I've been an investor in Tesla because I strongly believe in the company. I've always believed in the stock, but now I don't know whether to re-distribute my $70k portfolio and put some money in Nvidia. Very optimistic for H2. What do you think?
Both stocks have a long term potential. The most important thing is the ratio of the distribution based on the financials of each company. There are many other companies that are also doing well. You could just hire a financial advisor to guide you.
I agree. A financial advisor really does help me do the distribution even between different asset classes. I don't even understand technical financial terms much. I just know I make really good profit, and I don't have to stress myself a lot.
Seriously Gali, I wish you were on these conference calls to add some positive energy to them. Sometimes it seems that Elon and Co's best friend just died while they're answering questions!
Elon probably tired doing quarterly reviews with a bunch of questions about products despite him saying this isn't the forum for new product announcements
you have to understand Elon‘s psychology on this: he hates reporting to anyone, let alone to bankers, he only does this cuz he absolutely has to (publicly traded company), but you can tell he hates the quarterly reporting with every single cell of his being. If his horizon and outlook is 3 to 5 years minimum , quarterly meetings are a total waste of time to be preparing for.
Im sorry to anyone who believes that tesla can not solve autonomy. I just got 12.5, and it was much smoother, accelerated better, and it really felt like I was driving than 12.4. The rate of improvement feels like step change. I am more confident that they will get there in 2025.
they will definitely solve it, but that doesn’t mean that it will survive in this environment and that is the issue evolution is based on the environment and perfectly working FSD still has to survive in the environment that is made by whatever human say is real and that is the dilemma
Our Model Y FSD works great. Do I believe it can leave my driveway goto the airport pickup someone up and deliver them to a destination then return to my house hell no. It’s not even close to doing that. Until it’s 100% perfect not 99.99% 100%, it’s a great drivers assistant. People are sooooo excited when FSD takes them on a drive with only 1 intervention in say 10 miles. Well thats a 100% Robo Taxi fail, what the passenger in the Robo Taxi needs to take over!!!
They can't solve it with the current hardware that is in the cars now. You need more than cameras to go from the current level 2 (that Tesla is now), to level 3, 4 and 5. According to Elon, you don't need anything more than cameras and we can see how that is going. Lawsuits after Lawsuits after Lawsuits.
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Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
She is my family's personal Broker and also a personal Broker to many families in the United states, she is a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in the United States. i endorse her
Elon Musk is the best example of an entrepreneur. Things he has done and will do not only mark new era for technologies, but they surely will open a world of awesome possibilities. Those things take time. I know we all want those things today, but lets be real. There are huge number of companies, governments and rich people who wants him to fail. Which is why no matter how genius he is, how dedicated he is, how optimistic he is. Those things will take time. My advice is. Support him as much as you can. Do not look at just the stock price. That means nothing. His ideas and dedication have no analog nowadays. He is the only one alive billionaire who does not care about money or power (which is the reason he has so much money and power). All he wants is a better future for humans.
Gali great video, love the speed - once we get those ‘likes’ out of there you’re perfect lol…thanks for all your insight and super articulate delivery 👍
I bought in before the Model 3 was a thing and sold when Tesla hit a trillion valuation. The software dev side of me loves the company and its ambitions, but the investor side of me knew that $1t was insanely over priced. I don’t believe FSD is close to release, EV demand is way down and consumers can barely afford Tesla vehicles let alone the price of FSD included. Licensing FSD to other companies is a major win for profits. Even if FSD is completed and approved, nobody can afford it and not everyone trusts Tesla. Getting FSD into commercial vehicles and other brands is the first step to a FSD future and I would buy back in for it
@@MossMini Don't exaggerate. Most people don't work with any machinery in their daily lives, but if you're going to bring walking machines into the home, they need to treated just like a machine in a factory.
Great video, I’m not a fan to Elon but same thoughts here on Tesla. I want to add one more reason to hold Tesla, that Tesla is almost the only company that sails toward the future that we can imagine. NVDA is great if you buy it two year ago,META is great as well if you buy it in the dip, but for now it’s just Tesla.
Just dropping it here, I don't do X/🐦. You said what many of us 💎hands hodlers, with all-in for the original mission would've said to Elon, but he'd never even see it. But you did the right thing, he noticed. Btw, you were the few influencer who made me a believer of Tesla (CNBC appearance) 🙇 🙏
I own a model 3. I know for a fact that Elon's politics are hurting sales. I have v12.4.3, it STILL reads route signs as speed limits! Was a big TSLA fan but I think Optimus will be a failure. Humanoids and machine learning have been around a long time and there's nothing new in this field from Tesla. Imagine trying to do your job with a tele-operated humanoid with those hands, that is where you could employ one, practically nowhere. We saw the video of someone trying to fold a shirt.
good rationale and argument for 10% option prospects for its 5-15 trillion speculation one can make an argument to invest based on that for those of us value investors who like nothing more exciting than Berkshire Hathaway having put in a small amount into Tesla and then so well it makes perfect sense to put 15% of any general total of investment worth into that prospect. That is the point that he has made well
As Elon said, selling FSD to others requires the Tesla processing chip as well. That means for others to offer TFSD (Tesla FSD) as an option they will have to equip ALL the cars with Tesla chips and boards. That's way more revenue than just TFSD software. (Like Intel it will be "Tesla Inside".)
That also gives it a lower probability that FSD on other platforms will actually happen. It's not as easy as installing an app on another car, they actually have to integrate a whole computer + camera system.
@@GaminHasard It's a myth that electric cars and autonomous cars go together. they're completely different parts of a vehicle. literally every modern car can have tesla's FSD. it just needs the identical FSD components as Teslas: 1) cameras, including their positioning, 2) FSD computer, 3) FSD software. The final piece is, of course, the control of the steering wheel, accelerator and brake with FSD computer's outputs, but that's a straightforward integration for any OEM.
