What does a geophysicist say when they get an Earthquake prediction wrong? They say, "But it's not my fault." edit: Please stop posting about suspicious0bservers. I like to keep my joke threads free of pseudoscience and conspiracy theories. Thank you. ^_^
Agreed! Suspicious0bservers.org teaches how space weather effects earthquakes. Thier accuracy is amazing and they even have a "Disaster Prediction" app. Go SciShow!
I just discovered Dutchsinse last night as the Earthquakes in Nevada were were rocking me in my sleep and he's a pretty interesting guy. Apparently he's getting good at predicting earthquakes. Im keeping an eye on his channel to see how accurate he is.
I feel like I'm going backwards in education after watching this video. Dutch uses statistical data and patterns to forecast in a way that actually helps people real time instead of in 50 year increments. Don't expect academia to embrace it any time soon, but I prefer people who tell you how to do it yourself and why it works to someone giving me their "educated, degreed" guesses. :-/
dutchsinse Well, I would have never imagined you would have read my comment here. haha I was up watching your stream until 5 AM. I was so interested in your broadcast and the community you build is full of very lovely people. Respectfully, I always take things with a grain of salt. Been here on the Internet for a long time and you know that it is sometimes difficult to know what is truth and what is not. BUT, after the examples I have seen in the past 48 hours of your forecasts, I can safely say I'm fascinated. I am definitely going to stick around and keep up to date with your forecasts. I'm excited to learn more about your methods and looking forward to your next update. Have a great rest of the day. ^.^
I like the fact that it's being discussed now and not being waved off as an impossible ambition. And who knows Maybe we'll start to see less inside interference on Dutch's livestream.
Ah, the old TH-cam title switch-a-roo. www.reddit.com/r/nevertellmetheodds/comments/5kqvhz/goalkeeper_with_outstanding_reflexes_produces/dbr3wvw/?context=3
Matthew Davis Inflections and tone in someone's voice can tell a lot about a person. She comes off as shy, kind, and intelligent , and along with her body language, when she talks it's so cuuuute
Dr. Rebecca was wonderful! I live in Northern California. The concern about earthquakes is ever-present, but we're not always prepared to handle them. It's exciting to think that some day we might be quite good at knowing when they're going to happen. Any extra little bit of time to ready yourself and get to a safe place makes a massive difference. And Sandy is real cute!
Major earthquakes can always be detected 24 hours before the event, with a VLF radio receiver. The earth becomes immensely electrically active before a major earthquake, and its signals can be detected by radio.
Just had one in Romania and I felt it from 150 miles away. Was like someone was pushing me or the room itself forwards. When a big one hits, the country is gonna be in a lot of trouble
I think one of our big problems when it comes to predicting earthquakes with any precision is the fact that sometimes we don't realize where the faults are. I remember being a teenager when we had the Northridge Earthquake. I wasn't terribly impressed with it where I live because the Landers Earthquake was significantly stronger here. In any case, they discovered a new blind thrust fault as a result of that earthquake. A little over a month ago, we had the twin Ridgecrest Earthquakes. Ironically, I was actually looking at the most recent earthquakes when the first 6.4 earthquake hit. It was pretty mild here and I didn't realize it was an earthquake until it was basically over because I have a powerful fan that also shakes where I was a good bit. I figured out that it was an earthquake because it was shaking things in a different direction than the fan. It's funny because my cat wasn't even alarmed by that earthquake. Once I realized it was an earthquake, I went out into this hallway in the middle of the house that is pretty strong. My mom was out there too and she said she also felt the earthquake. A little while after that, it appeared on the recent earthquake list and map. I started noticing a pattern to the aftershocks in that it was bouncing back and forth from east to west. I thought that was odd but, at the same time, this is the first time that we have had a decent sized earthquake with the kind of technology for those of us who are armchair seismologists to observe in real time. I also noticed that, although there was at least one earthquake every minute, none of the aftershocks were as big as I had expected for an earthquake of that size. These things gave me a bad feeling about the progression of this earthquake sequence I have had several different jobs in medicine and have had the luxury of having the time to take a little more time with those patients who have given me the same ominous feeling. Every single time I've had that feeling, a life was saved and it's not because I did it personally, but because I happened to be able to take the time to observe the condition of the patient a little longer. Everyone around me at those times had the medical education that I have and more, but they didn't have the time even if they did have the same sinking feeling. I had that feeling after the 6.4. I didn't really do anything particularly different becasue I have been watching the local spread of small earthquakes in the area for decades. If anything, all I did was open