A New Front: Ukraine's War on Russian Oil and the Power to Hurt
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 มิ.ย. 2024
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Over the last month, Ukraine has quietly created a new front. At least ten drone attacks have targeted Russia's oil infrastructure, and the damage they have caused has been substantial. This video details what exactly Ukraine has done, how the campaign interacts with the broader strategy of the war, and how it gives Ukraine additional leverage with its Western coalition partners.
0:00 A New Strategy from Kyiv?
1:09 Ukraine's Attacks on Russian Oil Infrastructure
3:33 Power Projection into Russia
4:48 How This Alters the War of Attrition
10:12 Coalition Politics and Preference Asymmetries
11:50 Ukraine's New In-Coalition Leverage
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I appreciate so much that you don't pitch your book until the end. It's very refreshing to just get all the information and then you can pitch.
Yep, one of the reasons I actually bought it. 👍
Really bad for sales though. Book was ok if you can get it on sale worth it but it didnt really go as deep as I prefer though I have been researching Putins Russia since they invaded Georgia when I was visiting.
I'm not sure it actually is bad, though. The assumption that you are making is that the number of people who are more receptive when propositioned immediately is larger than those who lose interest in the book over the course of the video. I find it more likely that the number of people who will forget or be annoyed by being propositioned early or repeatedly is greater than those who will spend their own money on a topic but not finish a free video that takes less time to complete than the book.
@@SamtheIrishexan I interpret that as his books are not written in academic depth, but rather stops a little short of it. The intended audience for the books aren't his students. Rather people a bit more interested than average people, but who aren't looking for an academic disertation. And since you've studied the matters for a decade, you probably need to go search a little more in depth?! If there is a reference list in the book(s), that's a starting point. But you might also try write William, and ask for suggested reading. In my experience professors love giving such advice!😉
Yes. It might not be the best thing for marketing, but what is more important is his credibility as an educator.
So thanks, "Political Will".
Oil infrastructure is so large and costly. I don't know if any country could cost-effectively defend a 1000km pipeline, and Russia has several of them.
Russia is so underdeveloped that it NEVER expected for its oil infrastructure to be blown up unless it was ww3. I don’t think russia has the capability of repairing this infrastructure unless they pull billions every day from civilian infrastructure or the war ends.
Due to their being so much oil and gas infrastructure the Russian MOD must make a choice, pull back air defence from the front line and be more vulnerable there or leave the air defence where it is and take the hits to their oil and gas equipment. Either way it is a lose-lose situation.
If they pull back air defence from the front line, yes they can stave off attacks to their economy directly but it would accelerate the already crazy attrition they are suffering at the front. With the converse being if they keep it there and keep taking hits to their economy, which is already struggling under the cost of such a war they would go bankrupt at a much faster rate leading to more issuees in the domestic market.
Either way this will be an interesting couple months to see what they do.
So long as Moscow, St. P, and Putin’s villas haven’t been affected, everything is fine, nyet?
What are you talking about Russia has plenty of ADs and doesn't need to pull any back to defend other area, why are you dummies NOT talking about Avdiivka which is about to fall😂😂😂@theemperorofmankind3739
@@advancetotabletop5328 Nyet - there are also thousands of km of vulnerable power lines. If you take out a sufficient number of them with coordinated drone attacks or commando operations, their cities will be blacked out. It doesn't take a lot of explosive to destroy the insulators on power poles. Preferably in remote, hard to access places. Russia has systematically attacked UA civilian power infrastructure, so why should UA have any scruples ?
Since the West has not gotten the message yet, Ukraine needs to do what it must to cause the most pain to Russia, even if it's actions adversely affects Western oil imports.
Agreed
Ukraine also needs the west continued investment. For their sake let's hope this new development doesn't change that.
I suspect ISR for these attacks came from the WEST
Very true
I doubt it actually affects Western oil imports more than the Houthis in the Red Sea, shooting at Russia’s Shadow tanker fleet.
USA, Qatar, and even Iraq are ensuring that even China and India are not buying Russian hydrocarbons as much.
