He Predicted Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 and Now… | NYT Opinion
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 ก.ย. 2024
- Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are scheduled to debate on Sept. 10, but the 2024 presidential election is already in the bag - at least according to Allan Lichtman, the American University historian who’s been dubbed the Nostradamus of presidential election predictions for his near-perfect 40-year track record.
Mr. Lichtman was among the few to accurately predict Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 (earning him a Sharpie-scribbled note from the candidate lauding the “GOOD CALL!”). Immediately after the first 2024 presidential debate, between Mr. Trump and President Biden, Mr. Lichtman was also quick to warn that Mr. Biden dropping out of the race could be a “tragic mistake for Democrats,” leading him directly into an online battle with the forecaster Nate Silver. The confidence is rooted in Mr. Lichtman’s simple, history-driven model, which tunes out polls and pollsters and instead focuses on 13 true-or-false questions that he says hold the “keys” to the White House.
So can a model that looks all the way back to the horse and buggy days survive in an unprecedented election year marked by criminal proceedings, an assassination attempt and that Democratic switcheroo? Mr. Lichtman is confident that it can.
And what is his prediction in this unpredictable year? Well, for that, you’ll have to watch the video.
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His prediction is Kamala. I saved you all 7 minutes
He'll only be accurate if the dems cheat again 😪😪
ধন্যবাদ 😂
He said that the Democrats will not win if they replace Biden, so how is he now saying Kamala will win !? 😂😂😂
@@derekhacker9900I been following him for this election cycle, but I must’ve missed where he said that
Pretty much everyone said that though - even like AOC. Remember when they were “Ridin’ with Biden”
@@derekhacker9900 he says that he thought it was a bad move, but also says the democrats saved themselves by uniting behind kamala harris
Predictions don’t work if you don’t VOTE!
This one does, as voter turnout isn't one of the keys.
VOTE PEOPLE! VOTE!
@@grahamfloyd3451sure but as seen in 2000 the race doesn't always go to the rightful winner, good turnout can reduce that possibility.
Yep. The onetime he's been "wrong" was Gore. Vote!
People who want to vote for Harris should realize that she will most likely make things worse than they already are! Like Biden, she's not competent! If another Democrat was running against Trump, then I could see Alan's prediction maybe coming true, but so many people are fed up with the Biden Administration, and Harris is a part of that administration! I realize that Trump's personality is something that a lot of people hate, but when it comes to a better economy and peace, I think Trump would be a better choice! Not only that, but the presidential debate hasn't happened yet! We don't know yet what will happen with that, and neither does Alan Litchman!
Cool. But NOBODY GET COMPLACENT OR LISTEN TO POLLS. VOTE! NOTHING IS GUARANTEED OR ASSURED! VOTE LOCALLY, VOTE FOR PRESIDENT! VOTE!
Vote vote vote !!! 🇺🇲💙🇺🇲💙🇺🇲🎉
Vote senate too!!!
I WILL.. FOR TRUMP
Humans make mistake not God
“All things are possible with God.” Go Trump! 🇺🇸
In 2000 he falsely predicted Al Gore's victory.
weird they didn't mention that😂😂
Al gore won but recount un florida where your brother is in charge gavebthem the win
@@superbleifrei5882 they dont mention it because that election got tampered with.
Lichtman thinks that the Florida recount, if properly gone through, would've led to Al Gore winning. Therefore, under his own beliefs, he's always been right.
he literally couldn't have been closer to winning the election.
Check your Voter Registration and VOTE!!!
Exactly!! And just because the news has not reported " your" town does not mean it is not suseptible to hacks!🎉
Check and VOTE 🗳 😉 👍 sincere thanks, Miss Rebecca❤
I second this! This guy’s analysis is pure speculation and polls don’t vote, people do. Vote Blue!! 💙💙
@@Mrchickenwing74 vote blue? I guess you don't think illegal immigrants are getting enough of our money huh
@@sandymarchena3837 What straw-man argument are proposing here? Additionally, yes vote blue! 💙💙 - We cannot have a convicted felon, s3xual abus3r, and man that led the January 6th event in office.
Checking my registration this week and sgsin in Oct. I live in a deep red state in texas that pass bills under the radar
Women: The vote is private. Vote your own interest. He'll never know.
@@briankirksey3128 Dobbs. Women care about Dobbs.
That comment goes both ways ladies 😂
I honestly believe 50% of Republican women will secretly vote for Kamala --- once they get inside the polling booth, their racist husbands can't control them
@@briankirksey3128 shut up Brian, no woman asked your advice.
@@BuddhaAfterDark The overwhelming majority of women are pro-choice.
This guy always gets hate before the elections, yet he almost always ends up being right.
FALSE! HE'S ALWAYS WRONG!
because it's untraditional, feels too easy and somewhat subjective
He ALWAYS ends up being right. That's the whole point
@@mygetawayart It's not subjective it's judgmental. He's been a history professor for over 50 years, and historians make judgments all the time. These judgments aren't random, they follow very strict and detailed criteria and span through every election since 1860. He has a book where he clearly explains each key in depth and states how each key was answered each year. The way he answers them this year follows the exact guidelines of the dozens of elections before this.
@@joe-d9c You're pretty dumb.
Remember in 2007 and even in the middle of 2008 when financial analysts, economists, and talking heads in the Federal Reserve denied that a financial recession was a real threat and that the economy was actually booming?
High GDP ≠ Good Economy
High GDP = Greedy Corporations
yes. post-covid, corp's learned they could get away with a lot. not to mention massive land purchases by billion-plus valued corporations like blackrock
For anyone with a short attention span he said Kamala’s gonna win
Thanks
@ghost19398 can she win big just what reagan did in 1984?
