Tesla Will Dominate These $TRILLION Dollar Markets (But Might NOT This One) | Dave Lee
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 พ.ค. 2024
- $TSLA is set to win massive markets not just in Electric Vehicles but also Robotaxi, Energy, Robotics and the holy grail General AI.
Here’s how this will happen!
But all is not so rosy. OpenAI is a direct threat to Tesla.
$TSLA investors should be aware the battle for General AI and bot supremacy
Tesla will need to ramp up their expertise in Artificial Intelligence!
Dave Lee is the host of one of the top TH-cam channels about Tesla called Dave Lee on Investing with over 230k subscribers. He was a very early investor in Tesla since 2012 and since then has made 100x his initial investments. Originally a startup founder and developer creating Apple iPhone apps, he is recently back at it again working on a new Language Learning app for kids.
Follow Dave on Twitter: @heydave7
Follow Dave on TH-cam: / @dave_lee
Time stamps:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:01:10 About Dave
00:03:25 S-Curve Adoption
00:06:21 Tesla EV Market
00:12:52 Robotaxi Market
00:20:30 Energy Market
00:31:05 Robotics Market
00:35:36 AI in Robotics
00:36:56 GPT4
00:41:13 OpenAI's Own Humanoid Robots
00:47:35 Where Tesla Uses AI
00:47:26 Tesla vs OpenAI
00:54:10 Elon's TruthAI
Let's get brighter!
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Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. All views expressed are personal opinion as of date of recording and are subject to change without responsibility to update views. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel. Neither host or guests can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Author is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date.
#Tesla #TSLA #stock #ElonMusk #investing #teslabot #technology - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
Herbert, I love your demeanor, your interaction skills, your letting your guest talk without interrupting to prove you are smart. Terrific!
Love this video, very informative. I am and will always be a Tesla stock holder. Always knew Tesla was untouchable, even for the FEDs. Very soon Tesla will be so far ahead of every car company, that Tesla can't even see them in the rear view mirror.
You're spot on! Gave these exact words a thought this morning lol. I've liquidated some funds and looking to remunerate a lump sum into the Tesla stock market before stocks rebound. Any advice? Dont want to be caught crashing bad lol.
@@josephbush Just be on the lookout for Tesla stocks with market- beating yields and shares that at least keep pace with the market long term. But for a successful long-term strategy, i recommend you seek guidance from a broker or financial advisor.
@@aureliobjm Youre right! I actually don’t base my market judgements and decisions on rumors and hear-says. It got the best of me in the year 2020 and had me holding worthless positions in the market. I had to revamp my entire portfolio through the aid of Heather, before I started seeing any significant results happens in my portfolio. Been using the same advisor since then and I’ve scaled up 876k within 2 years. Whether a bullish or down market, both makes for good profit, it all depends on where you’re looking. Thats just it.
@@scottjason2030 She should. Having a counselor is quite imperative for portfolio diversification. My advisor is HATHER LEE LARIONI. She is easily looked up and has extensive knowledge of the financial markets.
This thread sounds fake….
This planet needs more people like Dave Lee, my wife really loves his calm even disposition.
Much better interview Herbert. You let Dave talk without interruptions👏🏾👏🏾
Dave Lee is such a wonderful presenter.
I love seeing Dave being interviewed for a change - thank you!!
What a fantastic interview- two lovely, moderate, intelligent gentlemen! Thanks Herbert, thanks Dave. Great insights🙏✨
Good video btw. I hold stock in TSLA and believe it’s going to wipe out all competitors
Great interview. Dave's breath and depth of knowledge is amazing and I love his unbiased perspective on Tesla and AI. Thks Herbert for doing this.
Он не прав в своих графиках. Tesla-bot станет основой роста экономики Tesla в самом ближайшем времени!
Tesla Nuclear Fusion Batteries....
Creates and stores Electrical Energy.
I just invented it😮
Herbert - best S-curve thumbnail ever! Thanks for all the conversations you have with the community. Thanks to Dave as well!
