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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 มิ.ย. 2024
- Over the past two decades, successive government experiments have almost doubled Pakistan's public debt mountain. The current crisis is a by-product of many things: expenditures, a foreign-savings financed economic growth model, a currency in freefall, and political disarray. Given that debt levels are at an unsustainable level, default seems more likely day by day.
Tabadlab is convening a policy roundtable to discuss the possibility - or the inevitability - of a sovereign default,. What happens to Pakistan and Pakistanis in case of a default? Are there still ways to avoid the worst outcomes?
Panellists:
- Maheen Rehman - Chief Executive Officer, InfraZamin Pakistan
- Khurram Husain - Business and Economy Journalist
- Murtaza Syed - Former Acting Governor, State Bank of Pakistan
- Mosharraf Zaidi - Chief Executive Officer, Tabadlab
Chapters:
00:00 Introduction
02:10 Is Default Inevitable?
6:17 Is restructuring one of the measures?
7:30 Are these necessary measures the same ones we have been talking about for the entirety of our lifetimes?
9:14 Have we already defaulted or is there something we can still do to avoid it?
12:13 Is Maheen Rahman hopeful?
13:41 Is restructuring the only way to prevent the default?
17:41 While there is extreme inflation, the urban middle class still seems to be carrying out their day-to-day activities seemingly unaffected. What might be the reason for this?
20:00 Are we already in the midst of those dire consequences of the quantum of inequality that has been curated?
22:36 Is it alarming that due to irresponsible policies, people want to pull out of the system (banks)?
28:30 What are the policy measures Pakistan could have taken to not be in this position?
32:40 What's going to change this time if we get the breathing space and debt relief?
37:25 What evidence of better decision-making do we have to have the hope of avoiding default?
45:25 What is the impact of this on ordinary Pakistanis?
49:55 Accountability and assurances to the common citizens
53:05 How to bring awareness to policy-making and business elite to walk away from the wrong road? - บันเทิง
Indian living in NYC here, thanks for getting actual experts and not politicians for this debate. Learnt a lot, great conversation and excellent moderation. Found the comment around the geopolitical lynchpin very interesting, love to double click into that further.
Without watching the video, I bet that geopolitical "lynch"pin is India? No on craves acknowledgement like Indians, Pakistanis aren't far behind but the intensity of desire to get noticed in Indians is cringe levels.
This comment is still understandable without the word NYC.
Thanks
I am surprised there is no mention of reducing military spending or de-nuclearization. I guess there was a military man with a gun standing behind the camera.
They did mention if Pakistan defaults it will cause instability for China, India and Iran...which might prompt these countries to convince the world financial bodies to help Pakistan get out of default. Did these guys write their PHD thesis in Blackmail Economics?
They are living in dream
I mean loha-bratha alone can fund and run their economy. They should look upto loha-bratha.and they don't need India
aapne mere muh ki baat bol di.....the lady after talking sense @44.50 min put same geo-strategic churan on the table.
Absolutely. These bunch are just the real reason of default. They're hiding the real reason behind vocabulary
Last time I checked, India has 100million people below poverty line. Why doesn’t India reduce its military budget and raise their standard of living?
Pakistan cannot reduce its military budget as long as there are 0.5 million soldiers deployed at the border. Both countries should de-escalate and instead focus on its own people.
More export fine but what to export and where. What is the competitiveness of Pakistani goods and services.
Excellent discussion. Thanks a lot Tabadlab for this.
Very nice discussion. Thanks for organising and sharing.
Excellent discussion... Let's hope for the best...
Many thanks for doing this insightful discussion. Such talks should be held regularly. These are the sort of thorough professionals who should be enabled to run Pakistan's finance and economic affairs.
Do not think at all the nIndia is willing to chip in! India needs to invest in good fences and not in the trade with Pakistan.
India should get 100million people out of poverty before “chipping in”
brilliant discussion!
Guiding principles it seems -
1. Packaging is more important than content.
2. Being anchored to reality is irrelevant. Making right sounding noises more important.
Lage raho jargon bhai...make loud noises with confidence...interesting to see where you guys land up with this attitude and approach.
she is right, modi wants muslims votes this time, you can see his outreach, i think modi will help them, to win muslim votes, but he will still not get muslims vote.
@@djrandomwalker7656 If Modi tries to appease Muslims and that too by favoring Pakistan, he will lose his core constituency and thus surely lose the 2024 election.
The best approach for Modi would be to do a limited conflict with Pakistan. That would ensure victory in 2024.
@@djrandomwalker7656 Modi do get a lot of Muslim votes but mainly non-Sunni. Modi is only approaching poor Muslims who have no connection with Pakistan.
@Syedbakeruddin Bekar what nonsense are you bakking bekar bakri?
