Great video. I made a video on this myself because it shows up in many of my client conversations: people demotivated because they're convinced they're the only struggler in a world full of one-percenters! Just because they are the most visible on their media feeds! I find it so useful to be aware how this can kink our think!
By the way, that cocktail of hindisght bias, confirmation bias and survivorship bias makes every "My success story" book quite dubious. Again, great video.
"Hope" that's all you are missing......if this concept is overpowering your mind... pls remember....it's practically impossible to not to miss everything in any field.......fail, fail and succeed !...“Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.”
This is common in the success entreprenuer whatever you wanna call it space. Its to the point that I question whether if simply wanting to attain success is falling prey to the survivorship bias.
This also explains Elon Musk as potentially just a purely lucky guy out of 8 Billion people on the planet through random decisions, given all the humans making random decisions. Nothing special but an average Joe that we seem to lookup to as if some messiah...
Go ahead and find just 10 actors, let alone 1000, who were/are better looking than Brad Pitt was in his prime (25-39). And he still had the talent and experience edge over mere models.
another example of your own biases playing out because you can never explain why he really got through but because you see the success in hindsight and maybe have a affinity to him , you come up with your own narrative. for all you know he could a slept with a casting director or a producer may have confused him with someone else for a role. Whos knows???
Well if all successful people had known about this they would not even have attempted what they did. This is against the greatest human quality "hope" .Failing is okay. Don't mix statistics with human endeavor. may be alright for light bulbs,aeroplanes etc. This survivor bias is fine but not for human endeavor.
Survivor bias: I pulled this off through to all the hard work, just believe in yourself and work hard and you will make it. They are again missing what's missing, namely the things that make people fail despite adhering to all those things. Because it did not happen to them. Plus it sounds good. But I know enough people who worked with me who rose and fell. Some to economic shifts, some through bad luck, some through a single bad choice at the worst time. Some fascinating stories. And yet they are here, stuck with me guarding a museum. Not the worst job, mind you. But still, nothing compared to their "could have and have been"s. And no, just because you know of the reasons why people fail doesn't make you stop. Like downhill skiers know of the risk. They still take it. And the really good even make it back after an accident when you find out that yes, you can fall terribly too and you know what happens. So no, knowing about failure only scares the ones with weak determination to their goal... or in some case the sensible ones. But of course, you can always win the lottery in whatever you are doing. Those are the things that are mostly done out of love, like acting. But even then, people should be aware what people who failed did wrong. Because in the end, you learn that acting is a cutthroat world full of terrible people and miserable working condtions for shit pay. But of course, for a few, fame and fortune. You are hardly deterred by realities when you are younger.
This guy is just taking Nassim Taleb's books and remaking them in a general way...there is something I just don't like about that. Taleb is a genius and more and more people are following his lead.
![ไลฟ์สุ่ม iPhone 295 บาท... โกงมั้ย?[ โกงมั้ยครับ ep.97 ] | DOM](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/gdstHEE4UUE/mqdefault.jpg)
David McRaney's talk on the impact of the survivorship bias is one of the very best TEDx Talks available. Excellent!
Great video. I made a video on this myself because it shows up in many of my client conversations: people demotivated because they're convinced they're the only struggler in a world full of one-percenters! Just because they are the most visible on their media feeds! I find it so useful to be aware how this can kink our think!
By the way, that cocktail of hindisght bias, confirmation bias and survivorship bias makes every "My success story" book quite dubious. Again, great video.
"Hope" that's all you are missing......if this concept is overpowering your mind... pls remember....it's practically impossible to not to miss everything in any field.......fail, fail and succeed !...“Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.”
This has peaked an intense interest in learning more about ways I miss what's missing, and other errors in judgement.
I recommend checking out all 3 of David's books. The first 2 specifically discuss cognitive biases and self-delusions, and are delivered with humour.
What a great talk. Thank you, David McRaney, and, of course, TED(x)!
This explains the popularity of dive bars
David Mcraney great, eye opening, Tedtalk, thank you sir.
This is gold !
The classic Wald and Warplanes example. Never gets old - great talk.
it wasn't a classic when this talk came out. it had a hand in popularizing it though.
A really good example of survivorship bias was when Forest and Dan's Shrimping boat was the only boat to survive the rain storm
Absolutely fan-fucking-tastic! Can heavily relate to this.
This is common in the success entreprenuer whatever you wanna call it space. Its to the point that I question whether if simply wanting to attain success is falling prey to the survivorship bias.
Thanks. Another great lesson learn.
Wow. a TED talk the isn't just fluff and HR.
superb stuff
Thank you for this.
I understand....thank you
“You did a bang up job on this analysis…” 😂
Amazing
I've seen something like this about planes getting shot down, you can't get data from planes that don't come back
Awesome
Now apply that to history....
This also explains Elon Musk as potentially just a purely lucky guy out of 8 Billion people on the planet through random decisions, given all the humans making random decisions. Nothing special but an average Joe that we seem to lookup to as if some messiah...
止めて辞書で単語調べて頑張って見たけど、誰か日本語訳版作ってくれないかな...
Or observation selection effect
***So indexes average returns per annum are total bullshit then if you take into consideration survivorship bias. Am I right***
What's the music in the beginning?
***** Um dos temas que o David McRaney fala no livro =)
Go ahead and find just 10 actors, let alone 1000, who were/are better looking than Brad Pitt was in his prime (25-39). And he still had the talent and experience edge over mere models.
agree, the brad pitt example wasn't really a great one.
another example of your own biases playing out because you can never explain why he really got through but because you see the success in hindsight and maybe have a affinity to him , you come up with your own narrative. for all you know he could a slept with a casting director or a producer may have confused him with someone else for a role. Whos knows???
20min video for what can be said in 3mins
Wow
Yeah...
Really helpful in decision making
The Wald story is BS.
Well if all successful people had known about this they would not even have attempted what they did. This is against the greatest human quality "hope" .Failing is okay. Don't mix statistics with human endeavor. may be alright for light bulbs,aeroplanes etc. This survivor bias is fine but not for human endeavor.
Survivor bias: I pulled this off through to all the hard work, just believe in yourself and work hard and you will make it. They are again missing what's missing, namely the things that make people fail despite adhering to all those things. Because it did not happen to them. Plus it sounds good.
But I know enough people who worked with me who rose and fell. Some to economic shifts, some through bad luck, some through a single bad choice at the worst time. Some fascinating stories. And yet they are here, stuck with me guarding a museum. Not the worst job, mind you. But still, nothing compared to their "could have and have been"s.
And no, just because you know of the reasons why people fail doesn't make you stop. Like downhill skiers know of the risk. They still take it. And the really good even make it back after an accident when you find out that yes, you can fall terribly too and you know what happens. So no, knowing about failure only scares the ones with weak determination to their goal... or in some case the sensible ones. But of course, you can always win the lottery in whatever you are doing. Those are the things that are mostly done out of love, like acting. But even then, people should be aware what people who failed did wrong. Because in the end, you learn that acting is a cutthroat world full of terrible people and miserable working condtions for shit pay. But of course, for a few, fame and fortune. You are hardly deterred by realities when you are younger.
wrong
There is nothing that could be more disengaging than a TED talk.
This guy is just taking Nassim Taleb's books and remaking them in a general way...there is something I just don't like about that. Taleb is a genius and more and more people are following his lead.
You make no sendr as Taleb did not create or discover survivorship bias
Eddie Woo explains this better to his high school students.
It doesn't hurt to know the history behind what Eddie has said.