OddsJam Positive EV Tool: tryoddsjam.com/5ri OddsJam Fantasy Screen: tryoddsjam.com/nmk All sportsbook sign-up bonuses in your location: tryoddsjam.com/us2 OddsJam Arbitrage Betting Tool: tryoddsjam.com/nlt email: Alex@OddsJam.com
This made me more confused, Tell me this I just hit on 41 out of a 42 leg parlay in college football , what are the odds on that , I know my shit in football . I do it all the time I always wind up losing only 1 leg !
I actually started sports betting with Betr, fanduel just became legal here in NC and ive been doing good. 2 leg and 3 leg parlays are tooo bad but can definitely be stressful. Im picking the highest probability odds in each legs though . Last night i was down until the end of the lakers game where i finally made my money back and some profit
Something thats worked for me is small number of legs maybe 3-4 legs max and I have several rules that have to all be in the recipe to maximize my probability of winning like homefield advantage, the favorite to win and like I said small legs as long as you double your investment who care if you make a small amount you wom
How do you see the odds between each Sportsbook? Do you manually checking them one by one or there is an app to see all of them lined up like you post it Alex?
About 80 to 90 percent of my money is Straight bets / 2 Pick Parlays or Teasers. With Teasers being my fav bet. The other 20 percent I take my 4 Pick parlay shots. I also might play more legs every once in a while. I also bet, sell and give out free picks everyday
This video has actually been perspective and possibly life changing. Or at least a lightbulb moment. Because it finally connected and clicked everything I’ve been learning. I hit most of my bets in parlays but usually miss by one or two. I can get my money back with the majority and make small amounts that will accumulate overtime. I got into a little fuck up that this seller sounded convincing but he’s literally just selling the bets I usually pick any way and does a great job with his pitching and promises. But it finally hit I’m literally paying, insanely overpaying for picks I can pick myself and most of the time have, and multiple times have decided not to listen to his picks because they dont seem convincing due to my knowledge of the actual sport. I’ve been with them for two weeks. My question: is there anything I should or need to know to cut ties with them? In case they try a different angle to rip me off even more? I feel like now I know better and wouldve never gotten into it. So I wanna make sure theres no knowledge I could know going into that cancellation. My fear is they’ll claim some buyout or close out fee or some bs. Thanks in advance
Don’t get ahead of yourself cause once you’re cashing out all these little wins the book will cut that shit off in a heartbeat. Your cash out button will no longer be available. But what you explained by missing one on your card 95% of the time should explain why parlay betting isn’t ever going to make long term money. There’s a really good reason why every Sportsbook commercial is jamming parlay betting down your throat. Why you ask? CAUSE THATS WHERE THEY MAKE BILLIONS on us. Go look at all your “profit boosts” for example, they give you a 50% boost but it’s gotta be 3 to 4 legs+ and most times 4 or more with odds that they control which are usually -250 or better. This pushes the odds WAY into their favor because you can’t go in there and have a 4 leg bet on shit that has a 75% chance or better of happening. So betting 4 legs+ with a 50% chance of hitting gives you a 10% or less chance of all of those games cashing. Can you hit some parlays? Sure you can but long term and it won’t take long to see that you will lose 500 for every 100 you win.
Best way is you like a team Saturday at -275 let's say and Sunday at -200. Parlay em together at around +110....A lot people can't wait till the next day to wait for game #2 tho , if patient plus use handicapping and math , you can hit 65% but many want to do 6 teamers and 10 teamers and can't wait 🫸
Secret is to devise a system and stick to it and you must be disciplined maximize your wins and minimize your losses and remember sometimes you're the bug and sometimes you're the windshield
I stick to straight bets. I do parlays for fun. Sometimes I hit them most of the time I lose by one leg. Do yourself a favor and stick to a straight or a 2 legged max!
My parlays always lose by 1, a straight bet or a 2 teamer is my go to. I place ALOT of parlays and they do pay a shit ton but most of them are extremely hard to hit ask anyone. Don’t come in here thinking I don’t know what I’m talking about. I hit multiple parlays all the time and I post them to. 🫡
Here you go: oddsjam.com/betting-calculators/implied-probability That is an implied probability converter and will convert any odd into probability for you.
