These Odds Are Terrible!
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 8 ก.ย. 2024
- Is this loot box website just as scummy and scammy as it once was?
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#LootBox #Scam
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A few viewers brought up the resale factor as a way to bring down EV for a particular box, however, accounting for it mathematically would have opened up a can of worms far too complicated to navigate in a video of this stature. You'd need to make assumptions about _how many_ items are refunded and how many are kept. For these EV calculations, I assumed all items would be kept. I could have walked away with every single item I won and continued to play with my remaining balance. Of course HypeDrop's gonna give you a fraction of your earnings back if you decide to sell - and that's another way to "print money" as a commenter put it - but this factor is secondary to the EV of the box at the start of each roll (because, again, you can walk away at any time and keep every prize won). You could argue that it's a worst-case assumption (and I'll give ya that), but it beats accounting for the decision to "keep" or "sell" every item won.
Also, if I was HypeDrop, I'd skew the odds in such a way that I wouldn't need to assume all players resell won items. Eliminate all uncertainty. Hence why I focused on the deals they're likely making for ultra-cheap game keys.
Why no link to the first video in the description? We can't start the series on part 2 that's blasphemous.
It's in a card literally in the beginning of the video. But I can also include it in the description if that'll make it easier. Either way, you could watch this video without seeing the first and still be in the loop :-)
Greg Salazar a friend of mine was addicted to hypedrop, he once got a good gpu (i think it was a 1660 or something i forgot) then he wanted to get it obviously then they said that it was out of stock and they emailed him that he would get 400 store credit and no gpu. He was dumb and accepted it but obviously he started getting game keys and then he quit.
I wonder if selling back an item at a net gain to you results in worse outcomes on future purchases. This way they give you a seemingly good deal, but then you get flagged and put on a loser list. It happens on some casino games on mobile. Makes sense.
If they're affiliated with G2A, as one would conclude with G2A pay as a payment option, the easiest place to look into for your discrepancy is the keys (especially considering they are the highest probability items). G2A are selling many of these keys below the stated $5 cost as you already noted, but G2A either 1) paid less for those keys and thus the cost is still lower than their market value or 2) are using this as a way to rid themselves of as many of these game keys that aren't selling as possible. Like you said inventory sitting on shelves isn't ideal, a game key already owned but that isn't moving due to loss of popularity or whatever is pure loss if it is never sold, even if they're not directly affiliated this could make for a great bulk discount.
Any sell-backs for items at a lower cost than the original box are also pure profit, if you pay $5 for the loot box and sell back a key for 69 cents that's $4.31 profit, and what honestly are you gonna do with 7 keys of superhot? Plus we can look at other sell back items like the coolers some as noted are platform specific, and therefor will probably never be taken by someone who has the other platform, intel and AMD specific coolers thus would become a great fit for cheaper boxes and any platform specific box would have to increase in price, intel still holds more market share so one would think AMD coolers would be easier to make money on but perhaps there just aren't as many low cost options.
IDK
Random Person: Rolls for i9-9980XE
and lands on it.
HypeBox: Oops. 504 Gateway Timeout error
Random Person: Wait, what? WTF?
HypeBox: We're sorry, heres a game key for the inconvenience.
Your PCMD It wouldn't happen anyways these sites don't have odds, just rigged.
@@GanDtech this does happen. maybe this website is different, but i can tell you i was playing one of those pop a ball poker games. 1st pop hit something like A,K,Q,J and another jack. leaving me just the 10 off a royal flush. so i "lock" in the 4 and repop trying for the 10. and would you believe i got it! I jumped out of my chair being that i just won something like 10k tickets. then the machine said error unable to find the ball.... but it was not the 10 ball i had just poped, it was the Jack that had been locked in from the round before, yet the game knew where it was then. I called the manger over pissed off and all he said was i could not prove i got the royal flush and offered 100tickets for my time. and by the time the manger got there the machine had gone in to demo mode and had repoped all of the balls so there where not sitting in the now 4 out 5 royal flush.
The website determines what you win the split second you hit enter, meaning you have already lost before you even know it, if you were to land on a top prise the website server should already know what it is and should have saved the result, if not then this is very VERY bad design.