@@joost3732 Yes, but the integration, while it's a bunch of work for the OEM, has no technical risk. So it's still way, way, way easier for an OEM than to develop a self-driving system from scratch. So, i think it will happen. OEMs that resist will simply lose the market and become irrelevant. it's a bit like saying that building an army based on gunpowder requires completely different infrastructure ( factories, materials, training, etc.) than an army based on swords and wooden chariots, so let's stick with our brave swordsmen...
By Tesla chips you mean Nvidia chips? And if FSD is licensed to other car makers, does liability remain with Tesla or transfer to the car maker? Or does it apply to both? If my Ford with Tesla FSD drives my family into a concrete barrier, do I sue Ford, Tesla, or both?
I sold my shares before the earnings, make the right choice going by after hours. Best bet is to sell now, rebuy in a year, no point hanging around for no growth years.
Thank you Gali for telling Elon to cool it. I am so disappointed with Elon lately, canceled my Cybertruck, don’t want the attention. I admire his talent but not his insecurity.
Unsubbing from this channel now because of what he said. Hes honestly politically uneducated enough to believe that "Democrats are weaponizing the DoJ" when Donald Trump literally wanted his attorney general Bill Barr, The head of his department of Justice, to be his literal personal attorney? Are you kidding me dude? When Trump and project 2025, and Ivan Raiklin, who is going to be Trump's Secretary of Retribution if he wins the White House, are currently calling for the department of Justice to be directly controlled by the president? He wants to spread fascist lies about Democrats weaponizing the department of Justice as Republicans literally talk about HOW THEY PLAN TO WEAPONIZE THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE? Oh and yes you read that right - Trump plans on having a SECRETARY OF RETRIBUTION. Who has already spoken about how certain people will be rounded up for trees in the minute Trump is made president. Totally not fascist though huh? anti Americans like him...I have no words for. They have no home or place in this nation. I will give him the benefit of the doubt and just assume that he knows ABSOLUTELY NOTHING about US politics, because the alternative is that he's actively and purposely spreading fascist and totalitarian, authoritarian lies and propaganda, which makes him the direct enemy of all patriotic Americans.
11:55 Sorry but i think most get this wrong. I don’t think Tesla will unveil/release a new cheap 25k vehicle in 2025, but just cheaper versions of the Model 3/Y. Why is that: 1. They literally say in the earnings deck that the cost savings of the new vehicles are lower than expected. 2. They also say it will be produced on the same platform, so it can’t be a completely new car but must be quite similar to the 3/Y. 3. The max capacity with these new vehicle(s) is 3 million in total with all models. If it would be a 25k-30k vehicle, it would sell like crazy, +5 million including S, X, 3, Y and Cybertruck. 4. Elon said he does not want to osbourne. So the vehicle won’t be much different from the current 3/Y, but it will just be cheaper to buy them. The osbourne effect would be much lower if the vehicle is a different segment. And the reveal is less then 1 year away. So i‘m quite sure that they just make slightly cheaper/more affordable 3/Y vehicles, maybe selling for 30-35k instead of 40k+ (figures without tax credit or savings).
Great stuff Gali. Fully aligned with your vision for Tesla; current market valuation pricing in the AI options (450B --> 850B), market under-subscribing to the AI options (current valuation should be 850B --> 1.5 T), the AI options being broader and more interesting than all but the most bullish folks are willing to say aloud (xAI driving improved valuation of all areas of Tesla business, including energy, robotaxi, and most especially Optimus and its deeper programmability/customizability/matrix-like ability to add new skills)... its the best company to follow and will continue to be for a LONG time. Enjoy it folks.
Xai didn’t have to be outside of Tesla, it could have been a wholly owned subsidiary with it’s own share structure , allowing new employees the ground floor opportunity they wanted. Tesla share holders are now paying a high price for this oversight.
I'd be ecstatic if Ford licensed Tesla's software. 👍Even as things stand now, frankly, a Maverick is a better fit for my use case than a CyberTruck. A "Lightning" version of the Maverick running on Tesla's software would be perfect. 😀
Great video and insight, Gali. I tend to agree with you on all major points. We should be cautious of becoming overly enthusiastic IMO, but there is also the danger of opportunity cost by being overly skeptical or timid. I think the opportunity here is the tendency of the market to be a bit short sighted - Mr Market doesn’t know how to price such potential step changes in value. Like Musk has said, Tesla should not be valued very highly if it cannot solve autonomy. But if it can, then it will be worth trillions.
When the stock market price goes down, the stock market strengthens, but the main reason for the stock price decrease is the increase of stock members, increasing government debt, lack of fair market value, not following the principle of procurement, increasing management and service costs, not properly preparing plans and policies, and not saving properly. Therefore, the solution is to sell your high-value shares late, lower than the previous price, and then the company will keep the previous position.
Gali, is this really you? Haven't watched you in over a year or so and omg you've finally calmed and slowed down your talking speed I can now keep up with you. I used to jab you now and then about your speech rate and am so glad to that the new you I can now keep up with. 💪
Always love your analysis Gali. Do you have numbers on what the Semi and Cybertruck ramps will add to revenue? Those two plus Shanghai eneegy storage coming online next year should be a pretty significant bump right?
