Sponsored by Private Internet Access, Use the following link to access their promotional offer: www.piavpn.com/Perun After the delay last week - we're back to a regular schedule this week. This video is the result of a recent poll I put up asking people to vote for their topics of choice. Thanks to those of you who vote (on Patreon and here). One final observation I'd add here, to my other points around the serious threat posed by the VKS even now: What the VKS has accomplished in ground attack, SEAD/DEAD, and other missions reflects a failure to invest in all elements of capability building. Having expensive modern jets in large quantities - but not enough guided munitions for them to drop (forcing them to use dumb bombs) or not investing in tankers and training should be examined and assessed as a potential failure of budget prioritisation and force design. Combat aircraft are expensive platforms, and while there is obviously utility in having large numbers of them - planners may assess that it is preferable to invest in all inputs required to support a given capability (including supports), even if that means sacrificing fighter platform counts or other investment priorities. That observation is not definitive - but rather a point for consideration for policy makers considering future investment decisions.
I really appreciate the transparency around being realistic about your expectations about VPN services, it might also help to disclaim that certain countries hold different laws about what information VPN companies are obliged to hand over to the government, such as India. This might be a further clarification in your next sponsorship. Lastly I would like to say that your videos are the most objective, nuanced presentations on a modern confrontation I have seen, My feedback is a small point not meant to criticise but to compliement. I wish that even a small percentage of the content on military confrontations had the thought and work put into it that yours does, the world would be a better place even if only one other channel matched this. It provokes a lot more critical thinking than other..... lets say.... animation based..... hype training one sided "ïnfo graphic" channels
Also, take breaks, I've seen to many channel creators burnout because they think if they take a break they will lose people or let people down. Look at Robbaz, he moved to twitch years ago but millions of people still sub to his channel waiting for any rare video.
Its a bit hard to be critical with your military planning when the one guy in the room who wants to make it happen only wants to hear 'Yes' from you Saying no is a bad idea... Unless you suddenly want a crash course in flying out a window by flapping your arms
Actually I think the difference is he works in a democratic system serving the population, that obviously also isn’t corrupt. Because however undenyably brilliant Perun is, there are actually quite a few brilliant Russian people as well. But the Russian system just gives very weird results, even when fed with someone comparably brilliant to Perun. That’s the ultimate ”western” superiority!
That "Aliens" reference was smooth as warm butter. Also, the Swedish Gripen has long been *the* most interesting fighter jet out there, to me at least. Swedish engineering is very impressive. I remember hearing about a story, maybe here, not sure, how Sweden used to send fighters after the USAF high altitude spy-planes that crossed into their airspace, but it was understood as both countries having low-key agreed that they take that as an occasion to train their pilots against an unknown, but non-lethal enemy that was doing their very best.
Yes, Viggens were able to intercept and escort the SR-71; a few years ago some Swedish pilots received medals when their assistance of a Blackbird in distress was declassified. Google will find some articles.
Yeah, the Swedish Viggen (predecessor to the Gripen) is the only plane in history to ever achieve a missile lock on the stealthy SR-71, and thus be in a position to shoot it down had the trigger been pressed. In the SR-71s defence, it took no evasive action and always used the same flight path, giving the Swedes plenty of opportunities for rehersals. It was mostly seen as good sport by both sides. However, in 1987 an SR-71 suffered an engine failure above the baltics. The two Swedish Viggens routinely sent out to intercept it noticed the emergency and decided to escort and protect the crippled plane from incoming Soviet interceptors. The pair of Viggens were relieved by another pair who saw the SR-71 safely out of Swedish territory. All four Swedish pilots were given medals by the US air force once the incident was declassified, 31 years later.
Intermediate term legacy hornets was probably the right answer. Number of them are in US private hands but still militarized. Enough for 30-40 airframes and would give full access to NATO stand off weapons and FOX-3’s. Additional airframes are in Europe between Finland, Spain, and Switzerland.
@@KirkFickert Hornets make sense on paper, and interestingly there was a detachment left in Europe when they rotated home to do dispersed ops validation exercises. On the other hand, two engines is twice as much engine maintenance; and it would probably require direct USN logistics support, which may not be palatable.
An air defence radar that has been damaged, or switched off, is less of a threat to aircraft compared to an air defence radar that is switched on. Infuriatingly obvious drivel from anyone else, but a chuckleworthy gem from Perun. 😁
If the scissors can't beat the rock, develop better scissors. And then develop them even more to the point where you've got Plasma scissors capable of cutting through steel. honestly it's probably a good thing Russia isn't peer with NATO because the US MIC would have developed star destroyers by now.
Update - on May 19, 2023, USA told allies that Ukrainian pilots could be trained on the F-16 and that US would work with other countries to supply Kyiv with the jets.
The failure of the Russian air force is probably the most surprising element of the war, to me. The overwhelming numerical superiority would have seemed to suggest a quick air war followed by sustained air supremacy. It really highlights the systemic problems of the Russian military.
Russia is rather amazing considering they still are in a superior position despite hundreds of billions in $ and military equipment sent to Ukraine. Afghanistan defeated the USA and it's allies with much less.
@@mcmarkmarkson7115 Yeah and now imagine if Afghanistan was located next to the US like Ukraine is to russia. Logistical challenges between US and RU are incomparable.
@@doodoodoometal No need, compared to Russia, USA despite already putting more money into their military, also had lots of support in Afghanistan from other nations. While Russia gets very little support from other nations.
@@mcmarkmarkson7115 The Taliban was crushed in a few weeks and was forced to retreat to caves and fight a guerilla war. And the Us waged this war thousands of miles away from home. Your comparrison is flawed, look at the 1991 Gulf War instead. The Russian military could probably not rob a gas station thousands of miles away from home. They are uttelry pathetic considering they were supposed to rival Nato
This was such a well-built presentation! As a former ground crew mechanic in the Israeli Air Force I recognize so many of the challenges you mentioned and that most people tend to miss altogether. Always insightful and well executed. Keep up the good work.
Because civilians can't understand that behind every shiny aircraft, there are hundreds of technicians keeping that thing in the air. Ukraine will win this war because the West is king in logistics and has the better more professional training regimes.
@@Loki1191 We can only hope and perhaps if the fence sitters of the "free world" decide to help Ukraine with anti-air craft or other military assistance.
A huge combined arms assault to retake Sevastopol (and fighting Russian ground, air and naval forces) would literally be like one of those "liberate the capital" type of missions in Ace Combat
Fully agree with your assessment of the Gripen. The C/D variants are due to be replaced soon in Swedish service anyways, so to me it would seem reasonable to send half of them to Ukraine as soon as possible. The biggest issue with the Gripen is that spare parts might be a concern, but production can always be ramped up or outsourced.
Instead of sending half, you send all and half become spare parts. Ramping up production of old model parts when you want to fulfill deliveries of new models is just not suitable.
I think the issue with that may be that (most of?) Sweden's new E models aren't brand new airframes, they are meant to be basically resto-mods of the older models...
@@fat_biker The E models are new airframes, but there is also an upgrade package deal on... I think half the current C/D fleet to give them almost the same capabilities as the E variant, with new radars and a bunch of other soft and hardware.
This will not happen unless 1. Sweden is let into NATO 2. NATO allies agree to base fighter aircraft in Sweden, under Swedish command, until capabilities are at same levels as before. 3. The cost is shared. 4. The countries behind meteor (several European nations, including Sweden) must agree on supplying it. This is not an easy decision. Missiles end up in enemy territory, sure they will be destroyed, but some knowledge will be gained by the enemy. It's not certain Sweden would do it even if these conditions were met, but I'd say it's a minimum. If NATO, as an organisation (it dosen't matter which specific countries) dosen't want to let us in, well, then there is no point in discussing this.
Remember that this plane is built modularly, and customers are encouraged to replace modules with locally sourced alternatives if they so choose. Operators also have access to the Gripen's source code and technical documentation, so it would be a suitable platform for Ukrainian ad hoc mods :)
45:42 Trust me, we are throwing a lot of harsh language at those MiGs. Unfortunately, this is our only ammunition option at this point, and it doesn't seem to be particularly effective
@@B.D.E. Yes, RUSI get credited in the video in large part, but he also talked to some additional sources. I’ll attend a RUSI seminar in Norway in June, so I’ll be interested to hear if prof. Bronk and his colleagues have any updates since their report.
Well, for us, at least. I would hope the Chairman of the Join Chiefs gets a bit better briefing than we do. But I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if these videos make the rounds...
Perun, my already very high esteem for you gone through the roof after the KSP reference 😂 I'm really glad to have found your content since the first video, and it keeps getting better. Thanks and kudos, your work is a masterclass in clarity and how to keeping things interesting for long presentations.
This one of your best ever videos, you knocked it out of the park mate and you just brought a truckload of clarity and impetus to the Ukrainian aerial arms needs. Thank you!
The RWR does signal a medium ranged GBAD 45° right off the nose of the aircraft but this radar contact is just being detected. So depending on where they are flying this really doesn't indicate any danger to the aircraft. In fact the GBAD radar won't even be able to see a return looking at its incoming signal strength. This could even be a friendly radar.
if you're talking about the RWR in the cockpit of that su-25, the specific frame selected was kind of bad compared to the rest of the video. The incoming missile warning starts flashing a couple seconds later, iirc
I was a big plane nut when I was a kid, and I have always liked the Gripen. It's a good looking plane and the rough field operation is something that I always thought was a neat feature.
As perun says the gripen was tailor made for the Ukraine conflict. If European nations could fund the jets it would take the pressure off Sweden. Next difficulty is getting the 36 jets ready. Can enough be gotten through retired, donated a-d model airframes? Build time for new models would Take years but the quicker it begins the quicker they are ready.
@@Yarkoonian She's referring to the constant threat to Sweden from Russia. Russia tests Sweden's readiness all the time, with constant incursions by air, ships (including landing ships with tanks), submarines and all sorts of shit going on all the time.
The lengths to which they went to ensure designing "maintainable in an improvised hideout in the woods" is incredible. Even simple things like accessibility to panels and stuff without needing special scaffolding or stairs.
@@Darwinist Agree. I hear they even made it so that its possible to work on the Gripen while wearing gloves, a simple thing only it makes a lot of difference when ones planes are outside in the winter and not in a cozy hangar.
Honestly, i hate the fact we are still debating this. It's the same arguments against sending jets we already had with tanks. And artillery. And every other weapon system.
@@ewanlee6337 Long training times and heavy maintainance burdens were a concern about the tanks aswell. And about the Panzerhaubitze. And about HIMARS. And about PATRIOT. And yet, the Ukrainians have learned how to use all of them, usually in record time, and the vehicles are all still going.
@@Chrischi3TutorialLPs I should have been specific sorry. The issue is the scale. Airplanes are much much harder to train and maintain so even if the Ukraines do exceptionally, it’s still a big deal. Thinking about it, training could be much faster if it’s just to fly up and fire ultra long range missiles. But maintenance can’t be skimped due to the consequences being much more severe on average on top of just being harder when compared to ground units. Arguably the biggest hindrance though is that the same cost of ground based stuff is just more worthwhile than planes for Ukraine. A lot of the ground stuff being sent would otherwise never be used and so the actual cost is just transport, not the listed price. With the aircraft, the average fighter isn’t critical unlike artillery and such so they’re not particularly worthwhile and the stuff that is worthwhile, the ultra long range missiles and compatible planes, would significantly cut into nato countries actually important equipment unlike the bulk of what they’re already sending.
"Trying to integrate those missiles with Mig29-s would be like trying to make your Windows computer talk to a clay tablet". I just wanted to write down my favorite quote from this vid. Carry on.
Perun: "The dynamic evolution of combat obstacles in high value environments leads to attritional declines in overall combat capacity" Also Perun: "you can yeet it" "a bit shit" A master of language, an artist among us.
When EXPENSIVE shit gets shot, you don't want to use expensive shit, thus reducing combat capacity for said expensive shit Out of fear of losing it. @@geopolitiikkajasota4404
It's not the full-size one though. And it's a 16988 pieces puzzle to assemble, which require a machine shop and some pretty specialized tools. From what people who have bought it say, the engine is the hardest to assemble and mount.
@@wieslawmaciag2142 Furniture that is shipped in a literally flat package that can be assembled into tables, chairs, shelves, etc. IKEA realized a long time ago that shipping costs were a significant component of shipping, storage, and delivery. It was also easier for customers to buy furniture and carry them home. Carry a 6 foot tall cabinet is hard. I can fit a flatpack in my Prius.
thank you for displaying rational and in-depth knowledge. you are doing a huge service to educate people as well as further interest in logistics. thanks for helping promote this type of community that fosters intelligent analysis of these topics.
Thanks again Perun for enriching my understanding of this war. It's still a horrible, regrettable business but understanding more helps me handle it better. Thanks for sharing your knowledge with the rest of us. I hope the Ukrainians and their Western supporters are reading you too- and taking heed.