my phone to look at the recent earthquakes more often. I was just about to get on my bicycle to go play my guitar downtown when the second 7.1 earthquake struck. The first thing that I thought was that we were finally getting the magnitude of earthquake that I would have expected from a 6.4 mainshock. I should have immediately gone to the hallway but it really only did a bunch of rolling here so I didn't go to the hall until it had been going on for a while so that I realized it was probably a bigger earthquake. The same cat who wasn't alarmed at the first earthquake was at the top of the cat tree this time and she still didn't really care. I was the first one to go there and my mom decided to get up from the other room and join me because the earthquake was getting really long, even though it never felt like more than mostly calm seas in a ship. We are over 100 miles away from the epicenter of either earthquake which is probably why it didn't shake that hard. I attribute the wavy feeling to the amount of uplift that also accompanied the right-lateral motion because all the earthquakes I felt from the subduction zone in South America had a very similar wave feeling. Anyway, I knew from the first time the 6.4 earthquake came up on the map that they were going to find a new fault with this one just like they did for the Northridge Earthquake because none of the known faults were long enough to even produce a 6. I told my mom that as soon as I looked at where that earthquake had happened on the map. If we don't know where all the faults go or at least we don't know the extent to which they stretch, we have no hope of predicting earthquakes with even the accuracy of a local weather forecast. I don't fault geologists for not immediately seeing where every fault in the world is so we should remember that we are all working with a set of data that is limited by our current knowledge. Also, sand boas are awesome. I reached in to find my friend's pet corn snake like that and took a bite. Of course it's no big deal to be bitten by non-venomous snakes. It's kind of the same sort of insult as being swatted by a cat who has been declawed (don't do this by the way); you feel the impact but it doesn't do you anything more than psychological damage.
A question for SciShow: When I delete something on a device (laptop computer, tablet, phone, ext.) does it actually delete the data? Does it some how disappear into nothing or is it still their, floating in space? We are talking about inside whatever device you are using; the components of the device where the picture, or whatever data you might have stored, is located and stored.
There is one area not far from where I live that has a noticeable earthquake pretty much every year, due to the land still rising after the Ice Age. Since the area in question is near a glacier, I'm wondering if it's "behind schedule" compared to the rest of the region. (I have not been able to find anything about the building codes in that area being stricter.)
So, both Hank and Jessi use "lay" when they should use "lie". Is this now considered standard usage in English? :) Just wondering because I took a long time to learn the difference when I was a kid and now it seems like natives don't care about it. Keep up the amazing content, by the way! Not trying to put your work down at all, just making a tiny linguistic observation because I am a language nerd! All the best!
So significant volcanic eruptions are forecastable unlike earthquakes, but can't an earthquake that rattles a volcanic area set off an eruption before it would otherwise go.
We should have about 100 more years if the past is any reliable predictor. But there is a new variable in the equation - fracking. Some faults have less tension because of a specific rock type (forgot the name) but others are being artificially triggered by fracking (people debate this but I think the evidence is clear now). So it's quite possible that if the Madrid fault does slip again it could be a minor quake, not sure about depth though.
that whole not prepared for earthquakes made me cringe thinking about all the drills Chile and Japan have to prepare for them. Chile and Japan have some of the best infrastructure when it comes to earthquakes as they have very frequent and intense earthquakes where half of the country could fall and it doesn't come to that. In Chile earthquakes are so common people just continue on with their day like nothing happened and all we hear in the video (which I thought would be 23 minutes of geophysics, not 10 minutes of geophysics and 13 minutes snake touching) is about SoCal and volcanic seismic systems like man, this could've been much more
Camila Stefanie Indeed, and here in New Zealand after loosing an entire city(Christchurch) we've been building cutting edge earthquake resistant infrastructure to rebuild the city hoping to avoid a repeat tragedy
Doctor Jew "that whole not prepared for earthquakes made me cringe thinking about all the drills Chile and Japan have to prepare for them." And that's pretty much where I was going with that. That her comment seemed out of place just because the US is incompetent at it. But then I went on to say that it seemed ridiculous that in a video titled Geophysics and Earthquake Predictions there as 10 minutes talk about earthquakes and the rest was pretty much just snake touching.
How does this snake breathe in the sand if it stands a lot in it? I presume there is some air in the top part of the sand but it should have some special adaptation to cope with the reduced air flow...?
