How Seizing Russian Assets Will Change the Invasion of Ukraine
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 พ.ค. 2024
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Recently, the United States made the first steps toward seizing $300 billion in Russian assets. Since the start of the invasion, that money has been frozen in Western accounts. But soon it may be possible that the United States, the European Union, and others will outright confiscate it. This video examines the complicated politics that go into the decision. It is not all upside for the West, but it also is not an inherently flawed strategy.
0:00 The West's $300 Billion Question
1:58 The Russian Assets the West Controls
5:57 What's in the U.S. Seizure Bill?
7:36 Russia's Tit-for-Tat Response
9:17 Will Seizure Destroy Trust in the System?
11:57 The Hidden Benefits of Seizure
14:58 The One-Time Cost Problem
21:23 Biden Learns about the Wagner Rebellion
Here is my article from the symposium on the war: journals.sagepub.com/doi/full...
And here are the others:
"The bargaining framework and Russia's invasion of Ukraine" (this is the introduction to the symposium): journals.sagepub.com/doi/full...
"Commitment problems and Russia's invasion of Ukraine": journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1...
"Crisis bargaining, domestic politics and Russia's invasion of Ukraine": journals.sagepub.com/doi/full...
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
By Government.ru:
archive.government.ru/eng/docs...
By Kremlin.ru:
tours.kremlin.ru/tour/senate
kremlin.ru/eng/articles/bigpho...
kremlin.ru/news/20604
en.kremlin.ru/catalog/keywords...
kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/67/...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
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![TREASURE - 'KING KONG' COMEBACK SPECIAL [THE TREASURE SHOW]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Jx1wyMaQzf0/mqdefault.jpg)
"Special banking operation" had me in tears 😂
Me too! 😅😂
Damn! I came here to say this. haha
@@billy2807 Ditto.
No it didn't.
@@Gaetano.94 😭
I had been calling it a seizure, but Special Banking Operation is way funnier
Just wait until BRICS+ does a Special Operation on the Western Financial System in the near future. I bet the West won't be laughing.
**In Clancy Brown's voice** Epilogue: In a world where you don't run from the law but the law runs from you...
Their weapon: an angry e-mail. ...The only justice made is with rising interest rates and giving no quarter or dime...
Their enforcer: a glassed suit with accompanying suitcase.
...Ready to make you sign over the literal skin on your back... Special. (Dolby fx) Banking. (Dolby woosh) Operation. (Tripod sound a la War of the Worlds)
Ukraine will never gonna get that aid😂
@@nuke_Godjirayou wish, bot
It would damage US dollar globally. Though it has plenty of global reputation to be damaged until the damage surfaces.
"Special Banking Operation" had me laughing so loud that I startled my dog
Similar thing happened to me. But was my dog shocked because she had already realized that the geopolitical vagaries of such seizures would erode confidence in the USD as global exchange currency (or worse, necessitate questioning the very need for such financial hegemony considering the current realities of deglobalization); or just because of my spit-take at 'Special Banking Operation'.
@@MasDingos Sure. The U.S. dollar isn't going anywhere. The Ruble on the other hand. 😁
It's all about your country's Federal reserve banks
Banking / IMF And black rock corporations . money of a few institutions . !
Holy fuck Special Banking Operation would be such a funny way to describe it, especially if the US called it that too
You can stop laughing now 🤡.
There are $288 billion of American assets in Russia. Putin signed a decree today saying if any of the Russian money gets sized they'll simply seize American assets in retaliarion.
FJB got outwitted again.
Gotta feeling AmeriKKKunt's special banking operation will turn out to be a complete failure.
I’ve said this before but in my opinion at this point the best course of action is to give me the assets.
Based
And then stay out of buildings that have windows that can open on upper floors....
@@casbot71 I’m a ground floor kind of guy myself.
share?
@@jakehandley3366we should do a three way split
Probably worth mentioning that if Ukraine gets the full $300B and uses it to buy Western weapons (where they would otherwise receive the same weapons as donations), it's essentially a transfer to the West.
You're not wrong. I offer a counterpoint tho, there are more than a few Americans who are suggesting we stop sending aid altogether, regardless of whether it's a "donation" or something more like lend/lease..
If American support disappears for whatever reason over the next year, that 300B could be the difference between becoming Orcs or staying Ukrainian.
Edit: Amazing pfp, btw. I salute you o7 lol
I'm pretty sure Ukraine is getting more money if they get Russian assets. Russia has done up to a Trillion dollars in asset destruction,(not gdp loss, but asset evaluation,) in Ukraine. And the USA and Europe are probably not going to donate a full trillion dollars of replacement.
@evananderson1455 😂😂😂Ukraine has received close to that amount even know and they are STILL losing and falling back.
Ukraine already speaks Russian as their dominant language, so they will enjoy being Russian. By force if needed.
@@Red-Check-MarkThanks bot
@@evananderson1455 For sure. Alternatively Ukraine may still receive the same amount of donations in addition to the $300B and be far more able to defeat Russia. My point is mostly that there is some financial incentive for The West to give the money to Ukraine.
“Get excited because it’s time for lines on maps”
Physically starts wiggling with glee
We have a saying in Spain: "100 years of forgiveness for the thief who steals from another thief"
What western country did russia steal from?
Please elaborate on what this means
@@sanelemngadi9324 It prolly means exactly what it sounds like. That a thief who steals from another thief is better liked, because no one likes the first thief who stole your stuff. But everyone likes when that first guy gets his comeupance.
The whole fable of robin hood is kind of like this in a nutshell. If you view rich nobles as the first thief.
@@Destroyer_V0 the first link is the king who commands the nobles to pay taxes, the second is the nobles who persuade (or intimidate) the commoners for coins. The third link is the commoners own fear and ignorance for handing over their daily fortunes. That's what makes the theif so both infamous and beloved, the thief is the "unlinked link" (zorro is my favorite with Robin hood second)
Spain already forgave the USA then for 1898
9:15 "Without any clear benefit to anyone."
The bloodsucking lawyers--- "Are we invisible to you?"
