A friend of mine lost a 60' shrimp trawler and 4 crew when they were hit by a waterspout at night while underway. He described it like this..." we were out in a storm when we suddenly heard the waterspout, then the boat fell about 30' into a hole of water mixed with so much air it wouldn't support the boat. Just as quickly it passed & the sea closed in on the boat from above. He & the mate were in the bridge & swam out to the surface where they caught the life raft. The crew was sleeping below decks and was lost. on the boat
"then the boat fell about 30' into a hole of water mixed with so much air it wouldn't support the boat." that's a point I had not considered - the waterspout churning the water out from under the boat. It's not designed for those stresses.
Having been a sailor for over 65 years, including 30 years in the navy, and I have found your reports very accurate and informative. I appreciate your prefacing your comments with either fact or supposition; although in most case I agree with your conclusions. Well done.
Don't think you have to be a sailor for over 65 years to have experienced bad, if not, treacherous, weather conditions when if you are not "al hatches" down and secure, it is obvious that the yacht will go down. Manslaughter LOL.
In other words u decided to comment on this to tell everyone else how good u are and time served on the sea and your also a expert in accident investigation which your not actually ,, So give yourself a medal pal
@@LouKrieg Because some people would get annoyed if you tried to hand them $100 as a gift, probably. Or they did a hot-take of half of what was said? Hard to know! "Some people, though"!
Its what captains do. They deal with reality and say the truth. Their "principals" are the ones who bother about 'crowd size' and how far they can hit a golf ball ...
Many years ago, before we had all the fancy toys onboard, I used to deliver sailing yachts, mostly between the US and the Caribbean as well as across the Atlantic. I appreciate your level-headed comments. I was not at all suspicious to hear that most of the crew survived, as I felt certain they would have been called on deck just as reported. Yacht crew today are also required to have more safety training than back when I was sailing. It is insulting to hear people blame the crew negligently leaving portholes and hatches open. I sincerely doubt that guests would do this either, as the yacht had AC throughout. However, divers are highly likely to find the main hatch, or in this case doors, open as those trying to escape needed to get out on deck very quickly to be able to exit the yacht. Would that large transom hatch have popped open under the huge pressure of that freek event?More revelations await. When I read about the size of that excessively tall mast, I just couldn't stop thinking about how much windage that whole rig would present, causing the knockdown in such high winds. Beyond leveling the boat on the sea surface, the sheer weight of that massive mast could drag the boat over even further. It is unfair of the builders to immediately rush to conclusions that blame the crew.
You're quite right! Way too many people jumping to conclusions w/out the facts. Apparently, the former captain of the Bayesian (from 2015 - 2020) released a statement giving key details about the structure of the vessel. Among other things, he said the Bayesian actually did not have any windows/portholes that opened. They were all bonded to the hull. Interesting that that theory was so heavily floated by media, when it would've been easy to disprove. Part of the Captain's statement below: "The Downflooding Angle is much more important though in the scenario we are talking about. This is the angle of heel at which water will start to enter the vessel (usually through engine room or accommodation ventilation ducts)… once this starts the vessels is in serious trouble as stability is quickly reduced or lost due to the flooding. The downflooding angle for Bayesian was around 40-45 degrees… much less than the AVS. So, unless the vent dampers are closed (which with HVAC systems and generator running they would NOT be as they need to be open for that), the vessel will start to flood rapidly if heeled more than the downflooding angle. There are no opening windows or portholes, which are all made from laminated marine glass bonded to the hull & superstructure. Other deck hatch / superstructure openings that breach the watertight integrity on Bayesian are on or close to the centerline of the vessel. For these to be taking water if open, the vessel would have to be heeled way beyond the Downflooding Angle mentioned earlier, and hence already flooding via ducting/vents. Only one opening was located far from the centerline, and could be vulnerable to downflooding at lower angles of heel… this is the deck access to the lazarette area towards the stern. However, as it is located on the port (left) side of the aft deck, it would be unlikely to be an initial factor in this scenario as we know that Bayesian was knocked down to starboard, and as such this hatch, even if opened as crew were on deck etc, would have been one of the later parts to submerge. The vessel Bayesian was sound and seaworthy by design, and to my knowledge well maintained as such. However, heeling her to more than around 45 degrees while in normal operational state could result in flooding and subsequent loss if the flooding could not be controlled. The weather conditions that could have created these extreme circumstances can indeed occur with very little warning and being so localized are difficult to prepare for, leaving a very short time for the crew to react. How the vessel came to be taken outside her operation limits is what the investigators will need to determine, which I’m sure they will."
In the final moments, with passengers scrambling to get on deck by opening hatches, and crew likely also opening hatches to facilitate their rescue, it had to be chaos. It's very difficult to assign blame to the crew and others (including the billionaire's wife) who survived. It feels as if the captain is becoming the scapegoat for what was a tragic & devastating weather event. Once the vessel was hit by the waterspout and capsized, it sank quickly. Tragic.
I understand that this vessel had a retractable keel. If the keel was up (retracted) the vessel would be quite unstable in storm conditions I would imagine. I was also a licensed sailing master with a lot of water behind me but I'm not an expert on something like this. I was anchored on the North side of the FL keys one time when a water spout developed and everything happened so fast there wasn't even time to react. Luckily it was a smaller one and didn't go over me so all was fine. It must have been terrifying especially for the passengers. RIP
Our boat was hit by a waterspout, a small tornado. We saw it coming (daylight) and had a minimum of time to prepare. Our deck hatches were closed but not dogged. When the waterspout hit, our hatches were violently and instantly ripped open, outward. The central pressure of a tornado is very low, so the internal air pressure in the boat blew our hatches. I could imagine the crew of Bayesian closing and dogging all the hatches, yet they were blown out from the inside. Further, most windows are designed to resist external pressure, not internal pressure. If the Boat was sufficiently healed, water might enter through blown out windows or hatches. Our boat did heal over, but not enough to reach the deck. Each event is different. We will learn more as the investigation continues.
I have been through a couple of Tornadoes we leave the windows open to prevent the pressure variances during the event, so you are correct I have flown in the eye of hurricanes and through waterspouts doing research..mother nature is very much in control
Some years ago I was caring for a Formula 37PC in a marina in Southern Caifornia… on my weather app I saw a thunder storm approaching… but when it hit it was a Micro burst… this was clocked at 96 mph… it happened in an instant, no warning. It was throwing kayaks through the air and blowing people out of their kayaks into the harbor. I thought the Bimini was going to be shredded for sure… eventhough the boat was tied to the dock it was being blown and listing to starboard then forward and back. The wind and rain and noise was horrific… beyond description! There was two women in a kayak rowing towards me… a young girl of about 12 yrs in the front shouting at the top of her lungs commands! Right - Left straight to her grandmother in the back… I brought them on board and gave them towels… no words were spoken as everyone was in such a state of disbelief. To this day I still hear this young girl screaming in total fear yet complete control the directions to her grandmother. What a soul! Microbursts are nothing to dismiss.
Omg reading this comment just made me cry, I can only imagine how scared that young girl was n for her to step up n take control, wow what an amazing girl and for u to be there n allow them on board is really outstanding. Some ppl just ignore when someone is in distress, so that’s awesome that u helped. But omg I’m so glad everyone was ok.
@@jgsg2620 It’s so disorienting in that kind of situation…. They were scared as hell and I’m watching this crazy surreal situation going on, and then it kicks in… OMG these people are in trouble… I was happy to be able to help.
I had a beautifully treed 1 Acre sloped lot at French Beach BC and a mini tornado knocked almost every one of my trees down without even affecting any of my neighbours on either side
Following this. Thank you for great explanation. My dad's boat was a 75' two-masted schooner, also deemed unsinkable due to a large and heavy keel. He had the boat from 1959 to 2009 and sailed around the world, but before that, the mainmast broke in a race, and he replaced it with a shorter mast and lighter sails. There are many, many ways to die on a boat, even while in dock. Unseasoned sailors need to be made to understand how much peril they are in, no matter the size of the vessel.
A large and heavy keel sounds good to me. I would never go to sea in a boat without a substantial keel, and those single long masts seem impractical for heavy weather.
As an airline pilot I know a thing or two about "microbursts". A microburst occurs when a thunderstorm cell, or convective activity is building. Warm moist air gets sucked up through the center of the cell. Warm air rises. The cell will rapidly build as all of this warm air full of moisture rises to the top of the cell. When the air can hold no more moisture, and this warm moist air has cooled off. The moisture freezes. And the storm can no longer hold it aloft. Cold air sinks! The storm then goes into what they call a dissipating stage. All of this supercooled water and frozen moisture comes crashing down in the middle of the cell. Like a solid wall of water and hail in an elevator shaft. This shaft of water and falling air is extremely powerful and concentrated. Hitting the surface with very strong winds. Dissipating in all directions. Many an airliner has been taken down by microbursts. Just like an airliner, a ship/yacht would fare no better against this very dangerous meteorological event. RIP to all those lost. Like most accidents/tragedies like this, the best outcome would be to learn what happened. And prevent it from ever happening again!
@@avatardirect a Boat would have no escape, it seems. Pilots simply point their nose upward and gun their engines - as long as you don't hit or stall, we're good. Do not try to land during a mb. Go around.
A microburst flattened six houses here in Kansas City back in 1980s. My friend and his kids were across the street watching a kids video ..they came outside and his house was gone They can come suddenly The plane crash in Dallas was the first anyone ever heard of one ( public I mean)
@@kayallen7603 As an airline transport pilot, I can assure you “just gun your engines” sounds like an easy escape, but realize, you have the time it takes to realize it’s happening, then the time it takes to react with power and pitch, and the delay involved in engine thrust, acceleration (which is lengthy due to acceleration of possibly 300,000 lbs), and a hopeful positive rate of climb.
Your candor and humility in sharing information are greatly appreciated. It is refreshing to witness an individual who maintains decency and refrains from asserting every opinion as absolute truth. Thank you for your thoughtful contribution(s). As always.
Full marks to the dive teams and the Italian Authorities who obviously pulled out all the stops to get this gruesome task done. Hope the UK govt sends an official recognition and thanks.
I think the flag state is usually involved in the investigation. That's the way aircraft investigations are handled. Since is was flying a UK flag, they're involved.
Thanks for your videos, I am an American living in Italy for 22 years now. I have been following the Italian news and it seems today they reported that the ship will be raised. They also reported and confirmed that the ship sank stern first and then on its stbd side. This almost confirms that the stern door was left open. The crew probably forgot and while they were on deck securing everything they missed closing the door. They will probably keep the crew in Italy as much as possible with some type of excuse being medical. If I hear anything else I will let you know. Thanks
@@NormanBlaineEchelberry Apparently, the first officer or deckhand was a 22 year old kid, Matthew Griffith according to The Sun UK. He was probably watching TikTok videos while the superyacht was sinking. This might be the same reason why he and the rest of the crew forgot to close the door and do other important tasks. The new generation should be called the TikTok generation, so I’m not surprised by them perhaps being irresponsible since most of these new generation people brains are damaged at the young age already.
I watched the press conference today and the Prosecutor said their first concern was to tend for the survivors' physical and mental health and that they would likely be interviewed again. He said: we have no means to keep anyone in Italy without charge, and that is a fortunate thing because if we had that capacity that would mean we would be living in a society without freedom. Realistically there is no way the surviving victims of this tragedy can be retained in Italy without charge and no charges will be forthcoming within months, perhaps years.
Stern first makes much more sense than yesterday's Guardian report that the vessel sank bow first. Also makes sense of the report that five victims moved to and were found together in a forward port cabin closer to the bow.
I’m a captain for the last 20 years in the Med. I’ve personally seen 4 waterspouts/tornados just North of Sicily, all of them at the same time, and 3 other times single tornados. For me, it seems to be an area prone to Tornados. It’s a sad story that what becomes your SOP and works for years, can one time, be the wrong SOP and you get crucified for it. My heart goes out to the family of the guests and for the crew. There is a go fund me for the crew that have lost all their possessions. Stay safe out there!
@@standup4urrights438indeed, lives were lost… and the dead cannot be helped. The survivors can be helped. The families of the very wealthy guests don’t need financial help, but The Family of the Canadian Antiguan chef can be helped, and crew members may need help.
The crew take a small tiny backpack on board that's it, all there possessions yeah right especially that poor crew member that had that family heirloom mahogany 24 seat dining table onboard, get real.
We have a 38 foot cruiser at water line twin engine aft cabin cruise. We have been boating since 2000 and had this boat since 2005. Early on we learned secure the boat at all times regadless of forcast. This past summer we encountered 3 high wind conditions when anchored and on buoy that were not forcasts. The first was while anchored in 30 feet we were hit with 40MPH winds with gusts to 60. Position system indicated we moved 40 yards during max wind but next morning returned to original rest postion. Other blow we were on bouy in a protected area except to NW wind was not forcast. Waves were 4 feet and wing gusts to 70MPH. The top blew off the waves. We double rope to all buoys. One rope wore half way through. Point is secure your boat when you run and at night. Both time we stayed up all night ready to take action if required.
We went with friends on their pontoon in a giant lake and we realized we were drifting deapite little wind, we added a second anchor. I almost didn’t go because I deal with trauma from nearly drowning as a kid over 35 years ago. My husband was SHOCKED when I actually got into the water in the cove area (I used a life jacket and a buoy). We’ve been together 21 years and that may be the third time I’ve ever gotten into a body of water that wasn’t a gym pool. I am FASCINATED by documentaries and reality shows about ships at sea and people who dive down to shipwrecks for example but I puke never do that. I’m claustrophobic and my now husband didn’t know that or my near drowning and he was a scuba diver working to be on the dive rescue team. I took a one day intro for beginners in our YMCA pool with all the gear and I survived but I told him I would never try it again. He felt awful I even tried it to begin with but was trying to impress him :)
My vessel is only 42 feet long and I am here to tell you that when we get into particularly rough conditions, much less a "storm", every person on the vessel must and does don a life preserver. My family has the suspender style self inflating ones but the rest of the guests put on type 3 (waterskiing style) vests for the duration of the event. If someone refuses to put them on they will not be invited back aboard.
@@HyperionMV That is sensible and should be made law. I don't know why passengers were not woken and given life jackets. It may have been a downburst but if more than 3 rooms has ingressed water and the engine master tried to start the engine and turn the boat towards the harbour the water would shift to that side and list the boat. The boat was turned away from the wind. The film from the other boat shows the mast in front of the bridge and first deck. I believe they tried to turn the boat with the excess water in. That would not only shift the boat but all the stuff in the garage or engine room. That's what capsized it.
@@HyperionMV I am curious about the watch who was showing cushions etc. Was he also putting sun loungers in the tender. Did he tamper with the doors for speed. He first described coming out of lounge and gestures opening saloon doors in upright position. So boat was upright then and he wasn't on the bridge and boat was turned away from and abeam of wind as seen on camera. Was it really a down burst or was it large ingress of water in the squall causing the tilt. 3.53am power outage. So water must have already been in the boat to cause this. How long did that take. He claims to have woken captain at 2am. Plenty of time to steer boat to harbour. Plenty of time to get lifejackets on passengers. I think there wasn't a Watch. I think Watch was asleep and thought it's just a bit rough I will put away furniture etc on deck. Then he woke crew as boat took on water. No one woke passengers. So the crew were mustered around 3.30 and while he woke them and captain water was entering because he must have left a hatch open. The power outage was before the tilt.
I feel for the divers and rescue people involved. It must be horrendous to recover the victims and I am sure they will be haunted by what they saw. The whole situation is devastating and I hope all affected will be supported going forward. Thanks for the informative videos which give common sense and a desire to find the truth amidst all the conjecture and misinformation. Really appreciate it.
Same here, but I feel for the crew also. Because there is always pressure that comes from users, and the threat of losing your job is ever present in those scenarios where 'the customer is always right' and entitlement reigns supreme. Risking being seen as a killjoy, or being raked over the coals for precautions against possible events that seem remote or absurd, adds to this. Compounding this is the effect of alcohol which relaxes inhibitions and you have a very complex situation. The facts will come to light but this is an appalling situation and I am mindful of the need to hold back on judgement. I would hope family and loved ones are keeping their own counsel and not exposing themselves to the ready condemnation that is flooding many commentaries. This channel is a valuable source of information.
@@villagranvicent I feel for all involved in what is a hellish situation and it should go without saying. So much loss and devastation. Of course I feel for those who are grieving but the divers will never forget what they saw and the crew will no doubt be feeling responsible and may also be held legally responsible whilst trying to process that.
I am Italian and I live in Palermo. I listened to the press conference of Cartosio, the prosecutor in charge of the investigation. As he said, it is very likely that there are many co-causes that have intervened, the weather, the behaviour of the crew and maybe other elements. However, there is one thing to say. That night the storm did not start at 4 but at half past two. It was a very violent first part that lasted about half an hour, with very strong wind and heavy rain and then with a break only from the force but not from the rain that continued anyway. Then it was resumed at 4. Strong and with horizontal wind with different direction. If the vessel was not secured the first time, it had already taken the first wave of water and wind at 4 o’clock. This is to say that it is not true that it was sudden and it is not true that it was not known that the rain would come because we had been waiting for it for two days. It was also written in the municipality’s telegram channels. In fact, that night the fishermen did not go out and we had pulled down the umbrellas that we keep on the terraces to prevent the storm that was about to arrive that night from making us fly them away. We will see what comes out of the procedural truth.
