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Clean Disruption: Why Conventional Energy and Transportation will be Obsolete by 2030
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 ส.ค. 2024
- En esta conferencia organizada por el Instituto de Ingeniería de la Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) y la Alianza para la Formación e Investigación en Infraestructura para el Desarrollo de México, AC (Alianza FiiDEM), Tony Seba nos presenta cómo la mejora exponencial de tecnologías como la solar, el almacenamiento de energía, los vehículos eléctricos y los vehículos autónomos irrumpirán y arrasarán las industrias de la energía y del transporte como las conocemos actualmente.
Seba es reconocido como un líder intelectual y orador principal en emprendimiento, disrupción y tendencias de futuro en energía y transporte.
La conferencia se llevó a cabo el 23 de noviembre de 2018 en el Foro de Química del Museo Universum de la UNAM, Ciudad de México.
Los conceptos y contenidos de la presentación son propiedad de Tony Seba.
Copyright © 2018 Tony Seba
Excellent presentation by Tony. Will be fun to watch his coming presentations over the next decade as this unfolds.
Wunderbare Rede. Ein bemerkenswerter Mensch.
Mit klarer Sicht. Mit deutlicher Rede. Der Verantwortliche,
der sich die Zeit für ihn nimmt, tut gut daran.
Heinrich Peter Maria Radojewski Schäfer Leverkusen
Genau! Jeder der in Deutschland noch an der Braunkohle festhalten will, sollte sich den Vortrag anhören.
Ich habe gerade nachgeschaut wie hoch der Netz-Anteil am deutschen Strompreis ist: 7.22 Cent pro kWh. Wieviel kostet inzwischen in Süddeutschland 1kwh Roof-Top-Solar? Etwas über 7.23 Cent. ;-)
www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/FAQs/DE/Sachgebiete/Energie/Verbraucher/PreiseUndRechnungen/WieSetztSichDerStrompreisZusammen.html
www.solarwatt.de/photovoltaikanlage/photovoltaikanlage-kaufen/photovoltaikanlage-kosten
@@sven5415 Ja, absolut. Diejenigen, die sich Jahrzente lang
in der falschen Sonne der Kohle gebräunt haben,
sollten das besser schnell begreifen.
Probably off topic but a thought just popped into my head that I wanted to share... Public transport such as buses and bike hire schemes are easy to monitor and gather data on as they are usually run/managed by local government. However, taxis (Hackney carriages, Uber, Lyft etc) are run by individuals or private companies and information about usage, passenger miles, fuel used (hydrocarbons/electric) is not available. This could affect cities’ ability to plan and react to the disruption. However, they do have licensing in their favour, and they could make it a condition of the license for the taxi companies to provide that data.
Definitely worth watching. No doubt, we have disruptive tech on the way. I'm not convinced that individual ownership of cars will only be 60/40. Pricing will dictate it. Also, its really a convergence of 4 disruptive technologies: EV's, driverless, cloud tech streamlining traffic flows/parking and batteries going solid state. The price of oil might not stay in the basement forever either. All commodities are supply/demand and having said that, the lower the price, the more affordable materials such as composites become. Oil consumption will likely be higher than 70 million BOE's per day but be more carbon friendly, ending up in high volume in places we don't expect right now. Its a great lecture to take in though. Its a decent snapshot of where cutting edge existing technologies are right now in terms of pricing as well as future projections. Tony looks at disruptions from a practicality/affordability perspective which is key to predicting when tech takes over market share. Very well done.
Very much worth watching.
Listening is very hard. Sounds like my wife trying to make me understand the same language I already know. Reminds me of some jack talking about heat pumps like he invented them when actually they were invented in Japan etc decades ago. The we have to listen to the pauses like our minds can't comprehend his massive intelligence. Could take a nap between pauses and wait for the tech/disruption in real life instead.
You should research Wright’s Law it is a much better predictor of cost declines
It is now July of 2109 and all of what he's saying is becoming fact. Actually some of the dates are even earlier. No lobby group will stop this. Let's all welcome the 10 hour work week with an enthusiastic Hell Yeah!