Just a note about BVR not making an exciting movie- I think actually it *could* but you would absolutely *have* to tell it like those small handfuls of truly surpassing sub movies that work off of suspense and character building. You do actually get intense bursts of genuine exiting action mixed right in with the suspense, and it *can* even break out into full on action- a successful missile defence from long range with all pilots defending dropping from high to low altitude while closing distance is not *that* unlikely from a movie standpoint, and then you are into that awkward 'close-mid' range where a real dogfight (albeit a missile based one) can play out. If you really wanted to go the extra mile you could have that happen only once as the movie's climax with the rest of the times ending in turning away from the opponent and not taking the engagement (pretty common) or nail biting suspense with relief as a radar blip disappears from the screen and your own aircraft *seems* to be intact. Because *movie* there is also no reason why they can't follow the weapons/planes and get very fancy with the camera work. I think it'd be pretty cool to see (but who am I kidding, it would absolutely not be popular hah)
Imagine a political thriller. Two bordering countries, say, India and Pakistan, are on a knife's edge of "will they invade?" in the opening act. The film follows a couple characters, like politicians and high ranking military officers, and also a few combat pilots. If you establish early on that both sides have nukes, you could have extremely tense scenes. Imagine you have an entire "war room" waiting with bated breath, cutting between that and the cockpit where the pilots of each side are playing high speed aerial chicken over the border. The camera slowly zooms in on the radar display, with the green enemy dot refusing to turn away despite radio hailing. The soundtrack cuts away, and all you can see and hear are the sounds of the jet, and the chirping of the electronics. If that dot doesn't turn back, it could mean the end of civilization in nuclear hellfire. I think you could *totally* make BVR tense, it'd just take the right setup.
Just watch Growling Sidewinders or Longshots DCS vids... Especially their BVR videos.. Not many explosions but VERY exciting. (Personal favorite was GS taking an F-18 against an F-14. Both with their standard AA loadouts) Essentially... not action but horror. Kind of like Alien. You know missiles are there... but you will not see them, unless it is way way too late to do anything anymore.
"Behind Enemy Lines" with Owen Wilson actually demonstrates this in its opening scenes. It's Ground-to-air and the "defender" of territory were the "bad guys", but the premise is otherwise the same. A "boring" routine reconnaissance mission suddenly becomes very different because a Serbian general is trying to hide a massacre. The missile system is turned off and camouflaged. Only once it's turned on last-second are the pilots aware of its existence. It's actually one of Wilson's best movies, which is a shame in a way because the writing was poor.
As a swede I wish our government would announce a training and procurement start-up program of the JAS-39E for Ukraine. The training course our own air force uses takes nearly 18 months even for people who are already certified pilots, which is just shy of the assembly and testing time of new airframes for the last batch. Doing so would put Putin on a timer, making a clear statement that unless the war ends before then the Gryphons _will_ show up eventually. It also saves us from having to promise to give up any of our own air crafts, as such an announcement can easily be phrased as only promising to provide the training and authorizing the export of them, and leaving the part of actually providing any aircraft to when the war is hopefully over and Ukraine can pay for them. On the subject of the Meteor missile, we also have our own domestic version of it that exists more or less _only_ because our military has a domestic replicability requirement, which has a slightly different seeker head and electronics to the NATO-adopted Meteor - sending those wouldn't risk the capture and analysis of any NATO-adopted Meteor systems, since our knock-off is built on different systems* and are designed to explode once armed even if it misses or deactivates, while still providing a substitute that is supposed to be good enough for fighting an asymmetric air war. EDIT: I also grew up right next to where the JAS-39Es are built and tested so I have a bit of an innate interest and respect for them, so yeah I'm probably a bit biased in promoting them which is why I'm glad that the argument isn't about the specifications VS other airframes, only the jobs it can do. *Of course, I don't have access to the design schematics or software of either variant so for all I know they could be identical down to the atom, but they are supposedly built on different systems.
If Sweden ever wanted an export market for its Gripens, this would be an ideal showcase, and surely Ukraine will build the backbone of their future airforce once they got a taster:}
@@jong-wonlee4554 the only problem with showcasing a plane in a real war where you dont have air supremacy is that some of these planes will inevitably be shot down.. (even if you went 2000 UA planes against 1000 RU planes) while the US planes (going 2000 against 50 or so) will still claim "superior kill to death ratios"...
I feel like NATO and EU members have been slow to see this war as a Russian gift to take advantage of. For various reasons, some of our own making, Russia was not integrated into the EU in the 1990s, and eventually, Putin built the Russia we have today. Russia has lurked as a threat to the EU since Soviet times, but there was never a way to eliminate it militarily without a nuclear war. The invasion of Ukraine has given NATO a way to do that without a significant threat of nuclear war, despite the hyperbolic threats from some Russian officials. It also gives NATO a way to rebuild Ukraine's military in a way that's compatible in the future. All that hardware that was built to defend Europe against a Soviet invasion and was eventually going to be scrapped or sold to developing countries is now finally doing what it was built for, but instead of defending Europe, it's helping Ukraine to retake its territory. As soon as an equilibrium developed last year, Ukrainian pilots should have begun training on NATO jets and those logistics chains should have been developed so that when their Soviet-era jets were finally depleted, they would be able to make a seamless transition. Abrams tanks won't do them any good if they have no aircraft left by the fall. The delay on aircraft was timidity and creates the danger of Ukraine's long-anticipated ground offensive getting bogged down and defeated as it pushes beyond the limits of its own air cover. Ukraine must make tangible progress or the fickle voters of highly-indebted republics won't want to commit any new resources. The US presidential campaign really starts to kick in later this year and if American voters don't see the lines on the map moving eastward, they will ask how long we intend to keep throwing money at this. After all, our finances aren't so great and our real potential problem is in the western Pacific. It might be hard to convince voters that a defeated and potentially collapsed Russian regime saves the US and EU a lot of money in the long run and greatly decreases the possibility of a war in the Taiwan Strait. If Russia is out of commission, China is alone. Cheaping out now would be a mistake.
As I was watching another of your great video's (as usual )you stated the Saab JAS 39 Gripen would be a good plane for Ukraine. So now I can say Perun agrees with me great minds think alike.
Ha. My husband had to explain Gripens to me 4 months ago and all I got out of it was “short bad runway is good. “ I sure hope smart people in the west want Ukraine to win before the Donbas is turned into a giant bbq pit.
You've outdone yourself. This is why we come here. Poignant insights into what it actually takes to get things done. Backed up by hard research, with a bird's eye view of the strategic reality. Heartfelt thanks. Much appreciated!
don't forget it's so incredibly Western-biased and is basically the equivalent of studying WW2 by reading Nazi newspaper columns and thinking Nazis are winning
@@davest6044 who said there was a winter offensive? Oh wait the same Western sources. You're spoonfed the most obvious propaganda and act enlightened lmao
@Brot Pros Glad you weren't in one of the hundreds of lost vehicles, or weren't one of the thousands of conscripts and skilled fighters wasted in the cold. Stay warm and safe : ) Cheers
I think a 50% availability rate is very generous for Russia’s air force. I suspect it’s more like 25-40% that are combat capable, with up to a third that could probably never fly again because they have been raided for parts. The 50% number probably includes any Russian aircraft that can start its engines and get off the ground. When you look at availability numbers for NATO air forces, an aircraft is listed as unavailable in peacetime if basically anything at all is wrong with it. But the majority of them can still fly and fight. Many of those NATO aircraft listed as “unavailable” would be very available in wartime.
Finally a professional that also loves the Gripen ….I don't know why _but I just like that aircraft_ because it's an example of very clever design that took into account what real world conditions would be like in a war, and not the idealised 'perfect' conditions that many experts design around. [It's like liking a practical car with a lot of clever configurations that's well thought out] And because of its low running cost in peacetime it allows pilots to get a lot of flight hours for little expense. It would have been the perfect aircraft for Ukraine to shop for back in 2014-2016.
As a Swedish tax-payer, I would love to see (at least) half of our fleet *_lended_* to the Ukrainians. The won experiences (and the won goodwill) would be considerable, on top of Russia constituting the one and only military threat to the nation. Everything that weakenes Russia's military strength is good for her neighbors. Like everyone else from my Cold War generation, I was conscripted. My younger friends, similarly conscripted, trained to maintain Gripen, assert the aircraft in Ukraine would fit hand in glove. Even if all of the aircrafts were lost, which I doubt, it would still offer invaluable experiences.
@@jmolofsson I am sure someone in Saab head offices is salivating just at the chance that they could get some real combat data against Russian forces. That alone could be worth a lot.
@@jmolofsson as a fellow Swede, I can only concur. There are also 12 aircraft in Hungary to be reclaimed if they insist on keeping Sweden out of NATO. Rb 15 would be highly useful to lessen the Russian missile attacks from the Black sea.
One correction: The KEPD 350 is a German-Swedish joint venture. Spain just bought it, as did South Korea. Another consideration is that apparently the export version of Storm Shadow only has half the range, so it would be crucial to know whether the UK would hand out the regular version to Ukraine, or the export version.
*Russia will go bankrupt again! Remember it took Ronald Reagan 6 years to break them down. Also remember what killed Russia's economy by 1991, it was that fact the USA and her allies decided to have a massive ARMS BUILDUP. With the USA, UK, Germany, Poland, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan and in the case of Japan even tripling their weapons budget Russia is facing the largest Deja Vu in their history!*
The UK only has 1 Storm Shadow variant in stock. It's also out of production...it would take a lot of money to restart production as all the focus has been on the Storm Shadow MLU and FCASW.
StormShadow has always underplayed its actual range. It’s longer than numbers put out there. From around 2003 There were roughly 1000 bought by the U.K, some have been used. The kepd350, storm shadow, Apache missiles all share alot of components. The storm shadow I think could be programmed on the ground so could probably be launched from any aircraft that can carry it. Obviously a bit risky without proper testing but it’s a war so needs must.
@@Statueshop297 There were around 850 left in UK service, but only c400 were MLU'd. It's not clear what happened to the rest. The French were also, pre-war, reducing their holdings to 100 from 400.
There's just so much honesty, competence and quality research oozing from these videos. Thank you massively for the work you put in to enlighten us mere mortals, Perun!
Honesty!!? Dude keeps showing that Russian military is so bad and now I hear news that Ukraine is about to surrender. This guy gets his information from Ukrainian and British intelligence it seems.
I'm was amused hearing the line "gravity effects everybody equally" because I recently had the frustrating experience of dealing with members of the USAF insisting that they were calculating a center of gravity correctly despite their technique resulting in errors. Apparently gravity effects everybody else equally but if you spend as much as the USAF you get a little bit of wiggle room.
Hey perun, great video. One small correction: the missiles shown on the belly of that MiG-31 at about 32:00 are R-33s (AA-9) not R-37s. You can tell as the rear fins have a straight leading edge and a forward-swept trailing edge rather than the swept leading edge and straight trailing edge that R-37 has, plus the strakes extend further towards the tail fins.
Even though, as an amateur historian And ex infantry NCO, i Have always had an inherited interest in militaries And their organisation i Have never felt interested in Power points about The subject. You, on The other hand, Have got me completely hooked. You bring in (at least to our knowledge) unbiased context, knowledge And information And present it in a deeply enjoyable format. Very well done, all of these videos!
@@frankyb702 What's wrong about being gay for Perun? I'm straight as an arrow yet gay for Perun. Unless being gay is still being frowned down upon in Russia or something...
As always, simply the best analysis of any that I've seen on this war. I've learned a lot from these videos since Feb '22 and this one is no exception. My only hope is that this horror will end and we don't need to keep watching them for much longer. We should send Ukraine everything that it needs to end the war now.
Look around: There's no valid argument validating the charge of "Russian incompetence." You listen to propaganda, because you don't know that information has to be validated with a valid argument. Google, "Appeal to Authority Fallacy." Something isn't true because someone says so, no matter how impressive their credentials. You only believe what you're told, if you don't know this.
@@stevewhite3424 Just look at how the US achieved air supremacy in Iraq and compare it to Russia's inability to gain air superiority in Ukraine, and it will be obvious that Russia is doing something wrong.
@@stevewhite3424 your English is pretty good, but not enough to pass for a native speaker. At least you tried. I award five ruble and half potato bonus.
I would say that Russia not achieving air dominance in the early stage of the war is the most defining aspect of the war to date. I think the battle for Kiev would have been totally different if air superiority had been achieved. There's a reason the US spends so much and relies so heavily on the AF, he who owns the skies also will own the ground.
