Love how this aged, Dodgers basically had 3 starters and won the world series. Love you Trev! This is why some people still go off the eye test and analytics together.
I think you hit the nail on the head. It's true that the bullpen was way overused, and batters got too many looks at them, but I think Vogt's hands were tied too. He lost Bieber and McKenzie early in the year, and Logan Allen was demoted for being terrible. Vogt's rotation was basically reduced to two second-year pitchers (one nearly ace material, one missing half the season due to injury) and a career minor leaguer journeyman. He got Boyd and Cobb late in the season, but Cobb was old and still getting hurt constantly. And when it came down to the playoffs, pretty much every starting pitcher except Boyd (and Bibee in LCS Game 5) proved to be less effective than most of the bullpen arms. It was either let the starters go 5+ innings and get shelled or overuse the bullpen. Btw, if you want to see how unsustainable this kind of workload is for a reliever (~80 games a year), just look at how many times Bryan Shaw pitched for Cleveland over the years. His average games per year (playoffs included) is 76, and it jumps to 79 if you exclude his awful 2022. He pitched 86 times total in 2016 and it ended with him giving up the biggest go-ahead run in history. He pitched 81 times in 2021 (no playoffs!) and he fell off a cliff the next year.
If you have 13 pitchers on the team, (5 starters and 8 relievers), if they each just face the entire opposing lineup once each appearance and do it every other game figure that's 2 innings each, that'd get them through 6 games.
@@kevinrusch3627 no room for error though. You literally need everything to go perfect and we all know it doesn’t. That’s why this has become too over engineered.
Clase pitched in 74 games this season, 72 of those were starting a fresh inning and pitching exactly 3 outs. He had a .1 where he blew the save and a 2 inning stint against the Yankees. 8 times he threw 20 or more pitches with a high of 27, threw 28 last night. You can't baby a guy with the same exact situation all season and then think he can just adapt come playoff time. Even as a youth baseball coach, I know I have to work kids in a specific way if I want to see success from them. If this is how you plan to use guys in the playoffs, you need to do the same thing during the regular season
But what were the Guardians supposed to do? Not put them out there? The bullpen was their strength. If they were going to win the ALCS, it had to be because of the bullpen. They just simply didn't execute and blew those save opps or failed to hold.
Nothing wrong with riding your pen, I think he even says they didn’t really have a choice, but he is saying maybe don’t pitch them so much in the regular season. Find someone like a starter who can just eat innings even if they aren’t great.
Cleveland's starting pitching was the weak point of the team the whole season. Pretty much the only thing missing from the team. If we still had Bieber the strategy could've been a bit different.
I also think it has something to do with the same reason you get starters out too soon, which is you don't want the hitters to see them too much. The 3 guys for Cleveland were gassed coming into the series with the Yankees and they pitched every other game. Managers should reconsider bullpen use, particularly in 7 game series. Unless the guy is elite, the hitters are going to figure him out the more they see him. I really feel like Vogt's strategy was going to fail even worse if the series went deep.
Steven’s method was flawed because putting everyone out there someone will have an off night go look back at the box scores like clockwork 2 of the guys had an off night and others were pulled prematurely
The funniest part to me of this is as soon as one guy starts doing it (Hinch in this case) everyone else feels like if they don't do it, It almost cost the cubs in 16 almost cost Vogt in game 5 when he had to use Eli Morgan in the 7th because he used his best guy in the 3rd inning of a 0-0 game. I think bullpen guys should be used way differently than they are but the save stat keeps teams from doing that. bases loaded, 2 outs in the 6th with Tatis up is when you're best guy should come in, pitching the 9th to the 8-9-1 hitters isn't the pressure spot. But why guys take out so quick is crazy, Mathew Boyd had 2 innings 5 ks and 33 pitches and he pulled him in game 5 in a 0-0 game. just doesn't make sense to bring Cade Smith in the face 9-1-2 in the 3rd inning
Orel pitched 42 innings in the 1988 post season. Out of 12 games. Finished with 2 complete games in world series. Now we hope Yamamoto can go 5 innings. I wouldn't bet on the Dodgers getting away with this pitching but Maybe they can slug it out.
Love the insight! Good to see the stats but also the batters are seeing the same 3 guys over and over. Thoughts on how basically every pitcher throws 95 with a "wipe out slider" and little variation?
