What is the Actual Probability that a Marriage Will End in Divorce?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 ธ.ค. 2017
- This video discusses the topic of the divorce rate and the probability that a marriage will end in divorce. For a number of years, research indicated that about 50% of all marriages would end in divorce. That statistic has been challenged recently. Some say the statistic is closer to 40% or 45%. There is evidence to support both theories, however, there is no strong evidence to suggest the 50% is no longer true. First, second, and third marriages have different probabilities of divorce (42%, 60%, & 73% respectively). Higher income, higher education, and getting married later are associated with a decreased probability of divorce.
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Bigger question, what is the % of happily married couples. My guess the % is very low.
Rod Clarkson is there such thing? It’s probably only the 80 year old couples that have been childhood friends their whole lives and are now roommates
Rod Clarkson
80% of married people are unhappy (54% so unhappy they divorce- rest just stay miserable and stay married)
@@stressfree9780 exactly right, the rest just stay miserable and married. they tolerate each other because, they are both too old to look for a replacement and, in their head, it is better than being alone. being alone is too scary. so they just wait together for the lights to go out because they have no real alternatives. people really believe that all those who have stayed together for a long time are really "happy" in the relationship. they, like little kids, believe in the eternal love and all that other crap they've been told from birth. people are just fucking naive and they love romanticizing every stupid shit in this world. they love believing in fairy tales just to feel good inside.
If they are unhappy will they admit it?
1% of marriages are happy sadistically but I'm sure you'll beat the odds 😆
Even among the couples that stay married, many have problems in their marriage. Some stay together for the sake of their children for example. Others don't believe in divorce or just try to coexist peacefully. So in my view it's more complicated than just the divorce rate. If instead you ask what percent end up in a truly happy marriage, the odds are even worse.
RJ Walker no, it’s not. I know it’s hard to believe, but a lot of people are happily married.
If you’re expecting to be happy through being married alone, you won’t achieve that fulfillment. You need to learn to be grateful and more appreciative of live
Should I get married or buy a lottery ticket?
Like Dr. Grande said, divorce is very complex. It is difficult to pick which factors will lead to divorce on a universal basis.
Thank you. There are so many factors influencing divorce that I haven't really thought too much about it, but I am very interested in your thoughts about serial monogamy--the people that marry and divorce or have similar arrangements multiple times.
the reason the divorce rate has dropped is because the marriage rate has dropped.
Note that these statistics are specific to the US. Some countries are similar (e.g. Scandinavian countries) while others are significantly lower by a factor of 5-6 times. Culture appears to play an important role.
Good to note. Culture does play a big role.
Yes, western culture has been destroyed by third wave feminism. Marriage and birth rates have slowly declined since the late 1960s. I believe the birth rate is 1.7 in the US. You need 2.1 to replace the current population. Little boys in school who are taught by feminists are placed on ritilan because they can’t sit still as long as the girls can. Then when they get to high school they are told they all are responsible for female oppression throughout the last century, and if they protest they are told they are showing micro aggression and male toxicity. If they get a job the me too movement gets them fired if they talk or even look at a girl that happens to be a co-worker. If they go to college they are told they are all rapists and are kicked out of college or have their degrees withheld. Only females get to graduate from college unless you choose a STEM field degree at a university which does not have female professors. Even then your degree can get withheld by some femanazi administrator in the registries office. As a boy more than likely you were raised by a single mother who is demanding you get married after you have been kicked out of college and the work place. She does not want you to continue to live in her basement playing Xbox until your 40 like all the other boys on the block. You look at your older brother who is divorced and in jail because he could not afford to pay alimony child support and still have enough to eat. Your father was probably divorce raped by your mother, and then divorce raped a second time by his second wife. He probably lives in an efficiency apartment or if he outdoorsy a van down by the river. Even if you wanted to subject yourself to being divorce raped, it does not matter because you are not the part of the 666 men that 100% of all the hegemony females are after. Women only want 6 foot tall 6 pack abs, and six figure salaries no matter what the female looks like because all of them are Disney princesses in their minds. If they manage to snag one of these 5% exclusive males they can’t wait to divorce rape them and start the cycle over again. Then after females turn 35 they write article after article asking where all the good men have gone, and are utterly clueless about the 30,000 men that are killing themselves per year. If women are not happy with living with their cats then maybe they also join the 8100 per year of women killing themselves.