But as stated in this video, the odds of winning that price are nearly zero, and to me they ARE zero since the prise never existed, to me these sites are rigged so yeah.
i see RuneScape i upvote 👍
LOL
Thats why i cliked on this video
Greg probably doesn't even know what RS is.
Not a btw btw
Only reason I tapped on this video
The house always wins. Even when they lose, they win.
Still better chance than getting a knife in csgo. Lol
Doubt, Valve can generate 10000 knifes for literally free and they have to actually pay for this stuff ;) Doesn't matter, both are scam.
How to get knife in csgo with minimum investment/mostly free atcost of playtime:
1)Buy the prime status for drops (if you haven't bought it already).
2) Check the csgo update/csgo discussion forum for any new update with csgo cases.
3) Play csgo regularly until you get your 2-3 weekly cases drop and hope you get the new case.
4) Sell any new case and keep the old cases worth 0,03 $.
5) Sell any old cases when they go up in price and you're confident they won't go up anymore.
6) After a year or so if you have played regularly you should be able to put an order on the market (or maybe straight up buy) for the cheapest and crappiest knife ,probably a navaja.
Not really, I unboxed a $1300 knife the other day
I've spent around $2,000 in cs keys (i've checked on steam)
I've unboxed
ST Flip Fade FN
Karambit marble fade FN max fire/ice with a perfect corner - still by far my most insane pull
Karambit ultra violet FT
Flip marble fade FN
Karambit damascus steel FT
Classic knife crimson web FT
Handwrap overprints MW
and now a skeleton knife crimson web FT ($1200-1300 i was talking about) recorded that one too.
I believe unboxing a knife is around 1/400ish) so .25
Not really that insane if you think about it.
@@iZaners good for you then. Not everyone has that luck. 🤣
@@vnkt_yt #realstories
So they go from an F to a D- ?? An attempt was made to be more forthcoming, but they can't escape the scammy nature of their business model.
Don't forget, that everytime someone sells back an item, say a game key for $0.69 from the $4.99 box, the company makes an instant profit of $4.30.
Well.. close enough since these keys are most likely bought in bulk for cheap
I'd say they make more, $50 Roll wins you a $4.99 Key that you sell for $0.69, this means the company made close to $50 and you made nothing at all.
Just spend the money on a McDonalds or something, buy a broken PC, Go to s str*p club or whatever, even setting the money on FIRE is better than using these websites since you may actually get enjoyment from it where as this is just scamming you.
Renting pc parts and now tech loot boxes. The ridiculous stuff I keep finding out thanks to this channel. lol
I love how, without fail, the item to the very left or right of your item was always worth several hundred or even thousands of dollars.
Thats exactly how they get you, the spins are rigged so that happens and you think you almost won big so you play again.
RuneScape is mentioned in perfect context
Swath of RS comments ensues
Like the lottery, it's another tax on those who failed math...
It's no less stupid than alcohol, or smoking, or fast food, or countless things we all waste money on. What Kind of empty sanitised life do you live where you don't "waste" money on silly things occasionally.
@@wyterabitt2149 I am sorry you failed math...
@@BornYooper The cry of the uneducated. It's like hearing the flat Earthers shouting "scientific method" like a brain damaged tourettes sufferer. You're in good company.
So it is rational to spend money on something where your expected return is less than your cost?
EuclideanPrime Numbers
The EXPECTED return is NOT more than the cost. The expected return value accounts for probability, the Fair EV as presented in this video. This lack of accounting for statistics goes back to what the OP is saying.
With that said, the POSSIBLE return is higher than the cost. And, some people get a rush from that and “playing the odds.” They know the odds and play for being one of the lucky players.
Cant wait on 3080ti!
Wait..
I think your very first roll of the day probably has a higher chance of winning something of higher value to make you think you'll win good stuff often
Then it would be possible to game them by using different IPs and accounts, to let them think you are a new user every time.
The Ryzen box has a good not sucking rating, as long as you expect a cooler, and are not unlucky with hitting that 25% 212 evo the rest of the coolers are valued (on amazon) over $40 with IMO makes it far less risky. you also have a 20% chance on getting something that have a higher then $50 amazon value.
is that third age Armour from runescape?
Yes. Will make sense if you watch the video.