If your disadvantage compounds in parlays, making it a really bad bet in that scenario, does that mean its the opposite when you're at the advantage making parlays even better than the single bet?
Is taking a promo boost on a parlay a good idea when you are already at +225 to get the number higher or should a boost be save for when you make a parlay that is still low (like a +100) to increase that one? Thank you in advance
Unless you’re super new or your account is super new, the Sportsbook isn’t gonna let you use a profit boost on something that is +100 or even +250. Most of your boosts are gonna require a minimum of +3-400 odds to qualify from my experience. I’d check the requirements you have to meet on your boosts
Hello so I am relatively new to sports betting and have a question a lot of apps have discounts with high value but you also have shown that in apps like prize picks playing 5/6 leg flex is the best Ik 2 leg power is considered bad you need closer to like 58% win rate per leg But if you have taco which should be closer to 66% and some other 50% slip We should barely be profitable or is it not worth going after this and instead we continue with 5-6 leg assuming we find value in that many legs?
My main issue with 6 legs are unless I have a corro play that Variance is super high which I generally don’t like It’s harder to find 5 different picks plus the promo that will hit for 6 leg
Link is in the pinned comment. Oddsjam offers the sportsbook screen which gives you real-time access to all the lines from every sportsbook available in your area.
Sometimes when using the parlay building on Oddsjam, the parlay odds displayed in the sportsbook (usually Draftkings) are different than displayed on Oddsjam, even if each individual leg's odds are the same as displayed on Oddsjam. I don't place those bets unless I have a substantial promotion. Do you know why this happens? I've assumed Draftkings is just giving unfair odds
I tried to do a parlay with the San Francisco New York Jets game, but the multiple button was grayed out and unelectable. Is it because Bovada knew that that parlay would work out?
They typically won't allow parlays in which the legs have some sort of "synergy" with each other. In formal statistics, these events are "not independent" from each other, which means the probability of Event A happening is affected (dependent) on whether or not Event B happened. For example, if you tried to parlay: Kittle Rec TD +0.5 Aiyuk Rec TD +0.5 Purdy Pass TD +1.5 These probably range from -150 to +300. But for simplicity sake, let's say all 3 legs were +100 (50%) each. You might expect the payout to be (50% x 50% x 50%) = 12.5% = +700. Let's say we know that both players have caught a TD. The probability that Purdy also has thrown for 2 TDs is 100% (assuming no injuries or trick plays, so in reality say closer to 99%). The problem is that 25% of the time the first two legs both hit, and in those cases the 3rd leg will also have already hit. This essentially means that the 3rd leg doesn't matter. We only need the first two legs to hit to win the bet. You would essentially be betting on the same thing twice. The real probability for all 3 legs to hit is IF(50% x 50%) THEN(100%) = 25% = +300 The book is not going to offer you +700 on what should be a +300 parlay. (Casinos are not in the business of losing money) I have not seen any books that will allow you to pair QB PASS TD with any REC TD for the same team, regardless of where the line is at for each player. This is a very simple example, but there are certainly other more complex scenarios that books will not accept for the same reason. Hope this makes sense :)
Assuming every book had the same odds, this would be true. But if every book has a line -150 and it's -110 on FanDuel, then it's not 50%. It's above 50%
Hi Alex, which would you consider higher value: if PP has a points line at 21.5 and all the sports books have it at 22.5 -110 on the over or PP is 22.5 with the other books but the books are around -145 on the over? Basically how much do you value a point in comparison to the juice?
That is a great question. I definitely think I would take the point higher in this case. Especially if those other books are juicing it that much, because at least then you can still get better value on PP adding it to a 5/6 pick.
