For a few months, the words spoken in this video have been stuck in my head. Once I began to see this play out time after time. I realized Jason is truly looking out for our best interest and giving us some true value no one in the finance space will give us.
Look over any of the markets that are full of speculators and you’ll see the same reversals just like gold did. Tells me a few huge algos are hitting buy stops to dump their positions in the noise.
I agree the Fed wasn't dovish. I watched it too. He said "we're going to keep hiking after this one" right at the beginning. I thought that was it, no way it's going to rally here, but there you go....positioning wins! Then the narrative adjusts to what the market did.
Well, got to give you credit for being very doubtful about the upcoming recession, over 500K jobs created, wow! Seriously considering subscribing to your newsletter
Really good video Jason, thanks! Loved how you differentiated that sentiment and positioning changes the payoff if not odds of your trade. There's one similar really good trade in silver mentioned in the book 'The Playbook', please read it whenever you can.
Another great content from you, thanks for sharing. Could you share exactly when it was market confirmation for you on the NASDAQ trade? Did you have already your trade on before the market rally during FOMC press conference?
@@jasonshapiro4369 I revised your "Trading the Last War" video and actually you said that we were on new market lows because of all the specs buying the dip. But I understood you lacked the positioning at the time to be sure it was a real news failure, so the message I took was stay clear of the market, specially long term. I guess eventually you started to get the positioning you needed to get long. By the way, I have been hearing lately from some technical analysts that they also got all the signs at the time that the lows were in .
are you sure everyone seems bearish? price has gone down, but not a day goes by when someone doesnt tell me they are buying this. and not a single person in the past 6 months have said they are selling it. price is not participation
There hasn’t been anything particularly bearish about NQ positioning to start this year. Positioning was more bearish in mid August and the NQ still fell.
amazing content as always. where do you source the news you use for market confirmation? are they different for each commodity or are there specific aggregated sites that are useful?
I read everything I can. I watch everything I can. If a certain market like Orange Juice is set up, I google all the news I can find on OJ. Futures FCM's have some good webpages where they give color on the markets
Thank you. I understand “commercial” in commodities but I don’t understand “commercial” on the nasdaq. Who is “commercial” on the nasdaq or snp? Thanks.
It’s funny, I try and tune in to Fast Money (or just “Fast” as the anchors annoyingly refer to it) since you mentioned you like fading Dan. 😂 A couple of weeks ago he made some claim and Karen Finerman called him out, forget what it was, I think they were talking about one of the big tech companies after earnings dropped. But anyway, yeah, I get what you were saying.
I remember it. One of the reasons Dan is such a great fade is he refuses to accept any form of dissent. Wants to surround himself with people who agree with him. Exact opposite of what a successful trader, or successful anything for that matter, does
Excellent, insightful content - a real gem! appreciate the depth rather than the rest of the garbage analysis out there. What data would you recommend for me to get detailed info on positioning and sentiment on a given market?
Everyone on tv and twitter saying inverted yield curve will force recession this year and market will move down as it always has during recession. Probably happens eventually but not when everyone has bought truckload of puts. 2024 crash more likely
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Literally the only ‘trader’ I respect and listen to. Same lessons again and again. A hidden gem.
For a few months, the words spoken in this video have been stuck in my head. Once I began to see this play out time after time. I realized Jason is truly looking out for our best interest and giving us some true value no one in the finance space will give us.
your content is pure gold
Thank you!!!!
1) Get COT data 2) Wait for the market confirmation, absolute gold Jason, that's where I was going wrong was not waiting for confirmation.
Jason your content is amazing and really resonated! Amazing to see positioning and sentiment displayed so elegantly 🎉
... keep rambling, jason ... we'll stick around!
Great work Jason as always! Thanks for sharing
Really smart Jason thx
Hi Jason..Love your insights and videos. Where can I find those colored bar graphs with the different positionings. Thanks
Can we say ; wisdom ? ... Thanks Jason !
Can you talk about what market confirmation you would look for regarding the Orange trade? Thanks! Great video, I learned a lot.
Some good quotes in this one. I curious if anybody in your discord community uses TA for confirmation.
That risk/reward ratio vs. win rate comment starting from 11' is a million dollar secret. Jason you just gave it away for free. LOL
Great content! Thanks Jason!
Look over any of the markets that are full of speculators and you’ll see the same reversals just like gold did. Tells me a few huge algos are hitting buy stops to dump their positions in the noise.
