Market Bubble Popping Now? Bull Run Over Says Gary Shilling
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 พ.ค. 2024
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Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., discusses market outlook, possible deflation coming, and how the Fed is "stuck".
*This video was recorded on May 7, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
1:12 - Bull run over?
5:00 - Long-run returns
8:45 - Deflation
18:10 - AI and wages
20:55 - Fed monetary policy
23:20 - Bank failures
25:40 - Market sentiment
27:42 - 'Speculative' assets
30:26 - Career advice
#economy #investing #stocks
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FOLLOW GARY SHILLING:
Website: www.agaryshilling.com/
Twitter (@agaryshilling): twitter.com/agaryshilling
Gary shilling doesn't disappoint. it's so obvious that things are not improving. I'm looking at high-yield dividend stocks. Selling 200k worth of equities is stupid without reinvesting it. I might turn to cash soon if I don't invest it. Any particulars? (Buying bonds or CDs is not for me)
The economy and stocks are two different things these days
I also think everyone needs a Margin of Safety in their portfolios and just remember, It's time in the market versus timing the market.
The market's instability makes DIY risky. You don't need to find the next NVDA to succeed in investing. Opt for top-notch ETFs, dividend aristocrats, and a trusted advisor. I've turned $480k into 33,000 in quarterly dividends using one, a major milestone.
…maybe you should be more Blue Chip…, just say’n
@sommersalt88 I've been considering but haven't been proactive. Can you recommend your advisor? Could really use some assistance.
Our economy struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
With the US dollar losing value to inflation and other currencies gaining traction, uncertainty looms. Yet, many still trust in the Dollar's perceived safety. Worried about my $420,000 retirement savings losing value, I seek alternative security for my money.
With my demanding job, I lack time for investment analysis. For seven years, a fiduciary has managed my portfolio, adapting to market conditions, enabling successful navigation and informed decisions. Consider a similar approach.
Monica Shawn Marti is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Seriously!!!??? You are describing my three quarters of a century experience!!!!
Only we didn't have a twenty four hour news cycle or cable tv with sports package, 😮😮or a phone in our hand or a tv the size of a cinema or the assassinations of JFK, MLK, RFK, Malcolm X.... Kent State, Jackson State, Vietnam War which happened to steal three years of my life.... Thanks to tricky Dick!!! But I got out whole!!! Quite a rant....
Always look on the bright side of life.. imagine whistling
I sold my blood when I was stationed in San Diego in 71. Seven bucks a pop! To pay for a Thanksgiving turkey!!!
San Diego was beautiful!!!!!
Scholars who study the stock market’s historical performance estimate that over time, the payment (and reinvestment, and compounding) of dividends have contributed anywhere from 30% to 90% of the S&P 500’s total returns. I want to spread across $4oo k into profit yielding dividend equities but unsure of which to get into.
There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.
True. Having the right financial planner is invaluable. My portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 90% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, though this could take till Q3 2024.
Smart, If i wanted to do the same with my retirement funds too, how do i get started trading?
I've had majority of my holdings in ETFs, tech stocks and I've had 45% increase in my portfolio, especially with Nvidia P/E (price to earnings ratio) adding few others, personally, MICHELE KATHERINE SINGH take good care of my holdings.
This recommendation is coming at the right time because i am literally grasping for straws atm! I verified her online and scheduled a phone call with her.
What I don’t understand is, on one hand we are told the stock market will crash and yet on the other we are told ways of investing in the stock market. Oxymoron or paradox? I'm considering investing over $300k, but I'm uncertain about risk mitigation strategies.
Invest in real estate, ETFs and high-yield savings account
Just buy Gold and protect your assets, the stock market is a rollercoaster.
The market is not necessarily a rollercoaster if you know your way around the market, there are various opportunities in the present market to accrue good profit, If you are not too savvy with the market, just buy and hold on strong companies with good earnings, or consult with advisors on ETFs and actively managed funds.