I will be curious to see how the American doctrine re close air support will be implemented in a combined arms maneuver attack as we are all anticipating to occur this spring. I suspect that there will be some clever use of drones , himars , artillery , harms and ultimately jdams in a coordinated way with armor and coordinated infantry on the ground to stage breakthrough and flanking maneuvers . If this can occur without extensive fighter assistance other than to deliver the jdams in a already briefly neutralized air defense environment then this may rewrite certain doctrine and create a review of capacity enhancements using remote manned systems and real-time integrated maneuver data with a data cloud so big that for the first time one may begin to shine a bit of light through the fog of war. It will make military history one way or the other. To me it would seem that the real time provision of granular data is NATO’s biggest trump card to play and it will be interesting to see if capability demands can be met with systems that have not been previously used in this way and without revealing the capacities of the real top shelf equipment. ( looking at you here Xi )
That’s owed almost entirely to the massive legacy soviet air defense Ukraine inherited. The air forces (especially of Ukraine) played a fairly insignificant role in this conflict so far. If you want proof of that, just look at the absence of any large scale Russian air campaign even as UA planes are reduced to conducting about 5 air patrols a day, well inside Ukrainian territory.
@@nihluxler1890 NATO pilots had problems taking out low flying planes here in Serbia that droped bombs on rebels few times. US pilot even mentioned it. Avax radar did not detect 2 mig 29 planes, as they went into Bosnia in 1999. Avax also did not detect SA-6 radar in Bosnia in 1994, that hit a NATO plane.There are other examples of issues and pilots being anoyed by being targeted by SAMs which cancelled some of their missions. Things can go wrong in a war. Large military airport in my town was still being used even after it was targeted by tomahawk misiles. Another airport ''Ponikve'' was hit by over 200 missiles. Now imagine what a nightmare it is to take out military infrastructure in such a large country like Ukraine and for Russia to do it with their limited number of misiles, training.. also in areas of combat Ukranian units were small, mobile, hard to detect.
Even as a Swede I don't think the Gripen is the best jet out there. (F-35, here's your crown) But you make an excellent point. It was purpose built for this kind of war. It would be incredibly interesting to see it in actual combat. I really hope we send some. Hopefully sooner rather than later.
For this actual theater they might even be better than the f35. And I'm no hater - I've come to see the advantages of Amy through the fog of uninformed crticism. But the combination of Gripen's ability to operate from roads and fire the meteor, plus it's relatively high performance gives it an edge over all f35 version save from maybe f35B which could leverage the STOVL capability but doesn't have equally long range fox3. I believe a squadron or two of Gripens could really clean up in Ukraine. Get some combat notoriety. That would help a great deal with foreign sales...
The Gripen is definitely the best 4th gen fighter short of the F15. But the F15 is a bit like the Abrams. Performance through burning a ridiculous amount of fuel and punching the sound barrier in the face. It's very American. The Gripen would be a lot better if more sales had been found for it, because it could be as cheap as an F16 but more capable as an air to air fighter. In short, the Gripen isn't a bad aircraft, it has more performance than the F16 for half the fuel cost and material cost of an F15 which is just an absolute bruiser. It's the rapier of the skies, and Ukraine would greatly appreciate having some in lieu of F35s. A Gripen will certainly wipe the floor with any Russian tin can any day of the week.
Sandboxx said the other day that as much as 60% of Russia's downed aircraft came from their ground air defence forces. He also was talking about Russian pilot training v US pilot training. Love your content, keep it up.
My Sunday morning routine of Defense Economics slideshows. It’s absolutely amazing that a year later I’m still doing this. Every. Sunday. Morning. As always, great stuff Perun.
Locals in 3 American states have told me there are Ukrainian pilots training at air bases there and have been for months. If they are training at 3 bases, they are likely training at more.
The F16 I thought about mainly because of the huge number of them around. I"m irritated at myself for missing the obvious candidate for the ukrainians, the Grippen. When I read the Title of the video I honestly didn"t think I"d be surprised. Well I surely was, I"m extra annoyed at myself since I"ve allways liked the swedisch approach in designing and building aircraft. As allways well done Perun, well done indeed.
Much appreciate it, even one of the longest videos, subjectively one of the shortest because of the interesting facts and plain explanation. Very well done Perun, it was worth waiting for. Thank You.
Great video! Congratulations! While you were talking about the SAAB Gripen I was thinking about Brasil. The Gripen planes produced under licence in Brasil and with brasilian owned technology integrated cost about 125M USD per plane. Maybe the price tag can be lowered, yet still is a significant price. An interesting option would be the South Africa AF´s Gripens excedents, which have been grounded for several years waiting to be sold. Another option could be 2nd hand EF2000 or F16 planes could be an options (specially considering that some countries like Austria have several Gen1 EF2000 with many flight hours to sell).
The thing about the Brazilian and South African Gripens is that I don't think either of those countries are willing to hand any number of them to Ukraine. Both countries have taken neutral stances to the conflict, with South Africa in particular still retaining close ties with Russia.
The South African ones will only be sold if substantial kickbacks are paid to certain personalities. And South Africa is a Russian buddy these days, doing joint military exercises and all that.
@Douger Rohmer yes, I am starting to see various Russian hands behind all of the possible Gripen suppliers. Russian Naval exercises with SA, Sweden having hard time joining Nato, Brazil being indifferent to Ukraine. Does make me think they're quite aware of the risks of someone offering them to Ukraine
@@geopolitix7770 Interesting thought. If the orcs can mess with US elections and Brexit, it's probably quite likely that they can mess with this sort of thing.
The more of your videos I watch, the more it dawns on me just how deep and wide NATO's toybox really is. And as I realize that, it's also becoming progressively harder for me to understand why Russia thought it was a good idea to mosey on over to NATO's front yard and take a shit on the lawn.
@@linmal2242in 2014, Ukraine basically collapsed. I'm sure Putin was expecting ong them to do so again. However, over the ensuing eight years, they collectively decided they weren't going to do that again, and fought back well enough and long enough to shame the NATO countries into sending them more lethal aid.
I love a good Perun PowerPoint. Doesn't the psychological trauma of countries factor into who will donate the first Western aircraft? Poland isn't shoving refugees into every spare nook and cranny and emptying out their stockpiles just because it's the right thing to do. They're doing it because they have long memories and they know they're next.
I hope that 460 Polish T-72 and PT-91 tanks and armoured vehicles, 14 Leopard 2 tanks, 72 self-propelled howitzers KRAB, hundreds of anti aircraft PIORUN missiles, thousands of MSBS GROT and 28 Polish fighter jets sent by Poland to Ukraine will help Ukraine to win this war. Slava Ukraine. Good and friendly neighbourhood and cooperation between Poland and Ukraine in EU and NATO will bring peace and prosperity for all NATO countries.
26:29 So true! Let’s all take time to remember that even Patriot is a backronym for “Phased Array Tracking Radar to Intercept on Target”. Never underestimate the US government’s love of and *talent* for backronyms. It’s almost a strategic resource in and of itself.
India does this all the time(14:00) IAF is not that impressed with Russian electronics & gadgets, when we purchased the Su-30 MKI we installed our own flight mission computer over the Russian ones along with some French & Israeli avionics & an Israeli heads up display.
The one factor that was underplayed is that as you lose airframes, you don't usually lose ground support to the same proportion. If you're down to 1/3 of your original fleet, but you still have all the old ground-based infrastructure and human resources, you're very unlikely to overtax or run out of maintenance manpower. (Spare parts is a different matter.) You _might_ run into a problem getting 3× as many mechanics cooking in the same kitchen concurrently without tripping over each other. Otherwise, this was first rate.
The statement that if politics where not a factor sending Western aircraft would undoubtedly shorten the war even to the point of covering the cost of the aircraft left me quite sad and hopeless. We have consensus in the West. Yet we "let it go on" because some are worried about unnecessarily provoking the Russians, while they flatten cities with artillery as if it was 1916. I don't want to call the massive financial commitment nothing but it does remind me of the saying that doing nothing isn't far from being complicit. Money's not the issue, as Perun shows just a month of resupply outweighs the cost of sending a fair amount of fighters. So what's the point then, we can support attrition and and let a generation die to absorb fire or we can use the same money to send strategically decisive weaponry that would end the war. And forgetting the human catastrophe for a moment, ending the war is in everyone best interest. If ibstead of sending weaponry, we invested Marshall Plan style into the reconstruction of Ukraine that would actually give a return financially. Plenty in the West would get stinking rich off their pennies on the dollar investments. I imagine prime real estate in Kyiv has suffered somewhat of drop in price, that could make those who rebuild the city very rich. So it's not a question of doing the right thing or any sort of altruism, it's perfectly justifiable by self interest to spare no expense in the swift end of hostilities, be that by providing Gripen, M1 or long range guided artillery. This dicking around while civilians are bombed is not too far from just doing nothing at all.
take my word for it, if we drive them out of Crimea, this empire will begin to collapse from the inside, internal cracks will begin in the Russian Federation . Canada thank you for your help.
It is an interesting dilemma. Sounds like the Gripen is the best choice for Ukraine but the biggest issue has always been its numbers - there are not many Gripens to go around and the question is which countries would want to give up their existing stock to Ukraine. F-16 on the other hand has a long production run and a large logistics base to draw from. In that sense, quantity is a quality of its own.
Every single video you release is just a complete delight and a refreshing break from the shoot-from-the-hip ex-general, talking head approach in all paid media.
And remember..... Giving them the air frames now, gives you a leg up in th post-war defence rebuild. Like printers: give the things away and charge them though the nose for ink. Missiles, maintenance contracts system integration, pilot training ning. Expanding the user base of your air frames. Having them combat proven...plenty of upsides.
Given the recent movement by Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland towards a joint air defense, do you think this would make delivery of Grippens to Ukraine more likely? Or if Sweden joins NATO later this year as Jens Stoltenberg wanted?
The most significant factor is probably whether Washington/the White House approves of it or not. Even if outside of NATO, the aircraft has plenty of American components, so no way to sell, lend or give it away without American approval.
I can't thank you enough for all the time and effort that you put into your videos. I am someone who knew nothing about military things before this war, but now at least I feel I have a decent handle on what's going on regarding logistics and equipment. Again, thank you so much!
Purun, you considered the JAS-39, F-16, F/A-18 & Mirage-2000 but not the Super Hornet. The Super Hornet is a very rugged aircraft with lower operating costs than the Legacy Hornets and any other western aircraft save the JAS-39 & F-16. The Super Hornet is newer than most of the other platforms under consideration so it would likely have high readiness rates. The Super Hornet performs a broad range of fighter and attack missions very well. The USN uses the Super Hornet for a number of missions that would be important for the UAF to include: CAS, SEAD, Air Superiority and Air Strike. The Super Hornet has an advanced Radar/Avionic package and is compatible many NATO weapons. The Super Hornet has one of the lowest radar cross section of any 4th Generation aircraft. Boeing also has plenty of production capacity. The USN could probably get a good deal on an additional batch of the latest Block III Super Hornets and take delivery in short order if we transferred a squadron or two of the Block II airframes to the UAF.
Perun was discussing Hornets generally, as more fit for dispersal than the Viper bc navalized. Were the Super Hornet to be made available I’m sure he’d agree that it’s preferable to the original.
@@theamateuriconoclast, Boeing would likely give the USN a great deal on new Block III aircraft since this would allow them to keep the line running at an efficient pace. The Block II would not be removed from service until the new aircraft could be delivered so fleet readiness would be a non-issue. Perun correctly identified that the training of Ukranian airmen should start now, if this were done then wouldn't the aircraft become available at around the time that the first cadre of Ukranian airmen would be finishing training?
@@dougerrohmer, I suspect that the answer is that Super Hornets wouldn't be available in the next few months but it will take longer than a few months to train the Ukrainian Airmen to operate this system.
@@toddbrackett4277 Well, whatever they buy will require airmen training although probably less than the manual says - the Ukrainians being in a war and all. I would think that the F16 has another benefit which is a huge pool of trained maintainers and pilots and I wouldn't be surprised if some kind of a Flying Tigers setup happens.
I love that the Poles are threatening to send their planes anyway, permission or no permission, if it takes too long for the other western countries to do the same. Poland isn’t messing around.
The other Scandinavian countries could chip in and cover for the lost combat power in the Swedish sky. We already have a program in place that could give us the framework to work with. This is doable.
Applause, applause! I have already watched this twice and am looking forward to going thru it piece by piece to fully grasp all of the content. Nuanced technical analysis in this area is rare as hen's teeth and I confess that I must work hard to grasp it all. Thank you for providing content week after week which educates and inspires, I find myself enlightened and compelled to learn more.
idk why i do love to hear that broken perun record thing where he goes in a tangent about the 90's... but i do. THANK YOU man, your work is invaluable in general and i expect this piece of work to be as well. I can't seem to find the right word, humanitarian seems a bit much but i'm pretty close to qualifying your work as philanthropic or of public service as it's just SO refreshing to have an -if not unbiaised- transparent and reliable comprehensive source on those topics.
It would be lovely if you were to provide the name of just ONE, a measly SINGLE ONE of your unbiased sources. Breathlessly awaiting your rational and well thought out response.
