Waymo has been doing this kind of growth for several years now. It's just that the numbers are getting large, and the Tesla fans were programmed by Elon to think Waymo was a joke, so they scoffed at how Waymo was "playing in their little sandbox with their expensive toys". Since 2022, Waymo has been steadily expanding their Phoenix and San Fran passenger-only territories for public paid rides, adding L.A. and Austin, testing in dozens of other cities, expanding their airport service in Phoenix, improving their sensor suite, solving emergency-vehicle and construction issues, and all without a serious incident over millions of passenger-only dense-city miles. In 2022 they knew they were ready to expand to pretty much any city, but they laid low and expanded responsibly, unlike Cruise. Unlike Tesla, Waymo practices under-promising and over-delivering, and has built a Driver that can greatly reduce serious accidents. I'm glad to see how the rest of the self-driving enthusiast world, including Zachary, is now waking up to how good Waymo is.
I am sure Waymo just like Baidu will make their way in cities. Maybe even surrounding sprawlings. In some areas they will support or even replace public transport where they are allowed. Tesla's offer is something different. Tesla will offer Robo Taxi everywhere. Not on fixed routes like Baidu and Waymo. Waymo may succeed in Phoenix, Austin, New York City. Tesla will succeed everywhere else. "Unlike Tesla, Waymo practices under-promising and over-delivering, and has built a Driver that can greatly reduce serious accidents." Simply: Both do both. Show me how they operate on their route from San Franzisko to Yellowstone National Park. Or Springfield Illonois to Amsterdam Dunes. And then show me how many accidents FSD has produced compared to Waymo.
Everything you wrote sounds right! I'm just eager now to see those next big scaling steps to confirm it. But everything looks so positive right now. Slow and steady...
@@wolfgangpreier9160 Tesla hasn't done one driverless trip yet. All of your talk of Tesla operating "everywhere" is speculation. Level-2 ADAS trips are just a guy driving his Tesla around with driver-assist. Going driverless is a very different ballgame. And Waymo is operating in the Phoenix "surrounding sprawlings", with a 315 sq.-mi. service area. They'll soon serve the entire Phoenix metro area when they activate the service on freeways in the coming months, then add large chunks of service area every few months. They're going slowly because they have a company policy of "responsible scaling". Your comment about how many accidents FSD has produced compared to Waymo shows you don't know what you're talking about. You're comparing apples to bananas. FSD is probably worse now than the Waymo gen-3 Firefly driver was in 2015 when Google first did a driverless trip in Austin, in a very easy neighborhood on rigged trips with no traffic. Waymo I-Pace robotaxis use the gen-5 Driver, showing that Waymo has scientifically been improving their sensor-suite for real Level-4 driving even as they could already go driverless. Waymo first pulled the driver in Chandler AZ in 2017, using the gen-4 Driver, in their bet-the-company moment. To do this, they had to be near certain that no big accident would occur. Tesla is nowhere near that level, and FSD doesn't have good-enough sensors to achieve millions of safe miles between any incidents. FSD has a very long way to go to just legally be able to pull the driver on one test car in a real city and not cause problems. And if they were to do driverless testing anyway, they would have legal problems. In any state, an ADS driverless system on public roads legally has to have a fallback system, using the SAE J3016 Level-4 language, that keeps the car safe, in a "fallback condition", when the ADS fails at the dynamic driving task, which means is about to crash. FSD has no such system, it just sometimes veers into stuff, and Tesla doesn't even seem to be thinking about one. An FSD that just sometimes crashes all of the sudden will be illegal to use driverless, even in Texas, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona.
@@ZacharyShahan yeah, so am I. The next big one is giving passenger-only public freeway rides in Phoenix to their Trusted Testers with NDAs, and if that goes well, limited public paid rides on some freeways. At some point next year I expect full unlimited public freeways rides, followed by big Phoenix expansions that will soon serve the whole metro area. And Austin will open to public rides this year, with more expansions in SF and LA steadily happening, and maybe limited LAX service if they dare. The only thing that can stop them now is a big bad accident or two.
The people most likely to buy electric cars, like Tesla, are often those who care about the environment and social issues. However, Elons views on X are upsetting many of these potential customers. This overlap could hurt Tesla’s future sales because the same people who would normally be excited about buying a Tesla might now look for other options that align better with their values.