Pakistan was formed by its founders to further the idea of "Two Nation Theory"! Jinnah said, Muslims are superior and they cannot live with Hindus so they chose to separate. They claim they are a superior race who were born to rule Indians and Indians were born to be slaves to Muslims. They have utter contempt for Hindus. In a referendum in 1940s more than 90% Muslims of British India voted to separate from India! They named their nation Pakistan! Implying they are pure and we Indians are impure!! Then they attacked India 4 times, backstabbed us many times...no Indian wants anything to do with Pakistan. Let the Pakistanis be superior on their side of the border. Leave us Indians alone. If Pakistanis try to do too much terrorism I would propose that India launches missiles and destroys Pakistan completely.
🤣🤣🤣🤣
Murtaza syed is well rounded professional
Pakistan always punched above its weight without increasing its weights, now it has got no more energy as Geo political changes has dried up the cheque.
Everything is great when usa is allah
Yes there is a time where lot of free lunch are available this time none 😊☺
Awesomeness 👌
Murtaza Syed shouldn't leave Pakistan. He is a hope for the country to regain its economic balance when countey is freed from the clutches of the corrupt Generals and current government.
Thanks to all four…excellent discussion
I would appreciate if one of the upcoming programmes thoroughly discusses the pros and cons of the CPEC project and how it has impacted our external sector.
I would like to congratulate Musharraf on at least starting this discussion. There was much talk on the need for reform, restructuring and course correction. However it was very frustrating because there was such a paucity of ideas on what actually needs to be done in practical terms. Maybe there needs to be another round table with people with a more practical outlook.
I have not seen any discussion how to fix it, so disappointing.
Wo lady boli na.....they are in geo-strategic location and neighbour will not be afford a unstable Pak. All edu have same churan to sell...that is why their PM keep travelling to beg.
Did they say the 78% debt to GDP is just external? And the domestic on top of that ? I am not sure it's correct, it's probably all in is 78 ?
I was surprised to see that there are at least four Pakistani that are educated and speak intelligently in English….there is hope
Pakistan has the most flourishing successful black market economy, prosperous smuggling system. All the countries of the world are envious of Pakistan creative black market economy and creative smuggling system. Pakistanis are very creative, inventive in corruption, smuggling, black market. Pakistan find creative ways to make money by corruption, black market system, smuggling. In Pakistan, Corruption, black market, smuggling is mot a crime, illegal, actually it's all normal. Pakistan only know black market, smuggling, corruption. For Pakistan, Corruption, black market, smuggling is not an issue.
@44.50, the lady after talking sense put the same old churan on the table....we are in a geo-strategic location and our neighbour will not afford our meltdown.....disillusioned.
They education is gone into understanding that their geo-strategic location is important. No wonder why their PM keep travelling to beg.
If nothing else inspires hope in Pakistan, a conversation of this quality and intellect would surely do. While successive governments have failed to capitalize on inputs from the really qualified economists of our times, at the core of the solution process (in Khurram Hussain’s concluding remarks) is: “the institutional voices will need to start reflecting a realization that a course correction is long overdue.” To which, Maheen Rehman very rightly and candidly added that the entire notion of ‘political instability directly impacting the economic stability’ needs to be decoupled. And a process of consultation, therefore, should drive “the evolution this conversation needs to undergo.”
I have little knowledge of macroeconomics, but as an industrial engineer believe that Pakistani policy makers have scant regard for efficient allocation of resources as far as industrial economy is concerned. A lot needs to be done to identify a profitable export basket and what needs to be done at the ground level to educate people in making informed resource allocation decisions.
Thank you once again for an extremely informative and an engaging discussion. Perhaps, one day we could expect the Pakistani intelligentsia conducting such critical debates, coherently and with clarity, in our national language, Urdu. Trust me, this is not to disparage the initiative Tabadlab has taken. It merely reflects a forlorn hope that this nation of 230 million people can begin to collectively enhance their conscious understanding of what ails Pakistan.
India is such an important partner in economy of Pakistan. But sadly or don't know what, these bunch never even mentioned the word India (except the lady for one time as she was recalling who her neighbours are!).
Is it hatred? Or something else?
As an indian i learnt a lot about economy as this kind of scenarios do not exist in my country and hence no discussion happens. One think i wanted to say with due respects to the lady she was saying nieghbours will pich in . Thw question is will pakistan accept the aid from neighbours india ?.
Reality check for you... Indian states of Punjab, Andhra, Kerala, Bengal and Rajasthan are on the same path as Sri Lanka and Pakistan. In fact some of them are already in a debt trap and defaulting on payments. So India should use any excess capacity to fix its state economies and let Pakistan boil in its own juices.
India economy is not big enough to Aid Pakistan. Also can you please provide India laws by which India distributes free money? India do have similar issues in power sector and agricultural sector.