@@GregSalazar watching rn : )
@@GregSalazar loved it!
Legit only clicked cuz of the third age
@@speedydraw quit runescape youre addicted
I feel like another way for them to have a higher outcome is by having the knowledge that people will often return items. Especially with those games, I feel like people are likelely to simply 'sell them back' to hypedrop for 65 cents. This means that this specific reward only costs them 65 cents instead of the 5 dollar listed price, assuming almost everyone sell the keys back to them.
Not even just that, I'd bet they got the game keys for under 50 cent a pop as well, meaning they really made $4.31, plus get to sell that same game key to another sap for $4.31...
"The more they play, the more they lose. In the end, we get it all" - Robert De Niro - Casino
"Anybody in his or her basement can set up one of these sites up, and make a ton of money." Yes, Serbian TH-camr Nixa Zizu and his MagicUnbox site.
3:29 he air quoted so hard his fingers disappeared from reality.
Greg now says "Lisa, honey I just gambled away $100"
You don't go near ANY lootboxes as a gamer.
So I found this new site called CSGO LOTTO
My son worked at BestBuy years ago, his employee discount was 10% over cost. That said, the $50 gold plated monster USB cables cost him like $3 after the discount. Getting quotes on comparable items, like a 32" TV showed vastly different discounts per model and per manufacturer. My buddy owns a 12v online store and he drop ships almost everything. He pretty easily gets at least a 25% discount from the organizations and manufacturers, and doesn't do any of the work (they drop ship). He does buy inventory, but usually lost cost high margin stuff, or repair parts that he needs to ship immediately. Also, manufacturers often want to dump previous generation items, they spend money warehousing them, etc and often just want to get rid of them and places like overstock often buy them dirt cheap. I own a business myself, and there is a often a huge difference between wholesale and retail, but sometimes its only a couple percent. Would you want 2% of a $1000 laptop? Or 20% of $5 cable?
C-3PO: Sir, the odds of successfully winning a Core I7 on HypeDrop are approximately 3,247 to one!
Han: Never tell me the odds!
I probably would have accepted the cooler to review it as well as to see how the delivery process went. At least if you hadn't already reviewed the cooler.
cracklingice Probably wouldn't even ship and get in-store credit for the inconvenience 😂
Would that not have added to the impact of the video? (though it'd definitely increase production time substantially)
That was a very serious spreadsheet, wow!
You can't forget the trade ins. They make a lot of money back when people don't want the item and trade it back in.
I'd rather go to a real Casino.
I went to a Casino once knowing fully well I was gonna walk out of the building without the 100€ that I had when I walked in. But I *knew* this not because I am a pessimist (or a realist in this case) but because that was my *intention*.
I knew the business is theirs and not mine, and I never expected to win anything. But in my eyes, I spend 100€ on what I saw as a "ticket" to a really cool and expensive looking building, with excellent food and service, drinks, a fun ambient, and lots of cool games that were fun to lose at.
I didn't *bet* 100€ because I was never going to walk out until I was completely out of money. In fact I actually started out winning small amounts here and there, but simply kept playing until all my money was spent. It was fun.
But these virtual loot boxes are just scams. At least in a casino you can go with family or friends, have dinner and drinks and have a fun night. With these "loot boxes" you're just clicking a button on a website and losing money. You're not getting anything, not even a fun experience. These companies are basically preying on your optimism and desire to win (which fair enough, casinos also do that) but then they're not even offering you any sort of reward or fun experience. You just click a button and send them some of your money every time.
Where in Europe did you went?
just looking at that $5 gaming on a budget loot box at 1:48 you know its a scam lol. has a picture of a fully build PC in the box.........no way they would let that happen lol
My problem with anything like this is that you ultimately have to take their word for it that their system works the way it's presented. With a roulette wheel you can SEE the wheel in front of you. You can see the ball. And absent some kind of purposefully rigged table you can be reasonably certain the game is fairly presenting itself. With this? It's code. Code can be anything. And you have only their word that the code behaves the way they say it behaves. There's no gaming commission coming in and verifying the odds.
Honestly, you're better off playing the shell game with some guy with fingerless gloves in a subway station. At least then you know what you're walking in to.
