While in Vegas in September and the Baltimore Orioles were something like 29 games out (from last Wild Card spot) with 30 to go. The sportsbook still had odds for them to win the World Series at 5000-1. That sounds really good to people who don’t know baseball looking to make a high return. For anyone who follows baseball, even a little bit, knows that is a total sucker bet. No team has ever comeback from such a deficit to make the playoffs, much less win the championship. Apparently, it is not illegal for the sportsbook to offer the wager until a team is mathematically eliminated.
@@Bigbubba1993- A 19-45 record is before the All Star Break. The situation I saw would require a team that was well below .500 to go on a 30-game win streak while another go on a 30-game losing JUST to make the playoffs. Comebacks happen, but not that crazy.
I rarely parlay spreads only money line and very few over/under totals. My winning percentage is much higher this way. Appreciate your advice, thank you.
Great move I bet all big dogs money line all then I parley it with someone tomorrow I lost 80 4$$ parlays I won 9 4$$ parlays profit 589$$ no emotion every dog hockey reverse puck the best value go to paulys picks u tube u will see me I'm a wrong better
You left off something that easily should be #1: College Football Teasers! Most of the team the only thing teasing does is cut into your profit since most would hit as parlays - as well.
Great post! I’m so grateful to have learned this landscape +15 years ago before the books became predatory and filled with false marketing. I will take a random bonus match with 1x rollover and do take the odds boost if paid in cash. Bonuses are a complete waste and just used to get you addicted.
I find parlays in soccer payoff significantly compelling from a risk/return perspective. Do you find the “straight bet vs parlay” varies significantly by sport/league?
I just don't see how. $10 parlays on 5 teams is what I do. That pays roughly $250. That means I have to lose 26 in a row to lose money, and I do 2 a day, so that's 2 weeks straight, and while I have had runs like that before where that's happened, I average 1 win roughly every 9 days. I've had times where I've won 3 days in a row, and just 2 weeks ago I won back to back days. That gives me a 49 parlay window cushion lol. I keep track of all of mine to see if I win, for 2024 I am up $370 😂. Not really worth it considering all the stress, but I personally do enjoy it and it doesn't affect my finances in any way.
Parley bets has always been known as sucker bets if parleys is what you like just to have action no more than 20 dollars on 3 teams the idea on parleys is something even a small win
Definitely handled the introductory free bets like that. Betting on as close to a guarantee as you can get in sports. I didn’t understand at all that they essentially keep the principal money until my last free bet in which I created a far fetched parlay that hit. Used that profit to pay for my fantasy football league which I finished in second (lost my fantasy championship by 2 points because Christian McCaffrey & Devontae Smith decided to have their worst games of the season 😢😢) So basically my free $150 in free bets turned into $170 in cash, used $100 for my fantasy buy-in which turned into $300 for my second place finish.
I turned $5 into $1000 steam rolling it through EPL and UFC. I had a heart attack waking up seeing my last bet $400 on Liverpool (they were down 1-0 with a red card on Virgil ) they came back in the 80-90th to win 2-1. I haven’t gambled since
i picked the ravens to win the super bowl before the start of the season, i don't know why i just felt it's their time, they are kicking ass so far so i'm happy for them
I bet on football for 45 years. One of the worst addictions you can have. I have no idea how many bets I made. But if you add them all up probably 50/50. The bookies love me.
8:10 This is wrong. On the temple -400 bet, your total EV is (1000+250)*77%=962.5$. On the Akron +320 bet, your total EV is (1000+3200)*23%=966$. So yes, while technically your overall EV of betting on Akron is slightly higher, it's nowhere near 4x the EV of betting on Temple.
I came here to say this too. Unless his point is the favourites have more vig it doesn’t make sense I think he’s also wrong with the free bet being bad if it’s a favourite Think this guy just likes gambling
I would add for any gambler if you ONLY like a Favorite on the money line, your subconscious is telling you take the points and the dog. Often times when you take the favorite on the money line thinking they ONLY need to Win the game.......they end up losing outright!
Betting Future props actually can be very profitable. You don’t have to wait for “the Super Bowl” to see your outcome through, if you have an edge on your market you can cash out early. That’s how you get those $10 to win $1000 tickets but you cash out at $450-$600 etc. This video should be aimed at taking those same types of bets and how you can actually profit off the styles in the same video instead of picking apart the risk aspect in all the betting types and then making a part 2 on why the worst are actually the best
It depends on the odds of each leg, but if you assume 50% probability that each leg will win, then the true odds of a 3-team parlay would be 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 12.5% or +700. Most sportsbooks would pay +600 on a 3-team parlay. That would be a -12.5% house edge on the money risked.
Hello Captain. Appreciate all of your insightful videos. Can you recommend the best book on the math used in calculating spreads/lines, true odds, house edge, etc. thanks.
The Logic of Sports Betting by Miller/Davidow Sharp Sports Betting by Wong Weighing the Odds at Sports Betting by Yao (might be tough to find that one)
I love future bets, i usually use my free bets on them. Last year had winner of Greyhound derby at 100/1. And i backed 7 teams this year for Superbowl, with 6 teams left. And i did them each way, so half odds for Just getting to final. So chances are i will get 2 to final. Free money, as i paid for it all without using my cash. Also did a few future parlay with chiefs, 49ers and bills win there divisions.... Lets not forget you could get bills at 15/8 at beginning as hype from jets and dolphins
Play your free bet from a sgp loss towards a slight plus money bet.3-1 odds on a freebie is careless. Use alternate lines if you want to work on bankrolling.
On a separate note, a few years ago, Leicester City were 5000/1 to win the Premier league a few years back. The previous season they barely avoided relegation. Bookies often tempt fans with ludicrous odds for essentially betting on no hopers to win the Premier league. With 4 months of the season to go, the bookies were hounding the punters to cashout, but Leicester were 10 pts clear and looked unstoppable, as the weeks wound on and they kept getting great results, they eventually won the title. Tom Hanks quite famously went to a Leicester game and pre-season dropped £100 on them to win the title. It won him £500,000 ( and the IRS taxed him on it ). Here in the UK, all winnings ( bookies/online bookies/lotteries/tv prize money on gameshows ) - is all tax free. Some fans did cashout, some said fck it and rode the bet. The bookies lost a sh*t tonne of money. Sadly, gone are the days of getting those odds for any team to win the Premier league. I think the best I've seen is 250/1.
I’ve done incredibly well on team over/unders since I started betting. I look for teams that make big off season moves that the fan base is going to enter the market and inflate the odds artificially. The Jets were a perfect example. I cashed on their under in week 13. Last year taking the over on the Nuggets, Kings, and the Warriors under were easy locks.