You need to get Ben Davidson on here from Suspicious 0bservers. He would have some interesting things to add regarding the conversation about earthquake prediction. +Suspicious0bservers
My grandfather actually did give my grandmother a piece of his shed skin as a token once (he got horrifically sunburned and for some reason he thought this was a good idea to send to his girlfriend in a love letter) but they were married over 50 years, so who’s to say? 😂
You should interview Dutchsinse if want earthquake forecaster. He is very accurate with around 80%, regularly admits when he gets it wrong. He is becoming the place to go to for information on quakes.
I really admire how Hank has been able to make a career out of his interests, it makes me happy when people clearly do what they love
+
I like this lady. She sounds like someone who would be good for podcasts and getting people interested in things. :3
Interesting timing on this one. We just had a bunch of earthquakes over here in and around California this morning.
Nerfin Merfitt Those earthquakes were also felt here in Nevada lol
why is there a solid banana around my geophysics
I would love to have her as a professor. Her voice is so soothing
Thank you for teaching me this, i really appreciate that you took the time to make this.
woah woah a 23 minutes video...
*takes out snacks, pillows, blankets*
time to get educated son
Omg...the 3 of them are true science nerds. Love the shedding conversation. One of the best in the talk show series so far.
What does a geophysicist say when they get an Earthquake prediction wrong?
They say, "But it's not my fault."
edit: Please stop posting about suspicious0bservers. I like to keep my joke threads free of pseudoscience and conspiracy theories. Thank you. ^_^
Master Therion awww funny
#DADJOKES
Master Therion suspicious observers is already predicting earthquakes with excellent results look.him up. this real this is big
Agreed! Suspicious0bservers.org teaches how space weather effects earthquakes. Thier accuracy is amazing and they even have a "Disaster Prediction" app. Go SciShow!
Agree also, Suspicious Observers appears to be on to something.
I just discovered Dutchsinse last night as the Earthquakes in Nevada were were rocking me in my sleep and he's a pretty interesting guy. Apparently he's getting good at predicting earthquakes. Im keeping an eye on his channel to see how accurate he is.
I feel like I'm going backwards in education after watching this video. Dutch uses statistical data and patterns to forecast in a way that actually helps people real time instead of in 50 year increments. Don't expect academia to embrace it any time soon, but I prefer people who tell you how to do it yourself and why it works to someone giving me their "educated, degreed" guesses. :-/
dutchy the last capurnicus!
dutchsinse Well, I would have never imagined you would have read my comment here. haha I was up watching your stream until 5 AM. I was so interested in your broadcast and the community you build is full of very lovely people.
Respectfully, I always take things with a grain of salt. Been here on the Internet for a long time and you know that it is sometimes difficult to know what is truth and what is not. BUT, after the examples I have seen in the past 48 hours of your forecasts, I can safely say I'm fascinated. I am definitely going to stick around and keep up to date with your forecasts. I'm excited to learn more about your methods and looking forward to your next update.
Have a great rest of the day. ^.^
dutchsinse Btw, thank you for personally explaining that to me. I appreciate the sincerity and how respectful you are.
I like the fact that it's being discussed now and not being waved off as an impossible ambition. And who knows Maybe we'll start to see less inside interference on Dutch's livestream.
please put "talk show" in the thumbnail or title somwhere
Zac Cravens just opinions and little science. the people who watch and enjoy this are just as clueless
check the time stamp its always longer than the typical 2-5 minute video they are like 20 minutes long
+
i don't care, i watch anything they upload
oldcowbb your everything that is wrong with the world
Unexpected talk show! Yay! Honestly every single one of these is so cool and educational
Can you guys please put in the title that it's a talk-show episode?
Questionable Object +
They probably realized that talk shows dont get as much as views as the normal videos, so they did the old switcheroo
Ah, the old TH-cam title switch-a-roo.
www.reddit.com/r/nevertellmetheodds/comments/5kqvhz/goalkeeper_with_outstanding_reflexes_produces/dbr3wvw/?context=3
Is it just me or does Rebecca have an incredibly cute voice?
yep
Matthew Davis Inflections and tone in someone's voice can tell a lot about a person. She comes off as shy, kind, and intelligent , and along with her body language, when she talks it's so cuuuute
you should interview Dr. Brian Atwater USGS researcher studying tsunamis, continuing with the earthquake theme
Dr. Rebecca was wonderful! I live in Northern California. The concern about earthquakes is ever-present, but we're not always prepared to handle them. It's exciting to think that some day we might be quite good at knowing when they're going to happen. Any extra little bit of time to ready yourself and get to a safe place makes a massive difference.