Nooooooo!!!
Thank you! I was hoping for this very comment! Saved me some time!
😂
wait, every Presidential election for 40 years,
why have all that election expense, just ask this guy
it's used to turn the keys! come on, it's not rocket science!
He got Bush vs Gore wrong in 2000 because he didn’t take popular vote vs electoral vote into account
@@MultiBooster123gore was robbed
@@MultiBooster123Gore would have won the electoral college too, by votes. He didn't take Supreme Court Corruption into account....please educate yourself on Bush v Gore
@@t4cot4ctical 2000 or 2020... a stolen election conspiracy theory is just that. A theory
Dr. Lichtman has said on his podcast that the keys will not work unless the voters show up. VOTE!
😂😂😂😂😂
That man is a Liar liar 🤥
Preach it brother!!!!
She’s down 6 in PA. 😂
@@m1719-p3w exactly lol
This man is so old
I think he’s seeing ghost lol
@@m1719-p3w uh huh, sure bud.
When the NYT chooses the person making the prediction, you know which candidate they'll "predict" before you even watch the video.
He predicted trump in 2016.
@@summit6077 So did millions of other people.
@@TigerPalmer your comment is irrelevant. He predicted trump in 2016, there is no bias like you imply.
Show me where the NYT shared Allan Lichtman’s Trump prediction in 2016. It’s the NYT bias that I was referring to.
@@TigerPalmer He has predicted correctly the last 10 presidential elections, not counting the Bush/Al Gore issue, in which Al Gore won the popular vote but (I cant remember which state) gave all of their votes to Bush with a 0.002 difference thus making Bush president thanks to this ancient and stupid zero-sum indirect democracy system. At least it could be amended as to have the number of delegates be representative of the percentage of votes in a given state....
Dude's 77, looks 57, got the physical energy of a 37-year-old, and the hair of a 17 year old
Im 37 and in fact do run like that
I believe you mean the toupee of a 17 year old.
lol. He definitely doesn’t look like 57. He looks like a fit 75 year old.
So anyone in good physical shape puts on a wig and you think they look 20 years younger? Look at his face not the wig :D
@TomOBedlam-r6t its not rewatch the beginning buds but you won't like a MAGGOT MAGA does
Even though this guy says that Kamala Harris will win the election, you never know until it actually happens. Don't be complacent, and get out and vote for your candidate regardless of what predictions say!
I'm not saying Kamala won't be the next president, but she will not "win" the election the way most of us understand the word "win".
Couldn’t agree more. The vote is the only thing that matters.
He did NOT say she would win. He simply said Kamala would be the next president.
Voting is the way to go! 💙🥥
@@DoubleplusUngoodthinkful Isn't that the same thing? Besides, my point is that when supporters of a certain candidate hear "your favorite candidate will win the race", they may become complacent, and if enough people do that, it might hand over the win to your opponent, especially in a tight race. Never forget Florida back in 2000!
"But the outcome is up to YOU. Get out and VOTE!" Best line in a great segment.
The future is what you make of it, so make it a good one.
Voting is one of the most strongest weapons……anyone who complains about a candidate, and didn’t vote….HAS NO SAY.
2024 💙 btw 🎉
Best line if you mean going from reasoned and rational to emotive and irrational. The outcome is a product of aggregation, it definitely is not up to YOU.
I'm voting Trump personally I don't see why people like Harris lol. She's literally the Vice President and is acting as if she has no power. "We're going to end price gouging!" Like, she's literally the VP. How about she ends price gouging now while she has power?
@@zolten3947VP inherently has no power unless you count senate tie-breaking.
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I think his keys make sense, but some of his answers to those keys seem out of touche to me. He says that the economy is good. Well, on paper perhaps. But he is completely ignoring how much Americans are suffering with inflation. I think people who have a lot of money just don't understand what a driving force this is.
Inflation has been global largely due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, America has had it relatively easy on that one. Sadly y'all don't like a livable wage or social support, so any kind of turbulence will destroy people. Don't forget medical debt and school debt.
@@vez3834 The introduction of a "livable" wage would send inflation into the stratosphere. It would eventually temper out, sure. But when your currency is the world's reserve currency, the rules are different. If the American dollar inflates to a point that countries don't think it makes sense to use it anymore, that will strip America of a large portion of its economic power.
The keys themselves are the problem. Nate Silver has a good discussion of the problems with that model.
biden shutting down oil production was key to how bad the inflation has gotten. Everything moves by truck, boat , planes and trains . Fuel is Americas blood .
inflation is down to 3% thanks to biden. trump started his inflation with covid which he did nothing about. it cost a MILLION peoples lives. all he did was tell people to drink bleach or take horse pills. millions of jobs were lost and in fact...NOW...we have the lowest unemployment numbers ever! he thought he could draw his scripto and move a hurricane or bomb it...!!!!...LMAO... that so called inflation is price gouging from corporations and the 1%. it's called flat ol' GREED! biden put billions into rebuilding bridges, roads, overpasses and maintaining the old stuff we have. it's going right back into america's infrastructure. when trump was in, it went straight into his overseas accounts. what people ought to be worried about is his threats to women and their rights being taken away. minority's should get ready. he is going to let people lose with their AR 15s'. he has already said so... if you don't value your freedoms in this country then go ahead...let him take everything you have...good luck with that!
Guy may be right. But some of the answers to the keys he mentionned are debatable.
You mean the formulation and criteria of the key, or the interpretation of whether it is true or false? In other words, the question/key or the answer?
