Inflation To 'Rebound', Crash Markets And Send Interest Rates Soaring | Louis Gave & David Hay
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 พ.ค. 2024
- Sign up for an IRA with ITrust today using this link: itrust.capital/David
Louis Gave, CEO of Gavekal, and David Hay, Co-CIO of Evergreen Gavekal, join forces to discuss the coming rebound of inflation and all the market implications that come with it.
*This video was recorded on April 8, 2024
FOLLOW DAVID HAY:
Haymaker Substack Page: haymaker.substack.com/
Dave's Biographical Page: evergreengavekal.com/team/dav...
Bubble 3.0 Audiobook: awesound.com/a/bubble-30-hist... (Enter LINREPORT50 for a 50% discount)
Evergreen Compatibility Survey: evergreengavekal.com/compatib...
LinkedIn: / davidhayevergreencapital
Twitter (@Haymaker_0): / haymaker_0
FOLLOW LOUIS GAVE:
Gavekal: web.gavekal.com/
Twitter (@gave_vincent): / gave_vincent
FOLLOW DAVID LIN:
Twitter (@davidlin_TV): / davidlin_tv
TikTok (@davidlin_TV): / davidlin_tv
Instagram (@davidlin_TV): / davidlin_tv
For business inquiries, reach me at david@thedavidlinreport.com
*This video is not financial advice. The channel is not responsible for the performance of sponsors and affiliates.
0:00 - Intro
1:36 - Rebound of inflation
7:37 - Fed policy
16:13 - 8% interest rate?
23:07 - Inflation and spending
33:14 - Invasion of Taiwan?
37:11 - Market bubble
46:00 - Market outlook
48:34 - Gold
51:53 - Asset allocation
#investing #economy #markets
![🔴 [TRỰC TIẾP] Tứ Xuyên (Trung Quốc) VS U20 Thái Lan | Cúp VTV9 - Bình Điền 2024 | JET STUDIO](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/bguJ41PcW0c/mqdefault.jpg)
Sign up for an IRA with ITrust today using this link: itrust.capital/David
Will the Fed lose control of inflation? Comment below on what will happen to inflation, as well as Fed monetary policy, and don't forget to subscribe!
FOLLOW DAVID HAY:
Haymaker Substack Page: haymaker.substack.com/
Dave's Biographical Page: evergreengavekal.com/team/david-hay/
Bubble 3.0 Audiobook: awesound.com/a/bubble-30-historys-biggest-financial-bubble (Enter LINREPORT50 for a 50% discount)
Evergreen Compatibility Survey: evergreengavekal.com/compatibility-survey/
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/davidhayevergreencapital/
Twitter (@Haymaker_0): twitter.com/Haymaker_0
FOLLOW LOUIS GAVE:
Gavekal: web.gavekal.com/
Twitter (@gave_vincent): twitter.com/gave_vincent
If you can’t project wether economic conditions or policies will produce one of either 2 extremes then you must accept you know nothing at all and that economics is an utterly illegitimate field of study.
is silver same as gold ...i bought silver minning companys
Hey David, I would love for you to ask someone about the prospect of Taiwan being attacked not to be secured for mainland China, but as a blow to the US.
I.e. as a "well maybe we can't win, but we can make you lose" scenario. As mentioned, NVIDIA stock, which is propping up the entire stock market, would take a massive hit, and cause the entire market to panic.
Plud, we have to remember that as Putin said, "whoever masters AGI first will rule the world" so there is an AI arms race ongoing as we speak. It would make sense for China to trip up the US side of that equation if they feel they are losing.
The reduction in high end chip production would hurt China as a lot of the electronics they assemble rely on those chips, but I think China would survive and may consider it a worthy sacrifice to strike a blow to US chip dominance.
Something to consider.
This interview was great, very happy to hear more from these gentlemen.
Great work as always.
I can't imagine the crazy house of cards made by reckless policy and governance not yielding wild instability, inflations and deflations.
