The main reason I am about to subscribe is not because I am a “yachtie” but because the host is fair, intelligent, and doesn’t appear to have an agenda.
I’d say he is certainly a trusted reference, but I’m questioning the use/timing of the clip @4:24 which is not a clip of the subject vessel but it’s implied without explanation.
absolutely, very few new facts (more very brief and limited testimonies from crew members) and still so many unanswered questions. I don't understand how the testimony about the captain going to fetch mother and child is consistent with the mother's testimony; maybe we will have clearer view later, and maybe not. Was no one on the crew aware that such severe storms could happen in this particular area (it this to be specific to this place)? surely the captain who has mostly navigated in Med had some knowledge?
@juliettedonohue7069 Sounds like they were all in the dark and thrown in cold water - statement made was that the Captain helped save the baby & mother (Not "fetched")? Reports were the mother lost the baby in the water for a few seconds?
Thank you for your clear reporting on this tragedy. I don't need to read about this on any other media, you have spot-on reporting. From Cuttyhunk Island, Massachusetts, US.
I actually learned about the deckhands statement here about 8hrs ago from an Italian bloke in the comments of a previous post and have been waiting for confirmation. So yes, this is by far the best place to come for updates
@khriswildt5633 Dude, this is about accurate reporting from an outlet outside the United States of anarchy. We don't follow some nutcase who tells us what news to watch. We can decide for ourselves thanks.
@@JodyLSumrallhow interesting! I lived in and sailed the virgin islands for many years before moving to the mountains full time. Hence my interest as a former Captain. Have a nice rest of the weekend!
I think it was really gross that representatives of Italian Sea Group started blaming the crew a few days after the sinking and, on top of that, claiming that the just recently sunken vessel was unsinkable. Of course, there is still work to be done to determine if there is any responsibility from both parties -crew and builders- and to what extent. However, blaming the crew without any evidence was despicable.
It's not just despicable, it's suspicious. As if they knew something wasn't quite right with the design ( it's the only one in that series of sister ships with one single mast), and they quickly need a scapegoat to shift attention away from design flaws.
@@regig.9493 I can already list over half a dozen design flaws that led to the sinking: 1. The out-of-proportion mast. 2. The falling-open sliding lounge doors. 3. 45-degree maximum angle of heel (on a SAILBOAT???). 4. 80-degree maximum angle of recovery (on a SAILBOAT???). 5. Vents in the hull sides (WTF???). 6. A low cockpit opening to starboard where a normal sailboat has a raised combing. 7. A heavy moveable centerboard approved to be raised while motoring or at anchor, because it made a little noise when down. I'm sure I could think of a few more by now. The one interview with a motor yacht designer I saw elsewhere got one thing right: Bayesian wasn't really a sailboat.
@@angelikaopland7880 I've not spent that much time on ocean sailing boats to be by any means expert in anything, BUT, when those questions are laid-out and and I think about my basic experiences; This seems like a very vulnerable set of design factors.... not the makings of seaworthy craft, really!
@@regig.9493 "80-degree maximum angle of recovery (on a SAILBOAT???@ Yes quite a lot of people in the industry have thought that detail merits comment.
Thank you for this because frankly until the full report comes out you are the only person i trust in relation to anything relating to these type of boats
Excellent reporting, this is the only outlet that has been fair and impartial from the beginning of this tragedy. Hopefully this statement will help to reduced the potentially slanderous and defacing comments about the crew that have been so quick to flood the internet by people who don’t understand the marine industry.
Another possibility for the strange movement of the boat (according to the AIS data) was the anchor chain getting wrapped around the keel or rudder. This has happened to me during a sudden squall, and my boat was pinned sideways. Being pinned sideways in conditions like that would have been unrecoverable. In my case the squall spun me around and wrapped the keel, and then the current helped to keep me pinned. I was alone, at night, and worried about the chain's proximity to the prop if I tried to use the engine to rescue myself. Fortunately there was a TowboatUS station nearby, and they quickly dispatched a boat to help me. The towboat captain had no idea how to free me, so I guided him through the maneuver, and all was well. But the conditions I experienced were nothing compared to what hit Bayesian!
After reading your comment im wondering if the engine was started but the wind was blowing the yacht over the chain and it actually went round the prop and dragged the boat towards the anchor or at least held it in a side n position where the wind was able yo blow it flat and then it couldnt right itself because the chain was wrapped tight around the prop and holding it in that degree of position from sideways under the yacht, if you can understand what i am saying. I know i had an anchor chain round my prop once and in strong wind its so scarey and you cant move
I believe the anchor was a big issue for them also, based on the AIS tracking. May have even pinned them "stern to" the waves if chain was wrapped around the prop.
@@toniking8386 Yes i think the anchor could have had something to do with it. If the chain was under the boat round prop and the wind was blowing side on it would be like being pinned flat to the sea and would happen very quickly. Be interesting to see what is found out. None of the fivers mentioned the anchor or where it was.
That's what people don't understand is especially if you're down below in the cabin it will be pitch dark and your door will not be where it's supposed to especially if you were awoken by being tossed out of the bed because you went sideways. Unless you have something that you can use to reach the doorway you're not going to be able to get out
@@wisdomsleuth77777Not only that but I would imagine being tossed out of bed on a yacht like this would result in a person landing hard against cabinetry, causing at least minor injury and further disorienting them.
@@wisdomsleuth77777 Are there not emergency lighting in vessels like this? It seems like as soon as the main power went out that emergency lighting should have kicked on.
I raced sailboat/yachts quite a bit over a ~30 year period. I've had the mast in the water in way too many times to remember. Including while racing ~20,000nm in the ocean. The "scariest incident" was being pinned down w/the storm spinnaker,( hoisted on a ~30 M mast) filling w/water about 1,000nm from any land. This was on a racing -yacht, Kialoa II, designed for the ocean w/3-4 pretty, to just 3-5 "average" experienced amateur crew. A couple of the other less to almost no experienced crew got so spooked they were not helpful in the situation at all. Others, were initially "stunned" but recovered in a minute or so. While this situation wasn't exactly "trained for", it was "expected" and somewhat planned for. We were more prepared than the guests, owners, some of the crew of the Bayesian and some still panicked.
@@mrl22222 some of the large catamaran’s I have toured had a port below knee level, in the water, designed to be opened in the event of a “turtle”. I am wondering, did you have one? If so, was it useful?
Thank you for your calm, knowledgeable, informative recaps of available info. A couple of thoughts ... -Ais, if it is not receiving heading info could have 'guessed' that the yacht was pointed the direction it was traveling when it was dragging anchor and turned the icon incorrectly. Boats tend to remain pointed into the wind when dragging back or lay perpendicular. -The skipper is always responsible for everything that happens on their boat. -If dragging in 20-30 knots, the yacht probably was not anchored properly. Not seeing a proper backdown on the graphic. A microburst would not last long enough to drag that far. -It was peak season for waterspouts and associated extreme wind bursts. This season has had the hottest water recorded. It was stormy weather. The skipper knew all this and that the odds of a knockdown were relatively high. -If the bulkheads were open (the only way to sink this boat) in these conditions, the skipper is liable. -Taking the 5th. Refusing to comment to authorities doesn't look good for the skipper. Hopefully he is cooperating with the investigation that will help MCA and others responsible for this boat design, to improve. -Venting. I have skippered some smaller yachts and ships to 110'. I have never seen an open vent to the engine room as proposed. Aircon is cooled by the seawater of course. Engineroom blowers run air through large hoses or ducts, I don't see how they could allow a sinking amount of water in. -Bulkheads. I keep coming back to this as the only way to sink this yacht.
I don’t have any nautical experience, but I do have many years of experience reporting on big breaking news stories as a journalist. I appreciate your thorough reporting, and also the great care you are taking to verify facts and urge caution about jumping to conclusions. Credibility is everything, which I’m sure you know. People may quibble over your choices, but your sincere efforts to be fair is undeniable as far as I’m concerned. Your work will help make the industry safer and better for yachting and also the local communities that have relied on these ports for many centuries.
I'm not a sailor of any kind, the sea isn't a place for me but I find your channel very informative and enjoy, very much seeing the thing that terrifies me.
Love the channel. As the proud owner / captain of a jenneau 1095f, it makes me smile when you refer to this yacht as small. However I try and apply the concepts and lessons you describe on this channel for larger ships, and feel it makes me a better and safer small yacht captain for my family as many of these considerations are not typically shared with or covered in the limited training provided to small private yacht owners. Thank you.
I do recommend the Nexus report (on TH-cam) to everyone. It was a very good summary of known facts thus far. Thanks too for your top-notch reporting. I look forward to very new report.
I lived through a microburst on the water in the day time. It just look like a normal rain shower in the summer. I just happen to be close to land where the wind was all of a sudden blowing over a 100 mph. It was crazy in just a few seconds I do not remember how many minutes it lasted, but it was extremely intense and a few boats where turned over that day.
17 years back. Saw what looked like thunder clouds rolling coming up the harbour. Increased gusting winds...started motor, headed for shelter off point of land. Dropped main and tied it down, furled jib while motoring for shelter. Getting closer, lots of wind on nose. Threw off anchor in 18 feet and she blew back with 150 feet out in seconds. Felt anchor grab and hold. Kept engine running and wind and driving rain came. Rain was hitting me so hard had to check it wasn't hail. Took cover under Dodger as it increased. A seagull was perched on the transom and we just looked at each other. It passed in mere minutes...the sea gull left and I put my mainsail cover on, recovered my anchor and motored 10 minutes back to the club. I was that close to the club but those tumbling black clouds looked so ominous that I got everything down and dropped the anchor. I know of one ther boat that was out in it and they too dropped sail. They had a harder time of it but were OK . Visibility was very limited once it hit. I did note trees blown down, not one or two, whole sections of trees blown over. I was headed back to the club anyway because I thought a thunderstorm was coming but had never experienced anything like that on land or on the water.
I experienced a downdraft. It was instant. There was some wind and rain, but then in a few seconds the trees were all pushed over onto my house. If my house had been this ship, it would have been turned on its side just as quickly. I personally am not inclined to blame anyone. Some forces of nature you just can’t fight in the moment.
You have given very unbiased coverage of this event. However, I wish when YT channels show the footage that you show at 4:26, it is clarified that this is not the Bayesian!
Some TH-cam channels show whatever images they like & only accidently show whatever their AI narrator is talking about now & then. Some seem to get EVERYTHING wrong.
@@cindycreateforlifei know that, but many people wouldn’t know this so a disclaimer would be appropriate to clarify the fact that it’s a different vessel.
Thanks for striving to stay with validated facts and avoid speculation. As with aircraft accidents, we all only learn from proven / validated facts. Only learnings based on those facts will lead to more safety in the future. No finger pointing, no blame game.
@eSysmanTech, from another Mersysider (I'm from Southport), thank you for an excellent channel with nonbiased, clear and salient commentary and information.
Thanks for the update and knowledgeable explanations. Ii hope the many blaming the crew with no information are watching as information comes out. Good questions that I hope those investigating are asking. Looking for your next update.
I, like others I read here, only source yachting news from your channel, because it is succinct, balanced and professional in every way. How I wish big network news services did the same! Cheers from Australia🐨
Although I'm a rower and as a former DA into Bayesian probabilistic reasoning and air crash investigation the way you handle this topic is spot on. You give the trial by media a positive twist. Keeping it simply taking all data into evidence including well founded opinions of experts and critically giving that a rigourous scrutiny as well. I'm also convinced that you are a type to change in review a stated position as wrong when new data taken into evidence points to that. Excellent job!
The biggest thing I think that people don't realize is when you're turned sideways your door is completely unreachable depending on the circumstances and you're trying to do it in the pitch dark
Maritime ships will never be land resorts, and shouldn’t be designed to look like a land resort. Every vessel on the sea (or inland waters) needs to be rigged for rough weather. That means no sliding glass doors, but instead small portholes. It means no loose furniture, but instead fixed furniture, handholds everywhere. I’ve been at sea in 55 knots wind in Sea of Cortez with breaking seas washing across the deck. Been dismasted 300 miles off San Diego, and lost rudder on a 84’ ‘maxi’ sail boat 80 miles off Baja Calif. The sea will find every weakness in a boat and crew, and tear everything apart. I’ve seen it.
