I promise I'm not turning into a Tesla channel ✌ Next video will be a different topic, although I do have one more Tesla video planned after that, teased at the end of this one
If they're doing more interesting stuff than the competition in this space, they deservedly get the attention. No need to apologize to the Tesla haters. Focus on the interesting stuff, no matter who makes it.
it is not the sake of seeking idol status in the tesla art but tesla is in the moment with no doubt THE state of the ART EVbuilder as a global reference over the top, in the near future the small citycar ev scene is heavy dominant in china within chinese producers no matter if they making 200 $ or 2000$,with govermentsubsidies the party rules who survive and who not.... this is not sustainable for Tesla margins on the long run profit whatsoever there is no clue for expansions in china at all no free capitalism
The pandemic, and Ukraine-Russia war, has shown that global supply chains are riskier than previously thought. So we are transitioning to a modified economic globalization. The major democracies (USA, EU, UK, etc) form a large bock, with little risk. Multiple sources of a product are part of de-risking. Instead of concentrating on the lowest cost producer, maybe a legal/business framework can allow pooling the same product from multiple sources and averaging the cost?
Another point worth noting is that most profits in the Lithium supply chain seem to accrue to refineries, not at mining companies. Another reason to invest in refinery instead of mining.
The chart I show around 4:34 claims that most profits accrue to miners, but different people say different things, and I have no way of estimating it myself
my conclusion is >>within the unspoken is the most guaranteed secret to keep on your own, so musk gives a false path to search on competitors and the media spreads all into nonsense. But anyway keep in mind that not only lithium is everywhere --sodium-- is also everywhere and very abundant to refine and make the batteries for the most off their limitations based on lithium so much useable and cheap, there will be no arguing in the next decade against to introduce in every batterydriven device on earth (well maybe not so soon in aircrafts because of their weight)...
Some sources claim that the Tesla refinery will eventually produce 180,000 tonnes of lithium per year. If we use 0.75 kg of lithium per kilowatt/hour of battery storage, that output equals 240 GWh per year. Some sources claim that China's capacity in 2023 was about 1000 GHw of lithium batteries, or about 77% of world capacity. That would put Tesla's eventual output roughly equal to the rest of the world's 2023 capacity. These numbers are sketchy and rapidly changing.
Most results I get are for much less I don't think the site currently under construction will be able to produce anywhere near 180,000 tonnes per year, but if we're talking "eventually", there's no reason why the plant can't expand: they're close to the ocean, next to rail, and the footprint under construction is about 15% of their property
It's not necessarily trying to decouple from China; it's trying to decouple from atoms travelling around the world several times before they make it into a car, which is a problem with the whole car industry. The reason this problem traditionally exists is that for decades transportation has been too cheap; in dollar amounts, that is, not in costs to the environment, of course. Soon, whatever is costly to the environment will also become dollar costly, so the companies that make the extra effort now to lower their environmental impact profile will be rewarded in the future.
I address this in the video: the fundamentals of the argument are good, but it doesn't address why the minerals are aggregating in Texas. They could just as well ship the minerals to China, refine them, make the cells, put the cells into packs, all in China, and just ship the packs to wherever the car gets assembled This would still eliminate the majority of the kilogram-miles in the current supply chain, while also taking maximum advantage of the low cost of China manufacturing, and would almost certainly be cheaper overall, thanks to the same factors that allowed China to become the world's factory. Yet they chose to centralize in Texas
@@SizeMichael Good point; but I think you are answering your own question. So, okay, besides the kilogram-miles, there's also a dependency issue. Tesla is not as vertically integrated as BYD, but it is surely the second-most vertically integrated automaker on Earth, and they continue to try to reduce dependencies as much as it makes sense. So, 70% or 80% of the lithium refining for the whole world is done in China; therefore depending on China for refining is not a good idea. What I'm saying is, the purpose is not to decouple from China, per-se; it is to decouple from single source dependency, as this is dangerous. It's not because it is China; Elon Musk is not anti-China; it could be Australia, if this situation of near monopoly on lithium had been based in Australia. I'm sure Tesla are not happy to be depending on Taiwan only for their NN accelerator chips, either, and I'm sure they'd try to decouple from Taiwan if it were possible; but it just isn't possible, in this case.
