Russian Escalation Strategy in Ukraine - The North Korean Deal, Kharkiv & Putin's "Ceasefire" demand
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 ก.ค. 2024
- Discussions of escalation management in Ukraine are usually framed from a Western perspective and the incremental provision of aid by Ukraine's allies. But as the war carries on Moscow faces escalation dilemmas of its own.
It has an imperative to escalate in ways that place as much pressure on Ukraine as possible, but often attempts to do so prompt responses from Ukraine's allies that put Russia in a worse place than when it started.
Today, we look at four recent Russian lines of escalation and effort in Ukraine, from the Kharkiv offensive to the new partnership agreement with North Korea. We ask what the logic might have been behind those moves, what the effect has been, and ask the question....will they improve Russia's position or leave it at greater risk than before.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Reading and Sourcing (WIP) :
Maps of territorial control per Deepstatemap as always
Visually confirmed equipment losses per Oryx
Kharkiv specific figures per @naalsio26
TASS on KCNA releasing the agreement text:
tass.com/politics/1805661
TASS on the Putin 'peace plan' (including the requirement for a Ukrainian withdrawal)
tass.com/pressreview/1804269
Reporting on Results of the Swiss summit
apnews.com/article/ukraine-ru...
Estonian MoD: Setting Transatlantic Defence up for Success: A Military Strategy for Ukraine’s Victory and Russia’s Defeat
kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/d...
Reporting on US restricting Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory
www.washingtonpost.com/world/...
Reporting on Zelensky removing Lt Gen Yuriy Sodol
www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72...
Reporting on Ammunition Supply
www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
US sending legacy SAMS to Ukraine
www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
TASS on Russian advance in Kharkiv slowing
tass.com/politics/1797759
Featured Guardian article on Kharkiv
www.theguardian.com/world/art...
Reporting on the 'buffer zone' motive for the Kharkiv offensive
www.politico.eu/article/khark....
Chasiv Yar
www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
Featured Stoltenberg quote
www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/ne...
The response to the Putin peace offer at the Swiss summit
www.bbc.com/news/articles/cxe...
Included Kharkiv image
www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-say...
BBC on Putin's ceasefire offer
www.bbc.com/news/articles/c03...
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular - I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Opening Words
00:01:19 - What Am I Talking About?
00:01:43 - The Russian Effort
00:04:38 - Battlefield Dynamics
00:11:32 - Losses & Costs
00:20:10 - Kharkiv And Escalation
00:26:28 - The Korean Connection
00:39:26 - The Long Range Campaign
00:47:59 - Putin's "Peace"
01:00:58 - What Next?
01:02:56 - Channel Update
The F1 might be about to start, but it's a Sunday, and so that means it's time for a release. I hope you enjoy, and hopefully my voice will be back to normal next week.
Thank you for all the Perunning you Perun, Perun!
🇺🇦
What is an F1 ?
@@Khannea car race
Thank you for your _speedy_ releases in spite of the race!
Those "ceasefire" conditions remind me of the quote: “We cannot negotiate with people who say what's mine is mine and what's yours is negotiable." -- John F. Kennedy 1961
Awesome quote.
I'd never heard this quote before. Thanks for posting it!
It reminded me of Medieval Total war .
AI Faction:
Demands
peace treaty
Give us territory
Offer:
Accept or we will attack.
But Putin isnt offering peace so its even more ridicoulus
Russia is waging as much an info war with the west by propaganda and knows that there is a significant right wing appeasement sector in the public, so their threats and calls for "peace" are not a bad idea from their POV
The irony of this coming from a US leader lmfao
As a motorcyclist the concept of being hunted by a drone at speed is really quite horrifying. Across a minefield full of holes. While being shot at. By artillery. Don't mention barbed wire.
They are more afraid of their officers than of Ukrainians
I suppose it is marginally less terrifying than the same danger but at running speed.
But, man, that’s not exactly a high bar, and both of those scenarios sound down right terrible.
@@piedpiper1172 You might avoid the barbed wire if you were running, but you're exposed for much longer but as a smaller target. Hmm. We might need someone to do the maths on that.
You can bet they are very happy they voted for Putin. Repeatedly.
For 20 years...
Barbed wire
Putin is asking for a "cease fire" out of strategic and political convenience, not out of a desire for peace or humanitarian goals.
Most overlooked point in his Proposal is that he wants to have the Sanctions lifted.
Not that these Sanctions do anything to russian Economy 😁
Exactly. His tactics consists of using tanks, rockets, artilery, peace agreements, etc with the final goal of getting at least the whole Black Sea coast into Russia. In one war or in more if needed does not matter for him.
That's geo politics for you. There is no friends or enemies only eternal benefits
@@dean_l33 No, not really. Not unless you subscribe to Kissinger's realpolitik, which the US hasn't done since Reagan and (to a lesser extent) - Obama.
Most western geopolitics are out of idealism. You won't see the west supporting Myanmar's dictator even though the entirety of the population hates him like China.
Meanwhile Russia and China PRAISE Kissinger.
