วีดีโอ

Without arguing any of your points on efffeciency and the curve, one has to only look to AI data center energy consumption to be reasonably confident that energy consumption will still continue to go up, especially if it becomes cheaper. New tech = more energy. Cheaper energy = more uses for that energy. Many believe that we'll need a combination of advanced fission, fusion, and deep well enhanced geothermal to power all the crazy ideas and tech that humans are, and will, come up with. Great info though on how curves are calculated 😁

ok as a west European I'm clicking this to hopefully finally learn why people in the US and eastern europe have blackouts

This is an excellent presentation! I've just watched a couple of your videos, and a corollary I am seeing is the return of dirt-cheap energy. What an excellent opportunity!

Oil consumption in 1980 was around or less then 70 million barrels per day, now it exceeds 100 million, same for coal, gas .. What energy decline are you talking about? Wind and Solar is expnesive, thats why UK energy cost 5 to 10 times more then China..thats why UK and Germany is Deindustarlising

An interesting calculation, and you're certainly right that efficiency gains are really going to hit the total power use and cause a decline. Well assuming power use doesn't increase in other areas. Though throwing nuclear out is a bit ridiculous I suspect, they're still building new plants after all and it seems unlikely they'll remove any functional nuclear plants any time soon. Once running nuclear power is also after all rather cheap, much of the cost is in building them and that cost is retired when you've already built it. So likely nuclear will remain for quite some time to come, especially in a place like France. Still this does bring up an interesting question. While right now European power isn't that cheap for a variety of reasons, but once the transition is much further along it may well start plummeting. And at very low energy costs perhaps energy usage will start increasing again. For instance there are a number of heavy industries that go best with cheap power, and with changing global situations perhaps Europe would attract some of those back to the continent in such a situation then. Well things to ponder. And I guess things to observe as the years go by.

I think that with the enormous energy that will be consumed by the developing world as their standard of living increases (as they should!), we will not see much of a drop but a period of plateau and then resumed rise.

Clear and concise explanation of why, other things being equal, energy consumption will halve by 2050. In the UK demand for electricity is held back setting the price of renewables by the gas price. This can't go on and once this link to gas is broken then demand will surge (I'd turn my heating up, for one!).

Tesla higher reliability. They should be but they aren’t.

solar is cheap?? haha. if you ignore government subsidising, then yes. But no, nuclear is the cheapest one

So when are the prices finally going to go down to US levels?

AI companies disagree.

I as a petrolhead should say: nobody's taking old cars away and newer cars have been iffy for a while now. If we learn how to preserve the old, then decarbonisation means we get to use the old cars for much longer, so electrification never was bad for us.

"the energy consumption is behind the curve by 30 times but we have hope of increasing it". wtf is even this, why have hope of increasing it? what the fuck

Doesn't solar also have wasted/rejected heat? That is why we need photovoltaic thermal hybrid panels which also use the heat.

the EU is not europe bruh

wow, wage growth - wouldn't that be nice. and all it would take is completely dismantling and rebuilding our socioeconomic system capitalism *requires* a race to the bottom in wages - we've seen it happen to third world workers and first world manufacturing workers for the whole second half of the 20th century. profits will always have to increase, and if they don't increase the economy collapses, and profits will always be in direct conflict with wages. if we ever want to have actual wage growth we need an organized and coordinated labor sector, or we need to deprioritize profit - both of these are political questions, not logistical ones

Tesla low repair cost?😂😂

My question is: what are the "black swan" events that could occur?

Europe did a great job breaking free from Russia's grasp! Now they enjoy wonderfully favorable energy prices, a happy population, and thriving businesses. Keep it up!

Interesting topic and some good points in the coments. One question when you removed the oil consumption from transport I did not see you add a corresponding electric demand for the replacement. You also have to add in waste for storage on the vehicle as well as transmission losses. This later point is worth considering as it is unlikely that 24hr dispatchable power can be generated locally or even nationally in the EU. Also, how do you replace primariary avaiation oil consuption. Currently, no tech for this is mature enough for implementation. However, this was not your point, and I appreciated your primary point.

I find this fascinating, I just wanted to point out that we can increase our energy consumption once we are running renewables. We can do more things. Make life better. Energy will no longer be a limiting factor.

Yeahhh if you ever charged your Tesla on a generator… diesel or otherwise you would realize this guy is full of waste heat. Yes, I actually have charged every version of battery that has been used commercially with a 1 megawatt generator for 12 vehicles at once.

Fascinating, I’ve never wrestled with something I basically agree with. Have you fucked with Nate Hagens “Great Simplification” thesis? Given that there is like a .9 correlation between energy and gdp, you’re basically forecasting massive deflation. A “why buy it now when it will be cheaper tomorrow?” Also what about compute for GenAI? So far corporates as far as the eye can see are unanimously walking away from their net zero pledges.

I found the video interesting. I live in Europe and the EU really strives to use the few resources more efficiently. However, I would highlight an interesting variable here. AI cloud technology. Considering the past 2 years, the energy demand of this branch has increased radically. It is true that there is an example in Finland, where waste heat from a server park is used for central heating.