@@stevewhite3424 well breath deep and slow Nlw that you have the answer maybe it will help with that anger bro no need to get confrontational... Regarding unbiased sources, i'm a scientist, i understand the meaning significance and value of unbiased sources but i'm utterly incapable of analyzing a source to the extent of saying it's unbiased because i am completely out of my depth here, as is 99.99% of the population though they may not recognize it. So even if there was an unbiased source amongst my watch base, i really couldn't say for sure that it was unbiased as i lack the expertise to analyze in depth. And more specifically regarding your point though i didn't like how you said it i do agree with the implied message. Perun is the closest i have to an unbiased source, i think. But that's not BECAUSE he's unbiased. He admits to his biais regularly which is one of the reasons i trust him so much, it's what we do in science, i know that i have a physicists biais, one that is biased torwads simple, elegant "perfect" solutions, but that shit may as well be unicorn biais in regards to it's application on messy dirty insanely intricate human fuck up. So yeah i'd like to have an unbiased source but until i do and i have a way of verifying it, i'll stick to the perun like model for what a best case source can look like. Doesn't mean i take his words as gospel just that i don't have any better. The other souces i have, and i have a bunch, are painstakingly tedious to watch for the most part imo. And thats cause of the large to beyond massive bias they have. Russian sources are easier for me, cause i kind of treat them as some sort of comedy, i do try and admit when they say something true, but when your sources are talking about (cumulative, nobody said that shit in one piece to my knowledge) fighting against "nazi homosexual nato demons" that happened to be led by a jewish (demon? Man?) it's hard to take them seriously. Pro ukrainian bias on the other hand is much more insidious. It wears a veil of objective fact reporting yet subtlety-or not so subtlety in many cases- twists the narrative to favor the ukrainians though techniques like fact omissions, (de)emphasis on certain info etc. If you don't know this following channel i highly recommend you go check it out. Warning this is the most outlandish ridiculously pro ukrainian one i know, there's probably worse but i find this already hard to watch. The name is anker news i thing, EVERY video announces THE FINAL DEATH BLOW TO PUTIN HAS BEEN DEALT, and after wiring this caps down i realised it may very well pass as one of their titles lol. Go in for the laugh not the fact
@@alexisjuillard4816 Internet superposter tells me to calm down and then posts twenty seven paragraphs of response. You're lack of self awareness is truly astounding . OBTW, nice post editing after comments.
Providing the Ukrainians with Western aircraft and ordnance is all well and good but what they really need are trained and experienced pilots and ground crews. This will get the aircraft in action as soon as possible, expand their airforce give the Ukrainians a well deserved break. The F-16 is the ideal candidate for this mission. If the Falcon is used this gives the Ukraine access to a huge international talent pool.
@@Dafnessific You'd think the big brains in the pentagon could figure out how to use an "I" as an alternative to the "A". I'd like to think that they tried.
Ukraine announced they would allow foreign pilots to fly for Ukrainian military. Ukrainian pilots have been quietly training in Oklahoma, Missouri and Arizona that we know for certain. It seems ridiculous to train Ukrainian pilots on f-16s with no f16s in Ukraine and equally ridiculous to invite foreign pilots to fly in Ukraine with no planes for them to fly. It seems obvious that planes are either on their way or already there. Perhaps different countries will simply send planes complete with pilots.
"AKA the nato scissors beat rock model" that one caught me off guard nearly sit mmy coffee out lol, idk much about Australians but i do know british american and french humor and you'd definitely qualify for a masters in british dry humor. Coming from a french and american dude that's pretty much the only compliment i can make involving Britain lol.
If Ukraine continues to be an independent nation, it is prudent to consider the Russian threat to be perpetual. Best to get started with training and equipping for every system needed to deal with that threat. Russia will never stop trying to limit the power of the Ukrainian armed forces until the current regime gives way to something radically different.
PS take my word for it, if we drive them out of Crimea, this empire will begin to collapse from the inside, internal cracks will begin in the Russian Federation
@@malinoisLinda The Russian Federation may have to pull back from Crimea, but I do not think it goes away. The regime is effective at retaining power. I think the Russian Federation will always covet Crimea and Ukraine. Good planning has to assume these things. That is why Ukraine has to be like Israel in some ways: technically advanced, militarily strong, and always alert. And the only healthy way to sustain that is to be a part of a wider defense alliance. Maybe that is NATO. Maybe that is an alliance with Poland and the smaller group of nations that has a border with Russia.
Considering that this is pretty much the area where Russia enjoys(/enjoyed?) its greatest advantages, the near total lack of effectiveness it provided them is, IMHO, one of the clearest indications of how badly they're really doing.
I suspect that Russian aircraft are in more danger of being killed by their own side than by the enemy. The majority of Russian aircraft losses in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and even now in Ukraine were/are not due to enemy fire but friendly fire. The Russians KEEP unintentionally shooting down their own planes, even 30 years after the Chechen Wars.
@@jamielondon6436 bro my point is if Russians are so weak and are using outdated equipment etc Ukrainians are not able to push them out of their territory already? It's been half a year since the last successful counter attack
This has been just about the best video I've seen on the topic, judging by concise, precise, factual information as well as cautious and weighed conclusions. Darn good job Perun!
For reference, the state of Wisconsin has almost as many midair tankers as the entirety of Russia, and within the next year, will have more stealth aircraft than them aswell.
Is there a local minority of Wisconsinians living somewhere near Moscow in need to be liberated? (Bad jokes aside, I'm expecting someone to do to Russia what Russia has been doing to others, sooner than later).
A brilliant piece of work by an extremely accomplished presenter. For those unaware, RUSI research analysts often give publicly broadcast evidence to the British government defence subcommittee which is almost always worth the time, especially if Justin Bronk is involved although all RUSI folk really seem to know their stuff. The months of effort are quite evident.
Using RUSI as a source on the Air war in ukraine is like using Fox or CNN as a source of reliable info...as a fleet pilot has put it RUSI is terribly of the mark.
I am grateful for the honorable mention of the F/A-18. Sometimes we seem to get tunnel vision, and while the F/A-18 isn't in as widespread use as the F-16 series of aircraft, there are still quite a few of them in circulation in the US and among its allies.
Nominally, Perun, even as a USAF veteran I would entirely agree with you that the platform doesn't matter for it's characteristics and comparisons... But maintenance capacity as well as spare parts availability DO matter IMO. Gripens would be the best option for field use as they are tolerant for runway length in a way many others aren't but also have a low flying hour cost which usually translates to "requires less intense maintenance per flight hour"... But the Gripen isn't that widely fielded and most nations don't have mountains of spares for the parts that do break for them so they'd be reliant likely on new production parts coming out of Sweden. The F16 is a less capable aircraft in 2023 than the Gripen is, but it's also one of the most widely exported modern aircraft and most nations could provide both maintenance support AND parts support as well as more aircraft in the future with almost no extra work. As you mentioned, it's unlikely they would send something as critical as the meteor as they're not that widely available still and the tech is sensitive... So arguing which plane to send based on the meteor compatibility seems pointless when it's probably not the ordnance that will go either way.
A few Gripen now, then as many Vipers as practically doable. I'm also curious what the upgraded and datalinked MiGs may be able to accomplish. For as many as Poland has to send.
Ukraine has shown it's able to field multiple platforms at once, so nothing in stopping them from having a dozen or two of gripen, and having the more easily available F16 to fill any other less intensive roles.
![[Full Episode] The Restaurant War Thailand ศึกพ่อค้าซ่าแม่ค้าแซ่บ Episode 2 | 29 ก.ย. 67](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/r3lfLNH6Ke4/mqdefault.jpg)
Sponsored by Private Internet Access, Use the following link to access their promotional offer: www.piavpn.com/Perun
After the delay last week - we're back to a regular schedule this week. This video is the result of a recent poll I put up asking people to vote for their topics of choice. Thanks to those of you who vote (on Patreon and here).
One final observation I'd add here, to my other points around the serious threat posed by the VKS even now:
What the VKS has accomplished in ground attack, SEAD/DEAD, and other missions reflects a failure to invest in all elements of capability building. Having expensive modern jets in large quantities - but not enough guided munitions for them to drop (forcing them to use dumb bombs) or not investing in tankers and training should be examined and assessed as a potential failure of budget prioritisation and force design.
Combat aircraft are expensive platforms, and while there is obviously utility in having large numbers of them - planners may assess that it is preferable to invest in all inputs required to support a given capability (including supports), even if that means sacrificing fighter platform counts or other investment priorities. That observation is not definitive - but rather a point for consideration for policy makers considering future investment decisions.
I really appreciate the transparency around being realistic about your expectations about VPN services, it might also help to disclaim that certain countries hold different laws about what information VPN companies are obliged to hand over to the government, such as India. This might be a further clarification in your next sponsorship.
Lastly I would like to say that your videos are the most objective, nuanced presentations on a modern confrontation I have seen, My feedback is a small point not meant to criticise but to compliement. I wish that even a small percentage of the content on military confrontations had the thought and work put into it that yours does, the world would be a better place even if only one other channel matched this. It provokes a lot more critical thinking than other..... lets say.... animation based..... hype training one sided "ïnfo graphic" channels
Also, take breaks, I've seen to many channel creators burnout because they think if they take a break they will lose people or let people down. Look at Robbaz, he moved to twitch years ago but millions of people still sub to his channel waiting for any rare video.
Welcome for cooperation!
'feet'? it is not the dark ages anymore, use standard units of measurement please.
its funny how you included Krasinez soviet car museum at 2:47
When Perun puts more effort into his PowerPoint videos than the Russians did planning this invasion..
Its a bit hard to be critical with your military planning when the one guy in the room who wants to make it happen only wants to hear 'Yes' from you
Saying no is a bad idea...
Unless you suddenly want a crash course in flying out a window by flapping your arms
Great comment, really made me laugh 😂😂
@@krissteel4074 yeah, but that doesn't mean the high command is otherwise competent
Actually I think the difference is he works in a democratic system serving the population, that obviously also isn’t corrupt. Because however undenyably brilliant Perun is, there are actually quite a few brilliant Russian people as well. But the Russian system just gives very weird results, even when fed with someone comparably brilliant to Perun. That’s the ultimate ”western” superiority!
Ouch! Harsh but fair.
Glad to have assisted with this presentation. Quality stuff as always.
Glad to see quality creators flock together...lots of love 😊🎉
We want a Perun/Lazerpig Roundspa episode! Complete with PowerPoint's and wine!
Where's that Ukraine rant you mentioned in your community tab? I'm really looking forward to it.
GIVE US ROUNDTABLE WITH PERUN.
@animarchy As is yours thanks for helping!
That "Aliens" reference was smooth as warm butter.
Also, the Swedish Gripen has long been *the* most interesting fighter jet out there, to me at least. Swedish engineering is very impressive. I remember hearing about a story, maybe here, not sure, how Sweden used to send fighters after the USAF high altitude spy-planes that crossed into their airspace, but it was understood as both countries having low-key agreed that they take that as an occasion to train their pilots against an unknown, but non-lethal enemy that was doing their very best.
Yes, Viggens were able to intercept and escort the SR-71; a few years ago some Swedish pilots received medals when their assistance of a Blackbird in distress was declassified. Google will find some articles.
@@Dafnessific Well, they had a few missile lock on the SR-71. But it's quite impressive anyway.
@@AakeTraak you aren’t exactly the airforce if you don’t have a few dozen missiles pointed at a unknown aircraft
Sweden sent two Saab Viggen to support the spy plane.
Yeah, the Swedish Viggen (predecessor to the Gripen) is the only plane in history to ever achieve a missile lock on the stealthy SR-71, and thus be in a position to shoot it down had the trigger been pressed. In the SR-71s defence, it took no evasive action and always used the same flight path, giving the Swedes plenty of opportunities for rehersals. It was mostly seen as good sport by both sides.
However, in 1987 an SR-71 suffered an engine failure above the baltics. The two Swedish Viggens routinely sent out to intercept it noticed the emergency and decided to escort and protect the crippled plane from incoming Soviet interceptors. The pair of Viggens were relieved by another pair who saw the SR-71 safely out of Swedish territory. All four Swedish pilots were given medals by the US air force once the incident was declassified, 31 years later.
Every time Perun mentions Gripen, a Swede grows wings. True story.
True indeed. I would be very proud if our gvt sent a squadron of Gripens to Ukraine. It's also nice to help ;-)
Intermediate term legacy hornets was probably the right answer. Number of them are in US private hands but still militarized. Enough for 30-40 airframes and would give full access to NATO stand off weapons and FOX-3’s. Additional airframes are in Europe between Finland, Spain, and Switzerland.
This is why the Gripen comes with extra spare baby wings in the front.
Gripen ❤🇸🇪
@@KirkFickert Hornets make sense on paper, and interestingly there was a detachment left in Europe when they rotated home to do dispersed ops validation exercises. On the other hand, two engines is twice as much engine maintenance; and it would probably require direct USN logistics support, which may not be palatable.
"Nato Scissors beats rock stratagy" is my favorite thing from this video.
And "The Swedes make nice aircraft" on the last slide.
An air defence radar that has been damaged, or switched off, is less of a threat to aircraft compared to an air defence radar that is switched on.
Infuriatingly obvious drivel from anyone else, but a chuckleworthy gem from Perun. 😁
NATO tech tree.