We can't tell for sure if the backlash from Musk's big opinions (and participation in conspiracies) will have long term impact, but certainly it might take a time for things to wash away, and I imagine some more effort on his part to demonstrate how he's not as biased as he currently appears. The fact that it seems he did a U-turn on many things, and in people who supported him for 15 years+ is not a good look. People that feel fooled, betrayed or else can ressent it and not forget easily. Getting political only adds more reasons some will certainly not want to pay money to fund his ideas. I don't believe a great product makes up for the worst image ever. The image is part of the product in people's minds.
@@1dedrer Elon is betting everything on his FSD robotaxi dream, with not much in the new model pipeline. That doesn't look like a good bet, considering that his current FSD driver is barely able to go an hour in light traffic without some help. A real robotaxi in a large fleet will need to be really safe over many tens of millions of miles, and almost completely eliminate serious faulty accidents; in other words like Waymo. Elon appears to be out of touch and full of himself like an aging dictator. Both he and Tesla are in need of some professional help.
"and participation in conspiracies" funny, what about conspiracies when they are really shooting at you? I say Geezer Joe Biden and Mrs. Kamala Harris ne Marx have shown their real skin colors and their real interest when they put Elon on the public governemental approved "shoot at first sight" list. You forgot the first rule: "Do not bet against Elon".
@@charliedoyle7824 "with not much in the new model pipeline" Tesla is not Ford to deliver a new front bumper every second year. Cars are not the goal of Tesla. Maybe you should read their master plan first. Their goal is to help mankind on their way to the use of sustainable energy. Not building beautiful cars for little boys. YOU should mature first before demanding others need professional help.
Eisenhower was only a freshly minted one star general on December 7, 1941. By the end of the war he was a five star general running the US war in Europe because he understood logistics. This is the same thing as Elon Musk doing business in America today.
Waymo has been doing this kind of growth for several years now. It's just that the numbers are getting large, and the Tesla fans were programmed by Elon to think Waymo was a joke, so they scoffed at how Waymo was "playing in their little sandbox with their expensive toys".
Since 2022, Waymo has been steadily expanding their Phoenix and San Fran passenger-only territories for public paid rides, adding L.A. and Austin, testing in dozens of other cities, expanding their airport service in Phoenix, improving their sensor suite, solving emergency-vehicle and construction issues, and all without a serious incident over millions of passenger-only dense-city miles. In 2022 they knew they were ready to expand to pretty much any city, but they laid low and expanded responsibly, unlike Cruise. Unlike Tesla, Waymo practices under-promising and over-delivering, and has built a Driver that can greatly reduce serious accidents.
I'm glad to see how the rest of the self-driving enthusiast world, including Zachary, is now waking up to how good Waymo is.
I am sure Waymo just like Baidu will make their way in cities. Maybe even surrounding sprawlings. In some areas they will support or even replace public transport where they are allowed.
Tesla's offer is something different. Tesla will offer Robo Taxi everywhere. Not on fixed routes like Baidu and Waymo. Waymo may succeed in Phoenix, Austin, New York City. Tesla will succeed everywhere else.
"Unlike Tesla, Waymo practices under-promising and over-delivering, and has built a Driver that can greatly reduce serious accidents." Simply: Both do both. Show me how they operate on their route from San Franzisko to Yellowstone National Park. Or Springfield Illonois to Amsterdam Dunes. And then show me how many accidents FSD has produced compared to Waymo.
Everything you wrote sounds right! I'm just eager now to see those next big scaling steps to confirm it. But everything looks so positive right now. Slow and steady...
@@wolfgangpreier9160 Tesla hasn't done one driverless trip yet. All of your talk of Tesla operating "everywhere" is speculation. Level-2 ADAS trips are just a guy driving his Tesla around with driver-assist. Going driverless is a very different ballgame. And Waymo is operating in the Phoenix "surrounding sprawlings", with a 315 sq.-mi. service area. They'll soon serve the entire Phoenix metro area when they activate the service on freeways in the coming months, then add large chunks of service area every few months. They're going slowly because they have a company policy of "responsible scaling".
