Resupplying Ukraine: Arms, Aid & Escalation - What, Who, & What might be next?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 10 ก.ค. 2024
- Last week I talked about the enduring strengths of the Russian armed forces and their ability to launch offensives and apply pressure in Ukraine. Faced with that pressure, Ukraine's ability to carry on the fight will be driven not just by its own determination, but by the flow of weapons and assistance from its allies abroad.
Aid to Ukraine has evolved dramatically since February 2022, and there are few topics that have attracted more constant press coverage away from the battlefield itself. So today I try and set out how aid has evolved, who the major contributors are, and the impact aid has had - and may have in 2023.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats & Corrections:
In this episode I refer to the White House announcing periodic age packages for Ukraine - I meant to refer to the DoD
I also refer to percentages of Russian artillery in storage being towed/122mm - this is a reference to 'reserve' Russian artillery systems per MB2021 as stated on the slide.
I also wish to emphasise again that I deliberately included extreme examples of Western escalation options to illustrate a point, not as advocacy.
Sources & Further Reading:
German military support for Ukraine
www.bundesregierung.de/breg-e...
CSIS - US Security Assistance to Ukraine
crsreports.congress.gov/produ...
Ukraine supplemental FY2023
appropriations.house.gov/site...
Kiel Institute for World Economy figures on Ukraine support:
www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-ag...
Oryx: Answering the call - heavy weapons to Ukraine
www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04...
EU Training Mission Targets
www.euractiv.com/section/euro...
Ukraine FOREX reserves
www.reuters.com/markets/ukrai...
US plans combined arms training
www.defense.gov/News/News-Sto...
Poland repairing Ukraine equipment
mil.in.ua/en/news/poland-laun....
Estonia handing over all its 155mm howitzers
kyivindependent.com/news-feed...
en.interfax.com.ua/news/gener...
Reznikov: Ukraine needs 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs, 500 howitzers for specific operation
TASS on Escalation Risk
tass.com/politics/1570233
CSIS on Ukraine Aid:
www.cfr.org/article/how-much-...
Olaf Scholz steers clear of commitment to supply of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine
www.theguardian.com/world/202...
U.S. funds not misused in Ukraine, U.S. Treasury says amid corruption crackdown
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-t...
UK Tanks to Ukraine
www.bbc.com/news/uk-64274755
M113s to Iraq
www.army.mil/article/106646/e...
Paper system counts for elements like Russian and US reserve artillery are per Military Balance 2021
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Opening Words
00:01:43 - What Am I Talking About?
00:03:21 - From Korea to Afghanistan
00:04:47 - AID PRE-2022
00:05:00 - The Ukrainian Military of 2014
00:08:27 - Made in Ukraine (with some help)
00:09:41 - THE AID ESCALATION
00:10:05 - Phase 1: Stop the Tanks
00:11:08 - Phase 2: Light & Heavy
00:12:10 - Phase 3: Keeping the Lights On
00:12:45 - Phase 4: Enabling Manoeuvre
00:14:31 - Phase 5: Reach
00:15:18 - HOW MUCH AID HAS GONE?
00:20:25 - What is a Thing Worth?
00:21:54 - Personal View - Focus on Type & Qty.
00:22:55 - NATIONAL AID PROGRAMS
00:23:07 - The VANGUARDS
00:23:12 - Leading the Charge
00:23:35 - Leading on Heavy Weapons
00:25:02 - Accepting Risk
00:26:42 - Pushing the Boundaries
00:27:58 - THE CAUTIOUS GIANT: US AID
00:32:11 - The Source of Deterrence
00:33:13 - LET'S TALK ABOUT GERMANY
00:36:04 - German Military Aid
00:37:08 - Messaging & Authorisation
00:39:58 - IMPACT & SCALE
00:40:06 - Finances
00:41:06 - Humanitarian & Refugee Costs
00:42:02 - Military Aid by the Numbers
00:46:36 - OTHER AID TYPES
00:50:40 - CAN IT BE ENOUGH?
00:57:07 - The Numbers are the Numbers
01:00:28 - The Trend So Far
01:01:29 - WHAT IS NEEDED?
01:01:44 - The Ukrainian Requests
01:02:49 - Solution 1: New maneuver
01:04:18 - Solution 2: Fight Like Ukrainians
01:08:35 - THE WEST IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT
01:10:25 - CONCLUSIONS
01:11:40 - CHANNEL UPDATE
This one took a while to get through YT's checks but here it is, hopefully release will be a few hours earlier than this next week. Thanks for your patience and support.
Thank you for the good content
Don't care when we get it as long as it arrives. Your work is always worth watching
Hi Perun, the YT Dean was double-checking ✔️ your work? Sigh. Thoughts on balloons🎈?
Always appreciate your attention to detail on your presentations. Makes it well worth waiting for.
What kind of checks do they do? Also love the effort you put into these videos hard to find presentations of this quality I'm any subject
"letting Russia think they can win is a escalation in itself". That is the most pertinent point of the whole video.
Edit:. I do apologise. I seem to have triggered a large number of Russian propagandists desperately trying to convince us that Ukraine is finished.
He he he.
At this point, the sunk cost fallacy is driving Russia forward. The Russians (& Putin in particular) have lost so much that can't end the war without achieving something.
Well, Putin’s personal *survival* is likely linked tightly to the Ukraine campaign. If Russia walks away with nothing (as they should), Putin will likely going to take up unaided flying lessons.
I thought the sabe thing.
"Give up now, or give up after total collapse, either way, it's happening "
@@badluck5647 He will find a way to said that they win. Vietnamese militia broke the PLA's kneecap in 1979(The O.G goal is capture Ha Noi but they never got pass the mountain) while the main force was in Cambodia but they still claim victory.
@@elynolamat674 The Russian bloggers do make salt sound like the most rare, valuable resource on earth after the Russians captured the strategically unimportant Soledar salt mine.
It's not that your audience is completely "niche".... it's that you make completely "niche" subjects so damn interesting and accessible to the general audience.
100%. The audience isn’t “people who like dry PowerPoints”, it’s “people with a deep interest in the conflict”. I think Perun is just being self deprecating and self-mocking because he doesn’t want his popularity to go to his head.
Well said and wholeheartedly agree!
Perun is probably a low grade wannabe analyst and the audience is bunch of nerds that don't have a clue anyway. Look at the top comments at any of his videos, it's always a circle jerk of how they love looking at these powerpoints, but there is never a discussion around the video.
@@zorgius ... bot much?
@@garthmckeil9539 Nope, this dude is not a credible analyst and the audience here does not engage in meaningful dialogue at large. I’m pro Ukraine, but this community gives off a "lack of self-reflection" vibe. If anything, most of the comments here look bot-ish, despite them being a real people.
"For the United States, arming a friendly country that is fighting against the Russians is basically a national tradition, it's on the little bingo check-list that every administration needs to tick off." As a US citizen, I think this comment is hilarious and 100% accurate. Love your videos Perun! Please, keep the good work.
There were several asides that gave great comic relief to what is essentially a nerd centric presentation, but that one takes the cake. Outstanding work, I just hope that the US far right doesn't succeed in drowning out American support to allow a Russian victory.
I wonder why everybody emphasises the US has been doing this (often implying it's somehow a wrong thing to do) while forgetting that it's the exact same thing as what the USSR did. They armed North Vietnam and a multitude of countries (and insurgencies, and coups) in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
@@johnnyenglish583 You see the US has to account to its people, the Russians and by extension the USSR don't.
Makes all the difference in terms of memory when your own people are allowed to make noise about where they don't want weapons to be sent and a country where its illegal to talk negatively about the state.
@@dtly50 that's very true. But it's also a testament to how effective Russian international propaganda is. In the developing countries, people very often support Russia. In fact, many of them only support Russia against Ukraine only because the US supports Ukraine. Naturally, that's illogical: a country that has suffered under colonialism shouldn't support the last remaining colonial power that Russia is.
But they often say it's because they don't like the fact that the US has attacked other countries. What they don't know and don't care to find out is that while the US has taken part in about 6 or 7 military conflicts since 1990, Russia has taken part in fifteen in the same time frame.
And the US didn't deliberately bomb and shell villages in Afghanistan, unlike what he Russian did (they killed 2 million civilians during their invasion of Afghanistan)
It's not a tradition to be against Russia. Russia would never have won against Germany in WW2 without US arms supplies!
Most Countries look at the cost of helping Ukraine and decide they can only give a limited number of artillery guns Estonia looks at the cost of letting Russia win this war and decides to give Ukraine all their artillery guns
It was a very logical decision.
Estonia has the largest Russian minority of all the post-Soviet states, around 30% of Estonia's citizens are ethnic Russians.
If Ukraine falls to Russia, the Russians in Estonia are next in line to be "liberated from oppression", whether they want it, or not.