No, you can use the OddsJam Implied Probability Calculator to do the conversions for you (oddsjam.com/betting-calculators/implied-probability), but here is the math for that hypothetical parlay: (-215) 68.25% x (-215) 68.25% x (-180) 64.29% = 29.95% = +234 Odds Your win probability for that parlay would be roughly 12% if you just picked it blindly (50% x 50% x 50%). You'd need to win 30% of the time to break even. In order to ensure long-term profitability with a parlay like that, you'd need to find plays for each of those legs that are winning at a higher rate than the odds for the play. For example, on a -215 play, you'd need to find a play that's winning at a higher rate than 68.25% of the time. This is what the OddsJam Positive EV Tool helps you do. It compares all sportsbooks lines and prices and helps you find plays that have a mathematical edge (i.e the probability of that play winning is higher than the odds the sportsbook is offering). I did a deep dive on how positive ev betting works here: th-cam.com/video/yCNtNFhZH3Q/w-d-xo.html
@@OddsJam ok, so basically if i had a 3 leg parlay , one play at -215, (68% win prop) i would have to have another play in that 3 leg parlay higher then -215, say -280(73% win prob) and for the last play higher then -280?
What I usually do is look throughout the whole season and scrounge my ev app for plays on any line where people have lost it 5 times out of their 50 past games, stuff like that, I’ll add 2-3 bets into a parlay, try to find the best odds for my parlay in whichever app, -250ish for the 3x,,, then I’ll find someone with a line at -115ish odd that contains +EV and create a 3-5 leg parlay that’s statistically likely to win. You’ll have 3 bets that are basically sealed unless they get benched, hurt, or any unexpected variable, then let’s say , dejounte Murray under 15.5 assists and rebounds, (-115) for the game tonight, and it’ll take your parlay odds to +150ish or so. Place your unit, and there ya go.
@@kylelangley606this is very efficient cause i actually use this method and it’s pretty sound and consistent though there is still the chance of losing every so often but im with you bih
I hate when I lose the last leg of my parleys multiple plays 2 3 4 5 teamers for example in the last drive after being up all game standing in line to cash out 😢😮
You have a fundamental misunderstanding of how sports betting works and yet you speak with such certainty. The good news is we have plenty of resources to help better inform you, as I suspect your problem is more to do with ignorance than intelligence.
OddsJam Positive EV Tool: tryoddsjam.com/5ri
OddsJam Fantasy Screen: tryoddsjam.com/nmk
All sportsbook sign-up bonuses in your location: tryoddsjam.com/us2
OddsJam Arbitrage Betting Tool: tryoddsjam.com/nlt
email: Alex@OddsJam.com
This made me more confused, Tell me this I just hit on 41 out of a 42 leg parlay in college football , what are the odds on that , I know my shit in football . I do it all the time I always wind up losing only 1 leg !
Just say multibet.. easier for more people to understand. Then narrow it down.
Me watching this video after placing my 5 parlays 👀🍿
I actually started sports betting with Betr, fanduel just became legal here in NC and ive been doing good. 2 leg and 3 leg parlays are tooo bad but can definitely be stressful. Im picking the highest probability odds in each legs though . Last night i was down until the end of the lakers game where i finally made my money back and some profit
Sir. Your videos are especially helpful to us newbies in NC which opened last week. Thank you.
Thanks so much for watching!
Hey inbox me for plays
I got lots of plays on deck
Love this … I’m actually hitting parlays too because of you & the math … also , the positive correlation you’ve taught us 💪💰💰
Something thats worked for me is small number of legs maybe 3-4 legs max and I have several rules that have to all be in the recipe to maximize my probability of winning like homefield advantage, the favorite to win and like I said small legs as long as you double your investment who care if you make a small amount you wom
Nice!
3+ legs are a lot. The odds drop tremendously when you go past 2 legs.
@@dwiii1635nope. all depends on if you know how to find value or not 🙂
I love parlays. I use alternatives
This weekend i had lions -14
Texans -2.5
Bengals +7.5
Patriots rams under 56.5
Eagles game over 34.5
Great breakdown of the pros and cons of parlay betting! Really helps to understand when they’re worth the risk. Keep up the awesome content!
When will you sync with Hard Rock?? Want to start a pro version of Pikkit
How do you see the odds between each Sportsbook? Do you manually checking them one by one or there is an app to see all of them lined up like you post it Alex?
Oddsjam. There is a link in the pinned comment where you can try it yourself for free for 7 days. give it a try!