I seriously hate the idea of a bullpen game which was discussed as a Dodger strategy for game 4 possibly. Im a yankees fan and I hate the short leash Boome has also the starters have to nut up
Those guys had to pitch so much because Cleveland didn't really have great starting pitching. Mo had several seasons over 70ip as a reliever. The man was definitely a unicorn.
From another perspective, if we don't want baseball spectatorship to drop further, we should resist the idea of abandoning starters. Professional baseball is a spectator reliant sport. It just is. Sports fans in all sports need icons, heroes and stars to maintain their excitement. Baseball stars are typically starters and hitters. Eliminating a whole pool of baseball stars would be a very poor choice for the sport. Casual and even quite devoted fans will have no interest in watching bullpens rapidly rotate through each game.
@@TrevorMayBaseball I think Clase's issue was that he was leaving it over the plate more in the playoffs - all yeah he was throwing up and in consistently, during the playoffs he was either missing his spots or trying to pitch more "traditionally" and got got.
Trevor, you played the game at the highest level, so you do know what you are talking about. However, to be honest as I know you always are, the investments teams made for starting pitchers is everything behind this. They don't pay relievers the same as they do starters, so organizations are going to be so careful with the starters arms then they are with a lesser paid reliever. As soon as a big salaried starter gets close to 75 pitches in a start, they get the bullpen going. They don't seem to care if bullpen guy has thrown every day the past week, they don't have that guy tied up to a multi-year whatever million dollar contract. Come playoff time, those bullpen guys have to be exhausted by the number of get ups and games they actually pitched in. Meanwhile, very wealthy Mr. Starter is asked to go 5 innings, or 85 pitches (whichever comes first) regardless if it's a start in May or Game 7 of the NLCS. Riding the bullpen fails in the playoffs because the arms in the bullpen were abused for 162 and now are asked to throw for another month almost every day. Oh and great line about Phil Maton.
What's your point? The 2015 Royals had 2 relievers who threw more than the 65-68 appearance sweet spot he mentioned: Kelvin Herrera had 72 appearances Wade Davis had 69 appearances They both did fine in the postseason. But some of their other bullpen guys sucked in the postseason and they were at that 68 appearance threshold and none of their other bullpen guys were even over 50 appearances in the regular season. The Guards used 4 guys over 70 times in the regular season and then used them just about every game in the postseason and fell off hard
@@zacharyboblitt1244 the 2014 royals had 5 starters go over 180 innings… the 2024 guardians had…. 0. When you overuse your bullpen in the regular season, it comes back to haunt you in the playoffs. It’s cumulative and that’s Trevor’s point.
74 in 2004 was his most games and a mid year in terms of era but had a lot of saves. 2005 interestingly enough was his best era year and he threw 71 games. his highest amount of raw innings was '96 before he was a closer at 107.2 but in less appearences
The Dodgers had some pretty good starting pitching, though. Cleveland did not. Their starting pitching was not only below average, it was near the bottom.
@@Jarhead2318 2014 Hererra 7th Davis 8th Holland the 9th ----2015 Hocheavar 6th Hererra 7th Davis 8th..then 9th when Holland got hurt...EVERY GAME....lame take by this guy...
Did you even look up their stats before talking out of your ass? Lmao the Cleveland relievers each had 20+ more innings than any of those royals relievers
@@classicamericanoldman1091: The Royals bullpen had a team ERA of 2.62 in 30 playoff games in 2014 and 2015. They allowed one home run in 11 World Series games those two seasons. You're right. They sucked.
@@MrCDER so we won....you did not...since the 50's. My point was that over using the bull pen is not a bad thing..if your bull pen is GREAT...like the Royals had those 2 years.
I think if francona was still coaching Cleveland they would’ve beat the Yankees. Becuase francona tries to get 5 or 6 innings out of his pitchers and uses his elite bullpen he’s alway had there as a backup. But Vogt as soon as the starter starts giving up multiple hits he’s gone and bullpen gets overused
Eh...I kind of agree and I kind of don't. Bibee was getting absolutely shelled in Game 2 of the ALCS. Vogt pulled him because of that and because he knew he'd probably need to start him again on short rest. That part of his strategy actually worked for Game 5, but I'd argue Vogt's pride got in the way and he should've just walked Stanton to get to Chisolm, who was hitting terribly. I think the big problem with Vogt in the playoffs was more of his overuse of PHing players very early in the game, often replacing a player that hadn't even batted yet. Vogt also really had his hands tied with the starting rotation. The only one who consistently performed well was Boyd; the others were getting shelled.