Also assuming that most people would rather cash their prizes instead of claiming them. A 4.99 value down to $0.69. The profit is there.
The thing is: No one can prove the odds, therefor they are in no obligation to make those expensive items ever drop, unless you draw from THOUSANDS of draws, at which point they would take notice and simply make a seed to drop it to avoid suspicion, or easier still, make it drop after a certain profit was reached so they can have the ease of mind of "hey look we did give it out that one time!", the ""business"" model is made in such a way that is impossible to prove them wrong, even if you had acess to their "HQ", unless it was a 24/7 surveillence of their actions they will ALWAYS ALWAAAYS win, literally impossible for them to lose unless shut down by a goverment agency.
That's what scares me about lootboxes, especially in CSGO. Gambling sites can all be rigged, but case opening websites are by far the worst, because house edge can be as big as the owner wants. Roulette websites are the least scummy imo because even if the roulette can be rigged for a certain user, as long as everyone is playing the same roulette "table" (it rolls the same thing for everyone in the game) there's no way to profit off everyone, but in case opening websites (loot boxes), the website could display fake odds, pretend they have high tier items they dont, detect someone is doing too good and make their odds worst so that they start losing if they keep playing, etc. I hate online gambling but loot boxes take the prize for worst ones BY FAR in my opinion. And what sucks is that people keep using them.
Sitting on expensive inventory, jacking up the price and letting it rot on the shelve for years after it is obsolete; is why i have little sympathy for many brick and mortar computer shops struggling. Those idiots clearly do not even have a BA [or a cursory knowledge of business].
We have a similar thing in The Netherlands too...
You have, for example, the "Apple Box", which lists a lot of expensive ass Apple products but also just junk that doesn't have anything to do with Apple (let alone tech) like hair conditioners, lip balms etc.
Reselling stuff for practically free to them will help their margins too.
Also its possibly rigged .
And they might not send the idem at all.
Most of the expected value lies in the game keys. There's no way they're paying 6.47 for superhot keys. If you change those prices you will see a huge difference
Don't forget that they make extra money from people selling stuff back to them when they get something they don't want. This could even happen on higher value items.
Legitimately LOL'd at the Third Age armor reference.
They’re run like casinos. They have a limit in which they wait until a certain amount of spins and money are put in until they finally give you a chance at a decent pay out
Greg the re-roll feature likely offsets it. chances are people are winning stuff they dont want and "selling it back"
0:32 when you have 60hz monitor
I didn't realize this website existed, but this was a fantastic breakdown and was really interesting, thanks man
You can still see the same odds when you do the "free spin". You can see for yourself that 98% of the time you will get the "cheap" item... They don't seem to rig the free spin.
The values don't need to be lies for them to be profitable. They make their money from people "selling back" their items at huge discounts to try to get something they want. That is also where the addiction comes in.
As there is an account being charged with a virtual wallet the possibility is very high that even if you ""make a profit"" (like Greg's first box and sell that stuff) that it isn't possible to cash out ""your winnings"". Also ""winning"" something slightly over the value of the box will trigger a reaction that you're on a winning streak which in turn will result in you spending your ""winnings"" to hope to win more valuable stuff.
The odds of getting a great Greg Salazar video are great!
Qualty video - loved every minute of it Greg!!! Thanks
But I only published it 8 minutes ago...
@@GregSalazar True! I am stuck on 3rd minute! Had stuff to do! Now getting back on watching :D
@@OutOfPaceRacing "loved every minute of it" :-(
@@lurick It's Gregs vid - you don't have to be fortune teller to know - first minutes was enough to know :D
@@GregSalazar And I'll stick with it! Great vid - once I sumbled upon hypedrop through facebook ad and I got to tell you I was really tempted to try open boxes but the "too good to be true" look of the web page and advertising put me off and seeing in depth view from your perspective gives me piece that I skipped out on this website :D
If you notice, on a cheap item, it either hits it bang middle, or right at the start or end.
Ah I've figured something out. The spinner isnt at all representative of the odds. You might think at first that the spinner part is sort of real, just with fewer of the most expensive things on it and more of the less expensive. The spinner doesnt do anything but show you what you got. It's made so that you see the expensive stuff go by and you think you actually had a decent chance of getting it if the spinner wasnt moving quite the same.