"Infinite Demand for less expensive Energy": The future of agriculture is water desalinization, pulling water out of the atmosphere AND vertical LED light assisted growing inside structures.
We keep battling nature by trying to harvest and deploy her breathe without her permission. You can only throw sun energy and minerals around so many times before you create continental wasteland.
@@Justinlearns You are right if you are referring to factory chemical farming, but incredibly fertile biologically active soil can be renewed, and rather quickly. I say this with confidence because I and many others have done it. I was quite sick from eating GMO foods and was told I was going to die, but healthy food from renewed fertile soil saved my life.
@@Justinlearns and a constantly growing population. It is a myth that earth can sustain the level of population and upward growth and people are delusional thinking we can continue on the path we are on. I never liked the dystopian syfi movies but I grown to believe those may be our future and maybe FSD will be functional by then.
@@colinkelley6493 you may think you are not eating GMO food but almost every major food source we eat has been altered in the last 10,000 years by our species.
@@robwalker4548 You do not understand what GMO is. They have genetically modified plants to produce ROUNDUP in every cell of that plant. When we eat GMO we are eating ROUNDUP. The FDA has corruptly signed off on it without any testing. our government is corrupt. Among other things ROUNDUP produces leaky gut syndrome which is the base cause of almost all autoimmune diseases, inflamation, diabetes, autism. There is a long list. Genetically produced Roundup is a new technology, not in any way comparable to traditional plant breeding. It has been estimated that the health of half of the world has been affected. Monsanto has lost over 20,000 lawsuits in Europe where it was proven GMO ROUNDUP causes terminal cancer. Food producers are not required by the FDA to list GMO in their ingredients. 70% of the corn and soy and canola grown in the USA is GMO. If a product has corn, soy or canola, and does not say "Organic" or "Non-GMO" you can be pretty sure it has Roundup. Try finding a salad dressing at any grocery without soy oil. I only buy organic from reputable companies. But mostly I cook from scratch out of my own organic garden. I myself almost died from it. My doctor gave me three months to live. It can be reversed but people have to know how to do it.
The s-curve graph is misleading because it seems to suggest they have to be sequential but they can be done simultaneously. I think the graph is just presented how it is to show the scale of each curve relative to the others
yes, that is what it is. Too many being overlapped over one another would be too cluttered and confusing.
Thank you so much for your show! Keeps things positive
Thank you for this great presentation. It was a wonderful summary. I have been with David Lee for many many years and watch almost all of his presentations. They are very enlightening.
Thank you for putting this together.
Herbert coming through with 🔥 content on a quiet Sunday…awesome, thank you!
On investor day Q&A Elon said they’d be increasing their compute by an order of magnitude by the end of the year! And ANOTHER order of magnitude by the end of next year!!! A 100x increase! This is crazy.
I wonder if part of the reason is to have the compute to train their own language models?
Great interview Herbert and Dave, thanks for uploading
Great convo guys, no surprise given this channel and *iconic* Dave Lee. 😎
Tesla needs more Service and Collision centers. You should not have to drive to the next state to get your vehicle repaired.
The danger with AI or simple automaton that does not even use robots is all the many jobs that replace workers or down grades the work to lower paid jobs. With increasing populations and decreasing well paid jobs the political upheavals that will follow will be horrible. Before I retired I help designed office automation that eliminated 60 well paid jobs and another 60 jobs became lower paid with less benefits but required a college degree that was not really needed. Even my own position was not filled after I retired. I see no one addressing the loss of job opportunities with good pay and benefits. There will be some new jobs but those will not off set the job losses.
Hence Trump's appeal. I hate Trump, but he is talking to the people who feel threatened. Their voices are important.
@@tomkennedy3123 they should feel threatened by Trump. I notice it tends to be people supporting him that he takes their money for his own use and then acting like them calling everyone names.
The more I gain in awareness I realize I know nothing. Any time my ego gets out of hand, all I need to do to rediscover my humility is to listen to intelligent people. Thanks for the knowledge lesson.
Hello Herbert and Dave. Thank you for this great discussion.