You comment shows you have not learnt anything about economy and before that you need to learn about Indian foreign policy.
@bas kir As per Pak Studies Books, Pakistani are azeem kaum, Pakistani have jazba, Pakistani have iman as Muslims have iman. Pakistan have vasil he vasil. Pakistan Army No 1 in world, ISI No 1 in world. Insha Insha General Lal Tope will start Gawaza a Hind and Pakistani sabaj parcham will fly in Delhi. 1 Muslim = 12 Hindus. Pakistan won all the wars against Hindus. Insha Insha Masha Masha sab bakwas ha yeh, bikahri hain Pakistani. Lanat.
@@vinsin328 Lol, Please check how much aid India provided to Sri Lanka and Bangladesh but yes Alami Imdaadi Dehshagard know zilch about economy. Please keep dreaming about Kashmir fatah and keep begging for Imdaad. Even ummah is not giving anything this time 😅
@@vinsin328 what is our economy world knows very well. By the India won't give anything to a terrorist neighbour.
My god so much discussion on default, Pakistan is fully bankrupted. Can not pay 6 trillion pkr circulating debt. Forget about $ debt. Next year all federal tax revenue will go for debt. That is 7 trillions pkr, interest rate will go up 5% next fy 24, that is 25%. $ will cost 350 pkr.
Lenders to Pakistan: Hit the road jack, don't you come back no more no more no more, hit the road jack (Ray Charles, 1961):
PK: Oh banker oh banker oh banker don't treat me so mean, ... don't treat me this way, I will be back on my feet some day.
This session was a fantastic illustration of how conversations in all walks of life in Pakistan go. The elephant in the room sits there smiling while the wet intellectuals tip toe around him.
You want the facts jack? you can't handle the facts. When a drunkard head of the household spends lions share of his borrowed monies on his "habit", which offers no benefit and certainly no economic growth; the only way out for the family is for the creditors to stop lending him money. Throw him on the road and see if he has the will to kick the "habit". Otherwise you are only prolonging the inevitable; because his "habit" will get the better of him.
So for the sake of the "Les Misérables", I hope the lenders say: Hit the road jack, don't you come back no more no more no more, hit the road jack - and I hope that JACK says that his "habit" will have to pack his things and go!. Fat chance - but if you all were so bent on hope - then hope for JACK to give the nation a chance, and let go of his "habit"!.
And yes I do have a masters in economics with a foreign accent :-). Your silver lining is your remittances and at the rate your intellect is moving abroad, there maybe a blessing in disguise and your $ inflows may grow meaningfully, reduce government, inflict pain on imports and redirect wasteful govt. spending to domestic consumers and investors by reducing taxes and watch the economy fly Jack!.
😉
Wow, what a slap
If the sole purpose of the discussion is not to be addressed and if the blame is solely being directed towards the politicians, there is no basis for a debate. The fundamental problem lies with a specific individual, referred to as the "True Incumbant." Thus, the debate will commence only when the actual participants in the game and their aspirations for future leadership within the system are brought into consideration.
The nuisance factor is what Pakistans entire economy has and is based on, that's not sustainable. The world is tired of your geopolitical leverage based economy, and sick of paying for it!!!
Hope should be realistic.
Please add urdu subtitles for general population .
Agar ye Kara to Ghar main jutee padenge.
Whatever the minimum foreign reserve you have is borrowed. So you have defaulted practically but not officially declared.
Anchor is optimistic. The guest will have to give lecture at corps commander conference. They are the one who call the shots.
Why the nuclear question was never brought up ? Is Pak willing to stop its nuclear program in return for any outside help ?
We are suffering because of punishment from Allah SWT on Pakistan. Despite being a majority muslim country, we could not abolish interest based Banking system.
Allah SWT hates Munafiqs more than he hates Kafirs. Riba is a major sin in Islam and is not only Haram but also a war against Allah, its clearly mentioned in the Quran.
There are more than 50+ Muslim majority countries, so why only Pakistan. When and how did you talk to Allah? Pakistan is not mentioned in Quran. According to Maududi, this is happening in Pakistan because Pakistan is holding parts of Kashmir or want Kashmir.
@@vinsin328 So, what should Pakistan do? Give away Kashmir to India?
@Syedbakeruddin Bekar
Do you have any doubt that Charging & Giving Riba is Haram ??
The Quran will not help you. You can recite it until you're blue in your face.
The problem is islam !
Achha?!
To Uzbekistan kyu default nahi ho raha hai?
America can't pay America's $33 Trillions debt and even interest on that debt SO why should Pakistan pay it's $30 Billions debt and interest? Nobody should pay their debt. Borrower should blame the lender for lending the money to the borrower.
Wah, kya soch🤣🤣
How do we increase value addition in the products that we export? Right now we dont even have the range or the manufacturing ability to do that, it seems.