Helping Ukraine fight Russia is NATO's way of preventing an all-out shooting war with Russia by the end of this decade caused by the invasion of the Baltic states.
@@ticijevish its because baltic states have 300.000 military logistic there from US and EU ,without counting military logistic from baltic states.Your statements its useless.
@@ticijevish not quite 30% more 23% so just under a quarter of their population which is still huge
I don`t feel thats true. I think countries like Lituania, Poland basically former Soviet members are looking at whats happening in Ulraine and the majority reaction amongst its people ist "Fuck no that won`t happen" so even deminishing their military while being under the Nato Umbrella is politcally easy to sell.
Compare that to central europe where people are still unsure on what to actually do. I closely follow germany because they are the heavy hitter in Europe and therefore are looked upon to set the standart. In Germany people are nearly 100% in favour of helping Ukraine, but only 50% would support the next step which is that Russia has lose = be expelled from Ukraine.
So the German Goverment seems to be afraid to commit to something that 50% of the German public doesn`t like. Also sending Main Battle Tanks with feline names onwards on the same roads that also lead to Moskow gives many Germans unconfortable flashbacks to what the learned in school about WW2.
@@ticijevish moldova would be next. Estonia is part of NATO.
‘For the six of you still listening…’ You’d think Perun would have learned by now that his audience have been slowly morphed into defense finance nerds. 😊
Amen 😂
Proudly 1 of the 6 still listening.
@@Brigadier9 im the second one
3.rd.
@@Brigadier9 I have likewise proudly increased that number to 7 :)
When Perun says it’s about to get boring you know he’s getting onto the good stuff
This hahaha 😂
Trye
True
PowerPoint daddy thinks its overly tedious and nuanced? Count me in!
Oh! he always underestimates how good the boring stuff is.
"Because a sober assessment of the balance of powers suggests that Russia would get it's shit kicked in by the NATO alliance as soon as someone smacked the Article 5 button" 🤣 Perun, your wry humor in your amazing videos is one of the highlights of my weekend!
I have been reminded recently that it didn't go so well for Portugal when they tried it. On the other hand, back then the Cold War was in full swing and pretty much the first response to the invasion was India got an attaboy from the Kremlin.
Convincing India that they needed Soviet assistance for a war against NATO just didn't seem worth it.
@@boobah5643 the fine print does stipulate Europe and North America only
@@boobah5643 NATO only covers Europe and North America. India doesn’t fall into that category.
The reason being that US wanted decolonization and the USA did not want the European allies attempting to use NATO as a means to keep their over sea colonies and empires.
@@boobah5643 To be fair there, Portugal was a dictatorship then and wasn't in a good political place to argue the nato alliance should come to it's defence after the territory in question itself didn't want to remain with Portugal.
Comparing India's reannexation of Goa to a Russian invasion of a Nato Member is comparable only in so far as that both would trigger article 5. Anything else is like comparing mice to lions.
Shame it's not true... lookup Pentagon war games and the results will surprise you
As an Estonian that would have to be on the front lines, I hope to god our contributions will help put a stop to the r*ssian hordes. And I still thank the day our politicians decided to join NATO back in 2004, we would have been Georgia'd several times over if we hadn't. Doesn't mean we stop preparing for the threat, but there's the implication.
God, i love Estonia! Hopefully the day never comes when Estonia will need military help, but if it ever will, im sure Estonia will see a sh1ttone of ukrainians fighting alongside its forces.
I served in the US Army and was stationed in West Germany at that time in the early 70s. I was stationed near Nuremberg and the German civilians there were scared that Russia was going to invade them. I as an American Veteran 🇺🇸 I stand with all Free Nations !! GLORY TO UKRAINE 🇺🇦
I like Estonia more and more. 😊 I wish the US would do something more to discourage the Russians from continuing to act up.
Well one think is sure. Poland will not stand and watch if Estonia is attacked. Greetings from Poland
Estonia shows us the way. You can be proud, your country is the tip of the support spear. And your prime minister is the most profound and impressive politician in europe. Mad respect from germany, you are the real epicentre of europe right here and now.
It's insane to me that this isn't your full time job.
As always, exceptional detail and level headed analysis with logical outcomes.
Hope you keep these going for a long time to come.. And that you can branch out into other fields once Ukraine (hopefully) secures its borders..
Hes got over 2000 patreons, im pretty sure he could live of that if wanted to, if he doesnt already :D
And rightfully so
@@riesenfliegefly7139 he donates the proceeds
There is no possibility at all… that Ukraine will “secure its borders”, unless you meant to secure their borders aside from the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia & Crimea.
In fact, Ukraine is also very likely to loose everything up to & including Odessa.
@@paratrooper6 Fair enough :D He *could* tho
We dont know what his full time job is. Only that it probably involves powerpoints
“With [$380 million], you might even be able to buy a house in Auckland or Sydney.” Oh man, as someone living in a high cost real estate area in the US, I felt that. 😭
Also glad to know that Pavel and his mates are alive and kicking. I know he’s fictional, but I still wish him and his crew happy Javelin-ing in the bushes.
Yeah basically all of Australia is New York, rent-wise.
Same with metro areas of Canada, that comment hit home, lol.
You could also rent a loft in SF, but you might have to share a bathroom.
You can put a deposit for a studio apartment in Bondi for that amount of money!
@@moritamikamikara3879 I used to work and live in Sydney and Wollongong, Austinmer and it's outrageous
The Netherlands sends their regards, MH17 will not be forgotten
Never forget
Based
As a Pole I fully understand your need for revenge. Sometimes it needs to be served, and Russia has kept asking for it for a looooong time.
Week in, week out, you just crush it. I want to also say, as an Estonian, I'm super proud about our governments' decision to pack up all of our 155mm's and send them to Ukraine. Yes, Russia is unpredictable and a threat, but we will take the risk, because those guns would most likely otherwise just collect dust in the Depo. But that's not why we bought them. If need be, we'll have NATO and our neighbours to help us out and, god help Russia, if they want to test the NATO resolve, but ultimately, the reward far outweighs the risk. Estonia has gone Deadpool level "maximum effort" on this, as far as aid goes, whether military or humanitarian. Russia needs to be stopped in Ukraine or the Entire Europe will be under threat.
Agree. Thank you Estonia. I wish the rest of Europe would follow your lead.
As a german, big thanks from here. You guys are showing us the way. And your Prime Minister is, to say the least, most impressing.
@@mirnicht6183 Thank you my friend. Many people locally don't like her, but they are generally far right leaning and not very educated in the geopolitical climate of things. She is our own "iron lady", resolute and unafraid to make calculated and serious decisions, which i like about her. Sometimes leaders need to do what's necessary, not what's popular.
And Germany has also provided invaluable support. Many centric Estonians understand, why it's been slow - there's a historic connotation there among many things and those wounds are hard to ignore, but i can say, a lot of us here were extremely jubilant, when we heard the news break, that Scholz announced that the leopards are freed.
Politics can be a slow grind, which is why it is very important for the people to go on the streets and express their will. As German people have proven - enough of you peacfully demonstrating and demanding political action, they will have no choice but to respond and listne to their people, so thank you guys for the support and showing backbone!
Together, as one family, we will help Ukraine push our common enemy back. 💪
@@SideKickStudios As i wrote somewhere else here: Estonia is the tip of the support spear and in my book the heart of the european idea in these days. We will go thru this together, and i will be damned if germany and its cats won´t make a mark in this, but what you guys do shall be put into songs. We germans did have a long way to go, but now that we walked it, i am very sure that we will not drop the ball on being on the right side of history. I know it must have cost you a lot of nervs in north and east, and i can´t even imagine what a ride this year was for the balts. Stay fearless, show us the way, we will have your back and come rolling.
" If need be, we'll have NATO and our neighbours to help us out "
somehow I doubt many countries are going to risk direct confrontation with russia over estonia.
estonia is provoking russia and running out of weapons, that's not very smart.
As a US trial lawyer with 35 years of experience, I have to tell you that this video is a masterpiece of communication. The last ten minutes were truly a brilliant drawing of compelling conclusions from well-marshaled and well-supported facts. Bravo!
I should also say that this video should be required viewing for every member of Congress.
@@gregburch1598 How about if you send every congressman a link your self? As an inhabitant of a 'socialist, Scandinavian state' (who send ALL our howitzers) my mail probably wouldn't make through the spam filter.
Knowing just how much the Polish people have been so passionate about helping Ukraine, the statement about Poland needing armed guards to prevent its people from just stealing the weapons so they can send them to Ukraine made me burst out laughing 🤣 💜🇵🇱
This is not true! Our guards will be first to pack these things up :-)
The young male Poles know that if they give all their weapons to Ukrainians to fight Russia (with a high risk of Ukrainians being killed , that prevents those young Poles having to use those same weapons to defend Poland with a high chance of them being killed .
