IS THE STOCK MARKET OVERVALUED?
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Is the stock market truly overvalued, or is it discounting an optimistic future? In this insightful video, Jason Shapiro breaks down the two sides of the market's current state: wild optimism fueled by FOMO and a discounting mechanism for a promising future led by economic growth and AI innovation. Jason dives into traditional valuation measures like P/E ratios, price-to-sales, and the Buffett indicator, explaining why many traders think the market is in bubble territory.
But this isn’t just about valuations-it’s about market psychology. Are traders betting on a future where AI and economic reforms deliver unparalleled growth? Or is this just another hype cycle? Jason unpacks key topics, including the role of government deficits, bond market reactions, and the impact of cutting-edge AI technology on productivity.
Stay tuned as Jason shares valuable advice for traders: let the tape guide you. Whether you're bullish or bearish, the market's movements provide crucial signals to navigate this unpredictable environment. If you’ve ever struggled with trading against the market, this video is a must-watch.
🔔 Don’t forget to subscribe for more market insights and visit www.crowdedmarketreport.com for exclusive analysis and resources. Let’s trade smarter, not harder!
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We are in our 50s with nearly $3M saved, no debt and $50K annual spending. But we avoid the stock market completely.
I’m retired. Your story of a conservative savings profile is a common one. Any course of action involves risks. You might be avoiding market risk, but you are taking on other risks like inflation and reinvestment risk.
My wife is willing to work for another 5 years if needed. Are we in good shape? Will we be okay if I begin withdrawing from Social Security when I’m 62 and my wife is 67? Should we hire a financial planner to help us navigate this?
No one likes market risk, but without longer retirement, taking on risk is often a necessary evil to compensate for inflation.
Certainly get a pro to look at your predicament (if you even have one, lol) A second opinion from acomprehensive financial adviser can help you look at more than just your current estimate of cash flow and needs but also longevity risk, outliving your money, tax considerations, legacy planning, healthcare costs, inflation and a myriad of other things you may not be considering when reviewing your current situation
@clementdan How does one get a comprehensive fa who isn’t looking to just make a buck from consultancy and whatnot
Don't be seduced by large dividends, concentrate on the lng run. There's no sense in collecting large dividends if your overall investment is going down, however I'd say SPYI, JEPQ, QQI and IWMI. I put down $250k to ETFs. Earning season is around the corner, it was this time last year I made a huge breakthrough with $200k. Handed it to a reputable financial advisor. Looking forward to how this end of year plays out.
I'd love to look up your advisor, pls say more.
Very well, Amelia Sophie Woledge, do your due diligence.
Nice picks man.
I met Buffett in 1999. I told him I was having trouble finding stocks to buy. “That’ll change!” he said with a big grin.
Just sold a property in Texas and I'm thinking to put the cash in stocks, I know everyone is saying its ripe enough, but Is this a good time to buy stocks? How long until a full recovery? How are other people in the same market raking in over $200k gains with months, I'm really just confused at this point.
Yes, a good number of folks are raking in huge 6 figure gains in this downtrend, but such strategies are mostly successfully executed by folks with in depth market knowledge
True, despite having no prior investing knowledge, I started investing before the pandemic and pulled in a profit of approximately 950k that same year. In reality, all I was doing was getting professional advice.
I've been looking to switch, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your wealth manager? I'll be happy to use some help.
My CFA is Sonia Nunes Demelo, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
I just googled her now and I'm really impressed with her credentials. I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get.
I need to rewatch this every day and learn to sit on my hands thanks man
I do my own fundamental analysis of the markets and then fade myself. It's been working great.
Thank you for this useful review, always enjoy listening to the open minded expectation with no one sided future prediction. Going on with the trend and putting Stop Losses, is that what you would suggest?
totally
The stock market is more volatile than ever. recently went "all in" and bought up $150k worth of ETF's & individual stocks, my aim is to take advantage of this S&P 500 downtrend, what could be accurate predictions moving forward?