@@music4meh i think the keys themselves are not bad indicators, but the answers provided for them are questionable.
they've worked with high accuracy for 50 years, why are they debatable?
@@stanislav328 the keys themselves are good indicators. His answers on them relating to this particular election are debatable.
@@pubby I get it. That's fair. Interpreting criteria is a difficult thing. I think it's a problem in both ethics and knowledge that we will never solve. We can have the best rules and laws, but how can we be certain we apply them ''properly''? How can you be certain your method to ascertain certainty is certain, or your ways to find truth are true, or that your means to evaluate righteousness are right?
Exactly that is why conversation is important, so we can approach a consensus, not only on what the answers are, but on how we answer. No one and no answer is fully neutral, so we need many angles and answers to find where the right one lies.
Yeah, as soon as you tried telling me that the economy was doing great, I knew I was being lied to.
The economy is doing great but that doesn’t always translate into good for the average person
@@kate_6436so you’re admitting it’s BS basically. If the real economy only serves special interests and our cultural elites all participate in this gaslighting maybe it’s no surprise populism isn’t declining
@@kate_6436well, the average person votes according how it looks to them, not what statistics say. The gas & grocery prices trump statistics.
@@TwinFlames-xo3oiThe Average person (especially young) doesn't vote. The average voter is older and far along in a career. Young voters who often feel the sting of inflation and housing prices barely vote. Also the original commenter here is very low lQ.
@@hrknesslovesu very true. But, I have a feeling there is going to be a larger young voter turnout than normal, this election.
Many he marked true were 100% false. I believe he is wrong this go around.
I noticed that too, he's being biased this time around.
You people said this four years ago too, and he was still right.
“The first party to retire it’s eighty year old candidate. Is going to be the party that wins the election.” Nikki Haley
Given all that has happened in the past few months, it seems prophetic now.
There are not two parties. There is one. Big joke on the foolish people
trump is closer in family tree to john lackland trump is president
The key says it's bad though
About the only truthful thing that Lying Nikki ever said
@@very5ick112 like, King John Lackland? This isn't England lmao, that's makes no sense 😂
Like polls, these are *predictions* of the election and not the actual outcome. As the professor said, make sure to vote!
His predictions are usually Right
Polls are not predictors but a snap shot which candidates use to adjust their strategy.
I will vote for trump
The actual election results doesn't mean anything when cheating comes into play.
Everyone VOTE!!!!! 💙💙💙💙
bro literally just tried to convince us that RFK dropping out and endorsing trump helps Harris
the kennedy name is strong enough among traditional democrats to vote for him but not to vote republican, even less to vote Trumo. its not a crazy take
@@trivialqed kennedy literally endorsed trump though
I think the key is based on the fact that third party candidates historically tend to pull more votes from incumbents (people voting for change who may not like the opposition party enough to vote for them). In this case, RFK's polling showed him pulling more votes from Trump, but in any case, it was a tiny amount. If it's a factor in either direction, it's a small one.
@@shadowyzephyr it still would've statistically been better for Trump, or rather, worse for Kamala, had Kennedy continued the race. Other commenters explained it perfectly. Science and statistics are weird, you need to think a few steps ahead and acknowledge multiple angles.
@@trivialqed What? Many RFK Jr. supporters are going with Trump
Beautiful piece. VOTE VOTE VOTE. If you agree with him, VOTE. Want to prove him wrong? VOTE.
This time he’s using FALSE DATA
@@harley475 Jesus is coming back. repent and confess Jesus is Lord.
You should vote regardless of whether you agree with him or not.
When I think of patriotism, I don't think of self-righteous billionaires or rambling draft dodgers.
Who biden
Don't forget convicted felon and admitted sexual assaulter who was found guilty of sexual assault. The party of law and order LOLOLOL.
@@ricopaulson1so 😂 Trump's going to be your president
@@ricopaulson1 Who Clinton
Clown
I'll be back here after the election.
count me in, I predicted Trump!
* after you go bowling
@@graveripper69 Its Ok to be wrong...
I’m looking forward to rubbing in Hariss’ win on Xchan and 4chan
le dot
His prediction Wrong this time 2024. .
expecting apology when ur wrong
Quchala maday salanday😂😂
The UK begs you lovely US folks to not make the same mistake we made with the Brexit vote, we were extremely complacent and boy have we paid for that. Lots of love, your Atlantic neighbors x
You mean your superiority complex has not paved the way to a return of the Empire, has not gotten rid of all the "foreigners" asylum seekers taking your jobs and homes. People made homeless and hopeless by your military, protecting the assets of the rich. TAX THE RICH.
I will visit this video again in November
I'll wait.
@@strangeroamer3219. Me too…..we will either cancel each other out or help who we both support…..👍
yeah
For the notification. If TH-cam feels like giving one. 😂
What you can do today don't leave till tomorrow 😊.
Stopped watching when it was saying the economy is doing good. Same lies NYT 🤦♂️
corpo clowns appealing to a populist base. silly
Statistically it’s doing great though? Just cause you ‘feel’ it’s doing poorly doesn’t change the facts that it’s very strong right now
@@I_lovesushi738inflation and debt say otherwise
@@maxashelford4747 yes and? That’s not how you judge the strength of an economy?
@@maxashelford4747 we gained more debt and unemployment and had less gdp under trump
I've seen Dr. Lichtman present his "keys" many times but it was nice to see the human side of him in this interview. Well done.
Seemed to me like the intended audience was 12 to 16-year-olds. I found it odd.
but what was his distance and time? :)
@@cacogenicist I see no reason to confuse enthusiasm with oddity :)
Economic keys for Harris? He must be joking)) According to his system Biden had a better chance of winning. This guy is a big humorist.