Thank you, me too! The tragic in this whole situation is that these days people wanting to buy a vessel come along with the idea that modern technology solves all problems of the past and one can happily step on a boat to sail anywhere. Please don't ask me to tell anything about the sailors coming through the place I'm re-building my ship for the last years but much of it is shocking to put it carefully. Manufacturers have caught up on this trend. They are more than happy that the amount of "proper" sailors asking questions they do not enjoy to answer has been mainly replaced by people who don't know any better. Suddenly more and more silly designs popped up. In the small scale and the large scale including "super-yachts". And most of it focussing on entertaining people. I haven't got a clue where this is leading to and if there might be a wakeup call one day. It is sad. For the people who lost their loved ones and friends. But, the sea knows no mercy. Even going out with proper boats there is no guarantee. Nature is stronger.
Good list of questions! Yes, I hope they all get answered. Thank you for this update! Fascinating testimony from the crew member. I was struck by his saying that the vessel had capsized yet he and the captain had enough time to climb the hull and attempt to rescue others. That suggests that the sinking was not immediate, and that water intrusion occurred after the capsize and did not directly cause the capsize. The wind knocked the vessel over, then water began to get in via various openings. That is what I surmise anyway from what the information provided. I hope you continue to provide more testimony as it is reported.
Also there was insufficient emergency signage so that the six passengers could escape timeously through the narrow staircase to the upper deck and to relative safety? There should also have been emergency lighting and warning alarms in the VIP cabins!
This channel is top notch and provides insight not generally available thru the mainstream media. Ditto What's going on with shipping TH-cam channel for ships
I think you are totally correct with your deductions of anchor wrap around the keel Davidhoy and I dont understand why this possibility has not been bought up by the "?experts" before now. I experienced that very scenario on a 40ft sailing cat when tide pushed the boat up on the anchor, the boat rotated and caught the rope around one of the centre boards that had been left partially down. Being a cat she still sat flat on the water but sideways on to the flow of the outgoing tide. If Bayesian was connected to the anchor from the bow as normal it would have streamed away from the anchor when the wind first came in and would have rotated with the wind direction as that changed. Even if the boat was hit by a strong side blast it would have still moved in the direction of the wind and would have self righted (according to the builders) as the wind passed. As anyone who has spent any serious time at sea on yachts would know, when at anchor boats move to the wind and also to the current or tide. It is not uncommon to see boats riding up on their anchor as the weight of the chain overcomes the weight of the boat, or the tide changes and pushes the boat towards the anchor, leaving slack in the chain or anchor rope which is then hanging directly down from the bow. I believe the boat was originally anchored in 30M of water, so she should have had at minimum 150M of chain or rope out. With that as a probability, it is easy to see how an incoming storm could cause the boat to rotate to the changing wind angle while at the same time being pushed over the slack chain or rope allowing it to wrap around the keel or rudder or props. Once she is tethered mid ships and comes up hard on the anchor then the wind hits her side on and she has to list to the wind, which is probably what happened as the crew say she went over to 20 degrees and then over to 45 degrees. The crew would have been totally confused trying to understand what was happening. The evidence will be lying on the sea bed and should have been documented by now so we have to wait to see if that evidence is released to the public or held by the insurers or salvers.
I understand the woman and her child were were out on the deck, which is why they survived. She can presumably speak to what role the captain played in saving them.
Something I keep thinking about also is that as soon as that boat went on it's side, it would have gone dark. If you are on an unfamiliar boat and now it's on it's side making it more confusing now it's dark and you are blind. Pretty scary.
Although all luxury yachts must have emergency lighting lighting up the cabins and the emergency exits and this emergency lighting comes on automatically and lasts 3-8hours?
Plus, there is the possibility the mattress from the bed was tossed onto the door to the room. You would be standing on something which is blocking the exit.
My sympathy's for the Crew and survives that will carry this nightmare with them for ever. What really making me angry, is the efforts of a rep for the boat manufacturer, pointing at the crew and away from the boat design. There was no reason for the crew to do anything different than what they did with the forecast given for a "20 knot breeze". Let's get real. This boat should have been able to handle a 20 knot breeze, but it was a freak storm. The crew is being slandered by assumptions to protect the interests of everyone else. The Captain and crew are hero's doing what they could to save lives in such a short moment.
That's corporate culture--the 'company first' mentality. Business and the protection of life at sea (or elsewhere, for that matter) often are at odds with each other.
A 20 knot wind is nothing to worry about in a boat of this size. Asking the crew to keeping cushions etc from blowing overboard would be a very reasonable course of action for the crew. The boat was blown over by the laws of physics. The formula for energy is E=1/2mv2, m is the mass of the moving air, v is the velocity of the wind. The wind energy increases exponentially in proportion to the velocity squared. An 80 knot wind is 4x the velocity of a 20 knot wind, but the wind energy applied against the mast and hull is 16x greater, a huge difference.
Now run this calculation with the assumption that the air mass holds a high volume of water, is now more dense & thus packs more punch per knot of wind speed. There are more variables, I suspect, than the manufacturer wants to pay engineers to recalculate for. Same goes for the revised mast height on Bayesian vs. the designed ketch rig...or what happens when a hull this size is rotated at high speed to near it's designed maximum list angle. It's not going to stop spinning before the mast hits the water, no matter what the math claims.
I was on the island of Corsica in October 2003 and in beautiful cloudless weather, from the top of a cliff I observed the calm wind rise to 75 knots in a few minutes. The sea had turned white because the water was flying into the air. It was impossible to stand up. I have never observed this unpredictable phenomenon with the Atlantic Ocean. For me the Mediterranean is an unpredictable sea, especially after August 15 when the water temperature is very warm. As a French sailor, wanting to sleep on a boat at anchor outside a secure port in the Mediterranean is a very big risk, a lack of awareness or a lack of knowledge of this sea in particular. In France we have an expression for this type of known phenomenon: "a Mistral blow" !
@@angelikaopland7880 No disagreement, just a note. Water vapor is less dense than dry air, but you are probably correct in that the actual water in the air probably adds to the mass hitting the superstructure.
AIS: As an electrician, I have some questions that may be answered by people working in GB: - In smaller vessels the AIS is FORBIDDEN to use signals from the normal navigation equipment. It has it's own GPS and with this it calculates every other datum. So the heading of the boat is not reliable if it is only moving slowly. This might explain the data from Marinetraffic due to a slowly dragging anchor. - if the AIS may take compass or other data from the navigation system may depend on the regulations for that ship size and flag state.
@sventhormodpetersen1752 I'm only familiar with small vessels. - AIS shall not take the position from navigation bus - it has to have it's OWN GPS. - the AIS is NOT ALLOWED to announce it's position to navigation bus Can ask a friend if he would run AIS over night but nav not - interesting how the readings on marinetraffic will be
Excellent list of questions, hopefully the answer come soon. Interesting account from the deckhand, that adds to the sinking information. The captain rescued a mother and child which is good news. The story that is coming slowly to us is at least factual and doesn't discriminate against the crew. Excellent research by you and the team, thank uou.
Hello, Thank you Sysman for this update on this very unfortunate shipwreck. I was really depressed by this tragedy. I wish you a good rest of the week. .
I have seen a lot of unreliable articles online saying the blackbox of the bayesian was found giving the last 16 mins of what happened on the vessel - but then reading the article it didn't give confirmation or evidence and was just a lot of air without saying anything of sustance - so I am glad you are doing updates with reliable sources - thank you
As with air crashes, it is usually a chain of events that results in the tragedy... same here... there are a whole lot of questions still to be asked and answered,. and it will take time to ascertain all the information to accurately report the cause of this yacht sinking.
This is the best channel for following this horrific story. Thanks for keeping it going. Seeing this particular post for the first time at 2100 of Sept. 3 (Newport, RI USA). AIS isn’t ‘smart’ enough to point the bow in the right direction. It’s only one point on the boat. It will interpret the bow pointing forward in the direction the boat is travelling - which would speak to the anchor dragging. (Whereas the nearby boat had its engine running and was in gear perhaps.) Not sure why there would be a gyroscope on board.
... or their actions created this tragic situation. Don't make conclusions without knowing all the facts. The Kegworth air disaster should have thought us some lessons that can be applied to the sea as well.
The Captain saving the mother and girl ! I would really like to stick this in the face of some people that are blaming the captain and crew. I have 50 years in yachting, this could have happened to I think any professional or amateur captain out there no matter how experienced and cautious. A 20-27 knot forecast is nothing that would have caused any concern about a catastrophic weather event. This was a freak event. If any finger pointing it should be of a design with 45 degree down flooding angle and board up VS angle of 78 degrees that is terrible for any sailing yacht or any yacht really in my experienced opinion.
It's a miracle that anyone who was below deck made it up and survived. The woman survivor and her small child may have been in the cabin closest to an exit.
Thanks for your outstanding work covering the tragic sinking of the Bayesian. It's great that you hold off any judgements while the evidence is incomplete and unclear. And don't jump to conclusions about who may - or may not - be at fault. It may well turn out that we'll end up seeing this as a yacht crew that saved 15 of the guests rather than lost 7. We should wait for the full picture to emerge. Speaking as an engineer, I don't think I'd have wanted to design a boat where things like stability are pushed so close to the margins.
the firefighters reported in newspaper interviews that when they went down to the depths they found the anchor attached to the ship and the doors of the saloon were closed they found that on the seabed there are signs of the anchor being dragged.
Finally more details and actual relevant facts, rather than speculation. High compliments to The Yacht Report. Notably, just about the very first completely unfounded speculation came from Mr. Constantino, of the company that owns Perini Navi, who instantly branded himself as an unreliable source for anything at all by pronouncing a vessel that had just sunk as "unsinkable" (or equivalent verbiage) if X or Y were the case - circumstances about which he could not possibly have any knowledge at that point. Just those hasty comments alone make one suspicious of the seaworthiness of the boat design or construction under very rare extreme conditions. Certainly we ought to remain open to evaluate what really happened based on more facts and witness statements, and I have no doubt we'll see those compiled here.
This is what I've been saying since it happened people don't understand that your door is completely in a different place could be unreachable especially if you're trying to deal with it in the dark I don't think anybody accounts for that in the General Public
It's curious how so many You tubers, many of whom have probably never even seen a sailing yacht let alone been on one, seem to know so much more than the technical and naval experts.
Giovanni Costantino is trying desperately to avoid ANY hint of blame, throwing the crew under the nearest bus. If I had the money to buy a yacht like that it wouldnt be one of his. The crew is not able to speak publicly for legal reasons, and he should shut his mouth too. No respect for the dead, just divert the blame.
Giovanni Costantino's company build a yacht that overwhelmed the crew. On the other hand, the crew did non understand the severity of the situation. Who will go out on deck to collect pillows and flowers if they knew that the storm was endangering their ship.
I have at sea for most of my life I started at six years old and finished with last ship 7 years ago a three hundred tonne marine research ship built in Japan. I have been thru or experienced 5 cyclones two as a young fisherman in my late teens and three others in the last 10 years. The last in March 2017 which I lost my ship when the eye of a cyclone with 311km wind went over top her and put her on the beach . Let me say this over the years I have learnt in many cases the hard way, that proper preparation is the key to safety at sea. There is only one way that you can be prepared properly and that is if you have advanced warning. It’s becoming clearer every day that the captain and crew acted in accordance with their responsibility. It’s impossible to prepare for a severe weather event if it comes out of nowhere. Don’t let me hear comparisons with the vessel nearby it is a totally different equation . This was an unusual unexpected event that was not forecast. The crew are hero’s for saving the lives of so many in very adverse conditions. Unless you have been there you do not have any idea related to how tough it is to survive. Can’t talk can’t hear and sometimes can’t even see.
Excellent and informative presentation. This investigation has a long way to go yet but I guess an underwater survey will help. For the sea state to build significantly depends on the wind-speed, the fetch of the wind and the length of time it blows.
Sea state wasn't a factor. Bayesian was simply swatted down by a heavy burst of wind, laid on her side & filled with water. Something you could duplicate with a toy boat in a bathtub...but a "pond yacht" with adequate ballast would settle to the bottom upright. Bayesian went down without righting & is still on her side.