Well, they don't show up in mirrors, do they...?!
Stop invading other country or u will get what's coming to you.😢
"Seizure" vs "Confiscation" somewhat implies that "a future peace oriented", fully democratic, successor Russian regime, will have a very strong legal claim to be compensated in full over time.
@@t5ruxlee210 If it went to Ukraine's infrastructure & repatriation, etc. efforts, then I doubt it would be in full - since it would be used as principle in rebuilding efforts & so on.
Same idea as paying it from elsewhere, but cuts out a step.
So stealing people money is OK for the western?
Belgian here, we're supposedly using the interests gained on the money parked here to fund aid to Ukraine.
I can see that being a good means of having a continuous stream of funds instead of all spent in one go, and then the bullk of it can be used for post war rebuild and humanitarian aid.
It won’t do anything to the financial system. Investors will be glad to put their money where the country does not tolerate scammers and grifters.
And taken away when you dont go along with some policy.
Belgian finances are always a mess, but don't worry... I bet the City of London and the Caiman Islands are in it with you.
Nice... Slava Ukraini!
And now the question: You have money from other countries stored in your country, you have confiscated the money of one side, what will the rest do? Correctly, they will start withdrawing their money, what if you consider them not democratic enough and try to steal money from them?
Этот процесс не остановить. Репутация доллара падает. Брикс не на пустом месте вырос
@@andrew_decorbrics is a meme, china and India can’t get along
But again we do not know the line between "reluctant leavers" and "reluctant stayers". They COULD withdraw. But where would they put it? What is so stable? Not the Yuan for now.....else China would have it's OWN reserve currency.
Those countries will not invade neighboring countries so they don’t have to worry about it. It is very simple.
@@SP-pr7gq hm why then so called "civilized" countries can invade and bomb other countries and other who are not "civilized" can't?
The "one-time cost" argument only works if the alternative is threatening seizure at the final negotiating table. A one-time cost that (your opponent believes) you'd never be willing to use has no coercive power in the first place. Of course there are other important arguments about the global consequences of seizure but looking solely at the Ukraine War, it's a tradeoff between the coercive power of the contingent $300bn seizure at the final bargaining table, and the change in the expected military outcome from giving Ukraine $300bn.
The point is that everybody knows that Ukraine would only get a small fraction of that money and the global economic consequences would shake the world, as all investments in the West by Asian and African governments would be considered extremely risky. That would be also the end of the petrodollar and the infinite ability of the US to print money. Then those 300 Russian billion would not be enough to fix the kitchen sink.
@@joek600 u r genius thx!
I think one important issue to ask is, does Russia needs the $300 billion to finance their economy? If they need it, it could be a leverage. At this time, it seems that they don't need it. They are self sufficient. Lavrov and Putin said that. The argument that the money could be use to buy weapons is not a reality. The first thing that will happen is Ukraine's debts have to paid first. Lawsuits will be flying like fireworks to make it happen. The other concern is Russia will file lawsuits in every court to stop the release of the money. It will get stuck in limbo for a few years while Russia is annihilating the Ukrainian soldiers and turning Ukraine into a wasteland not worth salvaging when the dust settled. In the mean time the world financial system will be tearing apart because the US gave countries a clear justification not to use dollars in international transactions, and not to invest in dollars. These politicians have to be fired. They have no common sense. My hyperbolic hypothesis. Just saying.
@@joek600 LOL, that's too big brain for the normies.
What final negotiating table? You mean the one in fantasyland where Putin’s word is worth anything? (Kind of like the ruble)
Good discussion , however, Russia sees this fight as an existential fight… 300 billion isn’t a leverage point
Correct. The war will be decided on the battlefield.
they could just withdrwa from ukraine and the fight will be over. but i guess it's about Putin's existence as russia's supreme leader
@@yosefyonin6824aww darling, ukraine will attack russia, so russia is not going to get back
No it's not about Russias existence. It's about the current leadership in Russia. Unfortunately, the Russian people have no concept of taking control of their own government.
@@yosefyonin6824 They literally said that NATO not following their agreement and keep expanding to Russia's border. Remember when Russia want to join NATO but get refused? Yes NATO been making Russia enemy ever since Putin still a newbie president who want to join the west at the time. Imagine if Putin joined NATO then Putin will be need to be more "Democratic" to play with NATO guidebook. The West can't see anything past 5 years in the future for their strategic plan-action.
One point not mentioned in the analysis: the threat of seizing the money may have either 1) already been internalized by russia, or 2) may have been given odds so low by Russia as to not be an effective threat anymore. In the first case, Russia would have already written off the funds as lost, or as an acceptable cost for the war, at which point they no longer represent bargaining power. In the second case, Russia was essentially calling our bluff, only to learn now that we’re following through on the threat.
These situations correspond to Russia putting a near 100% or near 0% probability on our threat to seize, respectively. In either case, it’s effectiveness as leverage is far outweighed by the resource’s value.
We can’t know if these possibilities are actually at play here. But we might be able to learn if the 0% case is at play if Russia responds by internalizing the revealed information that the threat is genuine, and then attempting to bargain to stop the follow through.
If the West seizes all money of states they don't like, nobody will keep their money in the Western banks. The West will lose much more than 300B if they seize these funds.
I’d also like to point out that if the “one time cost” pays for 300Bn of military support, it ends up being a “recurring cost” as those weapons will continue destroying Russia’s economy and remove the need for the politicians of every western ally to politically defend spending their own billions on Ukraine aid. 300Bn would effectively end the war, with Russia on the losing end, and most of that money would end up in the hands of the countries who would produce the most arms and munitions for Ukraine. Win-win-win for Ukraine and the west. No Fing clue why this hasn’t been done already.
@@nathanfausti9213 I suspect more likely west just pockets it and continues aid from old stocks and says "we helped ukraine". US has done it like this so far. some theory even suggests this was plan all along as fiat currencies suck and loose value anyway, with other fiat papers backing loans.