If the scissors can't beat the rock, develop better scissors. And then develop them even more to the point where you've got Plasma scissors capable of cutting through steel.
honestly it's probably a good thing Russia isn't peer with NATO because the US MIC would have developed star destroyers by now.
Perun with a dash of Lazerpig, a fine vintage indeed
Update - on May 19, 2023, USA told allies that Ukrainian pilots could be trained on the F-16 and that US would work with other countries to supply Kyiv with the jets.
The failure of the Russian air force is probably the most surprising element of the war, to me. The overwhelming numerical superiority would have seemed to suggest a quick air war followed by sustained air supremacy. It really highlights the systemic problems of the Russian military.
Russia is rather amazing considering they still are in a superior position despite hundreds of billions in $ and military equipment sent to Ukraine. Afghanistan defeated the USA and it's allies with much less.
@@mcmarkmarkson7115 Yeah and now imagine if Afghanistan was located next to the US like Ukraine is to russia. Logistical challenges between US and RU are incomparable.
@@doodoodoometal No need, compared to Russia, USA despite already putting more money into their military, also had lots of support in Afghanistan from other nations.
While Russia gets very little support from other nations.
@@mcmarkmarkson7115 The Taliban was crushed in a few weeks and was forced to retreat to caves and fight a guerilla war. And the Us waged this war thousands of miles away from home. Your comparrison is flawed, look at the 1991 Gulf War instead. The Russian military could probably not rob a gas station thousands of miles away from home. They are uttelry pathetic considering they were supposed to rival Nato
@@mcmarkmarkson7115 They are amazing for how quickly they fucked up their entire country with a "3 day operation to prevent NATO expansion " lol
The highlight of my week. It's to the point now where my girlfriend asks me every Sunday "how was your weekly ukraine power point?"
And you answer " very good, but now I am hard, come here"
@@outerik90 or you could answer like a normal person instead delivering a line worthy of a bad 90's porn actor. Are you twelve?
@@outerik90 That's the type of blunt response I would expect you to give, Rogal Dorn.
@@airplanemaniacgaming7877 guardsmen need to come from somewhere.
My girlfriend has found out I watch perun too. She’s starting to listen with me too when I’m at my desk
This was such a well-built presentation! As a former ground crew mechanic in the Israeli Air Force I recognize so many of the challenges you mentioned and that most people tend to miss altogether.
Always insightful and well executed. Keep up the good work.
Because civilians can't understand that behind every shiny aircraft, there are hundreds of technicians keeping that thing in the air. Ukraine will win this war because the West is king in logistics and has the better more professional training regimes.
@@Loki1191 We can only hope and perhaps if the fence sitters of the "free world" decide to help Ukraine with anti-air craft or other military assistance.
Freaking ace combat often brings up that poor maintenance kills.
The war between the Ukrainian Air Force and the Russians really feels like something out of Ace Combat to me.
A huge combined arms assault to retake Sevastopol (and fighting Russian ground, air and naval forces) would literally be like one of those "liberate the capital" type of missions in Ace Combat
Wow! I always wanted to know that! Today's my lucky day! Thanks! 👍
Just like my video game!
If only Ukrainian jets could carry 200 missiles and 24 precision guided bombs each, lol.
It more closely matches Project Wingman. Knowing how Project Wingman ended....
Fully agree with your assessment of the Gripen. The C/D variants are due to be replaced soon in Swedish service anyways, so to me it would seem reasonable to send half of them to Ukraine as soon as possible. The biggest issue with the Gripen is that spare parts might be a concern, but production can always be ramped up or outsourced.
Instead of sending half, you send all and half become spare parts. Ramping up production of old model parts when you want to fulfill deliveries of new models is just not suitable.
I think the issue with that may be that (most of?) Sweden's new E models aren't brand new airframes, they are meant to be basically resto-mods of the older models...
@@fat_biker The E models are new airframes, but there is also an upgrade package deal on... I think half the current C/D fleet to give them almost the same capabilities as the E variant, with new radars and a bunch of other soft and hardware.
This will not happen unless
1. Sweden is let into NATO
2. NATO allies agree to base fighter aircraft in Sweden, under Swedish command, until capabilities are at same levels as before.
3. The cost is shared.
4. The countries behind meteor (several European nations, including Sweden) must agree on supplying it. This is not an easy decision. Missiles end up in enemy territory, sure they will be destroyed, but some knowledge will be gained by the enemy.
It's not certain Sweden would do it even if these conditions were met, but I'd say it's a minimum.
If NATO, as an organisation (it dosen't matter which specific countries) dosen't want to let us in, well, then there is no point in discussing this.
Remember that this plane is built modularly, and customers are encouraged to replace modules with locally sourced alternatives if they so choose. Operators also have access to the Gripen's source code and technical documentation, so it would be a suitable platform for Ukrainian ad hoc mods :)
45:42 Trust me, we are throwing a lot of harsh language at those MiGs. Unfortunately, this is our only ammunition option at this point, and it doesn't seem to be particularly effective
Nobody, and I mean nobody, does a more thorough analysis than Perun. Well played sir.
Justin Bronk.
He might be NATO's most valuable player.
@@B.D.E. Yes, RUSI get credited in the video in large part, but he also talked to some additional sources. I’ll attend a RUSI seminar in Norway in June, so I’ll be interested to hear if prof. Bronk and his colleagues have any updates since their report.
TH-cam wants Justin Bronk to be more English? Not sure that’s possible.
Well, for us, at least. I would hope the Chairman of the Join Chiefs gets a bit better briefing than we do. But I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if these videos make the rounds...
Yay, this weeks hour long defense economics slide-show!
The most gripping content on YT. I devour every minute of these.
@@Bassalicious And enjoy both watch party and second watching.
@@Bassalicious Some of the most Gripen content as well.
I wanted to play my video game but I found it too distracting and I can't focus on the slideshow talkshow. So I've been just watching this :
@@subtlewolf lol, nice
Perun, my already very high esteem for you gone through the roof after the KSP reference 😂 I'm really glad to have found your content since the first video, and it keeps getting better. Thanks and kudos, your work is a masterclass in clarity and how to keeping things interesting for long presentations.
Well said. Agreed.
This one of your best ever videos, you knocked it out of the park mate and you just brought a truckload of clarity and impetus to the Ukrainian aerial arms needs. Thank you!
Agree, some of the last few videos didn't quite capture my attention but this was the best one in a while.
The RWR does signal a medium ranged GBAD 45° right off the nose of the aircraft but this radar contact is just being detected. So depending on where they are flying this really doesn't indicate any danger to the aircraft. In fact the GBAD radar won't even be able to see a return looking at its incoming signal strength. This could even be a friendly radar.
Luckily working out where Russians are, isn't hard
if you're talking about the RWR in the cockpit of that su-25, the specific frame selected was kind of bad compared to the rest of the video. The incoming missile warning starts flashing a couple seconds later, iirc
Ah, a fellow DCS enthusiast 😉
@@wingcommanderbob8268 thanks for the clarification
I was a big plane nut when I was a kid, and I have always liked the Gripen. It's a good looking plane and the rough field operation is something that I always thought was a neat feature.
As perun says the gripen was tailor made for the Ukraine conflict. If European nations could fund the jets it would take the pressure off Sweden. Next difficulty is getting the 36 jets ready. Can enough be gotten through retired, donated a-d model airframes? Build time for new models would Take years but the quicker it begins the quicker they are ready.
@@Statueshop297 pressure off sweeden?
@@Yarkoonian She's referring to the constant threat to Sweden from Russia. Russia tests Sweden's readiness all the time, with constant incursions by air, ships (including landing ships with tanks), submarines and all sorts of shit going on all the time.
The lengths to which they went to ensure designing "maintainable in an improvised hideout in the woods" is incredible. Even simple things like accessibility to panels and stuff without needing special scaffolding or stairs.
@@Darwinist Agree. I hear they even made it so that its possible to work on the Gripen while wearing gloves, a simple thing only it makes a lot of difference when ones planes are outside in the winter and not in a cozy hangar.
Honestly, i hate the fact we are still debating this. It's the same arguments against sending jets we already had with tanks. And artillery. And every other weapon system.
There is a few significant differences that he mentions. Long training times, heavy maintenance burdens and they’re not critical right now.
@@ewanlee6337 Long training times and heavy maintainance burdens were a concern about the tanks aswell. And about the Panzerhaubitze. And about HIMARS. And about PATRIOT. And yet, the Ukrainians have learned how to use all of them, usually in record time, and the vehicles are all still going.
@@Chrischi3TutorialLPs I should have been specific sorry. The issue is the scale. Airplanes are much much harder to train and maintain so even if the Ukraines do exceptionally, it’s still a big deal.
Thinking about it, training could be much faster if it’s just to fly up and fire ultra long range missiles. But maintenance can’t be skimped due to the consequences being much more severe on average on top of just being harder when compared to ground units.
Arguably the biggest hindrance though is that the same cost of ground based stuff is just more worthwhile than planes for Ukraine.
A lot of the ground stuff being sent would otherwise never be used and so the actual cost is just transport, not the listed price.
With the aircraft, the average fighter isn’t critical unlike artillery and such so they’re not particularly worthwhile and the stuff that is worthwhile, the ultra long range missiles and compatible planes, would significantly cut into nato countries actually important equipment unlike the bulk of what they’re already sending.
"Trying to integrate those missiles with Mig29-s would be like trying to make your Windows computer talk to a clay tablet".
I just wanted to write down my favorite quote from this vid. Carry on.
Perun: "The dynamic evolution of combat obstacles in high value environments leads to attritional declines in overall combat capacity"
Also Perun: "you can yeet it" "a bit shit"
A master of language, an artist among us.
Sus
When EXPENSIVE shit gets shot, you don't want to use expensive shit, thus reducing combat capacity for said expensive shit
Out of fear of losing it. @@geopolitiikkajasota4404
Another bonus about the Saab Gripen: You can pick one up at a local IKEA.
You can also land one there
What a flat-pack.?
It's not the full-size one though.
And it's a 16988 pieces puzzle to assemble, which require a machine shop and some pretty specialized tools.
From what people who have bought it say, the engine is the hardest to assemble and mount.
With one tool required to assemble it.
@@wieslawmaciag2142 Furniture that is shipped in a literally flat package that can be assembled into tables, chairs, shelves, etc. IKEA realized a long time ago that shipping costs were a significant component of shipping, storage, and delivery. It was also easier for customers to buy furniture and carry them home. Carry a 6 foot tall cabinet is hard. I can fit a flatpack in my Prius.
thank you for displaying rational and in-depth knowledge. you are doing a huge service to educate people as well as further interest in logistics. thanks for helping promote this type of community that fosters intelligent analysis of these topics.
I'm sure that's accurate, but did you speed listen in 3 minutes.
@@flowerpower8722 anything's possible 🤣😂
@@flowerpower8722 it's praise of the channel and its impact as a whole.
@@flowerpower8722 dont see where he makes any statement about the video, hes only complimenting the channel.
@@rickastleysrevenge3258 He changed the wording - all good.
Thanks again Perun for enriching my understanding of this war. It's still a horrible, regrettable business but understanding more helps me handle it better. Thanks for sharing your knowledge with the rest of us. I hope the Ukrainians and their Western supporters are reading you too- and taking heed.
Wars are terrible, the quickest way to end them is kill all your enemies quickly, with outmost violence, then go home, it's horrible
Ukraine's western "supporters" are its prime killers.
Just a note about BVR not making an exciting movie- I think actually it *could* but you would absolutely *have* to tell it like those small handfuls of truly surpassing sub movies that work off of suspense and character building. You do actually get intense bursts of genuine exiting action mixed right in with the suspense, and it *can* even break out into full on action- a successful missile defence from long range with all pilots defending dropping from high to low altitude while closing distance is not *that* unlikely from a movie standpoint, and then you are into that awkward 'close-mid' range where a real dogfight (albeit a missile based one) can play out. If you really wanted to go the extra mile you could have that happen only once as the movie's climax with the rest of the times ending in turning away from the opponent and not taking the engagement (pretty common) or nail biting suspense with relief as a radar blip disappears from the screen and your own aircraft *seems* to be intact. Because *movie* there is also no reason why they can't follow the weapons/planes and get very fancy with the camera work. I think it'd be pretty cool to see (but who am I kidding, it would absolutely not be popular hah)
It sounds like something spread over a few pages of a Tom Clancy novel
that I used to be fascinated by as a kid
Imagine a political thriller. Two bordering countries, say, India and Pakistan, are on a knife's edge of "will they invade?" in the opening act.
The film follows a couple characters, like politicians and high ranking military officers, and also a few combat pilots. If you establish early on that both sides have nukes, you could have extremely tense scenes. Imagine you have an entire "war room" waiting with bated breath, cutting between that and the cockpit where the pilots of each side are playing high speed aerial chicken over the border. The camera slowly zooms in on the radar display, with the green enemy dot refusing to turn away despite radio hailing. The soundtrack cuts away, and all you can see and hear are the sounds of the jet, and the chirping of the electronics. If that dot doesn't turn back, it could mean the end of civilization in nuclear hellfire.