@@slippingsnake Nobody is saying that the sanctions doesnt hurt russia whats happening is that it doesnt make the russian economy "collapse" like many people reported. Thats the problem
When you're talking about the risk Russia faces of NATO escalation, it reminds me of something a comedian once told a persistent heckler: "Sir, please believe me when I tell you that you do NOT want my undivided attention."
That sounds like something Jimmy Carr might say…😁
😅🤣
@@grahamstrouse1165Please, Jimmy Carr would never give a heckler a warning.
The warning signs are the posters for his shows. Once you're in, you're fair game
It is wild to even threaten escalation considering Russia's only deterrent is the West's alien trait of valuing human life to some extent. Russia is not china, it's not like Russia goes dark and the cost of a t shirt and tennis balls goes up by 5x. And based on their military performance so far they're more likely to nuke themselves than anyone else, If that was a real threat they'd be using it way more aggressively.
Well it is divided, one word “Israel” and potentially Taiwan, I know that’s two words lol, two distractions :)
If Russia could limit itself to only _one bloodthirsty nuclear war threat_ per month they would have some more credibility.
The real punter's question is- how well does the military spending match the nuclear maintenance?
@@krissteel4074 Perun made a video specifically about this and the conclusion is that the nuclear deterrence are credible to a large extent
You have to wonder whether Russian officials realize the world is laughing at them😂
@@dpelpal The world is laughing at the USA....try to keep up my uniformed friend
Russia's nuclear arsenal is more modernized and advanced than anything the west has......
Not long ago I visited Slovakia as part of a program to exchange combat experience between NATO and partner countries, where I met a local politician from the ruling party. After several general phrases, he told me that he empathizes with the Ukrainian people, but maybe it’s time for us to accept reality and give Putin what he wants. My counter question about what part of Slovakia he would give to Putin and how many of their citizens he would send to be torn to pieces for the sake of “peace” caused him noticeable irritation. In any case, this small exchange of pleasantries is just a symptom of the Russian narrative persistently trying to convince that it is we Ukrainians who, for some reason, do not want peace. The reality is we are all very tired. This applies to everyone, the political leadership, civil society and, of course, the army. Nevertheless, the vast majority of our people understand that any concessions to Putin are simply a continuation of the war several years later, and on his terms. Thus, the war continues and I don’t see its end yet. A difficult mobilization awaits us, and it looks like the most critical winter will be this year, while Putin will be forced to announce another wave of partial mobilization, or look for the source of human resources in some other way, simultaneously rolling out T34 from museums.
Putin’s good at playing the European right. Russia’s permanently lost its best oil & gas customers. Its Soviet-era stockpiles are mostly depleted & even China is kinda sick of Putin’s shit. Russia’s an economic pariah now. Sure, some companies would be willing to jump back in & sell stuff there again if they had a chance, but nobody’s going to make the mistake of trying to do business with Russia for a VERY long time.
Worse for Russia, they’re running out of young men at a staggering rate. The male life expectancy in Russia is on par with that of The Democratic Republic of Congo’s. Between combat casualties & men just up and leaving the country’s lost a huge portion of its useful military population and an even larger chunk of its educated young people.
Wars are still mostly fought by young men. Russia doesn’t have many left. The only parts of the country where the population is increasing are Muslim majority (think Dagestan) and they’re becoming a recruiting ground for ISIS-K.
Russia will fail. The question is how many people will have to suffer and die with it.
Russia is still a bear, but it’s Cocaine Bear now. You know it’s not long for the world but until it strokes out or suffers a fatal heart attack it is still a coke-fueled bear….
With his "offering" Putin is ultimately appealing to the latent indifference and lack of empathy found in humanity, the indifference in knowing what are the terms of such a "deal", the indifference in reflecting on what it actually entails and costs the victims of said "deal", and the complete and utter lack of empathy, as they don't put themselves in the position of those victims. "Please accept surrender, you are an inconvenience to me" such people say, to the war torn nation.
and then everybody clapped, right? gtfo lol
@@edwardkennedy6443 Amen brother,🖕🇷🇺 🦕🦤🦣🇷🇺🖕🇷🇺
@@NiiRubra I think it’s not so much about empathy as it is about the money and benefits that an authoritarian regime can offer to some European politician. The pinnacle of their career may be election to the European Parliament and 100-150 thousand euros a year, while the Russians will gladly give them millions of dollars, boys, girls, yachts, real estate and in general any whim for every taste. Fortunately, most European politicians understand that they still have moral principles, and this gives hope for the best.
Nothing like the infamous bonsai charge, where both sides end up in hand to hand combat with delightfully aesthetic small trees.
Your joke is valid. But to be clear - Perun was talking about banzai, not bonsai. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banzai_charge
@@__---__----__---__
"Uhm, acktually 🤓☝️"
As a Pole I am petrified how the European conglomerate fails to boost its ammo production, and that's 2 years after war started.. 😢 I cant possibly comprehend that
Nobody wants to do manual labor anymore. Everyone is Twitch streamer or TikTok celebrity
Nah it did not fail. It increased massively. But just not as much as some people hoped for.