Agreed. Tesla has even shown their specs for their custom AI chips that will be significantly more powerful to perform Level 4 self driving. They even announced that they will not allow lease purchases in the future showing how serious they are as they want to own those leased vehicles to use for their robot-taxi fleet. I'm building a home in Nevada on 2 acres next year and I plan on having both solar and battery storage simply due to long term economic benefits. It's a great time for tech enthusiasts!
It's now past July 2022, and FSD ain't anywhere close yet, despite Musks absurd predictions, all of which have been wrong.
Love this guy!
They could convert some of the vacant car parks into charging stations or battery farms or a combination of both, especially in cities. Thus providing a more stable and distributed grid infrastructure.
Okay maybe we've had this one for a few years but my drones will be autonomous flying in and out between the trees and the cliffs
1:08:10 the unused carparks will be used for EVTOL landing pads. EVTOLs will extend the one hour commute range 300km or more making cheap rural land available for housing. Afortable housing could create a baby boom like the car suburbs of the 50's did. They will give people the ability to fly point to point as the crow flies over 300kph on demand bettween any landing pad on the network unristricted by fixed bus routes or schedules. Passenger rail will become obsolete. The energy consumption per mile figures for EVTOLs are similar or less than cars as the can fly like a crow.
Experts say Tesla is overvalued right now (Feb 2020). But Tesla cars are not just cars. They are automated taxi/smart batteries that are going to completely create new markets. You can't even call it a disruption or compare them to ICE's. It's more a replacement.
1:06:55 that, right there, will probably mean, that the number of cars will NOT go this much down, (or down at all)
How so?
I'm not sure what your point is. Of course the total number of cars will go down. The cars used for all of these free trips will be cars that are today sitting idle in parking lots. Supply and demand will assure that the number of cars will match their true need, unlike today where we clearly have way too many vehicles.
What about the increased demand for additional power for the electric vehicles? This talk doesn't factor in the effects of that.
more and more solar I imagine
The Union of Concerned Scientist did a study. The US has lots of excess power Off Peak at night. 80% of the cars and trucks could be electric and not need 1 extra power plant.
Solar pv and wind are growing super fast. Storage with advanced batteries. V2G Vehicle to GRID can also balance the GRID.
@@PhxElecAuto maybe based on current energy production fossil fuels being burned. batteries also increase pollution you need a batter in the car, plus one in your house and they have to be large enough to power both at all times
Where to invest?
Invest in Tesla, NVIDIA, lithium and cobalt suppliers. Space X when they go public.
For diversity look at Este Lauder EL and ULTA. Women will buy makeup to look good in a drought, famine etc
This is a great presentation but I have a question, in WW2 the German army used a lot of horses for delivering supplies on the eastern front and towing guns. So how come horses were still around in the 1940's
Just because there is a disruption it does not mean that an old technology has zero use or that it can't be used for other means. I mean, horses are still around now. You can go horseback riding, place a bet on a horse at the race track or go see some great show jumping. Tony's point is that none of us use horses to go work, pick up some milk or go on road trips today.
Lidar does not work. Waymo has driven in 25 cities, and they are mapping. Things are always changing. They do not work in bad weather or in cities that have not been mapped. They are not going to work when you have construction on roads??
in phoenix we actually only have level 2 autonomy, it was kind of dishonest to say its level 4 when in reality we don't have that yet.
I would have to say that Electric is here to stay..
I like to ask when is the disruption for electric airplanes.
I can answer that. Tony Seba did say that hydrogen is useless in ground based vehicles. But for airplanes, this could be somewhat different. The main advantage of hydrogen over batteries, is weight. Above all other things, weight is essential for a plane to get off the ground and stay there as long as possible. Maybe hydrogen could be that thing to revolutionize air transport. All short distance flights should be phased out, as soon as high speed trains could be the better alternative.
Trains for short distances will eventually decline into extinction, because of self driving cars and taxi's. The railway has to invent itself again and go for the relative short distances for planes. As a traindriver myself I already sense the transition within the company I work for. They ordered high speed trains instead of trains that could hold many people. The shift is already happening.
@@meesterJos Harbour Air in Vancouver is switching its air fleet to electric, right now.