@@zbigniewmalec4816 love from US i wish i could do that myself.
@@zbigniewmalec4816 on hearing the polish joke i scrolled down to see if someone had come out with a joke to the effect of, I am sure the people going to steal the weapons would appreciate the help of the guards moving all that material
for the average citizen in western Europe/the US, knowing this tidbit about the Poles, the general mood there and in the Baltics towards russia is key to understanding the often distorted and biased media coverage when it comes to western aid to Ukraine. it also explains the attitude towards what the Germans do or don't do fast enough in helping Ukraine
50+ year old, self taught student of WWII and post war military activities. This channel has been a breath of fresh air to me. A well balanced (with sources cited!!!) look at the most pivotal conflict (my opinion) since Vietnam. Since I discovered this Channel a few months ago, I look forward to new ‘drops’ like a kid looks forward to Christmas morning! Thank you for your ongoing commitment to the topic!
It is the most momentous conflict since ww2. Russia and China are going to emerge from this as the preeminent economic and military powers, as the US did in 1945. The EU countries will be broken politically and economically and militarily (thank you US!), Ukraine will likely simply be destroyed, and the US dollar will be devalued. It is nothing less than the end of the US Rules Based Order, the final nail in the Neoconservative doctrine's heart, and end of the US dollar dominance. The US is going to become a third world country.
i agree i actually quite enjoy this channel. powerpoint cited presentations on historically relevant things i find is actually news reporting.
Perun deserves all the credit he is getting for these presentations.
These will be a vital historical record for generations to come.
You must be a fake bot, no one could be this positive over a whole lot of BS presented by a propagandist hack.
he's propaganda, he's being boosted. and it will serve historians, just as goebbels.
@@randomdude2832 I suspect he's created hundreds of bot accounts, using them to spam comments all over his videos, which is being picked-up by the YT algorithm, boosting him up the feed rankings. Go watch Doug Macgregor or Scott Ritter, real military analysts who've worked in the field for decades, they blow this corporate establishment mouthpiece out of the water, everything this guy says is horse manure. He's actively promoting war and Anglo-American hegemony, it's sickening, brainless sheep spewing an endless torrent of Ukrainian propaganda and anti-Russian disinformation, targeting the confirmation bias of his compliant, low information audience.
"Historical record" "Hey, remember when Perun failed to understand that the Russia/Ukraine war was decided in May, 2022, and he kept talking about Ukraine mounting counter offenses right up until the moment the Russians accepted Ukraine's surrender in Kiev? " Good times.. good times.
@@nickcharles1284 in what video couse i dont know
it's nearly impossible to understate how critical Poland has been, but you're the only person I follow who can describe it simply.
The poles have been basically the arms supplier, repair shop, and refugee housing center to Ukraine when this is over i expect that these countries will become even closer than ever
Poland has really upped their status in the free and democratic world as a result of their high levels of support for Ukraine.
Poland respect 🇵🇱🎩
russians know it as well, Americans and Brits also.
That's why Poland is jumping queues for armament in US,UK and South Korea.
russians will never succeed in Ukraine without "neutralising" Poland.
Its super easy, barely an inconvenience to understate it - just dont give them enough credit ... Its impossible to OVERstate it, I imagine you mean
In thinking about the early response of Poland and Czech to Ukraine, I'm reminded of the Latin expression,
Bis das, si cito das.
"you give twice if you give early."
Bravo Poland and Czech.
Here's a joke every pole I've told has loved: why does a Pole shoot a German first and a Russian second? Duty before pleasure. Here in Cz, the govt changed not long before the war, out with the proto trumoiab populist, in with more respectable voices
I'm actually surprised Perun didn't mention Bulgaria. 2 weeks ago, Politico ran an article about how the poorest EU country secretly saved Ukraine.
Bulgaria provided a large amount of the aid when the situation was the most desperate in Ukraine, so here are some excerpts from the article :
"Last spring, Ukraine’s army was running desperately low on the fuel and Soviet caliber ammunition it needed to fight the Russians.
Salvation came from an unexpected quarter: Bulgaria."
"“We estimate that about a third of the ammunition needed by the Ukrainian army in the early phase of the war came from Bulgaria,” Petkov told WELT.
Just as sensitively, the diesel that Bulgaria supplied to Ukraine was processed from Russian crude oil at a Black Sea refinery, which at the time belonged to the Russian company Lukoil. “Bulgaria became one of the largest exporters of diesel to Ukraine and at times covered 40 percent of Ukraine’s needs,” former Finance Minister Vassilev told WELT."
@@KenshiroPlayDotA I think he mentioned this previously in the artillery video
@@1224chrisng Yes he did, but the scale of Bulgarian help only recently came to light. Especially the diesel part.
@@KenshiroPlayDotA Yep Bulgaria had a Nazi regime during WW2 os course they gonna help Ukraine
Mate, the Rob the brickie analogy was one of the most Australian things that I've ever heard in my life. If only you'd called it a Ute!
Speaking as a layman, as far as I can tell these are easily the most meticulously researched, most informative and well argued videos on the large scale conflict that I've come across, thanks!
I really wanna see that video about Wagner and privatized army’s.
Agreed
It's in the works and will (depending on which one between it and another topic I'm working on) likely release next week or the week after.
Hope the privatized army / militias video has a section on Ramzan Kadyrov. We could all use a good belly laugh.
@@PerunAU Ukraine has suffered 157k Soldiers KIA
Russia suffered 20,000-25,000 soldiers KIA this includes all forces fighting for Russia (i.e. LPR, DPR, Wagner, Chechen, etc.)
Check the BBC and Medusa's estimates, as well as Col. Douglas Mac Gregor's estimates for confirmation of this, this is intentionally being hidden from the western public media narrative and discourse to present a false idea of how this conflict has been going, i.e. keep the BS Ukrainian victory narrative going.
@@sammiller6631 it's Ramzan Kadyrov Don*, don
I have no way of explaining to my colleagues that the highlight of my weekend was listening to Perun talk about 'accounting and definitions' over a glass of wine.
Make them sit down and see it with you. They bring the wine, and you will have a new higher standing among you friends as the smart guy! Win-win!
"The US is basically that neighbor with a basement full of AR-15s"
As an American, I resent the use of the word 'basically' instead of 'literally'
"For individuals $380 million dollars is a massively life-changing amount of money with. With that sort of cash you might even be able to buy a house in Auckland or Sydney". As someone who lives in Auckland, I can attest to the accuracy of this statement.
While Perun doesn’t address many topics that aren’t covered and considered by the pros in military and government, the level of detail and expanse of relevant topics would really change the general public’s grasp of what’s going on. The service he’s providing is inestimable, and I hope his subscribership continues to rise. Thanks for another great effort.
Yes, he would be a hell of a lecturer, right!
@@ulrikschackmeyer848 Except most of what he says is regurgitated Western propaganda.
That's exactly what I thought when I watched this. More people need to watch this to understand what "giving money to ukraine" really means.
Given that many of the "pro"s , military and government, have consistently gotten things wrong, they could learn from Perun. Their public releases show that while they may not be incompetent, they at least lack understanding of the situation.
Besides, Perun has intimated that he is in fact one of the "Pro"s, just not necessarily in the right place to be heard.
Double negative? Hard to understand
Look, don't get upset, but I use your videos to fall asleep when I'm having trouble- something interesting enough to lightly hold my attention, but non-engaging enough for me to drift off. I have to say, I'm now on my fourth playthrough, and I still couldn't tell you what happens in the second half of the video. I wholeheartedly thank you, I've had 3 great night's of sleep. Here's to the 4th.
16:44 "So for the six of you still listening..."
One of six, reporting in! :D
"When Rob does it to get a new ute, it's insurance fraud. But when a government does it......" Love it. Keep up the outstanding work. I live for Sunday mornings anymore.
I'm loving the humour that you add into what is a very serious topic. Question on that line specifically; I am either suffering a matrix glitch, or was that a reference to another film/joke/episode?
How do do we explain this to no Ausies watching lol. I thought the same thing. He is funny😊
When he said, "Russia would get it's S&^% kicked in the second someone smacks the Article 5 button" my beer ALMOST came out of my nose.
@@jonasher7183 I only know what a ute is because "McLeod's daughters" was super popular on tv here about 10 years ago. 🤣
@@TheFeldhamster Same here! In fact, they just started a rerun. Again!
I'm listening all of this and understand that there is no possibility that we(am Ukrainian) could hold for so long by ourselves. Without all of you we would be already dead. I am incredibly grateful to you.
Szcze ne wmerla Ukraina!
You are most welcome. You fight for freedom, ours too.
A Dane too old to join, but happy that we sent all the Caesar howitzer (that we don't have yet) to you.
The US and others are more than willing to help deserving people.
