Why Warren Buffett Is Raising Cash: Market 'Euphoria' In Final Stage | Bill Smead
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 พ.ค. 2024
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Bill Smead, Chairman of Smead Capital Management, discusses the late stages of market euphoria.
*This video was recorded on May 9, 2024
Bill's previous interview with me: • Brace For 'Ultimate Re...
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0:00 - Intro
0:50 - Berkshire Hathaway and cash
4:33 - Markets entering new era
19:20 - Passive investing
22:20 - Valuations and investing
30:55 - Energy sector
36:45 - Inflation and monetary policy
40:46 - Financials sector
#investing #stocks #economy
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Are we in the late stages of market euphoria? Comment below on what you think will happen next, and don't forget to subscribe!
FOLLOW SMEAD CAPITAL:
Website: smeadcap.com/
Twitter (@SmeadCap): twitter.com/SmeadCap
You could listen a bit more bro
Buffets holding of cash: 2017: 116 Billion
2018: 112 billion
2019: 128 billion
2020: 138 billion
2021: 147 billion
2022: 128,5 billion
2023: 168 billion
2024: 200 billion and now this is a big story, why??
I'm mostly in cash and waiting for this market to re-level on the reality of our situation. Or are there any ways I can avoid a crunch and maximize my savings of $350k?
from my study, 90% of the time in an election year, the stock market stays positive for quite a long time. 2024 is no exemption, but it is better to be guided, ideally by a well experienced and licensed advisor
Even with the right technique and assets some investors would still make more than others, as an investor, you should’ve known that by now, nothing beats experience and that’s final, personally I had to reach out to a market analyst for guidance which is how I was able to grow my account close to a million, withdraw my profit right before the correction and now I’m buying again.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
*Sharon Lynne Hart* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Recently bought some recommended stocks and now they are just penny stocks. There seems to be more negative portfolios in the last 3rd half of 2023 and first half of this year with markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?
Just ''buy the dip'' man. In the long term it will payoff. High interest rates usually mean lower stock prices, however investors should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder.
The truth is that this is really not as difficult as many people presume it to be. It requires a certain level of diligence, no doubt, which is something ordinary investors lack, and so a financial advisor often comes in very handy. My friend just pulled in more than $84k last month alone from his investment with his advisor. That is how people are able to make such huge profits in the market
nice! once you hit a big milestone, the next comes easier.. who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?
I'm cautious about giving specific recommendations as everyone's situation varies. Consider independent financial advisors like "MICHELE KATHERINE SINGH" I've worked with her for 9 years and highly recommend her. Check if she meets your criteria.
Thank you! I entered her full name into my browser, and her website came out on top. I filled her form and i hope she gets back to me soon.
A generation of new investors is going to learn the hard way.
😂/😢
Starbucks bigger issue is their pricing. They raised prices again this past week. Paid almost $4 for a grande hot tea. I’ll still go there periodically but not like i’ve done in the past. If you bought daily, that’s $1,400 a year give or take. That’s more than I’m willing to spend. I can buy a good size box of tea for $8. Just crazy. Convenience is only worth so much.
That’s why I get my Senior coffee at Mcdonalds! $1. I used to buy a tall americano. After they increased price to $3, I said hell no 👎
Yea, but it seems to me that no one under 30 knows anymore how to brew a pot of coffee! ☕ 😐
David, I’m to the point where a miss very few of your excellent interviews. And they’re getting better. This one is one of the best.
I have to agree as I was thinking the same thing. I was laughing as well and hitting pause and going back to listen again so many times during the interview. Lots of good interviews, but this one was the best. This guy has some history and will probably be right on his predictions. I love these seasoned guys who have lived through several bear markets.
Bill Smead is always one of the best guests to interview. Fascinating.
Except he is quite wrong about the sea lions. He should just stick to economics.
Also today there are very good company undervalued li INTEL for example!
Mr Lin has a very respectable style of letting his guest run like a bronco without constantly yanking on the Raines or whipping them into submission. Thank you.