I understand that you want to think and talk positive about Tesla if you have the majority of your savings in Tesla Stock. I sold my Tesla stocks last year, and now I hear what Elon is truly saying. One (long) question. Robotaxi is a great idea on paper. You can make money while you are at work and Tesla could use your GPU to train their AI and Supervised Full self-drive. If you know about people in taxi's, you know that they are dirty and don't care about cleaning if the spill or puke in the car. Who do you know that would want a stranger in their car while they are at work? How is the Robotaxi a TRILLION dollar market when the basics does not make sense? Thank you
The Semi doesn't get attention but could be like Energy and be stable income and revenue growth. If the Gen 3 4680 is as ready-for-prime-time as it appears, it will power Semi's. The first Semi fleet was probably built just to get Semi FSD data. Are FSD Semi's around the corner?
Elon is saying what he always has, no one is paying attention to the energy business and FSD/Optimus justify their valuation. I’d get bored of saying the same thing over and over too.
Don't overread the market 's mind, this market can overvalue a stock for long until some events happens and all bubble dream awaken. One example today is DXCM
Gali, l haven't posted or followed you for a while, but l have always held you in high esteem. Just wanna share that in 2021 when the Optimus was first shown, l immediately ran models on it's contribution to 'Future Passed' Tesla. My conclusions were then shared with my Engineering Colleagues and co-workers where we manufacture/design Electric Wheelchairs in Oz. Even my mentor rejected the Robot to the extent that he believed then and today that it will NEVER happen. The valution concluded the bot brings 10 Trillion just from it ONLY. With a possible 20 Trillion and upto 100 T over the remainder of this Century! This was based on 5 Billion bots, priced at a retail of _equal to or less than $20,000_ . We know this now from Elon, however l believe those numbers on day one were probably the first of their kind in writing anywhere in the World. There are no medals for these.....l expect none. Hold onto your foil hats, and believe the Sun will shine onto a World where Optimus and CYBERCAB change everything we've come to know as Earth and living a full and fullfilled life on this Blue Planet.
Video Video Video you guys are missing the key tech driving $TSLA, no other company has this and is capable of leveraging to cyber-taxi (SS robotaxi) and Optimus
You'l probably get an amortized tooling Model 3/Y body (MAYBE with a revised front?) CASTINGS assembled with Gen 3 parts away from final assembly, ALL combined at that point. Re-geared single motor for "longer legs", [0-60 = 6.9s (Just "Because")] small, lighter pack, but range retained due to the gearing. It's the best, fastest way to the cheapest product using existing, or soon to be mass produced components. "Smaller" would require all new tooling, so unlikely. Also it wouldn't fit the combination of "Existing lines, with Next Gen components"
The hilarious thing is that Optimus succeeding is more probable than FSD. Factories are just way more controlled space than the outside world. So even if FSD craps the bed I’ll sit it out for Optimus. And btw, in a positive scenario those two product growth curves might overlay. That would be a Tsunami the world hasn’t seen yet
You’ve highlighted some good points but what you’ve missed are eps were down 15% for the quarter and 40% down compared to pcp last year. Thats substantial. The EV business is waning. What matters is how competitive they are. Chinese manufacturers are competition killers. Half of Tesla’s sales are in China and the Chinese will keep buying their own compared to Tesla at a price Tesla can’t or won’t be able to compete against. That’s proven by the massive loss in market share from 90% to below 50% now in only a few years. It’s a double whammy for the company. Lower margins on lower sales. Current sales are being artificially induced by cheap financing and cheaper prices. Revenue growth means nothing if net profit growth is not correlated. It’s just means more sales induced by deals. What happens when the nearly $900M of credits are withdrawn? Trump wants Chinese manufacturers onshore. Greater workforce doesn’t do his future Presidency any harm but the Chinese have an even better market at their door step. You see it doesn’t matter if the energy business picks up. The fact is the EV business is suffering so the profit potential is reduced. The other projects like Robotaxis are pie in the sky dreams. Who’s going to charge them? Who’s going to clean them? The puke the stains the rubbish? Then how’s the robot going to access smell? These are basic questions. These are long term projects requiring $100Bs of capital. $30B won’t go far and there’s no guarantee of success. The fact remains that Musk is a very smart businessman and marketer. The EV business was always quite feasible. Robotic dreams aren’t. Robots won’t be doing household chores. In the factory yes elsewhere no. The stock is grossly overpriced on a current PE of 113 at $235 with negative earnings year on year and quarter on quarter this year. There’s so much latitude in the price for collapse but Musk will still mislead shareholders about the facts. He’s buying time ATM. Excuses excuses. He looking into more than just plan B. It’s CDE & F and I’m not sure how that’s going to work out well.. Time will tell but Tesla is a high risk investment that many young naive investors should not be invested in and I get the opinion that you’re one of them.
You're so wrong about Tesla "bringing" this new model next year. Usually when Tesla announces a new car, it's at least two years away until you see it on the street.
Robotaxi isn't a vehicle, it's just an app. On the call today Musk basically said as much when he said every Tesla is a robotaxi. It is just the app to order a Tesla with FSD.
We are at another INFLECTION POINT and I too will be buying more as Tesla has taken a beating. Those who continue to doubt this company will be added to the graveyard of those who missed out or worse bet against them. I am HYPED for what we are going towards and since I've been on this ride since 2014... I can WAIT!
I love how he talks about Tesla in china. I watch china monthly insurance reports and byd is killing it. Tesla is like 12000 to 15000 cars a month since beginning of 2024. That is only 150000 a year. Based on Ives and my calculations they would need to sell 25000 a month. Las t month was 11000
Why don't we see the details from BYD? No split of ICE/ Hybrid/ BEV? WHEN they do that, I will applaud either way. Until then, You may as well be saying "GM did well"
I don't believe in the $25K Tesla because to get to that price point you need to sell very big numbers and to sell very big numbers you need big range and for big range you need a big battery which is at odds with the goal to keep it cheap. FSD...well, that has been at level 2 for so long now that my hunch is that AI just isn't the same thing as real intelligence and digital machines will always struggle in an analog world. Pesky edge cases that can't be solved without real understanding of the world. Tesla bot: problems both on the hard ware and software (AI, no fundamental understanding of the world) side that will always limit its usability. Basically glorified automaton.