No he isn't but go ahead and lie@@RaacingAce
Well, if he's right, America will never recover. May God have mercy on this country.
Sign of the Times!
Biden/Harris Derangement Syndrome
Don’t take what he says at face value and choose to not vote. GO VOTE!!! Your voice matters.
Just Vote and you can look back on this video and say he was right. Not the year to get complacent. VOTE!!!
Also he changed his model after 2000 and 2016.
Vote Red!!! MAGA 2024
@@bevy-1925 Trump 2024
@@user-mx9th2fx8rok bot
Let's not forget that this is just a prediction.
If you want it to come true don't forget to register and vote!
Reminder that Allan Lichtman has accurately predicted the winners of 9 of the last 10 US presidential races,over the course of 40 years. That means there is a 90% chance of Kamala being the next president
Yep! But everyone remember the date of his prediction!
I rather don't want this to be true..
MAGA 2024 let’s vote make sure this one isn’t stolen.
how do i vote im not in the us
Lichtman's record is 10/10. Media doesn't give him credit for Bush v Gore, even though investigations after SCOTUS handed the election to Bush, showed Gore actually won, but the courts screwed him. Lichtman has 100% accuracy.
Yes!!! I agree!!! He was definitely correct about 2000. Not his fault voters were suppressed.
That still means trump can win if he defrauds voters
he predicts pop vote so he got trump wrong
@@Wtahc True but you can prevent this by voting trump
Wtahc... he has never got an election wrong.
God have mercy on the USA if he is correct.
I've read every book, I've listened to him for the last 27yrs and he's never steered me wrong with investments etc... Oh, and YES, he still hates Nate Silver😂😂😂Omgosh their beef will never get old..
trump is closer to john lackland trump gets the presidency
Lichtman has NEVER been wrong but Nate Silver has many times
@@very5ick112 Putin, is that you???
@@very5ick112 Huh??? Can you read your post again and fix the horrible punctuation and explain because I have ZERO idea what you're TRYING to say.
Time will tell and there is a first time for every thing.
He predicts Kamala. Saved you 7 minutes
Thank you so much
He has been wrong before.
Phew, ty
thank God he is wrong this time
@@wiki3065 why do you want him to be wrong?
The only one he got wrong was 2000, and he was technically right
Yup. That was a stolen election. Who verifies results without counting ALL the ballots much less during a recount? So evil!
Not technically right just wrong. By that logic he was technically wrong when trump won because he lost the popular vote. Electoral college is all that matters and it is really hard for republicans to win the popular vote. With maga I think it is probably impossible. His key system predicted wrong once, in one of the closest elections in American history, so still a very impressive guessing record tho.
Unlike 2020 that election was actually stolen
If this is true he were wrong in 2016.
@@AquaCoalaNest Overlooking your bad grammar, what do you mean? He predicted Trump and that's who won.
You were wrong with Al Gore, you'll be wrong again with Harris.
the fact that he was also right with Al Gore until the supreme court stopped the recount in florida
Let’s hope and pray he is wrong!!
🚫Kamala ✅Trump
To be fair, this guy also swore up and down that Biden would not drop out. Literally the day before. Cool video though
I don't think his keys helped him with that prediction lol
He couldn't prdict a second COVID infection would fog Biden's brain more.
That is a lie. He said Biden not dropping out would be better; he never predicted Biden would stay in or leave.
As someone who follows Lichtman closely, I will stress this: before Biden dropped out, he said that he SHOULDN'T drop out, to preserve the key, considering that a number of keys were still undetermined and there was no certainty at all of whether the Dems would unite behind Harris, which would have cost them the primary contest key, and that would have exceeded the number of false keys that Trump needed to win in November. In retrospect, however, the impact of Kamala taking the helm has led to RFK Jr.'s polling dropping tremendously, and a decline in the civil unrest associated with Biden's handling of the Gaza crisis. That's two true keys which the Dems may not have had if Biden stayed. So in short, Biden made a gamble by dropping out, and it worked out in the Democrats' favour, but only serendipitously. Saying the Democratic campaign would have been stronger with Biden still in the race is not the black-and-white variable that it seems; the keys are correlated under different circumstances.
Actually, I watched his livestreams...he thought it was about 50-50 Biden was staying in (after the President caught covid-19), but a day later he was reassured by a personal friend of Joe Biden that the the president was indeed NOT going to withdraw.
Reading the comments definitely tells me that the New York Times is catering to their audience.
oh please 🤣🤣🤣 in 2020 all the comments under Lichtman's video were MAGA babies crying that he predicted Biden to win, and of course their emotions couldn't wash away his facts. this time around a lot of them know not to doubt him, at least not publicly on a TH-cam video where we can come back to laugh at them when Lichtman's prediction comes true once again.
@@Trout811 what does that have to do with my comment about the New York Times catering to their audience?
lol of course, its all rigged. People picked their collective sides, and the media is loosing its collective mind. Normal people are more bothered by why the hot water bill went up lol
@@anos213 if you can't make the connection you are definitely a Trump supporter 🤣🤣🤣
@Trout811 nothing is black and white. Saying that I'm a trump supporter from my comment on the terrible state of the New York Times is asinine. I'm a Democrat who despises the fact that I had no say in the picking of my candidate. Do I think that trump or Harris will be the downfall of the American democracy? No. That ship has already sailed. Call me whatever you want. I'm not voting for any of them.
You heard the man: GET OUT AND VOTE!