REMEMBER, these crashes usually take a year or two to finally bottom out with many many dead cat bounces along the way. PICK your stocks and your price points way ahead of time and start slowly averaging in once they hit that point. Spread your buys out over an entire year.
Bill is a superstar. His fund SMVLX has a 14 year Cagr of 14.90%. Inflation adjusted cagr is 11.97%!
So average
@@matsutendai Destroys the S&P 500 in that time frame.
@@kealgu it’s barely higher so “destroy “ is objectively false plus my mutual fund got higher returns lol
@matsutendai 1 million invested over the 14 years SMVLX made over 8.4 million, The S&P 500 7.3 million. Let me do the math for you, that is over 1 million dollars. I am sure that's chump change for you. Lol!
@@kealgu cool so we agree it didn’t destroy the S&Ps returns, both examples you gave are very close to just buying the index.
David, Great guest, great interview. Bring Bill back again soon. It was not only educational, but entertaining as well. Thumbs up.
David sending secret market signal encoded in his hair. Go long energy. Count on oil use going up 😀. Very slick form of messaging
The "Lin Hair Poof Inflation Index". I swear by it.
He wears a top hair toupee
Hair Gel: Buy, Buy, Buy 😂😂😂
Oil doesn't rise in a recession buddy
I felt like he was channeling his inner Beethoven. I can totally see him playing piano like a madman with that hair.
I was going to mention coca-cola. in 1998 it was $43 at its high and didn't hit $43 again until 2016. That's 18 years to get to all time highs again.
Microsoft took 14 years between 2000-2014
Did they pay dividends? That's worth something.
@@boggy7665 In a flat market dividends are fantastically important.
So averaging down sometimes does work? 🤠
Wow, my comment was deleted. What the... 😐
David, I liked Mr. Smead’s historical perspective and his interesting analogies. You did a good job keeping him on task. Well done!
That was the best interview I've seen in a while.
Was really fun...guy knows his history too
@ 28:00 Buffet and T. Rowe price, from the opposite ends of the investing spectrum, come to the same conclusion that there is regime change afoot in the 1968. This is priceless historical pedagogy.
22:09 David Bill was CORRECT and you just moved on instead of heading his warning.... Hurd mentality is deadly sir. Thank you Bill
I think Bill is a little too long winded and historical based for David, but what he was saying is quite simple... when you overpay, who is going to rescue you when you want to take profits? So then switch to contrarian views... they hype green and want to print fake money to subsidize it, so switch to black gold (oil) and natural resources which will always be necessary to keep the economy strong.
Yup, and with the Boomers retiring, most of them will flood into bonds. The next decade will have far less capital to grease the wheels of finance.
Demographics has ruled the markets since WW1. Demographics is the force behind the economy.
All the best.
The moment he said that, I felt certain it was what you timestamped in your comment (which I read, but didn't click on, as I wanted to listen to the whole interview).
Indeed a powerful nugget of obviousness he threw there! 👌
Another great interview on the David Lin Report!
Charlie Munger says short the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 from the Other Side. 😂
What do u mean by short? Do u mean cash out or bet it's going to fall or both?
@@rapatel1642Short means bet against.
Charlie doesn’t say anything. He’s dead
@@michaelweissmullery4949 I said from the Other Side.
I hear a lot of common sense coming from Bill Smead, clear and simple, thank you for sharing sir!
Keep up the good work David.👏 I’m watching from Farmington Hills, Mi😀
David: You should get Avi Gilburt on your show. He would be a FANTASTIC interview. Very interesting views on the short medium and long term outlooks for the markets.
Avi gets lost in his own minute tiny stuff EWA useless details...he is more of a OCD...who sees waves within waves within waves wuthin...an accountant more than anything else which offers any actionable anything fir anyone
One of the better interviews I've watched in quite a while!
Another outstanding interview, David. Love your content! ❤
Bill was a really helpful guest David.
He made understandable this complex economy, as well as how to handle it.
