'Mega Crisis' Is Here: Assets That Will Survive Coming 'Fourth Turning'| David Hay
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 มิ.ย. 2024
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David Hay, Co-CIO of Evergreeen Gavekal, discusses asset allocation, the outlook for the economy, and market bubbles.
*This video was recorded on May 21, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
1:30 - Preferred assets
4:07 - Platinum and palladium
8:30 - Copper
12:40 - Labor market
17:00 - Asset allocation
20:16 - Bond yields
22:38 - Ray Dalio's advice
28:55 - Good value assets
32:30 - Bubble 3.5
#investing #economy #markets
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What are the assets that will do well when the next market bubble pops? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe!
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Copper vs. Lithium?
ah, the guy who wanted the republican candidate to be nikki haley...
I think David must find it hard to keep a straight face when he gets the permabears saying the huge crash is around the corner 🤣🤣🤣Ive been following this channel since genesis and the permabears have been saying the same since...in the meantime all the markets have been putting new local and all time highs....its getting beyond a joke now lol.
Just to clarify, Red Lobster "all you can eat shrimp" was just the final straw to push it to the end. The reason Red Lobster went bankrupt was because they had moles in key positions that decided that it was a better idea to sell the land under the Red Lobsters to their own companies and jack the rent up to bleed them out. Just takes a little bit of looking to find the crumbs. As always, follow the money.
Kalshi... is it open to Canadians? I love these unique sponsors. Very interesting stuff....
Investors have shattered hopes of more interest rate hikes as a result of the collapsed Silicon Valley Bank, selling down bank equities all around the world. What's the best way to benefit from the current market forecasts now that my $200k stock portfolio is in a slump and I'm trying to decide whether to liquidate it?
The SVB issue serves as a warning that Fed rate hikes are having an impact, even though the economy has so far kept steady. At times like this, investors must be vigilant for the next unpredictability. Since you don't have to act on every projection, I advise hiring an investment advisor.
I believe using an investing advisor is a terrific idea. In the midst of the 2008 financial crisis, I was literally experiencing horrible dreams before I spoke with an advisor. In conclusion, I was able to increase my initial investment from $320k to almost $2.5 million in 2011 with the aid of my advisor, and I later bought my first investment property.
Well, I've been researching advisors lately because the market news I've been seeing hasn't been that positive. Who is the individual who helped you, and is he or she still around?
Absolutely, I agree, and the markets are currently in a frenzy. The greatest time to observe them, learn more about them, and take advantage of opportunities to strike is now. My advisor, Vivian Carol Gioia told me this. She has witnessed a number of market cycles over the years and has some insight into how, why, and what will happen next.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
Well, its so obvious that things are not improving. I'm looking at high-yield dividend stocks. Selling 200k worth of equities is stupid without reinvesting it. I might turn to cash soon if I don't invest it. Any particulars? (Buying bonds or CDs is not for me)
Don't get any such ideas. If I were you, I would bother less and buy gold and bitcoin. There are more institutional investors in long bonds than individuals and they are all relinquishing their long term holdings.
I agree, while higher interest rates increase bond yields, they also hurt long-term bondholders who can't wait for their bonds to mature. IMO You are better off for next 5 years by buying the dip now.
Avoid institutions holding your money in a bad bond bear market. Seek alternatives for passive income. Consider commodities, but consult a financial planner first, like I do
I am new to alternate investing, bonds were sold off, now this pump and dump scheme by the fed. What other alternatives have you tried that bring you passive income?
I consult with a renowned NY advisor and fixed income strategist with an unorthodox approach.
I worked 40 years to barely have over a million dollars in my retirement portfolio. Meanwhile, there is a teenage girl selling her fart in a jar for $10k. Go figure.
Society seems in need of a hard reset now doesn't it?
We definitely need reverse wealth effect. Higher rates for longer and reduced money supply.
Work farter, not harder my friend.
So what do you want? You are a scammer.