Just hit CT at 5 to 1 to win the tournament. Had SF at 8 to 1 to win the SB so was able to hedge that and still make money since KC was conveniently installed as the dog. My counter argument is they have to give all teams odds, especially early, despite those teams having virtually 0 chance of winning. Right now I can safely eliminate 50% of the NFL teams from winning the Super Bowl...but those teams are going to take up that buffer and then some.
Used new customer free bets, on two separate round-robin 7s by 8. For NFL futures, division winners. 10 per parlay. 16 parlays total. My one, I picked Baltimore, Houston, Kansas City, Dallas, Tampa Bay, SanFran, Detroit and... Miami. Got lucky that Miami v Buffalo was the very last game and $6900 was my cash out. (Max payout was 14.8k) Worked out but it was the most stressful bet I've ever placed, cause damn near every game, every week, mattered to me. Never again...
It's all just a math equation. Are the points you are gaining worth more than the price you're paying. We have a Teaser Calculator at Unabated for Premium members that helps figure it out. However, what you'll find is that the juice isn't worth the squeeze. It turns a 50% probability into a 75% probability, which makes the probability to hit a 3-teamer .75 * .75 * .75 = 42.19%. Typically those 3T 10pt teasers are offered at -120 odds (implied 54.5% probability). They'd need to be offered at better than +137 odds (42.19% implied probability) to be +EV.
Would agree 100% on parlays, but you did forget to mention that Baseball doesn't 'shade' parlays. Whatever the line is on each game is the line you'll get. Also, in football and basketball, every game is -110, right? However if you were to parlay three teams you would get 6/1 odds. If you instead parlayed them on your own, it would pay 5.96 to 1, so a 3-teamer is the only parlay where you would get a price better than if you did it yourself. Every other parlay, including a 2-teamer, is indeed a disaster for the player.
Different books treat it differently in the +264 vs +260 2-team payouts and the +596 vs +600 3-team payouts. But those who need to hear they should cut down on their parlaying typically don’t even notice the subtle difference in payout structure.
Ah. ultimate win futures are poor but over/under total futures , being 2 sided, not so bad. Also parlays of 1st half and final favs have been very lucrative for me but most sports books dont offer it anymore. Mildly surprised teasers did NOT make the top 5.
I agree with your sentiment about parlays but those are the coup de gras of betting. Some people bet for fun. Risking $5 to win four digits is what some of us are looking for.
I don't necessarily disagree with any except there's instances where futures bets are a wise play & some one way bets have value worth playing. For instance even though the Packers came up short they I caught em at 70 to 1 to win the NFC before they played the Bears. Didn't cash like the Heat last year to win the East at 100 to 1 but there's times when an NFL team in particular doesn't look so good in week 12 but go on to win it all. Packers in 2010, Colts in mid 2000s, PIT the first time with Roethlisberger, NYG in 2011. But in general especially with favorites futures bets are bad I absolutely agree. In general one way bets are bad bad ideas. Parlays always bad even when they hit because it just encourages bad behavior making us think it can happen anytime. Same game parlays can be absolutely the dumbest thing you could do when they jack you on the odds. There's certainly exceptions to all cases but in general you're dead on with all 5. If ya wanna have a chance to win don't do those 5 things
Basically he says don't make any bets other than single, individual, bets. Lol What he didn't say is that if you make single bets every day, it's basically the same as having to get the coin flip correct 3 times in a row anyway. If you bet a single bet on a favorite, you get a fraction of the potential winnings. And if you lose one, you need to win the next 2 to get back in the black. If you play a $5 parlay that pays $100, you only have to win 1 out of 20 days (bets) to break even. If you win 2 times out of 20, you double that to 200. I agree with the futures, kinda, unless your team is an extreme longshot. Then you want to get that bet in when they are at their lowest expectation. Also, I agree with what he said about the free bets and the 1 or nothing bets. Parlays are where it's at. If you build your parlays in a certain way, you can guarantee yourself money if your first couple bets hit. It's called hedging. And just for those that don't know, a hedging example is: You pick an NFL 1 o'clock game A 4 o'clock game. An 8 o'clock game. If the first 2 win, and the payout is $100 if the 3rd team wins, you bet $25 on the team you didn't pick. You either win $50 or $100. Unless that team is the underdog, then you could almost guarantee yourself your $100 win.
But see in a parlay you lose one and it’s busted where you can win some money back in singles and like he said on a parlay you have about a 12% chance or less versus 3 50% chance bets
Lol I broke every rule here on Fan Duel here this past weekend lol.. and hit lol.. I hit 9 of my 13 parlays this past weekend.. all parlays on props and anytime TD's.. well 6 of those parlays was a 5 player TD parlay and I round robined it into 5 4 leg combo's.. +1733 on 230 bucks risked in total.. I broke every rule lol
Nice! Enjoy the money. If people only lost when making bets like these then sportsbooks wouldn’t exist. So go spend the money on something for yourself. Don’t expect for this to be easily repeatable as the odds are against you.
I was never allured by same game parlays. I still can’t believe sports shows advertize them. I do make occasional regular parlays, but after watching this video, I may lay off those.
I always put a futures bet on my team to win the SB, just for fun. It's not a money making scheme. For money making, I just always bet on mahomes in the playoffs. It's not so technical, but it's made a lot of money over the last 3 seasons
I completely understand my odds of winning that 12 leg parlay are basicslly zero....but, I bet for recreation and to make the ganes more enjoyable. So risking 20 bucks to win 2.5k, is a fine trade off for the few times i do hit.
I put money on The Browns to win the SB just before the game vs The Jets on 12/28. I got it at +5000. I felt like that bet placed at that time seemed like a really great value. Maybe I’m not seeing this correctly but it seemed like a no brainer to me. I feel similarly about the Rams to win SB at +5000 right now.
We have a season simulator at Unabated.com which allows you to use your power ratings (or publicly available power ratings) to simulate the rest of the season and see how much value is or isn't available in futures bets. Some of our members did quite well finding mid-season value on Baltimore.