Ukrainians have proven themselves willing to fight for their "unalienable rights" as humans to individually "pursue life, liberty and happiness."
(borrowing words from the USA Declaration of Independence)
probably not all dead. possibly a lot more fucked in many ways with russian occupation but with less dead, don't you think so?
We are grateful to you too, you bear a big burden for the free world and should receive more aid.
“Escalation” as if Putin can’t order all the troops home at any point. Every moment Putin does not withdraw, is a moment he accepts escalation.
The single biggest geopolitical lesson from Ukraine: never, EVER give up nukes if you have them. No amount of security guarantees will ever amount to anything. No nuclear power is to be trusted not to exert force upon you if you give up your nukes.
A sad history lesson that teaches not to be too peaceful.. thanks to this precedent created by russia no country will ever give them up in future. The existance of this country itself makes the whole world a worse place somehow, and not just eastern europe.
The problem I heard was, Ukraine had the physical nukes but not the button/hardware to launch them. So they got what they could out of Russia/other major powers for handing them over.
@@Galaxy613 thats just a caveat, itd be incomparably easier to reverse engeneer the lauch mechanism than build nukes from scratch. Considering also the fact that there were many ukrainians working on them in the first place, just like on most military engineering projects during soviet times. And also considering how long ago that was if not for that paper/political will to abandon nukes we coulve develop them from scratch if there was a will. Ukraine is a birthplace to many nuclear reactors including biggest in europe nuclear station, that operated more than fine until russians came, asome new block were built relatevely recently on wester Ukraine with more coming. How hard would it be with such knowledge and human resources? Israel and Iran managed just fine. Even pissbroke North Korea did.
@@alexyuu952 Iirc a lot of the nuclear assets were under dubious control, with missile units belonging to Russia and not willing to hand over the weapons
That makes it sound like Ukraine had much of a choice in the matter and made a bad decision. The reality was that the country was broke and in an even worse financial situation than Russia so it needed help and needed to cut costs across the board. The proliferation nightmare that the US and others perceived was the sudden creation of a new nuclear state with what would have been by far the largest arsenal in the world outside the US and Russia, and that nuclear state was bankrupt and riddled with corruption so this was scenario that couldn't be allowed to happen.
Furthermore, nukes aren't just phenomenally expensive to build and deploy (The US arsenal has cost over $12 trillion to date), but difficult and expensive to maintain. Although military production was spread throughout the USSR, the facilities to build and maintain nuclear weapons were only ever located in Russia so unless Ukraine wanted an arsenal that would have degraded to uselessness long ago, they'd have had to find the enormous amounts of money to construct facilities to maintain them and produce consumables like deuterium and tritium as well as the means to manufacture or reprocess weapons grade uranium and plutonium. Let's not forget either that these weren't crude, low-tech devices similar to what NK started out with. They were state of the art (by Soviet standards at least which was still good) miniaturised warheads with high yield-to-volume ratios and very high efficiency compression stages (both conventional and nuclear). They're not exactly the kind of weapons that you'd want as "My First Nuke" and Ukraine would have been thrown in at the deep end to keep them functioning and would have relied on large scale outside technical and financial aid to do it.
When a new Perun video pops up, I see the length and think, "do I really have time for this?" Inevitably, after an hour and a half, the answer is "well, that was time well spent." Honestly, no matter the subject, your videos are always entertaining and incredibly informative.
I'm like, do I watch it now or save it for the long commute? Watch now, dinner be dammned! High value YT.
I always tell myself "I don't got time for ignorance on this topic so I might as well watch the video despite its length."
They are long BUT they are in a format that you can watch at 2x speed. If you can't keep up it is easy to skip back to refresh or just pause to read the text which also helps. Actually - I wish I had the time to watch at normal speed.
Same lol
The immense struggle I have every Sunday between getting enough sleep for work in the morning or immediate watching an hour long slideshow on military analysis. You can guess which one always wins.
Don't lie. It's not a struggle to decide.
Who needs sleep knowledge is more important
All the best to you
Sleep? Rong
HUH AUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGH
I just wanna say that, as a politically engaged German, I quite enjoyed your characterization of German politics around Ukrainian aid. It was accurate, well done!
Rob's ute adventures are peak accounting education. Please continue.
As an American please don’t stop giving it us straight up. We need that. I totally enjoy your deep well organized analysis. Please keep it coming.
As a Swede, I concur with the American.
@@johanmetreus1268 As a German, I concur with the American and the Swede.
As an informed Australian, I can safely say this guy's a propagandist for the West.
@@danielhill9080 why? What point in the video is wrong?
Approach will differ based on whether you have:
- a big ocean (or other body of water) between you and the problem.
- a nuclear response.
- sufficient national natural resources.
Basically its easy to point and shout when you're nowhere near the front.
The further you are, and the more insulated you are from consequences, the easier it becomes to make big swift moves. And thereby the louder an ahole you can be to those walking on thin ice.
The US also provides intelligence. Something we might never be able to quantify.
The Russians are super-pissed about this.
This is mentionned in the video.
I suspect the quantity and quality of the intelligence provided is very, very significant.
As a novel, they must of had huge influence on the two gains they had.and, no I’m not American, god they are winning back public opinion through this.
Imagine that, talking about Americans and good intelligence in the same sentence, and it not even a joke! A grateful European
@@ulrikschackmeyer848 Americans historically had very good radar...and rather very mixed results from the CIA.
I love being a part of this particular audience. As always, many thanks to you Perun for the time and effort you put into making all of this accessible, informative and deeply interesting.
"I could come up with all sorts of weird and whacky escalations options..that would practically set reddit on fire" 😆😂🤣💀 Perun is one of the funniest deadpan comedians in 2022-23. Who knew military logistics presentations could be so funny
I want an hour long PP presentation on this ☝️ from him
@@robertmifkovic6325 Me too
Aside from all the general praise for another great presentation, I also have to give personal thanks. I'm german, and I had no idea what was going on with my countries military aid to Ukraine, except a lot of public/media drama. I feel like I understand it a lot better now. So thank you.
I too was confused about Germany’s role. This presentation made it clearer.
Have you ever thought that there is another version that is different from this one?
@@BibEvgen When i listen to Solovyov i hear a different one. Unfortunately a flat earther makes more sense.
German politics (especially on the Green Left) have been infiltrated if not propped up with KGB/FSB money and influence. They never left East Germany so reunification was a gift to Russia. Replacing the nuclear power industry with “cheap” Russian gas was only the most obvious.
@@knietiefimdispo2458 Listen to Aristovich, there are many other sources besides the showman Solovyov.
As a Brit living in Germany, my take on German responses is that they're aware they need to do it, but that they'll explore every possible outcome and options first. It's worth remembering that this pacifistic approach is partly their internal response to their history, but it also something that was imposed upon them after World War 2.
In short, in the 40s/50s, in order to 'rejoin' the club, certain political requirements were placed on them by the other major players. Amongst these were a requirement that (for obvious reasons) no single politician and/or general could take militaristic decisions for the entire country. As a result, there are layers upon layers of bureaucracy (and anyone who has been to the Buergeramt will know that comes naturally :)) which Germany has to find its way through.
So, not just an innate desire not to get involved, but very definitely the product of both internal and external forces post-1945.
Maybe they could change the wording to "this does not apply to military equipment sent within Europe" when it comes for approval from Germany itself in regards to transactions , would save alot of headache.
Also worth bearing in mind just how many, and how deeply, russia implanted people into German corridors of power. And for balance, not just Germany.
@@matso3856 Historically the location the equipment is sent to was never the issue. the issue is that Germany historically completely ruled out EVER to send military equipment of any kind into a conflict zone, let alone a war. The fact that Germany is doing this now is a complete and total break with a foreign policy it has maintained since its creation in 1949. That kind of total shift in policy does not happen overnight. To make this very clear: Even when Germany sent military equipment to Turkey, a NATO ally, it did so under the explicit condition that the equipment was not to be used on the eastern border in the conflict with the Kurds but only for NATO defense. Germany does usually not even deliver to a country that has the slightest beef with a neighbor or any kind of internal conflicts brewing. Going from that to sending tanks into a warzone with a superpower that also happens to be the one you historically inflicted a huge number of warcrimes on ... I think you get the picture.
@@LeutnantJoker All of the mentioned above is very right, but it does not change that the decission pace and communication in the face of what is happening in Ukraine is a hard test for my german nervs. Not that it would be anything new concerning our lightning speed decissions and always highly parctical style. But, i want to end on positive a note: I will eat a stick, as we like to say, if we germans will not find a place in history were any Ukrainian wouldn`t say after all is said and done: They had our back. We are slow, but don´t try stopping us once we have our mind set on something. For all intends and purposes, all lights are on green concerning german produced gear, now watch our industry getting it done, you will not be disapointed.