I think you could *totally* make BVR tense, it'd just take the right setup.
Just watch Growling Sidewinders or Longshots DCS vids... Especially their BVR videos..
Not many explosions but VERY exciting.
(Personal favorite was GS taking an F-18 against an F-14. Both with their standard AA loadouts)
Essentially... not action but horror. Kind of like Alien.
You know missiles are there... but you will not see them, unless it is way way too late to do anything anymore.
Strike missions in the modern era are way cooler than air to air, see Flight of the Intruder
"Behind Enemy Lines" with Owen Wilson actually demonstrates this in its opening scenes. It's Ground-to-air and the "defender" of territory were the "bad guys", but the premise is otherwise the same. A "boring" routine reconnaissance mission suddenly becomes very different because a Serbian general is trying to hide a massacre. The missile system is turned off and camouflaged. Only once it's turned on last-second are the pilots aware of its existence. It's actually one of Wilson's best movies, which is a shame in a way because the writing was poor.
As a swede I wish our government would announce a training and procurement start-up program of the JAS-39E for Ukraine. The training course our own air force uses takes nearly 18 months even for people who are already certified pilots, which is just shy of the assembly and testing time of new airframes for the last batch. Doing so would put Putin on a timer, making a clear statement that unless the war ends before then the Gryphons _will_ show up eventually. It also saves us from having to promise to give up any of our own air crafts, as such an announcement can easily be phrased as only promising to provide the training and authorizing the export of them, and leaving the part of actually providing any aircraft to when the war is hopefully over and Ukraine can pay for them.
On the subject of the Meteor missile, we also have our own domestic version of it that exists more or less _only_ because our military has a domestic replicability requirement, which has a slightly different seeker head and electronics to the NATO-adopted Meteor - sending those wouldn't risk the capture and analysis of any NATO-adopted Meteor systems, since our knock-off is built on different systems* and are designed to explode once armed even if it misses or deactivates, while still providing a substitute that is supposed to be good enough for fighting an asymmetric air war.
EDIT: I also grew up right next to where the JAS-39Es are built and tested so I have a bit of an innate interest and respect for them, so yeah I'm probably a bit biased in promoting them which is why I'm glad that the argument isn't about the specifications VS other airframes, only the jobs it can do.
*Of course, I don't have access to the design schematics or software of either variant so for all I know they could be identical down to the atom, but they are supposedly built on different systems.
If Sweden ever wanted an export market for its Gripens, this would be an ideal showcase, and surely Ukraine will build the backbone of their future airforce once they got a taster:}
@@jong-wonlee4554 I stated the very same comment elsewhere!
Great comment and yes that is what should happen, Ukraine should buy the Gripen E (along with cheaper used F16's to build up the numbers).
As a brazilian I wish my government would purchase 120 additional JAS-39
@@jong-wonlee4554 the only problem with showcasing a plane in a real war where you dont have air supremacy is that some of these planes will inevitably be shot down.. (even if you went 2000 UA planes against 1000 RU planes)
while the US planes (going 2000 against 50 or so) will still claim "superior kill to death ratios"...
I feel like NATO and EU members have been slow to see this war as a Russian gift to take advantage of. For various reasons, some of our own making, Russia was not integrated into the EU in the 1990s, and eventually, Putin built the Russia we have today. Russia has lurked as a threat to the EU since Soviet times, but there was never a way to eliminate it militarily without a nuclear war. The invasion of Ukraine has given NATO a way to do that without a significant threat of nuclear war, despite the hyperbolic threats from some Russian officials. It also gives NATO a way to rebuild Ukraine's military in a way that's compatible in the future. All that hardware that was built to defend Europe against a Soviet invasion and was eventually going to be scrapped or sold to developing countries is now finally doing what it was built for, but instead of defending Europe, it's helping Ukraine to retake its territory. As soon as an equilibrium developed last year, Ukrainian pilots should have begun training on NATO jets and those logistics chains should have been developed so that when their Soviet-era jets were finally depleted, they would be able to make a seamless transition. Abrams tanks won't do them any good if they have no aircraft left by the fall. The delay on aircraft was timidity and creates the danger of Ukraine's long-anticipated ground offensive getting bogged down and defeated as it pushes beyond the limits of its own air cover. Ukraine must make tangible progress or the fickle voters of highly-indebted republics won't want to commit any new resources. The US presidential campaign really starts to kick in later this year and if American voters don't see the lines on the map moving eastward, they will ask how long we intend to keep throwing money at this. After all, our finances aren't so great and our real potential problem is in the western Pacific. It might be hard to convince voters that a defeated and potentially collapsed Russian regime saves the US and EU a lot of money in the long run and greatly decreases the possibility of a war in the Taiwan Strait. If Russia is out of commission, China is alone. Cheaping out now would be a mistake.
As I was watching another of your great video's (as usual )you stated the Saab JAS 39 Gripen would be a good plane for Ukraine. So now I can say Perun agrees with me great minds think alike.
Ha. My husband had to explain Gripens to me 4 months ago and all I got out of it was “short bad runway is good. “ I sure hope smart people in the west want Ukraine to win before the Donbas is turned into a giant bbq pit.
You've outdone yourself. This is why we come here. Poignant insights into what it actually takes to get things done. Backed up by hard research, with a bird's eye view of the strategic reality. Heartfelt thanks. Much appreciated!
don't forget it's so incredibly Western-biased and is basically the equivalent of studying WW2 by reading Nazi newspaper columns and thinking Nazis are winning
@@brotpros2306 LOL, How many square meters did Russkiy Mir advance in their great winter offensive?
@@davest6044 who said there was a winter offensive? Oh wait the same Western sources. You're spoonfed the most obvious propaganda and act enlightened lmao
@Brot Pros Glad you weren't in one of the hundreds of lost vehicles, or weren't one of the thousands of conscripts and skilled fighters wasted in the cold. Stay warm and safe : ) Cheers
@@davest6044 Are you talking about the Ukrainian losses or the Russian ones? Either way yeah I'm glad I'm not fighting in a pointless war.
I think a 50% availability rate is very generous for Russia’s air force. I suspect it’s more like 25-40% that are combat capable, with up to a third that could probably never fly again because they have been raided for parts. The 50% number probably includes any Russian aircraft that can start its engines and get off the ground. When you look at availability numbers for NATO air forces, an aircraft is listed as unavailable in peacetime if basically anything at all is wrong with it. But the majority of them can still fly and fight. Many of those NATO aircraft listed as “unavailable” would be very available in wartime.
Finally a professional that also loves the Gripen ….I don't know why _but I just like that aircraft_ because it's an example of very clever design that took into account what real world conditions would be like in a war, and not the idealised 'perfect' conditions that many experts design around.
[It's like liking a practical car with a lot of clever configurations that's well thought out]
And because of its low running cost in peacetime it allows pilots to get a lot of flight hours for little expense.
It would have been the perfect aircraft for Ukraine to shop for back in 2014-2016.
As a Swedish tax-payer, I would love to see (at least) half of our fleet *_lended_* to the Ukrainians. The won experiences (and the won goodwill) would be considerable, on top of Russia constituting the one and only military threat to the nation. Everything that weakenes Russia's military strength is good for her neighbors.
Like everyone else from my Cold War generation, I was conscripted. My younger friends, similarly conscripted, trained to maintain Gripen, assert the aircraft in Ukraine would fit hand in glove.
Even if all of the aircrafts were lost, which I doubt, it would still offer invaluable experiences.
@@jmolofsson I am sure someone in Saab head offices is salivating just at the chance that they could get some real combat data against Russian forces. That alone could be worth a lot.
Look out for Bronk’s analyses
@@jmolofsson as a fellow Swede, I can only concur. There are also 12 aircraft in Hungary to be reclaimed if they insist on keeping Sweden out of NATO.
Rb 15 would be highly useful to lessen the Russian missile attacks from the Black sea.
Saab’s jets have always been amazing, and ahead of the pack. The Drakken, the Viggen and now the Gripen.
As a child, it was Saturday morning cartoons. As a middle-aged man, it's Sunday morning Perun.
Same here, but not quite middle-aged woman, LOL.
It's a bit sad when you mentioned Sunday morning though. There goes half the weekend as always...
@Ram Vincent Paul Victor my apologies
Thank you for this video. Very informative. 👍🏻
Many thanks Anders, I likewise always appreciate your content.
One correction: The KEPD 350 is a German-Swedish joint venture. Spain just bought it, as did South Korea.
Another consideration is that apparently the export version of Storm Shadow only has half the range, so it would be crucial to know whether the UK would hand out the regular version to Ukraine, or the export version.
*Russia will go bankrupt again! Remember it took Ronald Reagan 6 years to break them down. Also remember what killed Russia's economy by 1991, it was that fact the USA and her allies decided to have a massive ARMS BUILDUP. With the USA, UK, Germany, Poland, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan and in the case of Japan even tripling their weapons budget Russia is facing the largest Deja Vu in their history!*
The UK only has 1 Storm Shadow variant in stock.
It's also out of production...it would take a lot of money to restart production as all the focus has been on the Storm Shadow MLU and FCASW.
StormShadow has always underplayed its actual range. It’s longer than numbers put out there. From around 2003 There were roughly 1000 bought by the U.K, some have been used.
The kepd350, storm shadow, Apache missiles all share alot of components.
The storm shadow I think could be programmed on the ground so could probably be launched from any aircraft that can carry it. Obviously a bit risky without proper testing but it’s a war so needs must.
@@Statueshop297 There were around 850 left in UK service, but only c400 were MLU'd. It's not clear what happened to the rest. The French were also, pre-war, reducing their holdings to 100 from 400.
There's just so much honesty, competence and quality research oozing from these videos. Thank you massively for the work you put in to enlighten us mere mortals, Perun!
Honesty!!? Dude keeps showing that Russian military is so bad and now I hear news that Ukraine is about to surrender. This guy gets his information from Ukrainian and British intelligence it seems.
honesty? how can you get that from yhis when their is no evidence to correspond? from him or the Russians..no substantial evidence that is...i
as usual, he leaves out juicy details either through ignorance or will, and its hilarious to me
@@maeton-gaming can you provide examples and sources?
@@IwieIch123 love the low key “put up or shut up”
I'm was amused hearing the line "gravity effects everybody equally" because I recently had the frustrating experience of dealing with members of the USAF insisting that they were calculating a center of gravity correctly despite their technique resulting in errors. Apparently gravity effects everybody else equally but if you spend as much as the USAF you get a little bit of wiggle room.
US campaign 'shock & awe' Russia campaign 'shock and miss' LOL
What do you mean? According to Russian MoD the ehole Ukrainian Air Force has been wiped out 5 times already 🙃
"Shock & Disappointment"
been waiting for this one
Your presentation alone, never disappoints. Excellent, well made video. We live in a hell of a time to be able to produce such informative content
Hey perun, great video. One small correction: the missiles shown on the belly of that MiG-31 at about 32:00 are R-33s (AA-9) not R-37s. You can tell as the rear fins have a straight leading edge and a forward-swept trailing edge rather than the swept leading edge and straight trailing edge that R-37 has, plus the strakes extend further towards the tail fins.
Even though, as an amateur historian And ex infantry NCO, i Have always had an inherited interest in militaries And their organisation i Have never felt interested in Power points about The subject. You, on The other hand, Have got me completely hooked. You bring in (at least to our knowledge) unbiased context, knowledge And information And present it in a deeply enjoyable format. Very well done, all of these videos!
Same, thanks for posting. This was a very well done presentation and analysis.
@@frankyb702 What's wrong about being gay for Perun? I'm straight as an arrow yet gay for Perun.
Unless being gay is still being frowned down upon in Russia or something...
As always, simply the best analysis of any that I've seen on this war. I've learned a lot from these videos since Feb '22 and this one is no exception. My only hope is that this horror will end and we don't need to keep watching them for much longer. We should send Ukraine everything that it needs to end the war now.
This is one of the places I am particularly thankful for Putin’s incompetence
Look around: There's no valid argument validating the charge of "Russian incompetence."
You listen to propaganda, because you don't know that information has to be validated with a valid argument. Google, "Appeal to Authority Fallacy." Something isn't true because someone says so, no matter how impressive their credentials. You only believe what you're told, if you don't know this.
Lol! Criticism without content...
I shall now do the same thing...Jared knows nothing about air warfare than video games.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
@@stevewhite3424 Just look at how the US achieved air supremacy in Iraq and compare it to Russia's inability to gain air superiority in Ukraine, and it will be obvious that Russia is doing something wrong.
@@stevewhite3424 your English is pretty good, but not enough to pass for a native speaker. At least you tried. I award five ruble and half potato bonus.
@@thefisherking78 hey, you don't look like a desert mouse from the planet Arakis.