Great convo
absolutely! would be great to see a chat between you and dave again👍🙂
Thank you both. This was amazing 😊
Tesla has the leading edge on making money = hiring best talent out there.
1:40 “Over 230 subscribers” yes, by a few hundred thousand 😂
Great catch 😂
Haha!
Herbert and Dave, Thanks for helping us to understand all things Tesla.
Enjoyed this convo
Think bot will be solved before FSD due to risk factor on FSD. When BOT hardware/software is good enough, the BOT can be put to work. FSD needs to be PERFECT before it can be released
I agree. A low speed, low weight, low risk bot, with time to process information and actions, will be much easier than FSD for high risk, high speed, high weight bot/cars negotiating other unpredictable high speed, high weight with high latency humans signed off by a driving examiner as qualified for FSD.
@@anthonybanayat9841 i disagree. I think the problem with your statement is liability. No one wants to accept responsibility, when liability is easily traced. If autonomous vehicles are somewhat more safe than humans, it implies they could make a mistake. When that mistake occurs, who is liable? The owner, manufacturer, no one? That will be the issue with approving autonomous driving. My guess is Tesla will leave it on babysitting mode, until liability is on the cars owner. I’ll also guess additional insurance will be required, and owners will have to buy that. Over time we may discover this is all an unnecessary concern. But no one is going to jump out an accept all liability for something they don’t control.
@@anthonybanayat9841 - If lawmakers were logical and markets fair, then yes. However, as long as Tesla does not pay its tithing to advertisers/media/lobbyists/lawmakers, those in power will continue to skew the market, bringing us all down in order to temporarily prop up their buddies.
Great video, thank you 🙏🏻and thanks to Dave
Awesome interview Herbert. I enjoy hearing from Dave as usual but I agree with your perspective as well. Elon was ahead of the curve in starting OpenAI and was the one first warning us of the dangers of AI so I have to think that he has secretly been working on/thinking of this since then.
Thanks so much
great content guys, upvoted!!!
Dave is Brilliant!
Awesome information! I’ve seen a few comments here and there where someone says “ Tesla’s are old, Model 3, Y, S, X are old” , even after Tesla investor day where they meticulously explained future engineering and manufacturing innovations for the next generation models. I really didn’t want to comment and go through all of that with them, I would rather let them go on and think that if Tesla doesn’t come out with new ground up or redesigned models every 3 years then they are old, but it’s so much more than that, and like Dave explained the Model 3/Y are the present and how much more can they be improved and how many more can they sell, especially at $35,000 to $60,000
Dynamic duo, u guys should do more of these 💥
So much value in this video, thank you both!
Thank you, Herbert and Dave, for your outstanding coverage and information on Tesla.
Great video. Much respect & admiration for Dave
If we assume exponential growth in GBT then all hell breaks loose in a couple years not 10-15 as Dave says.
If we assume Musk ever tells the truth, same result.
@@urbanspaceman7183 really?.... correctly projected 500k EVs in 2021 proving doubters wrong.....landing rockets several times a week.
TY for sharing, but, I would love to get James Douma's opinion about Dave's ideas/opinions .... but , this said, TY again
❤😅this was a really great interview. It will be an exciting future. Hope it goes well.
20:50 Priorities vs Wants. Agree energy will lead FSD/Robotaxi by both timelines & revenues, by far.
I disagree on Tesla not being ahead on FSD, and other people just find AI and it is better then Tesla!!!!
This will make Elon kick their ass for sure!!!!
Not sure I quite understand Dave’s analysis of Tesla and AI. Many companies are producing Large Language Model AIs but few other companies have a vision based AI that can allow AI to eventually become embodied as opposed to being accessed by tapping sentences into a GUI. Tesla can integrate an LLM into its cars tomorrow to control, say, in car functionality but no one else has the DOJO stack. As soon as they launch a trial Teslabot they’ll start the data flywheel collecting data in a general physical environment - few others will have that and ultimately it will be far more valuable than an LLM - IMHO
Дейв прав в другом - интеграция с языковыми моделями КРАЙНЕ важна!