In my mind the everybody was doing they're own routines as they do in light wind/weather. Noone expected the boat to capsize so ofcourse someone forgot to lock the huge sliding doors or close the side door. On the other hand I dont think the vents on the side of the hull are big enough to let in enough water mere seconds before the boat would self right. Behinds the inlets there are probably ducts that will restrict the amount of water gushing in. The huge double door would have let in swimming pool amounts of water every second and you would not be able to come out from a cabin and swim towards such a explosive river of water filling the boat. If the huge doors where closed the passengers would have had time to crawl out. Those doors are a death trap and the crew should have been given training to always seal the main door shut at different operating situations. Since the deck hand didnt talk about the doors this was obviously not part of his training.
If doors would have been locked, most guests wouldn't have know how to get out - back to emergency drills. I would think the main access they used would be their first thought. The door problem should have been corrected as it's been a known problem for some time.
You can't lock the doors like that, then nobody could get in and out and guests and crew would have been stuck inside. Without actually locking them shut they would open by themselves.
As a chief Engineer working on yachts over many years I never saw the owners or guests ever Participate in any kind of safety drills what so ever. The sentiment amongs most is that the crew are there to keep them safe and show them what to do if need be.
Everything is panning out as expected...vessel was not in immediate danger, then they got smacked by the unexpected, and unpredictable microburst. The fact they were able to get back on board and rescue some passengers is is indicating ,that perhaps the boat didn't sink as fast as we thought. I imagine that If, they were walking on the walls, any doorways along the boats centerline, may well have been out of reach...both to them and passengers trapped below.
@@testboga5991yes the rapidity of the sinking is the big issue from what I can gather from other commentators. A boat like this should be able to be in this position and not sink rapidly. I can picture crew remaining relatively calm as they couldn't imagine it actually sinking.
@dianamincher6479 preparing for what? The weather Forcast was minor for this size of vessel. Easily withstood...until very suddenly it couldn't be . Preparing for a major storm would turn the boat into something resembling a submarine. Not what you want for the passengers on a luxury yacht at anchor...in fact if the weather was Forcast to be truly severe, the passengers would more than likely have been sent ashore.
The lady with the infant were already on the deck (as per her own statement) when the boat heeled and they fell into the water. Why isn't everyone interviewed? The picture would get more complete and clear.
Subbed in appreciation of your reporting .... and leaving out the water temp GW mentioned by that professor in the full interview you clipped from ... ex NZ Comm Fisherman here.
Here's a weird one that is pertinent: My brother, a former USCG SAR Officer, and I were discussing this tragedy and the unlikelihood of a cyclone or downburst exactly hitting any boat. Astonishingly, he said his first ever SAR incident was exactly that!: A fishing boat with Vietnamese crew had been directly hit by a cyclone. Wow! The report that Captain and crew of the Bayesian crawled back onto the boat to rescue guests would be nothing short of heroism. Should that be confirmed by the investigation, perhaps these traumatized professionals could be recognized formally and publicly with some sort of civilian commendation for fulfilling their duties in the worst of situations (walking on the walls!) The huge balls award perhaps.
yeah, crawled back on to a boat during a downburst? There was no downburst, the water was a bit choppy thats all. Anyway, their efforts will be recognised formally, they are going to jail.
@@LiveFromLondon2 "There was no downburst". Says a man who has never worked at sea and was 1000 miles from the incident. Your grandmother would be very unhappy with you.
@@dianamincher6479 The predicted worse was not too alarming. What is alarming is the 45 degree down-flood angle. That is motor yacht territory and I would think ridiculous for anything sprouting a record height mast and of such high windage and momentum. Note that during a heavy deluge water can work its way into the bilge and reduce that angle and furthermore destabilize the ship and reduce self-righting angle. Perhaps the only thing that could have saved that ship is cutter charges that could be fired to sever the mast and prevent its leverage from maintaining a capsize. PS: I would like to know if and when any bilge alarms went off or if automatic bilge pumps had started to ascertain to likelihood of any destabilization.
I think the plotter gets a positive speed value and draws the ship icon in the direction of its movement. It doesnt know the ship is moving backward. For that you need 2 or more (differential) gps antennes.
Not sure what system this vessel had, but on AIS one can often see ship bow and stern indicated, even while tied up in harbor. Some ships are only a dot, most are a triangle when underway and larger ones indicate both size and bow.
@@helmshardover could be gps error. When you are stationary you can sometimes notice the icon for your own vessel pointing in different directions. That's gps (lack of) precision being interpreted as an actual heading. Or maybe it's sending gyro compass heading to the AIS system instead of relying on heading calculated from gps.
At 68 I worked on tugboats for most of my life and this is probably the strangest incident I have ever seen. Having had a while to digest the news on it I have to conclude that the design of the hull to be the main factor. I'm very sure that had the retractable keel been in the down position it wouldn't have capsized. You can check out an eerily similar incident 125 years ago Google the wreck of the sailing ship Andelana in tacoma Washington in 1899. It was a very modern vessel for the time.
There is a video of baylesian being retrofitted with the tallest mast ever built at the time. It was not of the original design. It was much taller & heavier. The vid is a few years old. They are bragging about the height of the mast & the challenge of the installation. One could easily imagine that extra height & weight taking on more wind... & with the keel elevated at all, with waves... I think it will be concluded that this retrofit mast was at least partially to blame.
Several days ago, the prosecutor said he already had enough information to prosecute two of the crew members. He is not waiting for the investigation to conclude. This is Italian justice. Seriously.
My questions: 1 What was CAPE factor in weather forecast for that night ? ( This factor shows possibility of violent weather events , storms, down-burst etc ) 2 Why yacht was not prepared for big wind during night ? ( taking cushions and other things inside in the evening etc ) crew were doing that way to late , making themselves busy instead of saving boat and passengers ) 4 Why nobody look at radar ???? In the night you cannot see cumulonimbus approaching ( with high possibility of violent winds , downburst ) , but it is visible on radar in night time . 5 How it happened , that no other yacht or fishing boat was damaged or sink , but only this one ?? Others have been informed and prepared ? 6 Where huge amount of water come in ??? ( to sink this ship ) Air intakes for engine, gen are small and usually siphoned . My guess is transom lazaret door with tender attached to it . This kind of weather cannot sink this size of yacht if captain and crew know , what are they doing. ( preparing and protecting passengers and ship instead of cushions ) I have experienced this kind of weather almost exactly in this same place . Like 5-6 NM , NE of Palermo. By few minutes from below cumulonimbus wind blows ( gusts ) 73 knots. It was scary , yacht was heeling about 30 degrees , It was some water ( from horizontal rain ) , but no damage . We just put sails down , close hatches, start engine and throw cushions inside lastly . It was on 72 ft sloop , like 10 years ago , but during the day , so cumulonimbus was visible and I ( captain ) was aware of possible danger . We just motor mostly stern to wind thru this . All event ( gusts ) lasted about 3 minutes.
The fact that all the survivors in this rapidly changing chain of events includes all the Crew kinda confirms that if you value your life you shouldn't really go near the Sea if you can't Crew a Vessel in any way shape or form Now unfortunately the passengers thought they were staying in a Boutique hotel on land with a Sea view In truth they were sleeping above 50 meters of water with just the skin of the Hull between them and the Seabed I've been on the North Sea for over 20 years now and there's nothing Glamorous about it whatsoever and many times through tiredness and fatigue the Sea could have easily taken me if she wanted to. I can't see how the Captain/Crew could be liable for a freak weather system in this instance tbh?
Combine that with the last video on no safety training of guests and small signs and hidden safety features for aesthetics and sleep deprivation of the crew. Not good.
The most lethal cabins were the VIP ones as the VIPs had to negotiate a narrow staircase to the upper deck to safety and they couldn't manage this timeously! Angela Bacares acted on instinct and rushed up the narrow staircase to safety just in time? She must have appreciated the lethality of the position of the VIP cabins in the hull! Pity she didn't raise the alarm?
I am trying to visualise how there can be "nothing glamorous" about being an owner or passenger on a 50 meter superyacht. Nope, I am failing. BTW I am now into my 20th year living aboard and covered 50,000nm.
Has anyone talked to Dick Beaumont - Founder Of Kraken Yachts? I remember him talking about safety safety safety! And about the keel and about how things can go wrong and about instability in the keel (a few had it snap off and it kills instantly trapping sailors inside) anyway - I would LOVE to know his take on this - he said he would never put his family on a boat that wasn’t safe and about things being safe above all else - Garcia yachts also have water tight doors going down the hatch - one man spoke about the boat doing a full 360 in the boat and saying he had never been happier to have those doors - any feedback from builders like this?
Thanks for the update. As is the case in all marine disasters, there are lessons to be learned. The previous owner of my sailboat got hit with a microburst while under sail and it caused the boat to broach and then pull some of the standing rigging loose from the deck, so these types of winds can and do happen. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
Educated guess: - in a regular old rainstorm a few of the crew went out on deck to clean things up - the wind abruptly picked up due to a microburst - the anchor started dragging and the boat turned broadside to both wind and waves - because the keel was up and the mast unusually tall the boat unexpectedly heeled way over - those on deck slid overboard - large external doors and vents were still open and she took on water very fast - the crew eventually climbed back on board to rescue passengers but there was too little time to go below deck, sadly
The keel being up is being made into too much of talking point. The ballast required by the design is supposed to be enough for stability with the keel UP. It is designed for stability with keel up except while under sail. Not down at anchor or while motoring.
@@fabioprimaio8503 Mr. Holland did not design the rig on Bayesian, he designed this yacht as a ketch. A couple of motor yacht "experts" on another channel didn't even touch on the mast height, which I as a sailor view as a major contributing factor in this tragedy.
I'd like to add some context. Perini Navi are built in Viareggio, Italy. This port has difficult access and tends to silt. Their shipyards are accessible passing through the marina and then a canaI. I visited the Perini Shipyards in 2008 and saw a 56M under construction. Noting the relatively shoal draft (keel up), I asked about it and was told that (at least at the time) there was an issue with dredging the entrance of the marina and sometimes Perinis couldn't enter or exit. Therefore, it seems to me that they made the shoal draft for the purpose of being able to take the boats in and out. An extra meter of draft, with 100 tons of lead down there, would have made a great difference in righting arm.
20 knots of wind is unremarkable, and no reason to wake up any guests. The boat listing notably with no sails set at 20 knots of wind is alarming. Constantino is partial, and not an independent expert.
The size of the mast has to be the contributing/ culminating factor! Possible Scenario…. - Crew kept up late by guests, don’t have time to pack away the cushions etc. as they have early start; all go to bed except deck hand who stays on watch. - Winds increase quickly in the early hours. - The downburst/waterspout hits the vessel violently , causing it to drag anchor, simultaneously causing her to suddenly (but easily) broach, with the aid of the oversized mast and the keel being in a raised position. - A regular yacht would pop back up after the surge or gust had passed. - But due to the height and weight of the mast as well as the reduced ballast, mean she tips 90+ degrees, which means she’s taking on water so quickly, it wouldn’t matter if any doors were opened or closed. Tragic accident - there is nothing anyone could do from there except abandon ship.
yeah that about sums it up, its avs was less than almost any vessel i could research including a carrier, a 45 ft sail boat, a frigate, a cruise ship, you name it, it was the only ship i could find that didnt have an avs for between 110 and 140 degrees, excluding container ships
@@msromike123 I've said in previous threads that the real sailors of the Age of Sail had better equipment than Bayesian. Or...was that "frigate" a guided missile frigate? Either way, going to sea in a tippy, over canvassed mega-sailboat with a tiny crew outnumbered by leisure guests is just nuts.
another video of that night is about to come out from another position is of a shipyard nearby that has the cam on that part of the sea. the video is already in the hands of the authorities
@@TerryKeever several Italian streamers are waiting for that video. there has been a lot of talk these days about this other video. about a lady who wakes up at 3 in the morning because she has this shipyard that looks right at that point of the sea.