And Sandy is real cute!
Loved the whole video, but that shedding conversation was awesome :-)
PinkChucky15 snakey
How could someone dislike already
Vandsaz Vinzani look at suspicious observer on the tube real info
Do you have a link
Yeah, I saw some of their video titles, but I'm still interested on what their take on it is.
Major earthquakes can always be detected 24 hours before the event, with a VLF radio receiver. The earth becomes immensely electrically active before a major earthquake, and its signals can be detected by radio.
I love so much those episodes, great host ! kisses from Belgium !
This snake is so pretty and cute, it somehow made me happy just watching it :)
This is perfect timing. We just had an earthquake a couple minutes ago.
Dutchsinse has been forecasting earthquakes for a while
Warching youtube at twice speed has changed my life for the better.
You always have the best guests. Would you consider inviting some past guests back who have made progress or have updates on their areas of expertise?
The snake shedding conversation took a turn... LOL!
funny we just had an earthquake down here on Cali
Andrew Agustin yup
Andrew Agustin hilarious
Cali has earthquakes everyday.
Just had one in Romania and I felt it from 150 miles away. Was like someone was pushing me or the room itself forwards. When a big one hits, the country is gonna be in a lot of trouble
So amused at how Hank goes all gooey the moment Sandy appears!
She's an amazing personality of a scientist. Love it!
Is that a Lego James Webb Space Telescope in the background?
I need an explanation as to why the skeleton behind Hank is not wearing any pants!!!
it doesn't have anything to hide?
It likes to show off its anatomy?
Lil bit of chemistry this time
***** ohhhh that's a good one! #shrekt
I think one of our big problems when it comes to predicting earthquakes with any precision is the fact that sometimes we don't realize where the faults are. I remember being a teenager when we had the Northridge Earthquake. I wasn't terribly impressed with it where I live because the Landers Earthquake was significantly stronger here. In any case, they discovered a new blind thrust fault as a result of that earthquake.
A little over a month ago, we had the twin Ridgecrest Earthquakes. Ironically, I was actually looking at the most recent earthquakes when the first 6.4 earthquake hit. It was pretty mild here and I didn't realize it was an earthquake until it was basically over because I have a powerful fan that also shakes where I was a good bit. I figured out that it was an earthquake because it was shaking things in a different direction than the fan. It's funny because my cat wasn't even alarmed by that earthquake.
Once I realized it was an earthquake, I went out into this hallway in the middle of the house that is pretty strong. My mom was out there too and she said she also felt the earthquake. A little while after that, it appeared on the recent earthquake list and map.
I started noticing a pattern to the aftershocks in that it was bouncing back and forth from east to west. I thought that was odd but, at the same time, this is the first time that we have had a decent sized earthquake with the kind of technology for those of us who are armchair seismologists to observe in real time. I also noticed that, although there was at least one earthquake every minute, none of the aftershocks were as big as I had expected for an earthquake of that size. These things gave me a bad feeling about the progression of this earthquake sequence
I have had several different jobs in medicine and have had the luxury of having the time to take a little more time with those patients who have given me the same ominous feeling. Every single time I've had that feeling, a life was saved and it's not because I did it personally, but because I happened to be able to take the time to observe the condition of the patient a little longer. Everyone around me at those times had the medical education that I have and more, but they didn't have the time even if they did have the same sinking feeling.
I had that feeling after the 6.4. I didn't really do anything particularly different becasue I have been watching the local spread of small earthquakes in the area for decades. If anything, all I did was open my phone to look at the recent earthquakes more often. I was just about to get on my bicycle to go play my guitar downtown when the second 7.1 earthquake struck.
The first thing that I thought was that we were finally getting the magnitude of earthquake that I would have expected from a 6.4 mainshock. I should have immediately gone to the hallway but it really only did a bunch of rolling here so I didn't go to the hall until it had been going on for a while so that I realized it was probably a bigger earthquake. The same cat who wasn't alarmed at the first earthquake was at the top of the cat tree this time and she still didn't really care. I was the first one to go there and my mom decided to get up from the other room and join me because the earthquake was getting really long, even though it never felt like more than mostly calm seas in a ship. We are over 100 miles away from the epicenter of either earthquake which is probably why it didn't shake that hard. I attribute the wavy feeling to the amount of uplift that also accompanied the right-lateral motion because all the earthquakes I felt from the subduction zone in South America had a very similar wave feeling.