The port facility ones ( St Petersburg and Black Sea) are the most important ones. Because it doesn’t matter what they can do elsewhere if they can’t ship the product.
on that note, the railway destruction (sabotage?) in Siberia was also remarkable
Russia had the same logic regarding Ukrainian grain. Why break a working formula.
@@umjackdapples and oranges. Added cost per unit of putting grain on a truck for 5 hours to a neighbors port in Europe isn't the same as transporting oil in a distant Russian port city.
@@jayhill2193 there has been occurances of that since the start of the stalemate 6 months in.
whether its a group of saboteurs with a bag of demo charges or a local dissident with stolen ANFO, nobody knows for sure
@@umjackdukraine still transports grain trough NATO and EU countries territorial waters and railways.
Seems to me that Ukraine is forcing relocation of russian air defense assets to improve the environment for F16s
That could be or, at the least, it could be one of a number of effects they are hoping to achieve.
They're forcing Russia into a choice which will hurt Russia's war effort either way. If Russia moves enough air defenses back to protect their oil and gas infrastructure, then their coverage in Ukraine will be degraded. If they decide to keep their air defenses closer to the front, then Ukraine can just keep hitting the oil and gas infrastructure. Either option yields a negative result for Russia.
If Russia does move some if their air defenses back, it still won't mean that the F-16s will be able to safely operate over the front. They will almost certainly still need to stay at a distance and deliver stand-off munitions. But fewer air defenses will make those operations safer and might allow them to approach closer.
I'd say it's a brilliant dilemma. The same one Russia imposed in the past. Protect the rear and expose the front or vice versa. Even if this doesn't change the allocation of air defence, it's still a win for Ukraine cause it reduces Russia's war fighting potential.
@@S1551 Russia has tons of shorads so its concievable they can simultaneously protect the facilities and the frontline with long range sams
@@S1551 completely agree and very well put. Even if it doesn't significantly change their resource allocation it gives them another area to think about, and they don't exactly have the most flexible or capable command and control structure (at least afaict)
@@u2beuser714 long range Sams are not viable for front line defense. Not against the F16s extremely long range weaponry.
Zelensky deserves a humanitarian award for helping keep Russian citizens warm this winter.
All residents in Russia affected by gas and boiler outages are advised to relocate near oil refineries within 1000km of Free Ukrainian Territory.
Our remote combustion specialists will provide heating, in light of acute technical labor shortages triggered by recent policy choices in Moscow.
@@prfwrx2497 Labour shortages are mitigated by migration to russia which it still recieves from central asian countries according to U.N report
Ich,glaube es ist umgekehrt,wir sehen die ganzen Kriegsgefangenen der Ukros,verschmutzt,verdreckt,neue haben sie von uns bekommen,sie wollen auch nicht ausgetauscht werden,siehe Abschuss mit Kriegsgefangenen durch die Ukros,den Rest bekommt die Ukraine von uns,sie werden bald, keine Soldaten mehr haben,dann heißt es Game Over.
@@prfwrx2497settle down, the russians will also help the ukrianians warming their factories for free.
👍👍👍👍😂😂😂😂😂😂
The effectiveness of drones is utterly terrifying heading into the 2020s. We're going from Sticks to Swords to Arrows to Guns to Bombs to Drones 0_0
Drones dont do anything without bombs
It’s like Star Wars drones are coming
@@casper6014 But drones do make it much easier for bombs to get to where your enemy doesn't want them to be.
@@yenlinhtran69 I think you mean call of duty: black ops 2
Yeaaaaaah about that
The successful strike on the rail line to China in the far east, and a alternate bridge a day later, which was nearly the full expanse of the largest country in the world. Logistics for equipment and munitions is also strategically important, so combined with oil silos and depots, ammunition storages and factories, is even more threatening... add to that, the deteoriaating central heating infrastructure in the two largest cities and in the rural centers, the threat to domestic and military security is heightened further... the cost burden to the RFU is considerably high.
Successful ? Trains were moving on the supposedly damaged rail but ok.