It needs to be rammed home that Inaction is itself a form of conscious action, often with unfavourable outcomes. Delaying action is a decision in and of itself that will almost certainly limit Ukraine's options for ending this conflict quickly.
The six of you! The 491k views from 360k would suggest that all six of us watched until the end!
Perun, your work has been incredible!
WOOHOO The Netherlands! So proud to be in this list!!!
It's important to note that Estonia buys K9 self-propelled howitzers (155mm) and giving away all "static" artillery units is just a stage of mechanization of it's army. By giving away all it's old howitzers you can give conscriptionists a K9 to operate
It's the same with US, germany and others. They are mostly sending old stocks that they don't plan on using anyway, which frees the budget for modernisation.
Russias progress was halted by last nights leftovers
All donations should be matched by new acquisitions so as to not create a power vacuum.
@@herptek elaborate please; it's unclear what you are trying to say.
@@roywhiteo5 I wouldn't exactly call the stuff we gave Ukraine leftovers.
It's not so much that you have a special audience. It's that you have amazing analytical skills and an understated sense of humor that makes even Ukranian arms accounting practices interesting to a huge audience. Keep it up!
As an someone with an MBA in Finance that has done corporate auditing I feel the accounting practices being used by the Pentagon should put people in jail.
His amazing analytical skills might have led to him mention that the US has now provided more aid to Ukraine than everyone else since and including Vietnam. It's a stupid amount of money and thinking this ends well is some of the most midwit thinking I've ever seen. It's unbelievable that people can be this naive. The best case scenario by far is that it peters out over decades while our grandchildren pay the interest on all this printed money.
@@RJT80 It's unbelievable you can be so uninformed. This is a small amount compared to the $922 billion (in 2022 dollars) sent in the 1941 Lend-Lease Act, but even that was only 17% of the total war expenditures of the U.S. We gave $11.3 billion ($208 billion in 2022) to the Soviets, so why shouldn't the US provide aid?
"The most escalatory option is to give Russia the impression that if it keeps fighting it will eventually win" - this is exactly what I have been saying from the start of the conflict.
The best way to de-escalate here is by showing Russia we will not back down and that they will lose much more than they have to gain by doing so. When it comes to people who only know force and not mutual prosperity, like Russia / Putin, the only way you can make them see sense is with force.
A lesson people need to learn is being kind to a psychopath does not turn the psychopath into someone willing to give up their benefit for humanity. It will just give them the opportunity to take from you what they want. The kind and reasonable need to be answered with kindness and reason, the unreasonable and warmongering need to be answered with staunch and unrelenting resistance and harsh retribution. For if they do not learn without consequences, then we are given no option other than to give it to them to the best of our abilities.
If we let Russia win, China will see it as a green light to take taiwan.
Which in turn would lead to a green light for China/Russia to help the north Korean crazies take the south.
If a nuclear war is'nt already boiling at this point and US somehow wishes to keep its head in the ground still, at this point China will take this chance to take revenge on Japan, while Russia would love nothing more than to reform the Soviet Union and dismantle nato.
If that happens congrats world war 3 starts proper.
The only de-escalation option is the complete defeat of Russia, or a partial defeat so painful Russia can no longer conduct an offensive war.
It sends a message to all dictatorships we are not willing to let a sovereign nation be conquered and sets the stage for a more peaceful world, as if no one is allowed to attack anyone else without the defender receiving massive support, then no one will be able to conduct an attack without a very good Ukrainian victory is the only de-escalation permissible.
An idiotic response. Putin isn’t a psychopath and the Russians showed great restraint for many years.
Feeding more weapons into Ukraine just prolongs the conflict, killing more people and destroying more infrastructure. The longer it goes, the more territory will be annexed by Russia.
If we were to put Russia on the back foot (a virtual impossibility) then we merely hasten the probability of a nuclear exchange.
Negotiated settlement is the only path forward.
@@MrGunwitch Time has already answered the question whether sending weapons to Ukraine is capable of defeating the Russian threat. You merely claiming it won't work does not change that it already has, and that there is no indication of it working any less now.
Also, the claim that the longer the war goes on the more Putin annexes is a complete misunderstanding of the situation. This is a geopolitical conflict, for so long as Russia does not want the west in Ukraine while Ukrainians do, they cannot allow Ukraine to decide for themselves. And as far as I know you cannot annex more than 100% of a countries land, so it is impossible for him to do as you claim.
Finally, Nuclear war is avoided only by ensuring both sides know they have nothing to gain from using it and everything to lose.
By removing the portion where using or threatening to use nuclear weapons does not gain you anything you begin rewarding abusing it as threat. As long as it continues to be rewarded it will continue to be used, until the victim / other party risks losing something they are willing to risk it for.
Now if you don't see the problem there yet let me explain. If you gain an advantage by threatening an action you do not dare take, then you will lose most or all that you gained as you lack the measures to take and control it. Leaving them in a position to either back up their threat with actions or lose what they gained. This will all but ensure Nuclear war as there is too much to gain by using it and too much to lose by not using it.
This in situations such as this is most easily prevented by drawing a line and refusing to back down the moment the first threat is made. A small conflict happens and both sides back off because there's nothing to gain.
@@hungrymusicwolf Sending weapons has prolonged the conflict but it hasn't helped the Ukrainians. They've suffered catastrophic losses and will likely never recover from the damage that has been done to both their male youth and economy.
As for the rest of your comment, complete word salad. I'm assuming that you're not an English speaker and are using a translator program? Regardless, I don't have time to entertain sub-par communication.
You're muted.
@@MrGunwitch massive L on your part ngl
41:53 thank you for opening up with us Perun, it was a really nice personal touch to a great presentation. I hope they are all much better off right now. :)
What would have been interesting to mention was the “Ringtausch” in which Germany supplied systems to countries who then sent their ex soviet systems to Ukraine. Afaik the czech tanks came in via that route.
Roughly half of them. 20-25 of 50 CZ T72 delivered over summer.
Later refurbishments were paid for by US and NDL (45 each)
Given that Czechia has so far only received a grand total of 1 Leopard 2A4 for training purposes in December 2022, it's a bit ahead on the whole Ringtausch deal: it sent an unspecified, but likely double-digit number of T-72M tanks from army reserves already in April 2022, and it's providing the upgrade services for the 90 T-72EA Avenger units that came out of Morocco's stock and are being paid for 50/50 by US and NL. The current "Ringtausch" order is for 14 older Leopards 2A4 to be donated to CZ, and up to 50 newly produced Leopards 2A7+ to be purchased.
@@vojtechhoracek7704 Thanks for the detailed info. I guess what i was pointing at, that even if it appears that Germany was not sending anything, it tried to enable other countries to do so.
But i forgot, Germany still sucks, of course.
As a resident of Ukraine in 2014, it was a fact that Russia was indeed trying to move further...all the way to Transniestria. I saw one image of a Russian tank with the words.."na Lvov" painted on the barrel. They were stopped by the unofficial militias...Azov, Aidar, Pravyy Sektor and others.
@@jetserb put more emojis, that will make your russophile arguments stronger!
@@militantcapitalist4606 “russophile” lmao cry harder
@@militantcapitalist4606 No change ur name to Bush to be more original or actually u can put Maggie Thatcher
As a Ukrainian, you have no idea whatsoever what Russia was doing. The only thing you have is bias.
@@jetserb "like they did in history"
Ah, you meant Kaliningrad in 1945, Hungary 1955, Prague 1968
Thanks for reminding us of the fact that you held five countries occupied and three annexed for 36 years
Also, what kind of commander is not capable of stopping his troops from doing that? Those words on those tanks mean that not just the commander of the tank but the commander of the entire unit is quite ok with it. Batallion Tactical Groups are commanded by... A major? They know things...they are not advancing blind...
Absolute top notch, professional breakdown. Thank you for taking the time to create this.
Super high quality videos. Love these! So detailed. Happy to see that they are very popular.
"That would be like the United States taking a number of F-22 Raptors, painting them blue and yellow, putting American pilots in them, flying them from Poland into Ukraine, having those pilots shoot down a bunch of Russian aircraft while talking in really, really bad Ukrainian over the radio, flying those aircraft back into Poland and then saying the Ukrainians did it."
Which would be incredibly based and should absolutely be done
Hang on , did the Russians do this in both the Vietnam & Korea war ?
If the US does it, I will have precisely 0 objections.
The USA did a similar thing to help the Chinese nationalists fight against Japan.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flying_Tigers
The major obstacle would be getting yellow and blue paints that did not interfere with the stealth characteristics of F-22.
@@bobprivate8575 I love that this is the concern, not the international incident it could cause.
Which is exactly what it should be. Fuck Russia.
Thank you for dropping awareness on the American “spending spree” that the right wing media has used to denounce our support for Ukraine.