I have had the highest luck so far on parlays, most books offer the first bet with a 40% boost
About 80 to 90 percent of my money is Straight bets / 2 Pick Parlays or Teasers. With Teasers being my fav bet. The other 20 percent I take my 4 Pick parlay shots. I also might play more legs every once in a while. I also bet, sell and give out free picks everyday
This video has actually been perspective and possibly life changing. Or at least a lightbulb moment. Because it finally connected and clicked everything I’ve been learning.
I hit most of my bets in parlays but usually miss by one or two. I can get my money back with the majority and make small amounts that will accumulate overtime.
I got into a little fuck up that this seller sounded convincing but he’s literally just selling the bets I usually pick any way and does a great job with his pitching and promises. But it finally hit I’m literally paying, insanely overpaying for picks I can pick myself and most of the time have, and multiple times have decided not to listen to his picks because they dont seem convincing due to my knowledge of the actual sport. I’ve been with them for two weeks.
My question: is there anything I should or need to know to cut ties with them? In case they try a different angle to rip me off even more? I feel like now I know better and wouldve never gotten into it. So I wanna make sure theres no knowledge I could know going into that cancellation. My fear is they’ll claim some buyout or close out fee or some bs.
Thanks in advance
Don’t get ahead of yourself cause once you’re cashing out all these little wins the book will cut that shit off in a heartbeat. Your cash out button will no longer be available. But what you explained by missing one on your card 95% of the time should explain why parlay betting isn’t ever going to make long term money. There’s a really good reason why every Sportsbook commercial is jamming parlay betting down your throat. Why you ask? CAUSE THATS WHERE THEY MAKE BILLIONS on us. Go look at all your “profit boosts” for example, they give you a 50% boost but it’s gotta be 3 to 4 legs+ and most times 4 or more with odds that they control which are usually -250 or better. This pushes the odds WAY into their favor because you can’t go in there and have a 4 leg bet on shit that has a 75% chance or better of happening. So betting 4 legs+ with a 50% chance of hitting gives you a 10% or less chance of all of those games cashing. Can you hit some parlays? Sure you can but long term and it won’t take long to see that you will lose 500 for every 100 you win.
Parlays used to be overwhelming but now not even slightly whelmed
Very helpful thank you.
Best way is you like a team Saturday at -275 let's say and Sunday at -200. Parlay em together at around +110....A lot people can't wait till the next day to wait for game #2 tho , if patient plus use handicapping and math , you can hit 65% but many want to do 6 teamers and 10 teamers and can't wait 🫸
Appreciate your input!
That's an absolute fact
@@mazeratifox7208 ;)
I agree overlays are great I love them just have to have patience
Thats my strategy and it works very well😊
I've made millions betting parleys. Especially when they wasnt popular. I've Mastered parleys with my system.
And yet...you haven't mastered spelling it.
MILLIONS!
Hail to the victors valiant
@@OddsJam I got 99 problems money ain't one💰🎯💯✔🔥
Secret is to devise a system and stick to it and you must be disciplined maximize your wins and minimize your losses and remember sometimes you're the bug and sometimes you're the windshield
Great point :)
I stick to straight bets. I do parlays for fun. Sometimes I hit them most of the time I lose by one leg. Do yourself a favor and stick to a straight or a 2 legged max!
Appreciate you tuning in.
Nope. Parlays have bigger returns and are more profitable. But good luck betting 500$ to win 900$. You gonna lose in the long run my friend
My parlays always lose by 1, a straight bet or a 2 teamer is my go to. I place ALOT of parlays and they do pay a shit ton but most of them are extremely hard to hit ask anyone. Don’t come in here thinking I don’t know what I’m talking about. I hit multiple parlays all the time and I post them to. 🫡
Great video. Appreciate the info!
So on PrizePicks sleeper and betr it just has the x multiplier how do you do the math on these?
Good question.
If I get an OddsJam Account in Maryland, can I use the same account when I visit another state?
Yes, you can use OddsJam in any state that you travel to.
I got lots of games on deck so you can bet on them inbox me
What does a -500, -143,-220@ +116 convert to show me exactly please
Here you go: oddsjam.com/betting-calculators/implied-probability
That is an implied probability converter and will convert any odd into probability for you.
i love parlays
What site at the end is used to show all the different sports books odds?