The problem is that Ukraine is fighting a war we would never fight. I served 17 years as an artilleryman in the Danish army. 15 of those years as an artillery commander. Our projections on when, why and what we'd use artillery on boils down to:
1) Mopping up the crumbs after the airforce has broken the bread.
2) Containment, via blockade fire, in maneuver warfare, to make sure the armoured infantry has their back safe.
3) Select stubborn targets that are fortified enough that air bombing would take ages while also being low value enough that breaking out the expensive bunker busters is not in keeping with frugality principles.
This means that even quadrupling our artillery shell output is still a bloody drop in the ocean. Ukraine would ideally need half a million shells a month (which translates to 167 fresh barrels a month!) to pummel Russia into submission. But allied total production capability, even if we assume South Korea goes brrrr, is a far cry from that.
And what everyone is asking is: "What do we do with umpteen factories once the war is over?"
The real problem is that we told Ukraine to fight an artillery war without artillery. Shit like ATACMS, fighter jets, combat helicopters, and armoured infantry is what we should have focused on BEFORE Russia mined everything to oblivion. We were too bloody slow, and now we will have to pay three times as much in money, and the Ukrainians will have to pay five times as much in blood.
@@andersjjensen Exactly this, yeah. Occasionally I see pro-Russian commentators laughing about the fall of the "arsenal of democracy" and I feel the need to respond by saying that the USA alone fields _four separate air forces_ larger than Russia's, to say nothing of its European allies. NATO can't win an artillery war and it doesn't _need_ to win an artillery war- because it has so many aircraft and precision fires that it could obliterate the Russian air force inside of 24 hours assuming proper prep time. A cold war gone hot would be over so fucking fast it would make the Gulf War look like a joke. Towed artillery, which Ukraine depends so heavily on, likely wouldn't even get a chance to fire before the outcome of the war was decided.
@@andersjjensen still those numbers are preferable to the hundred fold multiplication of cost if Ukraine loses the war.
"we stop shooting at you if you give us everything", sounds like a very gentlemanly offer /s
USA operated on much this model for decades now, seems fine.
@@robcanisto8635 You oppose that modal right? Or is it only good when your side does it.
@@robcanisto8635 I disagree with the second part of your statement.
@@NIL0S but the other guy doesn't
@@jack727dave5I think it’s unfair but that’s the reality of being the winning side. It’s all about what options Ukraine realistically has. If they realistically had the option of taking back all of their territory and still having a functioning country left over to save at the end then Russia wouldn’t be able to make that offer so they’d be asking for a lot less.
Reading part of what Putin said about that June offer he made, he was openly saying it’s a worse deal than what was agreed to in 2022 and that if they wait longer the deal will only get worse. So I suspect there’s some intention there to try to make it seem like the sooner they negotiate the better the offer will be, and therefore conversely it’s not in Ukraine’s interests to simply drag it out to try to weaken Russia, which is what some in the west see as the benefit of prolonging the war. I think this is meant to perhaps appeal to Zelensky to realise that continuing the war might be something the Americans encourage but it’s not a good idea for Ukraine. Sewing the seed of division there mentally.
As pointed out by Vlad Vexler, no one is talking about Putin’s ultimatum also demands _“the withdrawal of inappropriate military presence in the regions where it doesn’t belong as a precondition for the establishment of adequate Eurasian security.”_ Translation: he wants NATO to completely clear out & abandon all of Eastern & Central Europe before he’d be willing to discuss anything regarding Ukraine.
Which is absurd because he's not negotiating with us. He's supposed to be negotiating with Ukraine.
@@timothystamm3200 He doesn't consider Ukraine to be a real country. He is still of the firm belief that Ukraine is just a puppet of the collective West, lead by the US, and as such talking to the Ukrainian government is farcical waste of time.
@@Warfoki Which just proves how stupid he truly is. If the US controlled 🇺🇦 like Putin claims, then Zelenskyy not long in office would have given Drumpf “dirt” on Biden which he demanded for the 2020 election. Zelenskyy said to fk off!!!
Just cuz you are helping a country, doesn’t make it yours. But Putin does do exactly that, with his. That’s why all those countries LEFT his azz. So of course he thinks the US does it too.
@Warfoki and he'll discover he is wrong when he tries that because Ukraine won't agree to a deal that they didn't play a part in negotiating, and we won't leave places we've been asked to be in especially while.the Russian army is on the field.
Tbh, he could be pulling a older than dirt sales tactic of starting out with a insane demand then hashing out a negotiation for closer to what he wants and be seen as "compromising". But who knows by this point really.
"In war as in business, its often the case that you feel like your short on absolutely everything, except for idiots" 😂😂😂
Brutal 😂
but very relatable
Ain't it just 😂
I wasn't sure someone would type it for me - but I was pretty sure ;-)
Thank you.
"I'm surrounded by assholes!"
"We are lucky they are so f&cking stupid"
Russians wishing they were the White Scars, using motorcycles on the battlefield.
Between this, and drone operators playing Warthunder IRL, reality has taken a tragic comedic turn.