They Stopped Buying
You mention the bankruptcy of Red Lobster but fail to mention the role that the private equity firm (Golden Gate Capital) that bought it played in raiding the company's downfall. They sold most of Red Lobster's real estate to another company that then leased back the properties to Red Lobster at inflated prices. Until these acts of wanton greed are curtailed, our economy will continue be drained by the super wealthy at the expense of regular working people. I really appreciate your analysis, but you should go the extra mile to tell the whole story of our failing economy and not simply blame it on government spending and sovereign debt.
Failing economy? Lowest unemployment rate in decades and massive on shoring of good high paying jobs all as inflation is easing. THESE ARE GREAT ECONOMIC TIMES, I was around in the 70's and the 80's when the economy really was bad .
This is the only channel on the Internet where the sponsors have some relevance to me. Thanks David.
Smart man. Rational calm. Have a feeling that they can hold against the storm
David, best Channel right now. please get Felix Zulauf for an update. there is no person more important to match his Dec 2023 with his Jun 24 mindset.
Listen to very few but David Hay is always worth the time.
Yeah right. He thinks hybrid is the future and the next big thing.
Full electric is foreseeable so much cheaper in manufacturing and operations, it will clearly win from a cost perspective.
@@maxs351 All i know is people who listenned to folks like Peter S have probably done a lot worse than those who took the risk. These guys are right, if the markets reflected reality then the market would be way down, but the top 1% can keep this market afloat even if the other 99% are knee deep in debt or poor.
@@maxs351 agreed - his ideas are so out of date. At least 5 years outdated. Like 'cobalt' - Lifepo batteries use none. But refining petrol uses masses more than Li-ion batteries anyway.
Hybrids are stupid. The last hoorah from the fossil fool car industry cartel.
They are far more likely to catch fire than even an ICE car. BEVs are the least likely to catch fire. And FSD will make transport 10x safer reducing fires even more.
Love your knowledge David when you ask so great questions
Get Fleck on David!!!
I never get notifications even though I am subscribed. What are you doing, David? Telling the truth again?
You have to turn on the notification bell button to get notifications!
You have to set it to "All notifications"
I'll take a rainy and colder spring in Vancouver any day. Just makes everything more green.
Curious about the direction the housing market. Seems like we've had a softening in Vancouver with the higher end homes and condos but townhomes were still doing relatively well with a 4.8% year over year increase. We could be seeing BOC lower interest rates next month. David, if you bring on an expert to discuss the future of CA & US housing markets, that'd be interesting to know. Thank you!
Such a great interview and guest !!! Thank you so much
Excellent interview and very thought provoking!
Thank you. I'm listening to
Love this interview ❤
a new bubble , we know already how and when it will pop , we are living the times when we can have no surprises
Great interview. Great content. Ty David
The biggest problem is there is no way to keep wealth gap to a minimum. In keeps getting wider and no way to narrow it without a civil war type destruction. The weakness of capitalism centric system and weakness of human character.
The more money the government gives out in freebies, the more money collects at the top. And then the Fed has to raise interest rates in an effort to fight inflation but of course the people with all the money sit back and collect risk free interest while the poor are paying higher interest rates. The irony of all ironies is that liberal economic policies fuels the wealth gap which then means more people vote people into office that will give them money. If people don't see the cycle by now I can't help you.
The lesson is to cut back government spending but neither Biden nor Trump have learned that lesson.
If you did not have a government that inflates the money supply and pick winners and losers through cronyism there will naturally be a large reduction in the wealth gap. Organically grown, non-coercion, non-violent is the pathway to a society of liberty. Read Mises and Rothbard. Learn Austrian Economics. It has all the answers.
If the redistribution of wealth to the poor and lower income people does not come up to expectation, then the situation is going to become very dangerous and deadly.
We don't have capitalism. I wish we did.
Usury and interest on money 💰 lending is the problem
Not a word about Silver - unbelievable!
Gambling on events. We have hit the top in mania.
Shifting my portfolio - heavy on BTC and Revux, with a sprinkle of DOT and ADA.
This guy I trust
David Hay, as well as the host.
David Hay is a great mind. Not sure what’s with all the negative comments.
Exactly, this is the greatest economy in decades and getting better with on shoring of good high paying jobs.
We are at red lobster a couple days ago. As part of their chapter 11, some locations will remain open and operational.
