesla companies, is that they STILL think "the car" is what matters. The next milestone is full FSD - and when that is sanctioned, buying or even owning a car will be financially stupid. Robotaxis will provide BETTER services at 1-tenth the cost. People are driven by their wallets. When I can buy "transport" for 20-cents a mile (compared to owning a car @ $2 a mile)... guess what? I'm going to abandon car ownsership and spend that cash on lifestyle pursuits.... like fancy holidays to Paris and Hng Kong... like a swimming pool in the back yard... like fancy restaurants... nice clothes...
The annual $20,000 I currently pay while OWNING a car (any car, EV or ICE) will be available for much nicer pursuits. When my neighbour sees me taking a cab to the airport for my next holiday in Hawaii, and I ask him to top up my new swimming pool with chlorine tablets while I am away... he too will start to think... "Why am I paying $20,000 a year for a car that sits parked doing nothing 95% of the time?"
@@brunosmith6925Your car sits parked 95% of the time? Maybe you need to get out more and do stuff then.
@@dattajack On average, worldwide, ALL cars sit parked for between 90% and 95% of the time.
A study done and reported in Fortune Magazine (13 March 2016) shows that cars sit parked for around 95% of the time. In my case, a little less as a round-trip to my business is 43 miles (daily).
There are several other studies of car usage which also indicate that cars are unused for more than 9/10ths of the day. Yes... I need to get out more, and you need to do some basic research.
Workhorse was the vendor with the original contract for the EVs for the USPS. They lost the contract, which might explain their recent less than stellar performance.
From the effort and already setup manufacturing, I'm guessing only Rivian will survive the next 10 years, even though their free cash flow looks pretty bad. This could be the result of inflation and the fact that they are pretty close to the release of their more affordable model. With these factors they seem to be following Teslas footsteps closely and have a real chance of surviving.
Investing in Tesla was/is a much easier proposition over their competitors (even before they became profitable). In part, this is because I felt strongly about supporting their important mission. One can almost view it as a donation to a good cause with a small chance of an asymmetric upside in case the company succeeds.
Tesla were the FIRST company to sort out MASS production of models (not a couple of hundred thousand).... They were the first to invent the Gigacasting. They were the first to reduce production of vehicles to below 25hrs per unit.... Therefore, they were the first to be efficient.
What about BYD, BMW who can sustain with ICE/Hybrid, and EV as optional investment, so cash flow is not an issue.
The problem is EV need to survive as well, infrastructure needs to be maintained. We need other only ev makers in the market thriving
Are there any EV sales now the POLITICAL TAXPAYER SUBSIDIES are drying up?
Not enough electricity, charging problems, massive hike in insurance costs, very high repair costs, batteries catching fire across the world, major companies ditching EV manufacture, EV companies going bust, let alone the inconvenience of owning one. They cost up to twice the price of an equivalent ICE car.
Their extra weight causes more road damage and damage to multi storey car parks, and tyre wear is far quicker than ICE cars.
They are made using child slave labour mining the Lithium and other rare materials and ALWAYS use an element of grid electricity that needs a large amount of fossil fuel to produce it so NOT GREEN AT ALL.
There are fields and car lots across the globe full of unsold EV's wasting precious materials. The batteries are extremely difficult and costly to reclaim and repurpose.
THEY DO NOT MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE TO THE POLITICAL CONSTRUCTS OF GLOBAL WARMING, NET ZERO, OR THE END OF CIVILISATION BUT do CAUSE A HELL OF A LOT OF TOXIC SMOKE WHEN THE BATTERIES SPONTANEOUSLY CATCH FIRE TO UTTER DESTRUCTION. Like the French battery recycling plant that has just destroyed itself when a Lithium battery caught fire and destroyed another 900 tonnes of waste batteries.
Otherwise, a great idea.
I believe Tesla is the first US auto company to successfully reach profitable mass production since Chrysler was founded in 1925
Tucker would have done so, but were killed by the Big 3. Tucker was like the ICE version of Tesla; lots of innovation, focus on safety, not in Michigan...
Where’s Lucid on there?
near Rivian half way down
It is easier for companies to tell a story to get money from the government than it is to produce something other than a story.
Rivian is revealing an r2 march 7 and is expected to be a smaller suv and might become a model y competitor
The R2 platform will be Rivian's Model 3 turnaround, but they may not last long enough to see it.
"Pure BEV" conveniently leaves out BYD.
Tesla is obviously a great EV company, but I took advantage of the FUD and got a great deal on a 2020 Bolt EV with 8300 miles last year. I've had no problems with it and still love it. I never seriously considered a Tesla because the base price of a Model 3 was twice what I paid for the Bolt with Premier trim. With price cuts on top of the tax credit, a Model 3 looks more attractive now, but I'm still happy with the Bolt and expect no issues with service.
Most of BYD, not all of it.
Because it messes with the hopium he is selling
BYD is not a PureEV
3 Things…
#1 This chart should be remade to show how many cars each company produced each year.
#2 To be fair, it took Tesla 8.5 + years to head back up from losing 11 Billion and none of the other EV makers have been alive that long… And 12.5+ years to cross into Profitability. So let’s just be fair on that point alone.
#3 Interest rates were much lower for much of Teslas struggling years, so that was an advantage to them.