Oddsjam. There's a link in the pinned comment to try it out for free for 7 days.
I would rather be lucky then good when I bet
Exactly!
Underrated comment 💵
If your disadvantage compounds in parlays, making it a really bad bet in that scenario, does that mean its the opposite when you're at the advantage making parlays even better than the single bet?
Exactly. Edge compounds if you're bets are good. So it's easier to have a higher ROI betting parlays (in terms of percentage). Just more variance.
Is taking a promo boost on a parlay a good idea when you are already at +225 to get the number higher or should a boost be save for when you make a parlay that is still low (like a +100) to increase that one?
Thank you in advance
Unless you’re super new or your account is super new, the Sportsbook isn’t gonna let you use a profit boost on something that is +100 or even +250. Most of your boosts are gonna require a minimum of +3-400 odds to qualify from my experience. I’d check the requirements you have to meet on your boosts
What app or site did you use for all the different odds for sportsbooks
Oddsjam! Link in description for a 7-day free trial
Where are you comparing all of the odds on all of the apps?
OddsJam! Link in pinned comment and description for a 7-day free trial
Very informative video, thanks!
Thanks for watching!
Hello so I am relatively new to sports betting and have a question
a lot of apps have discounts with high value but you also have shown that in apps like prize picks playing 5/6 leg flex is the best
Ik 2 leg power is considered bad you need closer to like 58% win rate per leg
But if you have taco which should be closer to 66% and some other 50% slip
We should barely be profitable or is it not worth going after this and instead we continue with 5-6 leg assuming we find value in that many legs?
My main issue with 6 legs are unless I have a corro play that
Variance is super high which I generally don’t like
It’s harder to find 5 different picks plus the promo that will hit for 6 leg
Email us contact@oddsjam.com
What website or tool can I use that lists all the odds from different sportbooks?
Link is in the pinned comment. Oddsjam offers the sportsbook screen which gives you real-time access to all the lines from every sportsbook available in your area.
Parlaying anything off the positive ev page is profitable Alex correct?
Yes
@@OddsJamdo u do it at times?
You're just getting extra value with +EV legs. So the payout will be more "if" your bet wins. Bets are only profitable if they win.
@@OddsJamIt's not guaranteed profitable it just gives you more expected value on winning bets. The legs still have to hit to be profitable lol
Sometimes when using the parlay building on Oddsjam, the parlay odds displayed in the sportsbook (usually Draftkings) are different than displayed on Oddsjam, even if each individual leg's odds are the same as displayed on Oddsjam. I don't place those bets unless I have a substantial promotion. Do you know why this happens? I've assumed Draftkings is just giving unfair odds
Are any of them SGP's? Could be docking you for correlation.
@@OddsJam Yes they're always SGP, thanks
I like betting live parlays
Nice!
You the goat 🐐
I tried to do a parlay with the San Francisco New York Jets game, but the multiple button was grayed out and unelectable. Is it because Bovada knew that that parlay would work out?
Sportsbooks have certain markets they won't let you parlay together. It varies from book to book.
They typically won't allow parlays in which the legs have some sort of "synergy" with each other.
In formal statistics, these events are "not independent" from each other, which means the probability of Event A happening is affected (dependent) on whether or not Event B happened.
For example, if you tried to parlay:
Kittle Rec TD +0.5
Aiyuk Rec TD +0.5
Purdy Pass TD +1.5
These probably range from -150 to +300. But for simplicity sake, let's say all 3 legs were +100 (50%) each.
You might expect the payout to be (50% x 50% x 50%) = 12.5% = +700.
Let's say we know that both players have caught a TD. The probability that Purdy also has thrown for 2 TDs is 100% (assuming no injuries or trick plays, so in reality say closer to 99%).
The problem is that 25% of the time the first two legs both hit, and in those cases the 3rd leg will also have already hit.
This essentially means that the 3rd leg doesn't matter. We only need the first two legs to hit to win the bet. You would essentially be betting on the same thing twice.