@@Silver_Prussian Depends on what and who you believe... published photos showed significant damage... curious that the media has gone silent since...
@@user-sx9ky9sk9x significant as in what ? The roof has been damaged ? Have you seen the drones they attacked with ? They dont have the ability to cary a huge payload, they wont do any real damage.
@@Silver_Prussian You know - All these Russians aren't particularly happy with the way things are going on in Russia. There's more than one way to skin a cat. There are alternative ways to blow a tunnel other than drones. I think the Ukrainians may find help as all the Russians don't favor "meat waves."
@@Silver_Prussian
Significant as in 'the entire tunnel has collapsed and this will take Ruzzia years to rebuild' Sergei. 😃
0:50 "lines on map" 👍
Frankly, the potential leverage here for Ukraine is understated if anything in this video. Trading in Russian oil and gas has been a politically risky thing for many countries, even those in the BRICS, but it has been worthwhile because it is so cheap and because Russia has so few trading partners it is also reliable. Western pressure to either buy elsewhere or pay Russia less has been only partially successful. It has lowered the price but not the reliable oil deliveries and eager customers. But many of those same eager customers may be less enchanted with the prospect of Russian oil if its supply becomes unreliable. Even if that means they buy more from other suppliers to offset their losses, it represents a loss of trade for Russia. Every delayed shipment risks altering their deals with their buyers and gives those buyers increased leverage to demand lower prices. Russia is hardly in a position to refuse to negotiate a price reduction once such demands are made. If Ukraine can achieve that result, it is almost as good as achieving the kind of disruptions it would like to create.
4:08 That's a lot of freedom squares! Coincidentally Freedom Squares are my favorite breakfast cereal.
A pet Bald Eagle in every box!
Eastwood: "I eat freedom squares like you for breakfast"
Plain and simple for the average, interested, person. Thank you. Your presentation skills are amazing, quiet and effective.
13:50 thanks for explaining the kind of things officials will shy away from explaining
all bullshit here
@@chadhaire1711 Come with an argument if you want to be believed. Come with a trusted source. After all we're here discussing important problems like geopolitics and world security, we're not in kindergarten.
@@toshibell08 well here you go Goober.....out of 34 million in 2014 over 14 million have fled Ukraine into the EU to get away from Zelensky puppet government, and in spite of 200,000 military draft notices sent in the mail, 99% refused to come back.
The 4 million living in Ukraine voted to leave Ukraine rule and join Russia--1,2500,000 votes with over 80%. Same in East donbass with about 7 million. So over 60% of the country has deserted yet we in the west are told we are supposed to support them....when their own people do not. Plus Russia did not start this war--NATO and Ukraine Nazi AZOV party did by violating the 2015 peace deal.....is that enough for you?
@@toshibell08 out of 34 million over 14 million have fled Ukraine to the EU and in spite of 200,000 military draft notices to report to duty, 99% refused to come back. The 4 million in Crimea already voted to join Russia, 80% out of 1,250,000 votes,,,,,yet Ukraine says they are going to "liberate" Crimea....LOL....Donbass voted same another 7-8 million. Over 60% od population has deserted Ukraine...is that enough for you kid?
@@chadhaire1711Thanks. Since all your numbers are questionable and the subject you bring up has nothing to do with what was said at 13:50, I will leave the conversation here. I wish you success!
This new strategy is literally flames.
4:11
The first joke about freedom units didn't get me, but "freedom squares" did.
I actually like it when you pitch your books since it's always fun to try to see you drive a connection between the topic at hand and the books.
Might buy them someday.
I bought it precisely because they are placed class fully at the end of a well-done video
I believe the impact on the world is manageable and Ukraine#s leverage on her partners is overestimated when it comes to the refinery-campaign: Russia only has 6% of global refining capacities and Ukraine would be currently able to stop 50% of it (at best! and for a limited time). This is not enough to shake world markets.
Much more impactful it is for Russia: There relative profit in oil products is way better than in crude oil. Volumes are way smaller, yes, but profits are sweet. These now get taken down to some extent. This definitely hurts - we see cracks appearing in Russian economy even without this.