@@effexon That IS a major concern. I think the current US administration is waiting for the likely full control of congress after the next election so that they can disburse the funds for legitimate reasons without having to fight the republicans trying to line their owners’ pockets. 🤷
Does anybody know the value of the assets that western businesses had to leave behind in Russia at the start of this war including structures investment and hardware and if Russia adopted these or if Russia is considering reimbursing these companies.
Russia will have to wave goodbye to these assets just like the west has to its assets and investments in Russia.
Either way $300+ billion dollars is A LOT of money, it's at least a few years worth of support and it'll go a long way in this war, it'll also allow other countries that are currently donating a lot to focus more on building up their own stock again.
Money can't buy man power
@@seanmorgan8128 that's true, but it can buy a lot of drones and ammunition
I believe the lawyers have already given their opinion on this 'legal theft'. Two things of note. The interest earned on those assets has the same legal status as the assets themselves. It is therefore useless to try separate the treatment of the two. Then there is the threat of Russia seizing western assets in retaliation. This will not be restricted to assets within Russian borders. What you will end up with is a very unstable economic position for all. There have already been examples of what happens when European countries have tried to seize Iran's assets. Economic piracy is not beneficial to the West, better tread carefully.
Nah, the West is good at generating capital. Russia, without oil, not so much. So, if it becomes a game of chicken, then the easy choice is to seize the assets and fund Ukraine. Russia's response will not matter. Ukraine will be funded indefinitely, and Russia will be that much pooerer.
But Russia has already seized many Western assets (airplanes, companies sold for a ridiculous price, etc).
They could easily justify a seizure corresponding to the equivalent as "reparation".
In fact, I'm surprised of the lack of reaction about Russia's robbery.
@@yyyy-uv3po The companies who sold their subsidiaries in Russia for a fraction of their value didn't do so because Russia made them do so but because of western sanctions on Russia forced western companies to cease trading with them and the companies concerned should be seeking compensation from western governments for their losses.
Russia meanwhile now owns the companies and the factories they set up in Russia and is keeping the profits for themselves. it is a win-win situation for Russia, thanks to the West helping them so much by imposing sanctions. I suspect the Russian leadership is having a good laugh at how western sanctions have backfired on the west and has made Russia richer and also far more self sufficient
@@yyyy-uv3poThe one euro/dollar sale of Western companies in Russia were a result of PR on the part of those companies who were facing public shaming (led by specific Ukrainian websites) for doing business in Russia. The ‘’sale’’ was not an act of seizure as you think but more like a wink of the eye of the Russian State towards those companies, ensuring them that the ‘’sale’’ could be reversed if they were to return and do business. Off course as the war progresses and the relations are becoming more and more tensed, that silent agreement under the table might not stand.
@@dacorum8053 It's a opposite. You kneecap any future foreign investment for decades. It's short term gain to seize some fast good joints but lose ALL potential western fast food joint investment for decades. Even if sanctions dropped, few investors will trust the russian government.
Ask Iran, Cuba, North Korea, etc. how it worked out
I don’t know how many people remember, but Russia has already seized Western assets- the Western built and financed airframes used by Russian airline operators.
No the western entities refuse to accept payments and honor contracts.
Fair
Yeah I don't care if they did, I care about the fact this will wreck the dollar as the world's currency and force a collapse
That was a Russian response to the West freezing their assets and illegally sanctioning them and they continue to respond to any new actions taken against them.
Actually, do it, if more countries see what America does they'll ditch the dollar faster
I hope you googled Russia's national external debt - they will simply call it paid which will be a net 0
Russia never had any dept since the fall of the USSR
@@hansj.hobein5762 It's not a department, it's a debt.
Assuming Russia did not invest in Treasury bonds. My German ex wife's family invested in us stocks and Treasury bonds.
Well, they NEVER PAID BACK THEIR LEND LEASE FROM WW2, so we're even now.
Good luck ever banking again for Russia.
Such a huge fan of your videos. So well put together and in depth. I wish you’d been one of my collegiate professors
See, I've always had the notion that when someone's bank account and assets get "frozen", the owner basically writes off the account on the assumption that the money will be "confiscated" in a special banking operation by the government. This is interesting to hear being debated because it's exactly what I thought was already happening for years.
“Special banking operations” 😂
People who do not understand that a Bank Stealing money from their Costumers, is a Bank that loose credibility, if they do not understand this basic concept of the economy, those people is Dumb,
Stealing this assets is Fatal to Europe, could be a Problem for Russia, but is Lethal for the European Bank system in general.
A man standing before a Judge in COURT:
JUDGE : You are charged with armed robbery of a BANK -
DEFENDANT: no YOUR HONOR - it was a special banking operation
and there is legal precedence that it is allowed by law.
It's not just the amount of treasuries china holds but their duration. China was I believe already moved mostly into short term treasuries and thus are rolling them over relatively rapidly. Which means they can get out or reduce their position relatively rapidly. So to get accurate sense you have to know both total and distribution of durations.
Ah, now that is interesting. I thought China was mostly moving out of US Treasuries and into gold because it expects to be shut out of the global finance system when it invades Taiwan.
Or it could be WW3💀💀💀
8:53 Well, having worked governmental law for a decade now I'm willing to take a gamble. Even across jurisdictions, in law a few things tends to matter:
1 - Who does what, who is the actor?
Actors are the one who can commit an 'unlawful act' as most law systems define it, and face consequences for doing so. Remember: If you do something that's not unlawful, that's your prerogative, it wouldn't be legal otherwise. You can never be punished for doing something legal.
Example: If I sell a 125K house for 230K because the market is crazy, that is okay. If I sell a 125K house for 230K because I lied and hid structural defects, that's an unlawful act and I can be sued. If they sue me for 'The market is crazy so we had to bid that high voluntarily to get it, now we demand his money', my defense will be to shrug, grin, and watch the judge berate the buyers.
2 - Which law field governs a matter?
It's pretty widely established that private law forms (contract law, civil law, etc) should not intrude on governmental law. It would be anti-democracy as private contracts could outstrip the power of elected governments. Jumping across law fields so one intrudes on the other is rare.
Analysis: The US government (actor 1) acts to seize Russian regime (actor 2) funds. This is their prerogative as per the power invested in them via elections, governed under US governmental law.