@@OuttaTown91 No, and I didn’t think the Browns or Rams were going to win the SB either but felt like there was good value in the odds available when I took them. I ended up doubling my money on my bets for the Browns and Rams. Because I was able to get them at 50:1 (the Rams was actually a little less) my plan was to hedge my bet each round of the playoffs. I was going to start out hedging enough to end up with 2x my original futures bet as a net. Because I didn’t know how much that would cost if the team made it all the way to SB, I wasn’t sure if I could make it all the way with that much of a hedge but it looked close enough to start there. I was actually kind of happy that both teams lost in the wild card round because it got me out of each bet with my initial target net. It was a win for sure. My expectation for SB winner among the remaining teams is: Ravens Bills 49ers Chiefs Bucs Lions Texans Packers
This guy seems to know what he’s talking about and has good intentions BUT….I’m going to disagree 100% about future bets. I’ve been gambling for over 16 years now and I can tell that the only way to remain profitable is through future bets. Game to game is too unpredictable and you can’t beat the vig. There’s just no way to beat the house game to game. Futures are the only way I’ve found to be profitable year and year. The key is future betting and hedging. Stay away from parlays for the rest of your life. That’s a losing strategy. Game to game and prop bets too. Stick to futures and you’ll be alright.
I understand the futures bet ones, you don’t want to make a bet on a play that doesn’t offer the other side, but some of them are just so free though 😅
Finally someone with a real name not begging for likes and comments and patreons and garbage riff raff man it’s refreshing someone actually proven and not needy for suckers to drink the koolaide
I hit very large parlays and then deposit the winnings. But I had lived In Vegas 15 years and I concur that you shouldn't parlay bet if you really don't know what your betting.
I predicted heat and panthers to make the nhl finals and nba finals a couple years ago when they did,i only bet 2 dollars and made 1300 bucks but i took the cash out for 900 after the heat were up 3-0 against the Celtics in the eastern championship finals,the Celtics came back to tie it 3-3 ,but eventually the heat won only to loose to the nuggets. It was fun considering it was my first futures bet. Beginningers luck
the more bets you place the bigger their edge is cuz of the vig. So i like future bets cuz you can bet 1 or 2 teams and then be done with it. If you make weekly bets on individual games that just means u make many different bets vs the books every year which is bad imo. Impossible to make money on reg season nba games but betting on the Cs in march at 3 to 1 odds was actually a solid bet.
Question: I have noticed recently that a certain Sportsbook seems to offer much better odds than other books on a certain type of correlation in SGPs. Say one book would offer +230 on the SGP but this book offers +300. Is it possible this book is not accounting for the correlation enough making these positive EV bets? Im winning on these bets but its a small sample size so I do not know for sure that its not just variance that’s causing the winninh
Books like to over-pad their lines on SGP's to not only account for correlation but also for what they may not be factoring in. So while +300 would be better than +230, the real question would be "is +300 +EV?" Tough to say without trying to work out the correlation yourself. A lot of SGP correlation is beyond what most bettors can factor into their projections.
@@Unabated thanks for the response. I’m decent with stats and data so I think I will make an attempt at figuring out an estimate of how much correlation there would be. Loving your videos so far I found the channel like a week ago through blackjack apprentice channel
Just hit last night $26 for $227 I only do parlays & I study a players last 5-10 Games when betting don’t take ridiculous odds like +300 on 35pts instead do 15/20pts & make a ticket at about +200 odds & put $50 down
I won my first same game parlay w the Indiana Pacers for $5600. They were just playing very well. Ultimately, its almost impossible to get every pick right. MLB spg is a BIG N-O lol
I have to disagree with you on the free first bet. Offset it at the normal odds on another site for the opposite outcome. Just bet the underdog on the free side, the favorite on the normal side. Then you make a 2nd bet if the real money loses to get a total of about 40%. It’s addition 101.
I saw your interview and I felt like you were speaking to me directly. I've always been horrible at math to the point that it was affecting my GPA in college and ultimately would beat down on myself as a failure ( later in life I would discover dyslexia is real). But in any case, sports betting and developing the maturity of discipline would make me more, dare is say? Passionate about this craft. But the love is short lived as this appetite for more always pulls me. A dark force perhaps? but an always tantalizing emotion that washes over me like a cool wave. Best of luck Captain and thanks.
The guys at Unabated have a ton of free information and it would take you months to consume it all. If you’re really passionate treat it like a university course and follow exactly what they recommend.
If it's a betting exchange you should be able to offer to take the other side of the wager. That's the best part of an exchange, you can set a price where you'd book the action and how much you'd like to risk.
As a new person to sports betting I bet 10 on my first bet on a 3 way parley and won 510 and was stoked but I've lost every bet after 🤣 wish I bet higher
are you saying for the for the risk-free bet, if you win on your first attempt, you get your stake back? but if you win on your second attempt, you do not get your stake back?
That's correct. The first bet is treated like a normal wager if it wins. However, the second bet if you lose the first is free play. You don't get your stake back on the second one.
Unless you are able to accurately create your own lines to then compare against the book odds, just stay away from sports betting. It's like trying to play blackjack without knowing basic strategy, you are feeding the casino money. Unless you are going to put in the time to narrow the house's edge, just play roulette or slots
Or you could let the sharp sportsbooks determine what the line should be and then pick off softer lines at other sportsbooks. People call this Top Down Betting. Here's how it works: th-cam.com/video/EQt2sq0_s64/w-d-xo.htmlsi=b67hl0sALRqeerwu
@@Unabated Again, if you put in the time and effort to narrow the edge like what you suggest, you are putting yourself in a better position. I would still suggest being able to look at a game and have an informed prediction of what the action should be before looking at the lines. I've seen interviews with some long time professional sports bettors who say creating their own lines helps with bankroll management and just helps you pick up those top down advantages. But yes, the top down strategy is a staple for most pros
So I moved to Vegas a couple years ago. I actually won a little bit of money my first two football seasons just betting single games and a couple parlays. This year they started offering the same game parlays and more player props on William Hill. I know I’m not a winning better but damn I was getting crushed. I didn’t know I was getting turbo juiced on the sgp’s. I sort of thought the sgp’s were a promotional thing to get more people on the sites because they were so popular on dk. Compared to those overseas sites we really take the worst of it in Vegas. DK will have first td odds at 17-1 and it will be 10-1 at Will Hill. Crazy.
Doesn't the example of betting the original $1000 on the underdog (with 23% chance) just show that betting on underdogs is correct in general regardless of whether it's part of a free bet scenario?
In the case of a free bet, you have a limited amount you can bet. That’s why you need to maximize the odds you play into. In regular betting there is typically not that constraint. So if you see something at -200 (66.7% implied probability) that has a 75% probability, it’s a good bet. Watch the video on our channel page for more on identifying price & probability.
Around 7:44 to calculate EV you took potential winnings x percent of winning. I looked online and they calculated EV as (potential winnings x chance of winning) - (amount wagered x chance of losing). Why the difference?