You make it the same as the Cab you plan to build MILLIONS of. You add a "Games Console" steering module. You add a SMALL, high density(!) LIGHT, CHEAP battery, which can charge fast, perfect for a "Compact" city car ("Short", not "Small")
@@rogerstarkey5390 The cab won't happen because level 5 autonomy won't happen and the small battery, cheap city car won't happen because the market for low range cars is small so production numbers are small, so the economics won't work out. Model 3 is probably the smallest car for which EV economics work and that already exists.
Some of the biggest selling cars over time (globally) have been small cars designed for short range travel and not cars that most people would consider driving in for 300 plus miles without a stop: - VW Beatle - Fiat 124 incl. as the Lada(various models) , SEAT 124, Tofaş Murat etc. - Ford Fiesta - VW Golf - Citroën 2CV There are plenty of people in the USA thar want a small cheap car who will almost never need to drive more than 100 miles in a day, when they do have that need then might drive their partner's car or hire a car for that rare exception. But Tesla is a global company, and could make a fortune from a shorter range car without selling a single car in the distorted USA market.
ROFLMAO 😂 Remember when this dude used to say we should be able to mine bitcoin in our Teslas? Now he’s saying Tesla should invest in X AI?! 😂 proof that we are at the top of this hype cycle. Sell sell sell!!!
Sure Teslas should pay 10 Times what XAI is worth and make Elon and hes Friends even richer and fuck retail investors over!Like when he bought the worthless solar city for Billions!
What are the following useful for? $30Bn cash. Low debt. Reduced overheads (Staffing levels) Some "updated" products in existing facilities rather than new factories. Diversification into other segments related to Base Utilities. Ongoing Vertical integration. ? They all "Recession Proof" the Company. . He's been WARNING us for years. . Now consider the dominant force in the EV, Battery sectors (Not difficult to guess?) Have you noticed they are Integrating production of certain devices allegedly controlled by others? (You know what/ who?) Preparing (HUGE) new markets? Emerging, Globally, (B*^%CS) ? What will the effect of those markets be on "others" who might try to "persuade" that "dominant force" to change plans? They might find the dominant player says "Fine! you go it alone, we HAVE alternatives"? They might redirect Commodities, etc to those new markets such that when those "others" decide to rejoin the transition, they must deal with the Dominant Player, but the resources are now allocated, not available, or expensive? They may find that Player developing infrastructure for the benefit of those in the "Collective", building transport links (in which they are highly experienced and competent!) thus cementing peaceful trade between those previously in conflict, reducing the requirement for military capacity/ investment.....? "You catch more Flies with Honey than with Vinegar" . There's a Global power shift coming and only some will be prepared.
I've been an investor in Tesla because I strongly believe in the company. I've always believed in the stock, but now I don't know whether to re-distribute my $70k portfolio and put some money in Nvidia. Very optimistic for H2. What do you think?
Both stocks have a long term potential. The most important thing is the ratio of the distribution based on the financials of each company. There are many other companies that are also doing well. You could just hire a financial advisor to guide you.
I agree. A financial advisor really does help me do the distribution even between different asset classes. I don't even understand technical financial terms much. I just know I make really good profit, and I don't have to stress myself a lot.
Could you recommend who you work with please? I'll love to establish contact with her.
Her name is “Annette Christine Conte” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Seriously Gali, I wish you were on these conference calls to add some positive energy to them. Sometimes it seems that Elon and Co's best friend just died while they're answering questions!
right i feel that lol
Elon probably tired doing quarterly reviews with a bunch of questions about products despite him saying this isn't the forum for new product announcements
😂😂
Elon answering questions is like a human having to explain what a Intel pentium 7 chip is to a 🐒 monkey 😮
you have to understand Elon‘s psychology on this: he hates reporting to anyone, let alone to bankers, he only does this cuz he absolutely has to (publicly traded company), but you can tell he hates the quarterly reporting with every single cell of his being. If his horizon and outlook is 3 to 5 years minimum , quarterly meetings are a total waste of time to be preparing for.
Im sorry to anyone who believes that tesla can not solve autonomy. I just got 12.5, and it was much smoother, accelerated better, and it really felt like I was driving than 12.4. The rate of improvement feels like step change. I am more confident that they will get there in 2025.
Save this comment for future Darwin award
The last version. According to Tesla went 360 miles between intervention... How many miles have you experienced. Between intervention with 12.5?
they will definitely solve it, but that doesn’t mean that it will survive in this environment and that is the issue
evolution is based on the environment
and perfectly working FSD still has to survive in the environment that is made by whatever human say is real and that is the dilemma
Our Model Y FSD works great. Do I believe it can leave my driveway goto the airport pickup someone up and deliver them to a destination then return to my house hell no. It’s not even close to doing that. Until it’s 100% perfect not 99.99% 100%, it’s a great drivers assistant. People are sooooo excited when FSD takes them on a drive with only 1 intervention in say 10 miles. Well thats a 100% Robo Taxi fail, what the passenger in the Robo Taxi needs to take over!!!
They can't solve it with the current hardware that is in the cars now. You need more than cameras to go from the current level 2 (that Tesla is now), to level 3, 4 and 5.
According to Elon, you don't need anything more than cameras and we can see how that is going. Lawsuits after Lawsuits after Lawsuits.
Thank god you're not drinking AG1 bro, stay away from it lol
Seriously. Just eat salad, like a human
@@JoelRonishThat's the food my food eats.
😂
I tried it for a few months, and it's incredible how much more energy I have. And I'm already working out and eating healthy.
