Russian Reshuffle: What the Kremlin Shakeup Means for the War and the Ridiculous Reaction to It
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 8 มิ.ย. 2024
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On May 12, the Kremlin announced a reshuffle of its cabinet positions: both Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and Secretary of the Security Council Nikoali Patrushev lost those job titles. Much of the media discussion afterward was misleading, though. This video explores exactly what happened, what we know and what is speculation, and how it may affect the war in Ukraine. Also, we are haunted by chicken once again.
0:00 Putin's Cabinet Reshuffling
0:58 Reading the Tea Leaves
2:10 Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu "Fired"
4:28 Why this Isn't Good News for Ukraine
6:09 The Nikolai Patrushev Mystery
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Don't worry, Sergei... in Moscow, when one window closes, another window opens.
That sound ominous...
Especially high up in hospitals.
Sergei will be wearing a parachute to bed from now on.
Genuinely made me laugh out loud lmao
a
At least William Spaniel is not trying to sell me someth-GOD DAMN IT
Good books though. His humour hits even harder when there's shitloads more graphs.
Better than the others who want to sell us anything!
Not really, he trying to sell you another story. He was wrong in the past 2 years several times.
Just don't watch pro ukrain or pro Russian channels and instead watch objectives channels. Which this channel trying to be, unfortunately he is uneducated and lacks any political or military background
Where is surovkin btw? He wasn't fired neither, at least William says so. No evidence this person lives
*D'UH*
I think it's fair to plug your own book on your own youtube channel
our own government does it all the time when a senior manager isn't getting the job done, they are "promoted" to a position where they can do the least harm
so reassigning them to an unimportant position?
So do many private companies.
"Sadly, it really does seem like we are back to doing that." is a sentiment that unfortunately to me is ringing true a bit too commonly these days.
Yep - devolution seems to be the trend nowadays. I jot it up to increased interconnectivity giving every idiot on this planet a platform to spout their nonsense.
What? No lines on maps? How odd, thanks for the update.
Barely anything changes on the front these days, from Russia's failed attempt in Kharkiv just showing us HOW weak they got since 2022 - none of the changes in the front have been "War winning"
This war will be won on an economic level, and that, sadly - might take decades.
@@gae_wead_dad_6914 a country that gets supported the most will win the war economically
There were lines on video calls.
His lines on maps are a conceptual abstraction representing an array of possible outcomes. They don't usually represent actual lines on actual maps. (They would be the worst war mapping ever.) I guess not drawing them, and letting them be an abstraction, would lose a lot of us. So, he draws the damn things.
The lines on map are implied when not explicitly shown
If you live in a place where you can't interrogate the Easter Bunny, you really are living in 1984.
Or Animal Farm
"listen here you furry lil shit I WANT ANSWERS" *slams palms on desk*
you (the usa) cant talk about is ra els war crimes so .........
@lalzgarra9493. Talking and protesting peacefully is permitted. Destroying property and threatening other people is not.
Overnight camping on campus is not.
Constructing unauthorized buildings on campus is not.
The Easter Bunny died in 2020, yet another victim of COVID-19.
The only reason we are so damn surprised by Shoigu getting replaced is because in a rational country he would have been sent out the door with a fucking catapult yonks ago, so Putin actually putting another man in the position ends up being quite unexpected because Shoigu getting replaced implies that someone actually acknowledged reality.
Putin, similar to other dictators values loyalty over competence. Shoigu never seemed too competent but was his loyalty ever in doubt? Has Putin reached his phase of Stalin paranoia?
He just moved Shoigu to another high level position on a governmental board. The new guy is what I find most interesting and especially the timing
Many of us were not surprised at all that Shoigu was, effectively, demoted. It had to happen and should have happened a long time ago. Putin is now acknowledging the financial realities of war and Belousov is there to extract money from the economy for the war effort. The only problem for Putin is that he creates enemies with each reshuffle, even amongst his "loyal" friends. Those demoted are meant to be grateful they are not dead.
"I'm just trying to sell you something."
I come here for honesty.
I got it.
For that reason alone, I'm buying the book lol
"where as I am just trying to sell you something." .. That was hilarious, w/ tears in my eyes.