Vote for DJT
@@TheFrozenOne97the crybaby who won’t admit when he loses lol
@@phettywappharmaceuticalsll8842 youre gonna cry when trump wins just like u did in 2016! Kamala has a NASALLY voice, she’s not presidential material
@@phettywappharmaceuticalsll8842 Kamala has a nasally voice. She won’t win
@@TheFrozenOne97 why would anyone vote for a felon? that's weird.
Let make him.wrong for the second time by voteing for trump.
Let's NOT. I like living in a country with democracy, not a republican dictatorship.
@@chrisrj9871actually we will be under one very soon if kamala wins.
@@chrisrj9871 you have Trump derangement syndrome.
@@chrisrj9871 Id rather live in a republican country than a democrat dictatorship.
@@chrisrj9871 Dems represent corporations and you'll be voting for a puppet candidate
The key take out from all of this GET OUT THERE & VOTE !!
Not vote for a shoddy ex prosecutor Marxist whack job who had one job (border czar) and failed miserably at it.
No need to. Trump will win.
The president was already chosen for us. I'm baffled by people who are gullible enough to believe in voting and this illusion of choice. The CIA has its hands in every country's election, having overthrown governments and installed their own. Why are the American people so naive as to think the deep state wouldn't meddle in our own elections? The deep state would not risk another Trump presidency. A CIA official has openly admitted to withholding intelligence from Trump. The consensus in government is that Trump is a liability and can't be trusted.
The lighthearted tone of the video absolutely gave it away.
Exactly. Trump is doom and gloom and he would be very frightened doing his prediction
This is clearly an Opinion video . They're not trying to be unbiased
Anyone that's been watching his TH-cam page already knew the keys were leaning towards Kamala. He just didn't make official until now.
I watched his predictions in 2016, 2020 and now in 2024. Gotta give him merit that the bases of his claims and predictions are well structured in a way that several sources are taken at their core and identified in a very simplistic process.
However prediction or not, it's the voting that counts folks. Vote.
@@blueboy3990 he predicted trump in 2016. If he was biased why would he say that?
3:20 Americans can hardly afford groceries BUT *THE ECONOMY IS STRONG* I don't think his model is wrong I think he is just wrong about his "KEYS".
His model is wrong.
There’s nothing wrong with the economy because reports show that people are still spending more than ever! #voteforfreedom
@@teresawalker9196 Yeah… “Spending more than ever”. Not necessarily a good thing. Spending more because cost of living is higher than ever. Also higher credit card debt than ever, highest prices for housing ever, lower savings than ever and highest inflation in 1/2 a century…. “ThE eCoNoMy Is StRoNg”.
My mom used call a fortune teller too. Get out and VOTE!
She's right
It’s been a roller coaster ride for those of us who have been keeping track of the keys and anticipating this prediction for so long! Shout out to Allan and Sam Lichtman for their TH-cam channel!
trump will be the next president it does not go by votes it goes by bloodline trump is closer to john lackland
@13KeysTracker Well said!
Allan will discuss his prediction in more detail on his channel at 6 PM PDT tonight. Be sure to check it out!
Absolutely!
Woohoo! Yeah Ive been waiting for a while now...
Lost me at the Economic keys lol
No 😂 ng! They're not admitting we're in a Recession but we are!
@@KM-zn3lx Source: Trump said so and you don't understand economics.
well didnt the gov falsely reported the job numbers? a clear indicator that the numbers for the economy was manipulated
@@KM-zn3lx we are FAR from a recession. Inflation does not equal recession.
@@VNRG1993 the government does not “report” job numbers… businesses and corporations do and all of their information is completely public.
Okay, he made his prediction. Now everyone get out to the polls and decide your future! Vote 🗳️!
... FOR TRUMP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@@vodkatonic814 Trump for prison 2025
@@kealakennelly1872 Nope, but your commie leaders will be going there!
@@kealakennelly1872 kamala does insider trading she should go to
@@vodkatonic814I'll vote for trump when I see the receipt of Mexico paying for the wall.
He lies about many of the "keys", no scandals? No military blunders? Good economy? Bit please..
He explains them in more detail in other interviews. He states that the *candidate* -- and not any family members-- has not had any *at least somewhat bipartisanly recognized* scandals. He also acknowledges that as far as the economic key is concerned, the real annual GDP was higher than the predicted average under the current administration *and* we are not currently in a recession. As for military blunders, they aren't necessarily a key. If you watch the video in its entirety, he explains that he left the 2 foreign policy keys neutral; however, because Harris already has the other 7 keys, she is predicted to win the election and it doesn't matter whether or not they are both Pro-Trump. Regardless, this is just a prediction. It means nothing if people don't vote, so remember to go out and cast your ballot! 😄
Tacocat im with you. He is a bunch of bunk. Let me go to another channel.
I was Dr. Lichtman's student at AU in the early 90s and have followed him avidly for years. Go Alan!
So, what's your insider opinion? Does he strike you as the integrity type?
@@GTA5Player1 I think so if he watched his career avidly.
Go Trump 2024 make sure to vote for Trump
@@joshkolchins7753 being respectful to someone is a common courtesy
In my opinion it's not model are wrong but the false method instead. Trump was actually considered charismatic, Biden had major military issue, there's sustained social unrest and he also had major scandal.
VOTE not Hope. VOTE, Citizens
Time for Hope again. Time to save Democracy again. Time to make America great again.
I got the assignment!🌊💙💙💙🇺🇸😊
Vote and Hope, 🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙
HOPE AND VOTE 💙💙💙
@@rayerickson7614 we are, we're voting for President Harris. 😅🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲
If Kamala heels up Harris gets in kiss your country goodbye.