Yeah it's really dumb, either side will criticize the other for anything regardless of logic. If Trump were in the WH right now doing the same thing conservative media would be gungho and the left wing media would be losing their minds and branding him as some kind of James Bond villain meets Hitler meets Thanos warlord.
Yeah...I've had to slap around co-workers who've made 'my tax money' comments. Ukraine is fighting Putin and his Orcs.
Those hecking republicans trying to stop us saving democracy by supporting AZOV!
It's good to be cautious about our aid, we've had mixed luck with this in the pas
@@Knight_Kin There's a difference between "caution" and "just let Russia have whatever it wants".
Excellent Perun. Thank you.
Can't say enough thanks for the work you are doing here.
🙏
I wish my fellow Hungarians would watch your videos. The amount of shit they believe without the factual support is incredible. I wish I could see their response, when they listen to something that has an actual foundation. but regardless, thank you for the amazing work.
Can you shield some light on why Hungarians ate such Russian loving a-h0les? I would have thought the Hungarian revolution would mean that they should be hating russia? Why are they obsessed with strong man dictators and have yet to join the 21st century ?
@@hkchan1339 I would have thought the same... :( I cannot really shed light on the why-s, without making 2-3 Perun style video (which I am sure wouldn't be able to do). It is complicated. And I am also not entirely comprehending all the reasons yet. But there is one thing I know, because I follow both western, russian, ukrainian and hungarian information channels, besides learning about history, society and economy of these places. And that thing is, that Hungarians get only half of the truth. And they seem to receive mostly the views, that are appropriate for the current government. You don't really see pro western commentary in the mainstream media. And all the channels that disagree are stapled as the propaganda of the left wing, with 0 consideration. The mainstream is not pro-Russian like the Russian media itself, but it is certainly aligning with it more than with the west. Ooooh, and my favorite. Every single bus stop has a plackard stating "Sanctions are bad, they will kill us".
But there is a lot more to it that is related to the failure of the left wing a decade ago, ironically to the damage, the soviet brainwash did to our identity. Bad historical choices in the 20th century, being on the losing side in the last few 100years and the list can go on.
Ah one more thing! Unlike Putin, Orban Viktor is very smart (painfully), but I suppose his time is numbered, as power makes people corrupt and sloppy.
He does economical improvements (of course without admitting that it was achieved partly from western money), so life is better which strengthens his position.
I think you get the starting point towards and answer with this snippet of info. Lot of people don't agree with the Hungarian government, but most likely many of them already left the country.
Im almost happy my Grandfather has been dead 20 years because him having to watch his free government debase themselves before rooskie vermin would have broke his heart and killed him.
They probably are but that doesn't mean it's easy to uproot weeds when all you have is just a rusty gardening fork. Much like the Russian people they will be a segment rooting for Orban, another hates his guts, and another who may have just relinquished politics to the State altogether. It's the last group of people who might not be persuaded to engage with it, for good or ill, until trouble reaches their door step. That's just human nature. They're the rusty garden fork, and has old habits die hard, they will hunker down and try to get on with things like they did under the old Iron Curtain.
Have they forgotten 1956?
I’m a 20 year veteran of the USAF and the thing that frustrates me is that Ukraine has shown the capability to defend and take ground, but they’re lacking the tools to end it. Tanks aren’t going to end this war any faster, what Ukraine is lacking is the capability to rapidly strike any point within hundreds of kilometers beyond the front line on a moment’s notice. Because I’m sure F-35s are off the table the simple solution is more HIMARS with enough of the long range ammunition for sustained bombardment.
Please tell your congressman, that Europe thinks so too! He's welcome to mail me for confirmation!
And F-16s. Being the previous "standard" multirole fighter of NATO (as much as such a thing is possible in a diverse alliance), and it now being in the process of being replaced with next-generation fighters (in particular the F-35), NATO countries have a large stock of the things that they aren't going to need much longer. So, similarly to so many other of the weapons we've sent from stockpiles, this is another one that makes a lot of sense. It's not really an escalatory weapon, IMO, as the F-16 isn't really particularly more advanced (in itself) than the fighters Ukraine already has. Yet it promises large potential numbers of fighters for the beleaguered Ukrainian Air Force, along with the capability of carrying large parts of NATO's air-borne arsenal as-is.
Why are people proud of US military service? You are the bad guys.
@@mnxs The F-16 is more advanced because of Block upgrades. The most modern MiG-29 Ukraine has is a one of a kind because only one was upgraded before the war. The rest have only one gen of post-Soviet upgrades.
there's not enough ammunition for sustained bombardment at the rate it's being used in ukraine and giving longer distance himars is another escalation that leads to direc confrontation and nuclear war.
Perun, your analysis of current events blows the competition away. Keep up the good work!
Your talks always hold my interst and never seem overlong! So informative andenlightening!
The relentless quality just never stops, just constant incredible content from this channel (and commentators).
Weekly uploads, quality in depth content with a clear masterclass in topic knowledge, and a good level of analysis.
There is a lot to learn from every video and it feels worthwhile watching each time.
Awesome video, as always.
I think the most salient point here is on the "What is Escalation?" slide: Not making it clear to Russia that it can never, under any circumstances win this war *is* escalation, because it encourages the agressor to pursue the war!
Exactly. And people also need to understand that letting Russia win this conflict even on a limited fashion would be an unacceptable security risk for the NATO alliance. People seem to have forgotten what Putin's war goals were, or am I the only one remembering that he basically said that he wants to push NATO out of all of eastern Europe and also threatened Finland and Sweden with consequences. If Russia believes they can use war to shift borders around again, something that has been clear to everybody in the world to be unacceptable since WW2, then we're in for a hell of a new world order. Because Russia sure as hell won't be the only ones getting ideas if they see the west and the US back down if you just last long enough and that annexing territory through war is now a valid means of extending your borders again. That would be absolutely desastrous and certainly NOT make the world a more peaceful place.
@@LeutnantJoker Precisely.
The West made that mistake in 2014. Had we been more adamant then, we might not be in this mess now, and many Ukrainians might not have lost their lives so tragically.
I appreciate the time you spend compiling and delivering this information. Thank you.
I stumbled onto this channel about a month back and it's been the best thing the algorithm has served up. Great, informative videos and yes I'm all in on the accounting practices and cost breakdowns
For all of us out here crossing our fingers for Ukraine and living in a constant state of anxiety, this video has been a God send. Thank you for all your incredible efforts Perun.
Good to know I am not the only fingers crossed constant state of anxiety guy out there! Gives me a comforting sense of community as I follow the ups and downs of this madness that is the ruZZian invasion. Slava Ukraini
This video is pro NATO propaganda that selectively excludes critical facts to blame Russia when the actual picture is far more complex, and if anything favors Russia, this guy is good at propaganda though, I'll give him that, but he is just part of the *5 eye's* who believe they run the world and are the main component of the Western imperialism which has lasted for 500 years in the modern world.
@@garretttobin7451 oh my, the Russian bot forces spread their wed wide.
My name must be on a Kremlin list or two because you lot are always targeting my comments lately. Glad I'm using a VPN.
@@JimGobetz same. I’m fortunate enough to live in America and not be anywhere near this level of violence and destruction, and yet the anxiety is still there. Hope y’all are in good health and doing well, glory to Ukraine, I hope this war is over soon.
@@max.fleming1045 Sorry you don't like an actual dose reality and truth as opposed to BS you're constantly fed on western MSM, hopefully once Russia comprehensive destroys Ukraines army you might wake up a little but somehow I doubt it.
As an American, all I can say is that I'm glad our aid is actually helping. So often, we ruin exactly what we're try to fix. Seeing our efforts succeed for once is as satisfying as it is disorienting.
Not that there isn't always some corruption, American efforts have done so much more good over the decades than the leftist controlled media will ever admit. They don't like the fact that people around the world prefer freedom, even in scanty doses, over the despotic alternatives.
I can give lots of examples from Korea to South Sudan to Vietnam to Iraq where I served. No other nation has done more to show the people of the world an alternative to living under tyrrany.
Still, it's a bittersweet look ahead to think predictably that it's many of those other countries who we will envy when they have the freedoms which American society is now so willing to give up without a fight here in America.
I'm sure we'll come to regret some of it. Personally, I don't trust Zelensky any further than I can throw him... and I trust whoever succeeds him even less. It is, after all, a marriage of convenience... and eventually it won't be the most convenient thing any longer.
@@boobah5643 When you meet some healthy and free family of Ukrainians some time in the future and think of what horror they would have otherwise faced, then I hope your regrets will fade out into comparative nothingness.
I feel the exact same way! So many years and so much money spent in the middle east, only to watch it collapse before our eyes like we never even did anything. Ukraine, on the other hand, is absolutely kicking ass and taking names with the equipment we send them. I'm just glad the actually ludicrous amount of money we spend every year on the defense budget is being put to good use.