I read on a local restaurant page that could see the Bayesian...they had a party onboard the night prior to the tragedy. I think that plays into a lot of the decisions made and timing...
@@julie5316 I’m not sure who you’re referring to, but if you’re responding to me, sorry, but I definitely know what I’m talking about. I have a sailing license, so I’m very familiar with this. All the other vessels and ships were saved; the one closest to the Bayesian performed the correct safety maneuvers well before 4 AM. Apparently, this was not done on the Bayesian. What is said internationally is one thing, what the newspapers report is another, and then there’s what we experience and see ourselves from here. If no one went out that night, there must have been a reason, don’t you think? Moreover, in these days following your comment, details are emerging that all point towards multiple human errors, negligence, and very poor care. The latest witness, who provided additional video footage of the vessel, testified in front of the prosecutor and mentioned that she had commented to the coast guard that it wasn’t a good place to spend the night. We knew that. They... well, they were celebrating that night. Anyway, we’ll see what comes out. The rest is all speculation.
@@alefer007 Not referring to you but always remember there is lots of people with experience commenting here...there is some news today from the captain
Incidentally there was a downdraft forecast for August 16th between north Sardinia and Corsica, it ended up being not as severe as Arome predicted, but if you remember there have been bad storms during this period in Formentera as well as the Derecho from last year which was severe. I have been through the Zorbas medicane and wind speeds of over 100knots were recorded (we sheltered safely). All of these events are seemingly unforcast, but I don't buy that. Low pressure systems as well as high CAPE values are what we look at all the time as sailors. At this time of the year, we tend to look at multiple weather models and at every update possible. When I am paranoid about waiting for the next update in some hours - I also look at the barometric pressure. Maybe it is because we are only 14 meters, perhaps I would be less nervy on a bog boat - well. not now!
As an ex-pilot, and a current yachtsman (although I only sail a 13m catamaran) I agree a microbursts can be a major issue for planes, it can be compared to a boat suddenly being hit by a very strong current that is far faster than the boat's ability to sail / motor. However I would be very concerned if a boat of this size could be pushed down or taken beyond the angle of vanishing stability by one. If so they were very unluck to have a incredibly large one exactly over them, but sufficiently far away from other boats that they were not hit by the horizontal part of a downdraught as well, I would have expected other smaller boats in the area to have been flattened by a downdraught event. We will need to see what the experts from the UK Marine Accident Investigation Branch find, but we should not blame anyone at this stage, it is also likely to be a series of small errors, across many areas, that accumulated into a major problem. Excellent reporting, very well done, and I appreciate the matter of fact way this is being handled.
The swiss cheese model will certainly apply. If it was a waterspout there would be witnesses whereas a microburst would not be so obvious. Whatever the phenomenon I'm sure the AIS of other boats in the vicinity may help narrow it down. Some might also have a record of the windspeeds and direction. I wonder what role the anchor played in this as well? Did one drag while another got hung up putting the boat in a very unsafe condition? When the boat did tip over what hatches were open?
Sailboats with substantial rigs at anchor face a phenomenon where they literally try to sail or tack themselves up wind even with no sails deployed ;and when the anchor stops the vessel the heeling moment can suddenly increase. It is a precarious position I have experienced my self in a small 6.5 meter high performance sailboat. It also causes a mass of water to push up the side deck of the craft all the way to the center / main hatches on deck , I was shocked when it happened to my small yacht but I was completely buttoned up all hatches in place and pinned locked down - i suspect they just could not believe and react fast enough to what was going on, I hope they do not destroy the captain anymore than he already is. I think this could have happened to many well qualified and experienced super yacht captains, could he have been more prepared yes but hindsight 20/20 "least not ye be judged" is what I am thinking now.
imagine being those divers, swimming along narrow, horizontal stairways and corridors, turning left and right instead of up and down, through a space barely large enough for your body with a tank on your back, seeing only what your headlight can illuminate, no peripheral vision, alone behind your mask and dependent on your regulator to breathe, opening cabin doors above and below you while looking for and finding bodies. Once you find them you have to go down into the cabin with them and push them up into the corridor. Maybe you push them up to your buddies. Then you all tow them alongside until you've exited the boat and then drag them to the surface. How would you ever be able to really share what that was like to someone who had never done it?
No doubt, 165 feet is not an easy dive, actually pretty dangerous. My brother used to dive a lot when he lived in West Palm beach. I asked him if he’d ever been that deep and the look on his face was his answer. He looked at me like I had a penis growing out of my forehead. With so many dives being made, how minutes of dive time, I’m really amazed there hasn’t been another fatality. Of course I hope I’m not speaking too soon cause I know they’re not done yet, there’s talk of them raising the ship!
I read the divers said it was very disorienting in the yacht because there were mirrors all over that shone their headlamps back at them. Can you even imagine? And the bodies were wedged between and behind furniture, and then there is the 90 degree resting angle. I think deep rescue divers are the bravest men on the planet.
Your channel is the most unbiased source of information and I appreciate your commitment to truth, not sensationalism! Whatever happened, I do not believe for a moment that the crew would voluntarily abandon the guests, I am sure that whatever happened was sudden, unexpected and terrifying! Time will tell what did not happen, ie struck by lightning, doors left open etc., but the crew will be emotionally overwhelmed for a while, understandably so, and getting a clear account of what happened may take a few days. It is a horrible tragedy!
I regret to say, I think it was crew negligence. They should all have been on watch. They all made sure they were on the lifeboat. They made sure they had flares and torches. The passengers were not weakened till boat tilted.
Your explanation of a microburst is spot on. Being an aviator we go through training to escape these in the simulator. Even the chances of actually escaping these are limited. On a boat on the water, there is no escape and all is up to mother nature. Usually microburst warnings at airports last about 15 minutes and we circle around until the warnings go away.
I have seen what a microburst does to a forest. Snapping/upending trees that are thick as a man. Extremely local phenomenon. There were profoundly unlucky if that was what happened.
I was a passenger in a light aircraft twin engined on a day return tourist flight from Las Vegas to the Grand Canyon. During the flight I became concerned at the very close distance we were travelling at times to high points in the topography. Being at the back I was also squashed in. They remarked later that I looked very worried, implicit in this was that I am female. I explained that my parents flew gliders and we were flying into an approaching storm (something I was not informed of prior to departure). In this situation I was mindful that the air pressure and general conditions could become dangerously unstable. They took note and we spent hours on the ground after that waiting for the storm to pass. It turned out these guys were ex Air Force guns, who specialised in aerobatics. I did not sign up to have my life put in danger and they were on notice. Hanging out at the airport for many hours was boring, but I am used to it. Safety first and glider pilots are very mindful of risk. We flew back in the dark and I the only passenger who was quite happy about that.
@@deborahcurtis1385 The ability to assess risk is sometimes degraded when people have a lot of flight time. Flying is amazing but you are always exposed to unknowns you can never fully take into account. Your knowledge kept everyone on the flight being reckless. Good for you.
But why was she alone. Why weren't passengers wakened. Were they locked in from bridge. They didn't know till the last minute but the watch woke captain at 2am allegedly. And captain says awake everyone. Noone woke passengers though. So by the time the young sailor went to wake captain it must have been already serious otherwise why do you need all crew. And they didn't wake passengers because they didn't want them to be alerted to hatches open. And they didn't rescue passengers as there was no room in life raft. Surely the passengers on port side would be easier to get out unless they couldn't get out. So why not prioritise the owner and his family the. His friends. Because the owner and his friends were highly intelligent and influential and would know they cocked up. Dead owners tell no tales. The fact Hannah was alone and didn't try to locate her father and vice versa means that the passengers were unaware till the boat started tilting. Mrs Lynch confirms this. She left after first tilt. A father and daughter would try to find each other unless they couldn't be ause they were locked in. How is it port side was locked but not starboard. Who locked port side.
If nothing else this loss of life will remind us all to train/re/train ourselves and our crews/family/friends on emergecy drills. Before I did my transpacific passage in my catamaran I debated the optimum location for the 8 man liferaft. This process made me re-imagine my boats whole interior layout. Imagine the catamaran now capsized. the bilge in each hull is now the ceiling, the ceiling is now the floor and underwater. instead of ascending the steps from each hull to the centre salon, you would now have swim DOWN the stairs to the now completely submerged salon to escape through the submerged sliding doors into the submerge cockpit. This is why I didnt mount the life raft on the roof of the salon, nor even on the deck, the higher the raft above the water line when upright, the deeper the raft when capsized. The best (or least bad) place I determined was as close to the water line upright, therefore at or only just below the waterline capsized. Also re-think your cabin ceiling hatches. Not just for light and ventilation. Upside down they are emergency exits, albeit submerged now and you'll need to dive down and out, but still an option, maybe your only option if your cabin door is blocked. There was on my Catamaran like most bluewater boats an escape hatch in each hull which, when capsized would become a hatch out onto the upturned hull. Many owners are removing these hatches which although sometimes leak are vital to retain. Only once you reimagine your boat interior for a worst case survival situation can you improve you and your crews chances to actually survive.
Living in Italy I have been following coverage of this on Italian TV. It is interesting and helpful to hear what the Italian coast guard etc. are reporting and then watching your reporting. What a terrible situation anyway you look at it and I thought from the first day that the boat will need to be raised and thoroughly examined to try to understand what really happened. I have learned quite a bit from you about what if any kind of “black box” recording does actually exist. What a learning moment that any boats of a certain length should be required to have such a recording device on board!!! It will take perhaps months before any definitive conclusion might be reached. For now my prayers go out to the family of those who lost their lives aboard ship. Thank you for reporting what information you have please do not stop.
Any engines or generators that were running would have automatically shut down via tilt switches when the boat reaches a high degree of heel so as to protect the engines from water getting into the air intakes or damaging themselves via hydraulicing sump oil and in the event should they break free from their mounts Crew exit the boat by a separate access and do not come through the guest area. The crew except for the chef would have been heading out to the deck to deal with the dragging anchor and would have had lifejackets on. In a storm like this you would not be able to see or communicate over distances more the 3 feet. Some of the crew were possibly blown into the water and it is remarkable that they managed to get any of the passengers to safety. A knock down with a 70 metres mast only requires the top 25 metres of the mast to fill with water before the boat is unrecoverable unless it had a 10 metres counter weight keel weighing 45 tons; the keel was not sufficient to do this either in the up or down positions , The mast did not have any inbuilt positive flotation material or buoyancy to stop or counter water ingress . The aft saloon doors must have been opened to get passengers out and this combined with the knockdown would have caused the down flooding. It would have taken for a very brave action to stop passengers from getting out of the boat by sealing all doors in the hope that boat might recover. Brave crew faced with an impossiible set of choices whilst risking their own lives
Sailor for forty years here. A friend and I were out on my sailboat one beautiful day. Perfect sailing weather, good breeze, maybe a few clouds in the sky, but nothing threatening. Sailing along nicely under main and jib, then WHAM, got hit with two microbursts lasting only a couple seconds each and just a few seconds apart. First one put the mast in the water very quickly to port, she stood right back up about as quick as she was knocked down, and then the second one hit knocking us over to starboard. My friend went flying across the deck right into the lifelines. Again she stood right back up. Not a drop of water, no damage, and no one injured, although, I imagine my friend may have been a bit sore where he hit the lifeline. Rest of the day was perfect!
Identical event happened to me. Beautiful sunny day, 8kts of breeze just sailing on port along in an open 6mJI. Out of nowhere we were slammed down on port and being an open cockpit the boat righted itself but filled up half the cockpit and the next second we were slammed down on starboard and again took on a lot of water. Sailboats around us saw nothing ! We were barely afloat on a calm sea (hot day) and had to make it back sailing a sluggish boat filled with water and pumping more than we ever had. When we got ashore, the harbourmaster ran down to shout at us that "This is a private dock" .... I was VERY explicit with him and said that we would move as soon as we had sorted the half sunken yacht out. He left 🙂 The most surprising thing though is that nobody else saw it happen. It was over within a minute. Port/Starboard and we just looked at each other knowing that a third pushover and we'd sink like the 2.5 tonnes of lead that were in the keel. Straight down there and then. Luckily there was not third strike.
Sometimes Mother Nature takes a moment to remind us to mind her power *without* immediately actually-drowning us....but then she drowns us later that week if we didn't listen well enough, of course! :)
This sort of thing has been reported over the years on Lake Ontario. The nasty thing about a downburst is that it gets more power over sailboat the more it heels, opposite to what happens in a horizontal wind. Hence the "slamming down" aspect of the knockdown.
@@geordieschall2092I just read in another comment that the keel was half retracted. I wonder what stability is like on this boat with a half retracted keel. I can see water getting into the open dinghy garage. Even though there is apparently a water tight door from the garage, it could’ve been poorly secured. Of course, once the boat was on its side, water could’ve poured in a ton of places. With that keel half up, there may not have been enough righting motion to overcome the water that had already started pouring through the doors/ hatches. Apparently, the big garage doors won’t open unless the water tight door leading into the boat is closed, however it’s super common to see this mechanism bypassed. While that could’ve been a contributing factor, this seems to have happened really fast, faster than one of those water tight doors in the garage if left open would seem capable of causing. That keel deal screams red flag to me. Surely a lot emphasis would have been put on lowering it as far as possible in the event of adverse weather. Would love to know what the manufacturer had to say about various keel positions & how far the yacht could heel before compromising stability.
One of those microbursts took out a very large healthy oak tree twisting it off above the ground where it was over four feet across This was a very healthy tree later harvested for lumber and leaving all the neighboring trees that it interleved with and our house some 40 feet away completely untouched! Not even a significant branch was broken. It slamed to the ground some two feet away from our shed which was about 4 feet from the tree's original position.
Some years ago, here in Montreal, a storm system rolled through. Where I live, we were on the calmer side of the storm. (3.1 km) from here to the West, was a park surrounded by homes and trees that were centuries old. A Microburst dropped on the park. All of the trees were snapped like twigs and destroyed. And all the houses surrounding the park, sustained damage the cars parked around the periphery were also destroyed. So a microburst, if that's what took place, has very destructive power. I could see why the boat sank so quickly, even if there were/weren't open doors, the boat probably did not stand a chance, against a flash storm that overwhelmed them.
@@lisamessina4530 Wrong place, Wrong Time. I'm not a meteorologist, but I've seen weather do very interesting things from my vantage point, where I live. I know that no other boats in the vicinity were affected, we should wait for the report on the vessel itself and it's state of operation at the time of the incident. I was just offering my experience with the phenomena of a microburst. I wasn't even attempting to make a definitive description of events.
@@lisamessina4530 Have you heard of waterspouts? Which is essentially a tornado in the water. Witnesses (fishermen) say they saw it get side tracked by the walls surrounding the harbour and head straight for the Bayesian.
In the mid-1970s, my wife and I were at anchor in our 32' cruising sailboat and experienced an early-morning thunderstorm which part way through delivered a micro burst of 105 MPH (reported by a shore station). The boat was laid flat for about five seconds then quickly recovered upright. However, whenever whenever anchored we always were in a position to get underway in less than one minute if we had to. We did carry a self-activating life raft in a canister but (fortunately) it didn't activate. Two things: Situations like this are always surprising and nearly always disorienting. And we survived that incident because we made sure everything was dogged shut moments before the storm hit. Condolences to the families of the deceased.
This is the best yachting info on the internet... If I'm wrong, please give me a better one. I'm a land lubber but, enjoy casual sailing and kayaking. Thanks for the great video.
@@JoeLinux2000 Yes an open lazarette with other watertight doors not closed perhaps. The tender as is said in the video could explain that. I assume it can be garaged.
I'm in a sailing club, a very serious club, Lake Grapevine Texas; our former Commodore on a check ride with a commercial airline pilot trainee, experienced what was probably a down burst in June 24, and they were lucky to get the boat home. He is very experienced but has seen nothing like this in his 40 plus years of sailing. He is still shook and emotional about it. It was a small boat to be sure, but the weather phenomenon was seemingly quite similar to what happened here. They were knocked down and stayed down and could not right the boat. It happened so quickly that they could not point the boat in advance. Mother Nature takes no prisoners, despite what Italian courts may think.
With your permission, imprudent & weird comment. Your court yet declared the cpt or the crew not guilty of anything, but investigations of both Italian and British authorities are still in progress...🤔 You know sometimes Mother Nature is the most comfortable reason to appeal for when it comes to some kinda tragedies ...
Thanks for making this awful event clearer. Brave, strong girl Hannah - sleep tight, back with Daddy now ❤. Condolences to all the families/loved one's affected. Much respect to the Italian Diver's for their honourable & selfless recovery.. Just tragic.
This is a public platform, you can’t “shut up” comments here. What a rude arrogant reply to the one empathic and respectful comment for the victims and divers. How can you be sure this person didn’t know them? We don’t need to know victims and families personally to feel for them and send condolences. Even a bot and AI would’ve replied more humanely than you. Are you a bot-troll?