But the bettor does not get the money back if they lose, they get a free bet, which isnt the same as you go on to explain. What you do with your 1st bet and what you do with your Free Bet are Independent Events and one should not impact the EV calculation of the other. The important part here is what to do with the free bet if you lose your initial bet (which you cover). @@Unabated
Gambling winnings are taxed just the same as any other form of income. Federally, you declare your winnings as Other Income and you can deduct your losses up to the amount of your winnings if you itemize your deductions. More information about taxes and gambling available on our site here: unabated.com/articles/gambling-taxes-faq
What about prize picks as an example that gives you 10x for a 4 team parlay but you can bet two separate “same game parlay” your example Cousins and Jefferson, and Hurts and Brown to make a 4 teamer. This seems to be a loss of edge on the books part as when I started the nfl season every new sportsbook allowed this, but now they either do not allow or severely nerf the odds. Have been extremely profitable with this betting method this year
Correlation in parlay bets is a powerful angle. As you noted, Prizepicks has reduced payouts in situations where there is correlation. Trouble is, both sportsbooks and Prizepicks over-compensate for correlation and the payout is too reduced. Since most bettors can't exactly quantify the correlation effect, they don't recognize the penalty they're paying for the correlation. That's why SGP's are so lucrative for sportsbooks and harmful to bettors.
@@Unabated very interesting to learn the more nuanced side of sports gambling through your channel. I just noticed over the course of this year that Underdog as an example has lowered their payout on QB 1 and WR 1 for two separate games from +900 to +600. Assumed they noticed the edge and have corrected during the season. PP still is +900 and the only place I would make those type of bets now
Literally missed out on a 15 team money line parlay all ncaa basketball games, lost by one game the washington huskies at home against the under .500 usc trojans. Would have won 6k out of a 25 dollar bet. I also took a lot of underdogs moneyline in this parlay like Gonzaga and South Florida who were both around +135 under dogs and took close games like iowa state -145 and Cincinnati -125.
You're actually 15x more likely to miss by just one game than you are to hit all 15. That same math works for any amount of legs in a parlay. Do a 3-leg parlay and you're 3x times more likely to miss by just one leg than you are to hit it. That's part of the trap of parlays, they lull you into thinking you JUST missed it and that was a bad beat. In actuality, your result was far more probable than you think.
@@Unabated Oh I know, parlays are lottery tickets. It's still impressive to hit 14 out of 15 games and honestly it was a close miss, all I needed was UW to win at home as 5.5 pt favorites for this particular ticket. I have won other big parlays, but have lost a lot more.
you dont take into account the fact that i can make more bets with parlays and SGP risking less and win more than straight up bets. This is good advice for dopes, but if your make decent picks and win once and a while it isnt hard to make money. Ive lost 3 times as many bets as Ive won and im still way up.
You’re definitely right. I won 1 out of 6 parlays last night. But that 1 brought me back even. I’m 0/6 so far today with 1 game being played but I just need 2 of these bad boys to be back to normal hahahahhaa
Same game parlays and teasers were the best bets in the house back in the day.... before internet fuckery. 3 team 10 point teasers in the NFL paid 10-13... and 2 team 6.5 teasers paid 1 to 1... When lines get close to the final score people always say.. "Vegas Knows!" When in fact Vegas wins when Underdogs win... Teasers were the only bets Vegas could lose both ways
I made a futures bet on me continuing to make all of these bets. So far, it's looking promising.
W
😂
200 iq play
Lol
😂😂😂😂
6:05 I don't know who that is, but it isn't Justin Jefferson
Lmaoooo
😂😂😂 I was looking for this comment
I hate to do a double take to make sure they both weren’t just randoms but it was Kirk for sure💀
☠️☠️☠️☠️
I live in Vegas and always give my visitors the 50 percent/25 percent/12.5 percent lesson on three-team parlays. And then they bet parlays and lose.
Do you guys know what book can be used in California that allows straight bets?
most professional guy in the industry
While in Vegas in September and the Baltimore Orioles were something like 29 games out (from last Wild Card spot) with 30 to go. The sportsbook still had odds for them to win the World Series at 5000-1. That sounds really good to people who don’t know baseball looking to make a high return.
For anyone who follows baseball, even a little bit, knows that is a total sucker bet. No team has ever comeback from such a deficit to make the playoffs, much less win the championship.
Apparently, it is not illegal for the sportsbook to offer the wager until a team is mathematically eliminated.
@@Bigbubba1993- A 19-45 record is before the All Star Break. The situation I saw would require a team that was well below .500 to go on a 30-game win streak while another go on a 30-game losing JUST to make the playoffs. Comebacks happen, but not that crazy.
I rarely parlay spreads only money line and very few over/under totals. My winning percentage is much higher this way. Appreciate your advice, thank you.
Great move I bet all big dogs money line all then I parley it with someone tomorrow I lost 80 4$$ parlays I won 9 4$$ parlays profit 589$$ no emotion every dog hockey reverse puck the best value go to paulys picks u tube u will see me I'm a wrong better
Same here I almost always bet money line regardless and if I do parlay it's always money line
ML is the way plus round robin if you have a big parlay
So u saying u do parlays just not on spreads
@@lstruggyso u only do straight money line bets….or u do parlay money lines
Good video, I just had to comment of Justin Jefferson actually being Trishton Jackson
bro i saw that i was like wtf lol glad i’m not the only one
All black people look alike to professional sport betters
Spicy pickles never let me down man I swear 🥲
clever way to get us to interact with the video
As a diehard Vikings fan, I was like DAFUQQQQ? Lmao
Highly underrated channel.
You left off something that easily should be #1:
College Football Teasers!
Most of the team the only thing teasing does is cut into your profit since most would hit as parlays - as well.
Great post! I’m so grateful to have learned this landscape +15 years ago before the books became predatory and filled with false marketing. I will take a random bonus match with 1x rollover and do take the odds boost if paid in cash. Bonuses are a complete waste and just used to get you addicted.
You are absolutely right in everything you said especially parlays. They made more money on parlays than anything else. Awesome info
I find parlays in soccer payoff significantly compelling from a risk/return perspective. Do you find the “straight bet vs parlay” varies significantly by sport/league?
@danielepps9452 No doubt the
BTTS/ 0ver 2.5 doesnt even "feel" like a parlay.
I do $20 parleys...i am not going to bet $10 on 1 Team and $5 on 2 others and def not going to spend $60 doing $20 on each straight.