😂👍
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Elon Musk is the best example of an entrepreneur. Things he has done and will do not only mark new era for technologies, but they surely will open a world of awesome possibilities. Those things take time. I know we all want those things today, but lets be real. There are huge number of companies, governments and rich people who wants him to fail. Which is why no matter how genius he is, how dedicated he is, how optimistic he is. Those things will take time. My advice is. Support him as much as you can. Do not look at just the stock price. That means nothing. His ideas and dedication have no analog nowadays. He is the only one alive billionaire who does not care about money or power (which is the reason he has so much money and power). All he wants is a better future for humans.
Gali great video, love the speed - once we get those ‘likes’ out of there you’re perfect lol…thanks for all your insight and super articulate delivery 👍
I bought in before the Model 3 was a thing and sold when Tesla hit a trillion valuation. The software dev side of me loves the company and its ambitions, but the investor side of me knew that $1t was insanely over priced. I don’t believe FSD is close to release, EV demand is way down and consumers can barely afford Tesla vehicles let alone the price of FSD included. Licensing FSD to other companies is a major win for profits. Even if FSD is completed and approved, nobody can afford it and not everyone trusts Tesla. Getting FSD into commercial vehicles and other brands is the first step to a FSD future and I would buy back in for it
Yes, more like the old school Gali i subbed for.
Your best video since before the bubble
Thanks for always posting these, really appreciate it!
Optimus has less to no regulations compared to cars and FSD.
That's an interesting point!
The T800 says hello.
In Europe it would have to comply with the Machinery Directive, and the Low voltage Directive, and the EMC Directive.
@@brendanpells912 In Europe, one can't walk an inch without some rule and regulations.
EU will try to Unionize robots ?
@@MossMini Don't exaggerate. Most people don't work with any machinery in their daily lives, but if you're going to bring walking machines into the home, they need to treated just like a machine in a factory.
Great video, I’m not a fan to Elon but same thoughts here on Tesla. I want to add one more reason to hold Tesla, that Tesla is almost the only company that sails toward the future that we can imagine. NVDA is great if you buy it two year ago,META is great as well if you buy it in the dip, but for now it’s just Tesla.
Gali's knows Tesla! Very good overview and to the point.
Just dropping it here, I don't do X/🐦. You said what many of us 💎hands hodlers, with all-in for the original mission would've said to Elon, but he'd never even see it. But you did the right thing, he noticed. Btw, you were the few influencer who made me a believer of Tesla (CNBC appearance) 🙇 🙏
Gali disappears and pops back up with the killer hair line. Whatever you’re doing, keep it up.
I own a model 3. I know for a fact that Elon's politics are hurting sales.
I have v12.4.3, it STILL reads route signs as speed limits!
Was a big TSLA fan but I think Optimus will be a failure. Humanoids and machine learning have been around a long time and there's nothing new in this field from Tesla. Imagine trying to do your job with a tele-operated humanoid with those hands, that is where you could employ one, practically nowhere. We saw the video of someone trying to fold a shirt.
good rationale and argument for 10% option prospects for its 5-15 trillion speculation
one can make an argument to invest based on that
for those of us value investors who like nothing more exciting than Berkshire Hathaway having put in a small amount into Tesla and then so well it makes perfect sense to put 15% of any general total of investment worth into that prospect.
That is the point that he has made well
We need a quarterly rap yo
brb writing bars
As Elon said, selling FSD to others requires the Tesla processing chip as well. That means for others to offer TFSD (Tesla FSD) as an option they will have to equip ALL the cars with Tesla chips and boards. That's way more revenue than just TFSD software. (Like Intel it will be "Tesla Inside".)
In gas cars would be difficult to implement maybe.
That also gives it a lower probability that FSD on other platforms will actually happen. It's not as easy as installing an app on another car, they actually have to integrate a whole computer + camera system.
@@GaminHasard It's a myth that electric cars and autonomous cars go together. they're completely different parts of a vehicle. literally every modern car can have tesla's FSD. it just needs the identical FSD components as Teslas: 1) cameras, including their positioning, 2) FSD computer, 3) FSD software. The final piece is, of course, the control of the steering wheel, accelerator and brake with FSD computer's outputs, but that's a straightforward integration for any OEM.
@@joost3732 Yes, but the integration, while it's a bunch of work for the OEM, has no technical risk. So it's still way, way, way easier for an OEM than to develop a self-driving system from scratch. So, i think it will happen. OEMs that resist will simply lose the market and become irrelevant.
it's a bit like saying that building an army based on gunpowder requires completely different infrastructure ( factories, materials, training, etc.) than an army based on swords and wooden chariots, so let's stick with our brave swordsmen...
By Tesla chips you mean Nvidia chips? And if FSD is licensed to other car makers, does liability remain with Tesla or transfer to the car maker? Or does it apply to both? If my Ford with Tesla FSD drives my family into a concrete barrier, do I sue Ford, Tesla, or both?
Elon also called it "cyber-taxi" on this call and then quickly corrected himself to "robot-taxi"
With his pop culture obsession I would have expected it to be called "Robbo-cab".
@@tellyboy17 maga-cab
I sold my shares before the earnings, make the right choice going by after hours.
Best bet is to sell now, rebuy in a year, no point hanging around for no growth years.
Thank you Gali for telling Elon to cool it. I am so disappointed with Elon lately, canceled my Cybertruck, don’t want the attention. I admire his talent but not his insecurity.
Unsubbing from this channel now because of what he said.
Hes honestly politically uneducated enough to believe that "Democrats are weaponizing the DoJ" when Donald Trump literally wanted his attorney general Bill Barr, The head of his department of Justice, to be his literal personal attorney? Are you kidding me dude?