Simpletons (actor 3) who still had money in Russia did so of their own free will, likely a profit or tax evasion motive. The theft of that is under Russian governmental law.
Does an act by the Russian regime (actor 2) in Russia under governmental law, create a private law obligation in the US, because the US government did something that's their prerogative under US governmental law?
No it does not. Neither the actors nor the law fields have a direct relation. What actor 1 does to actor 2, has no direct bearing on what actor 2 does to 3: That's actor 2's fault.
Unless you have a signed contract by the US state secretary saying 'We feel obligated to compensate you for you perpetrating tax fraud with Russian accounts, you voluntarily agree that you may sue us, we love US tax dollars going to the criminal underworld and the semi-criminal level of international business'.
Simpletons sueing the US government for losing their tax defrauding Russian account should fail, should probably be marked as malicious litigants, and should be sanctioned in the legal sense. I've long argued to disbar lawyers who take on such meritless cases.
I heard a real life story about a one time cost. A couple decages ago the New Orleans Police forces was threatening to go on strike shortly before Mardi Gras. That, off course created a mild panic (if there is such a thing). Then the police made the strategic mistake of actually going on strike. And the city got down to the job of what to do about the problem and the police lost all their leverage and public attention. As a proverb you might say; Leverage is like a hostage.
Imagine your trusted bank changing the rules and taking your money; looking at you Canada. The affect this would have international commerce would last for generations. Any penalty levied against Russia must come from a legal or governing body that is more broadly representative of the world. Not just the US House of Representatives.
Like the UN? Hilarious! They can't even declare a pandemic when people all over the globe are dropping like flies... because it might offend China... LOL!
you nailed it. I really do not understand why people are so Dumb to celebrate that action, The lost of Confidence , in a Fiat-currency system , is Fatal to the EuroClear.
only Chinese and another Asian countries like petrogulf monarchs, could celebrate this decision, because they have their own banks, and will take good from this stupid European decision.
the real frustratin thing is the ignorance of the people watching them celebrating with the comments, and this people are from European countries!!!! they will become the victims of that stupid decision.
As the Ruskies did when seizing western assets? 🤡
Right, let's bring it in front of UN security council.
Wait, who are the 5 veto powers again?
It’s all about the money, honey.
Yes. It’s always been about the money. The US doesn’t have to use use any military muscle to invade or fund revolution in foreign countries to allow American corporations to extract wealth from foreign lands; now they can just steal foreign assets held in their country.
This 300 billion Russia assets in the west, was deliberately left in the west for this purpose so that the third world can see that the west can seize any country’s assets, if they do not follow western interests. It is in fact a cheap amount of money for Russia to “spend “ to snowball dedollarization. This is why BRICS+ will become more important in future decades, especially if they introduce a digital currency.
As well, Russia and China have shown that it is possible, in a multipolar world to survive US sanctions with their support. It is evident now, that as more African nations throw the yoke of western exploitation, by ousting pro-western governments through coups, they can rely on the support of Russia/China for military security and economic development.
The 300 billion is a poison pawn gambit left by Putin for this purpose. He could have repatriated the funds prior to invasion but did not.
As well, the assumptions in the video are that Ukraine has a chance of winning this war against Russia; there was never a chance without NATO committing troops on the ground and more powerful weapons. Ukraine will simply run out of manpower in a war of attrition, and these limited weapons will not tip the balance of war. Most of the Russian casualties in the early part of the war were irregulars, conscripts from prisons, using old military Soviet era equipment. They did not even commit their full armed forces. The Russians have also held back their full arsenal which they might deploy in the event of NATO direct intervention.
American aid is book value of replacement of mothballed equipment sent to Ukraine. Not worth the storage cost.
all this war, was only about Money, never was about freedom or democracy, or the Usual Lies, United States invented since Vietnam, it always had been about using War as an Scheeme of making money.
It's not 'theft', it's a totally legal financial annexation
The thing is the roadblock is actually not the Russians or their response, but the downstream implications. Take at the look at the list of the largest sovereign wealth funds in the world. Notice what countries are on in the top? Saudi Arabia, China, Kuwait, UAE all sitting on trillions of dollars, all with shady human rights record. If Europe decides that a war in which they are not part of is enough of a justification to seize assets, then suddenly all of those countries' wealth is liable to be seized. (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE literally invaded Yemen, China and Taiwan). There could be a chilling effect in which those countries might decide to deprioritize Europe relative to the rest of the world.
Why does that matter and why are the Americans less afraid of it? Well Europe has been struggling for a long time of their capital markets being second fiddle to the US capital markets. Companies large and small are ditching European exchanges to go to America, start-ups are decamping to the US because it is easier to get funding, etc. If the Saudis, Chinese, Kuwait and UAE governments of the world decide Europe is not even worth to hedge against US political risk, then Europe is permanently dooming it own capital markets.
You share my concern. This action could have the unfortunate effect that it props up something like BRICS or another competitor to the US hegemony.
@@destroyerkuroshiokaiBRICS is a meme, there is no actual competition
Dude. This is literally just doom mongering. Europe will do just fine. And if China invades Taiwan, nah shit this will happen to them to. This not new information for any country.
Also, you are incorrect. The biggest wealth fund in the world is Norway. You don't see Norway shaking. Why? Because Norway doesn't abuse the rules of the Global Financial System. A financial system without enforced rules is a system investors fear.
The reaction of Gulf countries quickly followed the asset freeze, namely, they do not cooperate with other sanctions, or evade cooperation. UAE became an important intermediary for Russia, KSA became a major customer for oil products. OPEC+ cooperation seems to tighten. It does not help that they were routinely vilified in Congress, so the perspective of asset freeze for them was not absurd. The question is if that was one-time cost, so seizure makes no further difference, or not. I think it increases the risk of a breach between the West and the Gulf resembling 1970-ties, the Western role in Gaza is deeply unpopular there, the implicit threat of asset seizure may convince the elite to follow the popular opinion.
@@Brent-jj6qi That's the thinking that brought us where we are today.