I would say that Russia not achieving air dominance in the early stage of the war is the most defining aspect of the war to date. I think the battle for Kiev would have been totally different if air superiority had been achieved. There's a reason the US spends so much and relies so heavily on the AF, he who owns the skies also will own the ground.
I will be curious to see how the American doctrine re close air support will be implemented in a combined arms maneuver attack as we are all anticipating to occur this spring. I suspect that there will be some clever use of drones , himars , artillery , harms and ultimately jdams in a coordinated way with armor and coordinated infantry on the ground to stage breakthrough and flanking maneuvers . If this can occur without extensive fighter assistance other than to deliver the jdams in a already briefly neutralized air defense environment then this may rewrite certain doctrine and create a review of capacity enhancements using remote manned systems and real-time integrated maneuver data with a data cloud so big that for the first time one may begin to shine a bit of light through the fog of war. It will make military history one way or the other. To me it would seem that the real time provision of granular data is NATO’s biggest trump card to play and it will be interesting to see if capability demands can be met with systems that have not been previously used in this way and without revealing the capacities of the real top shelf equipment. ( looking at you here Xi )
That’s owed almost entirely to the massive legacy soviet air defense Ukraine inherited. The air forces (especially of Ukraine) played a fairly insignificant role in this conflict so far. If you want proof of that, just look at the absence of any large scale Russian air campaign even as UA planes are reduced to conducting about 5 air patrols a day, well inside Ukrainian territory.
@@nihluxler1890 NATO pilots had problems taking out low flying planes here in Serbia that droped bombs on rebels few times. US pilot even mentioned it. Avax radar did not detect 2 mig 29 planes, as they went into Bosnia in 1999. Avax also did not detect SA-6 radar in Bosnia in 1994, that hit a NATO plane.There are other examples of issues and pilots being anoyed by being targeted by SAMs which cancelled some of their missions. Things can go wrong in a war. Large military airport in my town was still being used even after it was targeted by tomahawk misiles. Another airport ''Ponikve'' was hit by over 200 missiles. Now imagine what a nightmare it is to take out military infrastructure in such a large country like Ukraine and for Russia to do it with their limited number of misiles, training.. also in areas of combat Ukranian units were small, mobile, hard to detect.
Even as a Swede I don't think the Gripen is the best jet out there. (F-35, here's your crown) But you make an excellent point. It was purpose built for this kind of war. It would be incredibly interesting to see it in actual combat. I really hope we send some. Hopefully sooner rather than later.
This is the prefect time b to send it to Ukraine then.
If they'll be replaced by F-35s, might as well have them working
For this actual theater they might even be better than the f35. And I'm no hater - I've come to see the advantages of Amy through the fog of uninformed crticism. But the combination of Gripen's ability to operate from roads and fire the meteor, plus it's relatively high performance gives it an edge over all f35 version save from maybe f35B which could leverage the STOVL capability but doesn't have equally long range fox3. I believe a squadron or two of Gripens could really clean up in Ukraine. Get some combat notoriety. That would help a great deal with foreign sales...
The Gripen is definitely the best 4th gen fighter short of the F15. But the F15 is a bit like the Abrams. Performance through burning a ridiculous amount of fuel and punching the sound barrier in the face. It's very American. The Gripen would be a lot better if more sales had been found for it, because it could be as cheap as an F16 but more capable as an air to air fighter. In short, the Gripen isn't a bad aircraft, it has more performance than the F16 for half the fuel cost and material cost of an F15 which is just an absolute bruiser. It's the rapier of the skies, and Ukraine would greatly appreciate having some in lieu of F35s.
A Gripen will certainly wipe the floor with any Russian tin can any day of the week.
@@krishamm2605 maybe we'll see 🤔👍
I'll augment this conversation to remind everyone the US has tested the Metior on the f35 for Britain and it works.
PERUN MY BOI. It's still sunday! A quick upload this week huh?
It's an April Fools miracle!
He normally uploads on Sunday for me (could be different for other parts of the world). His last video was just a little late.
@@VanadiumBromide You know that was yesterday for us right?
Sandboxx said the other day that as much as 60% of Russia's downed aircraft came from their ground air defence forces. He also was talking about Russian pilot training v US pilot training.
Love your content, keep it up.
so who came back to watch this again after hearing F-16 will be going to Ukraine
My Sunday morning routine of Defense Economics slideshows. It’s absolutely amazing that a year later I’m still doing this. Every. Sunday. Morning.
As always, great stuff Perun.
POV
Your an American and you just realize that Australians have a different sleep schedule than you.
As Aussies put their pet kangaroos to sleep, I wake up in time for a Perun video.
@@ElTigre12024 australia is a myth perpetuated by big map to sell more maps
@@JM-mh1pp
That would be new Zealand...😅😂
Locals in 3 American states have told me there are Ukrainian pilots training at air bases there and have been for months.
If they are training at 3 bases, they are likely training at more.
The F16 I thought about mainly because of the huge number of them around. I"m irritated at myself for missing the obvious candidate for the ukrainians, the Grippen. When I read the Title of the video I honestly didn"t think I"d be surprised. Well I surely was, I"m extra annoyed at myself since I"ve allways liked the swedisch approach in designing and building aircraft. As allways well done Perun, well done indeed.
Perun dodged the lack of available Grippens. Where would they come from?
Yeah but there are no Gripens to give to Ukraine.
Folks really be spending their Sunday mornings watching PowerPoint like it's high school. Me, peasants, I am "folks".
Much appreciate it, even one of the longest videos, subjectively one of the shortest because of the interesting facts and plain explanation. Very well done Perun, it was worth waiting for. Thank You.
If it weren't for the remote threat of a nuclear conflict, the US military could kick the Russians out of Ukraine without breaking a sweat.
Operation Ukranian Freedom
@@Rice-County I quite like the sound of kicking Russians out of Russia 😁
Pvt Conscriptovich would feel the same that the Iraqi Army in 1991 felt
Great video! Congratulations! While you were talking about the SAAB Gripen I was thinking about Brasil. The Gripen planes produced under licence in Brasil and with brasilian owned technology integrated cost about 125M USD per plane. Maybe the price tag can be lowered, yet still is a significant price. An interesting option would be the South Africa AF´s Gripens excedents, which have been grounded for several years waiting to be sold.
Another option could be 2nd hand EF2000 or F16 planes could be an options (specially considering that some countries like Austria have several Gen1 EF2000 with many flight hours to sell).
The thing about the Brazilian and South African Gripens is that I don't think either of those countries are willing to hand any number of them to Ukraine. Both countries have taken neutral stances to the conflict, with South Africa in particular still retaining close ties with Russia.
The South African ones will only be sold if substantial kickbacks are paid to certain personalities. And South Africa is a Russian buddy these days, doing joint military exercises and all that.
@Douger Rohmer yes, I am starting to see various Russian hands behind all of the possible Gripen suppliers. Russian Naval exercises with SA, Sweden having hard time joining Nato, Brazil being indifferent to Ukraine. Does make me think they're quite aware of the risks of someone offering them to Ukraine
@@geopolitix7770 Interesting thought. If the orcs can mess with US elections and Brexit, it's probably quite likely that they can mess with this sort of thing.
@@emilchan5379 Mores the pity !
The more of your videos I watch, the more it dawns on me just how deep and wide NATO's toybox really is. And as I realize that, it's also becoming progressively harder for me to understand why Russia thought it was a good idea to mosey on over to NATO's front yard and take a shit on the lawn.
They did not expect the West's reaction to be so robust !
@@linmal2242 Yeah, I understand some of the reasons; What I don't understand is why they thought it acceptable to risk being wrong.
Indeed. The part with the 3 different long-range, fighter-launched cruise missiles might've had me salivating a tad.
@@linmal2242in 2014, Ukraine basically collapsed. I'm sure Putin was expecting ong them to do so again. However, over the ensuing eight years, they collectively decided they weren't going to do that again, and fought back well enough and long enough to shame the NATO countries into sending them more lethal aid.
I love a good Perun PowerPoint.
Doesn't the psychological trauma of countries factor into who will donate the first Western aircraft?
Poland isn't shoving refugees into every spare nook and cranny and emptying out their stockpiles just because it's the right thing to do. They're doing it because they have long memories and they know they're next.
I hope that 460 Polish T-72 and PT-91 tanks and armoured vehicles, 14 Leopard 2 tanks, 72 self-propelled howitzers KRAB, hundreds of anti aircraft PIORUN missiles, thousands of MSBS GROT and 28 Polish fighter jets sent by Poland to Ukraine will help Ukraine to win this war. Slava Ukraine. Good and friendly neighbourhood and cooperation between Poland and Ukraine in EU and NATO will bring peace and prosperity for all NATO countries.
Try to help bachmut at least lol
26:29 So true! Let’s all take time to remember that even Patriot is a backronym for “Phased Array Tracking Radar to Intercept on Target”. Never underestimate the US government’s love of and *talent* for backronyms. It’s almost a strategic resource in and of itself.
Always good to see things put the right way round. It isn't 'what can this thing do?', it is 'what do I need to get done?'
India does this all the time(14:00) IAF is not that impressed with Russian electronics & gadgets, when we purchased the Su-30 MKI we installed our own flight mission computer over the Russian ones along with some French & Israeli avionics & an Israeli heads up display.
The one factor that was underplayed is that as you lose airframes, you don't usually lose ground support to the same proportion. If you're down to 1/3 of your original fleet, but you still have all the old ground-based infrastructure and human resources, you're very unlikely to overtax or run out of maintenance manpower. (Spare parts is a different matter.) You _might_ run into a problem getting 3× as many mechanics cooking in the same kitchen concurrently without tripping over each other.
Otherwise, this was first rate.
Yay, another fascinating defense strategy video from one of my favorite... Gaming channels? 😂
As a hillbilly myself I thoroughly enjoyed the hillbilly engineering comment. Made my morning actually
Or in Canada we would have said they MacGiver’ed it eh. Bit of a hillbilly myself
The statement that if politics where not a factor sending Western aircraft would undoubtedly shorten the war even to the point of covering the cost of the aircraft left me quite sad and hopeless.
We have consensus in the West. Yet we "let it go on" because some are worried about unnecessarily provoking the Russians, while they flatten cities with artillery as if it was 1916. I don't want to call the massive financial commitment nothing but it does remind me of the saying that doing nothing isn't far from being complicit. Money's not the issue, as Perun shows just a month of resupply outweighs the cost of sending a fair amount of fighters. So what's the point then, we can support attrition and and let a generation die to absorb fire or we can use the same money to send strategically decisive weaponry that would end the war. And forgetting the human catastrophe for a moment, ending the war is in everyone best interest. If ibstead of sending weaponry, we invested Marshall Plan style into the reconstruction of Ukraine that would actually give a return financially. Plenty in the West would get stinking rich off their pennies on the dollar investments. I imagine prime real estate in Kyiv has suffered somewhat of drop in price, that could make those who rebuild the city very rich.
So it's not a question of doing the right thing or any sort of altruism, it's perfectly justifiable by self interest to spare no expense in the swift end of hostilities, be that by providing Gripen, M1 or long range guided artillery. This dicking around while civilians are bombed is not too far from just doing nothing at all.
Another great segment Perun. Long range materiel, tanks, jets and humanitarian aid pronto...God Bless Ukraine! 🇨🇦🇺🇦
No God bless russia
God Bless the Russian Federation
@@ronmka8931 He will not.
@@pavelvasilevich2785 Ditto !
take my word for it, if we drive them out of Crimea, this empire will begin to collapse from the inside, internal cracks will begin in the Russian Federation . Canada thank you for your help.
It is an interesting dilemma. Sounds like the Gripen is the best choice for Ukraine but the biggest issue has always been its numbers - there are not many Gripens to go around and the question is which countries would want to give up their existing stock to Ukraine. F-16 on the other hand has a long production run and a large logistics base to draw from. In that sense, quantity is a quality of its own.
Every single video you release is just a complete delight and a refreshing break from the shoot-from-the-hip ex-general, talking head approach in all paid media.
I never thought I would enjoy watching hour long videos on these kinds of topics but this is so informative, keep up the great work
Remember this... "Fighter Pilots make Movies... Bomber Pilots make History! 😂
Speaking one month in the future and Storm Shadow is blowing up shit.
And remember.....
Giving them the air frames now, gives you a leg up in th post-war defence rebuild. Like printers: give the things away and charge them though the nose for ink.
Missiles, maintenance contracts system integration, pilot training ning. Expanding the user base of your air frames. Having them combat proven...plenty of upsides.
Given the recent movement by Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland towards a joint air defense, do you think this would make delivery of Grippens to Ukraine more likely? Or if Sweden joins NATO later this year as Jens Stoltenberg wanted?
The most significant factor is probably whether Washington/the White House approves of it or not.
Even if outside of NATO, the aircraft has plenty of American components, so no way to sell, lend or give it away without American approval.
I can't thank you enough for all the time and effort that you put into your videos. I am someone who knew nothing about military things before this war, but now at least I feel I have a decent handle on what's going on regarding logistics and equipment. Again, thank you so much!