It is going to be easy to apportion blame in hindsight. However the crew were doubtless responding to something that they have attended to many times before, i.e. a strong wind at anchor. However, on this occasion the boat, without warning, gets knocked down by a very strong downburst. It was dark, this could not have been expected or anticipated and to say you should of woken the guests and got them into lifejackets and on deck, whilst with hindsight is actually correct, in the real world couldn't happen because you would be getting them up every other night for no reason whatsoever. This is a very rare event and it should be appreciated as such. No one would have been prepared for what happened so quickly. Everyone on deck would have been thrown into the water or left clinging on to something that used to be upright. Once the boat goes beyond her maximum point of heel she will lay on her side, is never coming up and the only way is down. If you are thrown in the water you aren't going to be able to get back aboard and even if you could cling to something and get back aboard you would not be able to navigate the inside of the vessel to rescue anyone in the few minutes available. There would be very little chance of anyone trapped below escaping. If you think about the Costa Concordia incident, she sat on the bottom at a few degrees of heel and pretty much everyone got off. If she had been in deeper water she would have rolled over and thousands would have been trapped below. The question here can only be one of design of this sort of vessel and the rules, and indeed compromises, that RINA allow the boatbuilders to work under. Do not loose sight of the fact that every boat design is a compromise in one way or another. Thank you for your unbiased insight into this tragic accident, quite a few of the other reports I have seen spout uninformed conclusions.
The biggest problem is you need to be able to get to the door that is now your ceiling and if there is 12 ft and it's absolute Pitch Black and that's if something heavy didn't land on you
The sea was 30C and a storm is forecast -it could be brutal- for the guests' be fully prepared. Get them through that narrow staircase and onto the upper deck pronto! And regardless of their VIP status!
Except that your version of events is not what happened. There was no downurst, there was no knockdown. A storm was predicted , the fishermen stayed in harbour. As for Concordia, what level of stupid are you? If it was in deeper water it would not have crashed into the rocks. You are one thick bot.
@@boatbloke6701 yeah just take a look at the door that you're sitting across from in the room and then imagine that being on your ceiling could you reach it and I don't think any of these prosecutors even thought about something like that you just have to conceptualize it
I’ve been a ships captain for 30 years, many on super yachts, and have commanded Pereni Navi yachts during my career. It is a miracle that so many people survived this freak weather incident. In time, the crew will be honoured for their actions - provided the Italian investigators decide to treat this fairly, and not just side with the Italian yacht builder.
If the yacht design is at fault, how did they get British Marine to insured and flying a British flag means it had been certified by the British Navy? Not seaworthy and yet insured by British Marine . Wanker
@@gha9543I'd just like to say I wasn't entirely convinced about your argument at first, but when I got to the end and discovered your final masterstroke, namely calling the OP a w4nker, I realised that you must be right. Thanks for helping me to understand the truth. Tw4t.
Your comment appears quite biased. Investigators are approaching the situation with a systematic and evidence-based methodology. They are focusing on whether the captain and crew took all the necessary safety precautions to prevent this tragedy. One key question is why all the crew members survived, while six guests and the chef tragically lost their lives. It seems likely that the water entered from somewhere, otherwise, a boat like this wouldn’t have sunk so quickly. Divers who carried out underwater inspections of the boat reported that the hatch was open. The strong wind arrived at 3.50am. Up until that moment, the Bayesian was still anchored. From 3.50 to 4.03, the ship moved as it was dragged by the wind. A lateral hatch that leads to the garage [where jetskis, inflatables and other water sports kit is stored] was open. This garage has direct access to the engine room, so if the door between them was also open, water would have quickly flooded the engine room, leading to the ship’s sinking. Furthermore, the boat’s mobile keel was partially raised. It’s clear that a lowered keel would have provided more stability to the sailboat in case of strong winds. Do you think the yacht builder made his claims lightly? “I can tell you with certainty that the ship took on water in these 13 minutes. It took on water not only flooding the garage but also the engine room,” he said. The local fishermen did not go out that night. These people took the weather conditions seriously. How did the crew of the Bayesian not take the meteorological bulletin seriously? I struggle to explain it. How did they, when they realised they were losing the ship, not think of rescuing the passengers who were in the cabins?
@@patciava3398 We do not know some of that as fact and nor does the designer or ceo of the company that bought the shipyard. The port side of the yacht is upper most and the divers have not reported the garage as open and it would be a strange vessel that sank on the opposite side to its flooding. There are a whole host of reasons why it could have taken on water once the weather hit: the hvac and engine room intakes; after it rolled, passengers and crew trying to escape out of the lower cockpit - a crew member may have already said he escaped that way; or passengers could have tried to escape forwards and opened that watertight door. It is not clear the retractable keel made a significant difference and if it would have done, the fault lies with procedures that did not require its use as much as the crew and there is a big difference between a glorified centre board that reduces leeway and a fully ballasted keel to ensure self righting. The weather forecast was not for weather the yacht could not withstand and that is why the CEO that bought the shipyard is attracting criticism given the Italian navy has said the weather forecast was not that bad. He is in any case, utterly illogical because if the yacht was as safe as he suggests, why would anyone don life jackets and muster on deck? He cannot have it both ways. In the case of most seaworthy yachts, it is safer to close everything up stay inside because they do self right as he maintains Bayesian should have done. He is not the designer as far as I am aware and has every incentive to blame the crew if he was or liked most people will not be able to conceive when the design fails - air crashes are a great parallel. Accidents do happen at sea and they need not have someone to blame - extreme weather is weather. It is more likely than anything there is a string of causes none of which would be significant on their own, but cumulatively were fatal and if any one part of that chain were broken, the yacht would not have gone down. Shipping and aviation have learned the hard way there is rarely only one source of failure.
The lack of 'Common sense' in this investigation is simply amazing. The biggest and best clue we have is that the mother was on deck with her infant child. She would NOT have been out on the deck at 4 AM with her baby IF it was stormy outside. She was on the deck trying to sooth and calm her crying baby so the baby did not disturb the other sleeping guests. It was calm on deck when the mother went outside and a moment later the ship was hit with a violent gust of wind and quickly capsized and sank. No one could have done anything to prevent it. Common sense tells us that if it was getting nasty and stormy with higher wind speeds the mother would have gone inside the cabin with her child. Instead, there was no time to get inside the cabin and she went overboard with her child because the event was sudden with no time to react. Sort of like being run down by a freight train you did not see coming.
However both the AIS and the captain of the other ship report that both ships were next to each other struggling for a little while, according to the AIS for about 16 minutes before sinking.
The mother and child WERE NOT on deck. The Captain went back on board (after being thrown off the ship by the knock down) to rescue her as the yacht was sinking.
I DEFINITELY APPRECIATE YOUR REPORTS ON THIS ACCIDENT. I MOST DEFINITELY DO NOT WATCH ANY NEWS REPORTS, FOR OBVIOUS REASONS. I APPRECIATE, FACTS AND THE TRUTH. AND THATS WHY I COUNT ON YOUR CHANNEL FOR BOTH . SO THANK YOU!
There is a huge difference between 20 mph winds and a downburst. A downburst can get up to 150 mph. The captain was responding to a report of 20 mph winds. You then have the question of when the captain was able to acertain the true situation. I do have a question on how well the AIS functions if the ship has significant heel.
Yes this is important. As is the amount of water (mass) in the wind. Separately, do we have definitive answer yet to the meteorology question whether they experienced a downburst (water goes down) vs a waterspout (water goes up) vs an exceptionally powerful squall (water goes sideways) etc.
And when the down burst hits the surface it spreads in all directions and depending on the yacht’s relative position it could hit it with wind from a completely different direction and beam on.
"the question of when the captain was able to acertain the true situation. " I've been in microbursts - you have zero seconds to maybe a minute if you are able to see the winds hitting things at a distance and are far away. It's like a wind explosion!
It seems that the captin knew what he was doing and kept to the procedures. I still belive that the the short keel vs the mast was the main issue, but this calls for the procedures to be revised.
It really depends on the awareness and preparedness of the Captain and crew and the awareness of the VIP guests and their position in the hull whereas if there is an ingress of water they were most likely to die?
@@dianamincher6479 Nope - absolutely no reason to do so. Note that there were several other vessels moored outside the harbour, which was almost certainly full iin any case.
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The main reason I am about to subscribe is not because I am a “yachtie” but because the host is fair, intelligent, and doesn’t appear to have an agenda.
Syssman is knowledgeable, respectful and serious. Credit to him
absolutely, excellent videos
I’d say he is certainly a trusted reference, but I’m questioning the use/timing of the clip @4:24 which is not a clip of the subject vessel but it’s implied without explanation.
Hello,
I share your opinion. He's really a respectful and serious person, I encourage him!
I thought it was the subject vessel
It’s such a pleasure to listen to well informed commentary over the past few weeks
What would you know ? How would you know this is accurate
@@ralphvandereb66 eSysMan's approach is calm and thoughtful, which is in marked contrast to other sources, including the mainstream media.
absolutely, very few new facts (more very brief and limited testimonies from crew members) and still so many unanswered questions. I don't understand how the testimony about the captain going to fetch mother and child is consistent with the mother's testimony; maybe we will have clearer view later, and maybe not. Was no one on the crew aware that such severe storms could happen in this particular area (it this to be specific to this place)? surely the captain who has mostly navigated in Med had some knowledge?
@juliettedonohue7069 Sounds like they were all in the dark and thrown in cold water - statement made was that the Captain helped save the baby & mother (Not "fetched")? Reports were the mother lost the baby in the water for a few seconds?
@@ralphvandereb66 LOL Ralphy! You bring SO much credibility! What’s YOUR channel with 300k loyal subscribers??
Thank you for your clear reporting on this tragedy. I don't need to read about this on any other media, you have spot-on reporting. From Cuttyhunk Island, Massachusetts, US.
I concur with this opinion of these helpful and objective reports. From San Antonio, Texas.
I actually learned about the deckhands statement here about 8hrs ago from an Italian bloke in the comments of a previous post and have been waiting for confirmation. So yes, this is by far the best place to come for updates
Ditto from Denmark
Your statement about you don't need to see any other media because this one has to be right makes you I'm sure CNN viewer!
@khriswildt5633 Dude, this is about accurate reporting from an outlet outside the United States of anarchy. We don't follow some nutcase who tells us what news to watch. We can decide for ourselves thanks.
Your reports are thorough and thoughtful. Thank you.
At this time, I wait for The Yacht Report
to get accurate Bayesian updates.
Always informative and timely.
Listening in Asheville, North Carolina USA
Viewing from Asheville NC as well :)
Me also!
Same here! From Berwick PA!
@@JodyLSumrallhow interesting! I lived in and sailed the virgin islands for many years before moving to the mountains full time. Hence my interest as a former Captain. Have a nice rest of the weekend!
@@Woof341 is your name Tom?
I think it was really gross that representatives of Italian Sea Group started blaming the crew a few days after the sinking and, on top of that, claiming that the just recently sunken vessel was unsinkable.
Of course, there is still work to be done to determine if there is any responsibility from both parties -crew and builders- and to what extent. However, blaming the crew without any evidence was despicable.
It's not just despicable, it's suspicious. As if they knew something wasn't quite right with the design ( it's the only one in that series of sister ships with one single mast), and they quickly need a scapegoat to shift attention away from design flaws.
@@regig.9493 I can already list over half a dozen design flaws that led to the sinking: 1. The out-of-proportion mast. 2. The falling-open sliding lounge doors. 3. 45-degree maximum angle of heel (on a SAILBOAT???). 4. 80-degree maximum angle of recovery (on a SAILBOAT???). 5. Vents in the hull sides (WTF???). 6. A low cockpit opening to starboard where a normal sailboat has a raised combing. 7. A heavy moveable centerboard approved to be raised while motoring or at anchor, because it made a little noise when down. I'm sure I could think of a few more by now. The one interview with a motor yacht designer I saw elsewhere got one thing right: Bayesian wasn't really a sailboat.
@@regig.9493And who was the designer ??? A Kiwi... !
@@angelikaopland7880 I've not spent that much time on ocean sailing boats to be by any means expert in anything, BUT, when those questions are laid-out and and I think about my basic experiences; This seems like a very vulnerable set of design factors.... not the makings of seaworthy craft, really!
@@regig.9493 "80-degree maximum angle of recovery (on a SAILBOAT???@ Yes quite a lot of people in the industry have thought that detail merits comment.
Thank you for this because frankly until the full report comes out you are the only person i trust in relation to anything relating to these type of boats
Well done Yacht Report, as many others have previously said, your presentation is excellent.
Excellent reporting, this is the only outlet that has been fair and impartial from the beginning of this tragedy. Hopefully this statement will help to reduced the potentially slanderous and defacing comments about the crew that have been so quick to flood the internet by people who don’t understand the marine industry.