Sieze US assests all over the world to provide assitance to Iraq to adress damage resulting from the unlawful invasion by the US ? I mean we can use this logic in many cases i don't think world economy works that way but we will see.
Considering the US never tried to claim the territory you’re either a moron or a Russian troll.
Secondly, the world owes the US for the current era of stability. They all blame the US when we don’t act and then blame us when we do, so no wonder we don’t care what anyone else thinks.
china might use the legal precedent and seize all US factories next time the US illegally invades... and we all know that happoens at max every 3 years
Guess who controls the global economy though numbnuts
Why do you think the US gov doesn’t want to allow private citizens to sue Saudi Arabia for 9/11? Or why it never signed onto the ICC? 🙃
But to answer your question more directly: Geopolitics is all about enforceability. The world could try to seize US assets, but then they’d have to deal with an angry US, and nobody wants to bother with that (unless the US somehow makes a ton of enemies, in which case hoo~ boy~).
@@UGNAvalon they already had lot enemy .
Just didnt act or cant act yet
"Special banking operation" 100% has to be the official name for it, whether you're for or against.
The problem with using leverage too late is that it’s value changes with the state of the war. If russia takes half of kiev before such negotiations start, they will lose alot of value, since the outcomes of using it will be worse than using it while ukraine has more bargain power.
This leverage is a power multiplier during negotiations, not a flat amount.
William a very good video demonstrating the ebb and flow of Sequestrated Cash as well as the dangers associated with it. Thank You. Congratulations on your Peer Review.
Fantastic explanation of expectations versus reality of asset seizure.
I like the "special banking operation", it sounds somewhat familiar.
Yes, Lines on maps!👍 Great video William. I enjoy it every time
300 billion in exchange for whole of Ukraine seems like a fair trade.
It's not Theft, it's a Special Banking Operation! 😂
Thats not going to give other nations a reason to join BRICS at all
BRICS is one giant meme
@@nuggets1833 its actually a pretty big club, and you aint in it
@@r.m2072 Some day soon you will realize its a club of countries taking the piss on Russia, go look up how much Russia has invested vs the rest of them, go look at their plans, go get some actual info about BRICS, it's actually comedy gold, some "partners" of Russia (nope) literally bleeding it dry while Russia cheers to you indoctrinated lot about forming a new currency that no other countries have any interest in trading 🤣
Its like monopoly money but Russia gives it value and the rest of BRICS are laughing their ass off trading it back to their local currency, economic warfare right under your noses but you're too busy cheering to realize 🤷♂
@@r.m2072 thank god
Haha no way! Putin pulling coins off a massive frozen piggy bank? The Willy Span Picture Cache just keeps on giving!
Author ignores the other side of the Balance Sheet. Western Investors have roughly $600 bln of Russian assets. Roughly 300 bln of that is Equities and Bonds while another half is private Debt and private Equity think of Oil megaprojects. It seems both sides have significant exposure, but Western frozen assets in Russia get hardly any coverage in the press. I used Brookings Institute stats would be curious if there is another source for the numbers.
I almost had a seizure hearing that word so often, so I will refer to it as a 'special banking operation' from now on. That option sounds the best to me.
This money has already been written off by Russia and figured into financial analysts models. Seizing it will, however, provide a strong incentive for any entity not entirely 'pure' according to the EUs alleged 'values' to park its money elsewhere. Hello BRICs
that's not true, putin is crying already about the money.
@@jaypaige7550 in what? NAFO stick rub fest?
@@jaypaige7550 wrong
Yes, the beacon of stability that is South Africa would be a better place to park money, sure.
@@Merces69You're trolling if you're acting like BRICS even means anything, let alone that nations that have money would ever invest that in the South African Rand or Indian Rupee over USD and Euros.
And that line Russia crossed wasn't arbitrary, it was invading it's sovereign neighbor who that guaranteed they would not when signing the Budapest memorandum.
Per that memorandum:
Signatories are to
"Refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of the signatories to the memorandum..."
Congrats on your publication! I definitely appreciate your academic expertise in your videos so I'm glad your videos gave back a little to your academic side as well.
Great examination of potential uses and costs! Complex gamble!
I prefer ethics and virtuous international laws to lines on maps.
For anyone struggling with the concept that the cost of war decreases for Russia if Ukraine gets frozen assets, you can think of it another way. Think of the unseized frozen assets as a benefit or incentive. Russia is incentivised to end the war to the tune of 300 billion dollars. Giving this to Ukraine removes Russias incentive to end the war.
The greatest leverage is in threatening to give it to Ukraine but keeping it frozen to stay as an incentive to negotiate.
A possible 3rd option I've not heard could be to keep the 300 billion dollars frozen but adjusting it to the rate of dollar inflation so the incentive or effective cost of war stays about the same for Russia, and then any increase in value of the assets beyond the rate of dollar inflation could be given to Ukraine.
Russia has seized a lot of western assets as well as western companies abandoned Russia when Russia was sanctioned.
Russia doesnt really care they would be idiots to expect the money back after going so far
Soooo you do realize there are 1000s of speeches online of Putin trying to initiate peace agreements and 1000s of American politicians screeching like insane banshees right? And you do realize that other world citizens watch ALL the worlds news and see the hypocrisy…and at least 75% of the world population don’t think America is as great as Americans think they are….you’re only 4.5% of the world citizens….extreme hubris you all have….more countries will want little to nothing to do with you all very soon….it’s already happening….
Cope harder 🤣
Of course tube removed my comment 😅😅….no “standards” broken…stop fooling yourselves….lol
Phil Mason AKA Thunderf00t had a TH-cam project about alkali metals that turned into an article in Science in 2020. He even acknowledged his audience and Patreon supporters in the article itself. So no, that's not unprecedented.
Heck yes! Congratulations on being included among peers in a journal; always good stuff!
NATO could’ve done this like way earlier but chose not to because if seizing does ever happen, the consequences would be devastating to financial stability, security and eventual downfall of US dollar. Beside the weapons can be replaced but what can’t replace is Ukrainian manpower and without manpower you are doomed even if you receive $1 trillion
A calculation the Russians also need to make. Their demographics aren’t so hot.