Great gains there! mind sharing details of your advisor pleas? i've started gaining more cash flow with my employment and looking at putting money into stocks and alternative assets that can help build wealth over time
Kristin Amy Rose is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find her webpage and necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
David looks like he just got off a 3 day bender. 🤣🤣🤣
🚨SILENT🚨DEPRESSION🚨
🏆
Already in it
Greenspan is a criminal
I love Gary. National treasure
Dirty Gary
No cuts are needed at all.
Right
They will to help biden.then blame Trump when he gets in for hyperinflation.
Remember transitory lmao
Can we get rid of the scam bots on these shows pushing phony services like this Tobias Hawke. To many scam bots that go into the comment sections and make up fake success stories on their investments giving credit to these scam services.
YT is to busy censoring commenters who use "b00bies" or "f@t" in their comments. They don't have time to screen bots when there are so many hairy armpitted rainbow crowders to protect from unkind words.
Yep.
David is doing a poor job of managing his channel allowing these scam bots to run wild without deleting their posts.
honesty is priceless...
Chinese have an electric car for $11,000. What does Tesla think about that? Dr. Shilling is excellent and well informed.
Ccp backed and no profit company with an ev that offers zero frills and safety features, think Yugo. Tesla laughs
China and their 'quality products'
I can buy a pair of Oakleys or 10 pairs of Chinese sunglasses. The Oakleys will last longer.
@@yehimstone5492 Not ture at all.
@@yehimstone5492 Tesla is absolutely garbage.
Fed won’t allow deflation. Lmao
Allow? Even hint of it would be a green light to print like a rabid moron.
😂
Famous last words
He talked about decreased demand and continued globalization for causes of deflation, then went on to say services are more problematic, and he doesn't see how prices can go down. He seems to be of his rocker if he thinks politicians are going to be fiscally responsible. LMOA!
Not sure the fed can undo baselined sentiment destruction or economic demand destruction or debt defaults after the fact 👍 even if rates go to 0
Him getting excited about honey was my favorite part
I remember going to the grocery store with my father growing up. He would always complain about prices and say "son, one of these days you're going to have to pay $3 for a gallon of milk". In his mind that was his idea of total insanity. Last night I stopped by Walgreens and paid $6 for a gallon of water.
Idk what water you buy at Walgreens but I just bought 10 of them for 1.50 a piece for distilled 😂
@@jackj0833 haha that ain't bad. Distilled is 2.75 in Indianapolis. But who wants to drink that lol. It's great for humidifiers and chemistry experiments though. Remmeber when tap water wasn't poison?
This is the 1st time I have heard Dr. Shilling. I like the old geezer....I'm an old geezer too.
i have read his newsletter for years. One of the great voices to be heard. Doesn t follow the crowd and gets the macro correct quite frequently. Don t let his age fool you --- he still has it . Also no agenda like many many talking heads. His monthly newsletter is quite voluminous and unbelievable thorough.
Dr. Shilling is a real gem!! Thank you for presenting this insightful guest...good job, GREAT interview!! Good level headed insight...
Thanks Mate, the sad truth is that no one has a clue, we all react to what happens as it happens and try to analyse it but can’t predict an iota of what is going to unfold in the markets… content creators are like amplifiers, when times are good they affirm it and try to tell you why it’s good and that it’s looking bullish but then all of a sudden the market turns bearish and everyone affirms it again and try to analyse why… it’s so sad that many are so powerless and it's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 19Bitcoin in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Tobias Hawke, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Tobias Hawke program is widely available online..
Exploring new investment opportunities demonstrates your proactive stance towards financial growth during these volatile times. Diversifying your portfolio can play a crucial role in effectiveIy mitigating risks..
Throughout my involvement in various trading programs over the years, sifting through a wealth of information, I have yet to encounter anything that rivals the clarity, depth, and precision of Tobias insights. It's like uncovering a diamond in a coal mine.
Indeed, the recent market downturn serves as evidence that a vast majority of individuals lacked a sufficient understanding of the underlying financial dynamics at play.
Building a good investment portfolio is more complex so I would recommend you seek Tobias support.
David, thanks for your consistently excellent interviews - concise and incisive.