Trump wants to be a fascist leader and screw the middle class! Don't be stupid.
Harris Derangement Syndrome.
I have a few problems with his keys. Some of them are wrong.
I don’t think the lack of RFK JR is good for Harris, it benefits Trump more that he dropped out.
Right?
I don’t know! Most of RFK JR’s supporters are independents and many of them don’t identify as MAGA! Just like many of Nikki Haley’s base, they won’t automatically support tRump just because their candidate chose to! Some have indicated that they are undecided.
He would not have been a real factor anyway. He was nowhere near 10% in the polls which would have fallsified the key.
That’s not how that works
RFK Jr. is a non factor. People who were drawn to him were a small minority of anti vaxxers and people who didn't like either candidate. RFK Jr. endorsing Trump is meaningless, and his followers will just look at him as selling out. The fact that he came groveling to Harris first, and she did a hard pass, doesn't help him either.
We will all be done.
She has Tech and The Deep State!
If TrUMP wins 😂
The racist ones, Yes
The US has been done. This election just makes it more obvious. Self-obsessed orange man versus NPC random woman. My prediction, China will control the US shortly.
7:08 7:08 @@mauricem5246
I'm in the UK, and l say to the decent people in America vote like you and you're families lives depend on it 😊😊
@Ray-Ray193 because it does vote Trump
Also watch out for having an opinion over there, how's socialism working out?
@lorraine7669 it's clear to see you're uneducated and not one of the decent people in AMERI(KKK)A. I doubt you even know the meaning of socialism and even more surprised, you can spell it.
@lorraine7669 you're just like trump. You are not making any sense.
@Ray-Ray193 Go get your own house in order first.
Americans are very wise! ❤
They'll choose the right person for their country.
I'll watch!
Immigrants will choose, who are let to vote without citizenship. Camala is stepping in the boots of Putin. He was chosen as a new president in 1999 just like her, behind closed doors, then announced to the people.
I want the key to this guys hair. There's probably a miniature highly advanced civilization living in there.
😂😂😂
Go to any wig shop. It looks like a rug to me.
lol 😂
Predictions, polls, pundits...not of those matter, VOTING DOES!
this is news? we already knew who NYT wants to win.
Except he's on other channels like Fox too
need a tissue?? 😆😆😆
What a shocker. Notice how they said he has ALMOST correctly predicted every election since 1984?
He basically lies on 3 of the points to make Kamala fit.
Why would he lie? He doesn’t want to have a bad record if he’s known for his predictions.
@@thewiseowl8804He’s at the end of his life, nobody knows who the heck he is anyway, and he’s been watching too much mainstream media.
He’s paid, too lol 😂
@@heatblair "He's at the end of his life"
He’s not even in his eighties yet, and he's very healthy and lively for someone his age compared to those who neglect themselves. I don’t see what point you’re making; there’s still no reason to lie.
"nobody knows who he is anyway"
He’s been featured on news outlets multiple times and now he’s been featured on The New York Times. He’s more popular than nearly everyone, but how does his popularity have anything to do with whether or not his prediction is correct?
"He’s been watching too much mainstream media"
He’s basing his prediction on the same factors he’s used since he started.
@@happyfuncrusher He’s paid to lie? To skew the polls? Lol.
To anyone who wants to hear more about the prediction, Professor Lichtman actually has a TH-cam channel with his son. Tonight at 9pm EST, they'll be having their weekly show. I have no doubt it's going to be all about the keys and how each one fell.
Yep, and I set a notification for that one! Hopefully I have enough energy to watch it, as I've come down with covid. 👎🏾
They go on e for far too long, and the son lacks any kind of charisma on camera. That shows drags like you would not believe. Oh well, I'll take the short interviews instead.
Yup...I will be there. Never miss any of his TH-cam live shows
he's fun
@@rockrecordreport7136 its nice to listen to in the background
The fact that he predicted that Trump would win in 2016 was enough for me that seemed impossible I definitely won't EVER pay ANY attention to corporate Media or the polls EVER again.
That's right! Interesting how elections really work.
💙🇺🇲 KAMALA 🇺🇲💙😅
That was a very difficult election. Hillary Clinton did seem like the more likely contender. She also did win the popular vote. So, yes predicting Trump in 2016 was surely a great call.
He didn't call it till the end of September, when it was a tossup. Greg Palast called it in March. I called it in Nov... 2015.
@@workhardt2 popular vote is useless because the demo rats get useless extra votes in New York and California which count for nothing so it’s only the electoral college that matters dude
No complacency! VOTE. 🗳️
Unless you are voting for Harris and then stay home!
Key 1, I agree with Allan's example: Key 2, I agree with Allan's Example; Key 3, I don't agree with Allan's example, because Kamala was not chosen but appointed so therefore is the same as if it was Biden; Key 4, I don't agree with Allan's example because RFK Jr. didn't drop out but joined Trump; Key 5, I don't agree with Allan on his example, because the economy is still resilient based on Trump's Presidency; Key 6, I don't agree with Allan's example because Allan lied about Obama's affect on the economy which was negative, regarding Trump, the longer term economy has been stimulated before Biden's term but no credit is given to Trump. Key 7, I don't agree with Allan's examples as they are deceptive, rather Biden's foreign policies have caused 2 wars that are causing instability in the world especially in the middle east and the debacle resulting from leaving Afghanistan, not to mention the truth coming out that climate change is a myth; Key 8, I absolutely disagree with Allan's example on this one, as Biden and Harrison's co-ed roles in polarizing America has never been as troubling to America's social unrest re: abortion, Palestine, immigration, inflation, lawlessness in GOP states and cities; Key 9, I disagree with Allan's examples since now it is proven that Biden was the 'Big Guy' in China's dealings with Hunter, the corruption of the White House's corruption in falsely prosecuting Trump on criminal charges that are fake; Key 10, I agree with Allan; Key 11, I disagree with Allan's interpretation: Key 12, and Key 13 Foreign Policy Failures and Successes are not rated, but I place these two to Trump's credit.