@@peterkratoska4524 www.harbourair.com/harbour-air-and-magnix-partner-to-build-worlds-first-all-electric-airline/
Easyjet thinks they will fly Electric planes up and down London-Amsterdam-Brussels-Paris... by 2030 edition.cnn.com/travel/article/electric-easyjet-planes-intl/index.html
Once the batteries/ technology will be able to increase to 7-10 kWh/kg, we will ride with electric air planes.
I don't disagree with the general premise, but it is interesting looking at this in 2020 that Dyson have given up because making cars is too difficult. It's all about Tesla at this point and how quickly they can ramp factories and reduce costs further.
Telsa would need to build new factories every single year for decades, all of it coming with extreme environmental costs in a world with 10 billion people it doesn't matter if its electric or autonomous its going to cause problems
The way I see it you can shout into the wind for 10 years that everyone must give up cars, planes and only buy locally and as the waves lap around your waist you can shout I told you this would happen or you can do this which has way less environmental impact and actually make a difference. Ok all technology impacts the environment but we're too far down the road now to expect it all to screech to a halt now. Maybe once the fossil fuel industry is put out to pasture we can go again and improve things further but this change has to come first.
@@robbiero368 at current projected rates we will have 1 billion cars in 2020 and 3 billion cars in 2050 only 1/3 will be electric. if you put a carbon tax then half will be electric (that's still an increase)
@@Lildizzle420 no idea where you get those projections from but are you saying it would be better if they all remained as ICE cars, don't see how that will help. Autonomous ones though definitely have a shot at reducing the numbers rather than increasing them.
@@robbiero368 we can't use ICE or EV cars, neither are sustainable or equitable in a world with 10 billion people. you can google how many cars by 2050 and read estimates. I've heard 2 billion by 2030 to 3 billion by 2050 all of it sounds like a total pollution and congestion nightmare
"The video you requested isn't enabled for community contribution. Here are some other videos that could use your help."
how can I add translations in Spanish cause the auto-generated ones SUCK!!
TH-cam, Google Translate, you need help on this one and it'd be a game changer for latinamerican countries whose decision makers do not speak any English.
2018 "we're going to have 5T soon, but don't need that level for autonomous cars". 2022..... He's been drinking at the Sam KoolAid station as Musk. Also echoes Musk's mocking of hydrogen. Hydrogen is coming. Especially for heavy haulage.
I think there are interests which working against the point of Cheaper EVs.Depends which country and you pay the same for charging an EV in comparation to a Diesel,
the other point, maintenance of a Tesla is also not much cheaper than of an Audi looking at the actual costs, should be much cheaper
Tino Gruchmius nope, EV maintenance is almost 10X less than ICE, whether it’s Audi, tesla or any other company
i am not sure why Tony Seba is NOT factoring in Flying cars as part of clean disruptions.
Needs 5 years of batteries getting denser to start being any good.
we already have short duration flying electric planes. EVITIATION Electric Planes and Electric Trainer Planes are already there so is BlackFly electric flying car and other Hybrid Hydrogen/Fuel cell planes.
Also Solid State Batteries which has much higher energy densities are just around the corner .
With a reduction of 80% of cars on the road there is no need for flying cars.
This will not mean there will be no flying cars in the future, but it simply does not cause the disruption where this video is about. Regulations in the flying business makes it very hard to introduce autonomous flying cars
Flying cars won't exist anytime soon and is not because of the energy density of batteries and even not because of the human risk ,because you can mitigate it with automation. Flying cars won't happen anytime soon because they are inefficient from a movement generation point of view. They either have to be something like a drone, a plane or a helicopter. There is no other possibility. The problem with this three is that they make a lot of noise and wind currents. They cannot be used anywhere in cities (or at least not in numbers big enough to make them viable).
not sure where you are getting all these information from? are you making up these or just assuming?
For a start you might want to start reading up on Electric Planes like 'EVIATION Electric Plane' and the other planes in development from Airbus and the trainer Electric Planes already flying.
Not to mention that these are with current battery densities and can only get better with higher battery densities. Even Elon Musk predicted that with a doubling of battery density about 3 years ago. Hope you understand that energy density increases every year in batteries by about 15%.