I just don't see how. $10 parlays on 5 teams is what I do. That pays roughly $250. That means I have to lose 26 in a row to lose money, and I do 2 a day, so that's 2 weeks straight, and while I have had runs like that before where that's happened, I average 1 win roughly every 9 days. I've had times where I've won 3 days in a row, and just 2 weeks ago I won back to back days. That gives me a 49 parlay window cushion lol. I keep track of all of mine to see if I win, for 2024 I am up $370 😂. Not really worth it considering all the stress, but I personally do enjoy it and it doesn't affect my finances in any way.
Parley bets has always been known as sucker bets if parleys is what you like just to have action no more than 20 dollars on 3 teams the idea on parleys is something even a small win
Definitely handled the introductory free bets like that. Betting on as close to a guarantee as you can get in sports. I didn’t understand at all that they essentially keep the principal money until my last free bet in which I created a far fetched parlay that hit. Used that profit to pay for my fantasy football league which I finished in second (lost my fantasy championship by 2 points because Christian McCaffrey & Devontae Smith decided to have their worst games of the season 😢😢)
So basically my free $150 in free bets turned into $170 in cash, used $100 for my fantasy buy-in which turned into $300 for my second place finish.
I turned $5 into $1000 steam rolling it through EPL and UFC. I had a heart attack waking up seeing my last bet $400 on Liverpool (they were down 1-0 with a red card on Virgil ) they came back in the 80-90th to win 2-1. I haven’t gambled since
😭😭😭😭😭😭
This dude won gambling and dipped. Un freaking real.
That's how you win. Few winning bets a year.
Wait you literally had a heart attack?
Great must bettors can't roll the win only the lost
Man I haven’t seen your videos in years. I like the new channel
i picked the ravens to win the super bowl before the start of the season, i don't know why i just felt it's their time, they are kicking ass so far so i'm happy for them
Damn 49ers. Would be my guess
Nice pick, defense wins games.
Good luck to you. I hope they win.
I have a futures bet too. +1800
If they can get past the 49ers you're in
I bet on football for 45 years. One of the worst addictions you can have. I have no idea how many bets I made. But if you add them all up probably 50/50. The bookies love me.
100% facts and I loved how you explained the mathematical standpoint behind everything
This really is incredible, merry christmas from the other end of the world. I hope you had a great one!
8:10 This is wrong.
On the temple -400 bet, your total EV is (1000+250)*77%=962.5$.
On the Akron +320 bet, your total EV is (1000+3200)*23%=966$.
So yes, while technically your overall EV of betting on Akron is slightly higher, it's nowhere near 4x the EV of betting on Temple.
I came here to say this too. Unless his point is the favourites have more vig it doesn’t make sense
I think he’s also wrong with the free bet being bad if it’s a favourite
Think this guy just likes gambling
I like betting stats and doing alts instead of the set lines
I win 2-4 game parlays all the time just have to buy points 😂 agree 100% on sgp
I would add for any gambler if you ONLY like a Favorite on the money line, your subconscious is telling you take the points and the dog. Often times when you take the favorite on the money line thinking they ONLY need to Win the game.......they end up losing outright!
I bet 2 teams only I take the favorite I put 1000$ on Dallas and buffalo 2 win. Take home about 560$
Question do you know how to program and make programs for computers to make betting easier?
1:22 this aged very very well
twice
Yeah I learned that too about the free bet, I always make sure my free bet is above +100 to make my money back at least
Betting Future props actually can be very profitable. You don’t have to wait for “the Super Bowl” to see your outcome through, if you have an edge on your market you can cash out early. That’s how you get those $10 to win $1000 tickets but you cash out at $450-$600 etc.
This video should be aimed at taking those same types of bets and how you can actually profit off the styles in the same video instead of picking apart the risk aspect in all the betting types and then making a part 2 on why the worst are actually the best
On the other side, despite the juice, NFL season win totals a very good play.
Thank you for the graphic at 5:25. What is the house edge and true odds on a 3 leg parlay? I see a lot of bonus bets and odds boosts with a 3 leg min.
It depends on the odds of each leg, but if you assume 50% probability that each leg will win, then the true odds of a 3-team parlay would be 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 12.5% or +700. Most sportsbooks would pay +600 on a 3-team parlay. That would be a -12.5% house edge on the money risked.
Hello Captain. Appreciate all of your insightful videos. Can you recommend the best book on the math used in calculating spreads/lines, true odds, house edge, etc. thanks.
The Logic of Sports Betting by Miller/Davidow
Sharp Sports Betting by Wong
Weighing the Odds at Sports Betting by Yao (might be tough to find that one)
have won three futures in a row...baseball plus.
done great with parlays...baseball and NBA first half bets.
I love future bets, i usually use my free bets on them. Last year had winner of Greyhound derby at 100/1. And i backed 7 teams this year for Superbowl, with 6 teams left. And i did them each way, so half odds for Just getting to final. So chances are i will get 2 to final. Free money, as i paid for it all without using my cash. Also did a few future parlay with chiefs, 49ers and bills win there divisions.... Lets not forget you could get bills at 15/8 at beginning as hype from jets and dolphins
I hear a lot of misdirection and unknown Gems within this advice, so thank you 😊
Play your free bet from a sgp loss towards a slight plus money bet.3-1 odds on a freebie is careless. Use alternate lines if you want to work on bankrolling.
Great explanation…still can’t stop playing SGP’s tho lol
😂😂😂
Can you do a deep dive on betting on the NBA?
I just checked Caesars sportsbook and the parlay payout came out to the same amount as calculated. Maybe that's a New York thing
On a separate note, a few years ago, Leicester City were 5000/1 to win the Premier league a few years back. The previous season they barely avoided relegation. Bookies often tempt fans with ludicrous odds for essentially betting on no hopers to win the Premier league. With 4 months of the season to go, the bookies were hounding the punters to cashout, but Leicester were 10 pts clear and looked unstoppable, as the weeks wound on and they kept getting great results, they eventually won the title. Tom Hanks quite famously went to a Leicester game and pre-season dropped £100 on them to win the title. It won him £500,000 ( and the IRS taxed him on it ). Here in the UK, all winnings ( bookies/online bookies/lotteries/tv prize money on gameshows ) - is all tax free. Some fans did cashout, some said fck it and rode the bet. The bookies lost a sh*t tonne of money. Sadly, gone are the days of getting those odds for any team to win the Premier league. I think the best I've seen is 250/1.