The resulting assessment of Allen's take is false, and Trump will become the 47th President of the United States!!!! That's my prediction. Oh Allan, being partial to the GOP is as evident as your fantastic physical prowess at age 77, well done sir on the latter.
King Joseph will abdicate Camilla enthroned as first black and female, and Trump will miss out on 47th.
He's wrong on the economy keys and the scandal key
But that's the point. He makes the keys vague and subjective so he doesn't end up backing a candidate with zero chances of winning and if his pick loses he can refit his model and claim it still holds up.
He interprets his "keys" inconsistently. In 2000 bush lost despite his prediction so professor crazy clarified that the keys are for predicting the popular vote. But if it's for the popular vote then prof crazy was wrong about Trump in 2016.
He evaluates the economy by GDP, Americans by their wallets. Only officials can say that the economy under Biden is better than under Trump.Biden's endless falls, the migration crisis, the assassination attempt on Trump - all this is enough for a scandal.
and " Trump is not charismatic" key
Third party is absolutely false RFK endorsed Trump how is that plus for Harris
10 outa 10 record doesn't lie, Busta brown
Everyone Can be wrong Occasionally...Never Rely on the Word of a Predictor...Vote For Yourself and Pray For the Best.
"Pray..." Really?
It’s a wig
@@PureBleachFilmsnah bro he got a haircut he's got crazy genes
@@tomprice4016yes really
@@PureBleachFilmsYou mean a toupée? No it’s real.
He just happen to work for The New York Times establishment news pundits . Must have gotten a raise on this one.
Get ready for another Civil War if that happens, I cannot believe with how badly she is done she was even an option for the position. I find it extremely disrespectful as an American that she is a candidate.
GUESS WHAT, people feel the same about Trump.
How is she doing badly? She's polling far ahead of trump, she slaughtered him at the debate, NOBODY likes trump across any pond...
@@Videosuserbc they just like to hate on them bc no one can stop the man from taking the country back and making it great again
i find it extremely disrespectful to have a convicted felon as a candidate but here we are
I think he is biased on a couple of keys.
economy for sure!
Nah, you're just mad he didn't predict a Trump win again.
@@Mswordx23 nah, we all know the economy for the bottom 75% sucks. So, yeah, his is biased. I could go on, but it doesn’t matter. You will believe anything that the left says.
Been following Allan’s analyses on the 2024 Election all year. My biggest concern was the social unrest key, as that was one of the shakier keys and Donald could've gotten the win if the key turned false. But as Allan said at 6:40, we still gotta get out and vote in the Fall whether we like his prediction or not. Check your voter registration and make sure your vote is counted after you cast it!
dude doesn't even take into account the large population of African Americans leaning towards Trump, a group that the Biden team swarmed on in 2020, paid to vote, paid to sign people up to vote, etc etc. you will see that backfire on them this year
Better stock up on Beans, rice, flour, corn mill, jerkey, etc!
I thought it was already expensive?? 🤡🤡🤡
Pemican my man
Vote Trump 2024 if you love America and what it stands for you will definitely vote Trump 2024.
Wow surprised to see The New York Times post this. Can't wait for the debate!
I believe that Trump will make some lame excuse why he refuses to do the debate. It will be something like "the debate is rigged against me..."
@@Nagroddy Yea, that's why kamala wears an earpiece to avoid talking to the press, and why she hasn't had a debate or another interview. They hid biden in the basement, but hiding kamala in plain sight. Vote Trump 2024
As for the upcoming debate,
This will be the Fight of the new century!
It has two things that remind me of the great Ali fights.
Kamala, will rope the dope and say "what's my name..!"
The NYT is a leftist newspaper, like 98% of all the MSM.
@@Nagroddyor "my bone spurs are acting up "
Keep in mind the TH-cam channel that posted this video. A prime example of Social engineering of I’ve ever seen one. Make your own choices, establish your own beliefs, don’t allow mainstream media into your subconscious mind!
He was on Fox when he predicted Trump would win. Was that just social engineering and fake, or is it only fake when the channels that you don't agree with have him on?
What is this guy smoking?
He's been right all the time?
@@FinalCountdown-oz8pc So if I gambled and won $1m in the lottery that means you should gamble?
Improbable events happen. Of course the guy who happened to get lucky is going to make the news, as opposed to other people who didn't. None of it changes the fact that the model doesn't use actual verifiable statistics at all, and even the fundamentals are dubious.
@shadowyzephyr not the same thing, he has a system and it works. It's way too good for it to be a coincidence.
The economy IS in a Recession! What’s he smoking?
He's braindead
source... please... God forbit people actually be intelligent on the internet
Russian and China are cheering for Harris.
Russia is definitely cheering for Trump
@@shadowyzephyr No, Putin said he wants Harris. He and Xi can get away with anything if she's in office. She doesn't gave the guts or the intelligence to stand up to them. She is as weak as Biden
I watched you on your sons podcast and I have to say New York Times this was worth the wait and it was absolutely adorable! I am cheering and just just too too happy! Thank you Mr. Lichtman! 🇺🇸
Weird rug though.
Bot
Still, make sure you vote.