Love how this aged, Dodgers basically had 3 starters and won the world series. Love you Trev! This is why some people still go off the eye test and analytics together.
I think you hit the nail on the head. It's true that the bullpen was way overused, and batters got too many looks at them, but I think Vogt's hands were tied too. He lost Bieber and McKenzie early in the year, and Logan Allen was demoted for being terrible. Vogt's rotation was basically reduced to two second-year pitchers (one nearly ace material, one missing half the season due to injury) and a career minor leaguer journeyman. He got Boyd and Cobb late in the season, but Cobb was old and still getting hurt constantly. And when it came down to the playoffs, pretty much every starting pitcher except Boyd (and Bibee in LCS Game 5) proved to be less effective than most of the bullpen arms. It was either let the starters go 5+ innings and get shelled or overuse the bullpen.
Btw, if you want to see how unsustainable this kind of workload is for a reliever (~80 games a year), just look at how many times Bryan Shaw pitched for Cleveland over the years. His average games per year (playoffs included) is 76, and it jumps to 79 if you exclude his awful 2022. He pitched 86 times total in 2016 and it ended with him giving up the biggest go-ahead run in history. He pitched 81 times in 2021 (no playoffs!) and he fell off a cliff the next year.
I also think that facing the same batters multiple times during a season reduces your overall effectiveness. (The same problem that starters have)
and when you're going to see the same guys over potentially a 7 game series, they're going to fail even worse.
it has to
If you have 13 pitchers on the team, (5 starters and 8 relievers), if they each just face the entire opposing lineup once each appearance and do it every other game figure that's 2 innings each, that'd get them through 6 games.
@@kevinrusch3627 no room for error though. You literally need everything to go perfect and we all know it doesn’t. That’s why this has become too over engineered.
this guy kevin is clueless man
Somewhere, Mike Marshall is looking down and watching this video, thinking "So... Walt sending me out there 106 times in 1974 was a little high?"
Clase pitched in 74 games this season, 72 of those were starting a fresh inning and pitching exactly 3 outs. He had a .1 where he blew the save and a 2 inning stint against the Yankees. 8 times he threw 20 or more pitches with a high of 27, threw 28 last night.
You can't baby a guy with the same exact situation all season and then think he can just adapt come playoff time. Even as a youth baseball coach, I know I have to work kids in a specific way if I want to see success from them. If this is how you plan to use guys in the playoffs, you need to do the same thing during the regular season
This why Jordan Lyles was still getting contracts with a 5 ERA. Throwing 200 innings of 5 run ball isn’t useless.
Jim Brower pitched in 89 games for the Giants in 2004. He was a decent pitcher but was never the same after that season.
On bullpens in the playoffs: would love to see a breakdown of the 2015 Royals pen
Trevor May is a GOAT
But what were the Guardians supposed to do? Not put them out there? The bullpen was their strength. If they were going to win the ALCS, it had to be because of the bullpen. They just simply didn't execute and blew those save opps or failed to hold.
we also saw the world series runner up and arguably the winner ride their bullpen last year
Nothing wrong with riding your pen, I think he even says they didn’t really have a choice, but he is saying maybe don’t pitch them so much in the regular season. Find someone like a starter who can just eat innings even if they aren’t great.
@@sebastianzell525 There is a reason why they were runner ups. And the winners really didn't have a great bullpen
This didn't age well
except the dodgers in this past postseason. they were lights out for 30 someodd innings
Cleveland's starting pitching was the weak point of the team the whole season. Pretty much the only thing missing from the team. If we still had Bieber the strategy could've been a bit different.
I also think it has something to do with the same reason you get starters out too soon, which is you don't want the hitters to see them too much. The 3 guys for Cleveland were gassed coming into the series with the Yankees and they pitched every other game. Managers should reconsider bullpen use, particularly in 7 game series. Unless the guy is elite, the hitters are going to figure him out the more they see him. I really feel like Vogt's strategy was going to fail even worse if the series went deep.