More like Death Korps of Krieg
the motorcycles realy remind me of command and conquer generals
@@l.h.9747”can I have some shoes?”
Horde of Jaghatai is here to serve.
@l.h.9747 but remember that motorcycles were also an important part of Kane's vision
"Very clever young man, very clever! But the drones stand atop more drones. In fact its drones all the way down!"
I loved that series so much
Drones? It always was.
As someone else commented in a different video:
"A North Korean vs South Korean proxy war on European soli was not on my 2024 Bingo card."
"Russian army starts active use of motorcycles to seize Ukrainian positions"
I see the Russian Federation has taken the GLA Combat Cycles route.
Russia wishes it had a support power that pops up a secret tunnel leading behind enemy lines anywhere free of cost. Clearly the GLA had done better for itself.
“Thank you for the new shoes!”
“AK-47s for everyone!”
The whole 'you can't use our weapons across that map line' is so very stupid. You'd think the US would learn from Korea & Vietnam...
You can learn a lot about geopolitics by observing the nearest playground.
US politicians have always been a little obsessed with stupid map lines. Literally every war we get into, some map line inevitably screws us over.
@@mage3690US politicians are very practiced when it comes to fking with map lines (aka. gerrymandering) that they think it has the same power and significance in war as it is in elections.
Your voice sounds much better bud. Glad to hear that you're fully recovered. Thanks for the great info as always. We here in 'murica love your work!
sounds like he's speaking trough nose
@MaximumEfficiency
Dont be like that, where is the love❤?
@@rickardgabolaev9262In his nose, I assume.
Yes, it's Perun!
My Sunday is complete...
What a miserable life you must have to listen to nose-full of speculations.
Maximum inefficiency....
No potato for you.
Conscription dodger.
Weekly dose of delusion..
Hello, Russian bot No. 1
Hello, Russian bot No. 2
Russia and DPRK trading weaponry is like Temu buying inventory from Alibaba 😂
Everything that Russia claims is part of the Crimean Tatars. So it's not Ukrainian land
What Ukraine has done with FPV drones is amazing. There has been a lot of talk about the Javelin, JIMARS, or TB-2, but FPVs deserve to be just as famous.
Yes, but they are lot more sensitive to jamming, which made their effectiveness limited to entrenched positions, where artillery still has advantage.
@@madkoala2130 Many of the fpv drones use analog feed so they're lot harder to jam than your normal quadcopter that drops grenades. That's one of the reasons why fpv drones are becoming more relevant.
@@spao9411how is an analog signal different from a digital signal?
@@nolkerss in terms of FPV, Analog has lower and more consistent latency, additionally, in a digital system the camera unit and goggles relay a signal back and forth on a wide range of bands, coded to be received by that unit specifically. whereas on an analog system the drone broadcasts on a specific band, which the goggles can tune into to receive the signal. this makes it so that the video signal is sent from drone to pilot, and the control signal is sent from pilot to drone.
At least thats what I remember from my time flying couple years ago. happy if anyone has more corrections or clarity on that front, especially regarding jamming.
@@Sep141this is for the goggles, you also have analog controllers. But those are very easy to jam
It must be great to be able to count on Syria & North Korea as allies.
The union of crappy dictatorships😂
And let's not forget Iran
@@jlGenozzVIran’s genuinely dangerous.
@@jlGenozzVwell Iran does not see russian occupied territories as legally russian, so not 100%
Unlike the west, DPRK actually has a MIC. The west can't produce shit
Sunday is saved
You have nothing better to do?
@@MaximumEfficiency You have nothing better to do either?
.. saved by fantasy fiction.
@@MaximumEfficiency not really, I like listening to Peruns videos while training and doing chores
@@endo4137 of course, I didn't even listen this shite
Thank you for pointing out the inherent dishonesty of the Russian "ceasefire," proposal. However, it is a sorry state of affairs when you feel that it is necessary to do so.
Like he said, it's the 21st century, where common sense is optional (might be misquoting but it's to that effect).
About as dishonest as promising not to expand NATO one inch eastward.
I am engaged by this content. May the algorithm bless this slide deck.
I'm not familiar enough with WH40k to write one for this -- but this reminds me of the Cult Mechanicus prayers for some reason.
the omnissiah is pleased with perun’s offering
Vode an bro
29:07
"Destroy an economy, that doesn't exist"
Brutal💀
NACO is not a defensive alliance. They illegally bombed Yugoslavia (direct violation of the UN Charter). We must never forget what they did to Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.
@@MaximumEfficiency No matter how they spin it , yes there was a genocide but the bombing of yugoslavia was not a defensive war so you are correct
@@MaximumEfficiencyhaha keep trying
@@ThomasZukovicit’s in the middle of European countries so it was a topic that relates to us too.
Btw if NATO is aggressive, can anybody tell my why Russia is pulling all their forces from the Finnish border to deploy them in Ukraine? There’s something wrong about the Russian statements. Again. And again. And again
The sad facts are that North Korea's only real area of industrial "strength" (artillery and dumb missiles) is what Russia needs now, while Russia's main areas of export strength (energy, food and cold-war era armaments) is what North Korea needs the most. Their cooperation was likely inevitable, they just had to realize those facts, although whether or not their cooperation goes much further is questionable. Good video!