9:30 They use 5 times less energy... So that means that instead of consuming 100% of the energy, they give you 400% back. That's Amazing! I hate how Americans talk like this, it makes no sense. I hate that it's catching on too. They don't use 5 times less, they use a fifth! "5 times less" is 1-5=-4, not 1/5. Also, it makes it awkward to understand what is meant by "5 times more". If a British person would say that, they mean 1+5=6, or 600%, but if an American person says it, they mean 1*5=5. "5 times" as in "Electric cars get 5 times the fuel efficiency as Gas powered cars!" is how a Brit would say it. or "Gas powered cars get a fifth the fuel efficiency as Gas powered cars!" if you invert it. Remember, 5 times MORE is 5 times on top of the original 1, so 6 times. Therefore 5 times less makes absolutely no sense, because that means that driving an electric car somehow charges it's battery.

NVIDIA: hold my beer

10:50 your certainly there annoyed me the efficiency will be close to 100% but like that resistance heater shown in the video like many loose a little to visible light!

13:45 Why exactly would nuclear not be used in a net-zero future? With the exception of concrete required to build the plant (and if we're counting that - well, by this logic, hydro should be out as well, as dams also take a lot of it), nuclear produces absolutely no CO2 emissions whatsoever. Sure, it might not be renewable per say, but it's still net-zero by its very nature. Even more than biomass because (as some other commenters pointed out) a lot of biomass-powered plants burn Canadian wood, which is mostly old-growth forests. Which means they release carbon into the air, that wasn't there before. That's pretty much coal without the extra step of "wait millions of years for the trees to turn into rock".

Its like how the avg size of CPUs plummeted while average compute increased.

so just so i understood this video right a 1000 MW nuclear plant would only make around 400 MW of eletricity and the rest will just go into the steam that is just sendt out

Great no blackouts, the absolute worst scenario is not likely to happen. Like the grid wasn’t carefully designed with that in mind… Yet, avg electricity cost has doubled since 2020. Things are not sunshine and rainbows in europe, idk what this video is trying to prove.

gross units🤮

3:25 don't they use waste heat from power plants to heat up homes?

I do belive the curve went down because of the efficiency of lighting and other appliances, but i do belive it will go up as more and more places need air conditioning, and the ai power thirst will start

isn't Vaclav Smils limits on growth gonna stop this transition from happening in our lifetimes?

I am in hungary. We do use waste heat of powerplants and factories for heat in half of the year.

Cause none of us will be abke to afford the appliances that use it?

Overall agree with you, but we must keep in mind that one reason of why we are "behind the curve" in energy consumption is industry délocalisation. The energy that we would have otherwise used is now used by other countries (like China) and then we import the final product

My chemistry is rusty and the truth is always more complicated than it appears, so there is probably a good reason, but I don't understand why you need calcium for the dow process. It seems to me the only job of the CaO/CaOH is being basic to precipitate the Mg(OH)2. Why couldn't NaOH do that job. Electrolyze NaCl solution and get NaOH solution and HCl, precipitate MgCl2 with the NaOH, redisolve Mg with the HCl, pour out the rest which will simply be MgCl2-depleted seawater.

All this ignores one problem with renewable energy sources - they don't produce energy consistently. Example that just happened - Germany os turning on all their remaining coal power plants because renewable energy production has plummeted.

A big problem for Ukraine is their Soviet legacy of centralised district heating which provide heating to homes, which I think is crazy particularly as Russia is directly targeting heating plants in winter. It should be a matter of priority for the Ukr govt to begin large scale rollout of home solar. District heating isn't particularly common in Europe and America but I've seen a few examples of data centers beginning to export excess heat to surrounding neighbourhoods for a nominal fee. I get why some might advocate for this but they're a terrible idea if we're talking about energy resiliency and I hope the war in Ukraine will prove to policy makers not to go down that road.

Thanks. I will need to listen at least 3 times to fully understand.

What about A.I. there talking about making micro nuclear powerplants to run these data centers.

Many countries now offer home energy upgrades that pay towards the cost of a heat pump installation. I actually got such an upgrade, along with a home retrofit. The doors, windows, gas boiler and radiators were ripped out and a new heat pump system installed along with nice new triple glazing windows and doors. I don't know exactly how much it all cost as the state picked up the full tab but it was something like 10k. I keep the home at 24 degrees 24/7 and my new combined energy bill is just electricity which is cheaper overall.

Germans, creating new words every day ...

You guys keep telling yourself this BS. It's working so far, right? If you get out into the real world for a change you will see that the EU, especially its mainstay, Germany, is on the verge of total collapse. Idiotic Green policies and moronic tariffs are doing the "crushing" you crow about. With the senseless destruction of Nordstram the icing on the mouldy cake. But hey, who cares if the starving people freeze to death, as long as you idiots feel good?

Gas power stations DONT dispalce giga-watts of heat up the stack A large gas power station like the recently built Kedby 2 in England is a 850MWe unit and it dumps 500MW into the environment CCGTs are very efficient

You had me on every single point but completely lost me and many others when it came to nuclear. In the modern day there are NO downsides to nuclear as a green solution and as of right now we should be looking at it as a complementary base load holder to other green solutions instead of a competitor. Just to note, from the readily available isotopes on the surface we have enough thorium and uranium to power us for the next 40,000 years!!! And with the harder to reach uranium disolved in the oceans we have enough for the next 4 billion years!!!! BILLION! That's around the time its going to take for the sun to consume the Earth as a red giant and thats assuming we use nuclear to power absolutely everything, which isnt going to happen. So good video, horrible take on nuclear

Germany alone spent 20 billion in subsidies for this. It's great and all but we're headed into a recession, we'll see how much of this survives.

Read deez