Ah, just like the good ol' times of trying to guess the latest gossips of the Russian court
check The Duran, very good to explain this move.
Duran has only dumb opinions
Yeah, I'm very agnostic about all of that. People have different theories but in the end we won't know for at least a year or so what's happening. Maybe even longer if it's something serious
Shoigu went into "silent retirement": these are pointless positions with important titles but absolutely no actual power. This is common strategy for putin regime. This way he can ensure that the person is not too angry to stage the revolt and (this is more important) to preserve the loyalty. Every person around him sees that the loyalty does bring the benefits even if you screw up. If Shoigu went "window mode" every single one from putin surroundings will doubt their loyalty simply out of fear.
So, yes, Shoigu was indeed fired.
"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
-- Napoleon Bonaparte
I knew the moment that Shoigu changed positions that Lines-On-Map Man was gonna have a piece!
It's rather ominous for Ukraine that an economist is now Minister of Defense, which at first may seem strange (imagine Lloyd Austin being "replaced" by Jerome Powell). But Russia will now have a war economist that prioritizes efficiency for the military, whilst keeping a loyal general that is still good and competent at being a general.
Even the best economist can't turn the tide when the money is simply running out.
@@unduloid Don't tell that to Vlady! 🤫
Hopefully the economist will be so busy finding ways to line his pockets that he won’t have proper focus on getting stuff made.
@@eriks.9730 If he is corrupt he will have more money away than Shoigu as he is a money man, if he is not so corrupt the other corrupt officials will be looking to weaken his position if he steps on their toes, and having Putin minding your back might not cut it, especially if it goes a bit wrong from the start!?!
Lol guys you're so clueless
You don't change shit by swapping out generals. Russian corruption begins with the commanders and ends with shoigu
Russia is already a war economy. They already raising loans, shifting to cheap drone production, buying resources under the radar of sanctions
Welcome to William the 20 yo edgelord politician
I love how you always highlight the interesting implications over the most shocking ones
Dang! You make me laugh. Very helpful, thanks! The rational take on what we can and can't know is also most excellent.
Chickens, chickens. I just found out that my neighbor now has chickens. What is going on here?
Thank you, William
From what I heard from anti putin or neutral russian channels in what they call the "vertical power system", Soygu got very demoted. In the system your power come from the power to appoint jobs, manage budget and make rules and laws. That makes the defence minister the most powerful and the security council has none of the powers, being only an advisor. So it is more like thay he has was sidelined and will probably be kept to be used as a scapegoat if needed.
Sounds @INSIDERUSSIA to me.
Indeed, Konstantin seems to be the commentator most out of line with his observations with our lines on a map man a close second: "What does this mean about Patrushev?"
Maybe that Konstantin will shed more light on this tonight.
@@pierresaelen3097 Indeed. But I've seen the vertical power system being described before in other channels since I started looking into it after the invasion. It makes sense when described, but I have no personal experience to know.
Russia operates Putin as Al Capone anybody getting in his way will be removed, he pays his henchmen all the people out of his circle are second class to his bidding and the bidding of his elites, he doesn't give a damn about them but enforces them to support him!?!
Vertical power systems are common in countries without a Civil Service. That doesn't mean Shoigu has been demoted (he's still close to Putin), but it _is_ something to consider.