Gold’s price I think still has a margin to increase but not as much as it did since the early 2000’s (around $250 and now around $2,400 an ounce). That’s almost 10X. Gold is mostly a commodity, hence, it has a demand destruction. It is used as a good conductor of heat, as jewelries, as component of industrial machineries or gadgets like cell phones, etc. Imagine if gold’s price increase by 10X again, then all products that use gold will increase by 10X also. Who’s gonna by a product say for example a cell phone that previously costs around $1,000 but costs $10,000 now? Stocks on the other hand has more exponential growth especially those growth stocks. If you’re scared of putting a lot of money on growth stocks, then you can hedge by also balancing your portfolio through investing in large caps stocks. Stocks have always proven as the best performer of all assets, not real estate, not bonds, not cash and especially not gold. The S and P 500 index in 1928 was only $24 and now it’s around $5,051 (210X) whereas gold’s price in that same year of 1928 was $20 per ounce and now is only around $2,386 (119X). I still have faith in America as the safest haven on earth when it comes to financial investment because it still has the most stable and transparent government in all of the world. Heck, other countries may manufacture stuffs right and left but a lot of their companies and investors all over the world will still park their “scared” and “dumb” money in America especially when there’s global turmoil like what we have now. Those who want to invest in Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and their cohorts need to have an MRI of the brain because you may earn a lot in the beginning as a bait but will just lose almost all of it later because of their authoritarian governments where people’s right to redress the grievances of their citizens are muffled and met by violence and worse, by murder!
“This is why you’re in debt”
The first step to attaining wealth is figuring out your goaIs and risk toIerance - either on your own or with the heIp of a financiaI pIanner, and foIIowing through with an inteIIigent pIan, you wiII gain financiaI growth over the years and enjoy the benefits of managing your money.
I am fortunate I made productive decisions that changed my finances (gathered over 1M in 2years) through my financiaI planner. Got my 2nd house in Feb, and hoping to retire soon. Give this a try and attain good-returns.
For more lnfo
Financial -Planner Rebecca Mart-Watson (in fuII)
In debt 😂 you sound like a complete🐧
I'm DCAing in Blcktken300 as well. ETH heavier DCA and ALGO. I'm taking your advice and starting Google tomorrow with a 50 dollar purchase and continuing Microsoft and Apple. VTI and VOO on another app and longterm portfolio. Here we go family!
I could have listened for 10 hours. Great guests and they were good together.
Im betting Blcktken300 will perform well, it havent had a cycle yet and they have a strong community on both, and Blcktken300 update will make rollup fees even lower. Just my 2 cents. Great video goodvibes
Louis is very good, provided insights that I have not heard from other guests. Love it!
David thank you for relentlessly bringing us articulable, and digestible up to date current market/financial information. Mainstream media would never!
Great chat! Love both Louis & Dave’s take at where we are in the cycle. TY David 🙏🏻
Great guests and conversation i could have listened for hours!
Fabulous content. I learned so much from the video (and I consider myself well informed). Just top notch guests!
I've been waiting for a conversation about this topic. Thanks.
Two great guest and information...thanks David.
Good point that the only thing that will be “higher for longer,” is inflation itself.
that discussion was awesome, Dav. Thanks for bringing w
such quality discussion and knowledge to us. Cheers
Thanks for these two great guests. Brilliant discussion!
Fantastic 🎉🎉🎉🎉
🎉🎉 both David’s need microphones 🎉🎉
Double interest rate are must to save the $.
Great interview. Really interesting insight from these guys - well done to all 👌
I think the 10 year is going to go above 12% maybe even higher. Most folks have no idea what that means but they will.
You must get Louis Gave back on! He’s incredible 💯👌🏻
Great commentary on Taiwan from Louis
The problem is not whether Xi JInPing wants to attack Taiwan. The problem is US wants a war with China (Why do you think Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan?) With China's problem with Philippines, the war might come after all.
Amazing interview David, love every minute, thx.
Outstanding interview, David, excellent guests, this is one of your best 👌
Fed is not cutting in June.
The plan was to gaslight about cuts until the election in November, Powell knows he has to raise not cut to halt inflation. Israel just screwed their plans by antagonizing Iran.
Yup, it was just signaled today it would be later.
Cutting in June 2024, much like the famed transitory inflation of 2021 is fed speak for "we will wait until there is a large problem and then overreact."
Bond market is on brink of collapse. Cut incoming.
Cut rates without printing.
Captivating because it was highly informative ( at least at my level of knowledge). Thank you very much for this opportunity for more knowledge and understanding.
Very valuable experienced guests, right on.
Great conversation and great topics. Congratulations gentlemen
Brilliant guests!
Great guests
Congratulations David on a great interview 👏
Really great guests and interview
Amazing interview
Another strong interview David! Thanks!