When this cycle repeats enough times our population in the west will shrink, and the middle eastern philosophy will prevail. It may happen quicker if AI is developed and men start to only have relationships with fembots. These “Woke” feminists like Elizabeth Banks might get to enjoy their cats for a little while, but Burkas might become their only fashion choice. All western men will of course be dead at that time. All this at the feet feminism which is just another word for communism.
Culture does NOT play a big role. Although I think there must be exceptions to some degree.Yes, it influences the outcomes, but the main driver here is people are quite good at adapting to ever changing playground.
Before saying "Culture appears...", first it is important to research the marital laws, economy and other things of those countries. Only under high pressure from society people will do something that is not beneficial to them in one way or another.
Ad_infinitum_sq
U should check your stats all countries are all catching up
Arab countries which use to be very low- now are catching up really fast
I agree that there are way too many factors to consider when looking into divorce rates. It is very hard to say that the probability of divorce is 50% when there are way too many factors to look at, such as having children, age of marriage, economic class, etc. I would love to read more research in this.
It would be good to know if things have changed since the 70s and 80s.
There's one 100% predictor that your marriage is doomed. It's the feeling of contempt towards your spouse.
An increasing number of couples can’t afford marriage. Scale divorce rate with marriage rate.
The regression line needs to highlight major changes in the system, namely state-by-state no-fault divorces. The system is unstable in that regard.. It would not be fair to compare stats of 0% no-fault divorces with 100%. Giiven that women generally file the no-faults, and it's pretty much guaranteed that men lose, the risk is simply too high for men to sign up. In theory, nothing is stopping every single married woman from filing some day, and winning.
Actually It's 92% that a marriage will not survive 10 years. Not your value. The 50% is per year odds of marriage divorcing in a given year.
yeah and 2nd 3rd 4th ect. marriages are thrown back into the still married category. the common belief is extremely misleading
Yea. Where did you get this info?
Psychology Today can back this up. They have been posting articles on this since at least December of 2015. So the original poster is quite right.
A lot of divorces happen in the "rinse and repeat" population. If you take that into account, you realize that the "half of all marriages end in divorce" numbers are severely skewed. People need to look at the real numbers, how many first marriages DON'T end in divorce.
1 of many problems is.. the other partner or maybe both, do not want to listen and understand.
Fewer people have been getting married post 2000 than in previous decades, so the divorce rate is lower.
I have read numerous articles on divorce and found another shocking statistic. Of the 50% of divorces within the first marriage, about 70% are initiated by women. This tells me that women more times than not say "Yes" when a man asked them "the question" but really have no love for him. Then fast forward a few years, she divorces him because she never loved him to begin with.
Yeah I agree with this statement since I am a woman.
personal experience huh
Well you came close but the real answer is perhaps many women aren't capable of love in the same way you think of as love. They experience more of an 'admiration' type sensation, which can quickly decline when they see the reality of the person they once admired, who is vulnerable and insecure just like everyone else.
Unfortunately, this is true. Beware men..be very careful.
I recall when 'cohabitation' was becoming common in the 80's, and the claim was that it would be a trial-union and would limit divorce. The pop sociologists and culture warriors were quite adamant. Well....
Cohabitation is a lie straight from hell.
@@amazinggrace313 Get off your high horses. The same factors that predict one predict the other as well. People having trouble forming strong bonds are exactly what you should predict would do both.
How about just the fact that people are living a hell of a lot longer now compared to even just a century ago?
The percentage of married couples after 50 years is 7%. The divorce rate is 93%.
80 % ?
I am getting close to my 39th anniversary. There were some bumps in the road but we’re quite happy. But divorce is ancient. It is found in the code of Hammurabi. That code is about3,700 years old.