Having NVDA and PLTR are smart additions in my opinion. it's all about balancing your risk tolerance with your long-term goals. Also partnering with a fiduciary advisor can help streamline your strategy.
De-risk your portfolios, shore up your core holdings, and take some profits while balancing your portfolio allocations. I’d also suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my wife and I. It's been 6 years now and we've made over 88% capital growth minus dividends.
This is incredible. Could you recommend who you work with? I really could use some help at this moment.
Kimberly Grace Flanagan has always been on the top of my list. She is regarded as a genius in her area and well knowledgeable about financial markets. I highly recommend you look her up if you want excellent collaboration.
Thank you for this pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a calI session with her.
Jason is a wise man!
Great insights Jason, thanks.
Great information...much appreciated.
Thanks Jason, your perspective is always appreciated!
Jason, Thank you for this post. More importantly than the market, I'm trying to figure out if you are a Bhudda & whether I'm gonna get there someday.
Thanks for sharing your great thoughts. Super cool man.
Just amazing information, please keep it up:)
Thanks buddy
Every time there was a bubble, it significantly accelerated before popping. Check the logarithmic charts, the market is growing less than in 2000, or 2020. It doesn't mean it can't crash, the 2008 crash happened w/o market going crazy.
The market has reached almost identical gains to the 2000 bubble in the past 8 years
@@Claytrz no it didn't, before 2000 crash NASDAQ doubled in a year, this time it's about 30% -- not even close. NASDAQ grew ~10 times in a decade 1990-2000, it took it 20 years to get to 2024 levels. It looks to me AI is greatly underestimated, that will change and the market will run again 100% in a year before next big crash.
Blow off tops tend to happen before the bust.
@@ElementaryWatson-123 false from 1993-2000 the S&P experienced 16% compounded gains and from 2016 - 2024 the S&p has annualized 15.5% com0ounded gains
Thank you so much for this amazing video! I need some advice: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
Long the ponzi until the rug is pulled
when the party is rollin, dance close to the door!
Exactly!
Stay long currency debasement while central planners and politicians blame opposing partied and countries for the inflation.
The trend is your friend, except at the end
Ive been in the market for 11 years. I’ve heard this “rug pull” argument every year. You’re a clown and you don’t have any money in the market 🙂
Thank you Sir :)
you the MAN!
Agree
If the prevailing viewpoint among the majority is that either: stocks are overvalued or there will be large-scale future growth, current price action should reflect either side of this consensus view (given that current stock purchases and sales are forward looking). And, so far, stock prices have continued higher even with this information discounted in. - - In other words, I believe the majority of investors are looking at it in a similar way, yet prices continue higher, so it appears the growth narrative remains dominant.
As a guy who’s learning I really appreciate this video
👍Thanks. 👍Jason, is it price discounting or largely due to liquidity flows: if the Fed goes Brrr and funds receive pension payments, won't the market keep going up ?
If that's your premise, ask yourself, is the fed printer going BRRR? When did it go BRRR to reach current valuations? The printer has been off since March 2023 when the fed bailed out the banking system, M2 reflects this.
7:10 In the 50s when Nuclear power was just taking off it was said that in the future electricity will be too cheap to meter. Guess we are still waiting for this, and in 50 years we will still be waiting for AI to make things cost next to zero.
How would AI EVER cause the cost of “things” to be next to zero?
@@indianajones3315 No idea. Have you watched the video? After my time stamp Jason says The Guy he is quoting said in !0 years things are going to be so cheap people will not need to work. So you had better ask this guy who ever he is. No good asking me.
@@indianajones3315The idea is AI exponentially increases the productivity which brings cost of goods and services waaaay down. Unfortunately central planners and elites have other plans for AI. Can't even mention them here or YT algos will pull comment down.
Massive deflation and no one in work is good for the economy?
Rubbish. Go see what people said about personal computers in the 70s/80s, and later about the internet in the 90s. People underestimate technological advance.