I'm all in on Revux. Presales have the highest returns, and this one’s gold.
I see Revux doing 50x, maybe even 100x after it goes live on major exchanges.
Great interview, but was waiting to hear about bitcoin and crypto too
Thansks, now i wont have to watch full episode
we are still early
David. You have your own "brand", and I've followed you since Kitco days. You are an engaging and intelligent interviewer who has on great guests. However, you are sullying your brand by being associated with a sponsor like "Kalshi"
Whats important for any nation is keeping the 99% of the wealth from trickling down instead of up ,while paying the enforcement arms well to stop any voices for change that seek fairness of systems . And that is the way it has evolved.
How long does the economy have to continue to grow before we can say the soft landing happened?
This isn't growth. It's inflation. The cp lie is under reporting the actual statistics
200 %
How come all these so called gurus know nothing about companies shorted into the ground? Kind of mind boggling since they supposed to know everything 🤔
nice call out to Adam Taggart - one of the best
At around 16:15 he talks about Danielle DiMartino Booth, the delta, and the deficit. What's meant by that? Rate of change of the deficit?
David. Red Lobster has been in Canada for many years.
David’s promotions are so cool, I sign up for like all of them.
Kalshi sounds like gambling. Not interested.
Red Lobster is remaining open. They've filed for Chapter 11 protection to reorganize the cost structure of the company and stay in business.
David always with subtle truth bombs. Your show is smooth and very informative as usual.
Just don’t have Jeff “Bad Toupee” Christian on again!!
Kalshi. I`ve heard Cowsheet. I was like what the hell is that?! 🤣🤣🤣
Another option for gambling…
So, he claims there WILL be inflation AFTER the fiscal response to the upcoming crash?
Hell yeah, there will be massive quantitative easing again with money printing galore.
Did he really call Donald Trump an "Orange Swan"? @6:00 This guy is ridiculous.
Hi David, we love your channel and would love to collaborate with you! What's the best email to send details? Looking forward to hearing from you! Best, Lea
Hi Lea, you can reach me at david@thedavidlinreport.com
@@TheDavidLinReport Thank you for your response! I have just sent you an email, please let me know if you received it. Best regards.
Don't understand some of the critical comments, he talked a lot of sense and laid out some value propositions - Palladium and Platinum, Oil and natural gas, emerging market debt. Sounds reasonable to me
Inarguable?
No body has this down pat
Silver's time is now! 32 as of writing this!
Revux is dominating my crypto chats - seems like the next big thing!
Market goes up world flooding in safe havens. But debasement people buy any asset they can get into. Look at Venezuela stock market skyrocked
Becoz a company filing bankruptcy doesn’t mean they will die immediately. Bankruptcy is just another form to continue survival. Therefore you can still Eat red lobster 🦞, David 😂
Natural Gas is called the widow maker for a reason
Precious metals is the best investment. Commodities supercycle inbound. URANIUM is on fire. Thanks David, great interview guys 👍
though gold and silver are not investments. they ARE money.
I'm hoping silvers double quality as store of value, major shortage tied with increased global demand will keep it up when everything crashes. Dollar bills will go to zero just not sure how long that will take. 2 years, 5 years 10 years?
You are BIG time wrong with hybrids. 😂
SBUX sponsored 32:33
Chapter 11 bankruptcy for Red Lobster will continue the business with a reorganization of debt.
No stagflation, low inflation + recession instead.
The junior minor Rua gold inc Co. Is really cheap they have a phenomenal management class drilling results were insane the quality of gold is the highest in the world and they had gold on the surface in New Zealand on the southern island. Between 13 and 15 cents a share this could be a 20 to 50 bag. Please do your own due diligence and research the company look at the results in the management team before you invest
Palladium is the absolute bargain right now
Haha right
Why would rates come down soon? You have a data dependent FED and inflation is still sticky so they can't really cut rates unless there's a market crash or unemployment spikes. Neither has happened so I'll remain cash rich. Disappointed in lowering rates? If rates come down it's because everything is coming down and stocks will get cheaper so why wouldn't you stay in cash here at a market top? Not sure I get this guy's logic.