I’ve done incredibly well on team over/unders since I started betting. I look for teams that make big off season moves that the fan base is going to enter the market and inflate the odds artificially. The Jets were a perfect example. I cashed on their under in week 13. Last year taking the over on the Nuggets, Kings, and the Warriors under were easy locks.
blud out here acting like aaron rodgers didn’t get hurt 💀
No you haven't. You've just remembered all your wins and forgotten all your losses.
@@Eggy79100%… a tale as old as time
Anytime I ask to see someone’s stats on bet365, they’re all surprised they’re losing money, lol.
@@theexecutor3337 Just bet the Jets under 10 next year when the hype is even bigger. Easy W.
Just hit CT at 5 to 1 to win the tournament. Had SF at 8 to 1 to win the SB so was able to hedge that and still make money since KC was conveniently installed as the dog. My counter argument is they have to give all teams odds, especially early, despite those teams having virtually 0 chance of winning. Right now I can safely eliminate 50% of the NFL teams from winning the Super Bowl...but those teams are going to take up that buffer and then some.
Used new customer free bets, on two separate round-robin 7s by 8. For NFL futures, division winners. 10 per parlay. 16 parlays total. My one, I picked Baltimore, Houston, Kansas City, Dallas, Tampa Bay, SanFran, Detroit and... Miami.
Got lucky that Miami v Buffalo was the very last game and $6900 was my cash out. (Max payout was 14.8k)
Worked out but it was the most stressful bet I've ever placed, cause damn near every game, every week, mattered to me.
Never again...
What is a round Robin
Me: Mom can we get Justin Jefferson?
Mom: No, we have Justin Jefferson at home
JJ at Home: 6:00
😂
What would you think about a super teaser 10+ point spread 3 team parlay? Basically a team with a 7 point spread is now a 17 point spread.
It's all just a math equation. Are the points you are gaining worth more than the price you're paying. We have a Teaser Calculator at Unabated for Premium members that helps figure it out. However, what you'll find is that the juice isn't worth the squeeze.
It turns a 50% probability into a 75% probability, which makes the probability to hit a 3-teamer .75 * .75 * .75 = 42.19%. Typically those 3T 10pt teasers are offered at -120 odds (implied 54.5% probability). They'd need to be offered at better than +137 odds (42.19% implied probability) to be +EV.
Teaser bad beat
Would agree 100% on parlays, but you did forget to mention that Baseball doesn't 'shade' parlays. Whatever the line is on each game is the line you'll get. Also, in football and basketball, every game is -110, right? However if you were to parlay three teams you would get 6/1 odds. If you instead parlayed them on your own, it would pay 5.96 to 1, so a 3-teamer is the only parlay where you would get a price better than if you did it yourself. Every other parlay, including a 2-teamer, is indeed a disaster for the player.
Different books treat it differently in the +264 vs +260 2-team payouts and the +596 vs +600 3-team payouts. But those who need to hear they should cut down on their parlaying typically don’t even notice the subtle difference in payout structure.
Excellent clear explanations
Ah. ultimate win futures are poor but over/under total futures , being 2 sided, not so bad. Also parlays of 1st half and final favs have been very lucrative for me but most sports books dont offer it anymore. Mildly surprised teasers did NOT make the top 5.
I agree with your sentiment about parlays but those are the coup de gras of betting. Some people bet for fun. Risking $5 to win four digits is what some of us are looking for.
I’m that jets fan that bet on Aaron Rodgers changing this franchise.. I feel attacked
I don't necessarily disagree with any except there's instances where futures bets are a wise play & some one way bets have value worth playing. For instance even though the Packers came up short they I caught em at 70 to 1 to win the NFC before they played the Bears. Didn't cash like the Heat last year to win the East at 100 to 1 but there's times when an NFL team in particular doesn't look so good in week 12 but go on to win it all. Packers in 2010, Colts in mid 2000s, PIT the first time with Roethlisberger, NYG in 2011. But in general especially with favorites futures bets are bad I absolutely agree. In general one way bets are bad bad ideas. Parlays always bad even when they hit because it just encourages bad behavior making us think it can happen anytime. Same game parlays can be absolutely the dumbest thing you could do when they jack you on the odds. There's certainly exceptions to all cases but in general you're dead on with all 5. If ya wanna have a chance to win don't do those 5 things
Basically he says don't make any bets other than single, individual, bets. Lol
What he didn't say is that if you make single bets every day, it's basically the same as having to get the coin flip correct 3 times in a row anyway. If you bet a single bet on a favorite, you get a fraction of the potential winnings. And if you lose one, you need to win the next 2 to get back in the black.
If you play a $5 parlay that pays $100, you only have to win 1 out of 20 days (bets) to break even. If you win 2 times out of 20, you double that to 200.
I agree with the futures, kinda, unless your team is an extreme longshot. Then you want to get that bet in when they are at their lowest expectation.
Also, I agree with what he said about the free bets and the 1 or nothing bets.
Parlays are where it's at. If you build your parlays in a certain way, you can guarantee yourself money if your first couple bets hit. It's called hedging.
And just for those that don't know, a hedging example is:
You pick an NFL 1 o'clock game
A 4 o'clock game.
An 8 o'clock game.
If the first 2 win, and the payout is $100 if the 3rd team wins, you bet $25 on the team you didn't pick. You either win $50 or $100. Unless that team is the underdog, then you could almost guarantee yourself your $100 win.
But see in a parlay you lose one and it’s busted where you can win some money back in singles and like he said on a parlay you have about a 12% chance or less versus 3 50% chance bets
Sportsbooks love parlay bettors
@@kevenlang9116 they love all bettors
lmao thats not justin jefferson but good video lol
You're right...that's my mistake and didn't realize it until after the video was final. Was hoping nobody noticed. 😳
lol vikings fan so im nitpicking ahha@@CaptainJackAndrews
Lmfaoo
Lol I broke every rule here on Fan Duel here this past weekend lol.. and hit lol.. I hit 9 of my 13 parlays this past weekend.. all parlays on props and anytime TD's.. well 6 of those parlays was a 5 player TD parlay and I round robined it into 5 4 leg combo's.. +1733 on 230 bucks risked in total.. I broke every rule lol
Nice! Enjoy the money. If people only lost when making bets like these then sportsbooks wouldn’t exist. So go spend the money on something for yourself. Don’t expect for this to be easily repeatable as the odds are against you.
That's how they get you hooked, how you doing after this Sunday and all those injuries lol, I got messed up lol
@@Unabated oh I dont expect it.. it was just ironic
Jets got injured on the first play of the game out for the season. 1:22
I was never allured by same game parlays. I still can’t believe sports shows advertize them. I do make occasional regular parlays, but after watching this video, I may lay off those.