Your comment about how many accidents FSD has produced compared to Waymo shows you don't know what you're talking about. You're comparing apples to bananas.
FSD is probably worse now than the Waymo gen-3 Firefly driver was in 2015 when Google first did a driverless trip in Austin, in a very easy neighborhood on rigged trips with no traffic. Waymo I-Pace robotaxis use the gen-5 Driver, showing that Waymo has scientifically been improving their sensor-suite for real Level-4 driving even as they could already go driverless. Waymo first pulled the driver in Chandler AZ in 2017, using the gen-4 Driver, in their bet-the-company moment. To do this, they had to be near certain that no big accident would occur. Tesla is nowhere near that level, and FSD doesn't have good-enough sensors to achieve millions of safe miles between any incidents.
FSD has a very long way to go to just legally be able to pull the driver on one test car in a real city and not cause problems. And if they were to do driverless testing anyway, they would have legal problems. In any state, an ADS driverless system on public roads legally has to have a fallback system, using the SAE J3016 Level-4 language, that keeps the car safe, in a "fallback condition", when the ADS fails at the dynamic driving task, which means is about to crash. FSD has no such system, it just sometimes veers into stuff, and Tesla doesn't even seem to be thinking about one. An FSD that just sometimes crashes all of the sudden will be illegal to use driverless, even in Texas, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona.
@@ZacharyShahan yeah, so am I. The next big one is giving passenger-only public freeway rides in Phoenix to their Trusted Testers with NDAs, and if that goes well, limited public paid rides on some freeways. At some point next year I expect full unlimited public freeways rides, followed by big Phoenix expansions that will soon serve the whole metro area. And Austin will open to public rides this year, with more expansions in SF and LA steadily happening, and maybe limited LAX service if they dare. The only thing that can stop them now is a big bad accident or two.
The people most likely to buy electric cars, like Tesla, are often those who care about the environment and social issues. However, Elons views on X are upsetting many of these potential customers. This overlap could hurt Tesla’s future sales because the same people who would normally be excited about buying a Tesla might now look for other options that align better with their values.
Ford never understood the gigafactory in Nevada and that is how many years ago???
We can't tell for sure if the backlash from Musk's big opinions (and participation in conspiracies) will have long term impact, but certainly it might take a time for things to wash away, and I imagine some more effort on his part to demonstrate how he's not as biased as he currently appears.
The fact that it seems he did a U-turn on many things, and in people who supported him for 15 years+ is not a good look. People that feel fooled, betrayed or else can ressent it and not forget easily. Getting political only adds more reasons some will certainly not want to pay money to fund his ideas.
I don't believe a great product makes up for the worst image ever. The image is part of the product in people's minds.
Really, are you betting against Elon???
@@1dedrer Elon is betting everything on his FSD robotaxi dream, with not much in the new model pipeline. That doesn't look like a good bet, considering that his current FSD driver is barely able to go an hour in light traffic without some help. A real robotaxi in a large fleet will need to be really safe over many tens of millions of miles, and almost completely eliminate serious faulty accidents; in other words like Waymo.
Elon appears to be out of touch and full of himself like an aging dictator. Both he and Tesla are in need of some professional help.
"and participation in conspiracies" funny, what about conspiracies when they are really shooting at you?
I say Geezer Joe Biden and Mrs. Kamala Harris ne Marx have shown their real skin colors and their real interest when they put Elon on the public governemental approved "shoot at first sight" list.
You forgot the first rule: "Do not bet against Elon".
@@charliedoyle7824 "with not much in the new model pipeline" Tesla is not Ford to deliver a new front bumper every second year.
Cars are not the goal of Tesla.
Maybe you should read their master plan first.
Their goal is to help mankind on their way to the use of sustainable energy.
Not building beautiful cars for little boys.
YOU should mature first before demanding others need professional help.
"Conspiracy theory" is a term invented by the CIA to put public tinfoil hats on people who don't stay on government narratives.
Eisenhower was only a freshly minted one star general on December 7, 1941. By the end of the war he was a five star general running the US war in Europe because he understood logistics. This is the same thing as Elon Musk doing business in America today.
Dwight served his country. Elon only serves his wallet - and he does that best when he shuts the f**k up.