So glad you're here to counter so much misinformation and sloppiness. Thoughts to all the bereaved and all the crew too
Another possibility for the strange movement of the boat (according to the AIS data) was the anchor chain getting wrapped around the keel or rudder. This has happened to me during a sudden squall, and my boat was pinned sideways. Being pinned sideways in conditions like that would have been unrecoverable. In my case the squall spun me around and wrapped the keel, and then the current helped to keep me pinned. I was alone, at night, and worried about the chain's proximity to the prop if I tried to use the engine to rescue myself. Fortunately there was a TowboatUS station nearby, and they quickly dispatched a boat to help me. The towboat captain had no idea how to free me, so I guided him through the maneuver, and all was well. But the conditions I experienced were nothing compared to what hit Bayesian!
Thanks for sharing. I've heard no one else mention this possibilty. Sounds like it would explain the yachts movements if the AIS is correct.
After reading your comment im wondering if the engine was started but the wind was blowing the yacht over the chain and it actually went round the prop and dragged the boat towards the anchor or at least held it in a side n position where the wind was able yo blow it flat and then it couldnt right itself because the chain was wrapped tight around the prop and holding it in that degree of position from sideways under the yacht, if you can understand what i am saying. I know i had an anchor chain round my prop once and in strong wind its so scarey and you cant move
I believe the anchor was a big issue for them also, based on the AIS tracking. May have even pinned them "stern to" the waves if chain was wrapped around the prop.
I think there may have been multiple factors at play, but I do believe the anchor may well have a role here, possibly a key role, pinning the boat.
@@toniking8386 Yes i think the anchor could have had something to do with it. If the chain was under the boat round prop and the wind was blowing side on it would be like being pinned flat to the sea and would happen very quickly. Be interesting to see what is found out. None of the fivers mentioned the anchor or where it was.
I was on a large catamaran which flipped over. I had been crew for a couple of years, and being upside down is exceptionally disorienting.
That's what people don't understand is especially if you're down below in the cabin it will be pitch dark and your door will not be where it's supposed to especially if you were awoken by being tossed out of the bed because you went sideways. Unless you have something that you can use to reach the doorway you're not going to be able to get out
@@wisdomsleuth77777Not only that but I would imagine being tossed out of bed on a yacht like this would result in a person landing hard against cabinetry, causing at least minor injury and further disorienting them.
@@wisdomsleuth77777 Are there not emergency lighting in vessels like this? It seems like as soon as the main power went out that emergency lighting should have kicked on.
I raced sailboat/yachts quite a bit over a ~30 year period. I've had the mast in the water in way too many times to remember. Including while racing ~20,000nm in the ocean. The "scariest incident" was being pinned down w/the storm spinnaker,( hoisted on a ~30 M mast) filling w/water about 1,000nm from any land. This was on a racing -yacht, Kialoa II, designed for the ocean w/3-4 pretty, to just 3-5 "average" experienced amateur crew. A couple of the other less to almost no experienced crew got so spooked they were not helpful in the situation at all. Others, were initially "stunned" but recovered in a minute or so. While this situation wasn't exactly "trained for", it was "expected" and somewhat planned for. We were more prepared than the guests, owners, some of the crew of the Bayesian and some still panicked.
@@mrl22222 some of the large catamaran’s I have toured had a port below knee level, in the water, designed to be opened in the event of a “turtle”. I am wondering, did you have one? If so, was it useful?
Thank you for your calm, knowledgeable, informative recaps of available info.
A couple of thoughts ...
-Ais, if it is not receiving heading info could have 'guessed' that the yacht was pointed the direction it was traveling when it was dragging anchor and turned the icon incorrectly. Boats tend to remain pointed into the wind when dragging back or lay perpendicular.
-The skipper is always responsible for everything that happens on their boat.
-If dragging in 20-30 knots, the yacht probably was not anchored properly. Not seeing a proper backdown on the graphic. A microburst would not last long enough to drag that far.
-It was peak season for waterspouts and associated extreme wind bursts. This season has had the hottest water recorded. It was stormy weather. The skipper knew all this and that the odds of a knockdown were relatively high.
-If the bulkheads were open (the only way to sink this boat) in these conditions, the skipper is liable.
-Taking the 5th. Refusing to comment to authorities doesn't look good for the skipper. Hopefully he is cooperating with the investigation that will help MCA and others responsible for this boat design, to improve.
-Venting. I have skippered some smaller yachts and ships to 110'. I have never seen an open vent to the engine room as proposed. Aircon is cooled by the seawater of course. Engineroom blowers run air through large hoses or ducts, I don't see how they could allow a sinking amount of water in.
-Bulkheads. I keep coming back to this as the only way to sink this yacht.
I don’t have any nautical experience, but I do have many years of experience reporting on big breaking news stories as a journalist. I appreciate your thorough reporting, and also the great care you are taking to verify facts and urge caution about jumping to conclusions. Credibility is everything, which I’m sure you know. People may quibble over your choices, but your sincere efforts to be fair is undeniable as far as I’m concerned. Your work will help make the industry safer and better for yachting and also the local communities that have relied on these ports for many centuries.
I'm not a sailor of any kind, the sea isn't a place for me but I find your channel very informative and enjoy, very much seeing the thing that terrifies me.
Love the channel. As the proud owner / captain of a jenneau 1095f, it makes me smile when you refer to this yacht as small. However I try and apply the concepts and lessons you describe on this channel for larger ships, and feel it makes me a better and safer small yacht captain for my family as many of these considerations are not typically shared with or covered in the limited training provided to small private yacht owners. Thank you.
I do recommend the Nexus report (on TH-cam) to everyone. It was a very good summary of known facts thus far. Thanks too for your top-notch reporting. I look forward to very new report.
I lived through a microburst on the water in the day time. It just look like a normal rain shower in the summer. I just happen to be close to land where the wind was all of a sudden blowing over a 100 mph. It was crazy in just a few seconds I do not remember how many minutes it lasted, but it was extremely intense and a few boats where turned over that day.
something that never happened except in your fantasies.
@@LiveFromLondon2 do you know the commenter personally?
17 years back. Saw what looked like thunder clouds rolling coming up the harbour. Increased gusting winds...started motor, headed for shelter off point of land. Dropped main and tied it down, furled jib while motoring for shelter. Getting closer, lots of wind on nose. Threw off anchor in 18 feet and she blew back with 150 feet out in seconds. Felt anchor grab and hold. Kept engine running and wind and driving rain came. Rain was hitting me so hard had to check it wasn't hail. Took cover under Dodger as it increased. A seagull was perched on the transom and we just looked at each other. It passed in mere minutes...the sea gull left and I put my mainsail cover on, recovered my anchor and motored 10 minutes back to the club. I was that close to the club but those tumbling black clouds looked so ominous that I got everything down and dropped the anchor. I know of one ther boat that was out in it and they too dropped sail. They had a harder time of it but were OK . Visibility was very limited once it hit. I did note trees blown down, not one or two, whole sections of trees blown over.
I was headed back to the club anyway because I thought a thunderstorm was coming but had never experienced anything like that on land or on the water.
I experienced a downdraft. It was instant. There was some wind and rain, but then in a few seconds the trees were all pushed over onto my house. If my house had been this ship, it would have been turned on its side just as quickly. I personally am not inclined to blame anyone. Some forces of nature you just can’t fight in the moment.
I played with my downdraft yesterday. A huge waterspout came out.
You have given very unbiased coverage of this event. However, I wish when YT channels show the footage that you show at 4:26, it is clarified that this is not the Bayesian!
Some TH-cam channels show whatever images they like & only accidently show whatever their AI narrator is talking about now & then. Some seem to get EVERYTHING wrong.
Yes, he already covered that in previous videos
@@cindycreateforlifei know that, but many people wouldn’t know this so a disclaimer would be appropriate to clarify the fact that it’s a different vessel.
Thanks for striving to stay with validated facts and avoid speculation. As with aircraft accidents, we all only learn from proven / validated facts. Only learnings based on those facts will lead to more safety in the future.
No finger pointing, no blame game.
@eSysmanTech, from another Mersysider (I'm from Southport), thank you for an excellent channel with nonbiased, clear and salient commentary and information.
Thanks for constantly keeping us updated and informed. Much appreciated.
Thank you so much much for all your diligence on such a sad story
Thanks for the update and knowledgeable explanations. Ii hope the many blaming the crew with no information are watching as information comes out. Good questions that I hope those investigating are asking. Looking for your next update.
More good reporting sysman from you and your team
I, like others I read here, only source yachting news from your channel, because it is succinct, balanced and professional in every way.
How I wish big network news services did the same!
Cheers from Australia🐨
Although I'm a rower and as a former DA into Bayesian probabilistic reasoning and air crash investigation the way you handle this topic is spot on.
You give the trial by media a positive twist.
Keeping it simply taking all data into evidence including well founded opinions of experts and critically giving that a rigourous scrutiny as well.
I'm also convinced that you are a type to change in review a stated position as wrong when new data taken into evidence points to that.
Excellent job!
Esysman is known for correcting any mistakes or errors in the next video. One of many reasons, I watch his videos.
The biggest thing I think that people don't realize is when you're turned sideways your door is completely unreachable depending on the circumstances and you're trying to do it in the pitch dark
Maritime ships will never be land resorts, and shouldn’t be designed to look like a land resort. Every vessel on the sea (or inland waters) needs to be rigged for rough weather. That means no sliding glass doors, but instead small portholes. It means no loose furniture, but instead fixed furniture, handholds everywhere.
I’ve been at sea in 55 knots wind in Sea of Cortez with breaking seas washing across the deck. Been dismasted 300 miles off San Diego, and lost rudder on a 84’ ‘maxi’ sail boat 80 miles off Baja Calif. The sea will find every weakness in a boat and crew, and tear everything apart. I’ve seen it.
Thank you, me too!
The tragic in this whole situation is that these days people wanting to buy a vessel come along with the idea that modern technology solves all problems of the past and one can happily step on a boat to sail anywhere.
Please don't ask me to tell anything about the sailors coming through the place I'm re-building my ship for the last years but much of it is shocking to put it carefully.
Manufacturers have caught up on this trend. They are more than happy that the amount of "proper" sailors asking questions they do not enjoy to answer has been mainly replaced by people who don't know any better.
Suddenly more and more silly designs popped up. In the small scale and the large scale including "super-yachts". And most of it focussing on entertaining people.
I haven't got a clue where this is leading to and if there might be a wakeup call one day.
It is sad. For the people who lost their loved ones and friends.
But, the sea knows no mercy. Even going out with proper boats there is no guarantee. Nature is stronger.
You are the best person given out information about this case. Thank You 🙏🏽💙💙
Good list of questions! Yes, I hope they all get answered. Thank you for this update! Fascinating testimony from the crew member. I was struck by his saying that the vessel had capsized yet he and the captain had enough time to climb the hull and attempt to rescue others. That suggests that the sinking was not immediate, and that water intrusion occurred after the capsize and did not directly cause the capsize. The wind knocked the vessel over, then water began to get in via various openings. That is what I surmise anyway from what the information provided. I hope you continue to provide more testimony as it is reported.
Also there was insufficient emergency signage so that the six passengers could escape timeously through the narrow staircase to the upper deck and to relative safety? There should also have been emergency lighting and warning alarms in the VIP cabins!
@@dianamincher6479Maybe "designers" will take these "on board" (sorry about the pun) in future!!!
This channel is top notch and provides insight not generally available thru the mainstream media.
Ditto What's going on with shipping TH-cam channel for ships
I think you are totally correct with your deductions of anchor wrap around the keel Davidhoy and I dont understand why this possibility has not been bought up by the "?experts" before now.
I experienced that very scenario on a 40ft sailing cat when tide pushed the boat up on the anchor, the boat rotated and caught the rope around one of the centre boards that had been left partially down. Being a cat she still sat flat on the water but sideways on to the flow of the outgoing tide.