I always put a futures bet on my team to win the SB, just for fun. It's not a money making scheme. For money making, I just always bet on mahomes in the playoffs. It's not so technical, but it's made a lot of money over the last 3 seasons
Appreciate the knowledge and wisdom!
Thank you for this very informative content with examples. I will avoid those bets for sure.
Most Bad bet List
1. Daily Horse Racing
2. Daily Harness Racing
3. Daily Greyhound Racing
I completely understand my odds of winning that 12 leg parlay are basicslly zero....but, I bet for recreation and to make the ganes more enjoyable.
So risking 20 bucks to win 2.5k, is a fine trade off for the few times i do hit.
I put money on The Browns to win the SB just before the game vs The Jets on 12/28. I got it at +5000. I felt like that bet placed at that time seemed like a really great value. Maybe I’m not seeing this correctly but it seemed like a no brainer to me. I feel similarly about the Rams to win SB at +5000 right now.
We have a season simulator at Unabated.com which allows you to use your power ratings (or publicly available power ratings) to simulate the rest of the season and see how much value is or isn't available in futures bets. Some of our members did quite well finding mid-season value on Baltimore.
Lol
Let me guess now you think the Texans will win the Super Bowl
@@OuttaTown91 No, and I didn’t think the Browns or Rams were going to win the SB either but felt like there was good value in the odds available when I took them. I ended up doubling my money on my bets for the Browns and Rams. Because I was able to get them at 50:1 (the Rams was actually a little less) my plan was to hedge my bet each round of the playoffs. I was going to start out hedging enough to end up with 2x my original futures bet as a net. Because I didn’t know how much that would cost if the team made it all the way to SB, I wasn’t sure if I could make it all the way with that much of a hedge but it looked close enough to start there. I was actually kind of happy that both teams lost in the wild card round because it got me out of each bet with my initial target net. It was a win for sure.
My expectation for SB winner among the remaining teams is:
Ravens
Bills
49ers
Chiefs
Bucs
Lions
Texans
Packers
This guy seems to know what he’s talking about and has good intentions BUT….I’m going to disagree 100% about future bets. I’ve been gambling for over 16 years now and I can tell that the only way to remain profitable is through future bets. Game to game is too unpredictable and you can’t beat the vig. There’s just no way to beat the house game to game. Futures are the only way I’ve found to be profitable year and year. The key is future betting and hedging. Stay away from parlays for the rest of your life. That’s a losing strategy. Game to game and prop bets too. Stick to futures and you’ll be alright.
That's like telling a Doctor "You seem to have good intentions....BUT smoking is healthy I've survived over 16 years now!"
I agree . You can spread your bets on futures, but you have to shop around. And then hedging at seasons end is sound management
I understand the futures bet ones, you don’t want to make a bet on a play that doesn’t offer the other side, but some of them are just so free though 😅
Great video, but few bettors are ever going to understand the math involved.
Finally someone with a real name not begging for likes and comments and patreons and garbage riff raff man it’s refreshing someone actually proven and not needy for suckers to drink the koolaide
I hit very large parlays and then deposit the winnings. But I had lived In Vegas 15 years and I concur that you shouldn't parlay bet if you really don't know what your betting.
I predicted heat and panthers to make the nhl finals and nba finals a couple years ago when they did,i only bet 2 dollars and made 1300 bucks but i took the cash out for 900 after the heat were up 3-0 against the Celtics in the eastern championship finals,the Celtics came back to tie it 3-3 ,but eventually the heat won only to loose to the nuggets. It was fun considering it was my first futures bet. Beginningers luck
Futures bets are the only bets I make. I’m up UP! This guy might be right about 1-4 but futures bets are the way to go.
These 5 tips are absolutely crucial for your sports career. Avoid the types of bets mentioned at all costs.
the more bets you place the bigger their edge is cuz of the vig. So i like future bets cuz you can bet 1 or 2 teams and then be done with it. If you make weekly bets on individual games that just means u make many different bets vs the books every year which is bad imo. Impossible to make money on reg season nba games but betting on the Cs in march at 3 to 1 odds was actually a solid bet.
Question: I have noticed recently that a certain Sportsbook seems to offer much better odds than other books on a certain type of correlation in SGPs. Say one book would offer +230 on the SGP but this book offers +300. Is it possible this book is not accounting for the correlation enough making these positive EV bets? Im winning on these bets but its a small sample size so I do not know for sure that its not just variance that’s causing the winninh
Books like to over-pad their lines on SGP's to not only account for correlation but also for what they may not be factoring in. So while +300 would be better than +230, the real question would be "is +300 +EV?" Tough to say without trying to work out the correlation yourself. A lot of SGP correlation is beyond what most bettors can factor into their projections.
@@Unabated thanks for the response. I’m decent with stats and data so I think I will make an attempt at figuring out an estimate of how much correlation there would be. Loving your videos so far I found the channel like a week ago through blackjack apprentice channel
Just hit last night $26 for $227 I only do parlays & I study a players last 5-10 Games when betting don’t take ridiculous odds like +300 on 35pts instead do 15/20pts & make a ticket at about +200 odds & put $50 down
I won my first same game parlay w the Indiana Pacers for $5600. They were just playing very well. Ultimately, its almost impossible to get every pick right. MLB spg is a BIG N-O lol
1:08 did not age very well 😂😊
Lolol
I have to disagree with you on the free first bet. Offset it at the normal odds on another site for the opposite outcome. Just bet the underdog on the free side, the favorite on the normal side. Then you make a 2nd bet if the real money loses to get a total of about 40%. It’s addition 101.
I saw your interview and I felt like you were speaking to me directly. I've always been horrible at math to the point that it was affecting my GPA in college and ultimately would beat down on myself as a failure ( later in life I would discover dyslexia is real). But in any case, sports betting and developing the maturity of discipline would make me more, dare is say? Passionate about this craft. But the love is short lived as this appetite for more always pulls me. A dark force perhaps? but an always tantalizing emotion that washes over me like a cool wave. Best of luck Captain and thanks.
The guys at Unabated have a ton of free information and it would take you months to consume it all. If you’re really passionate treat it like a university course and follow exactly what they recommend.
Good video. I've seen some "One-Way" offers at a betting exchange that look pretty good. Are betting exchanges possibly an exception to this rule?
If it's a betting exchange you should be able to offer to take the other side of the wager. That's the best part of an exchange, you can set a price where you'd book the action and how much you'd like to risk.
This was excellent, thank you
How do I see the on screen on unabated, just subscribed
Click NFL, Odds. Enjoy!