I've participated in airline crash investigations and they usually involve a series of issues, with any single issue being manageable while combinations overwhelm the crew. It seems possible the waterside steps down access to fore and aft sunken cabin areas (no pun) and doors would have been in use while securing Bayesian.... as well as some combination of crew access to the foredeck, lazaret and stern door. Assuming wind heeled Bayesian over the sunken cabin would have pooled water and stairwells, and any additional combination would have taken Bayesian down.
My guess (and it is just a guess) would be that the main lounge was either open, or opened on it's own due the severe list (with both passengers and crew on deck, it wouldn't've been solidly bolted shut), letting water to the passenger area. This, combined with a list greater than the vessel could right itself from, may have been enough to sink her. The engine room, and probably lazaret, would've required ventilation for the machinery within, and thus probably had openings above the water line. So, while normally water tight, they may not have been water tight with the boat lying on it's side in the water (i.e. 90 degree list). I see no reason to assume that the stern and/or lazaret doors were open, rather I see a complete lack of evidence one way or the other on the state of those doors (it's possible that the divers and investigators know more but haven't (yet) shared that knowledge).
I am wondering if the huge single mast had more effect than has been acknowledged so far. When you said her sister ships had 2 masts an alarm bell started ringing in my head. Most long distance/professional non racer types prefer more than one mast if possible for a host of reasons - the main one being the reduction in weight aloft and consequent increase in righting arm. I sail a large ketch (2 masts) while more modern sister ships are sloops (1 mast) and I know which I prefer however the reasons why seem lost on the sloop owners - mast size has a fascination for some. The lever arm on a mast this size would be be huge. After knockdown, even one tonne of water in the top of the 75m hollow mast and the folds of the roller sails would produce a 75 ton/m lever arm - a couple of tons more flowing in and you've got 225ton/m lever arm holding her down, if the keel's up the righting moment begins to deteriorate rapidly giving much more time for water to flow in through any openings. Remember that automatic pumps go to the bilge, not the hull side so she would need to right in order for pumps to work. This is why, in a sailing vessel it's not the initial knockdown that's the issue - it's how fast the vessel gets back up again that matters -- the righting arm is the key - hence the terror around shifting ballast/cargo and moveable items - or even small openings in the weather deck. Anything that reduces the recovery time exponentially increases the risk of catastrophe - and a huge single mast instead of a couple of shorter ones fits that bill. If her righting arm had been larger, she'd have righted even with a door open and the crew could have taken action and the pumps would have kicked in giving everyone a fighting chance. I suspect the wind didn't have to hold her mast down that long before the righting arm went to zero even if she hadn't actually started to sink at that point. Having been in knockdowns I know it is extremely difficult for the crew to do anything but hang on and wait. Old square riggers were designed to blow sails before this point - which is what doomed the Marques after her re-rig - nothing broke and she went under in a midnight line squall. The description of 20 deg heel then a rapid increase to 90 doesn't sound like downflooding to me - it sounds more like an initial strong gale strength gust followed by the microburst/tornado squall. I suspect she then started to downflood and settled into the water at 90deg because of the air trapped in the upper side of the hull.
The ballast and keel are there to keep the boat upright under sail. The stability calculations will prove the yachts stability even with the keel raised. The mast and rigging wind loading will be a fraction of the loading under sail. If the gale was force 6 to 7 this was nothing. If there was a downburst and it hit only one side of the yacht this may have been enough to force it over to 90 degrees.
I've just gotta say thanks for the brilliant coverage. I learned a few years back when we lost a friend in a maritime tragedy that there's a big difference between the truth and what's reported in the media. I honestly can't believe some of the garbage out there regarding this accident .Really appreciate the work you're putting in to update the situation for us. Cheers.
The tender missing doesn't necessarily mean having that storage area open let water into the boat. Or nessesarily mean it was in the water tethered to the stern. The storage area would be a sealed compartment on the fore deck. On some yachts this area can be filled with water and used as a small swimming pool. Also, the bouancy of an inflatable tender is such that it COULD force the hatch open and the tender float to the surface and blow out to sea un noticed.
yeah tender painter cld hve parted knot unwound, it was blown n ver infaltables, esp if took on wtr it b heavy n put loat of stain on v lines whn getn pushed rnd by v waves, yacht draged anchor some way so vers a lot of force going on at v time.
Also to note is that all guest cabins are served by one single circular/spiral staircase. Approaching that staircase from below, the stairs rise to starboard. With the vessel heeling to starboard, the angle of the steps effectively decreases. However, as you walk up the stairs, the spiral then turns , and becomes rising steeply to port (or vice versa if I am reading the GA wrongly). The angle of the upper treads would now be no longer horizontal, and the stairwell would be canted to being over the escapees heads. The angle of the treads would be the (steep) angle of heel. So once half way up and moving around the spiral, the stairs are over your head and climbing is no longer possible. This is exacerbated on Bayesian as the spiral staircase (and crew service door) are both to starboard of the yacht's centre line, and therefore earlier immersed, and with the likelihood of a rapid waterfall from the main deck to fight against. Interior general arrangements focus on ergonomics when upright, not on the knocked-down/heeled scenario. A Class-lead forum should consider the extent to which the GA should be approved for such eventualities. Staircases are becoming ever wider and grander, and are mainly assessed for their 'chimney' risk during fire. It is doubtful that the panicked, struggling now-sadly-deceased guests accumulated by accident or coincidence in the port side guest cabin, where they were found by divers. If the interior design had offered a fore-and-aft stair from accommodation deck to main deck, then it would have been climbable at even extreme angles of heel. Emergency escape routes are aesthetically unattractive in guest areas and, again, are considered more for an upright vertical escape from fire, not a heeled escape from flooding. Low-level lighting would be underwater on the immersed side and, if still visible, would be leading the escapees to deeper water.
The 6 were in port side cabins with doors sealed. I take your point about spiral staircase but it is only 7 steps and if flooded the air in the lungs would make you buoyant to move up and through. You don't need steps. You'd pull yourself up and through if you can see the steps. If you can't see them that would be challenging. But it is easier to get out of a flooded boat then not. They were 50 metres down. The oxygen would have been compressed at depth. They would suffer extreme pressure but as you rise the oxygen in your lungs expands. If they could have felt their way out from memory and understanding they were now on the side they might have made it.
Being in a large sinking upturned yacht at night would be similar to the helicopter escape drills we did annually in the military, this includes total confusion, loss of senses and without constant practice, almost impossible to escape from...
I grew up on a 41’ sailboat while travelling around the Bahamas and stopping in St. Maarten. We knew that water spouts can be very dangerous and if you saw one (while sailing) you tried to get out of it’s way as quickly as you could. We met sailors who had gotten hit/almost hit by water spouts and either the boat got terribly damaged or it sunk. Water spouts are just tornados on the sea. This is a very horrific and sad incident as are all weather related tragedies.
Thank you for the update. We had just moved to Katy, Texas, and experienced a strong thunderstorm. Suddenly, all hell broke lose and soda bottles stored in the pantry burst, as well as our backyard looked like a junk yard. I was told it was a 'down burst' by the officials we called. Personally, I experienced ear pressure and landed on my butt. Crazy experience.
Now wondering if the air pressure in the boat was like that of soda bottles in a microburst, causing closed doors and windows to pop and that could have let the water in. Another sailor earlier on this thread, mentioned a similar thing happened to his boat.
Microbursts produce downdrafts of around 6,000fpm. It is deadly to aircraft and is something all airline crew train to avoid and perform an escape maneuver. Sometimes in the simulator you cannot recover from it as it is too intense.
Photographs of the Bayesian indicate skiffs stored out in the open on the foredeck with other toys stored in the stern lazarette. Photos as well as comments by experts on your channel indicate the main guest entertainment deck is recessed about a meter below the boats main deck, much like a giant center cockpit. This design substantially reduces the buoyancy and righting moment during a capsize. It also explains the relatively low (and alarming) maximum allowable heel angles published by the manufacturer with centerboard up. With various hatches and open stairs might be the root cause of sinking during this severe knockdown by winds acting the unusually tall mast.
aparently she is stable wit v stern compartment flooded, n takes 2 or mre compartments 2 flood 2 lose bouyancy n sink, so hw did v other cpompartment flood?. also i imganie v port side topside hatch would hve been abve waterline most of v incident as she was heeling 2 stbd. vers no stbd hatch in hull on vis yacht. im kida tinking v waterspout may hve dumped water onto yacht?, yeah that mast kinda looks ovrsize, my imediate thought was needs 2 b a ketch rig. vers vid of a sy getn knowkdown in auckland harbour in a marina under bare poles, she righted quicky. difernt keel-fixed. on bay swing keel was partially lowerd aparently, i used 2 do v same ting on my yahct 4 addedd stabilty whn i was anchoring o/n. keen 2 read v investigatrs report.
It makes comp!ete sense to me that the surface area and height of the mast would have provided enough leverage momement for the boat to keel over with that sudden strong wind and also that the keel was raised made that easier to happen
The video shows: the lights go out at a 30-degrees gentle, slow, tilt of the mast to the right; due to the engine compartment having flooded in the stern. Therefore, the boat did not flood and sink from keeling-over sideways. The boat flooded from a hatch or multiple hatches left open; and a water-tight door or doors left open; allowing the water to flood multiple compartments.__ __Seems the divers would have seen open hatches and open water-tight-doors on the first dive. Loss of power and sinking may have closed the hatch, but not dogged it with pins.__ __Seems a fixed keel runs the length of the boat with a center-board that can be raised. Seems the fixed keel is weight enough to counter-balance the mast, and the center-board is to keep the ship straight when sailing and added stability against waves.__ __In the video; it looks like a regular storm; not a hurricane; not a water-spout, no big waves. The adjacent boat was able to immediately launch a tender and easily retrieve the flimsy raft containing 12-people.
@@PetarPopara Water ingress once it keeled over through open doors / windows ie there is that whole lounging area below the mast at deck level with plenty of doors. Rapidly filled up and sank.
Water spouts are very localized. I've been on a boat that was smashed down first on starboard then straight over to port. This is when it passes directly over you. A boat that is 50m away may just get a 50-70kts blow.
@nancycole-auguste6614 I'm not a pilot, ex- or otherwise. Nor, am I a physicist or engineer. But, when I first got a look at that gigantic mast, I almost fell off my chair. Maybe I'm just an ignorant rube, but that boat looked dangerously top-heavy to me.
On the 6 passengers in a room: you've mentioned ship was listing to starboard. Any indication whether boat had a pitch? if the only exit from the guest staterooms involved going down in water before reaching stairs, there might have been instinct of going up the dead end corridor to stay our of water. (not knowing about any emergency exit hatch/ladder). One would need to have the location of that room as well as ship's drawings to have any idea of why the passengers ended up there. (and also position of ship once resting at bottom whether that was the natural "up" for any floating objects. ) One other possibility is that they were in corridor filling up but when door to that stateroom broke, allowing water to fill that stateroom they were all sucked in there. If the crew were on deck, the "manslaughter" aspect bight hinge on whether it was even possible to re-enter the boat at the time the event transformed from pesky storm that requires crew to awaken and stow fancy pillows to an event where boat is at risk of sinking. testimony more surving passengers will be key in this. This could still be that the crew performed heroically to save as many passengers as they could.
During this morning's press conference a lady journalist has asked why toxicological and alcoholic tests had not been performed on crew members. The district attorney and his assistant stated that it was not a priority since the crew needed to be taken care of, having been hospitalized in a state of choc and with various injuries
The crew should have been given an immediate blood test to check for alcohol and drugs when they were admitted to hospital. It would not have delayed any treatment that was needed. I would have thought that this would have been done as a priority, just as much to eliminate drugs or alcohol as a contributing factor, but also to clear the crew if drugs or alcohol were not present. I hope this is not an indication of future sloppy work by the authorities.
I had the misfortune to be hit by a microburst while sailing. It is terrifying! The wind comes vertically downwards and simply flattens the boat against the water. It is very sudden and thankfully very quick. Our 7 ton heavy traditional sailing cruiser was flattened, as a crew we were luckily thrown into the cockpit. Everything that could move was 'stripped' off the decks, and by the time we righted the cabin so so full off water up to the point we thought the boat would actually sink under us. Fortunately it didn't but everything in the cabins was floating around, as most cupboards hads emptied themselves. Total chaos. What worries me about this accident is the loss of the passenger versus crew survival!
Very informative. . No 'jumping to conclusions'. . Just reporting on what information and official reteases are available with sensible discussion of possibilities, without claiming any answers. . Well done. Keep it up, I appreciate it.
The power of a microburst is almost unbelievable. In Montreal 7 years ago there was one that damaged 400 trees. In one particular park that covers a city block, healthy mature maple trees had their trunks snapped like matchsticks. I think the park had to remove 75% of the trees due to damage. A down burst makes sense to me as a way the ship could sink after ending up on its side. A constant wind pressure might have pinned the mast to the water long enough for water to flood enough of the ship that it could no longer right itself.
The town where I grew up suffered a significant microburst about 20 years ago. It knocked down over 1,000 trees, which were very old large trees. One barely missed my parents' house. The town had tree removal services all over the village for weeks afterward cutting up downed trees. The power of the microburst was unreal.
It was reported that with keel raised, the ship could withstand 73% of heeling, and with keel down, 88%. If knocked flat into the water, that ship would not be coming back up even if all doors were closed it seems. It would seem that if crew were working to stow deck items and already heeling 20%, that the keel should have been lowered.
@@HurricaneBruiserWith Keel up it could right at 90 degrees with keel down 120 degrees or go completely 360 degrees..the figures you quote are very inaccurate.
I worked for a highly regarded Norwegian registered cruise line for a couple of years. I can't look away from this disaster. The first thing you do when you get on an ocean liner is a safety drill! I just read about the sinking of the USS Indianapolis too. People have to be aware and prepared. It'sjust tragic.
Some people believe they can afford to be careless because they paid other people to look out for them. But obviously it doesn't work like this. Before death everyone is equal; one can argue one's way out of a US Court, but not out of the implacable debt collector.
Safety drill on a large cruise ship is completely different from a 56M sail ship. On a large cruiser it would be easy to get disoriented, simply because of the sheer scale, sheer distances to cover and the amount of decks, however on the Bayesian Perini yacht if you are a guest, drill is important but unlike a cruise ship your distance to get to the main deck is only about 20 meters, as you are only one deck down. Once on deck you are close to the waterline unlike a cruise ship. The worst scenario, you get yourself in the water if the yacht is going down. I think unfortunately the yacht capsized in relatively calm waters compared to that of Atlantic storms, and due to unforeseen and freak squall circumstances along with the energy of the waterspout. My understanding that an actual severe storm at the port had not been issued by the Italian Meteorological office, correct me if I’m wrong and they had only forecast thunder and lightning with some torrential rain. For sure with this forecast there would obviously be some driving wind to contend with. The Baden Powell which was anchored only 150 meters away was apparently sparred the weather barrage and the waterspout. If the Meteorological office predicted a severe storm at port, I would then have expected the crew to have operated differently, I don’t think they foresaw the climatic conditions that caused the yacht to capsize. Of course I also know that the local fishermen had remained at port as they were aware being out at sea there were elements of danger that they wished to avoid, but the Bayesian was anchored close to shore. I am not trying to make any assumptions and I refuse to point fingers, but it is a tragedy, and yes maybe a garage door was open at the time when destiny hit. Maybe the design engineering was close to the limits, maybe the centre board should have been dropped at maximum, but we are a species of explorers always at limit. Without this, call it character or DNA, we would never have stepped on the moon. It’s a tragedy and it’s sad, but it is what it is, the Bayesian propelled the yachting industry into the future when it was built, a remarkable feat of engineering, but just like us mortal humans, it is just part of evolution. Don’t condemn Bayesian, the Owners vanity or the crew, because without them we will still be grounded in the past. Pay tribute to all who have lost and sacrificed their lives to the taming of the seas.
Surprisingly no question at the press conference was asked about recovery of the CCTV footage computer as there are cameras all over the place that would have shown movements of passengers / crew in many areas at least until power got cut off.
A vessel designed as a floating condominium..huge access doors and a presumption that a sailing vessel this size won't heel to a degree that water can ingress through open doors or hatches. Sad as it is as a boatbuilder , I see this on many modern yachts these days.
Not a conspiracy theorist and mindful of things lost in translation but I found the use of the verb ‘hide’ a little odd. If I’m moving to the available air pockets in the yacht I’m moving to survive, not hide. I get the bodies were hidden amongst mattresses which makes total sense, maybe that’s it. Thanks for your informative videos.