@@Melggart The "power vertical" phrase is very establishment within the community of Russia experts to describe Putin's loyalty-based, personal hold on the levers of power, which he accomplished by various tactics beyond the obvious stuff like nationalizing mass media and directing the Duma to pass scads of authoritarian bills, which Putin always promptly signs into law. Among his more subtle institutional changes or prerogatives: centralizing regional administration by stripping the governors of much of their power, making their offices subject to appointment by the president, instead of winning regional elections, and saddling them with many of the services that used to be the purview -- and budgetary responsibility of, the federal govt.; personally appointing like-minded kleptocrats to the key positions of regional prosecutors general, where they could effectively pick businesses for "railroading" (cynically legalistic, extortionate takeovers by the political elites, in which the Putin-loyal P.G. very selectively decides which executives have been, say, cheating on their taxes, and generally securing control and/or ownership of the firm for their own mafia, or for one of Putin's cronies); pitting the many various security, policing, and intelligence agencies at each other and periodically shuffling key officials, tweaking their budgets, and otherwise playing favorites, keeping them off-balance, and ensuring that the most loyal ones enjoy the perks of winning the Loyalty-to-Putin Sweepstakes (re. the big three intel agencies -- the FSB, SVR, & GRU -- Putin's forever an FSB man and generally keeps them elevated, but also delights in encouraging feuding between the SVR & the GRU). There was even a long-running blog/podcast series by that name by Russia expert Brian Whitmore at RFE/RL [Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty -- yes, these are very much a thing, and were, even after the fall of communism... and deservedly so, 'cuz as we've all seen, authoritarians generally don't just slink off, and fascism is very much in resurgence], although it ended in 2018, in the wake of Trump's installation of a very, um, trumpy head of the govt. agency whose purview includes RFE/RL.
Thank you so much! I now know a little bit more about what I don't know in russian political intrigues. Glory to Ukraine! 💛💙💛💙
my condolences.
Russia has its flaws but Ukraine isn't lala-land. Ukrainian political situation is just as bad as russia's
@@user-dc9oq2pr6v even Worse. the corruption in Ucraine is famous, the degradation of the country since born on 1991, the extremists of Maydan , the situation on Jarkov because politicians steel the money of defenses never been build. and more, and more, and more.
its terrible situation of Ucraine, they are loosing, and are so blind, that not negotiate, just like the German Regime of 1933, that never negotiate, but fight until the Bitter End.
it is so terrible , but Ucraine will end , or like Yugoslavia, or Like South-Vietnam.
As always, awesome. Thanks William.
With Prigozhin gone there was a void to be filled... Shoigu is now in charge of catering.
You are the best to know what is happening in Ukraine and I watch all of them!
4:35 love this pic with that patriarch kiryl character or whatever his name is along high rank military personel, in his religious getup and everything
God doesnt like cowards and hypocrites. The Patriarch seems to be unaware of that. And the whole story of how Putin now is a Christian is poppycock.
Just look inte his cruel "former KGB"eyes when he prayed in church. There is a youtube video of it. The only God he believes in, is himself. 😢
Close: *Kirill
William Spaniel Thanks for posting this video
Another video producer explained that Shoigu will have fewer embezzlement opportunities in his new position. Also does not control the Army as his personal security force. Much increased risk from open windows.
He also explained that the economist who replaced Shoigu is an old fashioned Gosplan advocate. Relations losing the military industrial complex & demanding increased production with lower prices under management of party appointees will lead to quality collapse. The return of myriad inspectors will further gum up the works. Finally, personnel know how to work with the old corruption. Productivity will decrease while the new unwritten rules are established.
Exactly. Shoigu was demoted out of financial imperatives, not strategic or tactical.
I do like the way you integrated the ad--much better than the usual segue at the end. (1:55)
It is possible that Putin will be demoted next.
In that case, could it be that Patrushev is now his permanent watchdog?
Interesting video, thank you William! Keep up the good work!
Thank you for another excellent video!
Man this "3 day special military operation" looks like its not going well for putler
Yeah it’s not going well, but NATO’s weapons and training in Ukrainian hands have not pushed out Russia of Ukraine either. It will probably end up being a frozen conflict.
Maybe it is a 3 year Special Military Operation. Ukraine has lost all the initiative. A Russian victory (partial or total) is more likely than not. Blame dithering Biden for not sending the arms when needed.
@@lance2465 Not pushed Russia out of Ukraine YET........
@@lance2465
It will end when Russia has run out of money.
It wasn't planned to end in 3 days. This fake duration of the war was firstly introduced by an American general.
the reason why many people say shoigu got fired is because as far as russian power players are concerned, he has just lost access to personal, moneyflows, contracts, lawmaking capability and thus political firepower.
what he has gained in exchange is... the option to tell others branches of the government that shoigu is concerned about [topic].
no significant money flows through his new department, he has lost the command over several million people and gained about 200, he can not really make any lawbinding decisions...
he can only suggest and yell loudly into the room. others decide on how (or if) they want to act on it.