One factor mr Seba does not take into account is that people love to drive cars, certainly when they are as powerful as a Tesla! Beside that we also buy them for many other reasons beside economics (status, identity, beauty, luxury, practicality.. like hauling a caravan or throw a surfboard in the back of a truck) So I do not think people will give up private car ownsership that easy.. When I look at myself, I drive around europe hauling a glider trailer about 5 weeks each summer, living like a glider pilot nomad from competition to camp outs and what not.. I do not see that working with an Uber...In France allmost all citisens who have a decent income, also have a caravan.. same thing
But for daily commutes, and driving around town for shopping, visiting friends and what not.. it makes perfect sense.. But that is not the only thing we do with our cars.
About that 10% reduction in car ownership, I do think that is caused by increased poverty in the USA, The US is really poor in some area's of the country
Marco Nierop - owning a car is debt, what status does debt create to a person. If Autonomous 4 is approved in CA, I am no longer driving and selling my cars
@@krishnay2965 I never pay for my car putting myself in debt. I simply save one up in 5-10 years, imagine how much money I have saved myself by NOT paying any interest to the banks.
Good that you do not see your car as a status symbol, but for many people around the world it is a way to show off how wealthy they are.
I have other reasons to hold on to my car, because I use it quite extensively to go on holiday in Europe during summer, hauling a glider trailer. And I enjoy driving!
Marco Nierop not everyone is like you. Many millennials don’t give a care to own a car. They would rather spend their money on experiences. I gather you’re not a millennial nor do you think like one. Times are changing.
@@stephenzungi6140 You are right about that.. I am not a millennial 😁.. and I am aware that this generation is less interested in owning things.. But they are not the only ones... And many millennials will make the choice to own a car, just because it is more practical in many cases.
But, for getting around town and short trips.. wonderful! Even me as an old fart see the advantages of that. Imagine how the city environment will improve!
People still love to own and ride horses, 100 years after the first great transport disruption, but very few, usually the rich and enthusiastic.
Also how many caravans just sit in the driveway 11 months of the year? That looks like a market right for disruption.
Drone races
Deutsche Untertitel wären sehr gut für eine weitere Verbreitung der Informationen !!
Dann empfehl ich Gerd Leonhard, Lars Thomsen oder Christoph Magnussen, das sind gute deutschsprachige Futuristen ;-)
Ihr Wort in Gottes Ohr. Nur: Der Mainstream ist daran nicht interessiert bzw. erfährt nichts davon, weil es nicht in den Öffentlich-rechtlichen kommt. Und die, die es interessiert, schauen es sich in englisch an.
Germany has a hydrogen fuel cell train on fare paying operation. The UK is to trial them soon. The UK is looking to use hydrogen in trains to preclude overhead wiring of track which is *very* expensive to install and maintain - besides being ugly. The _overall_ running and maintenance costs of the line using hydrogen is cheaper than full overhead line electrification. The hydrogen can be created in the trains' service depot.
The UK rail electrification programme has been put on hold. New trains on order will be diesel/electric hybrids that can be easily converted to hydrogen fuel cell when needed, retaining the electric traction motors and control gear.
Hydrogen makes even more sense when the electricity to crack the water to obtain the hydrogen is cleanly and freely obtained, like wind, wave, etc.
*Hydrogen does make sense when in the right application.*
What about trains that run on battery packs, which can be swapped out at the service depot for a freshly charged pack, and the depleted pack put on a charger?
Passenger trains will be made obsolete when robotic EVTOL skytaxis become cheap viable. They will give people the ability to fly point to point as the crow flies over 300kph on demand bettween any landing pad on the network unristricted by fixed bus routes or schedules.
@@zelekuther7938
Liverpool's Merseyrail is renewing its train stock. They are capable of running on 3rd rail, overhead wires and batteries by installing the relevant equipment. They will trial 3rd rail and battery hybrids to extend onto unelectrified track, to Preston and Helsby.
Not going to happen. People like me will NEVER give up our gas powered cars.