Questions.
1)If lower govt deficit (move from 6+% to 3% target) then doesn't it follow, that = lower bond issuance = higher demand per bond (all else being equal) = higher yield = lower bond price? Wouldn't that mean it's possible to see a recession without first having the bond market spit out the dummy?
2) I just can't imagine even the rumour of planned govt department cuts not having a negative effect on govt employee expenditure. If you're a US govt employee right now, you're surely not planning your next Caribbean cruise, right??? Given the oversize of US govt to GDP right now, this is going to have an effect on the economy- whether or not the cuts are enacted- just the fear of losing your livelihood will lower spending. Or not???
I totally agree with Jason's view on not shorting a bull market. Just wondering what data point is going to come out and reverse current thinking - I'm guessing, for this particular thesis, the answer lies around consumer spending / retail sales. What do you guys think??
Only thing overvalued is mag 7, some other large caps and spy and tech etfs the other 7500 stocks (small and mid mostly) are undervalued and still down 50-80% so question is will everything come down? Or will the market even out? No one really knows but next year will tell
Hi @Jason Shapiro, what are your thoughts about $MSTR? I think it is overvalued and will tank pretty soon.
Is landing off the table ?
Can anyone explain to me the meaning of ‘market discounts the future not past’ please?
Overvalued / expensive is relative to the expectation of liquidity inflow. If the floor as raised in tandem with the ceiling, the asset isnt overvalued. Now, the monetary tide is rising.
100%. People (simpletons) fail to appreciate the denominator (money supply and debasement).
For all thos BTC critic's ... they all wish they could have bought it at 1k, 10k, 20k, 30k, 40k, 50k, 60k... just imagine how much gold you could buy with the amount of profits. Gold is not the future. It's too heavy and too slow. Crypto is the future. And you can beleive or not believe. But we can all agree that you and I would have been much better off had we bought BTC any time in the past. Now all that said. I think BTC goes to a million but it goes to 20k first. Any massive pullback in it... is a trade not a hold. Same for gold and sliver. Rich don't hold tops ... they trade........ I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 3b"tc to a decent 26B'tc in the space of a few months. Amidst this, the insights of a knowledgeable guide like that of Seren Wintersun can be crucial. Her expertise in navigating the nuances of trading has been the key for Me understanding and making the most of these emerging financial trends.
SHE IS ON TELE GRAM.
@Serenwintersun
In a field as rapidly evolving as cryptocurrency, staying updated is crucial. Seren’s continual research and adaptation to the latest market changes have been instrumental in helping me make informed decisions.
Always backup your trading with a good strategy.
The same high-yield potential exists in both bullish and bearish situations; what matters is how information and technique are used. Not neglecting professional advice.
He understands the game, he would make a great mentor
Agreed. Very clear and logical thinking, and self awareness
@DukeOkes I await the next step
i think when we get to 2.50 in buffet indicator than we should worry
How do you feel about Nvidia avoiding sanctions to sell into China, their round tripping of money, and SMCI not filing their 10k?
I feel like you missed it.
it's definitely valued
Джейсон, самое главное Вы сказали не шортите пока лента не покажет Вам этого,Спасибо!
🙏
It doesn’t matter WHY the market is going up or down. It only matters IF the market is going up or down. Be on the correct side and don’t swim against the tide.
You are correct !!!
The Nas is lower than the DJI and the S&P, but we should be trend traders so we just go with the market
Can someone explain what the "tape" is?
The term fighting the tape refers to the act of placing a trade that goes against the prevailing trend of the market. The phrase comes from the time in history when stock prices were printed on a ticker tape.
@@79bull and what does fade the trade mean?
"We're in an economic kayfabe right now."
Paul Tudor Jones
Just short at all time high Jason! That be real contrarian 😂
Value is a matter of perspective, because do we just keep going up and down up and down. Markets are not a YO-YO because growth also matters these valuations are cheap for a new cycle. Stocks go higher
Where do u see BTC and ETH going in Q1 and Q2 2025.?