Great interview!!! 2 very smart investment professionals who are right on point!!!
Great debate 👏🏽 lots of “gold nuggets” here. Kudos!!!
Good information from your guests.
Incredible!
David does a fantastic job.
Thumb up to the great guests .
awesome guests
Great Macro info! Way to go!
Really liked this show
Great guests!
very very informative, knowledgable and stimulating discussion. thanks david and the guests!
Great discussion!!
great iterview
This was great
2:00 manufacturing strong, uptrend in global manufacturing cycle. Energy price up: Chinese econ has bottomed, raising commodities and energy prices. India too 4:40 China now biggest car exporter, selling to first time car buyers, creating sub 10K car mkt 6:00 fed will still cut in June 8:25 wage growing at 5%. 9:20 even Germany rebounding, China back, emerging mkt booming. Under investment for decades, now investing 11:00 mkt and manufacturing data point to the same up trend 12:25 cut will be a policy mistake 13:10 to crush inflation, need right fiscal and monetary policy; none in the West 20:00 US debt to gdp 120%, not in productive investments 22:40 French economist on inflation 24:00 no recession bc massive govt spending 24:30 ST gain and LT crash. Lacy Hunt. Palo Macro, inflationary recession, illusion of prosperity, social discomfort 28:35 China no inflation, govt supporting stock prices, chinese stocksbsuper cheap. NVDA= Taiwan 34:00 China won't attack Taiwan 39:35 bond and CR spreads fueled the recent rally 43:00 china vs US stock mkt, don't buy when Wall St is selling 45:50 asset classes
Thank you based AI summarizer.
46:45 gold demand comes from China Japan 47:45 yen down, rmb follows 48:45 gold bull mkt will end when China and Japan change policies 50:45 how to participate, miners, gold brokers 51:25 Western investors will realize they need gold too 52:00 big on miners and gold
Need an individual interview with both these guys
Imagine if the Fed used real, truthful inflation numbers. Rates would be double digit.
It was 25% 😂 and they blame us for getting four to 5% increases but I have friends or engineers making six figures who only got three and a half
Very good discussion
The comment at 13:10 is the gold nugget of this entire convo. The Fed is simply pissing into the wind with higher rates without the accompanying fiscal restraint that they are not going to get. So they’re getting all the downside(bond market, interest expense, …)of higher rates with little improvement in inflation. They’ve decided that instead of standing in the middle of the ring and fighting inflation with one hand tied behind their back that they’ll retreat and not take the beating. Fiscal has to join the fight for any hope of victory
I agree. The interest rate isn't highly relevant to the overall money supply (m3) at this point. The only thing the interest rate can do is move money between sectors.
Seems that interest rates don’t impact the pool of money as much as they impact the velocity of money.
Thank you Louis and David H for this great discussion: so if Jamie Dimon thinks inflation will get worse in coming years, and when you look how cheap oil is (using present-day-values of past prices), to keep our net worth from devaluing we pretty much have to invest in oil equities.
Ummm, bitcoin is the best performing asset the last 15 years. You might want to look into it.
This vid is awesome.
Best definition of inflation : 23:38 to 24:01 wow that was a heavy concept to digest .....i had to watch it 10 X to understand it
excellent interview - when will the gold run end?
Amitiés à votre soeur et a votre papa Louis! Merci à toute la famille Gave!
One of the best interviews!
30:00 Russell Napier argues (in his recent Library of Mistakes talk) that we should consider where domestic capital flows are headed before deciding where to invest in the world. For China, domestic capital is flowing out of the country. Russell says that when foreign capital is flowing in, but domestic capital is flowing out, it's the foreign investors who are wrong!
The Yuan is not depreciating because of a worsening trade deficit, it's happening because of a worsening capital account, so be vary careful about investing in China.
I think I’m ready to accept the Illusion of Prosperity.
Great interviews. What does it all mean for investors trying to protect our purchasing power?
Precious metals or india
Spot on!!!
Which part? It was an hour long video
Thanks!
thanks!
We need to start asking who is collecting the data and if they’re being objective
Bingo
FED WILL BE SPIKEING INTEREST RATE'S HIGHER ? NOT LOWER ?? OBVIOUSLY ?
You should have a debate between inflation vs deflation
It would be great if you had a deep dive on the $AKDMTTP
Very good !!!!!!!!!!!!!
david lin is giga chad
Other analysts are reporting that China is collapsing. How can so many analysts have such different outlooks?