US was against hitting Russia territory in exchange for money and Weapons to Ukraine. Now that money is no more, Ukraine is free to fight the way they want to. which means hell to Russians cities and infrastructures (oil and gas).
You're absolutely right about affecting the more lucrative export of refined products (see also JoeBlogs youtube channel). But I wonder how much this affects the balance of internal consumption for Russia. Specifically, where will the fuel shortages hit the hardest, the civilian economy or the military? The Russian air force and army need a constant stream of fuel to fight. Recall fuel shortages affected Russia last fall during harvest season causing lines to form at gas stations.
Those refineries also fuels literally the Russian war machine and economy. The dilemma becomes foreign currency vs domestic productivity and military effectiveness.
I also think so. US has pushed its own production to the max, Venezuela export sanctions have been lifted last fall, even India switches from Russian to Iraqi oil as it is offered cheaper.
@@lindsaycole8409 its a tri-lemma between export cash - army - civil sector.
Just think, the Ukrainians would’ve been able to start doing this way earlier, if only the West didn’t impose restrictions on weapons use within Russian territory…
I think, overall it is better it is this way. The russians can be sure, that even if some weapon deliveries would be halted, Ukraine could still strike any location in European russia.
Just thinking that this level of hind sight bias doesn't take into account of the alternative of Putin deciding to dial up the aggression instead of giving up imo
Well thankfully things change
@@AG-en5ythis isn’t hindsight. They had no trained troops to attack back then. We failed Ukraine and got more Ukrainians killed because we didn’t allow them to strike Russian territory and didn’t supply their counter offensive. Our inaction led to Russians boosting their defences and training troops they ran out of.
@@MrUltimategamer44 also true in 2014
In case some people are wondering, where Gerassimov is, they might want to check out this video. Haven't expected him in the audience at 13:53. Really like the way you#re explaining all this and connecting the dots. Great work, thank you for that.
Ha ha, thanks for pointing that out! I never would have seen it otherwise.
Yes. That's a good one. I missed it until you pointed it out.
more accurately: 13:55 to 14:00
There is no reason for Ukraine to limit itself as long as it does not recieve promised necessary aid. As long as they stay within the Geneva convention, everyone must be content. You can't expect them to sit still and loose.
Well, DO they really stay within the Geneva conventions?
I would not blame them if they dont stay inside thr convention. When fighting the devil for your soul normal rules need not apply in my opinion.
@@DC-ux1dt The devil?
@@21stcenturyscotsadvertisin24 Yes they do, and yes the devil, if you lived on the same planet as all the others in the past two years. Calm down with your bs and with playing the pink-hearted all international-law-abiding citizen. It doesn't work anymore. In case you're a troll go to your boss and tell them that you messed up today and that the international law argument should be updated to more than a philosophical question in order to be credible anymore.
No Kiev no nato no Russia
Are you playing "Where's Gurasimov"? I think I see him at 13:59. Second row of the audience in the photo.
Nah mate, he just wanted to finally hear some positive news from this war. ;)
I absolutely love your channel very addictive and always raises my eyebrows you know your stuff William top marks again keep up the great work you have thousands of subscribers who feel the same very interesting and highly detailed 👌😉
Thanks for this update. I am looking forward to ordering your books.
As ever William,great insight. Thank you.
I really appreciate it. The maps with all of the drones strikes on it. I hadn't really understood the scale and scope of what they had accomplished. I knew that the refinery attack near st. Petersburg was rather effective all things considered, but the distances successfully traversed are pretty mind-boggling considering the rock paper scissors approach Russia supposedly had when it came to air defense visa NATO
There are some other things, to think about. First of all the US is an oil exporter. So high oil prices help the US, but hurt most Americans, due to them having to pay the higher price. So the ideal situation would be Russia being kicked out of the oil market and the US replacing the oil exports. For the EU there is a strong push away from oil.
I thought Greta, Cher and AOC ban the use of oil after 2035?
Yes. And China's reliance on Russian oil from Siberia must make them squirm. And when Houthis aim Iranian missiles designed in the Soviet era at any tanker? Not a good model for an export economy in apogee.