Haven't seen Shilling in a long time. He's still sharp. Great interview!
"Old man shakes his fist at Bitcoin"
said the soon-to-be-broke gen-z losers
@Hundredcraptobot: Bruh.....
Bitcon
This time is not different
So far it's been completely different. 15 years without a recession, when the usual interval is 7-8 years. Dow skyrocketing to 40k again despite a million reasons not to.
@@jorge1170xyzno different when quantitative easing occurred continuously since the 2008 crash...the coming crash was only delayed.
@@jorge1170xyz you'll see....
I don’t know one person who has long term hope for the future of our economic system. It seems there is bleakness all around us. 😢
Great interview , its good to hear his perspectives. He's a wise man with decades of experience.
"Absolutely no substance to it"
It's amazing that these "doctors" don't have the ability to define "money".
Obviously running cover for the fiat system that he has been so successful with. This dinosaur’s days are numbered
The inability to define money correlates with the inability to understand bitcoin.
Same thing came to my mind when he said that. As if the dollar is backed by anything with substance. Ignorant old hypocrite. lol
To be fair we can't really expect 90 year olds to... it's a lot to learn, and I'm sure he's spend a lifetime acquiring other knoweledge. I just don't really pay much attention to their thoughts on BTC.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Gary Shilling probably has a higher net worth than most bitcoin supporters.
OTOH, Binance founder and CEO Changpeng Zhao (commonly known as CZ) was the crypto billionaire who lost the most money following the crypto crisis of 2022, with a net worth drop amounting to 82 BILLION U.S. dollars.
Zhao was followed by FTX founder and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, who lost a reported 23 BILLION dollars in only THREE WEEKS prior to his arrest over conspiracy and fraud charges in late 2022.
Once the fourth largest crypto exchange in the world, FTX filed for Bankruptcy following a liquidity crisis in November 2022.
But, hey, if you want to buy crypto currency, I'm sure there is somebody who would love to sell you as much as you wanna buy!!
😋
Hey my guy, prices are still rising and will do as long as the fed keeps spending.
Trillions for foreign aid and zero for us citizens
Lovely old guy but he doesn't understand btc. How much of a speculation is the prospect of continued currency creation. Zero . They will continue to print and spend therefore btc is the lifeline.
Really, what would I do with my Bitcoin after making either a huge profit or loss on it other than cashing it for fiat currency, U.S. dollars? It's extremely volatile so it's not a replacement for currency and it's not a store of value. It's a Gambling token, that's it's only use.
@@Resmith18SR you definitely shouldn’t be accumulating then. Not at these current valuations, nor the future greater valuations.
@@Doitallgp So Bitcoin only goes up, right? If I buy one today for around 60K and it goes back to 16K which it was just a short time ago, will you reimburse me?
Bitcoin is speculation. To not see that is a mental illness.
Go try and buy a loaf of bread or some gas with your bitcoin ...lmao
David, you look tired brother. Take some time to relax and recover. God bless.
David obviously works hard. He gets so many interviews with experienced old codgers. I hope he's getting rich, because his appearance is starting to show the stress.
No cuts are needed
27th comment. I've been waiting for 24 months for the market to correct.
No cuts are warranted.
The way I shall become wealthy is by making music videos which feature clowns eating cockroaches
Cuts will happen.
Fed can do whatever, even to 0 if it feels like it.
Gary is not pulling any punches on his crypto analogy.
Right, there is “absolutely nothing” to a global, borderless, secure, self-supporting, immutable, monetary network with a native coin that floats freely against all of the world’s currencies. It’s okay to be a critic, but he has no business speaking so definitively. I bet if he was pressed he would embarrass himself with his lack of knowing the details.
Gary is very grounded, great interview
@@jaygatsby1Bitcoin is so secure regardless that it's been hacked into numerous times and been confiscated by governments all over the world if they deem it necessary. So secure.
@@jaygatsby1 Bruh,.....