Really great interview. Very grateful.
This guy is a good one to listen to
Many good interviews here and this is among the best. Smead's knowledge of market history is awesome. His application of common sense to investing leads to good results.
Bill Smead is a genius! He even mentions my hometown of Astoria, Oregon! He recommended NVR many months ago and it has skyrocketed (while I shorted it 😥). His understanding of market history is very rare.
Dave - Covid was not a bear market - it was a V craze
Another covid 19 will sure cause usa totally self destruction and disaster,,,,?... for sure,,,,
Great interview thank you both, like the high energy from Bill.
Bill is best. Sharp and to the point t and easy to understand
Always connected to this Channel like an addicted
lol, Bill asks; "you ever see the movie Dave?". David, no. I forgot how young David is until just then.
I really enjoyed this program, thank you 🙏
A very interesting perspective and analysis.
Diving into Revux's whitepaper - the innovation and technology behind this project are mind-blowing!
Really interesting guest. A lot of experience and knowledge, especially enjoying his talk on t rowe price and buffet in 1969
At last someone who has a different view along with a plan that makes sense. Great interview.
Great interview!
Awesome interview David
Appreciate the historical context. Patterns and history matters. Ty.
Keep up the great work !
Great information. Thank you
37:34 it's like talking about cancer, rates are the chemio which kills economy and inflation both, like in the cancer case less and better nutrients are the solution to starve cancer and let the body recover as in economy, a good economy is,an ethic and human centered rythm one.
Revux's presale is gaining momentum - early supporters, let's seize this opportunity together!
Loved this interview with Saul Goodman
Great interview 👍!
Thanks!
Exciting times ahead with Revux! Just joined the presale - can't wait to see where this project goes
Presale excitement building up! Revux's project is making waves for all the right reasons.
That's 30% cash. Sounds about right.
I hope we get a crazy bear market I’m ready for it this time, cash on hand!!
When Berkshire Hathaway is dumping Apple and holding a major share of BYD China EV. You know what is coming. I want to know how much money JP Morgan and Cuti bank has in China
Fools. I wouldn't touch a Chinese stock. Remember what happened to Russian stocks? They're all worth zero now. 😐
Berkshire largest holdings are US Treasuries (3 month, 6 month)
My comment about BYD was deleted. Can't be critical of Ch..a here on TH-cam obviously. 😐
@@rexmundi273 They'd get a lot more bang for the buck in a "correction" ⤵️ if they held 30 year Treasuries.
@@ivancho5854 Well they hold those short term US Treasuries which can be converted into cash quickly. The thing with long term US Treasuries is, that you're never sure what long term interest rates will do. Before/In a recession they come down indeed.
Great mini history, thanks.
Good review
As long a you measure stocks in fiat currency, you have not idea what the valuation is, since your yardstick gets shorter as you measure.
Great video thanks 😊😊
You always have to consider your own age and the sequence of returns. It is devastating to buy stocks at their peak right before a crash that takes years to recover if you buy in right when you retire. If you bought something like MSFT back in 2000 at age 65 you'd have almost been 80 yrs old! before you got back to EVEN!
Great ,smart guest! Refreshing
This is a best kept secret show; should be mandatory viewing, Sunday morning and night on all 3 networks.
Kudos to the team for Revux's comprehensive ecosystem. Easy 50x soon.
Brilliant. Sobering interview.
Can consumers just boycott spending. I mean buy absolutely nothing. We should not pay mortgages or rent. Literally refuse to pay until they stop the greedflation.
David Lin does it again! A great guest!
end days are coming! be fearful, go cash, stay inside!
Buffet is positioning the company to have a war chest for either...... a market correction of some significant magnitude or just simply having a war chest available that can be allocated by those that step into his shoes after he is no longer at the top.. doing so in this environment is not detrimental to the business as it is getting paid a reasonable fair amount in interest woth the cash just sitting on the sidelines
Hey Mario! You think oil going higher does it look like a cup and handle on WTI?