Been waiting for this video since Shoigu got replaced! Thanks !!
thank you so much!
These guys are all getting okd, maybe the elder and Shoigu just needed less demanding positions. Also once the distraction of the Wagner fiasco ended, the mod has been much better equipped and prepared. I think Wagner was a huge drain on leadership’s ability to manage resources, only so many hours in a day when you’re dealing with a war, a megalomaniac, adding a hotdog chef was too much
I would be checking the vodka cases before they load them on your next flight Shogu.
Shoigu was in charge of the military.....so he had over a million people....trained to follow orders without questioning him, working for him. He also was responsible for all military contracts, so trillions of dollars for tanks, ammo rockets missiles, trucks, guns, uniforms, military buildings etc. His new position, he is in charge of no one. AND her has no budget. No people working for him (except a few secretaries) and no money. He has lost ALL of his POWER. He has basically been nullified. His predecessor in his new position did nothing and went onto to another nothing job. This job he took is just a holding position with zero power. So...while he wasnt FIRED...it is definitely a DEMOTION....he went from being the 2nd most powerful person in Russia, to the BOTTOM of the ladder in positions of power. 2 of his former General staff (Ivanov and Kuznetsov)were arrested for bribery and stealing and 2 more generals (Tsalikov and Krivoruchko) just put in their resignations, meaning they were about to get arrested......shoigus time on this earth is getting shorter by the minute.
Pretty sure all our times on Earth are getting shorter by the minute unless you found the fountain of youth (did you?)
Trillions of dollars?
The entire Russian military budget for 2023 was about $84 bill.
I didn't expect the beautiful Putin-Shoigu bromance pix. 🥰
Shoigu was clearly grossly incompetent. Any change towards competent leadership is not "good news" for Ukraine.
Hi Dr. Spaniel!
What kerfuffle led to this reshuffle?
Great Assessment we need more Thinkers like you
I loved that self promo! So shrude, yet so minimal and so true =)
Shrude, is that when you're both shrewd and rude? ;)
I kind of interpreted this as mix of Sergei getting kicked upstairs and Putin just wanting fresh blood out of a hope a new person can turn this war in his favour. We'll see if this gamble pays off.
Good reporting. Thank you. Strong democracy.
The industry's over-reliance on hyperbole is the exact reason I don't pay much attention to news media anymore. The one (paraphrased) title of "Putin sacks Shoigu, appoints him to another position" does an especially good job of contradicting itself, but the author at least makes it somewhat clear that Shoigu wasn't really "fired."
As a semi-related tangent, I find it incredibly disturbing when news media does little more than regurgitate a police department's official statement on any given crime with zero investigation of their own. See the death of George Floyd as an example - in the immediate aftermath, all the news did was parrot the department's claim of "Man Dies After Medical Incident During Police Interaction." If it wasn't for witness and security cameras recording the incident, that may have been the end of the story as seemingly no journalists are willing or able to dig deeper.
I guess Prigozhin sort (not really) got what he wanted?
ШОЙГУ, ГЕРАСИМОВ, ГДЕ, СУКА, БОЕПРИПАСЫ?
This is very common in my country, loyalists or family members don't get fired if they are incompetent, they get "promoted".
The competent ones that are not so loyal would resign, and the incompetent ones with no connections are truly fired.
That no harm no fowl joke was top tier
It's true that you would want the enemy minster of defense to stay if he was bad at his job. However, the truth is that no one in Putin's government is good at their job. The system he has built rejects anyone who is halfway efficient at anything other than embezzlement, which is its chief and only purpose. Indeed, efficiency comes into direct conflict with that purpose because an efficient manager actually makes his subordinates work and demands results, which reduces the opportunities for embezzlement. So Ukraine needn't worry, things may not get better, but are certainly not going to get any worse.
The eco minister is very good at his job.
This video is a bit short, could have been a little longer, as it was a very interesting topic that caught me (as usual). Some parts could indeed have been expanded further. (I have liked it though, excellent job as usual!)
The reality of Shoigu's new position is that it is mostly ceremonial.
Not even that...
He will be "missing" and forgotten in no time.