My local weatherman has a better than 50% record on predicting stuff.
but he probably doesn't have a 90% record like this guy does.
This will be the time your prediction fails!
Wow young Allan was very hot!
I KNOW RIGHT😍
Now he cuts his own hair
The hair is incredible. Needs a different hair dresser but dang he has a lot to work with.
....and sweaty!!
Got you wet huh
Just a friendly reminder that in 2016, EVERYONE was 110% sure Hilary Clinton was going to win. Nothing is sure until it happens. GO VOTE!
Mr lichtman predicted that Trump would win and he was right
In 2016, Lichtman was not sure of that.
She should have won. In no sane reality a clown like Trump would come close to the presidency.He is skilled at nothing and completely ignorant of most things. A person like that CAN'T be president!
Not him.
@@michelangelobuonarroti916 He wasn't sure of his own prediction either to be fair.
Remember no matter how amazing this is you still need to vote everyone!!!
As soon as someone proffers up a policy and not sloganeering, sure. But in America, we’re not the other party of management is good enough for 90z of voters.
This is scientific way of looking at presidential race. Scientific prediction or hypothesis in realistic sense might not work as per the theoretical term.
The president was already chosen for us. I'm baffled by people who are gullible enough to believe in voting and this illusion of choice. The CIA has its hands in every country's election, having overthrown governments and installed their own(fact). Why are the American people so naive as to think the deep state wouldn't meddle in our own elections? The deep state would not risk another Trump presidency. A CIA official has openly admitted to withholding intelligence from Trump. The consensus in government is that Trump is a liability and can't be trusted.
@@ArktinenJenkkibud if you’re STILL saying Kamala has no policies you’re telling on yourself for not having done any research
@@kate_6436 her price ceilings will have the opposite effect that the price floor on milk has. remember all those massive underground government warehouses full of surplus cheese? when you have a price ceiling, you get the opposite, a shortage. and with the amount of spending she has stated she's planning to do, the ceilings on basic goods will have to be aggressive to sufficiently offset the devaluation of the dollar.
Vote for Republican....vote....vote....then his predict will be wrong....
Who takes the NYT seriously anymore.😂 Now known as the national joke, when discussing the future of newspapers.
You're a newsmax and oan guy aren't you?
I like his message TO GET OUT AND VOTE 🙌
Yes vote TRUMP
@@Lara-c9n that is your right.
Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote.
No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No.
Voting is meaningless and does absolutely nothing to change the state of our country, especially if something like the electoral college exists.
@@I_am_a_human_not_a_commodity The electoral college system is basically based on the popular vote, I don't understand your argument.
@@I_am_a_human_not_a_commodity yes, the interspersed crooked ones break the flow of success.
@@MatthewNeumann-t4v no, the EC isn't helpful. Cows and corn don't vote, nor should they. People are what count.
There is no way you can seriously say the economy for the middle class has been better the under the last president
Under Trump, we were in a recession in 2020.
I know right?
"but the media told me the economy is good"....
Well the economy is objectively in much better shape now than when the Biden Administration entered office. That’s a statistical fact. So why are the prices still high for the middle class? Hmm, maybe it is the companies and corporations who are keeping costs high even though inflation is down… you know, it’s called price gouging. Now, remind me which presidential candidate is running on fighting price gouging, and who is running on tax cuts for corporations and billionaires? Former is Kamala, latter is Trump. Don’t fall for this MAGA rhetoric that the Biden Admin screwed the economy, the reason you are paying so much is because of greedy corporations; not inflation. And now Trump wants to grant these corporations even more power. Think before you vote people.
@@daveinthemicrowavemy comment above.
@@daveinthemicrowave It is based on quantitative measure, not your feelings.
AND THIS MY FRIENDS IS PERFECT PROPAGANDA
he predicted Biden would win and he got that wrong.
Only in the minds of Trump cult members. For people who live in reality, Biden won.
Professor Licthman was the best professor I ever had. Amazing guy
RFK Jr. dropping out being favourable for Harris, despite his voter base being primarily Trump inclined, and his endorsement of Trump afterwards, makes this seem quite flawed. So does saying the economy looks good due to certain metrics, it’s what voters feel about the economy that matters when standing in the voting booth. Doesn’t matter what the metrics say, of if they are ‘right’ or ‘wrong’.
Exactly. Gas, electricity, food.. its just a fact. There's also plenty of social unrest
Yes, exactly right on. The economy hits people in the pocket book that has a bearing on the out come, That's the economy for a lot of people
he lies the economey is terible we are payijng 3 dollars for water
Four years ago under Trump we had a RECESSION and 15% unemployment. You may pay an extra dollar for water but thanks to Biden you very likely have a job.
His keys are about whether there's a recession and GDP growth.
He was wrong once, so, he can be wrong again. It is like the warning for stock investors - his past performance (correct predictions to incorrect predictions) does not guarantee his future results (being correct again this time).
@alpscraftshack599 ...where did Trump get "more" votes from? 🤔
He lost last time, why would he win this time? 🤷🏼♀️
@@Practicerecordings Yes, Trump lost last time, but, not by the big margin they said. There was cheating, but, it was not enough to chance the outcome. I worked the Polls for 5 election cycles, and, I saw cheating first hand. Every time I said something about it, I was shut down. Trump could win this time, due to poor performance by his successor and the economic hurting of so many that were better off when he was in office.
Love Professor Lichtman, his weekly podcast is very informative. He’s an educator, a family man, and a lifelong athlete. What’s not to love?
you would not love him if Trump had been the winner
Did you love him in 2016? :)
@@SJ-oxy I did not even know Allan in 2016