By the way, I've known the drilling is a beekeeper for many years. I've seen him interviewed a number of times in the past and bringing this very thing up. He seems like a very interesting person, quite normal and somebody would like to live next door to. (When I say normal, I'm not saying he's not incredibly intelligent, just that he is also a great person)
Bang on. Great interview. Great guest.
I love linden trees. Thank you professor for your time :)
Thank you David, great interview!
Good interview thanks David 🥰
🚨BANK🚨RUN🚨SEASON🚨
lol.. the FED is absolutely not independent. However; our government is controlled by it whereas the Bank of Zambia is probably controlled by the government.
The guys who talk like this live in the past, it reminds me of Stephen Vanmeter. On paper, you may be correct but in reality, if they give every person a check for $10,000 a month and they know the average voter is so uneducated that they would cheer on this. The US never have to worry about deflation again. Deflation will never be an issue going forward, With the politicians we have.
LOL, if the FED gave out free money to Joe Schmoe on a grand scale I'd back up the truck on alcohol, tobacco, gambling, porn, ammo, and gun investments.
@@1967MGC So, like 2020, then.
Deflation means lower standard of living from inflation or deflation of money supply. All about standard of living.
Depends heavily on what part of the economic landscape you are situated on, and how you are positioned.
gold silver
🎯
@Theashleydenise until a fascist democrat president decides to confiscate the gold like FDR did in 1933. Biden and Elizabeth Warren are already talking about making it unlawful to self custody bitcoin. It won't stop at bitcoin.
Over the decades Gary has always been insightful. Thank you gentlemen
Interest rates are below historical averages. They need to go higher to crush inflation. The cost of credit must account for default risk and right now it’s not accurately reflecting that. The socialist world economies are actually bankrupt.
Gary Shilling one of the old financial masters. Wisdom and knowledge oozing from his mouth.
Bullshit... These are the crazy guys that got us in this mess
Yup, Nope. Equities may be expensive but global liquidity is rising, the Fed is winding down QT and fiscal dominance still reigns going into the election. All that money needs to go somewhere.
Just be careful not to dismiss the concept of Money Heaven, because it sure does exist. Just as a newly originated loan can make money appear from thin air, a defaulted loan can make it go straight to money heaven. Money doesn't ALWAYs have to go "somewhere".
While I don't totally agree Gary about BTC, I don't totally agree with blindly holding BTC through multiple market cycles. The moderate approach has proven profitable. It's for swing trading when weekly RSIs get extreme/divs.
Rainbow log charts getting disgenuously adjusted, and the 4 year guideline is not creating longer cycles, which is actually concerning in terms of overbought.
I can tell what mindset you come from David, but honestly you should consider yourself lucky to have the guests that do come on your show considering where your wisdom level is at, no offense. Some of these people have been through more market cycles than you have been alive, and BTC has yet to prove itself in a recession environment so... while it does move with gold sometimes, it has mostly moved with tech stocks. I regard it as a tech commodity. If you don't think it is a speculative asset anymore, I don't think you are being totally honest with yourself.
There is also a cult like fervor that is honestly not healthy... hope people know about the liquidity pool that the BTC ETFs have opened with Inverse ETFs now...
But hey what do I know, I am just some guy in the YT comments section 😉
Good questions 👏
Doubt it.
There goes bitcoin. No one could tell me what bitcoin does or how to use it. Except trade it like playing cards on a screen.
Love this one
Was about to sign off at the end but glad I waited around - learnt about bees! 33:55
Wrong. As inflation goes up it takes more dollars to price the same stock. Duh🙄
I see no scenario with deflation given the amount of government spending
😂 I didn't believe anything this guy said until he said "I dont have to worry about the price of a hair cut, but you do! 😂 truer words...
Very good interview
you can always trust Gary Shilling
Warning about level of credit card depts in videos then advertising how to shop easier and faster on kudos with your credit card is exactly my humour! 😂😂
Yes, before covid I could get a haircut for $5-7 but now the cheapest I can find is $20-25 so there is much room for deflation
I can cut my hair for 10 minutes of my time and an $18 set of clippers. Buzz your head and put a hat on if you want to save money.