As a new person to sports betting I bet 10 on my first bet on a 3 way parley and won 510 and was stoked but I've lost every bet after 🤣 wish I bet higher
The Jets slogan should be "We are still the Jets "
Good stuff, Cap.
are you saying for the for the risk-free bet, if you win on your first attempt, you get your stake back? but if you win on your second attempt, you do not get your stake back?
That's correct. The first bet is treated like a normal wager if it wins. However, the second bet if you lose the first is free play. You don't get your stake back on the second one.
@@Unabated thank you!
Unless you are able to accurately create your own lines to then compare against the book odds, just stay away from sports betting. It's like trying to play blackjack without knowing basic strategy, you are feeding the casino money. Unless you are going to put in the time to narrow the house's edge, just play roulette or slots
Or you could let the sharp sportsbooks determine what the line should be and then pick off softer lines at other sportsbooks. People call this Top Down Betting. Here's how it works: th-cam.com/video/EQt2sq0_s64/w-d-xo.htmlsi=b67hl0sALRqeerwu
@@Unabated Again, if you put in the time and effort to narrow the edge like what you suggest, you are putting yourself in a better position. I would still suggest being able to look at a game and have an informed prediction of what the action should be before looking at the lines. I've seen interviews with some long time professional sports bettors who say creating their own lines helps with bankroll management and just helps you pick up those top down advantages. But yes, the top down strategy is a staple for most pros
So I moved to Vegas a couple years ago. I actually won a little bit of money my first two football seasons just betting single games and a couple parlays. This year they started offering the same game parlays and more player props on William Hill. I know I’m not a winning better but damn I was getting crushed. I didn’t know I was getting turbo juiced on the sgp’s. I sort of thought the sgp’s were a promotional thing to get more people on the sites because they were so popular on dk. Compared to those overseas sites we really take the worst of it in Vegas. DK will have first td odds at 17-1 and it will be 10-1 at Will Hill. Crazy.
if you only play the no sweat bets and promos and boosts you'll be good to go
Where is the link for how to play the risk free bets?
Right in the description. "Jack's video on the best way to use a free bet"
Thanks for the tips
Doesn't the example of betting the original $1000 on the underdog (with 23% chance) just show that betting on underdogs is correct in general regardless of whether it's part of a free bet scenario?
In the case of a free bet, you have a limited amount you can bet. That’s why you need to maximize the odds you play into. In regular betting there is typically not that constraint. So if you see something at -200 (66.7% implied probability) that has a 75% probability, it’s a good bet. Watch the video on our channel page for more on identifying price & probability.
Around 7:44 to calculate EV you took potential winnings x percent of winning. I looked online and they calculated EV as (potential winnings x chance of winning) - (amount wagered x chance of losing). Why the difference?
It's a risk-free bet, the bettor gets the money back if they lose, so there's no reason to calculate the losing side.
I see. Thank you for your explanation!@@Unabated
But the bettor does not get the money back if they lose, they get a free bet, which isnt the same as you go on to explain. What you do with your 1st bet and what you do with your Free Bet are Independent Events and one should not impact the EV calculation of the other. The important part here is what to do with the free bet if you lose your initial bet (which you cover). @@Unabated
you have a nice website good job :)
Great knowledge and incite
how do you pay taxes if you win in California?
Gambling winnings are taxed just the same as any other form of income. Federally, you declare your winnings as Other Income and you can deduct your losses up to the amount of your winnings if you itemize your deductions. More information about taxes and gambling available on our site here: unabated.com/articles/gambling-taxes-faq
I noticed you did not mention Arbitrage betting.
Soccer is a good place to look for those odds.
What about prize picks as an example that gives you 10x for a 4 team parlay but you can bet two separate “same game parlay” your example Cousins and Jefferson, and Hurts and Brown to make a 4 teamer.
This seems to be a loss of edge on the books part as when I started the nfl season every new sportsbook allowed this, but now they either do not allow or severely nerf the odds.
Have been extremely profitable with this betting method this year
Correlation in parlay bets is a powerful angle. As you noted, Prizepicks has reduced payouts in situations where there is correlation. Trouble is, both sportsbooks and Prizepicks over-compensate for correlation and the payout is too reduced. Since most bettors can't exactly quantify the correlation effect, they don't recognize the penalty they're paying for the correlation. That's why SGP's are so lucrative for sportsbooks and harmful to bettors.
@@Unabated very interesting to learn the more nuanced side of sports gambling through your channel. I just noticed over the course of this year that Underdog as an example has lowered their payout on QB 1 and WR 1 for two separate games from +900 to +600. Assumed they noticed the edge and have corrected during the season. PP still is +900 and the only place I would make those type of bets now
Literally missed out on a 15 team money line parlay all ncaa basketball games, lost by one game the washington huskies at home against the under .500 usc trojans. Would have won 6k out of a 25 dollar bet. I also took a lot of underdogs moneyline in this parlay like Gonzaga and South Florida who were both around +135 under dogs and took close games like iowa state -145 and Cincinnati -125.
You're actually 15x more likely to miss by just one game than you are to hit all 15. That same math works for any amount of legs in a parlay. Do a 3-leg parlay and you're 3x times more likely to miss by just one leg than you are to hit it.
That's part of the trap of parlays, they lull you into thinking you JUST missed it and that was a bad beat. In actuality, your result was far more probable than you think.
@@Unabated Oh I know, parlays are lottery tickets. It's still impressive to hit 14 out of 15 games and honestly it was a close miss, all I needed was UW to win at home as 5.5 pt favorites for this particular ticket.
I have won other big parlays, but have lost a lot more.
you dont take into account the fact that i can make more bets with parlays and SGP risking less and win more than straight up bets. This is good advice for dopes, but if your make decent picks and win once and a while it isnt hard to make money. Ive lost 3 times as many bets as Ive won and im still way up.
Thank you for the information
You’re definitely right. I won 1 out of 6 parlays last night. But that 1 brought me back even. I’m 0/6 so far today with 1 game being played but I just need 2 of these bad boys to be back to normal hahahahhaa
Same game parlays and teasers were the best bets in the house back in the day.... before internet fuckery. 3 team 10 point teasers in the NFL paid 10-13... and 2 team 6.5 teasers paid 1 to 1... When lines get close to the final score people always say.. "Vegas Knows!" When in fact Vegas wins when Underdogs win... Teasers were the only bets Vegas could lose both ways
Subscribed 👌🏽
I guess I'll stick with BTC. At least I know I'll eventually win if I HODL.