Sometimes when companies are getting ready to fire an executive, they moved to "Special Projects". It's more than a "timeout", and tge executive will soon either leave on their own, or invited to do so.
Shoigu has joined with Gerasimov, Guarding the Kerch Bridge, from the Navigation Spans....IMHO
In Japan they "sack" almost the entire cabinet every election, then everyone gets new jobs within the same cabinet. The minister for foreign affairs becomes the minster for defence, etc.
Reshuffling cabinets is very common in many countries.
“Whereas I am merely trying to sell you something.”
Love it.
He wasn’t even fired he was technically promoted LMAO
Technically no as he has much less real power now so it's a demotion. Though by how much is debatable.
"where as im just trying to sell you something." good perspective from youtube content creators.
Biggest change I'll bet is the complete change of tactics, so currently "known" tactics will change.
Yeah. Beau said something similar that basically the only interesting thing would be to find out where Patrushev went.
the fowl joke reminded me to upvote ya. thanks much for the awesome content :)
Interesting views.
Any cabinet is re-shuffled.
I would argue that a civilian economist at the head of a military is as bad an idea as having a military general at the head of the civilian government. It's just not their field of expertise.
But we'll have to see if this is a smart move by Russia or not. Ultimately, replacing Shoigu isn't going to change much about the facts on the ground. The same dilemmas still exist and it's a matter of waiting and seeing if the strategic approach is actually going to change significantly.
As for Shoigu being promoted into the security council (I heard it was the 3rd seat not the 1st), it could be a reward for loyalty, basic nepotism or Russia might be expecting civil unrest to increase. My money is on a mix of those three. He's a close friend of Putin, has followed orders and if unrest does increase, it doesn't hurt to have a ruthless loyal guy in the domestic security apparatus.
The West should be more concerned about what WE do, rather than what Russia is doing. They're trying to solve their problems, we should try to solve Ukraine's.
the analysis is fowl.
Thank you, that's the real story... Patrushev
Oh that's a shame, they've put a bean counter in place of Shoigu, he might even be more efficient! LOL
OK I've discovered your channel over the last week or so and it's great, brilliantly overview work, excellently and engagingly presented
You know I used to watch Extra Credits when I was a bit younger, still dip in, but the change in the voiceover marked a bit of a turning point for me
You sound a lot like the old voiceover, similar cadence
The world is small, you cover similar things, on the same platform
Like Dan, you mean?
Go back a year or two ago, you'll love it
Yeah, dude pre Dan.
Had a great like double voice harmony to it, was amazing, and had the same rhythm to his cadence as this channel.
Like naturally excellent information distribution through a sentence and paragraph, and video. Pacing excellent
@@thesecretformula1337 I mean - Dan was amazing. That is true. His voice was different, but maybe cadence is similar.
Patrushev was mentioned by Beau of the 5th Column. Who was also asking where's theat guy?
It is worth noting that Shoigu's "team" had rapidly been disassembled. Some have been arrested, others have resigned. Very rapidly, Shoigu's power base has more or less vanished. In the West, money brings power. In Russia, power brings money. Shoigu no longer has access to the fountain of cash provided by his formerly powerful position in the State. So yes, Shoigu has been demoted.
He's moving them like icons on a Screensaver.
Pootie is familiar with Machiavelli. "Keep your friends close and your enemies even closer." That's why Shoigu is still in the Kremlin.
Are you going to do a video on the outcome of the Russian election? You made a big deal about it in the run up and I'd love to hear your perspective on what actually happens and what you think that means for Putin. As always, thank you for your great videos.
This is it...Putin is finally calling his WW3 staff...I think Portugal better start learning russian
I live in Estonia and I'd say someone being 'fired' and given a new roughly comparable sinecure can be pretty standard.
Perhaps a more apt comparison than to the US would've been to a parliamentary democracy like the UK where you will frequently see ministers 'fired' from one of a big roles as part of a reshuffle that sees them taking over a less important role within the cabinet. This frequently occurs when a minister has fallen out of favor with the PM (or some scandal has forced the PM to bury them to a less observable role). But you are right about it not being good for Ukraine as pretty much anyone would be an improvement as defense minister.
At least you're honest about your books.