Ditto. Many thanks.
Purun, you considered the JAS-39, F-16, F/A-18 & Mirage-2000 but not the Super Hornet. The Super Hornet is a very rugged aircraft with lower operating costs than the Legacy Hornets and any other western aircraft save the JAS-39 & F-16. The Super Hornet is newer than most of the other platforms under consideration so it would likely have high readiness rates. The Super Hornet performs a broad range of fighter and attack missions very well. The USN uses the Super Hornet for a number of missions that would be important for the UAF to include: CAS, SEAD, Air Superiority and Air Strike.
The Super Hornet has an advanced Radar/Avionic package and is compatible many NATO weapons. The Super Hornet has one of the lowest radar cross section of any 4th Generation aircraft. Boeing also has plenty of production capacity. The USN could probably get a good deal on an additional batch of the latest Block III Super Hornets and take delivery in short order if we transferred a squadron or two of the Block II airframes to the UAF.
Are there any available somewhere for transfer within a couple of months? Interesting option.
Perun was discussing Hornets generally, as more fit for dispersal than the Viper bc navalized. Were the Super Hornet to be made available I’m sure he’d agree that it’s preferable to the original.
@@theamateuriconoclast, Boeing would likely give the USN a great deal on new Block III aircraft since this would allow them to keep the line running at an efficient pace.
The Block II would not be removed from service until the new aircraft could be delivered so fleet readiness would be a non-issue.
Perun correctly identified that the training of Ukranian airmen should start now, if this were done then wouldn't the aircraft become available at around the time that the first cadre of Ukranian airmen would be finishing training?
@@dougerrohmer, I suspect that the answer is that Super Hornets wouldn't be available in the next few months but it will take longer than a few months to train the Ukrainian Airmen to operate this system.
@@toddbrackett4277 Well, whatever they buy will require airmen training although probably less than the manual says - the Ukrainians being in a war and all. I would think that the F16 has another benefit which is a huge pool of trained maintainers and pilots and I wouldn't be surprised if some kind of a Flying Tigers setup happens.
Can’t believe it, I got excited to see the length of a slideshow is 1 hour and 15min. Well done
same. or that i rushed to the comments to share my excitement with fellow nerds lol
As a swede I would be very happy if we managed to give Ukraine a bunch of fighter planes despite all obstacles.
I love that the Poles are threatening to send their planes anyway, permission or no permission, if it takes too long for the other western countries to do the same. Poland isn’t messing around.
@CMY187 they have first hand experience of the Russians
fellow swede here and i agree as well, it would be great if they could send 20 ish JAS and perhaps other countries can chip in the weapons.
The other Scandinavian countries could chip in and cover for the lost combat power in the Swedish sky. We already have a program in place that could give us the framework to work with. This is doable.
Swedes should focus on stopping the invasion of their own country lmao.
Applause, applause! I have already watched this twice and am looking forward to going thru it piece by piece to fully grasp all of the content. Nuanced technical analysis in this area is rare as hen's teeth and I confess that I must work hard to grasp it all. Thank you for providing content week after week which educates and inspires, I find myself enlightened and compelled to learn more.
idk why i do love to hear that broken perun record thing where he goes in a tangent about the 90's... but i do.
THANK YOU man, your work is invaluable in general and i expect this piece of work to be as well. I can't seem to find the right word, humanitarian seems a bit much but i'm pretty close to qualifying your work as philanthropic or of public service as it's just SO refreshing to have an -if not unbiaised- transparent and reliable comprehensive source on those topics.
It would be lovely if you were to provide the name of just ONE, a measly SINGLE ONE of your unbiased sources. Breathlessly awaiting your rational and well thought out response.
@@stevewhite3424 no need to be a dick
@@stevewhite3424 well breath deep and slow Nlw that you have the answer maybe it will help with that anger bro no need to get confrontational...
Regarding unbiased sources, i'm a scientist, i understand the meaning significance and value of unbiased sources but i'm utterly incapable of analyzing a source to the extent of saying it's unbiased because i am completely out of my depth here, as is 99.99% of the population though they may not recognize it.
So even if there was an unbiased source amongst my watch base, i really couldn't say for sure that it was unbiased as i lack the expertise to analyze in depth.
And more specifically regarding your point though i didn't like how you said it i do agree with the implied message. Perun is the closest i have to an unbiased source, i think.
But that's not BECAUSE he's unbiased. He admits to his biais regularly which is one of the reasons i trust him so much, it's what we do in science, i know that i have a physicists biais, one that is biased torwads simple, elegant "perfect" solutions, but that shit may as well be unicorn biais in regards to it's application on messy dirty insanely intricate human fuck up.
So yeah i'd like to have an unbiased source but until i do and i have a way of verifying it, i'll stick to the perun like model for what a best case source can look like. Doesn't mean i take his words as gospel just that i don't have any better.
The other souces i have, and i have a bunch, are painstakingly tedious to watch for the most part imo. And thats cause of the large to beyond massive bias they have.
Russian sources are easier for me, cause i kind of treat them as some sort of comedy, i do try and admit when they say something true, but when your sources are talking about (cumulative, nobody said that shit in one piece to my knowledge) fighting against "nazi homosexual nato demons" that happened to be led by a jewish (demon? Man?) it's hard to take them seriously.
Pro ukrainian bias on the other hand is much more insidious. It wears a veil of objective fact reporting yet subtlety-or not so subtlety in many cases- twists the narrative to favor the ukrainians though techniques like fact omissions, (de)emphasis on certain info etc.
If you don't know this following channel i highly recommend you go check it out. Warning this is the most outlandish ridiculously pro ukrainian one i know, there's probably worse but i find this already hard to watch. The name is anker news i thing, EVERY video announces THE FINAL DEATH BLOW TO PUTIN HAS BEEN DEALT, and after wiring this caps down i realised it may very well pass as one of their titles lol. Go in for the laugh not the fact
@@alexisjuillard4816 Internet superposter tells me to calm down and then posts twenty seven paragraphs of response. You're lack of self awareness is truly astounding .
OBTW, nice post editing after comments.
Holy shit. That's how you crush someone's little game whilst simultaneously refusing to play it. Bravo.
Providing the Ukrainians with Western aircraft and ordnance is all well and good but what they really need are trained and experienced pilots and ground crews. This will get the aircraft in action as soon as possible, expand their airforce give the Ukrainians a well deserved break. The F-16 is the ideal candidate for this mission. If the Falcon is used this gives the Ukraine access to a huge international talent pool.
Okay so the GRIPEN is the airborne swedish equivalent of the Chally 2. A platform designed specifically to defeat Soviet/Russian design.
Yes. We Americans love our acronyms. HARM is actually subdued as a moniker. My favorite is the ATACMS. Now THAT is some real on-the-nose naming.
ATACMS on the nose, JASSM on the face
@@Dafnessific You'd think the big brains in the pentagon could figure out how to use an "I" as an alternative to the "A". I'd like to think that they tried.
@@busboy262 "interceptor." I'd like to imagine it was tried and wistfully overruled. I guess pronouncing it with a hard J is an option. 'Fox Me.'
@@busboy262 I also like the acronyms some laws have had like PROTECT IP and USAPATRIOT.
Ukraine announced they would allow foreign pilots to fly for Ukrainian military.
Ukrainian pilots have been quietly training in Oklahoma, Missouri and Arizona that we know for certain.
It seems ridiculous to train Ukrainian pilots on f-16s with no f16s in Ukraine and equally ridiculous to invite foreign pilots to fly in Ukraine with no planes for them to fly.
It seems obvious that planes are either on their way or already there. Perhaps different countries will simply send planes complete with pilots.
"AKA the nato scissors beat rock model"
that one caught me off guard nearly sit mmy coffee out lol, idk much about Australians but i do know british american and french humor and you'd definitely qualify for a masters in british dry humor.
Coming from a french and american dude that's pretty much the only compliment i can make involving Britain lol.
Great analysis as usual! Thanks 👍🏾 Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦🔱💪🏾
If Ukraine continues to be an independent nation, it is prudent to consider the Russian threat to be perpetual. Best to get started with training and equipping for every system needed to deal with that threat. Russia will never stop trying to limit the power of the Ukrainian armed forces until the current regime gives way to something radically different.
who's paying the banquet?
For us now the main thing is to win ... The Russians will remember this lesson for centuries! Hello from Ukraine .
PS take my word for it, if we drive them out of Crimea, this empire will begin to collapse from the inside, internal cracks will begin in the Russian Federation
@@malinoisLinda Hello, and Slava Ukraine!
@@malinoisLinda The Russian Federation may have to pull back from Crimea, but I do not think it goes away. The regime is effective at retaining power. I think the Russian Federation will always covet Crimea and Ukraine. Good planning has to assume these things. That is why Ukraine has to be like Israel in some ways: technically advanced, militarily strong, and always alert. And the only healthy way to sustain that is to be a part of a wider defense alliance. Maybe that is NATO. Maybe that is an alliance with Poland and the smaller group of nations that has a border with Russia.
Considering that this is pretty much the area where Russia enjoys(/enjoyed?) its greatest advantages, the near total lack of effectiveness it provided them is, IMHO, one of the clearest indications of how badly they're really doing.
The biggest advantage the Ukrainians have is the Russians
I suspect that Russian aircraft are in more danger of being killed by their own side than by the enemy.
The majority of Russian aircraft losses in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and even now in Ukraine were/are not due to enemy fire but friendly fire.
The Russians KEEP unintentionally shooting down their own planes, even 30 years after the Chechen Wars.
If they are doing so badly why ukies aren't on the red square right now?
@@maybaxer Maybe because they're just defending their home, not invading neighbouring countries?
@@jamielondon6436 bro my point is if Russians are so weak and are using outdated equipment etc Ukrainians are not able to push them out of their territory already? It's been half a year since the last successful counter attack
The idea of Simo Hayha hunting a squad of Mobiks made my day
Now, *that's* a one-way bloodbath!
The smart Russians would get too drunk to report for duty...
This has been just about the best video I've seen on the topic, judging by concise, precise, factual information as well as cautious and weighed conclusions. Darn good job Perun!
never clicked so fast in my life
3000 F-16's of Zelensky when?
I know a NCD oper8r when I see one
"Budgeting is about sacrifice, and all sacrifices have consequence." True also in business and daily life!
For reference, the state of Wisconsin has almost as many midair tankers as the entirety of Russia, and within the next year, will have more stealth aircraft than them aswell.
Is there a local minority of Wisconsinians living somewhere near Moscow in need to be liberated? (Bad jokes aside, I'm expecting someone to do to Russia what Russia has been doing to others, sooner than later).
@@randomnobodovsky3692 we shall liberate the cows to where they belong
Man, another exciting PowerPoint from Perun. Let’s go!
🤡
Excellent topic Perun. In my feed minutes after release, as usual. Hope your weekend was good!
A brilliant piece of work by an extremely accomplished presenter. For those unaware, RUSI research analysts often give publicly broadcast evidence to the British government defence subcommittee which is almost always worth the time, especially if Justin Bronk is involved although all RUSI folk really seem to know their stuff. The months of effort are quite evident.
Using RUSI as a source on the Air war in ukraine is like using Fox or CNN as a source of reliable info...as a fleet pilot has put it RUSI is terribly of the mark.
I highly recommend justin bronk. His analysis are always factual, and not diluted by pro ukrainian sentiment. He is very realistic
I am grateful for the honorable mention of the F/A-18. Sometimes we seem to get tunnel vision, and while the F/A-18 isn't in as widespread use as the F-16 series of aircraft, there are still quite a few of them in circulation in the US and among its allies.
Nominally, Perun, even as a USAF veteran I would entirely agree with you that the platform doesn't matter for it's characteristics and comparisons... But maintenance capacity as well as spare parts availability DO matter IMO. Gripens would be the best option for field use as they are tolerant for runway length in a way many others aren't but also have a low flying hour cost which usually translates to "requires less intense maintenance per flight hour"... But the Gripen isn't that widely fielded and most nations don't have mountains of spares for the parts that do break for them so they'd be reliant likely on new production parts coming out of Sweden. The F16 is a less capable aircraft in 2023 than the Gripen is, but it's also one of the most widely exported modern aircraft and most nations could provide both maintenance support AND parts support as well as more aircraft in the future with almost no extra work.
As you mentioned, it's unlikely they would send something as critical as the meteor as they're not that widely available still and the tech is sensitive... So arguing which plane to send based on the meteor compatibility seems pointless when it's probably not the ordnance that will go either way.
A few Gripen now, then as many Vipers as practically doable. I'm also curious what the upgraded and datalinked MiGs may be able to accomplish. For as many as Poland has to send.
Ukraine has shown it's able to field multiple platforms at once, so nothing in stopping them from having a dozen or two of gripen, and having the more easily available F16 to fill any other less intensive roles.
Why not put 300 f16s in Poland and let ukraine fly them out of polish airbase? Russia can't complain, they do the same stuff out of Belarus