Thanks again for your brilliant analysis!
Thank you for this report
Nuanced and subtle. Excellent piece William. Slava.
I'm always a little smarter after watching. Thanks for the facts.
Thank you for adding the freedom units.
Ah yes, 13:59 finally we get the answer of where Gerasimov is. Very informative. Thanks.
Yay the clock is right side up lol
Yet another great video, keep up the good work!
Very informative, thank you! It’s always so hard to get good information
Thanks for the great video - really appreciate your take on this. Thanks!
Excellent video, thank you.
It won't make any difference. All these facilities will not only be rebuilt but will be constructed in a more secure manner.
No they won't. At least, not until the west drops the sanctions
Or relocated.
very interesting analysis, as always
no.
Superb analysis thank you!
Thanks.
Until now, I didn't make a link between the attacks on Putin's upstream and downstream as helping to concentrate minds in the West. Good for Ukraine.
Weird part is that Ukraine cannot give up without disapearing.
We came here for the war update but stayed for the lines on maps.
I love every video from my "Political Will"! Thank you so much!
Good report,thank you.
You are right indeed alot of things is not mentioned in the media for propaganda purposes including this channel didn't mentioned important recent strategic Russian advances in avdivka and all along the combat line
Because that wasn't the topic of this vid? What does avdivka have to do with Ukraine attacking Russian oil infrastructure? Stay on topic, troll
No such thing as Russian advances when literally no Ukrainian soldier died in the entirety of 2023 and this year so far.
@@bud4792 really !!! It's not related ???!! its pure propaganda video about the Ukrainian war it didn't fail to mentioned Ukrainian joke (counter offensive) from last year but forgot recent Russian attacks what a hypocrite
Excellent as usual Mr.S. Greetings from across the pond.
Thank you!
great show Professor , thank you
Mike Johnson lost his mind.
If only. Mike's doing the job he was nominated for: help Trump win the election by doing as much political damage to Biden as possible
VERY GOOD analysis
good info!
I love this channel because of every time you say “twenty”. So rewarding yet unsettling.
Thanks for the interesting and informative video
I found Gerasimov, did you ?!?!?! :)
Now we know he isn't dead, and just living the best life as a floating torso
Excellent and informative. Thanks
Very good points here I had not considered.
Thank you .
🇺🇦🤝🇬🇧
13:58 so that's where he has been...
I think you were the first!
@@Gametheory101 How can I miss him, he looks so innocent!
Great report, thank you for the update 👍👍👍
Thank You very much for another insightful and expertly explained video, Political Will.
13:58 are we playing "Where's Gerasimov" now?😂
William haven't listened in a long time glad you are still making fun of our problem to understand the metric system.
The metric system is the most logical, you only need to know what is 1 meter, everything else is just derivative, kilometer is 1000 thousand metres, kilo means thousand, decimetre is 10 metres, deci means ten, it's from Latin probably, millimeter is 1/1000 of a meter, centimeter is 1/100 of a meter, everyone who is 7 and more can do this conversions really quickly... I've tried to find logic behind the imperial system, how many inches in foot, how many feet in a mile, how many inches in a mile or yard? I couldn't find one.... maybe there is some hidden logic and I'm too stupid to find it out 😮😂
Im impressed that Ukraine will be the first to have a Drone Military services!
Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines and the Drone services with a big SLAVA UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇲💯
Thank you William!
Another brilliant assessment 👏
Isn't the vast majority of Russia's oil located in Siberia? You need long range to really hurt that.
shush don't tell them. This is another fake victory like their summer offensive. Whenever Ukraine is failing on the battlefield we get distractions like this to talk about.
Well said this perspective has opened my eyes to the reality of the pros and cons of this war
Always a good vid..thanks
This isn't going the way Putin intended.
Yeah, a little over 3 days, and no end in sight.
Me when my 3 day special military operation to topple the “Zelensky regime” in Kyiv is heading into its third year less than 2 weeks from now and my forces are still nowhere near Kyiv after being pushed out back in 2022
Oh that's where Garasimov is the whole time.