When Trump and project 2025, and Ivan Raiklin, who is going to be Trump's Secretary of Retribution if he wins the White House, are currently calling for the department of Justice to be directly controlled by the president? He wants to spread fascist lies about Democrats weaponizing the department of Justice as Republicans literally talk about HOW THEY PLAN TO WEAPONIZE THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE?
Oh and yes you read that right - Trump plans on having a SECRETARY OF RETRIBUTION. Who has already spoken about how certain people will be rounded up for trees in the minute Trump is made president. Totally not fascist though huh?
anti Americans like him...I have no words for. They have no home or place in this nation.
I will give him the benefit of the doubt and just assume that he knows ABSOLUTELY NOTHING about US politics, because the alternative is that he's actively and purposely spreading fascist and totalitarian, authoritarian lies and propaganda, which makes him the direct enemy of all patriotic Americans.
Fantastic summary thankyou 👋🇦🇺🔥
11:55 Sorry but i think most get this wrong. I don’t think Tesla will unveil/release a new cheap 25k vehicle in 2025, but just cheaper versions of the Model 3/Y. Why is that:
1. They literally say in the earnings deck that the cost savings of the new vehicles are lower than expected.
2. They also say it will be produced on the same platform, so it can’t be a completely new car but must be quite similar to the 3/Y.
3. The max capacity with these new vehicle(s) is 3 million in total with all models. If it would be a 25k-30k vehicle, it would sell like crazy, +5 million including S, X, 3, Y and Cybertruck.
4. Elon said he does not want to osbourne. So the vehicle won’t be much different from the current 3/Y, but it will just be cheaper to buy them. The osbourne effect would be much lower if the vehicle is a different segment. And the reveal is less then 1 year away.
So i‘m quite sure that they just make slightly cheaper/more affordable 3/Y vehicles, maybe selling for 30-35k instead of 40k+ (figures without tax credit or savings).
Wow Gali, talk about pumped. Fantastic logic and rip snorting presentation. Cheers.
💯 x 10 on $tsla own stake in other Elon stuff
Great stuff Gali. Fully aligned with your vision for Tesla; current market valuation pricing in the AI options (450B --> 850B), market under-subscribing to the AI options (current valuation should be 850B --> 1.5 T), the AI options being broader and more interesting than all but the most bullish folks are willing to say aloud (xAI driving improved valuation of all areas of Tesla business, including energy, robotaxi, and most especially Optimus and its deeper programmability/customizability/matrix-like ability to add new skills)... its the best company to follow and will continue to be for a LONG time. Enjoy it folks.
Come try out FSD in the midwest here in Pittsburgh, it's a completely different story. I almost always have more than 1 intervention per ride.
Gali good summary. Best one of the lot. Im buying tomorrow bro
Xai didn’t have to be outside of Tesla, it could have been a wholly owned subsidiary with it’s own share structure , allowing new employees the ground floor opportunity they wanted. Tesla share holders are now paying a high price for this oversight.
I think WS will take everything they have to remove as much retail investors this coming 6 month !
I'd be ecstatic if Ford licensed Tesla's software. 👍Even as things stand now, frankly, a Maverick is a better fit for my use case than a CyberTruck. A "Lightning" version of the Maverick running on Tesla's software would be perfect. 😀
Great video and insight, Gali. I tend to agree with you on all major points. We should be cautious of becoming overly enthusiastic IMO, but there is also the danger of opportunity cost by being overly skeptical or timid. I think the opportunity here is the tendency of the market to be a bit short sighted - Mr Market doesn’t know how to price such potential step changes in value. Like Musk has said, Tesla should not be valued very highly if it cannot solve autonomy. But if it can, then it will be worth trillions.
When the stock market price goes down, the stock market strengthens, but the main reason for the stock price decrease is the increase of stock members, increasing government debt, lack of fair market value, not following the principle of procurement, increasing management and service costs, not properly preparing plans and policies, and not saving properly. Therefore, the solution is to sell your high-value shares late, lower than the previous price, and then the company will keep the previous position.
Gali, is this really you? Haven't watched you in over a year or so and omg you've finally calmed and slowed down your talking speed I can now keep up with you. I used to jab you now and then about your speech rate and am so glad to that the new you I can now keep up with. 💪
Always love your analysis Gali. Do you have numbers on what the Semi and Cybertruck ramps will add to revenue? Those two plus Shanghai eneegy storage coming online next year should be a pretty significant bump right?
You have the best perspective of all the Tesla tubers!
Headlines saying Tesla profits plunged more than 40%. What’s the deal here??
It did fall 49% yoy
the deal is robots and robotaxis. everything else is bullshit
I understand that you want to think and talk positive about Tesla if you have the majority of your savings in Tesla Stock. I sold my Tesla stocks last year, and now I hear what Elon is truly saying.
One (long) question. Robotaxi is a great idea on paper. You can make money while you are at work and Tesla could use your GPU to train their AI and Supervised Full self-drive. If you know about people in taxi's, you know that they are dirty and don't care about cleaning if the spill or puke in the car. Who do you know that would want a stranger in their car while they are at work? How is the Robotaxi a TRILLION dollar market when the basics does not make sense?
Thank you
Remove one time cost for reconstruction what does the leave ? A beat !
Sei un grande
Grazie!
Rivian is also cash poor and needed to raise funds in order to have the financial backing to build their plant in Georgia.
The Semi doesn't get attention but could be like Energy and be stable income and revenue growth. If the Gen 3 4680 is as ready-for-prime-time as it appears, it will power Semi's. The first Semi fleet was probably built just to get Semi FSD data. Are FSD Semi's around the corner?
Off topic but what mac do you use? It looks nice!
love the idea of tsla investing in Xai
The next few years are going to be crazy for Tesla. Also, Happy to see the Hot Sauce Recipes bookmark folder still hanging in there
lol u know it!!!
will you come to Everything Electric Vancouver in September?