Best in a long time
The only way to reduce government debt is reduce spending - NO DIFFERENT than a household budget.
Fascinating.😊
Nice!
Very good 👍
Love it
Revux's AI-driven investment approach is what the financial world needs right now.
Presale alert: Revux is turning heads with its cool approach to decentralized finance. Jump in before it's too late!
Jesus why would anyone touch regional banks as an investment.
Bill great job
Let's see if anyone is paying attention. What was really big in the late 60's & early 70's that is repeating itself now, 50 years later? Three things, and those same things are here again, just as popular and accepted today. To me, that further verifies what is likely to come next...
Here we go again. Crash of the lifetime over and over again.
Buy silver and and water filtration before it’s too late
Just another psychic, some psychics say crash is coming, others say major bull market.
@@tiger_would4419 lol, we all use water filtration daily already, who drinks tap water? 😂🤣
Quantitative easing's a hell of a drug!
Yeh but what if he is right???
Hi you tube. I don't care how many commercials I get now. I'll never give you a penny!!!!!
He likes JPM but not Google or FB?
If energy was correctly priced in the US we wouldn’t be driving to the grocery for the bread and milk
🚴
What does this even mean? US is producing more energy than it ever has. The additional capacity is the only reason energy hasn't skyrocketed worldwide.
You should never capitalise R & D in a consumer oriented stock, if the outcome of the R &D is NOT assured.
Do these guys disclose if they have short positions ? Returns will CLEARLY be higher for everyone. Retail has wayyyyy more access to the markets this stuff never existed before basically anyone can put money into the markets now my 13 yr step son is constantly asking about it and he has no idea what money or markets or anything is lol this younger generation will be full blown gambling in the markets lol
Great way to take a lot of money from noobs
That works both ways. People can dump positions faster than ever now. Revenues still matter btw.
@@prolific1518 Noobs like you that don't understand cycles?
Markets are great for extracting the maximum number of dollars from the clueless.
@@user-yq7rr9lh9c the irony of this comment
The thing about Buffet is there is what he says and then what he does
So true
Bill Smead = sage wisdom
What about first majestic gold?
Thank you David and Bill for this insightful discussion of what can be expected and what shaped our financial sector until now
Channeling Boone Pickins! This guy speaks my language!
AI may well not be a legitimate development. It has already established itself as "domain narrowing." It tends to feed on its own 'information' as an input. Sure, it can replace mid-range to lower end 'copywriters' and increase productivity in that way but it may also be self-destroying at the higher level. I have already noticed how it is very effective at picking out dominant narratives so does it fail at the level of the fallacy ad populum.
I missed the part where he asked him about housing, what were his thoughts? I can’t find it again, I was listening and multitasking.
Terrible advertisement….you ABSOLUTELY do not use dumb brain music
I left when he said he trusts Jamie dimon who is one of the biggest liars on the planet. Not just making money matters. Ethics matter too.
more guests like Bill!
Can’t compare the previous bear markets with the new era of FED QE and not letting recessions to happen..
2 plus 2 still equals 4. They can’t continue QE in perpetuity and inflate their balance sheet. It causes hyperinflation, low growth, and huge divide in haves and have nots. They are in a box and we will have major pain either way. Deflation or a currency collapse
@@bdek68 We don't need QE for next few years, we have 9 trillion sitting on the sidelines buddy and that money is earning 4.5% interest.
@@bdek68are you kidding? That’s exactly what the fed is going to do
@@jjwatt5126what will the result be if they go to ZIRP again? Hyperinflation, unsustainable debt, and a currency crisis. Rates are normal where they are. We dot need 0% or rates under 4-4.5
@@bdek68 I half agree with you, but rates need to be much higher to be considered restrictive. A 5% funds rate is still accommodative policy.
Very interesting guy!
This guy is awesome.
can't go wrong with utilities forth last 24years utilities total return has done better than the S&P 500
If Warren Buffett allocates his portfolio this way, then so do I.
Sure a lot of chat about history here !!