Tax to gdp ratios will have to be increased but who will pay the extra taxes? those who are already paying close to 40%? or will we finally have the courage to remove the term "non filer" from our vocabulary?
Nicely done folks! thank you.
Taxes on Army or Fauji Foundations, real estate or DHA alone can increase tax to GDP from 10 to 15%. But that would decrease the army expenditure and luxurious life. Taking traders is another way to increase it by another 1-2 % of GDP. Only china and USA can help Pakistan in increasing value addition via FDI.
Sir lot of problems can be solved for example stopping all extra like cars petrol utilities of officia l paid by public money and cut all subsidies given to already rich people
What if Pakistan make a deal with America, Indians and Europe to pay for Pak removing nuclear arms and reducing army budget? They may solve their financial crises.
In the comments section, those Indians are more concerned than our Pakistanis 🤣🤣🤣
Enjoyed the discussion....rarely get to hear a uniformly well studied group and moderator.
Why you guys talk about terrorism which damage your economy. Your discussion is meaning less if you don't resolve terrorism.
Best solution is dismemberment into 4-5 new nations and then go to IMF for their first ever loans, getting help from west China Russia middle east may be india too, it will solve their problems for long term, and of course free them from corrupt establishment and army generals.
No one speaks of how to bring the economy out of this tailspin. The CAD have to be reduced and then turned positive if possible. They have to start taxing the rich. Defence expenditure has to be reduced for which Pak has to genuinely give up enmity with India. Only way is to accept LAC as international border. If not now, when. Agriculture seems to be doable but huge reforms are required.
Please next time make it in urdu
All talk around how to get aid, nothing on how to cut unnecessary expenditure on defense, taxing rich....their brainy chap are also useless....
These people are talking in islamabad...go to karachi, and other states and you will see poverty and problem.....how disconnected these analyst are.
From this conversation, my belief has been reaffirmed that I am not (and non of us are) a citizen of this country/system that we call Pakistan, but in fact, are HOSTAGES of Pakistan. We, the so-called citizens, are promptly propped up in front of the money-doling institutions of the world when it suits our glorious leaders and once the money is dispersed we are left to our own devices like neglected stepchildren. It is a classic cinderella folktale with only one difference: no fairy godmother or father will help alleviate our predicament. It was sad, but true non the less, to hear Ms. Rehman point out that we are only valuable to our neighbors and the rest of the world as a THREAT of a country that has Weapons of mass destruction.
Yeah, I understand your sentiments about your political leadership. But when you listen to the calibre of the people in this program, at least you know you have the people who can influence the required change.
@@sanjivmathur24 We have always had such calibre of people, but history tells us their advice is seldom heeded. Unless of course they can help convince the international community to keep doling out money or favors. You cannot expect leaders with short term vision to understand the value of long term planning. Its like trying to convince a person who belives that the world is flat of its roundness.🙃😄
@@stonedsilence no one will lift you if you are not ask for it or by yourself. Others will always look for their own interest.
Indian living in Philly..
pakistan has to be more conservative in its assessments and ambitions. it makes multi-lateral debt interest payments by borrowing from chinese commercial banks. (you cant do that if you love the people of your country)
do not compete with india in trade!! (the scale will kill you)
ppl will use you guys!!
there is a trade war happening .. integrate yourself -- if not with india then Bangladesh, Nepal and SL.
Just don’t understand y they r discussing about what could have done when they should have done right at the beginning?. Guess out of 220 million Islamic people not one has ability to guide pakistan properly at policy level. Either way happy to see they got some good brains but equally sad that they not being used at right places.
You are not right. Hindus are not majority in Pakistan.
Everything will fall in place once ghulam J&K is vacated. 👈
Pakistan officially economy may default but the country will not collapse financially because there is the a parallel black economy and well as the drug money economy. These transactions happen through hawala.
Chhodo Kal Ki Baate Kal Ki Baat Puraani
Forget the past. It’s a bygone era.
Naye Daur Mein Likhenge Mil Kar Nayi Kahani
We will together write a new story in the new era.
Hum Bhikharistanni sorry Hum Pakistani
Pak is at stage where you will have to give up one thing. If by usa you will have to support more in ukraine war. If you want neighbours help you will have to give up kashmir. Just don't expect anything free now as you guys don't have capacity.
56:50 after a long time I have seen a Pakistani say khuda haafiz instead of Allah haafiz... well that's progress indeed!! Keep going at it and you will be out of economic troubles in 15-20 years
🤣🤣🤣 what an observation
You've already defaulted. Got enuff paracetamol?
What’s with the fake American accent of the host? I looked him up & he lived in the US for two years, twenty yrs ago. I guess that’s enough for Pakistanis to get a life time accenr 😂
Excellent program.. Musharraf Zaidi it’s always pleasure to listen to you. Compliments 🎉