Nope, equities will only go higher!
If they cut ; stocks will go down
The last name seems appropriate but I suppose we will see very soon 😂
This guy predicted the 2008 recession in 2006/'07.
He also predicted a housing crash in 2012 (didn't happen)
He also predicted a global recession in 2013 (didn't happen)
He also predicted an oil crash in 2015 (didn't happen; albeit oil prices decreased for a short amount of time before jumping back up)
He's a bit of a broken clock, which makes him unreliable in his predictions -- he'll be right eventually, but when?
Deflation! EXCELLENT!
This is just baloney. The guy says invest in long U.S. bonds because interest rates will come down; also invest in U.S. dollars because interest rates will stay high. You can't have it both ways.
Great Hair David OMG!
Gary Schilling was the 2 handed economist Truman said he didn’t want working for him.
3oo billion s times faster than you know
He called 20 of the last 2 recessions
Typically with the surge in AI and robotics deflation would but the governments endless money printing will only accelerate and easily cancel any deflationary gains.
Inflation measurements should be taken from San Francisco. Everything is very expensive here.
Economy is not growing faster, inflation is growing faster.
I LOVE his views on Bitcoin ... BRAVO...👏
I agree with him on some points, but this guy seems to think that cheap buggy whips are at attractive values, because these newfangled horseless carriages don't have anything pulling them.
while he may be right in the macro, would he have dismissed google and facebook in the 2000s because people were not aware of thr disruptive nature of onlime advertising vs traditional
"stocks are..." is an imprecise position to start with. Which ones? The sp500 is dominated by a few. The rest of the market is so diverse that it makes no sense to me to talk about "the stocks".
U.S. government cannot afford to have deflation. It makes that $34 trillion debt even harder to payoff.
The value of an immutable honest ledger and a fixed supply that won't be manipulated escapes this old fart. Like there is substance to the dollar.
Problem is the FED Powell is a disgrace
Every guest says the opposite of what last guest said 🙈
Fiscal dominance is real. Basically $1 trillion USD in interests payments is sloshing around trying to be spent. It’s like a perpetual Federal Reserve interest rate cut (FNA economic stimulus).
All the people I know are punting in the stock market.
I am waiting to see my shoeshine boy starts pumping all his cash into the stock market.
🙃🤣
“Good luck” is an awful answer to a very credible question.
55%? It looks to me that the shiller pe is indicating 100% overvaluation. What am I missing here David?
The value is that Bitcoin is not controlled by a central group. That is why they do not like it.. they cannot control it.
"It's a fiction, there's no substance behind it that anyone can identify".... 100% agree this describes the US dollar.
This guy has been calling collapse since the day he was born!
Always find it amusing when a old ( in this case) really old timer says Bitcoin is worthless. But he can't tell you why. He's never read anything on the subject - but he knows better - than you or me.
deflation is a myth because money printer go BRRRRRRRRRR
Can't do this in other countries, otherwise their currencies will crash.
@@vincentyeo88 Dollar will soon crash. I hope you have a garden and you're growing your own food; grocery stores will be empty. Godspeed.
@@vincentaltoro8725
Thank you for your reply.
Unfortunately, I live in an apartment, but it's nearby to a supermarket.
Ha ha. David went out for a few last night.
He's a great interviewer. But yeah.
Half of my positions hit ATH’s today. If your not long inflation you are losing money.
No substance to bitcoin? You lost me there when you glaze over the work of a book like softwar and other very reputable works - this guy is holding on to the past and I bet doomed to be a forgotten past. Good luck
Cuts are inevitable. Otherwise interest payments will b untenable
What will stocks crash into?? The dollar is not backed by gold anymore.
Bull run is definitely not over, new ATH'S incoming within weeks. Then a coreeyand flat into eoy, then the big crash feb-march 2025
“Just panting to be bought”
Haha
The fed creates the bubbles by inflating which altimately burst causing a depression. Edward G. Griffins book The creature from jekyll Island explains this.
Who else thought Charlie Monger (dead) came back to earth after seeing Gary at 1st glance?