Aaah maths on a Sunday morning. Life is good. Thanks Greg. Not that's not sarcasm, I really am happy for maths.
The thing is people like me who are skeptical enough to steer well clear are fine but so many people out there just can't see this stuff for the scams they are, it's why marketing people get paid alot of money. I bet Greg has no doubt had countless people like this try to get him on board.
I have a better chance of getting laid than winning an i9 processor.
It would be interesting to see if they actually send you an actual item (not a digital key) and if it is the mentioned brand in the case of the heatsink/fan.
Humanity intelligence is at an all time low now that loot boxes are creeping everywhere now. 😁
THAT 3RD AGE ARMOR JOKE OMG YES
If anyone bought the keys from grey market vendors (like urscdkey or scdkeys), have you ever experienced windows deactivate after some period of time due to the keys going on the MS's blacklist?
I got third age vambraces once years ago, but they were worthless due to the EoC update, despite their rarity :/.
This is litterally the real life stuff version of the shady CSGO lootbox sites from a few years ago. looking from the stuff they claim and the 'game mechanics' its even by the same people
What's the EV for the most expensive boxes? Isn't it possible that they're giving up a net loss for the cheap boxes, and make a killing on the expensive ones?
They could - but again, why do that to themselves? It'd take two seconds to rig it in your favor.
One slight problem, the 9980XE didn't age well. Should have thrown a 3970X in there. Much better top prize.
The other side is the refund option that you took - you sold it back to them for more money to gamble more and in doing so increased your chances of losing more money.
They'd probably make money even if they were 100% honest and bought the game keys for as much as they sell them. Not everyone will take the games, especially duplicates, or coolers they might not need, they might just turn them into the site's fake money at ridiculously bad rates and then lose it too.
But yeah, bulk buying keys is probably one of the big money-makers for them.
Oh no....now I am tempted to spend a few hundred bucks on those lootboxes....help! 😅
Suddenly I have an urge to go complete a Clue Scroll...
It is just gambling in a a casino. The house always wins.
The buy back is what isn't factored in. It is fiat currency until you have it physically in your hand.
I wouldn't be surprised if the algorithm is set to provide early success. This would encourage the behavior and make them more money in the long run. I don't think it was coincidence that your first "roll" was successful and positive.
I have been playing runescape since 2005 not once have I gotten a 3rd age item.
It’s not just the EV. Sure they’re paying less for those game keys but they’re banking on the end user paying $5 getting oh so close to that processor, getting a game key, trading it in for $.60 and repeating the process. They’re playing on the gambler’s fallacy/law of averages where as you’d think after a losing streak you’d be more likely to win.
Fresh content. Yay :)
EDIT: Those who share this site I bet that their odds are turned up.
There was one CS:GO site that did it but I don't remember it.
It’s like the hassle that they do on the streets with cards they let you win a couple of times then your hooked after that they take everything
incase anyone was wondering ive just done the maths for the box and it gives a 89% return on the money you put in if you sell everything for current cheapest market value in the uk
I think that 69 cents you get back for the key is closer to the price they pay than $5.
I love how every spin he was 1 slot away from either the 9980 or the prebuild.
They are also relying on people selling stuff back
4:02 but thats how provably fair works. They cant give you the unencrypted server seed before you play because then you would be able to predetermine the result. The system is only supposed to give you a way of proving afterwards that your reward was indeed picked randomly at the odds they display. It would be impossible for them to fix the odds when your custom client seed has an impact on the result. Its common practice to have such a system on many poker sites as well, nothing shady about it.
This is why everyone needs to take a probability course. Nothing special you can take a basic python class and learn how to create a similar algorithm to theirs. Remember the odds will always be in their favor- coming from applied mathematician / statistician. Buying more will never improve your odds because they are sampling without replacement and also weighted probability where the game keys are weighted much higher than more expensive items...so it’s still a scam because a fair Dice will have 1/6 probability but a weighted dice won’t be 1/6...and this is what this company is doing.
Spore CD keys were cracked and the executable was patched a long long time ago. Unless those keys are going into game launchers like Steam, I wouldn't be surprised if the cost is literally zero.