I promise I'm not turning into a Tesla channel ✌
Next video will be a different topic, although I do have one more Tesla video planned after that, teased at the end of this one
If they're doing more interesting stuff than the competition in this space, they deservedly get the attention. No need to apologize to the Tesla haters. Focus on the interesting stuff, no matter who makes it.
it is not the sake of seeking idol status in the tesla art but tesla is in the moment with no doubt THE state of the ART EVbuilder as a global reference over the top, in the near future the small citycar ev scene is heavy dominant in china within chinese producers no matter if they making 200 $ or 2000$,with govermentsubsidies the party rules who survive and who not.... this is not sustainable for Tesla margins on the long run profit whatsoever there is no clue for expansions in china at all no free capitalism
The pandemic, and Ukraine-Russia war, has shown that global supply chains are riskier than previously thought. So we are transitioning to a modified economic globalization. The major democracies (USA, EU, UK, etc) form a large bock, with little risk. Multiple sources of a product are part of de-risking. Instead of concentrating on the lowest cost producer, maybe a legal/business framework can allow pooling the same product from multiple sources and averaging the cost?
Just regionalizing as the world decouples, nothing new
Good point. This is the first time I came up with your channel and I like the way you narrate and simplify things. you keep the good job
Just found your channel and this video was fantastic. I hope you get the recognition you deserve. Good job man! 👍🏼
interesting points!
Excellent!
One of very few postings where the author infers from facts to support his theories. Others just scream conclusions or repeat others.
Excellent video, brilliant insight!!!
Ok, this is a pretty good video
Another point worth noting is that most profits in the Lithium supply chain seem to accrue to refineries, not at mining companies. Another reason to invest in refinery instead of mining.
The chart I show around 4:34 claims that most profits accrue to miners, but different people say different things, and I have no way of estimating it myself
my conclusion is >>within the unspoken is the most guaranteed secret to keep on your own, so musk gives a false path to search on competitors and the media spreads all into nonsense. But anyway keep in mind that not only lithium is everywhere --sodium-- is also everywhere and very abundant to refine and make the batteries for the most off their limitations based on lithium so much useable and cheap, there will be no arguing in the next decade against to introduce in every batterydriven device on earth (well maybe not so soon in aircrafts because of their weight)...
Thank you for this
This gave me some things to think about, great work! So much talk about Tesla is just utter garbage or simply repetitive.
Some sources claim that the Tesla refinery will eventually produce 180,000 tonnes of lithium per year. If we use 0.75 kg of lithium per kilowatt/hour of battery storage, that output equals 240 GWh per year. Some sources claim that China's capacity in 2023 was about 1000 GHw of lithium batteries, or about 77% of world capacity. That would put Tesla's eventual output roughly equal to the rest of the world's 2023 capacity. These numbers are sketchy and rapidly changing.
Most results I get are for much less
I don't think the site currently under construction will be able to produce anywhere near 180,000 tonnes per year, but if we're talking "eventually", there's no reason why the plant can't expand: they're close to the ocean, next to rail, and the footprint under construction is about 15% of their property
It's not necessarily trying to decouple from China; it's trying to decouple from atoms travelling around the world several times before they make it into a car, which is a problem with the whole car industry. The reason this problem traditionally exists is that for decades transportation has been too cheap; in dollar amounts, that is, not in costs to the environment, of course. Soon, whatever is costly to the environment will also become dollar costly, so the companies that make the extra effort now to lower their environmental impact profile will be rewarded in the future.
I address this in the video: the fundamentals of the argument are good, but it doesn't address why the minerals are aggregating in Texas. They could just as well ship the minerals to China, refine them, make the cells, put the cells into packs, all in China, and just ship the packs to wherever the car gets assembled
This would still eliminate the majority of the kilogram-miles in the current supply chain, while also taking maximum advantage of the low cost of China manufacturing, and would almost certainly be cheaper overall, thanks to the same factors that allowed China to become the world's factory. Yet they chose to centralize in Texas
@@SizeMichael Good point; but I think you are answering your own question. So, okay, besides the kilogram-miles, there's also a dependency issue. Tesla is not as vertically integrated as BYD, but it is surely the second-most vertically integrated automaker on Earth, and they continue to try to reduce dependencies as much as it makes sense. So, 70% or 80% of the lithium refining for the whole world is done in China; therefore depending on China for refining is not a good idea. What I'm saying is, the purpose is not to decouple from China, per-se; it is to decouple from single source dependency, as this is dangerous. It's not because it is China; Elon Musk is not anti-China; it could be Australia, if this situation of near monopoly on lithium had been based in Australia. I'm sure Tesla are not happy to be depending on Taiwan only for their NN accelerator chips, either, and I'm sure they'd try to decouple from Taiwan if it were possible; but it just isn't possible, in this case.
Elon was never a fool. Do not bet against, you will lose every time.
Localization is a de-risk, redundancy, equity, reproducibility play. Any one is worth some cost premium.
war