The real probability for all 3 legs to hit is IF(50% x 50%) THEN(100%) = 25% = +300
The book is not going to offer you +700 on what should be a +300 parlay. (Casinos are not in the business of losing money)
I have not seen any books that will allow you to pair QB PASS TD with any REC TD for the same team, regardless of where the line is at for each player.
This is a very simple example, but there are certainly other more complex scenarios that books will not accept for the same reason.
Hope this makes sense :)
Game probably started
I used bovada won 871 Monday off 10 leg parley
Aren't -110 bets actually 50% because of the vig?
Assuming every book had the same odds, this would be true. But if every book has a line -150 and it's -110 on FanDuel, then it's not 50%. It's above 50%
Hi Alex, which would you consider higher value: if PP has a points line at 21.5 and all the sports books have it at 22.5 -110 on the over or PP is 22.5 with the other books but the books are around -145 on the over? Basically how much do you value a point in comparison to the juice?
That is a great question. I definitely think I would take the point higher in this case. Especially if those other books are juicing it that much, because at least then you can still get better value on PP adding it to a 5/6 pick.
For the past 3 weeks I have been losing parlys. I am in a 10 games losing streak with parlys!
Sorry to hear that :(
@@OddsJam yes, it sucks!
so if you had a 3 leg parlay with say -215, -215, -180. for the lines on your picks. is it fair to say that the win probability is in your favor?
No, you can use the OddsJam Implied Probability Calculator to do the conversions for you (oddsjam.com/betting-calculators/implied-probability), but here is the math for that hypothetical parlay:
(-215) 68.25% x (-215) 68.25% x (-180) 64.29% = 29.95% = +234 Odds
Your win probability for that parlay would be roughly 12% if you just picked it blindly (50% x 50% x 50%). You'd need to win 30% of the time to break even. In order to ensure long-term profitability with a parlay like that, you'd need to find plays for each of those legs that are winning at a higher rate than the odds for the play. For example, on a -215 play, you'd need to find a play that's winning at a higher rate than 68.25% of the time.
This is what the OddsJam Positive EV Tool helps you do. It compares all sportsbooks lines and prices and helps you find plays that have a mathematical edge (i.e the probability of that play winning is higher than the odds the sportsbook is offering). I did a deep dive on how positive ev betting works here: th-cam.com/video/yCNtNFhZH3Q/w-d-xo.html
@@OddsJam ok, so basically if i had a 3 leg parlay , one play at -215, (68% win prop) i would have to have another play in that 3 leg parlay higher then -215, say -280(73% win prob) and for the last play higher then -280?
What I usually do is look throughout the whole season and scrounge my ev app for plays on any line where people have lost it 5 times out of their 50 past games, stuff like that, I’ll add 2-3 bets into a parlay, try to find the best odds for my parlay in whichever app, -250ish for the 3x,,, then I’ll find someone with a line at -115ish odd that contains +EV and create a 3-5 leg parlay that’s statistically likely to win. You’ll have 3 bets that are basically sealed unless they get benched, hurt, or any unexpected variable, then let’s say , dejounte Murray under 15.5 assists and rebounds, (-115) for the game tonight, and it’ll take your parlay odds to +150ish or so. Place your unit, and there ya go.
@@kylelangley606this is very efficient cause i actually use this method and it’s pretty sound and consistent though there is still the chance of losing every so often but im with you bih
GO BUCKS!!!
I hate when I lose the last leg of my parleys multiple plays 2 3 4 5 teamers for example in the last drive after being up all game standing in line to cash out 😢😮
Always tough!
Great video
Love the hat, my friend!
I'm really wondering why Americans use those wierd odds instead of using decimal odds like the rest of the world.
Lol!
Because it’s easier, duh.
No mention of teasers or correlated parlays lol
All -110 bets do not come up too +264 lol
So… you’re saying there’s a chance? Always a possibility to win the wager… 🤑
Absolutely!
PaRR-LaYYY
any strategy? omg
Once you put profitable and parlay in same sentence then you lose all credibility
You have a fundamental misunderstanding of how sports betting works and yet you speak with such certainty. The good news is we have plenty of resources to help better inform you, as I suspect your problem is more to do with ignorance than intelligence.
When you say nothing at all :) what a waste of time...