@@harleyb.birdwhisperer whatre you talking about? They have a massive garrison
@@harleyb.birdwhispererlol only like 3-4 times the population of Ukraine.
they are NOT paying the entire 300 BILLION, Only the INTEREST on the 300 Billion.
@@lacasadelvideojuego3880 USSR defeated the Third Reich in WW2 with only 3x the population and even then so by using literal meat shield stratergies
Sounds like this is the same as with small nuclear weapons, they're strongest when they are not used, but have a potential of being used
As a Canadian, I feel I need to interject about our position on the "Spectrum of Dodginess". The place you set us clearly was "Peacetime Canada", as everyone knows "Wartime Canada" would make Vlad Tepes of Wallachia say "woah, chill."
Take it. Take it. Take it. Take it. Take it. Take it. Take it. Take it. Take it. Take it. Take it. Take it. Take it. Take it. Take it.
lines on maps
Lines on Banks…
lines on graphs
Hey babe wake up a new William Spaniel video just dropped
either this or "I'm a simple man, I see ZZZ, I click" 🥱
Ugh why don't you just marry him if you like him so much and let me sleep. I have Pilates in the morning remember.
insane glazing
Your wife has a boyfriend and you know it!
@@PanchoRivers-fo8tu And his name is William Spaniel.
DAMN YOU BILLLLLLLYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!
In Russia you are obliged to call it a special banking operation
207 b in Euro,67b US, 37b Pounds,36b Yen,19b Canadian,16b Australia,1 B SwF,1.8SSP, these are sovereign bonds, and current interest on the Euro 207b 5 billion are held for legal fees, Currently 107 billion have been nationalised in RF and ongoing.
The morally correct choice is obvious and I'm amazed this still a debate.
It is still a debate, sadly, because there are people who think morals are what happen to other people.
That might be true, however the morally correct choice might not be the correct strategic choice.
Morally and strategically correct. At this point giving Ukraine 300 billion to buy arms would devestate Russia militarily. The world's grey area actors will still keep their money in the west because western institutions still add value in ways the alternatives do not. China is already heavily incentivized to provide alternative banking structures. If they could, they would, but they are in no place to do so right now.
"It will change the invasion"
...
-Yeah right! 😘
Thsnk you William. Much appreciated
Outstanding - you seem to be in good form! We even have the after book plug joke back in. Additional bonus points for the jokes about special banking operation and more.
Oh - and I thought the analysis was great too.
The book segway is getting smoother every video
Neat.
Segue, baby. Segway is the two-sheeled thingie. 🙂
bro,why u have same avatar pic?
Many nations are selling their dollar bonds and buying gold or saving their currency like Japan and China.
Yes that will continue to accelerate. The dollar is finished and every body knows it.
@@johnbodman4504 What are you planning to transact in... gold bars? LOL!
Um, China's broke. Evergrand's debt is equal to the US debt. Then there's Country Garden...
50% of China's manufacturing is down.
Many nations are selling their dollar bonds and buying other assets denominated in dollars. Or if they are selling their dollars to someone else, that someone else is buying dollarized assets. That's just how national accounts work, but I realize someone with the handle "multipolarworldorder" probably isn't interested in acknowledging that.
“A special banking operation?” Priceless!
Belgium has started giving the seized Russian money to Ukraine a couple of months ago. They anounced they are doing this because people where angry that they where funding Ukraine with Belgian tax money
Do you imagine if Winterfell saved money to invade Kingslanding, but save it with the Lannister? What would be the most logical thing to happen?
The Lannister doing a special banking operation
You want the "soviet empire" back? Sure, you can have it just like it was in the late 80s.
Weidly, Putin seems to think those times were great!?🤔
“Special banking operation”😂😂
One way could be also to use e.g. $1 billion each week. That will not lose the leverage of whatever is remaining while still contributing significantly to defending Ukraine. I think it would add a bit of sense of urgency for russia for ending the war, as they would be bleeding money all the time when they drag on the war. It might also make it easier to deal with the negative consequences of seizing the assets.
Interesting that Switzerland doesn't have a measurable amount of the Russian overseas sovereign wealth.
Yeah, also just googled it and I get figures from 7.5 to about 9 billion. That's probably not enough for switzerland to work with NATO on this. Sending the russian money to ukraine seems to just be a bad move for switzerland to make(stategically not morally bad)
They do, held in Chocolate Reserves
Hehe, the money is hidden there - means you wouldn’t know how much it actually is or to whom it belongs.
They do, but they are hesitant to release it because they’re still worried about reparations from World War II. It’s time to get with the program and start living in THIS century, Switzerland
Too busy counting gold teeth in their vaults
17:35 if the seizure does not in fact create bargaining leverage, and here it does not, you might as well impose the one time cost and seize.
You're literally calling for the west to destroy its own financial system. This would be legalized theft. Theres no other way around it. It is theft pure and simple.
A “Special Banking Operation” is the plot summary of “Heat”
more like "National Lampoon's Officially Legal Financial Annexation"
I would call it an emergency strategic absorption of funds.
Here’s an Question:
What would be better for Ukraine in the long run:
⚪️Donating ALL of the frozen money to Ukraine (give or take $300 Billion) in one huge lump sum, and thus saving their NATO Allies that much in donations for the next while, but potentially opening the door to a slew of nasty future complications?
⚪️OR Donating the totally of said sum’s collecting interest from since the day it was frozen, and continuing to do so until the day the war is concluded either way, giving Ukraine Less money up front BUT giving them a steady lifeline of money that could possibly eclipse the initial sum if the war drags on long enough anyway, without also opening the can of worms the first option would entail?
The first helps Ukraine reach total victory, the second helps with negotiating peace with Russia in a military stalemate.