If Bayesian was connected to the anchor from the bow as normal it would have streamed away from the anchor when the wind first came in and would have rotated with the wind direction as that changed. Even if the boat was hit by a strong side blast it would have still moved in the direction of the wind and would have self righted (according to the builders) as the wind passed. As anyone who has spent any serious time at sea on yachts would know, when at anchor boats move to the wind and also to the current or tide. It is not uncommon to see boats riding up on their anchor as the weight of the chain overcomes the weight of the boat, or the tide changes and pushes the boat towards the anchor, leaving slack in the chain or anchor rope which is then hanging directly down from the bow. I believe the boat was originally anchored in 30M of water, so she should have had at minimum 150M of chain or rope out. With that as a probability, it is easy to see how an incoming storm could cause the boat to rotate to the changing wind angle while at the same time being pushed over the slack chain or rope allowing it to wrap around the keel or rudder or props. Once she is tethered mid ships and comes up hard on the anchor then the wind hits her side on and she has to list to the wind, which is probably what happened as the crew say she went over to 20 degrees and then over to 45 degrees. The crew would have been totally confused trying to understand what was happening.
The evidence will be lying on the sea bed and should have been documented by now so we have to wait to see if that evidence is released to the public or held by the insurers or salvers.
Divers have reported nothing that I know of about the anchor chain being snagged on the keel, & it is only a shoal-draft keel with board still up.
New member here in Michigan bc of the tragic news/loss of these people. Prayers for the families, first responders, divers 🙏💜
🙋♂️THANKS FOR THE UPDATES AND WE AWAIT THE ANSWERS WHEN THEY ARE AVAILABLE 💚💚💚
Found a nice niche and do it well. Good for you.
It's really hepful to leverage on your experience and bring clarity to those events.
I understand the woman and her child were were out on the deck, which is why they survived. She can presumably speak to what role the captain played in saving them.
Also ... if he was saving them, he was occupied and couldn't leave them to go get any others.
@@lazygardens what did her husband do when he also survived
@@gha9543 I have not read any statements from him as to where he was on the yacht and what his actions were.
@@lazygardensObviously they were all "in the dark" & it is a 1 yr old "baby"! What would you do? Watch the baby die?
@@gha9543These people were thrown all over the place in the dark & in cold water &:you want to know what did her husband do? Dumb?
Something I keep thinking about also is that as soon as that boat went on it's side, it would have gone dark. If you are on an unfamiliar boat and now it's on it's side making it more confusing now it's dark and you are blind. Pretty scary.
Although all luxury yachts must have emergency lighting lighting up the cabins and the emergency exits and this emergency lighting comes on automatically and lasts 3-8hours?
@@dianamincher6479 Underwater?
Plus, there is the possibility the mattress from the bed was tossed onto the door to the room. You would be standing on something which is blocking the exit.
In video from land, it did appear the lights went out very quickly after the boat went on its side. What a nightmare.
@@antonomaseapophasis5142 Yeah it's hard to even imagine what that situation would be like.
Thank you for this informative reporting. When you speculate, it's from experience and knowledge and not sensationalized. I trust you.
My sympathy's for the Crew and survives that will carry this nightmare with them for ever. What really making me angry, is the efforts of a rep for the boat manufacturer, pointing at the crew and away from the boat design. There was no reason for the crew to do anything different than what they did with the forecast given for a "20 knot breeze". Let's get real. This boat should have been able to handle a 20 knot breeze, but it was a freak storm. The crew is being slandered by assumptions to protect the interests of everyone else. The Captain and crew are hero's doing what they could to save lives in such a short moment.
Looks like the crew did all they could
That's corporate culture--the 'company first' mentality. Business and the protection of life at sea (or elsewhere, for that matter) often are at odds with each other.
Good job changing your name. It made you seem like a software company like Linksys or Infosys
Fascinating. thank you for keeping us up to date.
A 20 knot wind is nothing to worry about in a boat of this size. Asking the crew to keeping cushions etc from blowing overboard would be a very reasonable course of action for the crew.
The boat was blown over by the laws of physics. The formula for energy is E=1/2mv2, m is the mass of the moving air, v is the velocity of the wind. The wind energy increases exponentially in proportion to the velocity squared.
An 80 knot wind is 4x the velocity of a 20 knot wind, but the wind energy applied against the mast and hull is 16x greater, a huge difference.
Tell to italian engineers 😜
Now run this calculation with the assumption that the air mass holds a high volume of water, is now more dense & thus packs more punch per knot of wind speed. There are more variables, I suspect, than the manufacturer wants to pay engineers to recalculate for. Same goes for the revised mast height on Bayesian vs. the designed ketch rig...or what happens when a hull this size is rotated at high speed to near it's designed maximum list angle. It's not going to stop spinning before the mast hits the water, no matter what the math claims.
I was on the island of Corsica in October 2003 and in beautiful cloudless weather, from the top of a cliff I observed the calm wind rise to 75 knots in a few minutes. The sea had turned white because the water was flying into the air. It was impossible to stand up. I have never observed this unpredictable phenomenon with the Atlantic Ocean. For me the Mediterranean is an unpredictable sea, especially after August 15 when the water temperature is very warm. As a French sailor, wanting to sleep on a boat at anchor outside a secure port in the Mediterranean is a very big risk, a lack of awareness or a lack of knowledge of this sea in particular. In France we have an expression for this type of known phenomenon: "a Mistral blow" !
The captain neighbouring vessel had more sense, was more alert and took sensible precautions...
@@angelikaopland7880 No disagreement, just a note. Water vapor is less dense than dry air, but you are probably correct in that the actual water in the air probably adds to the mass hitting the superstructure.
AIS:
As an electrician, I have some questions that may be answered by people working in GB:
- In smaller vessels the AIS is FORBIDDEN to use signals from the normal navigation equipment. It has it's own GPS and with this it calculates every other datum. So the heading of the boat is not reliable if it is only moving slowly. This might explain the data from Marinetraffic due to a slowly dragging anchor.
- if the AIS may take compass or other data from the navigation system may depend on the regulations for that ship size and flag state.
Is the arrow's direction dictated by CoG or by heading? Class A AIS will normally report both
@sventhormodpetersen1752 I'm only familiar with small vessels.
- AIS shall not take the position from navigation bus - it has to have it's OWN GPS.
- the AIS is NOT ALLOWED to announce it's position to navigation bus
Can ask a friend if he would run AIS over night but nav not - interesting how the readings on marinetraffic will be
Excellent list of questions, hopefully the answer come soon. Interesting account from the deckhand, that adds to the sinking information. The captain rescued a mother and child which is good news. The story that is coming slowly to us is at least factual and doesn't discriminate against the crew. Excellent research by you and the team, thank uou.
Thank you eSyssman for the update on this very sad sinking......🇺🇸
Hello,
Thank you Sysman for this update on this very unfortunate shipwreck.
I was really depressed by this tragedy.
I wish you a good rest of the week. .
I have seen a lot of unreliable articles online saying the blackbox of the bayesian was found giving the last 16 mins of what happened on the vessel - but then reading the article it didn't give confirmation or evidence and was just a lot of air without saying anything of sustance - so I am glad you are doing updates with reliable sources - thank you
As with air crashes, it is usually a chain of events that results in the tragedy... same here... there are a whole lot of questions still to be asked and answered,. and it will take time to ascertain all the information to accurately report the cause of this yacht sinking.
And the VIP guests should rather have slept on the deck with the others! Much safer and no narrow staircase to safety to negotiate!
@@dianamincher6479Who knows what fate has in store? When it's your time to go, you can't fight it!
This is the best channel for following this horrific story. Thanks for keeping it going. Seeing this particular post for the first time at 2100 of Sept. 3 (Newport, RI USA). AIS isn’t ‘smart’ enough to point the bow in the right direction. It’s only one point on the boat. It will interpret the bow pointing forward in the direction the boat is travelling - which would speak to the anchor dragging. (Whereas the nearby boat had its engine running and was in gear perhaps.) Not sure why there would be a gyroscope on board.
The crew are all heroes, they literally saved 15 people while in a nightmare❤
... or their actions created this tragic situation. Don't make conclusions without knowing all the facts. The Kegworth air disaster should have thought us some lessons that can be applied to the sea as well.
The Captain saving the mother and girl ! I would really like to stick this in the face of some people that are blaming the captain and crew. I have 50 years in yachting, this could have happened to I think any professional or amateur captain out there no matter how experienced and cautious. A 20-27 knot forecast is nothing that would have caused any concern about a catastrophic weather event. This was a freak event. If any finger pointing it should be of a design with 45 degree down flooding angle and board up VS angle of 78 degrees that is terrible for any sailing yacht or any yacht really in my experienced opinion.
What are you on about? The people (non crew) saved themselves.
If it were up to the crew all passengers would be dead
It's a miracle that anyone who was below deck made it up and survived. The woman survivor and her small child may have been in the cabin closest to an exit.
@@edelweiss2.076 she had decided to sleep on deck rather than in the cabin.
Thanks for your outstanding work covering the tragic sinking of the Bayesian.
It's great that you hold off any judgements while the evidence is incomplete and unclear. And don't jump to conclusions about who may - or may not - be at fault.
It may well turn out that we'll end up seeing this as a yacht crew that saved 15 of the guests rather than lost 7. We should wait for the full picture to emerge.
Speaking as an engineer, I don't think I'd have wanted to design a boat where things like stability are pushed so close to the margins.
the firefighters reported in newspaper interviews that when they went down to the depths they found the anchor attached to the ship and the doors of the saloon were closed
they found that on the seabed there are signs of the anchor being dragged.
and they asked how much chain was available on the anchor
and they couldn't answer that
The boat dragged its anchor around 1 hour before the boat sank?
@@dianamincher6479 16minutes 3,50 until 4,06
@@pacoxxi3302 They were intent on recovering bodies, and had to limit each dive to 10 minutes at the wreck.
@@hb1338
yes but there were explorations first and to understand how to enter.
and each dive max 12 minutes
Thank you for the updates! 🇨🇦
Finally more details and actual relevant facts, rather than speculation. High compliments to The Yacht Report. Notably, just about the very first completely unfounded speculation came from Mr. Constantino, of the company that owns Perini Navi, who instantly branded himself as an unreliable source for anything at all by pronouncing a vessel that had just sunk as "unsinkable" (or equivalent verbiage) if X or Y were the case - circumstances about which he could not possibly have any knowledge at that point. Just those hasty comments alone make one suspicious of the seaworthiness of the boat design or construction under very rare extreme conditions. Certainly we ought to remain open to evaluate what really happened based on more facts and witness statements, and I have no doubt we'll see those compiled here.
Great job updating. Thanks!
This is what I've been saying since it happened people don't understand that your door is completely in a different place could be unreachable especially if you're trying to deal with it in the dark I don't think anybody accounts for that in the General Public
Sounds like te emergency lighting wasn't functioning and there were no alarm systems?
@@dianamincher6479All show! Designers responsible!!!
Another insightful update presenting only the confirmed facts without going into conspiracy theories. Well done.
It's curious how so many You tubers, many of whom have probably never even seen a sailing yacht let alone been on one, seem to know so much more than the technical and naval experts.
Appreciate the updates !
Giovanni Costantino is trying desperately to avoid ANY hint of blame, throwing the crew under the nearest bus. If I had the money to buy a yacht like that it wouldnt be one of his. The crew is not able to speak publicly for legal reasons, and he should shut his mouth too. No respect for the dead, just divert the blame.
He's exposed himself as a world-class idiot with that "unsinkable" claim, so there's that.
Clearly they left a hatch open, how is that not the crews fault
Yep, looks like that to me too.
Giovanni Costantino's company build a yacht that overwhelmed the crew. On the other hand, the crew did non understand the severity of the situation. Who will go out on deck to collect pillows and flowers if they knew that the storm was endangering their ship.
the poor crew don’t have financial resources to recruit expensive PR firms and lawyers! Despicable to throw them to the wolves!
Great update thank you!
I have at sea for most of my life I started at six years old and finished with last ship 7 years ago a three hundred tonne marine research ship built in Japan. I have been thru or experienced 5 cyclones two as a young fisherman in my late teens and three others in the last 10 years. The last in March 2017 which I lost my ship when the eye of a cyclone with 311km wind went over top her and put her on the beach . Let me say this over the years I have learnt in many cases the hard way, that proper preparation is the key to safety at sea. There is only one way that you can be prepared properly and that is if you have advanced warning. It’s becoming clearer every day that the captain and crew acted in accordance with their responsibility. It’s impossible to prepare for a severe weather event if it comes out of nowhere. Don’t let me hear comparisons with the vessel nearby it is a totally different equation . This was an unusual unexpected event that was not forecast. The crew are hero’s for saving the lives of so many in very adverse conditions. Unless you have been there you do not have any idea related to how tough it is to survive. Can’t talk can’t hear and sometimes can’t even see.