Steven’s method was flawed because putting everyone out there someone will have an off night go look back at the box scores like clockwork 2 of the guys had an off night and others were pulled prematurely
Caint wait to see you talk about this play with Cole not covering first base lol
I’d love to see this breakdown for the two teams still in it.
Great videos Trev, love the breakdowns like this
Completely agree. Cleveland's strategy was doomed from the start. They were lucky not to be swept.
Trevor I’d like for you to do a breakdown of the Tigers postseason I bet it’s similar
The funniest part to me of this is as soon as one guy starts doing it (Hinch in this case) everyone else feels like if they don't do it, It almost cost the cubs in 16 almost cost Vogt in game 5 when he had to use Eli Morgan in the 7th because he used his best guy in the 3rd inning of a 0-0 game. I think bullpen guys should be used way differently than they are but the save stat keeps teams from doing that. bases loaded, 2 outs in the 6th with Tatis up is when you're best guy should come in, pitching the 9th to the 8-9-1 hitters isn't the pressure spot. But why guys take out so quick is crazy, Mathew Boyd had 2 innings 5 ks and 33 pitches and he pulled him in game 5 in a 0-0 game. just doesn't make sense to bring Cade Smith in the face 9-1-2 in the 3rd inning
Orel pitched 42 innings in the 1988 post season. Out of 12 games. Finished with 2 complete games in world series. Now we hope Yamamoto can go 5 innings. I wouldn't bet on the Dodgers getting away with this pitching but Maybe they can slug it out.
Trevor May would be an outstanding manager or pitching coach.
Love the insight! Good to see the stats but also the batters are seeing the same 3 guys over and over. Thoughts on how basically every pitcher throws 95 with a "wipe out slider" and little variation?
LMAO old smarty Trevor this did not age too well. Dodgers WS champions 2024
I seriously hate the idea of a bullpen game which was discussed as a Dodger strategy for game 4 possibly. Im a yankees fan and I hate the short leash Boome has also the starters have to nut up
Those guys had to pitch so much because Cleveland didn't really have great starting pitching. Mo had several seasons over 70ip as a reliever. The man was definitely a unicorn.
Trevor ur so underrated
Mo pitched 85 times in 2004. Your point still stands, just thought it was interesting
From another perspective, if we don't want baseball spectatorship to drop further, we should resist the idea of abandoning starters. Professional baseball is a spectator reliant sport. It just is. Sports fans in all sports need icons, heroes and stars to maintain their excitement. Baseball stars are typically starters and hitters. Eliminating a whole pool of baseball stars would be a very poor choice for the sport. Casual and even quite devoted fans will have no interest in watching bullpens rapidly rotate through each game.
I’d be interested to hear the same stuff about Clase since he had the biggest fall off out of that bullpen
He just got got. All of his metrics were exactly the same and his command wasn't glaringly different.
@@TrevorMayBaseball I think Clase's issue was that he was leaving it over the plate more in the playoffs - all yeah he was throwing up and in consistently, during the playoffs he was either missing his spots or trying to pitch more "traditionally" and got got.
Can someone send this to the Brewers
Trevor, you played the game at the highest level, so you do know what you are talking about. However, to be honest as I know you always are, the investments teams made for starting pitchers is everything behind this. They don't pay relievers the same as they do starters, so organizations are going to be so careful with the starters arms then they are with a lesser paid reliever. As soon as a big salaried starter gets close to 75 pitches in a start, they get the bullpen going. They don't seem to care if bullpen guy has thrown every day the past week, they don't have that guy tied up to a multi-year whatever million dollar contract. Come playoff time, those bullpen guys have to be exhausted by the number of get ups and games they actually pitched in. Meanwhile, very wealthy Mr. Starter is asked to go 5 innings, or 85 pitches (whichever comes first) regardless if it's a start in May or Game 7 of the NLCS. Riding the bullpen fails in the playoffs because the arms in the bullpen were abused for 162 and now are asked to throw for another month almost every day. Oh and great line about Phil Maton.
This feels like a Dodgers hate video pre WS
Tell that to the 2015 Kansas City Royals my friend.
Thought the exact same thing. 2014 numbers were even better, just came up 90ft short….
What's your point?