@@injest1928
I have an idea that can help do both:
Have Ukraine receive the accumulating side money, but ALSO throw in an additional 100 Million from the frozen assets themselves for every month of the war. This gives Ukraine a decent amount of money in the long term AND pokes Russia in the side every month with the knowledge that their own assets are slowly bleeding into Ukraine’s pockets to save them from the war said assets were supposed to fund, without going full overkill. It’d be like being forced to watch individual grains of sand from an hour glass fall… Drop Drop Drop, Drop Drop Drop.
The west has been way too unreliable to think they won’t renege on any ‘long term’ agreement …,Bird in hand and like that ….
@@injest1928 total victory over a nuclear state?
@@injest1928 neither will result in Ukraine's victory. Ukraine doesn't have man power to fight Russia. Every Russian over the age of 18 has 2 year military experience, and tons of poorer rural folks to go join the military. Most Ukrainian men that are fighting right now are your ex plumbers and ex electricians in their 40s and 50s. They are fighting vs Russian 20 and 30 year olds.
I'd call it a "special line of credit" - Special because it will never be paid back to Russia.
Doci ce tenkovi u evropu po novac
@@brankosavic632lmao
@@brankosavic632 but how will their production be financed?
@@brankosavic632Got the money for ammo, spare parts, crew and fuel to use those magic tanks as anything other than target practice for NATO? Haha
@@brankosavic632 Koplja će ruske tenkove pretvoriti u staro gvožđe. Opet. (Google translate used).
I will never stop watching this channel
Its called not seizing, it’s thieving. It’s not USA or Europe money. They are only banking, which one Russia gives it own money for interest. Now banks forget about that customer rule the banks, not vice versa. But as russian a said only Great Thanks for this decision. Now our money goes in our economy and we are having boom in our production capacity in all areas.
300 BILLION dollars?! Ukraine might try to buy a Ford class carrier...
Or some villas in coastal Italy
@@joek600Russians love that. But no more 😢.
😂😂😂😂😂
@@Just_another_Euro_dude all the scum love nice villas, the point is on whose money they get it. Btw cutting the wings of the Russian oligarchs who had assets abroad and influenced local politics was a blessing for Russia. Now they are forced to invest their money at home and play nice
They break it, they pay it.
US broke it and stole it
What about American governments pay Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and many other countries. They owe trillions of dollars. Warmongering Hegemony
that's a ridiculous and short sighted take...what if they say " they took our 300 billion " now we'll break the equivalent to 900 billion and confiscate their assets as well, not funny, isn't it? but I doubt they are stupid enough to do that, posible consequences of duing this will be that the world will lose confidense in our financial system, hence the united state will become poorer as the world realize they don't need to use our fiat money.
This is some pretty short-sighted logic.
Edit: Didnt check the name, bad bot...
This should've been the government response when a train carrying chemicals derailed and contaminated an entire town.
The problem is that you could feasibly have a decade-long court battle over the exact amount of money that the railway company should pay for each plot of land.
Congrats for your publication!
You know what they say.
"Investing comes with risk. Prior performance doesn't guarantee future outcomes. "
OK to take it to aide Ukraine
💙💛
Congrats on your publication 🎉
You have forgotten one problem Mr Spaniel, the main part of that assets are in the EU and EU Comission and EU Parliament lawyers were too clear with Comission and Parliament, seize those assets would be illegal unless they declare war against Russia, and doubt they will do that, because if they do that EU would fall from within
You really don’t get the EU do you? They do what they want, if they want that money they won’t let lawyers get in the way.
@@shintaiden no, they'll not because that would be a problem for our politicians, seems its you who don't get EU
17:00 That is just a bad argument.
Yes, once the cost is imposed, you cannot impose it again.
But it having been imposed still and continuously alters all other considerations.
Russia still has more incentive to stop a war at any point after seizure than it had before seizure, because they have less funds to prosecute a war.
Just because its not a button you can hit or a concession (as in, not seizing) that you can make, it still has effects into any negotiation.
Depending on the negotiation, you can also still impose the cost again.
"1T of reparations, of which 300B are already considered paid"
is very different from "1T of reparation, to be paid in full by moscow".
14:23 as a long time Irish subscriber this is the best mention of Ireland yet
BRICS, a golden opportunity!!!!!!!!!!!! Take it.
They would, if not for the I-India. For all the financing of the war that India allegedly did by buying discounted Russian crude, it is STILL very very WARY of China. As was evident in the 2020 border clashes. If it would be, it would be more like a "Eurasian common currency" Russia+China+ASEAN.
BRICS was a mutual fund scam. Fidelity emerging crap holes.
So the whole of Europe still using Russian roubles to buy some Russian gas aren't funding the war. Only india is.
I can't wait for Europe and usa to seize and take the Russian funds.
85% of the people on earth in the global south will simply fall to the brics currency. In 50 years Europe will be like Africa and Africa will be like Europe. I used to think Europeans has foresight but you have elected the worse leaders who will take Europe to the third world. The global majority already have seen the hypocrisy of usa and Europe in Gaza Taiwan and Ukraine so BRICS currency backed with Gold and two world powers China and Russia backing it, since the west always want to be the school bully the school is beginning to turn on the bully and the seizure will fast forward it.
@@Grand-Rose😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Ah yes, Brazil where machine gun fire into favelas is a common policing action, Russia whom is not a wealthy nation, India who dislikes China and doesn't trust Russia as well as not being interested in making enemies. China who will not tolerate any power being in the hands of people outside China and makes up around 77% of BRICS economy. Finally south Africa a literal failed state that can't maintain electricity or clean water utilities even in their own capital.
What a powerful club of losers they are
"special banking operation" i spat out my coffee lmao
Has anything like this ever happened before to any person/country or entity??? While this will be a major blow to Russia and a breath of fresh air to Ukraine I fear this could have unforseen ripples that really shake up our markets. I could just be a worry wart here but this seems to be a much bigger deal then they are letting on.
How do you even find an image with a literal frozen piggy bank?😂
Can you take a little every month the war goes on?
That was his point about the synergy between ordinary everyday inflation and only seizing the interest. Doing it this way is somewhat parallel to seizing a little bit of the principle each month.
Now let's talk about how this will change the global market.