Having listened to the press conference today it was stated that there was one member of the crew on deck keeping watch. The crew sleeping quarters would would be in the aft of the yacht with only a few feet to the exit hatch. The guest cabins would be forward of the saloon going up to the bow of the yacht making it far more difficult for the guests to exit the sinking yacht. Apparently bad weather conditions had been forecast and as a result non of the local fishing fleet was out. Also at the press conference today it was stated that yacht had been anchored in 30 meters of water though it came to rest in 50 meters of water, perhaps indicating a strong off shore wind. As I mentioned on your post yesterday the last thing you want to do in a severe storm is be at anchor as at best it will drag or more likely the bucking of the bow will snap the chain leaving the yacht liable to going side on to the prevailing wind with reduced ballast by virtue of the keel being raised. The further you get away from the shore and the deeper the water the waves become a swell and and a blue water yacht like this should have no issues at all. The sea never shows mercy and the dangers may be more apparent in the North Sea or the Bay of Biscay but weather can turn in the Med as well.
Crew were on deck securing cushions etc. It's why they survived. They were thrown into the sea when it rolled. If the anchor and chain are sufficient and structure properly designed, it shouldn't have an issue at anchor. The guests (and owner) absolutely wouldn't want to be tossed about on a rough sea. Remember, as with the Kobe helicopter crash, the wealthy gives the orders and any peons who don't obey will be replaced with ones who will. "Sir, we should put out to sea and ride out the storm in open water." "No, the guests might become seasick. I won't have it!" The thought of just going ashore to a nice hotel would've been dismissed because the very wealthy are also very cheap. Why spend money on nice, safe 5 diamond hotel rooms when they already spent the money on this unsinkable boat and it's perfectly safe in the harbor (according to the estimation of the completely unknowledgeable owner).
@@Texas240 Agreed that the moneyed people tend to overestimate the power of money, and therefore consider staying aboard safe enough in any circumstances. When you pay that kind of dough for a boat you probably imagine it unsinkable. That's not gonna change; the glitter of gold blinds people.
I worked as a chief stew for over a decade and I have to say a PA system would be very useful. I always worked on MCA yachts so drills etc were done regularly, guests or no guests. The majority of guests wanted to see us do it as they felt safer. Just found this channel and I love it. I do miss my yachtie days.
I experienced something very similar in Palm Springs, we were doing a craft festival and out of nowhere this most intense wind and rain hit the park. I have never experienced anything so wild, we were hanging on to anything heavy to not get knocked down. Many vendors lost all their craft-ware, glass, pottery, paintings etc.
It’s disingenuous to say that the storm wasn’t forecasted, when the CAPE index clearly showed air instability of over 4000 J/kg. The wind forecast may have been 5kn but the CAPE was off the charts. For a professional captain, in charge of a vessel of that size, in the Med, in August, when this kind of weather event is common and not take that into account to make appropriate safety measures, is bizarre.
Downbursts have downed pretty large areas of forest. This may demonstrate their potential lateral wind force better than downed passenger jets. The forest is downed like it was downed by an explosion. Trees fall outwards from one point, except in the middle, where they can fall to all directions, as the down draft does not happen in one point, but a larger area. Outwards of the down draft the wind turns to all directions at it hits the ground.
Thank you for all the updates regarding this tragedy, I have been following your channel for several years now. You always give very clear explanations. You look tired, please get some rest, or down time in one of your cars.
Thank you for your rational explanation through the eyes of someone who has worked on a yacht. Wild media speculation does not help the situation. Having been on land in a microburst, I can tell you it was horrifying and it only lasted a few seconds. My whole neighborhood was nothing but down trees and tremendous house damage, just like a tornado.
I have been watching all of your reports regarding the Bayesian. Thank you so very much. You have given some very informative information about this tragedy.
I was hit twice by some kind of "wind event" while boating in Puerto Rico. One time we were anchored (bow and stern) while on a Bertram 45'. It was a beautiful day with clear blue skies and perfectly calm, crystal clear emerald waters when, all of a sudden, the water started churning and the anchor ropes went tight as a concert violin strings. We started the engines and released the anchor ropes into the water to get the boat away from nearby shallow reefs. After a few minutes everything when calm again and we returned to retrieve the anchors. When they say these events happen in seconds, they are not exaggerating. Scary stuff.
Life isn't safe. It only ends in one way. When you live, you have to learn to defend yourself from daily hazards. People new to a lifestyle, like yachting, have a steep learning curve. Knowing how to swim of course is number one. All guests should be educated on survival and equipment. This event happened really fast. The safety of the vessel needed to be traded for a life raft at a time it would've been difficult to convince unfamiliar, scared people to do so. Hiding in a cabin would be very enticing in comparison.
Reality gets particularly harsh in the high mountains and at sea. Those who dislike such inconveniences should simply stay put. Instead, they want both the adventure and safety, which is doable only in movies.
It happened at 5am in the morning, they were sleeping in their beds, in the cabins, not hiding as you put it. The crew are at fault, for not raising the alarm ahead of the storm, in order to get everyone on deck.
A thought (to be added to the current zillions).. Paraphrasing a widely held notion: "the most simple answer is most likely correct", applied here: 1. Her computed (by me) displacement to waterline value (using Statute's specs) is ~150- placing her at the expected "performance cruiser" category. 2. Her stated angle of positive stability is between ~77 and 88 degrees- in other words she would be expected to capsize at greater angles of heel- by design. 3. The "performance" design, which is not unusual nor radical, by today's standards, for a sailing yacht, results (obviously) in a high metacentric height, compared to heavier (slower) designs. The result is the likelihood that, as she heels, the lighter design will raise her windward side to increasing heights, above sea water, rather than submerging the leeward rail, further exposing the hull to weather-related heel- as reflected by her stability-angle spec. 4. The mast, exposed to winds likely outside of the overall design parameters, contributed to the heel in a first- order way, due both to its height and the massive drag, with an enormous effective lever arm, due to loads imparted high aloft. 5. She heeled to angles exceeding the 77 (keel up) stability limit. (Note: It may be unfair to judge this value- which would be considered too low for far smaller yacht's; it is widely accepted that a yacht's stability is related to her size as well- in other words exceeding a relatively low angle of positive stability requires greater environmental influence with increasing yacht "size"). 6. She down flooded- obviously, or she would be at the surface- capsized. 7. She encountered an overwhelming weather event- likely both highly localized and beyond comprehension. --PM
The lady and one year old slept up too. There was no waterspout. But the lights went out without any automatic alarm or manual alarm. Give me a break. Someone helped this boat to sink somehow. I think they used the pumps and turned off the alarms.
@@traciannveno Is it just me that read Mr Lynch`s business partner was also killed a day or so before this boat tragedy, when both were cleared In America of the fraud charges against them? I just don't know what to think about it all. A coincidence maybe but rather strange though.
I have been in down burst on the road. It actually quite spectacular. It is like you are being hosed from above from pipe with unlimited diameter. Water do not just fall under force of gravity it is falling with additional acceleration of wind blowing downward. There are no waves like in regular havy rain. It is one hevy waive, non stop until it gets all water down. It falls down straight with force of hurricane. The only good thing it does not lasts long. Visibility 0 because it is straight wall of water. Wiper blades do nothing on maximum settings. I assume it is very rear, localized and hard to predict.
This was a huge yacht and capable of handling pretty much any weather if fully prepared. The vessel was at anchor close to shore and therefore at a low level of preparedness. Obviously there would be a watch to ensure the anchor didn’t drag and an engineer to keep an eye on the equipment keeping the lights on and the air conditioning running. When things started to go wrong, the crew’s duty would be to firstly ensure the VIP passengers were reassured and the vessel remained safe. When the yacht heeled over 90º, that was probably the first time that the guests had any idea that things were going wrong. Certainly the fact that all the casualties appear to have been in the guest accommodation lends credence to this sequence of events. Waterspouts dump extreme amounts of water and would certainly be capable of flooding the vessel if the rear doors were open as they may well have been if the crew were hurriedly moving chairs, cushions and tables from the deck areas into shelter. Once the vessel was laid over, water would also enter through the same opening and cause it to sink. The speed at which events unfolded seems to have caught everyone off guard and in reality I doubt that any fault or blame can be directed at any of the crew for what happened. Yes, with the benefit of hindsight, there were probably many things that could have been handled differently, but with luxury VIP cruises, everything is done to avoid inconveniencing the passengers and that is probably the most likely cause for the chain of events that occurred.
Hi But there is a report the boat was dragging its anchor for a number of minutes. My understanding the normal practice is start engines and head into the wind. I am sure there is more to come.
The sea is not for people who dislike being inconvenienced. There's only one law for everyone at sea: act prudently before you entirely lose the capacity to act. Natural elements disregard social privilege.
crew is to blame here, whether it's criminal or not remains to be seen. thunderstorms are violent and unpredictable. it was already bad weather and it was known storm is coming, why crew didn't prepare the yacht and make sure doors are closed and monitor the situation. other close by boats weren't harmed and they were better positioned, this crew started to put cushions away already when it was bad... sure boat design had it's part to play with big mast but if keel was up then it's crew's fault, don't care if it makes noise or not...
In 1988 on Baltic Sea I experienced two of them in the same time. It was very early morning, sea was flat completly, no air movement at all. Suddenly a little fresh breeze appeared like on your little pool and wind started to rise rapidly. We took sails down, locked ster wheel and hide inside the yacht. The two tornadoes were built-up up just in 10 minutes. I was young sailor for me it was hypnotising...two columns from boiling sea surface up to bottom of clouds in sky. I haven't seen something like that anymore.
It's like the kobe helicopter crash. The wealthy person tells the minions what they want and will replace them if they don't obey. Wealth, apparently, equals experience, training, and skill (at least in the minds of the wealthy).
8:55 a downburst knocked our big healthy tree down. We saw it fall. No other trees fell in our city. That was years ago but we never forgot it. It was so powerful and downward blowing. Weird
In BC Canada remote forest a microburst knocked a section of large conifers flat like matchsticks laying in one direction, a few hundred feet wide by a few hundreds yards long, with no damage whatsoever beyond that area. Definitely weird.
I still believe that the problem here was that the boat was lying at anchor with the lift keel up, The huge mast, fitted with roll reef sails was big and heavy, and there were communication domes fitted to the mast as well, adding to the weight (and unstability of the vessel) and the wind sensitivity of the mast structures. The crew was on deck, clearing away items to be stowed inside and preparing for the storm, therefore the doors and hatches were open. A sudden gust pushed the unstable ship on its side and it flooded. An open lazarette or tender "garage" would obviously have added to the disaster. I personally don't think the crew was negligent. They were surprised by the suddenness and severity of the storm, especially the "mini-tornado". The idea that the passangers should have been up, wearing their life vests and gathered at some kind of life boat station is ludicrous. The crews on these super yachts are always navigating between boat safety and running issues, and the comfort and desires of the owners and their guests. It makes operating these ships particularly demanding and difficult at times.
The Tender is often towed in Port Areas. A Yacht/Motor Yacht uses a tender to transfer to and from a Port Areas etc etc. A buoyant Tender (Air Filled/pressured) would break its attachment line quite easily. A buoyant tender would be found quite easily too, unless it was dragged out to sea. A slim fit athletic person has a significantly greater chance of getting from A to B in a difficult situation. A trained Life Saver Scuba Snorkeler person would have a significant survivability advantage in a water event. The Crew Member actually said "we were thrown from the Yacht by an extreme event". That "WE" is very significant.
So a ketch (2 masts) was redesigned into a sloop with a single, presumably much taller, mast. That could be why the critical angle less than 90 degrees, even with the keel fully extended. I think the only sailing vessels out there with taller masts are Nigoni V and Mirabella V, and there can only be a handful with masts anywhere close to 70m tall, so combine the rarity of similar vessels, with the rarity of extreme wind events, and that storm put Bayesian in poorly charted territory. I think there are many lessons here for yacht designers, shipbuilders, and classification societies to learn.
100% agree. And it did seem the manufacturer was very VERY quickly jumping onto crew error. it may be partially correct if certain hatches/doors weren't secured, but the keel and mast seem to be pushing the limits to start with. both combined are likely the contributing factors rather than a single root cause.
They are the ones who have an accurate measure of the sea's power, and therefore the ones spared by the same. As though there were something akin to mutual recognition--the way it should be.
A friend of mine lost a 60' shrimp trawler and 4 crew when they were hit by a waterspout at night while underway. He described it like this..." we were out in a storm when we suddenly heard the waterspout, then the boat fell about 30' into a hole of water mixed with so much air it wouldn't support the boat. Just as quickly it passed & the sea closed in on the boat from above. He & the mate were in the bridge & swam out to the surface where they caught the life raft. The crew was sleeping below decks and was lost. on the boat
Wow! Quite a powerful description. Thanks for sharing.
I'm so sorry. This was a very moving life experience. 🙁
@@ac1646 RIP to those who were lost
Condolences for your loss and to their families
"then the boat fell about 30' into a hole of water mixed with so much air it wouldn't support the boat." that's a point I had not considered - the waterspout churning the water out from under the boat. It's not designed for those stresses.
Having been a sailor for over 65 years, including 30 years in the navy, and I have found your reports very accurate and informative. I appreciate your prefacing your comments with either fact or supposition; although in most case I agree with your conclusions. Well done.
Non-sailors ask crazy questions. Black box, life jackets, etc. Geez, imagine wearing a lifejacket inside a sinking ship?
Don't think you have to be a sailor for over 65 years to have experienced bad, if not, treacherous, weather conditions when if you are not "al hatches" down and secure, it is obvious that the yacht will go down.
Manslaughter LOL.
In other words u decided to comment on this to tell everyone else how good u are and time served on the sea and your also a expert in accident investigation which your not actually ,,
So give yourself a medal pal
@@Ken-qm5xr The gentleman was paying a compliment to the presenter. Why would that annoy anyone?
@@LouKrieg Because some people would get annoyed if you tried to hand them $100 as a gift, probably. Or they did a hot-take of half of what was said? Hard to know! "Some people, though"!
Excellent presentation. No unnecessary drama. No assumptions. Good explanations and disclaimers. Well done.
And no idiotic, irritating background music as well.
Fully agree!
Good assumption😂😂😂 not sure,I don't know, I can't confirm 😂😂
Its what captains do. They deal with reality and say the truth. Their "principals" are the ones who bother about 'crowd size' and how far they can hit a golf ball ...
Great comment, he always does a good job
Many years ago, before we had all the fancy toys onboard, I used to deliver sailing yachts, mostly between the US and the Caribbean as well as across the Atlantic. I appreciate your level-headed comments. I was not at all suspicious to hear that most of the crew survived, as I felt certain they would have been called on deck just as reported. Yacht crew today are also required to have more safety training than back when I was sailing.
It is insulting to hear people blame the crew negligently leaving portholes and hatches open. I sincerely doubt that guests would do this either, as the yacht had AC throughout. However, divers are highly likely to find the main hatch, or in this case doors, open as those trying to escape needed to get out on deck very quickly to be able to exit the yacht. Would that large transom hatch have popped open under the huge pressure of that freek event?More revelations await.
When I read about the size of that excessively tall mast, I just couldn't stop thinking about how much windage that whole rig would present, causing the knockdown in such high winds. Beyond leveling the boat on the sea surface, the sheer weight of that massive mast could drag the boat over even further. It is unfair of the builders to immediately rush to conclusions that blame the crew.
You're quite right! Way too many people jumping to conclusions w/out the facts. Apparently, the former captain of the Bayesian (from 2015 - 2020) released a statement giving key details about the structure of the vessel. Among other things, he said the Bayesian actually did not have any windows/portholes that opened. They were all bonded to the hull. Interesting that that theory was so heavily floated by media, when it would've been easy to disprove. Part of the Captain's statement below:
"The Downflooding Angle is much more important though in the scenario we are talking about. This is the angle of heel at which water will start to enter the vessel (usually through engine room or accommodation ventilation ducts)… once this starts the vessels is in serious trouble as stability is quickly reduced or lost due to the flooding.
The downflooding angle for Bayesian was around 40-45 degrees… much less than the AVS. So, unless the vent dampers are closed (which with HVAC systems and generator running they would NOT be as they need to be open for that), the vessel will start to flood rapidly if heeled more than the downflooding angle.
There are no opening windows or portholes, which are all made from laminated marine glass bonded to the hull & superstructure.
Other deck hatch / superstructure openings that breach the watertight integrity on Bayesian are on or close to the centerline of the vessel. For these to be taking water if open, the vessel would have to be heeled way beyond the Downflooding Angle mentioned earlier, and hence already flooding via ducting/vents.
Only one opening was located far from the centerline, and could be vulnerable to downflooding at lower angles of heel… this is the deck access to the lazarette area towards the stern. However, as it is located on the port (left) side of the aft deck, it would be unlikely to be an initial factor in this scenario as we know that Bayesian was knocked down to starboard, and as such this hatch, even if opened as crew were on deck etc, would have been one of the later parts to submerge.
The vessel Bayesian was sound and seaworthy by design, and to my knowledge well maintained as such. However, heeling her to more than around 45 degrees while in normal operational state could result in flooding and subsequent loss if the flooding could not be controlled.
The weather conditions that could have created these extreme circumstances can indeed occur with very little warning and being so localized are difficult to prepare for, leaving a very short time for the crew to react.
How the vessel came to be taken outside her operation limits is what the investigators will need to determine, which I’m sure they will."
In the final moments, with passengers scrambling to get on deck by opening hatches, and crew likely also opening hatches to facilitate their rescue, it had to be chaos. It's very difficult to assign blame to the crew and others (including the billionaire's wife) who survived.