Because the velocity of money is rapidly slowing which will actually cause deflation in which wage growth rapidly declines, unemployment skyrockets, bankruptcies skyrocket, investment collapses, tax receipts decline, and considering debt to gdp is north of 120% major insolvency will spread across all major industries. It’s too little to late for the fed who decided that having 0% rates for a decade would be a good idea.
Exactly right on
Stay in cash.....cash is king 🤣🤣🤣🤣
The cops prepare for everything terrible , don't mean its gunna happen
Canada has over 40 million people, small compared to the U.S, yes, but on the one comment, the RCMP could not settle the unrest if even 1 percent of the population rebelled against the Government or the status quo. The Military would have to be called in. The Mounties have superb tactical teams, I know, but they could not handle all the hot spots in this country at the same time. Canucks are like any other people, we will only put up with so much. Enough said!
Good points but from my experience Americans willing to put up with less then Canadians (or more accurately Canadians much more tolerant of being mistreated). I think Canadians have done little to warrant true civil unrest yet. Trucker convoy was about as peaceful of a protest as you could get, met with emergency measures, shutting down on people's bank accounts (without due legal process). What did Canadians do? They disbanded and went home.
Muck about and find out eh!!!
Military is so underfunded it is unlikely there are enough people or equipment to quell anarchy.
Canadian Army does south to the US for maneuvers every summer. Equipment looks like it came from a 1950's museum exhibit.
@@James-il3tqthe demographics have changed massively in Canada over the last 30 years. The new demographic will be FAR less tolerant of hardship than the pre-1990s demographic
Another well done "David Squared" episode. Cheers, Mate.
That "cowshi" ad was ridiculous...I know you gotta pay the bills...BUT...that's nothing more or less than a gambling site.
Nothing personal...just sharing a comment.
It's for punters and speculators to have some fun when they have the money to lose. 🙃🤣
This is my first time hearing from this guest. He is excellent!
I’ve never eaten red lobster either as a Canadian lol one in Toronto I think and Niagara Falls lol Lin you’re so funny!
Something inside me makes me want to start the market correction. It would be easy… everything I buy goes down, and I’ve been holding out to be smart for a couple years now -waiting for a crash…. All I have to do is finally buy in-put a few thousand into the S&P-and the entire market will drop precipitously 😂…
My EV drone and EV bicycle rock, love them. Also solar power at cabin, off the grid. Awesome. Small is the secret.
Sounds nice but your solar won't heat your home in winter nor will ebike take you far distances or be able to carry anything other then a backpack. Ultimately people need more then solar and EV technology still many years away from bring affordable and practical.
Look at you! We used to pedal bikes😂
How to sell gold without actually selling gold
why would you swap real money for monopoly money?!?! you buy other assets directly with gold.
Oh no what workd ending disaster is happening in yankie land today 😅😂
Love this channel, but the bear parade is in full force right now. Personally, I think a continued melt-up in asset prices is far more likely than a great depression 2.0. At the end of the day, none of these people are wrong - 50 years of irresponsible fiscal policy does have consequences but the market will remain irrational longer than you and I can stay solvent betting on collapse.
100% , even though the working class is struggling , the companies are still doing ok. Stocks only drop when mass job losses occur due to forced pension contributions not being as much to keep the market propped up.
The game also changed to each individual/business will go insolvent at different times, give them as much credit as they need until they fail to make payments after 3 months and then liquidated. Instead of a mass hit to a lot of people/businesses .
The middle class is way worse off but we have two economies. One for the rich and one for everyone else.
Market go up
Wen collapse
😂😂😂😂😂😂
Agree but question is will the market keep going up in real or nominal terms? I think while we need to stay invested, real returns for years ahead may be lackluster, possible negative.
I’ll prepare for the bad and save my butt in the end, thank you very much
100% agree
ThumbUp &LeaveComment 4AIgos
Very good guest
When all else fails follow directions ! Remove modern money changers ! Restore Constitutional Money !
Funny that there is no fourth turning in China.
If you live in China you never leave the 4th turning
Why are there so many bots 🤖 in this comment section?