Most countries will withdraw their assets from Western countries if they can be easily confiscated 🤷♂️
Spot on
Yes, I'm sure they'll withdraw their investments from the wealthiest and most stable nations on earth, and put them into unstable shit holes like Russia or China
Africa already asked for their gold back
No they won’t. Cool story though.
@@teetone3679 Africa wont get their gold back. Most likely they will use more printed US dollars. Lol
Thank you for ensuring widest possible access to peer reviewed data.
I think this would be a terrible mistake. As you pointed out correctly, the consequences are not really predictable. However, everybody should be aware that in a worst case scenario this could have catastrophic effects, such as that interest rates for western debts (which in many countries are already at a critical level) skyrocket.
I understand the urge to punish Russia and in turn to help Ukraine. However, the relation of the benefits (in the bigger picture even the complete 300 billion in assets are not so much) to the possible damage, a meltdown of the western dominated financal system, is just insane, even if the risk is relatively small.
The impact on financial system is overblown because it is being done in retaliation to an military invasion. Most countries aren't going to be doing any invasions within the memory period of the financial system. It doesn't affect China's unwinding from treasuries which it will want to do anyway before invading Taiwan. The advantages of being a reserve currency are going to disappear over time, as countries decide which side of the new cold war iron current they reside on, or whether they are going to bargain based on straddling the line. Really, this analysis should be done on what the impacts are on Biden vs Trump. Both goals and re-election.
you are wrong. reputation does not care about reason because you can cook up any reason you want. once you start cooking, NO ONE WILL BELIEVE YOU AGAIN. imagine if your friend borrow money from another friend who is beating his wife, and he said I am not going to return him his money because he is a wife beater. you are not a wife beater so you will lend me money right? will you lend said friend money? THINK ABOUT IT CAREFULLY.
Well seeing as how the entire global south and 85% of the world pop is on the side of Rus defending against the c 1a and pent putting nuqes on their border, they really don’t care abt western “reasons” all they see is a highly illegal seizure. Afghan, Venez, now Rus. That was the last straw. The us stepped to the big dog and r getting checked hard, seizure or no. The death knell of the u$d is tolling, ch is shedding treasuries like a bad habit.
@@lagrangewei How many times countries gone off of gold standard and back on in the past? How many times have countries defaulted on international loans or solemn treaties? What countries have been sworn enemies and later become allies? Reputation, neither positive or negative, last forever.
People insist that foreign dictatorships will pull their investments if the rules of the law based order have their consequences for breaking those laws be things like this, but where are they going to put it? What alternative exists that isn't more likely to just outright steal it? It was put there in the first place for a reason.
These people say China, and to that: And you think the CCP wont seize it over something like their leader depicted as Winnie the Pooh?
The current thought is China backed but Indian run or something coming out of BRICS. I read that 70 foreign dictatorships buy US weapons so if enough go Russian, Chinese that probably would be the capital/buy in to create a new system.
Just heard BRICS has it's own banking and currency.
@@Jeremy-WC True west is not in best condition, mostly because of lack of decisive people with strong ethics, but even then would China even want to deal with Russia, or will they do their own special military operation in Siberia ( which they have more claim on then Russia on Ukraine ) ? No matter how you put it, Putin has basically went for MAD with Ukraine. Even if he brought all Russians to Ukraine, he'd be hard pressed to maintain order and he'd have to leave noone in Russia
@@jakubrogacz6829 Your reasons are why I doubt Russia plans to conquer all of Ukraine Perhaps everything to the Dnipro river and Odessa but they will want an area they can deport loyal Ukrainians to. Their goal will be to destroy the Ukraine army and force a surrender. Since joining Nato requires no territorial disputes whats left of Ukraine wont be able to join NATO meaning neutral territory. As for China and Russia don't expect a break in their alliance until the US loses the ability or will to project power in Asia.
This will force other countries to dedollarise their assets. And it will further put pressure on gold market. And we will be back to square one.
From the point of view of Russia, that money is gone so any future actions is not a consideration. Now the question is; what did we get for it.
What is the price of a square kilometre of land in what use to be Ukraine. Lets put it at a manageable 1 million dollar and we could see where the red line is going to be at the end of the war. We also need to add the land required to cover the military spending and we soon get to a much smaller remaining peace of land for the lucky surviving Ukrainians.
Congrats on the peer review publication. This sounds like a wonderful tool. Keep up the good work.
This is how you ensure you never get access or influence over war making industry while devaluing you monetary nutrality and credibility in currency it hurt the will of the people doing sanctioning fines and monopolization
what does that even mean
They're destroying individual Americans cash dollar trust and value proving putin wise for not allowing us & our bankers to get into a diversified Russian economy that had anything to do with war making ..
1900s structuralism even here domestically turned away from dicipline useing all 5 senses and specifically target fines taxation, suspension, sanctioning just incentiving.the worst type of people and destroying our dollar in the process.
Rehabilitating people domestic and abroad doesn't benefit us by destroying the neutrality of our monterrey system.
@XerrolAvengerII on one hand we bitch that autocracy won't open up building interdependent economic markets and on the other we do exactly why they don't trust us in the first place.
The worst thing that can be done to a real man is strip away His care taking abilities. It's worth staying poor to have the ability to throw a punch and atleast go down like a man .
Something the west has been to soft and famine about trying to build out participatory systems
@@dadsonworldwide3238have those authoritarians tried, to, not going to war and violating the treaties they signed?
Asset siezure is not a one-time cost if you do not sieze all the assets each time, then interest will gradually rebuild what you took. Then the decentive will still exist.
There are a few problems with this video.
The biggest is that Russia appears to be winning because the Ukrainians are running out of trained soldiers. If Russia makes significant territorial gains, confiscation will have two effects.
First, confiscation will incline Russia to continue rather than end the war.
Secondly, Russia is more likely to keep rather than return any territory gained as “compensation” for confiscated assets.
The result of confiscation will thus be to prolong the conflict and consequently the cost in Ukrainian lives while reducing the chances of Russia returning any land at any peace talks.
From these standpoints, confiscation is a bad idea that will prolong the war and cost more Ukrainian lives