It is good to go over these statistics and it is certainly more interesting to hear them in a video than it might be to look them up.
Thanks Dr. Grande for another great video and discussion on these important topics.
I honestly would like to know what the MGTOW men would say if a woman asked them directly if they think it was the wide spread use of artificial birth control that ruined relationships between men and women in general in society. To me those changes made it so men and women had reason to cease trusting each other, somehow.
Is society for these MGTOW men to navigate more difficult now because women have careers? Did the careers or divorce or birth control come first?
Things changed so much in the late 70's. I would like to see year by year with a timeline of certain reproductive news from that era which was roughly when I was done with high school and all the girls were having sex outside of marriage when everything and people's purposes for doing any thing changed.
You were expected to have sex with guys you dated. How ridiculous is that? I dont think women in the previoys decades had the exact same amount of pressure and subsequent poor and non existent offers for marriage of those years.
Sorry my writing is poor. It is not easy to edit on the phone.
As a MGTOW man, I can tell you the problem is not women with careers. Most MGTOW men that I know have no problem with women working and having a career over a family if that is what she chooses. The problem is one that you hint at with birth control. Birth control hormones have a direct scientific impact on the ability of women to pair bond with their partner. A bigger problem than all that however is the overall attitude in the western world found in both men and women that have a total lack of loyalty. Today no one believes in being loyal and honest in anything. That contributes more to problems between men and women than anything else.
I'm not surprised that the rate of divorce increases with subsequent marriages. After going through it before, its possible that people are less willing to allow themselves to be dragged through another negative situation. I would however think that people would be extremely cautious when selecting a second mate for marriage.
Nobody's perfect, so it follows that the same irreparable flaws in character that caused the first divorce (in at least one of the couple) will inevitably lead to a second, third, forth, etc. divorce. It's like a used car that keeps having problems (e.g. constantly staling) that goes through multiple owners and is constantly resold.
NEVER MARRY UNLESS SHE SIGNS A PRENUPTIAL AGREEMENT AND PERSONAL CONTRACT THAT YOUR ATTORNEY WROTE UP STOPPING ALL LOOPHOLES IN THE STATE YOU LIVE IN! In the event of a divorce she takes her assets and debt she had previously before and during the marriage and the man takes his, and part their ways. NOBODY TAKES THE OTHER PERSONS MONEY AND NOBODY INHERITS THE OTHER PERSONS DEBT.
This should be an obligation for EVERYONE to have a prenuptial agreement and personal contracts that waive any bs loopholes in each states laws that can and will screw over the man.
If everyone did this, there would be a whole whole lot less marriages and divorces happening because PEOPLE WOULD BE GETTING MARRIED FOR THE RIGHT REASON. This would prove whether or not you just love each other and want to be together. This would prove that there is NO HIDDEN MOTIVE or NO HIDDEN PLAN B so that in the event of a divorce the woman doesn't get away with your money and assets as well as you inheriting half of her debt. This would also totally eradicate MOST ALL trust issues and insecurities.
I have NEVER married but I know that this is THE ONLY WAY to go about marriage in today's world. We have to be 100% REALISTIC, PRACTICAL AND LOGICAL.
THIS IS EXTREMELY SERIOUS!
THIS IS NOT A GAME!
THIS IS NOT TO BE TAKEN LIGHTLY!
MEN, WE MUST PROTECT OURSELVES AND NEVER SET OURSELF UP TO BE DESTROYED BY WOMEN. IT'S TIME TO TAKE OUR POWER BACK! THE SYSTEM HAS COMPKETELY RUINED A MAN'S EQUAL STANDING IN MARRIAGE AND DIVORCE! THE SYSTEM HAS DESTROYED OUR MANPOWER AND IT WAS DONE ON PURPOSE! FIGHT BACK BY BEING WISE AND DOING EXACTLY WHAT I SAID ABOVE!!!!