Btw you confused the terms mutually exclusive with statistically independent. If the events were mutually exclusive then one could not happen after the other. Them being independent means P(aNc)=P(a)*P(c). I.e the chance of a does not affect the chance of c :)
As if lootbox are bad enough with video game. Now, they're doing it to products you actually physically buy. We human sure know how to degraded ourselves. 😳
Anyone who gambles against someone that profits from it and think the odds are in their favor deserve to loose their money. It’s probable that even in a case of a clear win the gambler won’t need it and sell it to gamble some more and loose on the principal of “risk of ruin”, play long enough you are sure to loose. There is probably no warehouse just an Amazon account.
The 10 dislikes are employees of this scam company 😂
If you have to prove that your scam is fair, then it's not.
I've bought a ton of keys from G2A over the years and have never had any issues. You just have to buy to from top seller's. I tend to buy from the same top sellers.
Okay, so they're showing odds now. That doesn't mean I trust those to be the actual odds. Without regulations like those placed on casinos, there's no guarantee that they aren't changing the odds every time you play.
Heh. I won't, and haven't, approached loot box websites at all. I'll just buy the things I want. Can't afford it? Time to save up or find _reasonable_ credit (not that crap you showed in a previous video). No gambling like this, ever.
They don't need to bring the EV below 5 if people don't take the actual product. They make 4.30 on every game key people don't take.
if you are after content for a video look at ebay sales in australia 20% off but before the sales the prices seem to go up 30% or more
I have had 2 Third-Age items over the years.
Before the GE came to the game I got a Third-Age Kiteshield and on Juli 18 last year the Third-Age Mage Hat.
Mind you I have completed a ton of clues over the years.
These odds are worst than getting a SSR in FGO! Not worth.
IMHO the overall price also takes into account that most people refund the prize (game keys), and there you have wast majority of your profit.
I almost shit myself when you brought up runescape 😂😂
I removed the heat spreaders from my ram but the tape left residue and/or ripped in half , any suggestions on what I can safely use to remove it ?
Do you think the web site is designed to give you a “win” on the first spin to encourage you to continue?
many websites and games work that way.
Lets give you some of the cash shop cash to use, and you'll use the cash shop, you'll feel that excitement of buying something, and you'll come back to spend more, and more, while if they didn't give you anything in the beginning, you're far less likely to spend some cash.
ESO does this as well, they give you a lootbox if you watch one of their streams :D
oh a lootbox, fun, lets open it!
then you've tasted the excitement of opening lootboxes, and you'll spend money to do it again!.
Would work on these websites as well.
Lets let you win one time in the beginning, and you'll feel the odds are in your favor, and you will gamble more!
Probably
Probably not ,since it would be pretty easy to go from site to site and win something of worth.
Toralian89
Maybe that would be a good idea. Even if it was, how many people would do that?
> want a super pc
> gamble 100% of the super pc cost on hypedrop
> end up with nothing
>JUST
Long story short, just spend that $5 a month on GeForceNow subscription or even the free tier.
Well actually I got a 3rd age bow on OSRS on my 40th master clue. So are you recommending this site for me?
Loved the RS reference. This is why I love this channel!
The Ev is below 5 because people take 4.30 loss over and over hoping for 5% role.
I've actually gotten third age on runescape...
Time to buy some loot boxes
You should compare the results of the "play for free" option with the play for money.
Basically if you want to use a site like this i offer three better ways to gamble:
- Get piss drunk for 10€, charge your paypal up with 50€ and browse ebay and let yourself surprise with what you ended up with.
- withdraw 50-60€, go to a casino / lottery machine, go all in. If you lose everything, ask in a forum for a dirt rallye key (lol, i think i still got like 3 from different bundles), if you win get the part you wand and need.
- get the part you need for dirt cheap off ebay used condition. chances are it is broken, chances are it is fixable. but 100% of the time you are getting something, and there is a not so bad chance you can actually make it work. take a cpu: worst case, open it up, look at it, clean it with alcohol, clean all the contacts... maybe you repaired it, good job, and you got a 300€ cpu for like 50€. maybe it doesnt. but you wont need to buy like 100 used cpus to assume you can make at least one of them run...
-Thanks for watching-
Thanks for learning
👌