NK gets long range missiles now
@@NathansHVAC NK and other rogue countries like Iran dont need the weapon itself, they need the know-how, i think that's what they want from Russia, blueprints, documents from missile systems and they want to build themselves in the future, even India needs technology transfer from Russia
NK has been building lomg range missiles since the 80s in such numbers that their exports were what single handedly bankrolled both their nuclear program, ballistic missile program, and ballistic nuclear missile submarine program. About twenty billion USD's worth.
Putin could always convince North Korea to annex Russia, thus Putin could become the regional lord of the province North-Western Korea, ensuring access to American food aid and other perks.
Paradox game player😂
Not going to happen. If nk goes to Russia, the luxury of available foods will immediately demoralize their people. While RU is much more poor then the West, it's paradise here in Mordor compared to NK
@@BoraHorzaGobuchul*watches the joke fly overhead
I really don't think Russia needs food aid as they are one of the largest food exporters.. 😅
@@gideonmele1556 it's not that much of a joke if you were to replace NK with China. Poo teen had made so many concessions to them that he's almost made RU China's client state
A shell is by no means always a shell. Occasionally it becomes an explosive that blows up _your own gun_ when you fire it. This happens invariably if there are any voids within the high explosive filling because those cause friction when the shell is accelerated. And that is why the Swedish factory making those shells that recently put out a video about it, uses an x-ray machine to check every single shell for voids. Steps like these are the reason why Western-made shells cost upwards of US$ 4k a pop.
The biggest concern I have about the recent Czech initiative of going around poor countries to buy back old artillery shells and sell them to Ukraine is how well they survived their global travels to who knows what kind of places and climates and being stored in who knows what kind of damp cellars, and whether or not they might not lead to increased numbers of kabooms on the Ukrainian side. Fingers crossed.
Maybe *Rheinmetall* can check shells from dubious sources once they open that eight-billion-Euro shell factory that we German taxpayers recently gifted to them so that the private company, listed on the stock exchange, can start making 50 days' worth of arty shells _per year._ Measured in Ukraine shell consumption figures.
BTW Rheinmetall's entire turnover in 2023 was _less_ than the cost of that factory. It really makes me wonder why we German taxpayers can't simply build that factory for ourselves, and keep it, rather than send Rheinmetall's stock prices skyrocketing and give any insiders a great stock trading opportunity.
You realize that factory will still be benefiting German taxpayers in multiple major ways, right? Same way America gets to be so wealthy despite most of the actual American _products_ being manufactured elsewhere.
Don’t underestimate Czechia. They’re not gonna be buying bargain basement garbage.
@@PhysicsGamer Your comment taps into another part of why the average german may not be happy about this - greater wealth for the nation doesn’t necessarily mean anything for its people. The american economy has done incredibly well the last couple years but voters are increasingly furious that they’re not seeing any increase in wages, because all the money goes to the rich stockholders and gets shuffled around between them.
Tldr, good for the german economy may not mean good for the german taxpayer.
@@nathagar9251 Voters _are_ actually seeing major increases in wages - above inflation, even. It's mostly just the public perception that it's not happening, which gets constantly talked about because it's rather odd.
@@PhysicsGamer None of that is a good reason to give a privately owned for-profit company billions of Euros in presents. Especially not in Germany *whose constitution* says that *property, and of course especially the tools of production, are duty-bound to **_serve the greater good of society._*
Boy, if you were going to have one of the Koreas on your side in this Russia/Ukraine conflict, I'd say I'd definitely prefer the support of South to North.
Yeah, If Ukraine had the other Korea, their howitzer wouldn’t be forced to fire smoke shells to make up for the gulf in artillery capabilities.
@@nihluxler1890 they don't have any Korea right now, except through proxy artillery shell sales via the USA.
So you can crow about the Russian artillery superiority, but it doesn't change the fact South > North Korea as an ally.
I'm not even sure North Korea has any modern tanks or aircraft. Not that that's what they'd necessarily get from South Korea, but if the quality of equipment out of Russia was questionable due to maintenance issues, boy I can only imagine about the maintenance issues of old North Korean equipment.
Overall, I don't really understand your comment. Yes, Russia has more ammunition. I'd still take South Korea 10/10 times.
Edit: also well placed smoke is awesome, denegrate its use at your own risk.
@@lemming573You would be right about North Korea. Their tactical gear & weapon systems might interest a vintage collector. They’re still operating vehicles and airframes that, in some extreme cases, were state of the art in the 1950s.
@@grahamstrouse1165 extreme as in 'that's the best they have'?
@@lemming573is this in a hypothetical situation where neither Korea is allies to anyone else and so there exists an option to be allies with one or the other, but they’re otherwise identical to how they are now? I think that’s the clincher really. South Korea is filled with US military still from the 50s so there’s no chance they could ally with anyone other than America and her allies. NK had no allies really other than a reluctant awkward relationship with China haha. And even China had sanctioned them.