2:48 he got the drip 😰
The Russian defence ministry’s human resources chief has been arrested and accused of bribery in an apparent purge on allies of former minister Sergei Shoigu.
Court politics is better model to frame the situation
RIP, Sergei
layed off for a while then when he feels save will fly out of the window
Minister of defence has a lot of power, decision making, and a lot of money pour through their hands. In contrary, the head of the council is just a sitting mushroom without power or money to grab. Pootin cleared up Shoigu and replaced him with even less competent but very loyal tool that proved his worth with blackmailing oligarchs to give up some money for the war machine. That is what Pootin needs now more than anything. The situation in the country is dire and it worsens each passing day and a wrong person with so much power as the minister of defence able to initiate a coup is danger to tzar.
Wait, no lines on maps? Not even Presidential succession lines on maps? Yes, yes, we are back to Cold War Kremlinology. Glad to see my degree is no longer useless. Given the nebulous description of Patrushev's new position, could it be putting him in a place to succeed Putin? Or, is Medvedev a foregone conclusion. Damnit, things haven't been this interesting since Stalin vs Trotsky.
So....when does Sergei get his defenestration medal?
Ah, I love to see some sense in my media.
Darning chickens. A novel concept.
Yes, Patrushev! Why are you the only commentator to bring up the significance of this?!
"Poor" Shoigu - well, he will probably soon find another "window of opportunity" 😂
If a cabinet reshuffle during a war must always have some great deep meaning, I guess that must mean that anyone planning to retire on day X 3 years from now who finds out day X is in the middle of a war (or relevant crisis for relevant ministry) must change their mind. Cabinet reshuffles _do_ sometimes have deep meaning, but retirement (or just moving onto other career prospects) will happen both during idle times and crisis times. Also the comparison with Lloyd Austin being made national security advisor is apt. You don't even need to do deep analysis for that to realize Shoigu was not fired.
Not fired but promoted
Here's what I'm selling: I think the russian economy is much worse off than everyone is being led to believe, and the appointment of an economist says "at this point, we're more worried about where we'll be getting our weapons in twelve months than the military trying to overthrow Dobby the Dacha Elf."
See, Shoigu's...only marketable quality, really, was that he has (obviously) shared a sleeping bag in the woods with that thing in the Kremlin once or twice. They are...ahem..."close." Shoigu is loyal to the point of sycophantic. You NEED that, if you're going to change your constitution to make yourself a tsar, while still pretending that you run a democracy. The coup always comes from the military - unless your inept camping "buddy" is looking for a job. Slap a couple dozen giant medals on his chest and - bam - you got yourself a Minister of Defense.
...until your economy goes so badly awry that supplying your genocidal war becomes a challenge. At this point, you bring in someone like Belousov, who has architected many of the rf's famous "retroactive voluntary windfall tax-" yada yada yada, they're policies that allow the Kremlin to raid private businesses. It tells us that the need that Belousov serves has superseded the need that Shoigu served - not that either need has necessarily gone away. This is terrible news for the russian economy (well, the private "non-war" economy) in the long term and is a bad indicator for how things are going behind the scenes in the Kremlin. But not necessarily great news for Ukraine in the short-term either - likely a push, at the end of the day.
Two thoughts - the elimination of pigozhin paved the way for this, as that thing in the Kremlin is less scared of his military without a polarizing leader at the helm of a private army, and also, this happened in response to the passing of military aid for Ukraine by the US, not the (haha) "election" and subsequent coronation of the tsar.
reshuffle not fire and hire
He's gonna be like Medvedev holding a titular position with little to no power.
8:17 - Good one.
I think 💩 tin is just making sure he has closer allies around him, protection 😊 against anyone who wants him out❤🤔
Prigozyn is probably happy.
The worrying thing is this new guy might be more competent than Sergei. If competent less corrupt people get into power, this could make things worse for Ukraine.
Instant like for the humorous honesty of 2:04. I did already buy one of them. Edit for a typo that I couldn't live with.
No harm, no fowl - bazziiinng! I tip my hat...
With the Patruschevs it's all about control of the money for Putin
At least you're not trying to sell us the Kerch bridge....