It feels as if the captain is becoming the scapegoat for what was a tragic & devastating weather event.
Once the vessel was hit by the waterspout and capsized, it sank quickly. Tragic.
@@kimsanders-fisher4682
They would, tho, wouldn’t they?
I understand that this vessel had a retractable keel. If the keel was up (retracted) the vessel would be quite unstable in storm conditions I would imagine. I was also a licensed sailing master with a lot of water behind me but I'm not an expert on something like this. I was anchored on the North side of the FL keys one time when a water spout developed and everything happened so fast there wasn't even time to react. Luckily it was a smaller one and didn't go over me so all was fine. It must have been terrifying especially for the passengers. RIP
Keel was partially deployed.
Our boat was hit by a waterspout, a small tornado. We saw it coming (daylight) and had a minimum of time to prepare. Our deck hatches were closed but not dogged. When the waterspout hit, our hatches were violently and instantly ripped open, outward. The central pressure of a tornado is very low, so the internal air pressure in the boat blew our hatches. I could imagine the crew of Bayesian closing and dogging all the hatches, yet they were blown out from the inside. Further, most windows are designed to resist external pressure, not internal pressure. If the Boat was sufficiently healed, water might enter through blown out windows or hatches. Our boat did heal over, but not enough to reach the deck. Each event is different. We will learn more as the investigation continues.
Really informative, thank you.
I have been through a couple of Tornadoes we leave the windows open to prevent the pressure variances during the event, so you are correct I have flown in the eye of hurricanes and through waterspouts doing research..mother nature is very much in control
Ships "heel" over.
@@Milosz_Ostrow FFS we know that. It wasn't a 'ship' but a 'boat' if you want to be pedantic.
Thank you for your retelling your terrifying experience. 😣😣
Some years ago I was caring for a Formula 37PC in a marina in Southern Caifornia… on my weather app I saw a thunder storm approaching… but when it hit it was a Micro burst… this was clocked at 96 mph… it happened in an instant, no warning.
It was throwing kayaks through the air and blowing people out of their kayaks into the harbor. I thought the Bimini was going to be shredded for sure… eventhough the boat was tied to the dock it was being blown and listing to starboard then forward and back.
The wind and rain and noise was horrific… beyond description!
There was two women in a kayak rowing towards me… a young girl of about 12 yrs in the front shouting at the top of her lungs commands! Right - Left straight to her grandmother in the back… I brought them on board and gave them towels… no words were spoken as everyone was in such a state of disbelief.
To this day I still hear this young girl screaming in total fear yet complete control the directions to her grandmother. What a soul!
Microbursts are nothing to dismiss.
Omg reading this comment just made me cry, I can only imagine how scared that young girl was n for her to step up n take control, wow what an amazing girl and for u to be there n allow them on board is really outstanding. Some ppl just ignore when someone is in distress, so that’s awesome that u helped. But omg I’m so glad everyone was ok.
@@jgsg2620 It’s so disorienting in that kind of situation…. They were scared as hell and I’m watching this crazy surreal situation going on, and then it kicks in… OMG these people are in trouble…
I was happy to be able to help.
Interesting! Thanks for sharing.
🙏🏽😭🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽🫵🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽❤️
I had a beautifully treed 1 Acre sloped lot at French Beach BC and a mini tornado knocked almost every one of my trees down without even affecting any of my neighbours on either side
Following this. Thank you for great explanation. My dad's boat was a 75' two-masted schooner, also deemed unsinkable due to a large and heavy keel. He had the boat from 1959 to 2009 and sailed around the world, but before that, the mainmast broke in a race, and he replaced it with a shorter mast and lighter sails. There are many, many ways to die on a boat, even while in dock. Unseasoned sailors need to be made to understand how much peril they are in, no matter the size of the vessel.
A large and heavy keel sounds good to me. I would never go to sea in a boat without a substantial keel, and those single long masts seem impractical for heavy weather.
And the fact there's no such thing as an unsinkable boat, period. Human arrogance is limitless apparently.
As an airline pilot I know a thing or two about "microbursts". A microburst occurs when a thunderstorm cell, or convective activity is building. Warm moist air gets sucked up through the center of the cell. Warm air rises. The cell will rapidly build as all of this warm air full of moisture rises to the top of the cell. When the air can hold no more moisture, and this warm moist air has cooled off. The moisture freezes. And the storm can no longer hold it aloft. Cold air sinks! The storm then goes into what they call a dissipating stage. All of this supercooled water and frozen moisture comes crashing down in the middle of the cell. Like a solid wall of water and hail in an elevator shaft. This shaft of water and falling air is extremely powerful and concentrated. Hitting the surface with very strong winds. Dissipating in all directions. Many an airliner has been taken down by microbursts. Just like an airliner, a ship/yacht would fare no better against this very dangerous meteorological event. RIP to all those lost. Like most accidents/tragedies like this, the best outcome would be to learn what happened. And prevent it from ever happening again!
Appreciate this info about microbursts
@@avatardirect a Boat would have no escape, it seems. Pilots simply point their nose upward and gun their engines - as long as you don't hit or stall, we're good. Do not try to land during a mb. Go around.
A microburst flattened six houses here in Kansas City back in 1980s. My friend and his kids were across the street watching a kids video ..they came outside and his house was gone They can come suddenly The plane crash in Dallas was the first anyone ever heard of one ( public I mean)
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@@kayallen7603 As an airline transport pilot, I can assure you “just gun your engines” sounds like an easy escape, but realize, you have the time it takes to realize it’s happening, then the time it takes to react with power and pitch, and the delay involved in engine thrust, acceleration (which is lengthy due to acceleration of possibly 300,000 lbs), and a hopeful positive rate of climb.
Your candor and humility in sharing information are greatly appreciated. It is refreshing to witness an individual who maintains decency and refrains from asserting every opinion as absolute truth. Thank you for your thoughtful contribution(s). As always.
Full marks to the dive teams and the Italian Authorities who obviously pulled out all the stops to get this gruesome task done. Hope the UK govt sends an official recognition and thanks.
I think the flag state is usually involved in the investigation. That's the way aircraft investigations are handled. Since is was flying a UK flag, they're involved.
I am more interested in the amount of spaghetti they ate this week.
Do they put so mich effort in for other boats? when refugee boats sink etc
They were asked this is the press conference and they said yes.
It’s not even relevant though
@@SerendipityChild no. They don’t carry billionaires, the refugee boats carry something far different.
Thanks for your videos, I am an American living in Italy for 22 years now. I have been following the Italian news and it seems today they reported that the ship will be raised. They also reported and confirmed that the ship sank stern first and then on its stbd side. This almost confirms that the stern door was left open. The crew probably forgot and while they were on deck securing everything they missed closing the door. They will probably keep the crew in Italy as much as possible with some type of excuse being medical. If I hear anything else I will let you know. Thanks
@@NormanBlaineEchelberry Apparently, the first officer or deckhand was a 22 year old kid, Matthew Griffith according to The Sun UK. He was probably watching TikTok videos while the superyacht was sinking. This might be the same reason why he and the rest of the crew forgot to close the door and do other important tasks. The new generation should be called the TikTok generation, so I’m not surprised by them perhaps being irresponsible since most of these new generation people brains are damaged at the young age already.
oh God 😢
I watched the press conference today and the Prosecutor said their first concern was to tend for the survivors' physical and mental health and that they would likely be interviewed again. He said: we have no means to keep anyone in Italy without charge, and that is a fortunate thing because if we had that capacity that would mean we would be living in a society without freedom.
Realistically there is no way the surviving victims of this tragedy can be retained in Italy without charge and no charges will be forthcoming within months, perhaps years.
@@pinakkoladaa What a stupid comment.
Stern first makes much more sense than yesterday's Guardian report that the vessel sank bow first. Also makes sense of the report that five victims moved to and were found together in a forward port cabin closer to the bow.
I’m a captain for the last 20 years in the Med. I’ve personally seen 4 waterspouts/tornados just North of Sicily, all of them at the same time, and 3 other times single tornados. For me, it seems to be an area prone to Tornados.
It’s a sad story that what becomes your SOP and works for years, can one time, be the wrong SOP and you get crucified for it.
My heart goes out to the family of the guests and for the crew. There is a go fund me for the crew that have lost all their possessions.
Stay safe out there!
Done and shared -maybe they'll give something to the Chefs family also?
@@jasoneganis the crew that lost all their possessions.....ffks, LIVES WHERE LOST!!!
@@standup4urrights438 yes, but those who lost their lives do not need a GoFundMe
@@standup4urrights438indeed, lives were lost… and the dead cannot be helped. The survivors can be helped. The families of the very wealthy guests don’t need financial help, but The Family of the Canadian Antiguan chef can be helped, and crew members may need help.
The crew take a small tiny backpack on board that's it, all there possessions yeah right especially that poor crew member that had that family heirloom mahogany 24 seat dining table onboard, get real.
Once again, we see why this channel is the best for yacht related news.
We have a 38 foot cruiser at water line twin engine aft cabin cruise. We have been boating since 2000 and had this boat since 2005. Early on we learned secure the boat at all times regadless of forcast. This past summer we encountered 3 high wind conditions when anchored and on buoy that were not forcasts. The first was while anchored in 30 feet we were hit with 40MPH winds with gusts to 60. Position system indicated we moved 40 yards during max wind but next morning returned to original rest postion. Other blow we were on bouy in a protected area except to NW wind was not forcast. Waves were 4 feet and wing gusts to 70MPH. The top blew off the waves. We double rope to all buoys. One rope wore half way through. Point is secure your boat when you run and at night. Both time we stayed up all night ready to take action if required.
Very wise, being on the sea is serious stuff.
@@anjou6497 The sea is cruel.
@@davidrobertson606 buoys are tough because you never know how well it was set and how well the tackle is maintained.
Good job buddy, you respect nature .
We went with friends on their pontoon in a giant lake and we realized we were drifting deapite little wind, we added a second anchor. I almost didn’t go because I deal with trauma from nearly drowning as a kid over 35 years ago. My husband was SHOCKED when I actually got into the water in the cove area (I used a life jacket and a buoy). We’ve been together 21 years and that may be the third time I’ve ever gotten into a body of water that wasn’t a gym pool. I am FASCINATED by documentaries and reality shows about ships at sea and people who dive down to shipwrecks for example but I puke never do that. I’m claustrophobic and my now husband didn’t know that or my near drowning and he was a scuba diver working to be on the dive rescue team. I took a one day intro for beginners in our YMCA pool with all the gear and I survived but I told him I would never try it again. He felt awful I even tried it to begin with but was trying to impress him :)
My vessel is only 42 feet long and I am here to tell you that when we get into particularly rough conditions, much less a "storm", every person on the vessel must and does don a life preserver. My family has the suspender style self inflating ones but the rest of the guests put on type 3 (waterskiing style) vests for the duration of the event. If someone refuses to put them on they will not be invited back aboard.
@@HyperionMV That is sensible and should be made law.
I don't know why passengers were not woken and given life jackets.
It may have been a downburst but if more than 3 rooms has ingressed water and the engine master tried to start the engine and turn the boat towards the harbour the water would shift to that side and list the boat.
The boat was turned away from the wind. The film from the other boat shows the mast in front of the bridge and first deck.
I believe they tried to turn the boat with the excess water in. That would not only shift the boat but all the stuff in the garage or engine room. That's what capsized it.
@@courtneysquill8843 The captain is cooked. Unless sabotage can be proven he is going to jail.
@@HyperionMV I am curious about the watch who was showing cushions etc. Was he also putting sun loungers in the tender. Did he tamper with the doors for speed. He first described coming out of lounge and gestures opening saloon doors in upright position. So boat was upright then and he wasn't on the bridge and boat was turned away from and abeam of wind as seen on camera. Was it really a down burst or was it large ingress of water in the squall causing the tilt.
3.53am power outage. So water must have already been in the boat to cause this. How long did that take. He claims to have woken captain at 2am. Plenty of time to steer boat to harbour. Plenty of time to get lifejackets on passengers.
I think there wasn't a Watch. I think Watch was asleep and thought it's just a bit rough I will put away furniture etc on deck. Then he woke crew as boat took on water. No one woke passengers. So the crew were mustered around 3.30 and while he woke them and captain water was entering because he must have left a hatch open. The power outage was before the tilt.
Definitely credit to those divers. Not only extremely dangerous for them, but also very difficult mentally.
I'm sure they were paid very well
So traumatic to tow out deaf bodies...
I feel for the divers and rescue people involved. It must be horrendous to recover the victims and I am sure they will be haunted by what they saw. The whole situation is devastating and I hope all affected will be supported going forward.
Thanks for the informative videos which give common sense and a desire to find the truth amidst all the conjecture and misinformation. Really appreciate it.
Same here, but I feel for the crew also. Because there is always pressure that comes from users, and the threat of losing your job is ever present in those scenarios where 'the customer is always right' and entitlement reigns supreme.
Risking being seen as a killjoy, or being raked over the coals for precautions against possible events that seem remote or absurd, adds to this.
Compounding this is the effect of alcohol which relaxes inhibitions and you have a very complex situation. The facts will come to light but this is an appalling situation and I am mindful of the need to hold back on judgement. I would hope family and loved ones are keeping their own counsel and not exposing themselves to the ready condemnation that is flooding many commentaries. This channel is a valuable source of information.
So you feel for the divers and the crew... what about the victims?? 🤔
@@villagranvicent The victims are dead.
You cannot "feel for" the dead.
You can only offer condolences to their loved ones.
@@villagranvicent I feel for all involved in what is a hellish situation and it should go without saying. So much loss and devastation. Of course I feel for those who are grieving but the divers will never forget what they saw and the crew will no doubt be feeling responsible and may also be held legally responsible whilst trying to process that.
I am Italian and I live in Palermo. I listened to the press conference of Cartosio, the prosecutor in charge of the investigation. As he said, it is very likely that there are many co-causes that have intervened, the weather, the behaviour of the crew and maybe other elements. However, there is one thing to say. That night the storm did not start at 4 but at half past two. It was a very violent first part that lasted about half an hour, with very strong wind and heavy rain and then with a break only from the force but not from the rain that continued anyway. Then it was resumed at 4. Strong and with horizontal wind with different direction. If the vessel was not secured the first time, it had already taken the first wave of water and wind at 4 o’clock. This is to say that it is not true that it was sudden and it is not true that it was not known that the rain would come because we had been waiting for it for two days. It was also written in the municipality’s telegram channels. In fact, that night the fishermen did not go out and we had pulled down the umbrellas that we keep on the terraces to prevent the storm that was about to arrive that night from making us fly them away. We will see what comes out of the procedural truth.
I read on a local restaurant page that could see the Bayesian...they had a party onboard the night prior to the tragedy. I think that plays into a lot of the decisions made and timing...
Obviously you don't know what a microburst is
@@alefer007 thank you for this information
@@julie5316 I’m not sure who you’re referring to, but if you’re responding to me, sorry, but I definitely know what I’m talking about. I have a sailing license, so I’m very familiar with this. All the other vessels and ships were saved; the one closest to the Bayesian performed the correct safety maneuvers well before 4 AM. Apparently, this was not done on the Bayesian. What is said internationally is one thing, what the newspapers report is another, and then there’s what we experience and see ourselves from here. If no one went out that night, there must have been a reason, don’t you think? Moreover, in these days following your comment, details are emerging that all point towards multiple human errors, negligence, and very poor care. The latest witness, who provided additional video footage of the vessel, testified in front of the prosecutor and mentioned that she had commented to the coast guard that it wasn’t a good place to spend the night. We knew that. They... well, they were celebrating that night. Anyway, we’ll see what comes out. The rest is all speculation.
@@alefer007 Not referring to you but always remember there is lots of people with experience commenting here...there is some news today from the captain
I think you are handling this very professionally and sensitively, Well done. 10/10
Incidentally there was a downdraft forecast for August 16th between north Sardinia and Corsica, it ended up being not as severe as Arome predicted, but if you remember there have been bad storms during this period in Formentera as well as the Derecho from last year which was severe. I have been through the Zorbas medicane and wind speeds of over 100knots were recorded (we sheltered safely). All of these events are seemingly unforcast, but I don't buy that. Low pressure systems as well as high CAPE values are what we look at all the time as sailors. At this time of the year, we tend to look at multiple weather models and at every update possible. When I am paranoid about waiting for the next update in some hours - I also look at the barometric pressure. Maybe it is because we are only 14 meters, perhaps I would be less nervy on a bog boat - well. not now!
As an ex-pilot, and a current yachtsman (although I only sail a 13m catamaran) I agree a microbursts can be a major issue for planes, it can be compared to a boat suddenly being hit by a very strong current that is far faster than the boat's ability to sail / motor.
However I would be very concerned if a boat of this size could be pushed down or taken beyond the angle of vanishing stability by one.
If so they were very unluck to have a incredibly large one exactly over them, but sufficiently far away from other boats that they were not hit by the horizontal part of a downdraught as well, I would have expected other smaller boats in the area to have been flattened by a downdraught event.