Очень жаль, что Илон не заметил выгорания Андрей Карпатый, и не предложил ему заниматься AGI (начав с языковых моделей, а далее переходя к мультимодальным) в рамках Tesla.
Я очень надеюсь, что Илон в итоге перейдет к мультимодальным моделям, начав с интеграции с языковыми моделями. В вопросах ответственного развития у меня больше доверия к Илону, чем к кому бы то ни было другому
He is the best in all areas. of his business and. he. knows why .God bless.
This cements my decision to wait for hardware 4 before buying a model y. I do t want to get stuck with last generation hardware as FSD is important to me. I realise that progress will continue and hardware 5+ is inevitable. However 4 is better than 3.
But 5 is better than 4.
That’s the thing about FSD, the next iteration is always going to be the real deal, then it isn’t. That’s being playing out for years.
When Dave said "Elon is pissed because...", I really wanted to hear what the rest of that sentence was going to be. Great interview! We all got a lot out of it. Thanks to both of you!
It is interesting to observe that even people like Dave who was able to see the possible success of Elon and Tesla much earlier than others struggle to imagine Elon and other experts he will choose to work with could be again successful in the area of AI 🙂
Think of all the senses we do not have large language models for... even vision depends on language but it also include sound, touch, texture, and combos of the same.
Fantastic content!!! I know Microsoft has a 49% interest in GPT-4... My question is will it go public/IPO anytime soon?
Herbert is becoming my drug. I have withdrawals when I don’t see a new video. Then feel calmed when I get my hit 😂
Thank you Herbert and guests informing us as to the inner workings of tesla
I need to invest in this Open/Closed Ai!
It might be that energy, primarily grade scale will happen before Robert taxi.
I think training AI language models will become cheaper and easier so Elon will have time to get into this.
What does OpenAI have that others (Google , Tesla) don’t? They discovered LLM can do amazing stuff first; they used commodity data; They may have proprietary NN architecture, but how long can they others would discover similar or better NN architectures?
Hope dave is doing OK and his family
Dave Lee, when will AI make value judgments? Such as, rank the presidents: bad, better, best.
The next gen car is a robotaxi that can serve billions of people. That's its primary mission. It may not even have a steering wheel, and it may not be available for sale to the public.
regarding autonomous driving, you can look at the history of major car makes and count the fatalities and you will notice that those companies are willing to lose some of their customers through misadventure and negligence(?)
Great points re: the high stakes nature of FSD tech. Winner takes most is a more probable outcome because it necessarily matches with world-leading safety and Tesla produces the safest cars. They have to for regulators to buy in to the tech. There can be no compromises on this and it’s pretty clear Tesla leadership gets that.
Yea tesla will be winner and there will be another one or two players as well. No one just leaves a market worth trillions ..
Always love listening to Dave.
AI robotics might not be an S curve at all. Or at least it will change everything extremely radically.
Solar roof, no 2 roofs are the same and can only be installed during day time. Solution to this, houses oriented in optimum direction for the sun, and standard roof. Like the model "inverted 3", it is ok looking, mostly black or white (boring), but practical and readily available. Unlike solar roof.
Im not Financially Educated-But- Tesla 5 Products & Industries MAKES ME BELIEVER ! ?
Awesome program... I think AI has multiple S-Curves... Health, Social, Manufacturing ... Just as Energy probably does... OpenAI is dominated by Microsoft... and firms (SAP, ORACLE, Adobe... Accenture) will work to integrate CHAT-GPT to be incl in various apps. Tesla can concentrate on the S-curve in MFG, Space, FSD, Robotics that are suited to specific verticals.... I have a tech background and understand just how Microsoft reshaped the desktop, got into the enterprise, and now cloud... we know what will happen w Chat-GPT- Sam Altman is a smart guy obviously, but I hope he isn't the Moth that is getting too close to the flame...
I am sure MS is planning to take 100% control - this is their pedigree, they don't share. Sam will just fall in line with the dollars.
Too late. The smell of burning moth is strong with this one.