Proper Preparation Prevents Piss Poor Performance!.....Sometimes! Never underestimate Mother Nature!!!
Proper preparation in this case is to ensure that the ship is properly manned and crewed by competent people
@@patrickvonstieglitz5836 Agree! Good luck finding that kind of folks.
hello
Excellent and informative presentation. This investigation has a long way to go yet but I guess an underwater survey will help. For the sea state to build significantly depends on the wind-speed, the fetch of the wind and the length of time it blows.
Sea state wasn't a factor. Bayesian was simply swatted down by a heavy burst of wind, laid on her side & filled with water. Something you could duplicate with a toy boat in a bathtub...but a "pond yacht" with adequate ballast would settle to the bottom upright. Bayesian went down without righting & is still on her side.
In my mind the everybody was doing they're own routines as they do in light wind/weather. Noone expected the boat to capsize so ofcourse someone forgot to lock the huge sliding doors or close the side door. On the other hand I dont think the vents on the side of the hull are big enough to let in enough water mere seconds before the boat would self right. Behinds the inlets there are probably ducts that will restrict the amount of water gushing in. The huge double door would have let in swimming pool amounts of water every second and you would not be able to come out from a cabin and swim towards such a explosive river of water filling the boat. If the huge doors where closed the passengers would have had time to crawl out. Those doors are a death trap and the crew should have been given training to always seal the main door shut at different operating situations. Since the deck hand didnt talk about the doors this was obviously not part of his training.
If doors would have been locked, most guests wouldn't have know how to get out - back to emergency drills. I would think the main access they used would be their first thought. The door problem should have been corrected as it's been a known problem for some time.
You can't lock the doors like that, then nobody could get in and out and guests and crew would have been stuck inside. Without actually locking them shut they would open by themselves.
As a chief Engineer working on yachts over many years I never saw the owners or guests ever
Participate in any kind of safety drills what so ever. The sentiment amongs most is that the crew are there to keep them safe and show them what to do if need be.
Everything is panning out as expected...vessel
was not in immediate danger, then they got smacked by the unexpected, and unpredictable microburst.
The fact they were able to get back on board and rescue some passengers is is indicating ,that perhaps the boat didn't sink as fast as we thought.
I imagine that If, they were walking on the walls, any doorways along the boats centerline, may well have been out of reach...both to them and passengers trapped below.
5 minutes under these circumstances is nothing
@@testboga5991yes the rapidity of the sinking is the big issue from what I can gather from other commentators. A boat like this should be able to be in this position and not sink rapidly. I can picture crew remaining relatively calm as they couldn't imagine it actually sinking.
The point is the Captain and the operating crew had 4 hours to prepare for the worst and should have been adequately prepared for the worst?
@dianamincher6479 preparing for what? The weather Forcast was minor for this size of vessel. Easily withstood...until very suddenly it couldn't be .
Preparing for a major storm would turn the boat into something resembling a submarine. Not what you want for the passengers on a luxury yacht at anchor...in fact if the weather was Forcast to be truly severe, the passengers would more than likely have been sent ashore.
The lady with the infant were already on the deck (as per her own statement) when the boat heeled and they fell into the water. Why isn't everyone interviewed? The picture would get more complete and clear.
Subbed in appreciation of your reporting .... and leaving out the water temp GW mentioned by that professor in the full interview you clipped from ... ex NZ Comm Fisherman here.
Here's a weird one that is pertinent: My brother, a former USCG SAR Officer, and I were discussing this tragedy and the unlikelihood of a cyclone or downburst exactly hitting any boat. Astonishingly, he said his first ever SAR incident was exactly that!: A fishing boat with Vietnamese crew had been directly hit by a cyclone. Wow! The report that Captain and crew of the Bayesian crawled back onto the boat to rescue guests would be nothing short of heroism. Should that be confirmed by the investigation, perhaps these traumatized professionals could be recognized formally and publicly with some sort of civilian commendation for fulfilling their duties in the worst of situations (walking on the walls!) The huge balls award perhaps.
The Captain and the crew had four hours to prepare for the storm and needed to consult the weather charts and to prepare for the worst!
There was a lot of hubris around and this was a large glamorous super yacht!
yeah, crawled back on to a boat during a downburst? There was no downburst, the water was a bit choppy thats all. Anyway, their efforts will be recognised formally, they are going to jail.
@@LiveFromLondon2 "There was no downburst". Says a man who has never worked at sea and was 1000 miles from the incident. Your grandmother would be very unhappy with you.
@@dianamincher6479 The predicted worse was not too alarming. What is alarming is the 45 degree down-flood angle. That is motor yacht territory and I would think ridiculous for anything sprouting a record height mast and of such high windage and momentum. Note that during a heavy deluge water can work its way into the bilge and reduce that angle and furthermore destabilize the ship and reduce self-righting angle. Perhaps the only thing that could have saved that ship is cutter charges that could be fired to sever the mast and prevent its leverage from maintaining a capsize.
PS: I would like to know if and when any bilge alarms went off or if automatic bilge pumps had started to ascertain to likelihood of any destabilization.
Good vlog again…report seems to make sense and fits with my theory
I think the plotter gets a positive speed value and draws the ship icon in the direction of its movement. It doesnt know the ship is moving backward. For that you need 2 or more (differential) gps antennes.
Not sure what system this vessel had, but on AIS one can often see ship bow and stern indicated, even while tied up in harbor. Some ships are only a dot, most are a triangle when underway and larger ones indicate both size and bow.
Ah, have a look at the Sir RBP then. It IS dragging it;s anchor, with the bows pointing up to the anchor/wind while moving astern.
@@helmshardover could be gps error. When you are stationary you can sometimes notice the icon for your own vessel pointing in different directions. That's gps (lack of) precision being interpreted as an actual heading. Or maybe it's sending gyro compass heading to the AIS system instead of relying on heading calculated from gps.
@@thingsmymacdoes I feel you're getting confused between Heading & Course...
Informed information as ever. Thank you.
At 68 I worked on tugboats for most of my life and this is probably the strangest incident I have ever seen. Having had a while to digest the news on it I have to conclude that the design of the hull to be the main factor. I'm very sure that had the retractable keel been in the down position it wouldn't have capsized. You can check out an eerily similar incident 125 years ago Google the wreck of the sailing ship Andelana in tacoma Washington in 1899. It was a very modern vessel for the time.
There is a video of baylesian being retrofitted with the tallest mast ever built at the time.
It was not of the original design. It was much taller & heavier. The vid is a few years old. They are bragging about the height of the mast & the challenge of the installation.
One could easily imagine that extra height & weight taking on more wind... & with the keel elevated at all, with waves... I think it will be concluded that this retrofit mast was at least partially to blame.
The keel being retracted is SOP at anchor. No more discussion is necessary.
@@oldmech619 Well said. This is an act of God well beyond the act of any man to stop it. I hate the fact there is a witch-hunt on the crew.
@@dulls8475 Yes, the rats are complaining that they ought to have be the first deserting the sinking ship, and the crew beat them to it
Several days ago, the prosecutor said he already had enough information to prosecute two of the crew members. He is not waiting for the investigation to conclude. This is Italian justice. Seriously.
My questions:
1 What was CAPE factor in weather forecast for that night ? ( This factor shows possibility of violent weather events , storms, down-burst etc )
2 Why yacht was not prepared for big wind during night ? ( taking cushions and other things inside in the evening etc ) crew were doing that way to late , making themselves busy instead of saving boat and passengers )
4 Why nobody look at radar ???? In the night you cannot see cumulonimbus approaching ( with high possibility of violent winds , downburst ) , but it is visible on radar in night time .
5 How it happened , that no other yacht or fishing boat was damaged or sink , but only this one ?? Others have been informed and prepared ?
6 Where huge amount of water come in ??? ( to sink this ship ) Air intakes for engine, gen are small and usually siphoned . My guess is transom lazaret door with tender attached to it .
This kind of weather cannot sink this size of yacht if captain and crew know , what are they doing. ( preparing and protecting passengers and ship instead of cushions )
I have experienced this kind of weather almost exactly in this same place . Like 5-6 NM , NE of Palermo. By few minutes from below cumulonimbus wind blows ( gusts ) 73 knots. It was scary , yacht was heeling about 30 degrees , It was some water ( from horizontal rain ) , but no damage . We just put sails down , close hatches, start engine and throw cushions inside lastly . It was on 72 ft sloop , like 10 years ago , but during the day , so cumulonimbus was visible and I ( captain ) was aware of possible danger . We just motor mostly stern to wind thru this . All event ( gusts ) lasted about 3 minutes.
The fact that all the survivors in this rapidly changing chain of events includes all the Crew kinda confirms that if you value your life you shouldn't really go near the Sea if you can't Crew a Vessel in any way shape or form
Now unfortunately the passengers thought they were staying in a Boutique hotel on land with a Sea view
In truth they were sleeping above 50 meters of water with just the skin of the Hull between them and the Seabed
I've been on the North Sea for over 20 years now and there's nothing Glamorous about it whatsoever and many times through tiredness and fatigue the Sea could have easily taken me if she wanted to.
I can't see how the Captain/Crew could be liable for a freak weather system in this instance tbh?
The chef died. He was part of the crew too.
Combine that with the last video on no safety training of guests and small signs and hidden safety features for aesthetics and sleep deprivation of the crew. Not good.
The most lethal cabins were the VIP ones as the VIPs had to negotiate a narrow staircase to the upper deck to safety and they couldn't manage this timeously! Angela Bacares acted on instinct and rushed up the narrow staircase to safety just in time? She must have appreciated the lethality of the position of the VIP cabins in the hull! Pity she didn't raise the alarm?
I am trying to visualise how there can be "nothing glamorous" about being an owner or passenger on a 50 meter superyacht. Nope, I am failing. BTW I am now into my 20th year living aboard and covered 50,000nm.
@@dianamincher6479 Nope. She was wakened by some part of the disturbance and decided to investigate. She was just lucky.
I like your channel, the way you try to explain what you know 👍
Marko, germany
Has anyone talked to Dick Beaumont - Founder Of Kraken Yachts? I remember him talking about safety safety safety! And about the keel and about how things can go wrong and about instability in the keel (a few had it snap off and it kills instantly trapping sailors inside) anyway - I would LOVE to know his take on this - he said he would never put his family on a boat that wasn’t safe and about things being safe above all else - Garcia yachts also have water tight doors going down the hatch - one man spoke about the boat doing a full 360 in the boat and saying he had never been happier to have those doors - any feedback from builders like this?
Thanks for the update. As is the case in all marine disasters, there are lessons to be learned. The previous owner of my sailboat got hit with a microburst while under sail and it caused the boat to broach and then pull some of the standing rigging loose from the deck, so these types of winds can and do happen. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
Educated guess:
- in a regular old rainstorm a few of the crew went out on deck to clean things up
- the wind abruptly picked up due to a microburst
- the anchor started dragging and the boat turned broadside to both wind and waves
- because the keel was up and the mast unusually tall the boat unexpectedly heeled way over
- those on deck slid overboard
- large external doors and vents were still open and she took on water very fast
- the crew eventually climbed back on board to rescue passengers but there was too little time to go below deck,
sadly
The keel being up is being made into too much of talking point. The ballast required by the design is supposed to be enough for stability with the keel UP. It is designed for stability with keel up except while under sail. Not down at anchor or while motoring.
Tell to italian engineers who said It was unsinkable 😉
@@DavidGarcia-kf9wo If you close the nine watertight compartiment, yes. btw Ron Holland from NZ was the engineer
@@fabioprimaio8503 Mr. Holland did not design the rig on Bayesian, he designed this yacht as a ketch. A couple of motor yacht "experts" on another channel didn't even touch on the mast height, which I as a sailor view as a major contributing factor in this tragedy.
@@TerryKeever Agree.
I'd like to add some context. Perini Navi are built in Viareggio, Italy. This port has difficult access and tends to silt. Their shipyards are accessible passing through the marina and then a canaI. I visited the Perini Shipyards in 2008 and saw a 56M under construction. Noting the relatively shoal draft (keel up), I asked about it and was told that (at least at the time) there was an issue with dredging the entrance of the marina and sometimes Perinis couldn't enter or exit. Therefore, it seems to me that they made the shoal draft for the purpose of being able to take the boats in and out. An extra meter of draft, with 100 tons of lead down there, would have made a great difference in righting arm.