We will need to see what the experts from the UK Marine Accident Investigation Branch find, but we should not blame anyone at this stage, it is also likely to be a series of small errors, across many areas, that accumulated into a major problem.
Excellent reporting, very well done, and I appreciate the matter of fact way this is being handled.
The swiss cheese model will certainly apply. If it was a waterspout there would be witnesses whereas a microburst would not be so obvious. Whatever the phenomenon I'm sure the AIS of other boats in the vicinity may help narrow it down. Some might also have a record of the windspeeds and direction.
I wonder what role the anchor played in this as well? Did one drag while another got hung up putting the boat in a very unsafe condition? When the boat did tip over what hatches were open?
@@antonioarroyas7662Yep...the hatches
@@DavidPritt-xh7qq the first big error was to keep the keel up because It is noisy... mainly in august and only a few days after Menorca disaster...
I suspect all those small would-be errors were committed in the name of VIP convenience
Sailboats with substantial rigs at anchor face a phenomenon where they literally try to sail or tack themselves up wind even with no sails deployed ;and when the anchor stops the vessel the heeling moment can suddenly increase. It is a precarious position I have experienced my self in a small 6.5 meter high performance sailboat. It also causes a mass of water to push up the side deck of the craft all the way to the center / main hatches on deck , I was shocked when it happened to my small yacht but I was completely buttoned up all hatches in place and pinned locked down - i suspect they just could not believe and react fast enough to what was going on, I hope they do not destroy the captain anymore than he already is. I think this could have happened to many well qualified and experienced super yacht captains, could he have been more prepared yes but hindsight 20/20 "least not ye be judged" is what I am thinking now.
imagine being those divers, swimming along narrow, horizontal stairways and corridors, turning left and right instead of up and down, through a space barely large enough for your body with a tank on your back, seeing only what your headlight can illuminate, no peripheral vision, alone behind your mask and dependent on your regulator to breathe, opening cabin doors above and below you while looking for and finding bodies. Once you find them you have to go down into the cabin with them and push them up into the corridor. Maybe you push them up to your buddies. Then you all tow them alongside until you've exited the boat and then drag them to the surface.
How would you ever be able to really share what that was like to someone who had never done it?
@@kenton6098 So have you?
I am thankful no harm came to any of the recovery team.
Me too, their job is grim, exhausting and very dangerous.
No doubt, 165 feet is not an easy dive, actually pretty dangerous. My brother used to dive a lot when he lived in West Palm beach. I asked him if he’d ever been that deep and the look on his face was his answer. He looked at me like I had a penis growing out of my forehead. With so many dives being made, how minutes of dive time, I’m really amazed there hasn’t been another fatality. Of course I hope I’m not speaking too soon cause I know they’re not done yet, there’s talk of them raising the ship!
@@chrisemerson7743 If you had a penis growing out of your forehead you wouldn't be diving anywhere honey ! 🫣
they were only 300 meters from shore
I read the divers said it was very disorienting in the yacht because there were mirrors all over that shone their headlamps back at them. Can you even imagine? And the bodies were wedged between and behind furniture, and then there is the 90 degree resting angle. I think deep rescue divers are the bravest men on the planet.
Your channel is the most unbiased source of information and I appreciate your commitment to truth, not sensationalism! Whatever happened, I do not believe for a moment that the crew would voluntarily abandon the guests, I am sure that whatever happened was sudden, unexpected and terrifying! Time will tell what did not happen, ie struck by lightning, doors left open etc., but the crew will be emotionally overwhelmed for a while, understandably so, and getting a clear account of what happened may take a few days. It is a horrible tragedy!
I regret to say, I think it was crew negligence.
They should all have been on watch.
They all made sure they were on the lifeboat. They made sure they had flares and torches.
The passengers were not weakened till boat tilted.
Your explanation of a microburst is spot on. Being an aviator we go through training to escape these in the simulator. Even the chances of actually escaping these are limited. On a boat on the water, there is no escape and all is up to mother nature. Usually microburst warnings at airports last about 15 minutes and we circle around until the warnings go away.
I have seen what a microburst does to a forest. Snapping/upending trees that are thick as a man. Extremely local phenomenon. There were profoundly unlucky if that was what happened.
Do microbursts also carry tons of water as I have heard?
@@michaelcrane2475 Yes that is part of the mechanism that creates the massive downdraft.
I was a passenger in a light aircraft twin engined on a day return tourist flight from Las Vegas to the Grand Canyon. During the flight I became concerned at the very close distance we were travelling at times to high points in the topography. Being at the back I was also squashed in. They remarked later that I looked very worried, implicit in this was that I am female. I explained that my parents flew gliders and we were flying into an approaching storm (something I was not informed of prior to departure). In this situation I was mindful that the air pressure and general conditions could become dangerously unstable. They took note and we spent hours on the ground after that waiting for the storm to pass. It turned out these guys were ex Air Force guns, who specialised in aerobatics. I did not sign up to have my life put in danger and they were on notice. Hanging out at the airport for many hours was boring, but I am used to it. Safety first and glider pilots are very mindful of risk. We flew back in the dark and I the only passenger who was quite happy about that.
@@deborahcurtis1385 The ability to assess risk is sometimes degraded when people have a lot of flight time. Flying is amazing but you are always exposed to unknowns you can never fully take into account. Your knowledge kept everyone on the flight being reckless. Good for you.
So sad Hannah was left alone 🙏. Cannot imagine what that poor girl went thru, hope was quick for her. My ❤breaks for all left behind.
But why was she alone. Why weren't passengers wakened. Were they locked in from bridge. They didn't know till the last minute but the watch woke captain at 2am allegedly.
And captain says awake everyone. Noone woke passengers though.
So by the time the young sailor went to wake captain it must have been already serious otherwise why do you need all crew. And they didn't wake passengers because they didn't want them to be alerted to hatches open. And they didn't rescue passengers as there was no room in life raft.
Surely the passengers on port side would be easier to get out unless they couldn't get out. So why not prioritise the owner and his family the. His friends. Because the owner and his friends were highly intelligent and influential and would know they cocked up.
Dead owners tell no tales.
The fact Hannah was alone and didn't try to locate her father and vice versa means that the passengers were unaware till the boat started tilting. Mrs Lynch confirms this. She left after first tilt.
A father and daughter would try to find each other unless they couldn't be ause they were locked in.
How is it port side was locked but not starboard. Who locked port side.
If nothing else this loss of life will remind us all to train/re/train ourselves and our crews/family/friends on emergecy drills.
Before I did my transpacific passage in my catamaran I debated the optimum location for the 8 man liferaft. This process made me re-imagine my boats whole interior layout. Imagine the catamaran now capsized. the bilge in each hull is now the ceiling, the ceiling is now the floor and underwater. instead of ascending the steps from each hull to the centre salon, you would now have swim DOWN the stairs to the now completely submerged salon to escape through the submerged sliding doors into the submerge cockpit. This is why I didnt mount the life raft on the roof of the salon, nor even on the deck, the higher the raft above the water line when upright, the deeper the raft when capsized. The best (or least bad) place I determined was as close to the water line upright, therefore at or only just below the waterline capsized. Also re-think your cabin ceiling hatches. Not just for light and ventilation. Upside down they are emergency exits, albeit submerged now and you'll need to dive down and out, but still an option, maybe your only option if your cabin door is blocked. There was on my Catamaran like most bluewater boats an escape hatch in each hull which, when capsized would become a hatch out onto the upturned hull. Many owners are removing these hatches which although sometimes leak are vital to retain. Only once you reimagine your boat interior for a worst case survival situation can you improve you and your crews chances to actually survive.
Living in Italy I have been following coverage of this on Italian TV. It is interesting and helpful to hear what the Italian coast guard etc. are reporting and then watching your reporting. What a terrible situation anyway you look at it and I thought from the first day that the boat will need to be raised and thoroughly examined to try to understand what really happened. I have learned quite a bit from you about what if any kind of “black box” recording does actually exist. What a learning moment that any boats of a certain length should be required to have such a recording device on board!!! It will take perhaps months before any definitive conclusion might be reached. For now my prayers go out to the family of those who lost their lives aboard ship. Thank you for reporting what information you have please do not stop.
Any engines or generators that were running would have automatically shut down via tilt switches when the boat reaches a high degree of heel so as to protect the engines from water getting into the air intakes or damaging themselves via hydraulicing sump oil and in the event should they break free from their mounts Crew exit the boat by a separate access and do not come through the guest area. The crew except for the chef would have been heading out to the deck to deal with the dragging anchor and would have had lifejackets on. In a storm like this you would not be able to see or communicate over distances more the 3 feet. Some of the crew were possibly blown into the water and it is remarkable that they managed to get any of the passengers to safety. A knock down with a 70 metres mast only requires the top 25 metres of the mast to fill with water before the boat is unrecoverable unless it had a 10 metres counter weight keel weighing 45 tons; the keel was not sufficient to do this either in the up or down positions , The mast did not have any inbuilt positive flotation material or buoyancy to stop or counter water ingress . The aft saloon doors must have been opened to get passengers out and this combined with the knockdown would have caused the down flooding. It would have taken for a very brave action to stop passengers from getting out of the boat by sealing all doors in the hope that boat might recover. Brave crew faced with an impossiible set of choices whilst risking their own lives
RIP passengers. It seems like they faced a horrific situation :( Hope they didn't suffer long! RIP!!!
Thank you, no better source than your channel.
I got far more information than this from the main media and the BBC 6 or 8 hours ago this is well behind😮
@@fordprefect4345 is it percy?
Thank you for keeping us updated. You are the only channel I watch for updates on reliable news without gossip and speculation.
Sailor for forty years here. A friend and I were out on my sailboat one beautiful day. Perfect sailing weather, good breeze, maybe a few clouds in the sky, but nothing threatening. Sailing along nicely under main and jib, then WHAM, got hit with two microbursts lasting only a couple seconds each and just a few seconds apart. First one put the mast in the water very quickly to port, she stood right back up about as quick as she was knocked down, and then the second one hit knocking us over to starboard. My friend went flying across the deck right into the lifelines. Again she stood right back up. Not a drop of water, no damage, and no one injured, although, I imagine my friend may have been a bit sore where he hit the lifeline. Rest of the day was perfect!
interesting input !
Identical event happened to me. Beautiful sunny day, 8kts of breeze just sailing on port along in an open 6mJI.
Out of nowhere we were slammed down on port and being an open cockpit the boat righted itself but filled up half the cockpit and the next second we were slammed down on starboard and again took on a lot of water.
Sailboats around us saw nothing ! We were barely afloat on a calm sea (hot day) and had to make it back sailing a sluggish boat filled with water and pumping more than we ever had.
When we got ashore, the harbourmaster ran down to shout at us that "This is a private dock" .... I was VERY explicit with him and said that we would move as soon as we had sorted the half sunken yacht out. He left 🙂
The most surprising thing though is that nobody else saw it happen. It was over within a minute. Port/Starboard and we just looked at each other knowing that a third pushover and we'd sink like the 2.5 tonnes of lead that were in the keel. Straight down there and then. Luckily there was not third strike.
Sometimes Mother Nature takes a moment to remind us to mind her power *without* immediately actually-drowning us....but then she drowns us later that week if we didn't listen well enough, of course! :)
@@EShirako "my friend and I"
This sort of thing has been reported over the years on Lake Ontario. The nasty thing about a downburst is that it gets more power over sailboat the more it heels, opposite to what happens in a horizontal wind. Hence the "slamming down" aspect of the knockdown.
Great info! Thanks. I get so disappoind with people jumping to conclusions and saying stupid things.
A retractable keel and a 75m high mast seems like a scary combination.
Only if the keel is retracted. Even at anchor, it's still a sailboat, and the keel is the ONLY thing keeping that boat upright.
It is... A design flaw....and it was up.. that's fatal
@@geordieschall2092I just read in another comment that the keel was half retracted. I wonder what stability is like on this boat with a half retracted keel. I can see water getting into the open dinghy garage. Even though there is apparently a water tight door from the garage, it could’ve been poorly secured. Of course, once the boat was on its side, water could’ve poured in a ton of places. With that keel half up, there may not have been enough righting motion to overcome the water that had already started pouring through the doors/ hatches. Apparently, the big garage doors won’t open unless the water tight door leading into the boat is closed, however it’s super common to see this mechanism bypassed. While that could’ve been a contributing factor, this seems to have happened really fast, faster than one of those water tight doors in the garage if left open would seem capable of causing.
That keel deal screams red flag to me. Surely a lot emphasis would have been put on lowering it as far as possible in the event of adverse weather. Would love to know what the manufacturer had to say about various keel positions & how far the yacht could heel before compromising stability.
Why would the keel ever be retracted and not always stay a full keel?
@@geordieschall2092 The keel was not extended.
One of those microbursts took out a very large healthy oak tree twisting it off above the ground where it was over four feet across
This was a very healthy tree later harvested for lumber and leaving all the neighboring trees that it interleved with and our house some 40 feet away completely untouched! Not even a significant branch was broken. It slamed to the ground some two feet away from our shed which was about 4 feet from the tree's original position.
Some years ago, here in Montreal, a storm system rolled through. Where I live, we were on the calmer side of the storm. (3.1 km) from here to the West, was a park surrounded by homes and trees that were centuries old. A Microburst dropped on the park. All of the trees were snapped like twigs and destroyed. And all the houses surrounding the park, sustained damage the cars parked around the periphery were also destroyed. So a microburst, if that's what took place, has very destructive power. I could see why the boat sank so quickly, even if there were/weren't open doors, the boat probably did not stand a chance, against a flash storm that overwhelmed them.
That's my supposition as well, until we learn more.
Apparently the tornado creates a severe negative pressure that can expĺode any closed container in its vicinity .
Truth be told.. however it seems that only this Yacht was affected.
Nearby boats did not suffer the same conditions..
@@lisamessina4530 Wrong place, Wrong Time. I'm not a meteorologist, but I've seen weather do very interesting things from my vantage point, where I live. I know that no other boats in the vicinity were affected, we should wait for the report on the vessel itself and it's state of operation at the time of the incident. I was just offering my experience with the phenomena of a microburst. I wasn't even attempting to make a definitive description of events.
@@lisamessina4530
Have you heard of waterspouts? Which is essentially a tornado in the water. Witnesses (fishermen) say they saw it get side tracked by the walls surrounding the harbour and head straight for the Bayesian.
In the mid-1970s, my wife and I were at anchor in our 32' cruising sailboat and experienced an early-morning thunderstorm which part way through delivered a micro burst of 105 MPH (reported by a shore station). The boat was laid flat for about five seconds then quickly recovered upright. However, whenever whenever anchored we always were in a position to get underway in less than one minute if we had to. We did carry a self-activating life raft in a canister but (fortunately) it didn't activate. Two things: Situations like this are always surprising and nearly always disorienting. And we survived that incident because we made sure everything was dogged shut moments before the storm hit. Condolences to the families of the deceased.
wat type keel?
@@richtensail: Full length, cast iron ballast.
u had a proper seaworthy keel, harder to get ito serious troube, unlike modern yachts.
This is the best yachting info on the internet... If I'm wrong, please give me a better one. I'm a land lubber but, enjoy casual sailing and kayaking. Thanks for the great video.
THANKS ESYSMAN 🤗 for being a conscientious reporter and sharing what you can and we will wait for further reliable information🧐💚💚💚
Thank you. That explains why the crew was saved. RIP to all the lost 😞
Thank you, makes sense the crew were working and that's the reason they survived. Dreadful accident.
The chef being below in the galley securing that, also makes sense with a route out but too late to survive.
Not even an accident. It's an unfortunate event. If a meteor hits your house it's not an accident, it's a rare event known to occur occasionally.
@@fibber2u The fact that the boat sank so suddenly means the point of entry for the water was quite large.
@@JoeLinux2000 Yes an open lazarette with other watertight doors not closed perhaps. The tender as is said in the video could explain that. I assume it can be garaged.
Thank you for bringing calm and informed fact to this story.
I'm in a sailing club, a very serious club, Lake Grapevine Texas; our former Commodore on a check ride with a commercial airline pilot trainee, experienced what was probably a down burst in June 24, and they were lucky to get the boat home. He is very experienced but has seen nothing like this in his 40 plus years of sailing. He is still shook and emotional about it. It was a small boat to be sure, but the weather phenomenon was seemingly quite similar to what happened here. They were knocked down and stayed down and could not right the boat. It happened so quickly that they could not point the boat in advance. Mother Nature takes no prisoners, despite what Italian courts may think.
They must have cctv...
With your permission, imprudent & weird comment. Your court yet declared the cpt or the crew not guilty of anything, but investigations of both Italian and British authorities are still in progress...🤔 You know sometimes Mother Nature is the most comfortable reason to appeal for when it comes to some kinda tragedies ...
Thanks for making this awful event clearer. Brave, strong girl Hannah - sleep tight, back with Daddy now ❤. Condolences to all the families/loved one's affected. Much respect to the Italian Diver's for their honourable & selfless recovery.. Just tragic.
You have no knowledge of these people so shut up.