I agree the Fed wasn't dovish. I watched it too. He said "we're going to keep hiking after this one" right at the beginning. I thought that was it, no way it's going to rally here, but there you go....positioning wins! Then the narrative adjusts to what the market did.
Well, got to give you credit for being very doubtful about the upcoming recession, over 500K jobs created, wow!
Seriously considering subscribing to your newsletter
we would love to have you
Hi jason, how to access the COT data u were using in the video
Really good video Jason, thanks! Loved how you differentiated that sentiment and positioning changes the payoff if not odds of your trade. There's one similar really good trade in silver mentioned in the book 'The Playbook', please read it whenever you can.
Great video! Would you be able to put out a video analyzing your COT report on Tuesday when it comes out?
I think he's talking about Michael Burry
Another great content from you, thanks for sharing. Could you share exactly when it was market confirmation for you on the NASDAQ trade? Did you have already your trade on before the market rally during FOMC press conference?
The market confirmation for the stock market was on Oct 13th CPI report. Have been long since then
@@jasonshapiro4369 I revised your "Trading the Last War" video and actually you said that we were on new market lows because of all the specs buying the dip. But I understood you lacked the positioning at the time to be sure it was a real news failure, so the message I took was stay clear of the market, specially long term. I guess eventually you started to get the positioning you needed to get long. By the way, I have been hearing lately from some technical analysts that they also got all the signs at the time that the lows were in .
@@consensux I think you are correct.
Well done! I’m wondering what your thoughts are on Nat Gas, everyone seems bearish is it time to go long?
are you sure everyone seems bearish? price has gone down, but not a day goes by when someone doesnt tell me they are buying this. and not a single person in the past 6 months have said they are selling it. price is not participation
@@jasonshapiro4369 I see what your saying. I guess I was looking at the chart to tell me people are bearish. Thanks.
There hasn’t been anything particularly bearish about NQ positioning to start this year. Positioning was more bearish in mid August and the NQ still fell.
COT disagrees with you large speculators were long in august and short january
amazing content as always. where do you source the news you use for market confirmation? are they different for each commodity or are there specific aggregated sites that are useful?
I read everything I can. I watch everything I can. If a certain market like Orange Juice is set up, I google all the news I can find on OJ. Futures FCM's have some good webpages where they give color on the markets
Interested
What is in the “commercial” category? Also where do you find these charts?
we produce the charts. please see previous video on COT charts for more explanation. Thank you
Thank you. I understand “commercial” in commodities but I don’t understand “commercial” on the nasdaq. Who is “commercial” on the nasdaq or snp? Thanks.
Good stuff !! ...
So are you leaning more on commercial side?
Always be on the Comms side when it is crowded and news failure happens.
@@crowdedmarketreport thank you for your reply.
Great video!
It’s funny, I try and tune in to Fast Money (or just “Fast” as the anchors annoyingly refer to it) since you mentioned you like fading Dan. 😂 A couple of weeks ago he made some claim and Karen Finerman called him out, forget what it was, I think they were talking about one of the big tech companies after earnings dropped. But anyway, yeah, I get what you were saying.
I remember it. One of the reasons Dan is such a great fade is he refuses to accept any form of dissent. Wants to surround himself with people who agree with him. Exact opposite of what a successful trader, or successful anything for that matter, does
CAN YOU PLEASE TURN THE VOLUME UP IN YOUR VIDEO NEXT TIME?
Excellent, insightful content - a real gem! appreciate the depth rather than the rest of the garbage analysis out there. What data would you recommend for me to get detailed info on positioning and sentiment on a given market?
COT data
You must have meant, Cramer.....hahahahaha,.....
Everyone on tv and twitter saying inverted yield curve will force recession this year and market will move down as it always has during recession. Probably happens eventually but not when everyone has bought truckload of puts. 2024 crash more likely
okay by your logic the great bond crash of 2022 is not over
IT IS VERY HARD TO HEAR YOU
Natural gas has imploded and seems so extended to the downside. I wish I knew what the pundits on tv were saying but I don’t watch them.
why are you wearing a winter hat?
It’s winter…
@@crowdedmarketreport fading that! Short winter hats.
@@crowdedmarketreport Are you outside?
Honestly you are playing 3D chess vs. the rest of the hacks opining on this crap
GOD loves you enough to send HIS only SON to save you and if you repent and turn from your sins and be baptized in THE NAME OF THE FATHER, THE SON and THE HOLY SPIRIT. ((if you haven't )