It’s actually bad now how this new axis force is forming where disunity on the otherwise used to be commonplace.
putin you are in no position to demand anything except kims side of the bed.
Putin just called a press conference. He saw your comment and decided to surrender.
He is absolutely IN position
@@user-me5oq3kl4h you are only at the begining of the 110 billion in arms being sent. the goodies that are coming are really going to do damage. all while that dumbell is bombing childrens hospitals....556,000 dead or dying troops from rusha...yes I can see the position he is in comrade.
"In war and in business it's often the case that you feel like you're short on absolutely everything, except for idiots." -> YMMD 😂
I would like to note that the "give up any cards you might be able to play before we start negociating" is basically what the 1918 armistice represented vis-à-vis of the Paris peace conference. It was a surrender, and something too many people forget.
An Austrian painter didn't.
Well done vid Aussie. It's great having you back! #StandWithKiwiland #StopEmuAggression
I was very disappointed when i learned those hashtags didn't lead to anything. Who's up for making a channel covering the emu-kiwi crisis?
I love putins proposal remember when his country guaranteed Ukraine's sovereignty. This is hilarious 😂
remember its gov was overthrown and they started recieving NATO weapons and training, thereby loosing any claim to neutrality? pre 2022
yea bro, when a gov is overthrown-you really cant complain if prior treaties are not honored
Ya'll NAFO really dont know jack shyt
lets see what your CNN tier knowledge of US foreign policy is
And took away their nukes in exchange . Nope, can’t trust the kleptocracy.
Yeah well the situation is quite different, back then Ukraine did not want to join NATO and in the Kremlin the biggest threat was a drunk Boris who just sold his country to certain selected people in exchange for Vodka and keeping quiet.
That was Boris Yeltsin, not Vladimir the KGB-thug Vladimirovich.
My eye starts twitching when i hear "escalation management"
Yup... Can't we just charge for Moscow now? :P
@@andersjjensenthat’s a strange way to spell “The End of The World”
Check today's news and rethink your options, denizens of ivory towers.
Ah poor Chamberlain, a man that had personally lost a great deal due to the First World War and one that had by the end understood his failure but will forever be the face of the worst of appeasement.
Jake Sullivan is vying to be a close second, as is that Bible thumper, who only thumps it and doesn't believe it applies to him, Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson
Many people lost a lot in WW1 yet knew that WW2 was coming and that Chamberlain was a fool to believe otherwise. So yes, he deserves his place in history as a well-meaning but ultimately foolish leader.
Motorcycles and golf carts, is this the “full Mad Max” stage?
Bicycles!
Not enough spikes and leather daddies.
I thought they where going for more of a Megaforce vibe
Scooters 😂
And even unarmed with crutches 🤔
I can't imagine how horrific it must be to be a Russian soldier on the frontlines in Ukraine. Death is coming at you from every direction, including your leadership. It's just mind bending. No wonder so many of them surrender when they get the chance.
Russia has 6 times more Ukrainian prisoners of war
@@user-me5oq3kl4h source?
I think you're delusional if you think Russians are surrendering more than Ukrainians.
Да-да. Все ужасно. Децимации каждый день.
Ceasefire=please give me time too rearm.
With a side-order of “Give me everything I invaded Ukraine for.”
This is exactly what happened in Korea. The UN went into cease fire and the chinese just stalled for time to build Maginot 2: this time it actually works boogaloo and THEN started negotiations from a position of strength.
@@nathagar9251 that sounds like some Korea cope.
@@ctrlaltdebug I’m not sure what you’re referring to, as this is a matter of historical fact.
@@nathagar9251 much of history, especially war history is propaganda.
If we’re seeing motorcycles, how long before we see the return of horse cavalry?
Horses are way more expensive than bikes though
I dont think Russia has enough horses to arm one cavalry division.
@@BoraHorzaGobuchulway cooler though...
Very long. Horses are much more expensive and maintanence intencive than jury-rigged motorcicles.
Of course people are replying that this is unlikely because horses are more expensive than motorcycles. The thing is , the Russians aren't using motorcycles because they're a good idea, they're using them because they're available. We'll see Russians riding horses to battle just as soon as a Russian who knows how to ride a horse has access to one and nothing else.
I'm sure that South Korea and Japan are quite happy that the DPRK is sending weapons and munitions elsewhere. And it would be really interesting to hear what China thinks of this mutual defence pact between two of its nuclear-armed and highly aggressive neighbours.
The problem is what Russia is going to give to N. Korea in return. If it is technical assistance in making (or miniaturising) nukes or improving the range and accuracy of their missiles, it will turn out to create a big problem for the future. N. Korea will be much a much more dangerous and unpredictable adversary in the future.
If N. Korea is a huge annoyance to Japan and S. Korea now, think of how it will act when it knows that their weapons are much more accurate and dangerous, or if they have the range to hit the continental USA.
Of course, this also creates problems for China too; the whole situation in Asia will be more precarious and any conflict in the area will escalate Chinas problems with its neighbours and its economy.