The 2015 Royals had 2 relievers who threw more than the 65-68 appearance sweet spot he mentioned:
Kelvin Herrera had 72 appearances
Wade Davis had 69 appearances
They both did fine in the postseason. But some of their other bullpen guys sucked in the postseason and they were at that 68 appearance threshold and none of their other bullpen guys were even over 50 appearances in the regular season.
The Guards used 4 guys over 70 times in the regular season and then used them just about every game in the postseason and fell off hard
@@ryanwest6529 I can tell you didn’t watch any of the 13-16 Royals…. 2014 was the bullpen year, I even mentioned that.
@@zacharyboblitt1244 the 2014 royals had 5 starters go over 180 innings… the 2024 guardians had…. 0. When you overuse your bullpen in the regular season, it comes back to haunt you in the playoffs. It’s cumulative and that’s Trevor’s point.
I had this concern about riding the bullpen all year long. I knew it was doomed to fail in the playoffs.
Always? The Dodgers are leading the postseason in relief innings.
Not a single one of their relievers was above the 67 appearance mark though.
Kent Tekulve has entered the chat.
bro knows marketing monday
The Royals bullpen was effective in 15.
Ever thought of being a pitching coach?
Wait wait wait. Rivera didn’t pitch in 75 games in 1996 or any other year? I’m legit asking, I thought he did
74 in 2004 was his most games and a mid year in terms of era but had a lot of saves. 2005 interestingly enough was his best era year and he threw 71 games. his highest amount of raw innings was '96 before he was a closer at 107.2 but in less appearences
@@calebcormier9062 yea, he was starter in 95 and not a particularly good one, so he setup for wetteland in 96. Took over as closer in 97
Lukewarm take: Starting pitching as we know it is toast unless it becomes tied to the DH.
I think the Astros in 2022 were the exception not the rule.
Mo Rivera 91, 92? Nah, man.
Seems to be working for the Dodgers so far 🤷♂️
The Dodgers had some pretty good starting pitching, though. Cleveland did not. Their starting pitching was not only below average, it was near the bottom.
Always? 2015 Royals baby 👑
They got length from their starters a few times with Volquez, Guthrie, and Ventura. The Guardians had a starter go 5 once.
Royals 2014 and 2015.....nuff said.
Beat me to it. They leaned heavily on their bullpen.
@@Jarhead2318 2014 Hererra 7th Davis 8th Holland the 9th ----2015 Hocheavar 6th Hererra 7th Davis 8th..then 9th when Holland got hurt...EVERY GAME....lame take by this guy...
Did you even look up their stats before talking out of your ass? Lmao the Cleveland relievers each had 20+ more innings than any of those royals relievers
@@classicamericanoldman1091: The Royals bullpen had a team ERA of 2.62 in 30 playoff games in 2014 and 2015. They allowed one home run in 11 World Series games those two seasons. You're right. They sucked.
@@MrCDER so we won....you did not...since the 50's. My point was that over using the bull pen is not a bad thing..if your bull pen is GREAT...like the Royals had those 2 years.
I think if francona was still coaching Cleveland they would’ve beat the Yankees. Becuase francona tries to get 5 or 6 innings out of his pitchers and uses his elite bullpen he’s alway had there as a backup. But Vogt as soon as the starter starts giving up multiple hits he’s gone and bullpen gets overused
If Vogt had left his starters in there for 5-6 innings (except for Boyd), the Yankees would've been up 5 runs by the time he got to his pen.
@@EASTcoastKILLA2 your stupid aren’t you
Eh...I kind of agree and I kind of don't. Bibee was getting absolutely shelled in Game 2 of the ALCS. Vogt pulled him because of that and because he knew he'd probably need to start him again on short rest. That part of his strategy actually worked for Game 5, but I'd argue Vogt's pride got in the way and he should've just walked Stanton to get to Chisolm, who was hitting terribly. I think the big problem with Vogt in the playoffs was more of his overuse of PHing players very early in the game, often replacing a player that hadn't even batted yet. Vogt also really had his hands tied with the starting rotation. The only one who consistently performed well was Boyd; the others were getting shelled.
So you’re saying the dodgers might be cooked
if their starters can't get through 5 innings they may have a problem
@@KBGiantsfan Their offense will keep them in these games. Cole and Rodon might not be givens, so this WS might be much closer than anyone thinks.
okay betting the house on yankees