I'm a 68 year old women (no kids, I hate kids) and I never got married. Getting married puts any money you have at risk. The marriage laws are written so that you are responsible for your spouses debts, at the very least insofar as the money you earned while married. Under threat of death I would not get married. My current partners and I have been together 15 years. I expect we will stay together, but I told him when we met I would never marry him. Frankly, I don't think anyone should get married. It's not an advantage and it's a pain to get out of.
You need two lawyers..one a divorce lawyer, to setup a prenup. A second lawyer, a probate lawyer. A probate lawyer usually handles a deceased person will. Not let me explain, they also experience in setting up trust. You need to put a large about of your assets like home and stocks in a trust. You control the trust but dont own it. See where im getting..😀
awake_more _than_ever
This is best advice - every man must do !!!!!
How many marriages last for 20 years or at least to when the children grow up and leave the nest? And this genration seems to prefer shacking up instead of getting married, and who knows how many of them last.
Many things are dressed well . Ya dig ?
No mention of stats on 1 spouse already having children, and the other not ... & my educated guess is those marriages have very high divorce rates. No surprise it's very hard to find stats on this very common type of marriage, given it's likely the woman who already has kids vs the man (childless Brad with a low SMV most likely to marry into this situation). Saying single moms are anything but "top tier" in the dating/marriage market would be committing woke blasphemy ... hence why I imagine the good Dr. here chose to mention mental health instead.
I've been telling young men who're seeking a longterm relationship, to ask their prospective partner to "Sell" the idea of Marriage to them.
It's a Hard Sell, let me tell you, but it has helped a lot of guys realise, that for them, it's a nil sum game, that they can only lose at.
A study by Millennials concluded, that "Relationships, Marriage and Children, were the Worst Possible
moves a young male could make", who wished to succeed and flourish.
The reason for that of course is because of Matrimonial Laws throttle men in court, and unstable women's accusations in the #Me Too era affords them zero protection and their protagonist no punishment.
first rule should be that each child gets paternity tested . the 2nd is that the husband not be made to pay for another man's child. the 3rd is that the husband can divorce the cheating wife while she has to forfeit everything except what she brought into the marriage
social media plus woman having no incentive to behave will increase divorce rates
The reason divorce is on the rise is us men want younger hotter women and we get flirted with all time so yeah we just keep going after the 18 year old Chics lmao 🤣 😆 😉
Women do carry in themselves by default a build-in destruction-mechanism, regards to relations and marriage , who is affecting men , such as :
1) Young Women's beauty and romantic-behavior does decay fast , just over few years.
2) Women will hit 2 Walls : the 1st Wall at , or prior to their 30s.
3) Childbirth , which does accelerate the destruction effects from the 1st Wall
4) Children , who activate women's maternal instinct , where women always priorities child-concern and neglect or ignore the need and desires from their husbands.
5) The 2nd Wall ( menopause ) at mid to end. 40s , in some cases earlier. In case , that women are childless , the 2nd Wall appears much sooner -- the negative paradoxum of women's nature. As out-come from that year long (!) Transformation-Process from the Menopause , most likely a fat + nagging monster comes out.
This is by Nature a given destruction-process , men's feelings will not survive that female decay-process and it is the reason why marriages MUST FAIL. MUST FAIL. MUST FAIL.
Entrenched Mgtow marriage is the biggest joke of a business transaction if there ever was. At least after women get off the carousel they will be miserable for choosing their careers because not even a beta bux would wed that. I feel _almost_ bad for them, because letting them make their own choices is like giving a 3 year old a loaded shotgun and not expecting it to go off
@@hopefullyanonymous3466
Incles and most of beta males will always be ready and happy getting in a relationship with women regardless of their age and fucked up history, especially when they find an old used "stacy" who is ONLY NOW willing to let them buy a ticket to her used vagina. This is pretty sad and pathetic.. but it's the reality.
You are quite close to being correct. A bigger issue at hand however is a complete lack of loyalty and honesty found in both men and women in the western world. However, most men are more honest and loyal than women.
If that was is true, why are women most likely to file for divorce and why does marriage affect men’s mental and physical health positively?