On a screen, either PC or phone
Listened to Gareth Soloway,,,the entire time missed on the entire run of crypto,,,missies on couple od millions
Cvna nuff said
The answer is simple. The value of $USD is decreasing. It looks like the stocks and houses are overvalued. Adjust for inflation all assets. Gold just made a profit this year.
Who is a better fade? Cramer Steve Van Metre guy
Before I even listen to any of this yes in some parts no in others but valuations are a poor timing tool
A deficit for the government is positive for the other side. You have to ask yourself where does that money go. There are many economists that say high interest rates may increase inflation. If the new administration attempts to cut the deficit that means they are pulling money out of the system, and that is not good for the economy.
let the tape confirm it anyways ......
^^ agreed jason, thanks again for posting
👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
But just because it's overvalued, doesn't mean it can't keep going up. For at least a little while longer. Just like it can keep going down longer as well. I agree, believing what the tape thinks, is all that matters
The market is worth what someone is willing to pay for it.
In 1996 Greenspan gave his irrational exuberance speech and when kept on going up like no tomorrow.
We are no where near agi. Ai is just a hype for at least next decade.
Fighting the tape means…
To take position against the current trend. To be short in bullish trend or to be long in bearish tend
Jim Cramer just said The Stock Market is overbought.
Great insight- I tried shorting this year and I got short squeezed badly...never bet against a raging market. A crash will come some time but that time is uncertain until it comes...personally, I believe AI is overvalued but I'm not shorting until the market goes to crisis mode. Until then I will just enjoy dividends (long AGNC, JEPI,...). Good luck! God bless us all!
High dividend stocks/funds like AGNC are much more risky than the overall market. That's one of the last things one should be in if they're concerned about a crisis.
How can I make a good profit as a beginner starting with $9,600?
As a beginner, it's important to have a mentor or guide to keep you accountable. I am guided by Karolina Selene Kalinowska
Finding someone truly skillful is hard. I'm happy to see that a lot of people found Karolina
Don't rush in rather seek expertise. Growing a port-folio is complex
How can she be consulted
face -
book
Equities overvalued? Of course… but we play the game
Nobody knows the future neither Nostradamus and the markets for sure markets are drunk and frothy let’s see how long this toxic situation will last. In the mean time let’s dream! 😂
My thoughts exactly. But much more well articulated by a beautiful balding man.
So Buffet is losing out big time!
Tarrifs are inflationary taxes and will decrease consumption in the short term which will tank the markets at the levels being discussed. They may also screw up international supply chains which is inflationary and will tank markets. Deficits are probably mid- or long term.
That's a very primitive way of analyzing tariffs. Here is a thought, Trump's tariffs on China which are still in effect didn't cause any inflation. Chinese companies can't raise prices w/o losing the market, which is essential for their survival.
I don’t believe that rubbish! But i am non shorting anything yet!
I don’t trust these self forgotten lotos eaters ….. but I will never be short again …. Stepping aside and long only
It’s difficult to compare technicals on a chart due the accumulative 25% inflation during 20-24. If you discount against inflation the bubble doesn’t look so bad. If average inflation you could basically cut the chart bubble in half or more.
First?
Jason. Funny video. This time you talked 12min and said nothing! Guess Thanksgiving was wild huh?
He usually does this
So it seems you like crystalgazers on other channels. Predicting market is the easiest way of losing money.
@@ElementaryWatson-123 Not at all. Here are my shorts: ANF, QQQ, JPM, MSTR & NKLA - thank me in March 2025
@@Nilz4FR lol, I do go short sometimes, but you seem to forget that they are called shorts for a reason, those trades require a very precise timing and they stay open for very short time, no sane individual would hold a short position for half a year. Close your account and thank me later.
There seems to be many requests of 'Thank you's here. Someone will be correct. lol.
Jason, are you married?