Enjoy paying more money
I disagree with the idea that with 80% less cars sold the people will save that much money, imagine millions of people with well payed job will be unemployed, this will cause a economic crisis or similar
So this is always a fear. What about the hundreds of thousands needed to install a renewable infrastructure? The fossil fuel industry and possibly the auto industry will shrink while jobs in grid scale wind and solar skyrocket. Todays grease monkey is tomorrows electrician. You see jobs lost. I see a jobs balance in industry shift and a freedom not seen since our great grandparents. Your vehicle fueled in your garage from a power plant that you own on your roof. All owned by you and powered by you on your own property. Not seen since our farming ancestors owned a horse for work and transportation fed on their land.
@@dwolff4127 i hope you are right and this are the mayor outcomings, other idea, we have to be aware that we dont kill the public transport or we will have more than less cars,
The issue with this is that yes we will need construction jobs to install the new systems. However once installed the man hours to maintain and manage is minimal. Think of 90% of transportation jobs gone in 5 to 10 years. Thats over 10 million unemployed basically overnight. I assume that most of these employees have minimal education. I am concerned of what will happen to society when this happens. The only two ways I see out of this issue is 1 we implement laws restricting automation. Or 2 we implement something similar to guaranteed minimum income.
@@GMike2000 The money from jobs/industry disrupted...does not disappear. it simply moves to a different venue. . The solar industry alone is growing at a ludicrous pace.
@@dwolff4127 I agree that the industry is growing. The issue is how many jobs are being created verse jobs being lost. Also the education level needed for the new jobs verse the education of the people loosing theirs. I don't foresee anything near the jobs created vs jobs lost though. I hope some new labor intensive job market sprouts up but I am pessimistic about it.
Three mistakes Tony. VW diesel? The video is just before the massive VW Diesel gate exposure of gaming the emissions system tests. Fiskar is dead. When you talk about fewer cars it doesn't reduce the humans in rush hour using cars. They may move more efficiently due to autonomy but the volume of vehicles transporting will remain close to the same unless there is a major upswing in ride sharing. 500,000 people leaving work in the same hour in DC LA or NY will still require 450,000 vehicles to move them.
Ride sharing and autonomous driving goes hand in hand.. That is what Mr. Seba tries to say. Cars will be used through the day transporting more people than only the owner, without the owner behind the wheel.. It will happen, but not to that extreme as Mr Seba thinks IMHO.. Time will tell.
@@MarcoNierop I understand that Marco. Glad you are following the disrutpion and moving the needle to renewable futures. Hopefully you have some money invested in the right places. Here's the issue that holds back the ride share. Many people in Metropolitan areas use the subway/bus. What happens when you don't have to be packed like a sardine to get home. You choosing to be 1 of 4 in a car with comfort or the madhouse rush ride? The number of people wishing to get door to door service will increase.
@@dwolff4127 Yes, that too, but those Subway passengers already have no car right now, so they will not contribute to the reduction of cars.
@@MarcoNierop I'm guessing you've never lived in a large metro area. most subway stops outside of the inner city (approx 40%) have parking lots where people from outside the city park and then jump on the subway.. People use the subway because it's faster travel then driving the mess. It isn't the poor and destitute riding the subway (though they do make up a %) and there are plenty of no vehicle row house yuppies. That isn't the majority. .
D Wolff I suspect by 2030 there will be a huge reduction in the number of new cars sold today.
Why? Some Young people today don’t see the point in learning to drive let alone own cars - thats a big change
EV vehicles drivetrains will last potentially 5x longer than ICE cars - so potentially 5x less need to get a new one (mechanically)
The robotaxi industry will begin to dominate before 2030 - driving cars will become more like a hobby, just like owning a horse in 1930. Fun, but not in the majority anymore
So, to your point about so many traffic jams and no parking available
Well, with increasingly people working from home/anywhere (another disruption thats already happening/happened), less people will be commuting, say 1/2.
And with robotaxis/ride sharing, cars will not be utilized 4% of the time, but 40%. So 10X less cars needed even though they run a lot of the time. So parking space requirements in city and at train stations reduces up to 90% - huge cost reduction and space saving.
But also instead of 1 person/car with a steering wheel, you will likely have 2-4 people in these robotaxis. Why because it is 2-4x cheaper and people don’t waste money daily if there is a better solution.
So, by 2030 or earlier, your commuting conundrum just won’t be a problem anymore. Disruption
difficult to listen to, poor speaker