Some day people will view investors talking about over hyped s-curves in the same way we call people talking bull-it. Tesla today is no different now than Ford was a 100 years ago. I will not be alive in another 100 years and if anyone else is they might be ranting on about how Tesla is not going to survive.
Hi Herbert
Do you think the Cybertruck will be built "Unboxed?
I missed this one!
I’m betting that the Robo-Taxi will be the only Level 5 Tesla vehicle, it will need to include radar for specific uses.
I hear Dave saying “BasedAI” 😂
A fascinating discussion about the future of Tesla.
Looks like energy will be before fsd. The grid is 23% renewables because solar and wind became the cheapest in 2018. At the end of 2022 solar wind + battery is the cheapest. It is starting Lathrop is done.
Arg. Thinking about what I knew in December 2012 and wish I had just started buying shares 😢
Still not late I started in 2017 and still buying.
Tesla Energy:
One product currently not in their arsenal is transmission.
What would happen if they teamed up with the boringCo to build underground transmission lines?
That’s a darn good point; and transmission is ripe for disruption, mainly because utilities have for decades been combination of greedy and risk-averse. In fact, in my dreams, I can imagine Tesla getting involved with underground HTS/High-Temperature Superconductor cables to really change the paradigm. SOMEBODY has to.
So in energy, fusion could be a game changer
This is an amazing video!
The combination of Dave Lee & Herbert speaking to this topic has done a great job to gel what Tesla is all about.
It’s also why those of us who have high-conviction have understood and believed in the company from early on. I’m sharing this with friends who invest in Tesla but haven’t fully understood why it’s so great!
Not to say Tesla is “perfect,” and certainly not to say that Elon *himself* is “perfect,” but presently I can’t imagine a better company to invest in for our future!
I think Model X and 3 still have more market share to take from ICE as the latter collapses..
When we getting the merch Herbert?
Tesla can just dump googles open library scans into Dojo. The world's greatest books as a base.
The potential of AI in FSD is far better than human capabilities (reaction time and using the right solution for a particular driving problem, eliminating human errors, etc.).
Dave, do you think Elon is actually using AI in his decision making right now. Is it playing manufacturing chess with all the other car companies? Is he using it to decide when, how much, which models to lower and raise car prices to advance market share?
That is not called AI. There are many analytical packages for pricing. Just do a quick google search. Adjusting prices on curves is trivial if you have data.
Great interview with a great guest. RE Tesla energy, right now utility scale solar desert facility power cost is 1/4 average US power cost (during the day). Adding batteries and the cost is still below US average and does not go up with inflation, so the cost advantage keeps increasing. The market is there. The technology is there. What is needed is massive energy storage (and so massive lithium mining and processing) which is within Tesla's control. But what is also needed is massive transmission lines to deliver the power to populated areas (Princeton U study has laid this out and costed it). This requires changes in government regulation that has not yet happened. It is the wart on the ass of progress. For the sake of this energy transformation and for the sake of forestalling climate change this must happen.
I don't see Tesla running away with the energy market. Building a large battery pack and the hardware to use it on the grid is not a hard business to implement. Other companies have been selling grid tie battery systems for years. Tesla may lead but I suspect there will be several other players and competition will limit profits.
The battery capacity of 10+ million Tesla's can be harnessed to store grid energy and released during high peak demands. This could be in the form of areawide grid management software - something Tesla could easily own. So for instance, power problems in California due to storms could be relieved by Tesla owners in Arizona releasing energy to the grid - and getting paid nicely for it.
Talking from experience of using my own EV I charge about once a week - meaning I alone have large unused capacity throughout the week.
@@MrTeachkids
Short of vehicle to grid, consider EV charging as a dispatchable load. There will be many people like you who will need to charge only a handful of times per month. When a utility company sees a stretch of low wind and sunshine approaching they could (for a reduced fee) charge up as many EVs as possible and then let them drift through the low generation period, cutting the need for storage and deep backup.
And for those who do need to charge during low generation periods, spread charging times in order to limit peak demand strain.