This is a public platform, you can’t “shut up” comments here. What a rude arrogant reply to the one empathic and respectful comment for the victims and divers. How can you be sure this person didn’t know them?
We don’t need to know victims and families personally to feel for them and send condolences. Even a bot and AI would’ve replied more humanely than you. Are you a bot-troll?
I've participated in airline crash investigations and they usually involve a series of issues, with any single issue being manageable while combinations overwhelm the crew. It seems possible the waterside steps down access to fore and aft sunken cabin areas (no pun) and doors would have been in use while securing Bayesian.... as well as some combination of crew access to the foredeck, lazaret and stern door. Assuming wind heeled Bayesian over the sunken cabin would have pooled water and stairwells, and any additional combination would have taken Bayesian down.
"All the holes in the swiss cheese lining up"
😢😢😢
My guess (and it is just a guess) would be that the main lounge was either open, or opened on it's own due the severe list (with both passengers and crew on deck, it wouldn't've been solidly bolted shut), letting water to the passenger area. This, combined with a list greater than the vessel could right itself from, may have been enough to sink her. The engine room, and probably lazaret, would've required ventilation for the machinery within, and thus probably had openings above the water line. So, while normally water tight, they may not have been water tight with the boat lying on it's side in the water (i.e. 90 degree list). I see no reason to assume that the stern and/or lazaret doors were open, rather I see a complete lack of evidence one way or the other on the state of those doors (it's possible that the divers and investigators know more but haven't (yet) shared that knowledge).
Doesn't look like there's any defence against a tornado except to jump into the water with a life-vest 😢
Crew quarters are forward of the mast.
Once again. Great Job and I'm certain it's not easy for you to continue going over the details of such a horrific event. Thank You
I am wondering if the huge single mast had more effect than has been acknowledged so far. When you said her sister ships had 2 masts an alarm bell started ringing in my head. Most long distance/professional non racer types prefer more than one mast if possible for a host of reasons - the main one being the reduction in weight aloft and consequent increase in righting arm. I sail a large ketch (2 masts) while more modern sister ships are sloops (1 mast) and I know which I prefer however the reasons why seem lost on the sloop owners - mast size has a fascination for some.
The lever arm on a mast this size would be be huge. After knockdown, even one tonne of water in the top of the 75m hollow mast and the folds of the roller sails would produce a 75 ton/m lever arm - a couple of tons more flowing in and you've got 225ton/m lever arm holding her down, if the keel's up the righting moment begins to deteriorate rapidly giving much more time for water to flow in through any openings.
Remember that automatic pumps go to the bilge, not the hull side so she would need to right in order for pumps to work. This is why, in a sailing vessel it's not the initial knockdown that's the issue - it's how fast the vessel gets back up again that matters -- the righting arm is the key - hence the terror around shifting ballast/cargo and moveable items - or even small openings in the weather deck. Anything that reduces the recovery time exponentially increases the risk of catastrophe - and a huge single mast instead of a couple of shorter ones fits that bill. If her righting arm had been larger, she'd have righted even with a door open and the crew could have taken action and the pumps would have kicked in giving everyone a fighting chance.
I suspect the wind didn't have to hold her mast down that long before the righting arm went to zero even if she hadn't actually started to sink at that point. Having been in knockdowns I know it is extremely difficult for the crew to do anything but hang on and wait. Old square riggers were designed to blow sails before this point - which is what doomed the Marques after her re-rig - nothing broke and she went under in a midnight line squall.
The description of 20 deg heel then a rapid increase to 90 doesn't sound like downflooding to me - it sounds more like an initial strong gale strength gust followed by the microburst/tornado squall. I suspect she then started to downflood and settled into the water at 90deg because of the air trapped in the upper side of the hull.
So it seems the crew didn't have much time to react.
The ballast and keel are there to keep the boat upright under sail. The stability calculations will prove the yachts stability even with the keel raised. The mast and rigging wind loading will be a fraction of the loading under sail. If the gale was force 6 to 7 this was nothing. If there was a downburst and it hit only one side of the yacht this may have been enough to force it over to 90 degrees.
Thanks for mentioning the divers, these guys do an amazing job under difficult circumstances
So many factors led to this sad situation. Prayers for all involved.
I've just gotta say thanks for the brilliant coverage. I learned a few years back when we lost a friend in a maritime tragedy that there's a big difference between the truth and what's reported in the media. I honestly can't believe some of the garbage out there regarding this accident .Really appreciate the work you're putting in to update the situation for us. Cheers.
The tender missing doesn't necessarily mean having that storage area open let water into the boat. Or nessesarily mean it was in the water tethered to the stern. The storage area would be a sealed compartment on the fore deck. On some yachts this area can be filled with water and used as a small swimming pool. Also, the bouancy of an inflatable tender is such that it COULD force the hatch open and the tender float to the surface and blow out to sea un noticed.
yeah tender painter cld hve parted knot unwound, it was blown n ver infaltables, esp if took on wtr it b heavy n put loat of stain on v lines whn getn pushed rnd by v waves, yacht draged anchor some way so vers a lot of force going on at v time.
Also to note is that all guest cabins are served by one single circular/spiral staircase. Approaching that staircase from below, the stairs rise to starboard. With the vessel heeling to starboard, the angle of the steps effectively decreases. However, as you walk up the stairs, the spiral then turns , and becomes rising steeply to port (or vice versa if I am reading the GA wrongly). The angle of the upper treads would now be no longer horizontal, and the stairwell would be canted to being over the escapees heads. The angle of the treads would be the (steep) angle of heel. So once half way up and moving around the spiral, the stairs are over your head and climbing is no longer possible. This is exacerbated on Bayesian as the spiral staircase (and crew service door) are both to starboard of the yacht's centre line, and therefore earlier immersed, and with the likelihood of a rapid waterfall from the main deck to fight against. Interior general arrangements focus on ergonomics when upright, not on the knocked-down/heeled scenario. A Class-lead forum should consider the extent to which the GA should be approved for such eventualities. Staircases are becoming ever wider and grander, and are mainly assessed for their 'chimney' risk during fire. It is doubtful that the panicked, struggling now-sadly-deceased guests accumulated by accident or coincidence in the port side guest cabin, where they were found by divers. If the interior design had offered a fore-and-aft stair from accommodation deck to main deck, then it would have been climbable at even extreme angles of heel. Emergency escape routes are aesthetically unattractive in guest areas and, again, are considered more for an upright vertical escape from fire, not a heeled escape from flooding. Low-level lighting would be underwater on the immersed side and, if still visible, would be leading the escapees to deeper water.
Fecking boat was a death trap in many respects. Looked cool but not engineered for safety.
The 6 were in port side cabins with doors sealed.
I take your point about spiral staircase but it is only 7 steps and if flooded the air in the lungs would make you buoyant to move up and through. You don't need steps. You'd pull yourself up and through if you can see the steps. If you can't see them that would be challenging. But it is easier to get out of a flooded boat then not.
They were 50 metres down. The oxygen would have been compressed at depth. They would suffer extreme pressure but as you rise the oxygen in your lungs expands. If they could have felt their way out from memory and understanding they were now on the side they might have made it.
Being in a large sinking upturned yacht at night would be similar to the helicopter escape drills we did annually in the military, this includes total confusion, loss of senses and without constant practice, almost impossible to escape from...
I grew up on a 41’ sailboat while travelling around the Bahamas and stopping in St. Maarten. We knew that water spouts can be very dangerous and if you saw one (while sailing) you tried to get out of it’s way as quickly as you could. We met sailors who had gotten hit/almost hit by water spouts and either the boat got terribly damaged or it sunk. Water spouts are just tornados on the sea.
This is a very horrific and sad incident as are all weather related tragedies.
Thank you for the update. We had just moved to Katy, Texas, and experienced a strong thunderstorm. Suddenly, all hell broke lose and soda bottles stored in the pantry burst, as well as our backyard looked like a junk yard. I was told it was a 'down burst' by the officials we called. Personally, I experienced ear pressure and landed on my butt. Crazy experience.
All broke loose, NOT lose.
Anything in Texas probably always looks like a junkyard, ya'll
I prefer 'lose' it's shorter.
I prefer "luse" it sounds better.
Now wondering if the air pressure in the boat was like that of soda bottles in a microburst, causing closed doors and windows to pop and that could have let the water in. Another sailor earlier on this thread, mentioned a similar thing happened to his boat.
@@wendygerrish4964 😂
Microbursts produce downdrafts of around 6,000fpm. It is deadly to aircraft and is something all airline crew train to avoid and perform an escape maneuver. Sometimes in the simulator you cannot recover from it as it is too intense.
Photographs of the Bayesian indicate skiffs stored out in the open on the foredeck with other toys stored in the stern lazarette. Photos as well as comments by experts on your channel indicate the main guest entertainment deck is recessed about a meter below the boats main deck, much like a giant center cockpit. This design substantially reduces the buoyancy and righting moment during a capsize. It also explains the relatively low (and alarming) maximum allowable heel angles published by the manufacturer with centerboard up. With various hatches and open stairs might be the root cause of sinking during this severe knockdown by winds acting the unusually tall mast.
aparently she is stable wit v stern compartment flooded, n takes 2 or mre compartments 2 flood 2 lose bouyancy n sink, so hw did v other cpompartment flood?. also i imganie v port side topside hatch would hve been abve waterline most of v incident as she was heeling 2 stbd. vers no stbd hatch in hull on vis yacht. im kida tinking v waterspout may hve dumped water onto yacht?, yeah that mast kinda looks ovrsize, my imediate thought was needs 2 b a ketch rig. vers vid of a sy getn knowkdown in auckland harbour in a marina under bare poles, she righted quicky. difernt keel-fixed. on bay swing keel was partially lowerd aparently, i used 2 do v same ting on my yahct 4 addedd stabilty whn i was anchoring o/n. keen 2 read v investigatrs report.
@@richtensail left the watertight door in the garage open????the tender wasn t there apparently so must be at sea
@@richtensail I hd a strk tryin 2 reed dis, 1337 shizz mon
Capt. eSysman, you're a class act. Kudos, kind Sir.
It makes comp!ete sense to me that the surface area and height of the mast would have provided enough leverage momement for the boat to keel over with that sudden strong wind and also that the keel was raised made that easier to happen
Yep, but heeling at 90 degrees and sinking are different things. The ship was designed to heel more than 90 degrees, to trust the builder.
The video shows: the lights go out at a 30-degrees gentle, slow, tilt of the mast to the right; due to the engine compartment having flooded in the stern. Therefore, the boat did not flood and sink from keeling-over sideways. The boat flooded from a hatch or multiple hatches left open; and a water-tight door or doors left open; allowing the water to flood multiple compartments.__
__Seems the divers would have seen open hatches and open water-tight-doors on the first dive. Loss of power and sinking may have closed the hatch, but not dogged it with pins.__
__Seems a fixed keel runs the length of the boat with a center-board that can be raised. Seems the fixed keel is weight enough to counter-balance the mast, and the center-board is to keep the ship straight when sailing and added stability against waves.__
__In the video; it looks like a regular storm; not a hurricane; not a water-spout, no big waves. The adjacent boat was able to immediately launch a tender and easily retrieve the flimsy raft containing 12-people.
@@PetarPopara Water ingress once it keeled over through open doors / windows ie there is that whole lounging area below the mast at deck level with plenty of doors. Rapidly filled up and sank.
Water spouts are very localized. I've been on a boat that was smashed down first on starboard then straight over to port. This is when it passes directly over you. A boat that is 50m away may just get a 50-70kts blow.
That mast and the words unsinkable is when wisdom in the heart overrun by ego lust.
Does anyone really NEED to have the tallest (or second tallest) mast on any sailing yacht in the world?
Pride cometh before a fall.
Exactly
@nancycole-auguste6614
I'm not a pilot, ex- or otherwise. Nor, am I a physicist or engineer.
But, when I first got a look at that gigantic mast, I almost fell off my chair.
Maybe I'm just an ignorant rube, but that boat looked dangerously top-heavy to me.
Too much virtue signaling. The boat looked beautiful under sail.
Yeah. A previous episode where he explained that the boat builders will do stupid things to appease the customer with small pp syndrome.
Thank you for making an update video today! Yours is my favorite source of accurate information about this tragic event.
On the 6 passengers in a room: you've mentioned ship was listing to starboard. Any indication whether boat had a pitch? if the only exit from the guest staterooms involved going down in water before reaching stairs, there might have been instinct of going up the dead end corridor to stay our of water. (not knowing about any emergency exit hatch/ladder). One would need to have the location of that room as well as ship's drawings to have any idea of why the passengers ended up there. (and also position of ship once resting at bottom whether that was the natural "up" for any floating objects. )
One other possibility is that they were in corridor filling up but when door to that stateroom broke, allowing water to fill that stateroom they were all sucked in there.
If the crew were on deck, the "manslaughter" aspect bight hinge on whether it was even possible to re-enter the boat at the time the event transformed from pesky storm that requires crew to awaken and stow fancy pillows to an event where boat is at risk of sinking. testimony more surving passengers will be key in this. This could still be that the crew performed heroically to save as many passengers as they could.
Thank you. Very informative, much more up to date than mainstream media.
Not sure what main Media you're listening to but got far more information than this seven or eight hours ago on the radio wrong wrong😅
@@fordprefect4345 At least it seems unbiased and accurate.
Where do you think he pick up his information.
During this morning's press conference a lady journalist has asked why toxicological and alcoholic tests had not been performed on crew members. The district attorney and his assistant stated that it was not a priority since the crew needed to be taken care of, having been hospitalized in a state of choc and with various injuries
I think you could still hit the 'keel down' button if you were stoned.
later they said, these tests will be performed
Under the circumstances, the suggestion is laughable.
The crew should have been given an immediate blood test to check for alcohol and drugs when they were admitted to hospital. It would not have delayed any treatment that was needed. I would have thought that this would have been done as a priority, just as much to eliminate drugs or alcohol as a contributing factor, but also to clear the crew if drugs or alcohol were not present. I hope this is not an indication of future sloppy work by the authorities.
Tanks for your objective professional reporting.
I had the misfortune to be hit by a microburst while sailing. It is terrifying! The wind comes vertically downwards and simply flattens the boat against the water. It is very sudden and thankfully very quick. Our 7 ton heavy traditional sailing cruiser was flattened, as a crew we were luckily thrown into the cockpit. Everything that could move was 'stripped' off the decks, and by the time we righted the cabin so so full off water up to the point we thought the boat would actually sink under us. Fortunately it didn't but everything in the cabins was floating around, as most cupboards hads emptied themselves. Total chaos.
What worries me about this accident is the loss of the passenger versus crew survival!
Very informative. . No 'jumping to conclusions'. . Just reporting on what information and official reteases are available with sensible discussion of possibilities, without claiming any answers. .
Well done. Keep it up, I appreciate it.
The power of a microburst is almost unbelievable. In Montreal 7 years ago there was one that damaged 400 trees. In one particular park that covers a city block, healthy mature maple trees had their trunks snapped like matchsticks. I think the park had to remove 75% of the trees due to damage.
A down burst makes sense to me as a way the ship could sink after ending up on its side. A constant wind pressure might have pinned the mast to the water long enough for water to flood enough of the ship that it could no longer right itself.
The town where I grew up suffered a significant microburst about 20 years ago. It knocked down over 1,000 trees, which were very old large trees. One barely missed my parents' house. The town had tree removal services all over the village for weeks afterward cutting up downed trees. The power of the microburst was unreal.
It was reported that with keel raised, the ship could withstand 73% of heeling, and with keel down, 88%. If knocked flat into the water, that ship would not be coming back up even if all doors were closed it seems. It would seem that if crew were working to stow deck items and already heeling 20%, that the keel should have been lowered.
@@HurricaneBruiserWith Keel up it could right at 90 degrees with keel down 120 degrees or go completely 360 degrees..the figures you quote are very inaccurate.
@@glassinisource?
@@patrikfloding7985 Designer Ron Holland
I worked for a highly regarded Norwegian registered cruise line for a couple of years. I can't look away from this disaster. The first thing you do when you get on an ocean liner is a safety drill! I just read about the sinking of the USS Indianapolis too. People have to be aware and prepared. It'sjust tragic.
If the owner wanted safety drills, he could have ordered them. He went down with his ship.
Some people believe they can afford to be careless because they paid other people to look out for them. But obviously it doesn't work like this. Before death everyone is equal; one can argue one's way out of a US Court, but not out of the implacable debt collector.
@@PetarPoparahow any educated person could underestimate the sea is beyond me. It's one of the greatest villains in literature.
Yeah but rich people buy yachts because they exactly don't want these inconveniences.
Safety drill on a large cruise ship is completely different from a 56M sail ship. On a large cruiser it would be easy to get disoriented, simply because of the sheer scale, sheer distances to cover and the amount of decks, however on the Bayesian Perini yacht if you are a guest, drill is important but unlike a cruise ship your distance to get to the main deck is only about 20 meters, as you are only one deck down.