20 knots of wind is unremarkable, and no reason to wake up any guests. The boat listing notably with no sails set at 20 knots of wind is alarming.
Constantino is partial, and not an independent expert.
@@patrikfloding7985 +1 - 20 is when sailing actually starts ;)
The testimony did not say the boat was listing at 20 knots, it said he woke the captain at 20 knots. The wind probably increased subsequently.
20 knots are unremarkable, but no fisherman went out that night. Something doesn’t add up.
@@CapitanHarlockisback Whenever the sea is choppy the fish dive and disappear. Fishermen know this.
@@WM37980 So everybody but the crew knew the storm was coming… even the fishes.
Nature is always capable to create desaster no matter how hard we try avoid and anticipate.
The size of the mast has to be the contributing/ culminating factor!
Possible Scenario….
- Crew kept up late by guests, don’t have time to pack away the cushions etc. as they have early start; all go to bed except deck hand who stays on watch.
- Winds increase quickly in the early hours.
- The downburst/waterspout hits the vessel violently , causing it to drag anchor, simultaneously causing her to suddenly (but easily) broach, with the aid of the oversized mast and the keel being in a raised position.
- A regular yacht would pop back up after the surge or gust had passed.
- But due to the height and weight of the mast as well as the reduced ballast, mean she tips 90+ degrees, which means she’s taking on water so quickly, it wouldn’t matter if any doors were opened or closed.
Tragic accident
- there is nothing anyone could do from there except abandon ship.
I agree with most of your scenario!
yeah that about sums it up, its avs was less than almost any vessel i could research including a carrier, a 45 ft sail boat, a frigate, a cruise ship, you name it, it was the only ship i could find that didnt have an avs for between 110 and 140 degrees, excluding container ships
@@msromike123 I've said in previous threads that the real sailors of the Age of Sail had better equipment than Bayesian. Or...was that "frigate" a guided missile frigate? Either way, going to sea in a tippy, over canvassed mega-sailboat with a tiny crew outnumbered by leisure guests is just nuts.
If the keel were lowered and the wind blowing the ship from abeam causing dragging to the lee, the listing could have been even worse.
Great informative video as always thanks.
another video of that night is about to come out from another position is of a shipyard nearby that has the cam on that part of the sea.
the video is already in the hands of the authorities
Hope this is true.
@@TerryKeever several Italian streamers are waiting for that video.
there has been a lot of talk these days about this other video.
about a lady who wakes up at 3 in the morning because she has this shipyard that looks right at that point of the sea.
@@TerryKeever what wasn't true?
I reported all the things I read, saw and followed here in Italy
from the news to some talk shows.
Thanks for sticking to the facts
Your videos are more than just entertainment, they are a true source of inspiration and knowledge.🐕🦺🥦🍎
It is going to be easy to apportion blame in hindsight. However the crew were doubtless responding to something that they have attended to many times before, i.e. a strong wind at anchor. However, on this occasion the boat, without warning, gets knocked down by a very strong downburst. It was dark, this could not have been expected or anticipated and to say you should of woken the guests and got them into lifejackets and on deck, whilst with hindsight is actually correct, in the real world couldn't happen because you would be getting them up every other night for no reason whatsoever. This is a very rare event and it should be appreciated as such. No one would have been prepared for what happened so quickly. Everyone on deck would have been thrown into the water or left clinging on to something that used to be upright.
Once the boat goes beyond her maximum point of heel she will lay on her side, is never coming up and the only way is down. If you are thrown in the water you aren't going to be able to get back aboard and even if you could cling to something and get back aboard you would not be able to navigate the inside of the vessel to rescue anyone in the few minutes available. There would be very little chance of anyone trapped below escaping.
If you think about the Costa Concordia incident, she sat on the bottom at a few degrees of heel and pretty much everyone got off. If she had been in deeper water she would have rolled over and thousands would have been trapped below.
The question here can only be one of design of this sort of vessel and the rules, and indeed compromises, that RINA allow the boatbuilders to work under. Do not loose sight of the fact that every boat design is a compromise in one way or another.
Thank you for your unbiased insight into this tragic accident, quite a few of the other reports I have seen spout uninformed conclusions.
The biggest problem is you need to be able to get to the door that is now your ceiling and if there is 12 ft and it's absolute Pitch Black and that's if something heavy didn't land on you
@@wisdomsleuth77777 Exactly. Well put.
The sea was 30C and a storm is forecast -it could be brutal- for the guests' be fully prepared. Get them through that narrow staircase and onto the upper deck pronto! And regardless of their VIP status!
Except that your version of events is not what happened. There was no downurst, there was no knockdown. A storm was predicted , the fishermen stayed in harbour.
As for Concordia, what level of stupid are you? If it was in deeper water it would not have crashed into the rocks. You are one thick bot.
@@boatbloke6701 yeah just take a look at the door that you're sitting across from in the room and then imagine that being on your ceiling could you reach it and I don't think any of these prosecutors even thought about something like that you just have to conceptualize it
Very interesting and informative. (Even though I will probably never be on a super yacht!!!). Thank you.
I’ve been a ships captain for 30 years, many on super yachts, and have commanded Pereni Navi yachts during my career. It is a miracle that so many people survived this freak weather incident. In time, the crew will be honoured for their actions - provided the Italian investigators decide to treat this fairly, and not just side with the Italian yacht builder.
If the yacht design is at fault, how did they get British Marine to insured and flying a British flag means it had been certified by the British Navy? Not seaworthy and yet insured by British Marine . Wanker
@@gha9543I'd just like to say I wasn't entirely convinced about your argument at first, but when I got to the end and discovered your final masterstroke, namely calling the OP a w4nker, I realised that you must be right. Thanks for helping me to understand the truth.
Tw4t.
Your comment appears quite biased. Investigators are approaching the situation with a systematic and evidence-based methodology. They are focusing on whether the captain and crew took all the necessary safety precautions to prevent this tragedy. One key question is why all the crew members survived, while six guests and the chef tragically lost their lives. It seems likely that the water entered from somewhere, otherwise, a boat like this wouldn’t have sunk so quickly. Divers who carried out underwater inspections of the boat reported that the hatch was open. The strong wind arrived at 3.50am. Up until that moment, the Bayesian was still anchored. From 3.50 to 4.03, the ship moved as it was dragged by the wind. A lateral hatch that leads to the garage [where jetskis, inflatables and other water sports kit is stored] was open. This garage has direct access to the engine room, so if the door between them was also open, water would have quickly flooded the engine room, leading to the ship’s sinking. Furthermore, the boat’s mobile keel was partially raised. It’s clear that a lowered keel would have provided more stability to the sailboat in case of strong winds. Do you think the yacht builder made his claims lightly? “I can tell you with certainty that the ship took on water in these 13 minutes. It took on water not only flooding the garage but also the engine room,” he said. The local fishermen did not go out that night. These people took the weather conditions seriously. How did the crew of the Bayesian not take the meteorological bulletin seriously? I struggle to explain it. How did they, when they realised they were losing the ship, not think of rescuing the passengers who were in the cabins?
@@patciava3398 We do not know some of that as fact and nor does the designer or ceo of the company that bought the shipyard. The port side of the yacht is upper most and the divers have not reported the garage as open and it would be a strange vessel that sank on the opposite side to its flooding. There are a whole host of reasons why it could have taken on water once the weather hit: the hvac and engine room intakes; after it rolled, passengers and crew trying to escape out of the lower cockpit - a crew member may have already said he escaped that way; or passengers could have tried to escape forwards and opened that watertight door. It is not clear the retractable keel made a significant difference and if it would have done, the fault lies with procedures that did not require its use as much as the crew and there is a big difference between a glorified centre board that reduces leeway and a fully ballasted keel to ensure self righting. The weather forecast was not for weather the yacht could not withstand and that is why the CEO that bought the shipyard is attracting criticism given the Italian navy has said the weather forecast was not that bad. He is in any case, utterly illogical because if the yacht was as safe as he suggests, why would anyone don life jackets and muster on deck? He cannot have it both ways. In the case of most seaworthy yachts, it is safer to close everything up stay inside because they do self right as he maintains Bayesian should have done. He is not the designer as far as I am aware and has every incentive to blame the crew if he was or liked most people will not be able to conceive when the design fails - air crashes are a great parallel. Accidents do happen at sea and they need not have someone to blame - extreme weather is weather. It is more likely than anything there is a string of causes none of which would be significant on their own, but cumulatively were fatal and if any one part of that chain were broken, the yacht would not have gone down. Shipping and aviation have learned the hard way there is rarely only one source of failure.
Were there multiple anchors? I mean also one on the rear to prevent the ships movement?
Excellent reporting!
The lack of 'Common sense' in this investigation is simply amazing.
The biggest and best clue we have is that the mother was on deck with her infant child.
She would NOT have been out on the deck at 4 AM with her baby IF it was stormy outside. She was on the deck trying to sooth and calm her crying baby so the baby did not disturb the other sleeping guests. It was calm on deck when the mother went outside and a moment later the ship was hit with a violent gust of wind and quickly capsized and sank.
No one could have done anything to prevent it. Common sense tells us that if it was getting nasty and stormy with higher wind speeds the mother would have gone inside the cabin with her child. Instead, there was no time to get inside the cabin and she went overboard with her child because the event was sudden with no time to react. Sort of like being run down by a freight train you did not see coming.
Exactly. And the infant was by itself in the sea for a time.
However both the AIS and the captain of the other ship report that both ships were next to each other struggling for a little while, according to the AIS for about 16 minutes before sinking.
The mother was sleeping on the deck with her baby as it was very hot?
The mother and child WERE NOT on deck. The Captain went back on board (after being thrown off the ship by the knock down) to rescue her as the yacht was sinking.
@@allangibson8494 the mother stated clearly that she was asleep on deck. And got thrown into the water. Captain had nothing to so with it.
👍👍👍 .. a balanced report .. thanks.
I DEFINITELY APPRECIATE YOUR REPORTS ON THIS ACCIDENT. I MOST DEFINITELY DO NOT WATCH ANY NEWS REPORTS, FOR OBVIOUS REASONS. I APPRECIATE, FACTS AND THE TRUTH. AND THATS WHY I COUNT ON YOUR CHANNEL FOR BOTH . SO THANK YOU!
@@michaelflaxcombsr9095 you don't need to shout
@@J4ME5_ perhaps person has vision problems
There is a huge difference between 20 mph winds and a downburst. A downburst can get up to 150 mph. The captain was responding to a report of 20 mph winds. You then have the question of when the captain was able to acertain the true situation.
I do have a question on how well the AIS functions if the ship has significant heel.
Yes this is important. As is the amount of water (mass) in the wind.
Separately, do we have definitive answer yet to the meteorology question whether they experienced a downburst (water goes down) vs a waterspout (water goes up) vs an exceptionally powerful squall (water goes sideways) etc.
I suspect he didn't understand the true situation until the ship was hit and rolled.
@@irtnyc
I think the (Italian Air Force?) confirmed it was a down burst.
The yacht report confirmed this in an earlier video.
And when the down burst hits the surface it spreads in all directions and depending on the yacht’s relative position it could hit it with wind from a completely different direction and beam on.
"the question of when the captain was able to acertain the true situation. " I've been in microbursts - you have zero seconds to maybe a minute if you are able to see the winds hitting things at a distance and are far away. It's like a wind explosion!
Yep....heat is getting OLD..keep up the good work. Thanks
It seems that the captin knew what he was doing and kept to the procedures. I still belive that the the short keel vs the mast was the main issue, but this calls for the procedures to be revised.
It really depends on the awareness and preparedness of the Captain and crew and the awareness of the VIP guests and their position in the hull whereas if there is an ingress of water they were most likely to die?
Thank you. Very interesting update.
I wonder how much time passed between the sailor waking up the Captain and the crew walking on walls.?
@@jamesgarber-p3z About 10-15 mins from the storm onset to capsizing, based on when the ship begins to drift and when the data stops.
Probably 16 minutes or less? The boat should have been moored in the harbour and the guests in a hotel?
@@dianamincher6479 Did you not watch the video? No reason based on the forecast for any of that.
@@dianamincher6479 Nope - absolutely no reason to do so. Note that there were several other vessels moored outside the harbour, which was almost certainly full iin any case.
about 2 hours