@@bobwallace9753 You certainly explained it better than I did.
Here is a schematic calculation to demonstrate this capacity. Energy stored in 50% of 10 million EV's with 60 kWh batteries is 300,000 MWh. If they all discharged over 8 hours that would provide a capacity (power) of 37GW. Current grid capacity from stored energy (i.e. mostly pumped storage) is ~22GW. PS typically discharges energy over an 8 hour period.
you are right, and making an EV isn't that hard either, but being able to do it at impressive margins is different from just being able to do it. Everyone can make an amazing ev if they just pour enough money into it, look at the lucid car, it's freaking amazing, but if you have to use 300k to make it but you are only able to sell it for 150k at best then thats not a great business. That's why tesla is running away with the market, be it EVs or energy. Launching a rocket in itself isn't that impressive either, but SpaceX made it cheaper than everyone else. Then they started to land these rocket and thus made everything even cheaper again. now they launch close to 100 times a year, more than anyone else in the industry, possible as much as the rest of the industry combined this year.
@@LunnarisLP
What many do not understand is that Elon has created companies where the most capable, the most innovative people directly drive product improvement. Often in other companies those people are buried under levels of management and isolated from each other.
Add to that the motivation to solve major problems as opposed to maximizing short term profits and you get companies that quickly pull away from other companies who stick with the old ways.
Will there be an "app" store where specific types of algos for optimus bot will be sold, math teacher algo, golf buddy algo, maybe I can buy a Rodney Dangerfield algo
I don't know if it should be done, but copyright holders or family of comedians/public figures could authorize official algos to install in optimus. You could buy your buddy a six pack of Norm Macdonald, Richard Pryor, Carl Sagan, John Wayne or other notables personality algos for his brand new bot.
Get you a testimony bot for Sundays. Subscription to great pastors from the past algos
Establishing a large language model company connected to Twitter and Tesla needs to be Elon's #1 priority right now. Buying Twitter turned out to be a huge asset for this, because integrating the early models into Twitter in a convenient way will be the best option for getting people to use it (and get invaluable training data) while it's still inferior to chatGPT.
super computer Blue Gene != Dojo
Energy storage technology is not mature now. The battery need to be cheaper, more importantly, more longevity, to be profitable in majority market.
Dave is feeding GPT4 data to make it improve.
Been Watching & Learning 2 Yrs-So-Am buying 10 Shares/ month @$150-170 ! ?
Tesla Solar is a bridge to Tesla Fusion. By the time fusion becomes practical Tesla will be the worlds most valuable company and will be more capable of scaling fusion faster than anyone else. The first Petafactory will produce fusion reactors.
GPT4 cost 4 million dollars. Stanford just announced "Alpaca" they used GPT4 to train a weak FB model and made it as smart as GPT3.5 The did it for $400. This does not bode well for the companies developing and spending early in the AI space. This includes Tesla. :(
Guys, nice talk, but Tesla Bot Optimus / AI will be much earlier contributing, not just in the 30s, 40s. So, bit puzzled bout the prios here.
Hopefully the stock price looks similar to Dave’s chart 10 years from now.
Boston Dynamics + Open AI?
In Sanskrit there is the notion that language is larger than the universe. It defines anything and everything. The word OM is the first and last syllable of the language and encompasses reality. A simple example is a table. Without the word and perception of the word “table” it’s just a bunch of sticks and wood. The word table defines it. Even more so there are a LOT of things that don’t really exist and are defined in language.
GPT gives a new definition for it. If GPT can encompass the entire corpus of text, it will encompass reality, physics, math, logic, etc. We are already seeing this materialize and once it improves it will even become, literally, larger than life. Reality itself. 🤯
Tesla AI is vision and general ! Understanding the real world 🌎 other are text Ai to vision! TESLA ALREADY DOING MORE THAN THESE😂😂😂REMEMBER DOJO! TESLA IS ALSO AI AHEAD👍👍👍
Have you seen Alpaca? It runs on a Mac air….
When will Tesla start equipping there cars with wireless charging capabilities & hardware?
true