He just got F-S-Spaced for boomtanking too frequently.
Very logical and hopeful, too!
Great insight!
Freedom units , love it!
A great name for our antiquated measurement system.
13:58 easter egg. No wonder why no one has seen him since the beginning of the war. He's hanging out at the White House.
Excellentcommentary. Aligns with mine.
Excellent presentation 😊😊😊
I found Gerasimov in the video at 14:00
He's become "Where's Waldo" 😂
He's become Carmen Sandiego.
@@Jay.Kellett He's become a good russian
Great stuff. Really have appreciated these videos over the last 2 years. Keep it up and congratulations on the well deserved success. Hopefully someday we won't need videos about lines on maps, but until then, you're the guy!
Very sharp analysis!
Great information keep it up
Very nice of Lloyd Austin to save Gerasimov a seat at the White House press conference.
It was actually Milley's seat I covered up! =D
Lol
@@Gametheory101 Where is Gerasimove anyways?
If the attacks against oil infrastructure destabilize the international oil market, which the west doesn't like, could this lead to a negative side-effect where the west becomes less likely to supply long range cruise missiles and ATACMS that can be used to carry out these strikes?
He gets into that at 12:30. The west’s supply of aid is slowing and thus Ukraine has little pressure to deter them from preventing the long term profitability of this war for Russia (disabling oil refineries).
The attacks inside Russia are done with Ukrainian made drones, so Ukraine isn’t violating any of the conditions set for using Western long-range weapons.
Other than that, you do have a point. The leverage cuts both ways - the west can say ”stop bombing hydrocarbon infrastructure in Russia or we will withdraw support” just as well as Ukraine can say ”Give us more support and we will stop.”
They aren't giving anyway, so Ukrainians are free to use their own weapons at their discretion, if they cannot count on the help. Please go find Zelensky's interview in 20th February 2022 at the Munich Security Conference.
US has pushed its own production to the max, Venezuela export sanctions have been lifted last fall, even India switches from Russian to Iraqi oil as it is offered cheaper.
And Ukraine, until now, only attacked refineries and refined product export plants, but not crude oil facilities - as the video proposes, they know exactly what they are doing.
What destabilisation are you talking about. First of all they havent destroyed nor any oil refinery not any storage. Second they havent even damaged it because they use drones for their attacks that cant carry a big payload.
Third most of russias refineries are nar the urals in the urals and east of the urals. How will they strike targets more than 1000 km away.
always a great analysis!
These are very interesting ideas
What I dont understand is how much actual damage do those attacks on oil storages and refineries do? It feels like Russia has hundreds of those storages and refineries.
Did those recent attacks cause long term shutdown?
Much of their oil infrastructure is Western & they don't have the knowledge to bring it back online, & they are sanctioned so no one from the west will help them with parts etc
This channel is a great reminder that people can have their conspiracy theories, but watching how people use the tools they have tell you the most about what is going on in their head. If this was always about destroying russia, they would have started this much sooner
Amazing!
Excellent analysis! ♾
I dunno. I think Lines on Maps is a perfect name for the channel.
Ukraine finally played their books right, hopefully getting some more support and attention that was absent recently
I hate this war, but I love the strategy analysis.
Political Will and the Freedom Units, that band rocks! Thanks.
We’ll be opening for ABlinken in no time.
Zelensky on the thumbnail gang
Nice reference!
I voted in that poll Zeleskyy, and I got him too!
Ugh, I got the botox monster on mine.
@@pakkazull8370 😔
The Ukrainian "just stop oil" activist are actually doing something instead of blocking roads.
Great video.
❤ great job William 👏
What if we just took Russia, and moved it somewhere else?
I think not all the drones are flying out of Ukrainian territory. Some drone may be flying out of Russia itself and piloted by either Ukrainian agents or Russian partisans.
Latvia and Estonia might be considered as well. Finland? Lithuania, even Sweden? Russia has made a lot of enemies.
❤-Always value your analysis ❤
❤ this thoughtful video ❤