Once on deck you are close to the waterline unlike a cruise ship. The worst scenario, you get yourself in the water if the yacht is going down. I think unfortunately the yacht capsized in relatively calm waters compared to that of Atlantic storms, and due to unforeseen and freak squall circumstances along with the energy of the waterspout. My understanding that an actual severe storm at the port had not been issued by the Italian Meteorological office, correct me if I’m wrong and they had only forecast thunder and lightning with some torrential rain. For sure with this forecast there would obviously be some driving wind to contend with. The Baden Powell which was anchored only 150 meters away was apparently sparred the weather barrage and the waterspout. If the Meteorological office predicted a severe storm at port, I would then have expected the crew to have operated differently, I don’t think they foresaw the climatic conditions that caused the yacht to capsize. Of course I also know that the local fishermen had remained at port as they were aware being out at sea there were elements of danger that they wished to avoid, but the Bayesian was anchored close to shore. I am not trying to make any assumptions and I refuse to point fingers, but it is a tragedy, and yes maybe a garage door was open at the time when destiny hit. Maybe the design engineering was close to the limits, maybe the centre board should have been dropped at maximum, but we are a species of explorers always at limit. Without this, call it character or DNA, we would never have stepped on the moon. It’s a tragedy and it’s sad, but it is what it is, the Bayesian propelled the yachting industry into the future when it was built, a remarkable feat of engineering, but just like us mortal humans, it is just part of evolution. Don’t condemn Bayesian, the Owners vanity or the crew, because without them we will still be grounded in the past. Pay tribute to all who have lost and sacrificed their lives to the taming of the seas.
Thanks for the excellent video and for a complete lack of Video Library excerpts! Your delivery is perfect.
Surprisingly no question at the press conference was asked about recovery of the CCTV footage computer as there are cameras all over the place that would have shown movements of passengers / crew in many areas at least until power got cut off.
Thanks for keeping us updated with your highly accurate videos!
All of this happened so quick and in the dark !!
Thank you eSysman Sir.....
Old F-4 pilot Shoe🇺🇸
It's never pitch dark on a yacht as luxurious as that. I mean, you can still see your way around without problems at all times.
@@PetarPopara do they have emergency lighting that comes on when the power goes off? like via a UPS?
A vessel designed as a floating condominium..huge access doors and a presumption that a sailing vessel this size won't heel to a degree that water can ingress through open doors or hatches.
Sad as it is as a boatbuilder , I see this on many modern yachts these days.
Not a conspiracy theorist and mindful of things lost in translation but I found the use of the verb ‘hide’ a little odd. If I’m moving to the available air pockets in the yacht I’m moving to survive, not hide. I get the bodies were hidden amongst mattresses which makes total sense, maybe that’s it. Thanks for your informative videos.
Lost in translation.
I got similar vibe too..."hide"
Having listened to the press conference today it was stated that there was one member of the crew on deck keeping watch. The crew sleeping quarters would would be in the aft of the yacht with only a few feet to the exit hatch. The guest cabins would be forward of the saloon going up to the bow of the yacht making it far more difficult for the guests to exit the sinking yacht. Apparently bad weather conditions had been forecast and as a result non of the local fishing fleet was out. Also at the press conference today it was stated that yacht had been anchored in 30 meters of water though it came to rest in 50 meters of water, perhaps indicating a strong off shore wind. As I mentioned on your post yesterday the last thing you want to do in a severe storm is be at anchor as at best it will drag or more likely the bucking of the bow will snap the chain leaving the yacht liable to going side on to the prevailing wind with reduced ballast by virtue of the keel being raised. The further you get away from the shore and the deeper the water the waves become a swell and and a blue water yacht like this should have no issues at all. The sea never shows mercy and the dangers may be more apparent in the North Sea or the Bay of Biscay but weather can turn in the Med as well.
It was the opposite. Look at the vessel diagram. Crew quarters were forward. Guest cabins were toward the stern, aft of the crew quarters.
Crew were on deck securing cushions etc. It's why they survived. They were thrown into the sea when it rolled.
If the anchor and chain are sufficient and structure properly designed, it shouldn't have an issue at anchor. The guests (and owner) absolutely wouldn't want to be tossed about on a rough sea. Remember, as with the Kobe helicopter crash, the wealthy gives the orders and any peons who don't obey will be replaced with ones who will.
"Sir, we should put out to sea and ride out the storm in open water."
"No, the guests might become seasick. I won't have it!"
The thought of just going ashore to a nice hotel would've been dismissed because the very wealthy are also very cheap. Why spend money on nice, safe 5 diamond hotel rooms when they already spent the money on this unsinkable boat and it's perfectly safe in the harbor (according to the estimation of the completely unknowledgeable owner).
@@Texas240 Agreed that the moneyed people tend to overestimate the power of money, and therefore consider staying aboard safe enough in any circumstances. When you pay that kind of dough for a boat you probably imagine it unsinkable. That's not gonna change; the glitter of gold blinds people.
@@Texas240 Possibly...
And it wasn't even in harbor.
Crew quarters are always forward, because that is the least comfortable location due to pitching.
I worked as a chief stew for over a decade and I have to say a PA system would be very useful.
I always worked on MCA yachts so drills etc were done regularly, guests or no guests. The majority of guests wanted to see us do it as they felt safer.
Just found this channel and I love it. I do miss my yachtie days.
I have been in a couple of microbursts on land. Microbursts are a very scary situation, and I wouldn't ever want to be on a sailboat during one.
I experienced something very similar in Palm Springs, we were doing a craft festival and out of nowhere this most intense wind and rain hit the park. I have never experienced anything so wild, we were hanging on to anything heavy to not get knocked down. Many vendors lost all their craft-ware, glass, pottery, paintings etc.
It’s disingenuous to say that the storm wasn’t forecasted, when the CAPE index clearly showed air instability of over 4000 J/kg.
The wind forecast may have been 5kn but the CAPE was off the charts. For a professional captain, in charge of a vessel of that size, in the Med, in August, when this kind of weather event is common and not take that into account to make appropriate safety measures, is bizarre.
Downbursts have downed pretty large areas of forest. This may demonstrate their potential lateral wind force better than downed passenger jets. The forest is downed like it was downed by an explosion. Trees fall outwards from one point, except in the middle, where they can fall to all directions, as the down draft does not happen in one point, but a larger area. Outwards of the down draft the wind turns to all directions at it hits the ground.
A professional explanation of a very sensitive situation …excellent
Thank you for all the updates regarding this tragedy, I have been following your channel for several years now. You always give very clear explanations.
You look tired, please get some rest, or down time in one of your cars.
Thank you for your rational explanation through the eyes of someone who has worked on a yacht. Wild media speculation does not help the situation.
Having been on land in a microburst, I can tell you it was horrifying and it only lasted a few seconds. My whole neighborhood was nothing but down trees and tremendous house damage, just like a tornado.
I have been watching all of your reports regarding the Bayesian. Thank you so very much. You have given some very informative information about this tragedy.
I was hit twice by some kind of "wind event" while boating in Puerto Rico. One time we were anchored (bow and stern) while on a Bertram 45'. It was a beautiful day with clear blue skies and perfectly calm, crystal clear emerald waters when, all of a sudden, the water started churning and the anchor ropes went tight as a concert violin strings. We started the engines and released the anchor ropes into the water to get the boat away from nearby shallow reefs. After a few minutes everything when calm again and we returned to retrieve the anchors. When they say these events happen in seconds, they are not exaggerating. Scary stuff.
Life isn't safe. It only ends in one way. When you live, you have to learn to defend yourself from daily hazards. People new to a lifestyle, like yachting, have a steep learning curve. Knowing how to swim of course is number one. All guests should be educated on survival and equipment. This event happened really fast. The safety of the vessel needed to be traded for a life raft at a time it would've been difficult to convince unfamiliar, scared people to do so. Hiding in a cabin would be very enticing in comparison.
Reality gets particularly harsh in the high mountains and at sea. Those who dislike such inconveniences should simply stay put. Instead, they want both the adventure and safety, which is doable only in movies.
Especially if they believed that whatever the emergency was, it was unlikely to completely submerge the vessel.
It happened at 5am in the morning, they were sleeping in their beds, in the cabins, not hiding as you put it.
The crew are at fault, for not raising the alarm ahead of the storm, in order to get everyone on deck.
@@Atom-56harsh. The storm was likely not that severe before the localised burst.
@@PetarPopara
exactly
A thought (to be added to the current zillions).. Paraphrasing a widely held notion: "the most simple answer is most likely correct", applied here: 1. Her computed (by me) displacement to waterline value (using Statute's specs) is ~150- placing her at the expected "performance cruiser" category. 2. Her stated angle of positive stability is between ~77 and 88 degrees- in other words she would be expected to capsize at greater angles of heel- by design. 3. The "performance" design, which is not unusual nor radical, by today's standards, for a sailing yacht, results (obviously) in a high metacentric height, compared to heavier (slower) designs. The result is the likelihood that, as she heels, the lighter design will raise her windward side to increasing heights, above sea water, rather than submerging the leeward rail, further exposing the hull to weather-related heel- as reflected by her stability-angle spec. 4. The mast, exposed to winds likely outside of the overall design parameters, contributed to the heel in a first- order way, due both to its height and the massive drag, with an enormous effective lever arm, due to loads imparted high aloft. 5. She heeled to angles exceeding the 77 (keel up) stability limit. (Note: It may be unfair to judge this value- which would be considered too low for far smaller yacht's; it is widely accepted that a yacht's stability is related to her size as well- in other words exceeding a relatively low angle of positive stability requires greater environmental influence with increasing yacht "size"). 6. She down flooded- obviously, or she would be at the surface- capsized. 7. She encountered an overwhelming weather event- likely both highly localized and beyond comprehension. --PM
I am a pilot and I can tell you that downburst would have affected the other boat. They have a far greater footprint footprint than a tornado
The lady and one year old slept up too. There was no waterspout. But the lights went out without any automatic alarm or manual alarm.
Give me a break. Someone helped this boat to sink somehow. I think they used the pumps and turned off the alarms.
@@traciannveno Is it just me that read Mr Lynch`s business partner was also killed a day or so before this boat tragedy, when both were cleared In America of the fraud charges against them? I just don't know what to think about it all. A coincidence maybe but rather strange though.
@@traciannveno Stop being stupid.
O M G ..you need help with your fantasy thinking😂😂
Great point!
I have been in down burst on the road. It actually quite spectacular. It is like you are being hosed from above from pipe with unlimited diameter. Water do not just fall under force of gravity it is falling with additional acceleration of wind blowing downward. There are no waves like in regular havy rain. It is one hevy waive, non stop until it gets all water down. It falls down straight with force of hurricane. The only good thing it does not lasts long. Visibility 0 because it is straight wall of water. Wiper blades do nothing on maximum settings. I assume it is very rear, localized and hard to predict.
This was a huge yacht and capable of handling pretty much any weather if fully prepared. The vessel was at anchor close to shore and therefore at a low level of preparedness. Obviously there would be a watch to ensure the anchor didn’t drag and an engineer to keep an eye on the equipment keeping the lights on and the air conditioning running. When things started to go wrong, the crew’s duty would be to firstly ensure the VIP passengers were reassured and the vessel remained safe. When the yacht heeled over 90º, that was probably the first time that the guests had any idea that things were going wrong. Certainly the fact that all the casualties appear to have been in the guest accommodation lends credence to this sequence of events. Waterspouts dump extreme amounts of water and would certainly be capable of flooding the vessel if the rear doors were open as they may well have been if the crew were hurriedly moving chairs, cushions and tables from the deck areas into shelter. Once the vessel was laid over, water would also enter through the same opening and cause it to sink. The speed at which events unfolded seems to have caught everyone off guard and in reality I doubt that any fault or blame can be directed at any of the crew for what happened. Yes, with the benefit of hindsight, there were probably many things that could have been handled differently, but with luxury VIP cruises, everything is done to avoid inconveniencing the passengers and that is probably the most likely cause for the chain of events that occurred.
Hi But there is a report the boat was dragging its anchor for a number of minutes. My understanding the normal practice is start engines and head into the wind. I am sure there is more to come.
The sea is not for people who dislike being inconvenienced. There's only one law for everyone at sea: act prudently before you entirely lose the capacity to act. Natural elements disregard social privilege.
You must be kidding- 7 dead and nobody to blame??? This comment makes me so angry
Dullard.
There is no such thing as VIP passengers in an Emergency.
GET THEE TO HADES, NUMBSKULL.
crew is to blame here, whether it's criminal or not remains to be seen. thunderstorms are violent and unpredictable. it was already bad weather and it was known storm is coming, why crew didn't prepare the yacht and make sure doors are closed and monitor the situation. other close by boats weren't harmed and they were better positioned, this crew started to put cushions away already when it was bad... sure boat design had it's part to play with big mast but if keel was up then it's crew's fault, don't care if it makes noise or not...
Numerous sailing ships have been lost to microburst down drafts. Pride of Baltimore for one.
In 1988 on Baltic Sea I experienced two of them in the same time. It was very early morning, sea was flat completly, no air movement at all. Suddenly a little fresh breeze appeared like on your little pool and wind started to rise rapidly. We took sails down, locked ster wheel and hide inside the yacht. The two tornadoes were built-up up just in 10 minutes. I was young sailor for me it was hypnotising...two columns from boiling sea surface up to bottom of clouds in sky. I haven't seen something like that anymore.
Your source on what the divers found is interesting . Retracted 45 ton centre board due to risk of disturbing passengers sleep.
It's like the kobe helicopter crash. The wealthy person tells the minions what they want and will replace them if they don't obey. Wealth, apparently, equals experience, training, and skill (at least in the minds of the wealthy).
No one is going to spend 6-7 figures chartering a luxury yacht for a week if they can't sleep.
@@grondheroyou have to decide: Bad sleep in one night with an upcoming storm or risking your life.
@@volkerkonig9376 you have to decide: stay inside your home or go outside and risk your life.
Thank you for your knowledgeable information, retired j29 sailor, Grande-digue New Brunswick Canada,
8:55 a downburst knocked our big healthy tree down. We saw it fall. No other trees fell in our city. That was years ago but we never forgot it. It was so powerful and downward blowing. Weird
In BC Canada remote forest a microburst knocked a section of large conifers flat like matchsticks laying in one direction, a few hundred feet wide by a few hundreds yards long, with no damage whatsoever beyond that area. Definitely weird.
I still believe that the problem here was that the boat was lying at anchor with the lift keel up, The huge mast, fitted with roll reef sails was big and heavy, and there were communication domes fitted to the mast as well, adding to the weight (and unstability of the vessel) and the wind sensitivity of the mast structures. The crew was on deck, clearing away items to be stowed inside and preparing for the storm, therefore the doors and hatches were open. A sudden gust pushed the unstable ship on its side and it flooded. An open lazarette or tender "garage" would obviously have added to the disaster. I personally don't think the crew was negligent. They were surprised by the suddenness and severity of the storm, especially the "mini-tornado". The idea that the passangers should have been up, wearing their life vests and gathered at some kind of life boat station is ludicrous. The crews on these super yachts are always navigating between boat safety and running issues, and the comfort and desires of the owners and their guests. It makes operating these ships particularly demanding and difficult at times.
The Tender is often towed in Port Areas. A Yacht/Motor Yacht uses a tender to transfer to and from a Port Areas etc etc. A buoyant Tender (Air Filled/pressured) would break its attachment line quite easily. A buoyant tender would be found quite easily too, unless it was dragged out to sea.
A slim fit athletic person has a significantly greater chance of getting from A to B in a difficult situation. A trained Life Saver Scuba Snorkeler person would have a significant survivability advantage in a water event. The Crew Member actually said "we were thrown from the Yacht by an extreme event". That "WE" is very significant.
So a ketch (2 masts) was redesigned into a sloop with a single, presumably much taller, mast. That could be why the critical angle less than 90 degrees, even with the keel fully extended. I think the only sailing vessels out there with taller masts are Nigoni V and Mirabella V, and there can only be a handful with masts anywhere close to 70m tall, so combine the rarity of similar vessels, with the rarity of extreme wind events, and that storm put Bayesian in poorly charted territory. I think there are many lessons here for yacht designers, shipbuilders, and classification societies to learn.
It seems there is at least one more sailing yacht with a mast taller than Bayesian: Perseus 3.
100% agree. And it did seem the manufacturer was very VERY quickly jumping onto crew error. it may be partially correct if certain hatches/doors weren't secured, but the keel and mast seem to be pushing the limits to start with. both combined are likely the contributing factors rather than a single root cause.
Were stability tests done after the modifications? Have to agree, is the builder designer trying to pass the blame?
Ironically pedicting the probability of uncommon events is what Bayes theorem is about.
Wealthy customers get what they want, no matter how dangerous their whims might be.
I like how esysman sticks up for the crew and sailors
Laudable, but if doors were left open, who’s fault is it?
@@donaldvanvliet9039 Maybe they COULDN'T close the door due to the sudden, violent force of the micro-burst storm ?
They are the ones who have an accurate measure of the sea's power, and therefore the ones spared by the same. As though there were something akin to mutual recognition--the way it should be.
@@donaldvanvliet9039 one of his arguments is that crews are under staffed overworked and suffer fatigue which leads to errors . I agree with that .
Why not? It was an unexpected weather event.