@@vsGoliath96 You should read up on Iraq sometime. It's a democracy, with a parliament, and power sharing agreements between the factions. It's actually kinda working over there.
I absolutely love that I'm an hour into this and know that there's still plenty left to watch
Another great presentation. Very thorough and inciteful with all the relevant topics hit and explained. Thank you for providing these great presentations and I love the bits of humor that you use to make a point and place at the most unexpected moments.
One thing I want to add to your argument why Germany is so restrained in providing military help to Ukraine is that there are very influencial parts in the SPD (social democratic party which is the party of the German chancellor) that hab or still have deep (economical) ties to Russia and are only slowly realizing that Russia can't be seen as a possible partner anymore.
Perun's been nice and not ascribing nasty motives to anyone. Why bother (and make people defensive) when there's all these laudable (if arguably misplaced) reasons?
Err... aside from the Russian politicians, that is.
@@boobah5643 I don't mean that purely in a negative sense. There certainly have been advantages for Germany in the past of persuing the "Wandel durch Handel" doctrin (change to a more liberal society in Russia and improving security and stability in europe through trade and close diplomatic relations) for example access to cheap natural gas which did contribute to the good economic development in Germany in past 20 years. This idea of inducing positive change by trade relations has not only been adopted by the SPD but also the CDU/CSU (party of the former chancellor Merkel) and the left party.
However, parts of the SPD have shown to be especially reluctant in changing its relation to Russia, which might be in part due to personal and economic entanglement of some of its members.This is no conspiracy theory or smear campain against the SPD but rather a fact that can be clearly seen when you take a look at the friendship of former chancellor Schröder (SPD) and Putin.
@@annoholic7941 I pretty much agree. The German aim of civilizing and humanizing Russia, through trade, giving them advantages to move into the modern world, had some merit. Unfortunately it was not dealing with rational beings, but rabid animals, as subsequent actions have proved. Now we are left with dealing with the rabid beast. Pacifism in the face of a community committed to re-creating an empire by force, is not a winning tactic.
Perun,
I agree with your comments about US support for Ukraine. In our political environment here in the US, our government has done a poor job of explaining Ukrainian aid. Most of our population hears the very high dollar values thrown around and don’t understand the breakdown as you have explained. The cold hard truth as I have said before we could pack up every Stryker, 113’s, 105 howitzers, all the Bradley’s, TOWs, Sheridans’s and not miss them. We will probably save money in the deal as you have said. Sorry to repeat what you have already said, just trying to reinforce your points.
I agree. I actually think we (the US) should:
* Open up more training camps, esp in logistics/maintenance of our equipment, which is a long pole in the tent.
* Start spinning up production for NATO members backfilling their supplies. That could be infrastructure bank style loans to industry.
* Contract development of small anti-air solutions for taking out low/slow drones at less expense. They don't need Shilka equivalents, but something they could mount as a technical and, using a fair amount of self-destroying rounds, could take out drones around critical areas. You can buy a lot of anti-air bursting ammunition for the cost of one Patriot missile. We have the tech. It just needs to be put together.
* Start shipping excess equipment at least as far as Europe. Since Russia is unlikely to invade the continental US, anything we get over to Europe/Nordic countries is closer to deployment if needed. It's not cheap, but it's not useless. If we get it into Ukraine, it has to travel that route anyway.
* Start stockpiling construction equipment, bucket trucks, etc in Europe. Either Ukraine will need it after the conflict or it will be needed elsewhere in Europe because Russia isn't stopping there. It's an investment that could produce a much quicker turnaround to recovering Ukraine for it's citizens and bolstering/uniting NATO countries around helping as well as building up their military spending. This is the paramedic vs the policeman investment. It wouldn't *not* get used in pretty much any scenario. It would help return stability to a place that could fracture if they win.
* We need to stop pretending like the GOP would allow the increase in programs for vets, social programs, aid, etc at home if we didn't spend the money halting an aggressive Russia. The GOP always works against those programs until the shame is overwhelming (eg burn pits bill they voted against). If this sort of spending vs USSR/Russia was good enough for Reagan, it should be good enough now when it's actually being used.
IMO the US has more to be concerned about than Russia and has to balance the immediate need in Ukraine with the possible/probable need of a confrontation with a CCP led China which its leader Xi has stated publicly that a prime objective of his is to overtake, overcome and defeat the US military in some future conflict. The difference is that although Russia has had advanced technology but doesn't have the economic power to be more than a threat to the USA and its allies, China has the economic power but lacks the advanced expertise and technology to challenge the US. Remember that the US has had a history of purchasing technologies like the VTOL capability of the F-35B from Russia but nothing from China. China lacks the ability to design even an F-22 type aircraft, likely won't be able to design something comparable to the B-2 or B-21, lacks basic helicopter technology much less the tilt rotor technology the US is transitioning to and lacks advanced fanjet engine technology all of which are multiple decades behind the US. Of course those advantages could disappear in a blink of an eye through something like theft and espionage but if China had to depend only on its own resources wouldn't have any hope of catching up to the US, ever as an adversary.
Well, if you are American why don't you tell your networks to make a deal with Perun, and air his videos. That would be quite a thing.
@@tonysu8860 China's military is very green compared to ours.
Exactly. The US government desperately requires a competent PR branch
I so appreciate your work, and I find this one here to be one the most informative so far. I hang in every word you speak. I marvel at the numbers. Your way of breaking down a war into the nitty and gritty give us a perspective that we wouldn't otherwise have. Thank you.
Thanks Perun. This video presentation is amazing!... You deserve a medal for this. I have subscribed to your TH-cam Channel now - It's well deserved.
I love how many comments are here about how great the presentation is, even though its only been released for 2 minutes :D
We already know.
It's not like these comments will ever need changing amirite
His work is better than 90% of the presentations I sat for in uni. I couldn't go 25 mins without my ADHD going bananas.
Kinda gotcha,
kinda true 🙂
Makes the comment section boring too imo
Such level of quality analysis is unmatched on the usual media accessible for a wide public.
#PlebLife 🤘
Completely agree.
One-sided. A lot of propaganda, distortions.
@@BibEvgen 🤡💅
@@BibEvgen Such as?
You're free to call anything that debunks your views as propaganda, propaganda doesn't define something to be false - it can also be the truth.
Can you actually tell us what was wrong in this video, and what was distorted? As while it's one thing to just say something is not valid, you need to elaborate on why.
Perun has done a fantastic job in this video, sure he's bias - that does not make anything he said untrue.
Thank you. Clearing the confusion around this subject helps a lot in keeping the audience better informed and with realistic expectations. 🤗
"Accounting treatments and Definitions." finally a TH-camr that covering the war that goes for a bit of an broader overview
47:50 "...because I hate to hear on-hold music while I was under artillery fire!"
I hereby nominate perun for the Nobel Prize in Literature.
"On hold" music
Thank you so much - this is among your best. I especially liked seeing justice done on the German question. In addition, the clear headed reasoning on the risks of escalation; aggressively increasing support versus being highly risk averse, is a debate expressed in the mainstream mostly as the bald presentation of either extreme without any actual nuance or reason. You illustrated the value of well researched long-form journalism. Bravo.
Only 2 criticisms I had of Prerun on those subjects were...
- Germany's motivations based on self-interest. It's rare when any country does anything that's not in its self interest and that generally will determine the speed and scope of what Germany will allow to be sent to Ukraine.
- Regarding escalation, I wish Prerun had stated in plain words that in any war, if you want to avoid a long, drawn out stalemate, commitment to win is required and that means "escalation" is a taboo word. Anyone who is afraid of losing will complain about escalation. If you want to win, you can't be afraid to win.
@@tonysu8860 : The Escalation-thing is not a german-only thing though, considering that the US in that regard is no better. (down-graded himars, same timeframe to greenlight tanks, no aircraft as well ect) though i understand that the US is also still watching the China-Taiwan-Situation..
What i would have been interested in the regard of the topic of this vid is the "accounting"-differences between those countrys.. i have a hard time in believing the germans would use the same accounting-tricks as the americans would.. and vice-versa.
Also you said german selfinterst.. i know that.. because of some things our channcelor said, many believe that germany just wants to return to pre-war-trade. But germany has taken at least some steps that indicate it not to be the case and others in the german goverment (i think the greens?) have clearly stated that there can be a return to pre-war-relationships as long as putin's regime is in power.
I personally ( as a german ) believe it is in our best interest that Ukraine win's this war as soon as possible (though i still dont see how), rebuild and replace the russians as supplier and ukraine loosing this war and giving them even more control over rescources and food-producing areas is one of the worst thing's that could happen.
I'd argue that Biden and Shultz have the same feeling about Ukraine. For example, Biden's offer of 31 M1s in maybe a year, or two. This is a joke, Biden has no intent to ever deliver those tanks. The US has thousands of M1s that are parked in storage. At least 300 of these were Marine or Army M1A1 tanks that were parked maybe a year ago, which in a week could be ready to load on a ship.