Last Note: I am very Bullish on Tesla and all in. More so because what they have in the pipeline with Model 2, Energy, FSD, and Optimus vs their past. That said, we need to not be asshats and keep the timelines for Teslas turn around in perspective when comparing them to their competitors to be fair. I wish them all luck as competition is a good thing. That said, Tesla’s competitors have had the advantage of seeing how it was done successfully. None of them have the other Tesla Startups inside a single company. They do have a tough row to hoe.
Let's face it, how many people are going to want an EV when for half the price they can purchase a SEV (solar EV) that they never (seldom) have to pay to charge? Yes, Aptera (God willing). I have ordered one. (Don't talk about investments on open forums.) ;-) If they succeed (I hope they do) ... wow. Game changer!
BYD will not survive?
!
Dr.know -it-all, you were clear about BYD, didn’t mention Ford. Guess what your next video should be ASAP. I’ll subscribe just on this alone. C’mon now everyone will wait for ya. Thanks for this very good video..
Did Tesla succeed only because they started when interest rates were low? Also, how much of Tesla's profits came from credits they got from carmakers who weren't making EVs? Now that all car companies are making EVs there are less credits for the newer EV companies to benefit from.
I was all in TSLA for 3 years, it was the 3 years that it didn't move so I switched to AMD. A month later TSLA did it's 15x skyrocketing :) I got 3x on AMD but still, disappointing.
I note that Fisker's approach has been relatively inexpensive so with a more catchy design they could have made it. It's like a chinese range rover ish and they fumbled the promotion.
Currently it looks like none of them will make it. Rivian seems to be terrible at bean counting. Losing 85k on each one sold. By chance I came by part cost of a headlight. around 600$ used for one. Maybe they just asked some parts suppliers what it should cost and bought their greed hook line and sinker. And have lacked the awareness to do something about it for 4 years.
Lucid seems similarly crippled, they made a very premium car, looks well built but people said meh to 200k. And they have one showroom? and they are doing no PR and no one is talking about them. With Tesla and VW having 95% market share, it's gotta be really uphill. And both were absurdly well funded. I mean I would have to try real hard to make that much money disappear doing anything. You'd need someone really incompetent to do that like nasa.
Plotting those graphs out only Tesla survives, a pity as I really like Rivian but years from now will only see them in a EV museum.
As an investor it is not the amount the company is cash positive that matters it is the current and future potential stock price that matters.
Um... if a company may never get cash positive , they won't be a long term stock investment. Duh.
@8:00 you are forgetting about the simple that Teslas are considered "ugly" by most car enthusiasts
It's probably a psychological issue, but they would loose their money in a Rivian, than be seen in a Cybertruck
Tesla didn't always make a profit - in fact it came very very close to bankruptcy, Elon talks about this.
The EV maker that is going to trump Tesla is BYD - because it didn't start from the ground and make EV from scratch, BYD has been a BATTERY COMPANY for a long time. Phones and tablet batteries to their own cars, hybrids, EV's - even heavier vehicles such as buses. This experience and product line means that their first iterations in the EV or Hybrid markets will be a very strong presence at worst, and dominate the sales of even a behemoth like Tesla at best. The battle is about to heat up this year!
It’s kind of amazing that work horse after 17 years of only losing a little bit is now doing worse(?!) than they were 10 years ago. I’m sure there’s an interesting story in that.
Are you forgetting about Amazon vans?
This is such a big issue that legacy and start ups face that most people can't see this possibility but as more and more time goes by, it looks more and more probable...Tesla and the Chinese...end of story, beginning of story.
I live in new zealand,we have a choice between byd,mg and tesla,in America you seem to be between a rock and a hard place,the rock being tesla,the hard place every other manufacturer.
If price of oil had kept up with the last decade of inflation, EVs would be way more popular.
Where I live price of electricity surpassed inflation
Why is Polestar on this chart, I thought they were owned by Geely and they make ICE cars?
Geely?
where's GOEV
I bought a tesla in 2015 when the company was on tenterhooks wrt survivability. I am not rich but I am comfrtable and at the time it was a flyer. I wanted to build an electric car and had spent a few years researching and joining a club. I am an old man and my chances of fulfilling this ambition were not good. So buying this car after test driving it a couple of times seemed an easy way out. Visiting a supercharger station was the kicker and I went ahead and spent the nearly 100k for a car an item I had never spent more than 25k on. I now feel I really lucked out.
none of the other makers have not yet done the 8-9 years it took Tesla to turn it round
I have an R1S concerned, Evs not like gas cars, ahhhh, such a nice car
Tesla needs to start generating cash. This us getting ridiculous.
Looking at that, I wonder if Elon deserved his pay package. Answer, yes.
He is an actor like his mother, just he acts the role of a CEO.
It seems very convenient that BYD and other Ev manufacturers are missing on the Chart and gives a skewed outcome of Tesla instead of the profibility of all Ev companies even if they make hybrid or ice vehicles as well. This would give a true indication of companies' profibility or loss instead of cherry-picking the results, so it favours Tesla and is a skewed result.
This is the kind of BS we see from the Tesla fanbase and or Tesla share holder's.
BYD will eventually overtake Tesla in the next 2 to 3 years.
We see this in all segments, hreat ideas that dont have to guy that gets it made .
Tue first product should be simple not hyper complicated to scale up.
Erm?! What about the Chinese? It doesn't look like they will allow only Tesla to survive. The video title could stand a tiny bit less clickbait, perhaps? Just a thought.