If that monthly fsd price could come down to 49.99 id be all over it
Wouldn't make a difference imo. People who see the value already will pay 100 easily. People who are ignorant to it will not pay anything
@@Matzes i don’t think its not seeing value its some of us can’t justify the price for hw much we drive. But a per mile option would be awesome lol
If Tesla offers cheaper insurance with FSD that’ll increase subscription rates immensely.
How about $10 a month?
One can hope you're right..... So I'm all in😊
Good stuff Gali
Were the Cybertruck sales figures split out as a separate item or are they still bundled in with S/X/Semi sales?
Elon is saying what he always has, no one is paying attention to the energy business and FSD/Optimus justify their valuation. I’d get bored of saying the same thing over and over too.
Just picked up another 9 shares pre market after a big dip following earnings call. Thanks everyone who bailed so I could buy at a discount.
Horrible earnings. More empty promises by Elon. Total clown show. Q3 will be even worse.
Don't overread the market 's mind, this market can overvalue a stock for long until some events happens and all bubble dream awaken. One example today is DXCM
Bro how about that energy income!
Giggity giggity
@@xploration1437
SPANKING it!
Thanks!
Gali, l haven't posted or followed you for a while, but l have always held you in high esteem. Just wanna share that in 2021 when the Optimus was first shown, l immediately ran models on it's contribution to 'Future Passed' Tesla. My conclusions were then shared with my Engineering Colleagues and co-workers where we manufacture/design Electric Wheelchairs in Oz. Even my mentor rejected the Robot to the extent that he believed then and today that it will NEVER happen. The valution concluded the bot brings 10 Trillion just from it ONLY. With a possible 20 Trillion and upto 100 T over the remainder of this Century!
This was based on 5 Billion bots, priced at a retail of _equal to or less than $20,000_ . We know this now from Elon, however l believe those numbers on day one were probably the first of their kind in writing anywhere in the World. There are no medals for these.....l expect none. Hold onto your foil hats, and believe the Sun will shine onto a World where Optimus and CYBERCAB change everything we've come to know as Earth and living a full and fullfilled life on this Blue Planet.
Video Video Video you guys are missing the key tech driving $TSLA, no other company has this and is capable of leveraging to cyber-taxi (SS robotaxi) and Optimus
Gali, check 25:11 on today's call. Slip mention of Cybertaxi again.
Gali was born on 1.5X
Can someone contextualize HW5 being equivalent to an NVIDIA B200?
👍
Tesla will sell as many Cybertrucks as Ford has sold F-150 but at twice the margins.
Analyst Gene Munster says no Robotaxi until late '26 or early '27
Imagine Grok running locally on every Tesla, game changer.
Umm why what would change?
“pinching pennies” while paying elon billions in bonuses 😂😂😂
I want a smaller slower 2 door Tesla hatchback for 25000 usd
You'l probably get an amortized tooling Model 3/Y body (MAYBE with a revised front?)
CASTINGS assembled with Gen 3 parts away from final assembly, ALL combined at that point.
Re-geared single motor for "longer legs", [0-60 = 6.9s (Just "Because")] small, lighter pack, but range retained due to the gearing.
It's the best, fastest way to the cheapest product using existing, or soon to be mass produced components.
"Smaller" would require all new tooling, so unlikely.
Also it wouldn't fit the combination of "Existing lines, with Next Gen components"
Please wait for Tesla Robotaxi
bring back G to a millie
The hilarious thing is that Optimus succeeding is more probable than FSD. Factories are just way more controlled space than the outside world.
So even if FSD craps the bed I’ll sit it out for Optimus. And btw, in a positive scenario those two product growth curves might overlay. That would be a Tsunami the world hasn’t seen yet
You’ve highlighted some good points but what you’ve missed are eps were down 15% for the quarter and 40% down compared to pcp last year. Thats substantial.
The EV business is waning.
What matters is how competitive they are.
Chinese manufacturers are competition killers. Half of Tesla’s sales are in China and the Chinese will keep buying their own compared to Tesla at a price Tesla can’t or won’t be able to compete against.
That’s proven by the massive loss in market share from 90% to below 50% now in only a few years.
It’s a double whammy for the company. Lower margins on lower sales.
Current sales are being artificially induced by cheap financing and cheaper prices.
Revenue growth means nothing if net profit growth is not correlated.
It’s just means more sales induced by deals.
What happens when the nearly $900M of credits are withdrawn?
Trump wants Chinese manufacturers onshore. Greater workforce doesn’t do his future Presidency any harm but the Chinese have an even better market at their door step.
You see it doesn’t matter if the energy business picks up. The fact is the EV business is suffering so the profit potential is reduced.
The other projects like Robotaxis are pie in the sky dreams. Who’s going to charge them? Who’s going to clean them? The puke the stains the rubbish? Then how’s the robot going to access smell? These are basic questions. These are long term projects requiring $100Bs of capital. $30B won’t go far and there’s no guarantee of success.
The fact remains that Musk is a very smart businessman and marketer.
The EV business was always quite feasible. Robotic dreams aren’t.
Robots won’t be doing household chores. In the factory yes elsewhere no.
The stock is grossly overpriced on a current PE of 113 at $235 with negative earnings year on year and quarter on quarter this year.
There’s so much latitude in the price for collapse but Musk will still mislead shareholders about the facts. He’s buying time ATM. Excuses excuses. He looking into more than just plan B. It’s CDE & F and I’m not sure how that’s going to work out well..
Time will tell but Tesla is a high risk investment that many young naive investors should not be invested in and I get the opinion that you’re one of them.