Since the DPRK is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Beijing and Moscow is now a vassal of the Son of Heaven, I’m sure the Middle Kingdom is quite happy to have its subordinates getting along with eah other.
They obviously arent, russia is probably paying top price for everything north korea sends which only strenghtens north korean military and regime in medium or long term even if it might weaken it in short term.
It's literally a testing ground for North Korean weapons. We don't want them to have battle tested weapons
"Meat Wave" sounds a lot worse than "human wave"!
Russian version of Meat Wave was invented in the Great War by none other than good old General Brusilov himself so beloved in the West for some reason
and that is the goal of the phrase: anyone using the phrase "meat wave" considers that in such waves humans are wasted as something not worthy of any real value
@@qZbGmYjS4QusYqv5because it was effective in the First World War, and looking at the Ukrainian war at the moment, I’m not surprised it’s seen a resurgence
Thank you 💛 Perun for covering Ukraine. I'm glad you are feeling better, and your voice is very good! Have a wonderful week and I'll see you next week.
What I gather from this is that each side will continue to see each other’s “final proposals” as unreasonable unless some sort of strategic shift occurs on the battlefield, where one side loses a lot of territory. And given Russia’s wet fart of a Kharkiv offensive, I hope it will be Ukraine who is able to turn the tables and temper Putin’s expectations.
Don't expect any Ukrainian counteroffense till the next summer though. A lot of reserves were spent to hold off Russian
@@qZbGmYjS4QusYqv5 Russia spent a lot of reserves pushing for those attacks...
It is funny seeing people think that someone attacking into fortified positions means that the defender is burning through a high degree of materiale and men.
Russia has of course spent far more resources over the past half year than Ukraine has and if it had not done so Ukraine would have been in a worse position to start any offensives than it is now.
Your reasoning and conclusion are completely out of step with each other and the reasoning does in no way provide any support for the conclusion.
It's an ongoing humanitarian disaster and difficult to see plausible endings which aren't the otherside of more disaster.
@@freedomfighter22222да-да подвальная мобилизация в Украине тоже как то несогласуется.
In the movie the avengers samual jackson has this great line where he says " you say peace, but I think you mean that other thing" . I always get that impression when putler talks "peace"
Но что скажет Байден и его маленький украинский друг?
"Never negotiate out of fear, never fear to negotiate." -JFK
Perun! Hope you've been feeling better, thank you for this Sunday's upload
Has anyone heard recently from the two women in Novosibirsk who were monitoring social media, local papers etc., to try and build ‘real numbers’ of casualties?
I believe that PBS ‘Frontline’ featured them a year ago… (I can’t imagine that they are popular in Moscow)….they went to some remote villages were the fresh military graves were far, far more than the typical death toll a small town would experience over a year, or an average period of time…
The show I saw was truly horrific, in a ‘silent’ sort of way….just lengthy row after row of flowered tripods with pictures on them of newly deceased young uniformed men…most were Muslim/Asian as well…..
It’s so so sad and yet we can only defend our own interests until Russia is denazified.
Of course, because Putin does not like Muslim population numbers. It is an internal threat to the Rus.
New power point dropped!
You were actually first and didn't comment first. Mad respect and enjoy your weekly PowerPoint o7
@@w4nn4cryp79 😎
Wooo
I saw one photo with 17 motorcycles and a couple of dozen bodies and Russian armor... It's crazy.
Perun uploads every Sundays again. All is right in the world.
Okay, not all is right in the world actually but you know what I mean.
Just finished the newest Drachinifel drydock and see Perun uploaded 1 min later. Perfect Sunday night
Drachinifel dropped? Sweet
Drach is next to be watched. I saw Perun first.
Amen on that brother!
You, sir, are a man of culture!
@@skeewiffenatorDrach drops his Sunday Drydock installments right about the same time as Perun’s PowerPoint adventures. I enjoy my Sundays. 🙂
8:57 -- Did you mean Banzai? I think trees were banned by the Geneva convention after the storming of Isengard
🤣I laughed too hard at this.
For the hundredth time this year, FUCK the new york times.
And everyone who looks like the NYT.
Hell they have such a historical tradition of bullshit, even "Dr. Strangelove" made fun of them: In the film, the Russian ambassador states that the Soviets created the doomsday machine because they believed what was written in the NYT.
Fook Financial Times, Politico, Washington Post, BBC, The Guardian and other Putin apologists masquerading as democratic press
more like jew York times
@@robcanisto8635cool it with the anti-Semitism
I appreciate how you zoom out and deliberately avoid a play-by-play reporting style.
As always, I am impressed how well you were able to make a good video out of a powerpoint presentation.
I feel like "trickle charge" would be a better English term for the Ukrainian and Russian infantry tactics than "meat wave".
Glad to hear that your voice and your humour is back!
11:00 i think that maybe a universal constant
*we are never short on idiots*
32:07 When he go to the part about Kim and Putin not exactly being on the same page about whether or not theyre in an Alliance I thought about the Harry Kim and Tuvok meme:
Woman: "Are you two friends?"