None of these crash theorist whoever right…..look at uncle Jeremy ….lol
EVs are not good for the environment
We are already in the crash- a slow burn. Just because there are companies developing some incredible IT AI etc yes- but will be along time before those benifits filter down to middle middle class and below- it is classic destruction cycle combined with out of control government, geo political tension very serious worst since pre ww2
I think every company suffering right now should blame the tech sector (tech companies). Why is every other sector down bad and the tech sector Still is killing it? Makes no sense...
Dude said shiny rocks and hybrid cars! I'd rather invest in pet food and boxed wine.
I love the ev fleet ideas for inner city and tourist trams.
Yah they had to pivot the narrative cause its getting flimsy
Everywhere I look I see confirmation bias.
So what will it be today? Gloom or doom?
I can't believe how undervalued FourPrime Token is, considering who made it and all the tech, vision etc behind it.
Really enjoy David^2
" Hybrid " Are you kidding me 😅😂😂😂.....that's NEVER going to happen....
David, you live in Canada. Do you not track the TSX?
Kalshi is rough, one of the hardest trading things you can ever do. Not saying other trading is easy, but the amount of times I lost my bag on 93c with 5 minutes to go. It also has slightly different triggers when you want to get out of the market. There is a strategy to get good money, but it sure is nerve racking, 10 minutes closer to close with an hour left, that can change things wildly, the only type of trading you wish for zero volitility in the financials.
In other polls just be correct, and if you are unsure, you're probably wrong. Seriously you can go 90% correct choices but if your answer is wrong you lose it all. If you have a strategy and are able to be consistent, Kashi and event trading is probably more lucrative than options trading but when you fall you have less risk. That's zero, but not ever negative.
I have been able to withdrawal twice, and it's nice and quick, same as any other bank transfer. I recommend everyone to do long term investing, but if you must trade swing instead.
how come no one discusses Hydrogen and Norwegian countries soverign wealth funds have heavily invested in Hydrogen as the future fuel,.... Why No Hydrogen??? You think everyone will be driving nuke powered cars?
Yep. Driving one now. Every two weeks I can go for a drive just for fun to use the excess energy that I can't share (well sell for pennies that consumers pay 30-80cents kWh.
"maybe we are going to get a series of great breaks like an energy miracle"... Yep! its called Nuclear Fussion
Or nuclear fizzyion?
SMRs in regional use centers taking load off of the main grid sounds about right…
Trajectory for the next profit maker for the EV industry is so self-centered, the purveyors deliberately turn their heads toward the looming problem of disposal of spent "batteries" for EVs and Hybrids. Eventually, after it's battery service life, do you toss them into your home trash bin after midnight, do you incinerate them, do you send them into a junk yard in outer space, do we put it on barge and covertly dump in the remote hills, jungles and seas of less developed countries? The purveyors overtly talk about zero emissions, and there is NO Talk about ZERO Pollution of these endeavors, beyond a localized barrier of environmental laws.
Federal deficits prevent recessions? What? This guy has some weird takes. If we have a flat GDP in inflated dollars, is that not a recession?
He can hold Emerging debt as much as he wants, not touching that junk.
Hybrids are foolish
Worst of both worlds. There is very little cobalt or nickel being used in new battery chemistry. He is not well informed about EV market
These people have been saying this for the past 12 years 😅
so you have no excuse not to be prepared
The Fourth Turning started in 2008, and the problems with the economy were never addressed, just papered over with printed money. Central planning didn't stop the Fourth Turning. That's like trying to sweep back the ocean. It just dammed it up which has only increased the pressure.
@lepton31415 you get ready for the rest of your life I'm happy with just staying positive and enjoying the earning 🤑
I'm buying bitcoin since ages ago and there is nothing to worry about 🙂
David, with all due respect. All of this guest calling for a crash the last year and there is greed in the markets and we are at all time highs. The videos become more repetitive than informative.
How does this dude make money?
Anyone talking gold miners doesn't make money.
@@barfly1984 ?????
You'll get no rate cuts, if anything a hike. The fed moved away from target inflation. It will stay well above 2% for some time
Very few people will survive this ground zero in the US.