@@tonysu8860 I don't see your second point. Neither Ukraine nor Russia are afraid to win and they are the only two actually involved in the conflict. Anyone else is just supporting. And if the supporing nations don't want to be directly involved they have to draw a line somewhere.
@@tonysu8860 "Germany's motivations based on self-interest."
I agree with your assessment. However, i still don't see what "our" self interest actually is.
Part of it is the (my?) confusion about who convinced who (USA vs. BRD) to deliver MBTs.
And it doesn't really look like "we" are going to participate from an possible European rearmament (capability to build new Leo 2?).
Your content pleases this crowd right here and beyond measure. Thanks for all the work you do. It's the best I've found bar none. Every Sunday is a Perun gift giving knowledge bomb❤
Fabulous as usual! Thank you so much for all the time and effort you are putting into this.
As an American who has called Germany home for the last 5 years, I can assure any sceptics out there, while Germany may seem timid in their support for Ukraine when it comes to weapons and armor... It is very important to understand how completely they threw a grenade into the industry, by that I mean their ENTIRE economy. No other country has gone to the lengths Germany has to support Ukraine if you take into account how significantly Germany has retooled their economy. Even if you only look at only the petrochemical aspect of Germany's economy, and nothing else. Just imagine retooling and reimagining 60% of what makes your country actually function in the world economy, in support of another country existing. I know from the outside all anyone see's is tanks and weapons and waffling here and there. But Germany really is trying, and deserves a bit of slack. Anyone who has not lived here for any length of time can not properly understand how sincerely Germany wants to make sure the world understands it is not the Germany of the 1930's. They are a wholly and completely different people.
Nice to know, sincerely tnx
No. Germany doesn't deserve slack merely because it has been humbled into picking a side. Yes, the Germans have had to reenvisage their energy logistics, but only because they had been flirting with Russia and curating a reliance on Russia for a decade, deepening economic and strategic-resource ties even after the Crimea annexation. Germans are paying the price for the naivety and greediness of their politicians, but this doesn't absolve them of supporting Ukraine with everything they have. Arguably, they should be providing the most percapita support because they were the key Western enabler of Russia's actions.
@@simonadams Spoken like an American who has probably never "yes I am making an assumption here" ventured further than Mexico or Canada if even that far from the comfy neighbors that are the persistent norms that make you feel cultured... As someone who has lived more than a year of my life in 5 different countries in Europe, as well as Asia, and South America. Sure I have not lived in Canada or Mexico, so those are simply hyperbole for me. Germany was most definitely not "HUMBLED" into picking a side. I implore you to look at the beginning of this conflict, and note when Germany said unequivocally FUCK you to Russia.. And understand from the first inkling of we will not even pretend this is OK was the end of Russia being friendly toward Germany... Things became a proper oh shit we need to change our whole universe. Sure the US has sent Billions to Ukraine, but the US has partitioned fractions of their economy to supporting Ukraine. Germany has LITERALLY HINGED their entire economy to Ukraine. So in dollars immediately visible the US is ahead. But when it comes to the EXISTANCE OF THE COUNTRY AS A WORLD ECONOMY Germany is on a similar level to Poland and the Baltics for how much is actually hinging on Ukraine succeeding. You my friend need to step back and look at the world from a larger more geopolitical perspective before passing judgement... (Your ignorance is showing.) You need to remember that in Europe the idea that the 16th through the 20th centuries as a political reality ended in 1991... And remember that America was also under that particular illusion. Before you go casting stones about the Ninevite of Europe and Germany in particular. Europe and Germany "flirted with Russia" because the USA encouraged them to do exactly that, especially post Soviet times because we ALL thought it would encourage Russia to integrate with the Western Philosophy on what the future could be... Grow the "F" up you pedantic child and understand the world will not conform to your backwater philosophy. Russia believes it deserves to be considered a world power, even if it is no longer one. They believe they are, and are currently reeling in the effort to be seen as such. Hence this conflict. STFU in your position of knowing that short actual Nukes your not likely to be effected by this conflict, Germany has to look at this conflict knowing they will can and most likely will be if this is not managed PERFECTLY! Grow up and understand the larger world is bigger than your ideals. "and yes bigger than mine too, I am more than certain I know absolutely bunk about how enormous this conflict is in my life as well as yours."
@@surryan "Europe and Germany "flirted with Russia" because the USA encouraged them to do exactly that"
- No, at least since Putin's first presidency. It ended during later Yeltsin era, with a short flirt by Trump. Also, shifting blame because someone "encouraged" is infantile.
By the way, many countries in Europe suggested that Germany should not cooperate with Russia in undermining security of Russia's neighbours (see: Nord Stream; let's all say hi to Gerhard Schröder) nor help Ruzzia to modernize its arms industry (say hi to Rheinmetall, Siemens and many more.). Many knew and openly said that e.g. Germany deciding to shut down its nuclear powerplants while compensating with increased consumption of Ruzzian fossil fuels was at least partially part of ruzzian influencing campaign.
People who did warn against any of what was mentioned were often called russophobic by German media. Seems like all that "encouraging" only worked in regard to doing what Germany wanted in the first place.
Agains, it's infantile and doesn't add any credibility.
@@randomnobodovsky3692 all you said is actually proved to be BS precisely by how and when Russia invaded Ukraine and how the reaction was. E.g. very obviously the Russians did not consider Nordstream one bit when they made their plan, actually fucking NS-2 themselves mere weeks before going in operation instead of waiting for better weather for their tanks.
In a long list of superlative Power Points put out by Perun, this absolutely has to be one of his very best.
Hear, hear
Your comment around 16:40 is what keeps me engaged! I really appreciate the technical approach you take while also dropping some great humour and Australianisms. Keep up the great work!
Mate, I just found your channel and I am DEVOURING this information. I thank you so much for sharing such amazing information in such a digestible medium length format for viewing or listening to nearly everyone. I am deeply grateful for your contribution to the whole information landscape around this war
This channel takes Death-by-Powerpoint and turns it right on its head. Great stuff.
I am constantly impressed at your depth of research, resourcing, and detail, but on top of that you abilities as a consummate presenter of that information in a compendious, digestible and engaging way. You made me chuckle more than once - and as a Kiwi, I can appreciate your 'Down Under' frankness and wry sense of humour! Your channel is, to me, the most effective one around in terms of quality and balance, combined with brilliant and professional presentation. Total respect!!!
Gee how much I love your work. As another Australia I just cracked up at your description around escalation 👍 I can only hope this gets to as broad an audience as possible
Every time Perun says "Okay now I will lose all my audience by talking about-"
I go "Aw yeah, I get to learn something insightful".
Mate, you'll have my ongoing support for as long as you keep producing some of the most accessible and informative breakdowns on defense economics and geopolitics available on youtube. I've paid damned good money to attend classes that weren't as well put together as your presentations.
I'm one of the 6
Edit: As an American I see the 12b replacement as part of the fiscal donation to Ukraine
Also, I like to use your videos to fact check MYSELF because I love the way you can present the raw data.
Simply the best collection of information and probable activities on this subject available.
We are all damn lucky to have your input . Thank you.
I have no idea where you get the energy to do all these videos but know this, thanks to you I'm a much better human. I have a much better understanding of the competing signals decision makers have to weed through. Keep up the good work.
thank you for your insane quality and quantity of videos, keep up the amazing work!
one of your best. Lengthy and concise. i wait for everyone of these
Outstanding work, I look forward to each new video you drop.
What I learned; we are sending aircraft carriers, a mere mortal can never afford a house in Sydney, and I am only one of six people watching partways in, LOL. Very informative and also fun to watch for the Perunisms.
Well if that all you understood, Ok. As long as you're having fun! We need every hand on deck to carry the algo-ammo for Perun! You are most welcome.
I know a friend's son who was a U.S. army advisor in Ukraine before the war. He knows Vietnamese from his parents and picked up Russian in the arm (West Point grad). I asked him, "What did you teach Ukrainians?" He laughed and said he could not tell so he told me one thing, "When you are in a tank and there are more tanks in front of you, backup." I am guessing he taught them a bit more.
TBF, that kinda is legit advice? Since backing up means avoiding getting encircled by enemy tanks, and keeping your tank's thickest armor facing them.
Do you remember when Russian armor columns were outside of Kiev and just sat there in line and got shot at instead of doing *_anything?_* A stationary tank in a column of other stationary tanks has another name: Target.
That's easier said than done in a T-64 though...
@@blackore64 back up in a russian tank. That's a good one innit?
Given that Russian-designed tanks cannot backup at anything beyond walking speed, the Leopards will be useful.
Always enjoy your well thought out, researched, and detailed presentations.
Fascinating content, please keep up your great work!
Thank you so much.