“I’m FSDing with my buddy all the time”
You're so wrong about Tesla "bringing" this new model next year. Usually when Tesla announces a new car, it's at least two years away until you see it on the street.
Robotaxi isn't a vehicle, it's just an app. On the call today Musk basically said as much when he said every Tesla is a robotaxi. It is just the app to order a Tesla with FSD.
Hype Hype Hype
For the first time ever following Elon..... I have to say he is distracted. Brutal earnings call.
I suspect he’s working flat out on Tesla and X AI. A brutal workload.
Everything missing to ask about the semi that is about to get rolled out in 2025
First, build the factory.
foundations are being poured now
Sorry, I screwed that post up....
Meanwhile German newspaper
Tesla half’s its capital and shocks investors
They need to take a leaf out of Michael Saylors book. Just buy more BTC.
Like your Amazon analogy. Most people don’t know or forgot. I was holding amzn through that era and had confidence just like tsla. Thx!
We are at another INFLECTION POINT and I too will be buying more as Tesla has taken a beating. Those who continue to doubt this company will be added to the graveyard of those who missed out or worse bet against them. I am HYPED for what we are going towards and since I've been on this ride since 2014... I can WAIT!
Looks like a video full of cope
What do you think the additional market cap could be if Tesla gets into Bagels as a Service?
puuiishh for it bro!
I love how he talks about Tesla in china.
I watch china monthly insurance reports and byd is killing it. Tesla is like 12000 to 15000 cars a month since beginning of 2024. That is only 150000 a year. Based on Ives and my calculations they would need to sell 25000 a month. Las t month was 11000
Why don't we see the details from BYD?
No split of ICE/ Hybrid/ BEV?
WHEN they do that, I will applaud either way.
Until then, You may as well be saying "GM did well"
Gali, ffs, cyclicality is money printing. Good luck bro. 5 year's I'm tapping
You tapping or you'll tap out in 5y?
I don't believe in the $25K Tesla because to get to that price point you need to sell very big numbers and to sell very big numbers you need big range and for big range you need a big battery which is at odds with the goal to keep it cheap.
FSD...well, that has been at level 2 for so long now that my hunch is that AI just isn't the same thing as real intelligence and digital machines will always struggle in an analog world. Pesky edge cases that can't be solved without real understanding of the world.
Tesla bot: problems both on the hard ware and software (AI, no fundamental understanding of the world) side that will always limit its usability. Basically glorified automaton.
So just a small bag of TSLA then 👍
You make it the same as the Cab you plan to build MILLIONS of.
You add a "Games Console" steering module.
You add a SMALL, high density(!) LIGHT, CHEAP battery, which can charge fast, perfect for a "Compact" city car ("Short", not "Small")
@@rogerstarkey5390 The cab won't happen because level 5 autonomy won't happen and the small battery, cheap city car won't happen because the market for low range cars is small so production numbers are small, so the economics won't work out. Model 3 is probably the smallest car for which EV economics work and that already exists.
Some of the biggest selling cars over time (globally) have been small cars designed for short range travel and not cars that most people would consider driving in for 300 plus miles without a stop:
- VW Beatle
- Fiat 124 incl. as the Lada(various models) , SEAT 124, Tofaş Murat etc.
- Ford Fiesta
- VW Golf
- Citroën 2CV
There are plenty of people in the USA thar want a small cheap car who will almost never need to drive more than 100 miles in a day, when they do have that need then might drive their partner's car or hire a car for that rare exception. But Tesla is a global company, and could make a fortune from a shorter range car without selling a single car in the distorted USA market.
=1 Moonshot = DOJO
I.e. to become the AWS of AI
Tesla will not produce a new car before 2026. The factory is not there to produce a new car
They explicitly wrote they are able to make them in existing factories though
GigaTexas.... 🤠
ROFLMAO 😂 Remember when this dude used to say we should be able to mine bitcoin in our Teslas? Now he’s saying Tesla should invest in X AI?! 😂 proof that we are at the top of this hype cycle. Sell sell sell!!!
Who says roflmao in 2024?
Sure Teslas should pay 10 Times what XAI is worth and make Elon and hes Friends even richer and fuck retail investors over!Like when he bought the worthless solar city for Billions!
Tesla short sellers in 2024?
Or the market is telling you that Tesla is currently overvalued, and the stock price needs to come down.
They should do a 5 to 10 billion buy back with some of that cash.. throw shareholders a bone
Yes and India Gigafactory investment
They need to keep it to build out the Tesla owned robo taxi fleet
What are the following useful for?
$30Bn cash.
Low debt.
Reduced overheads (Staffing levels)
Some "updated" products in existing facilities rather than new factories.
Diversification into other segments related to Base Utilities.
Ongoing Vertical integration.
?
They all "Recession Proof" the Company.
.
He's been WARNING us for years.
.
Now consider the dominant force in the EV, Battery sectors (Not difficult to guess?)
Have you noticed they are Integrating production of certain devices allegedly controlled by others? (You know what/ who?)
Preparing (HUGE) new markets? Emerging, Globally, (B*^%CS) ?
What will the effect of those markets be on "others" who might try to "persuade" that "dominant force" to change plans?
They might find the dominant player says "Fine! you go it alone, we HAVE alternatives"?
They might redirect Commodities, etc to those new markets such that when those "others" decide to rejoin the transition, they must deal with the Dominant Player, but the resources are now allocated, not available, or expensive?
They may find that Player developing infrastructure for the benefit of those in the "Collective", building transport links (in which they are highly experienced and competent!) thus cementing peaceful trade between those previously in conflict, reducing the requirement for military capacity/ investment.....?
"You catch more Flies with Honey than with Vinegar"
.
There's a Global power shift coming and only some will be prepared.
Same story again , we loose again!