That's a good question
I was wondering the same thing. Also how can we even trust any CCP numbers?
Clash of interest and prejudice
Western reporters like the ones claiming Ukraine was winning the war? 😂
As a Chinese Canadian, all I've been hearing from the Chinese community lately is all about China's collapsing in recent years.
David looks knackered.
Thanks from Australia!
I paid $10 for a meat pie today in Perth 😅
Finally somebody honest, humble and courageous enough to not call them stupid ;) 14:40
Got my fingers crossed for BRETT and $AKDMTTP
Excellent video! David drank Starbuck drink. SBUX 😊
Louis is spot on on his takes on Russia/Ukraine and China/Taiwan. It’s refreshing not to hear mindless regurgitation of neocon propaganda.
huge debts ($34T) and deficits ($1T/100days), and rising debt servicing paying $1T/yr. interest at 5%.
real US inflation 10%.
rates and yields up to 6% then the US Debt Clock explodes into inflation and hyperinflation.
rates and yields down then no one will purchase 4% treasuries billions and trillions to be sold in 2024.
The US rates are stuck at 5% going forward.
This is it.
US inflation is 6-8% currently. It seems like 10, but that's only because it was 15% for a few months last year.
@@RD-kz4wr I see hidden inflation in the work force. I'm starting to have to pay people bribe money to get things done. It's getting bad.
I like the guy with headphones on. Smart and sensible bloke.
David Hay is on an echo chamber. Hard to hear
I don't know why no one is listening to the central bankers. "Higher for longer" the msg is clear.
Naw, bond market on brink of collapse and debt expanding faster and faster. Cut coming.
Great analogy with the pregnancy
If inflation picks up and interest rates are raised will companies have massive layoffs? Will layoffs cause massive unrest? Or even if interest rates are rates will inflation continue to rise and doubling food prices cause massive unrest?
Silver 🥈 baby 😃
Been collecting the $AKDMTTP this cycle as that has the right place in this time
I didn't think I'd like them but they did well
David, do a deep dive on the "market metrics" that folks are throwing around/referencing. How much of the rising prices "demand" referenced as evidence of better business conditions are really just a figment of Inflation? Check food inflation and the real on the street price rise is like 30% over the last year or two, same effect happens on commodities as the buying power of fiat currencies goes down. Misreading economic data surging with inflation effects is dangerous: individuals and businesses will make poor investment decisions. The data seems to indicate a glut of buyers are chasing products so the business buys additional equipment and authorizes worker overtime which all pile up and sit on shelves.
....or they drain your super/401k....downsize and get out of the way
Japan is not strong at all. They are facing insane inflation crisis with yen crashing against usd
Thank you!
David...maybe next time interview Louis solo...He has so much good info to say...one hour is not enough
Why cant u buy gold spot like xauusd? Is that not the correct way?
Louis Gave. He pretty mucch see things the same way I do.
I am with 90% on BTC and also keep some in $AKDMTTP thanks for the video as always!
I am personally shocked that David has bearish guess on his show. He is such a perma bull it is amazing.
This 6% budget deficit in monetary terms is larger than personal and corporate savings as at 2024 !! Since savings is really low, investment will also be insignificant and that in turn means that America's stock of capital equipment will not grow significantly enough for productivity growth and more productive employment !!
It takes a Financial Analyist to explain the really reason for the Ukraine war, thank you!
China is not collapsing but dropping prices to take greater market share. Exporting deflationary goods.
He admires Jamie “I’m richer than you. But I did receive trillions in government backstops and guarantees to keep the shirt on my back” Dimon. Okay. 😂😂😂😂
Narco and Epstein $ galore.
If your game is getting richer and richer it's hard to find many doing it better than Dimon. He sells his soul to do it, but maybe this guy doesn't mind that part.
Yea that was hilarious. The president comment was gold. Yea that's what we really need. A central banker president.
@@MAMPwhat better person to get spending, taxes and inflation under control?. Clearly sleepy Joe can’t do it.
How's everyone talking about $AKDMTTP and what is it exactly?
Odd twist to recency bias but despite Louis's points do not think China was ever investible for retail investors and will never be.
What a statement, damn. So its said that $AKDMTTP is just about to launch and I think that will really change a lot of what was happening in the previous years, 2024 will shine yay