(Simutaneously) Kim: "yes." Putin: "No."
My week wouldn't be complete without a Perun video
This video comes *dangerously* close to having lines on maps
That’s Spaniel territory!
@@grahamstrouse1165 Agree - copyright infringement
I'm so sick of that nonsense, it's why I stopped watching his channel.
Russia and Ukraine have come to a peace agreement. The foreign invader must leave the disputed territories immediately, and recognize their sovereignty in the disputed territories. The problem is, they can't come to an agreement on who the "foreign invader" is.
@Perun Thanks for another kick @ss video! missed last week, You are setting a new standard for quality!!
Does anyone remember (looking at you, media) Zelensky’s conditions for ceasefire? He announced those about 12 months ago. Why doesn’t the West insist Putler to respond to Zelensky’s conditions.
Because Zeleshitter in no position to demand anything
The quality of these videos are astounding. Thanks heaps mate
Perun is the best source for analysis and perspective on the Ukraine war anywhere, PERIOD!
Keep up the good work.
He is awesome if you want propaganda
There are some actually academic and military sources
@morgothastares lets hear 10 things he said that were wrong. should be easy no?
@@morgothastartes Propaganda! What would be the motivation? We get both sides of the story both good and bad and I would not want it any other way and neither should you.
@@ThePainkiller9995you don’t understand bias and context do you?
And the very next day, russia made an(other) extreme provocation.
We shall see whether this finally was the final straw. Knowing our cowardly politicians, probably not.
There you are! Welcome back buddy! I was about 18 minutes late and thus well in the 5k realm of viewers.
Missed you buddy.
Thank you for perservering. I find your broadcasts most illuminating. I hope you are better soon.
"Bonsai charge" hehe.
Amazing content, glad to have you back :)
Man Russians are out here innovating the use of motorcycles as if they were speeder bikes in Star Wars 😂
Finally!! Back to Ukraine! Thank you! Yes definitely to topics hinted at such as the Istanbul negotiations! Thanks so much!
Motorcycle assaults? Russians are trying to revive the concept of cavalry, I see xD.
WWI saw the birth of the tank, in WWII we saw it mature, and dominating the world until the Ukraine war.
Now we see the raise of drones and tanks turn into massive targets.
By the way, a snail that started at the start of the war would be 700km ahead of the front
Russia has same ability of containing USA influence as I have in using my farts in creating a return mission to mars.
Yeah no matter your opinions on America even if the US _government_ exerts zero conscious influence on another country the US culture and media have a massive influence. It's pretty telling that Hitler, the Kim's, and some imperial Japanese officials all loved Disney and even North Korea and China copy Disney. There was a bit of a scandal in China because one of the best selling movies based on Chinese culture in years (and one of the all time best selling movies in China) was the American movie Kung Fu Panda and it left Chinese citics even asking "why are Americans making better Chinese movie then we are?". Which isn't the sort of thing you'd expect from any other country other then America to do.
Thanks Perun! I look forward to every video drop!
"A surrender demand wrapped in an information warfare operation", great video as always
I would really like something about the Istanbul Fig Leaf because we clearly need a go-to source for this considering the amount of misinformation surrounding it.
North Korea is very accomplished at evading sanctions. Use of criminal networks, drug smuggling, renting out slave labour, and out right theft.
North Korea has been sanction breaking for almost 70 years. Very well established networks.
Maybe if Russia pulled their troops back inside Russian borders, then they could offer a ceasefire Ukraine could accept.
All the best, Perun; and thanks for another excellent video.
I can't imagine how flawed my understanding of modern warfare would be if it wasn't for this channel. Thank you Perun
As always your logic is excellent. Backed up by common Sense facts presented with PowerPoint
Beautiful.
Always a pleasure watching your work.
Thanks for making these. Stay safe, Perun.
Superb as usual. Your efforts are greatly appreciated 👍
Tankies: This is a proxy war!
Perun: Yes
Tankies: Huh?
Perun: Between North and South Korea
Ah yes, the modern day implementation of the bicycle brigade. A relic from a more civilised age. 😁
So glad to have you back, good health to you.
I'm glad you're on the mend! Great video, thanks Perun.
Did you mention that the Putin ceasefire territories happen to contain a majority of Ukrainian mineral resources. Coal, Oil, Iron, Lithium and so on.
All the other territories are mineral rich too. That's why Lenin wanted Ukraine so much in 1917
10:59 Zapp Brannigan... let the Futurama revivals keep coming...
@PerunAU Get well soon! Best wishes and thank you very much for your very informative videos from Germany!
I Would not be surprised if Russia fights more aggresively the more desperate it is, in a attempt to mimic the Finnish in the winter war, who put up a fierce defense to convince the russians that they were not at all exhausted to the breaking point.
I always wonder why Perun gets it, and others (like Elbridge Colby or Stephen Kotkin) - don’t. Thank you Perun!
Excellent presentation as always, very helpful to understand the moves being made.
Frankly fascinating! Thank you
Great work Perun another brilliant insightful analysis, hope your feeling better soon