Anyway, I knew from the first time the 6.4 earthquake came up on the map that they were going to find a new fault with this one just like they did for the Northridge Earthquake because none of the known faults were long enough to even produce a 6. I told my mom that as soon as I looked at where that earthquake had happened on the map. If we don't know where all the faults go or at least we don't know the extent to which they stretch, we have no hope of predicting earthquakes with even the accuracy of a local weather forecast. I don't fault geologists for not immediately seeing where every fault in the world is so we should remember that we are all working with a set of data that is limited by our current knowledge.
Also, sand boas are awesome. I reached in to find my friend's pet corn snake like that and took a bite. Of course it's no big deal to be bitten by non-venomous snakes. It's kind of the same sort of insult as being swatted by a cat who has been declawed (don't do this by the way); you feel the impact but it doesn't do you anything more than psychological damage.
A question for SciShow: When I delete something on a device (laptop computer, tablet, phone, ext.) does it actually delete the data? Does it some how disappear into nothing or is it still their, floating in space? We are talking about inside whatever device you are using; the components of the device where the picture, or whatever data you might have stored, is located and stored.
I GO TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MONTANA. Lol I was just so surprised to see her then realized Hank also used to live in Missoula.
Great conversation!
:D Thanks for this video! - Love a Geophys undergrad from U Waterloo!
Is it a coincidence that this video was uploaded after the giant Nor. Cal. earthquake?
:)) We just had an quake here, 2 evenings ago... nice timing :D
The scrooge McDuck comparison was greatly appreciated by me! :D
Thank you, very educational
Bless the Maker and His water.
Bless the coming and going of Him.
May His passage cleanse the world.
May He keep the world for His people
I would have called this episode Quakes & Snakes
Hank you are hilarious! Your going to be great dad!
I just came bake from Lake Tahoe and there was a 5.7 earthquake while I was there! What a coincidence far 😂
Hamburgo How did you like it here? haha
Josh Linder It was fantastic! I only needed more sleep :P
Hamburgo I feel the same way haha
"If it was, like, a token of your love to give someone your old skin." "This is the shed I first met you in." This is the best talk show.
you should continue this series with interviewing Ben Davidson.
Surprised they didn't mention the Pacific NW. Earthquake preparedness is a big topic over here.
that snake was so cool
snakes are such fascinating creatures
Still waiting on that geology crash course
I love you Hank!!!
An alien race that shed its skin and the rituals that developed around it would be a great science fiction story.
now i want one of those snakes
There is one area not far from where I live that has a noticeable earthquake pretty much every year, due to the land still rising after the Ice Age. Since the area in question is near a glacier, I'm wondering if it's "behind schedule" compared to the rest of the region. (I have not been able to find anything about the building codes in that area being stricter.)
Chapstick will help with the active faults on your lips FYI.
Regardless, one of the better articulated SciShow talkshow's!
I like her smile :-)
We just had a huge earthquake yesterday M6.3 OOOOOOO
So, both Hank and Jessi use "lay" when they should use "lie". Is this now considered standard usage in English? :) Just wondering because I took a long time to learn the difference when I was a kid and now it seems like natives don't care about it. Keep up the amazing content, by the way! Not trying to put your work down at all, just making a tiny linguistic observation because I am a language nerd! All the best!
haaaank! I missed you! they just need to fire everybody else. #LongliveHank
- Did you get her number?
I aspire to one day be on sci-show talk show.
Hawthorne, NV, earthquake 2k16: We will rebuild.
Sunburns ... people do shed skin already. We've got a pretty good idea what it looks like.
I couldn't sleep because I felt 3 earthquakes
"This is a shed I first met you in." OMG, thank god that's not our reality...
Can you explain the Returning soldier effect please??
So significant volcanic eruptions are forecastable unlike earthquakes, but can't an earthquake that rattles a volcanic area set off an eruption before it would otherwise go.
Interesting, I have been in an earthquake just yesterday...
Not much info about earthquakes, though...
8:53 The Dragon sleeps.
you alrdy know he smashin that
I just felt my first earthquake lol
i came here to watch a short video explaining what earthquakes are and how to detect them, but instead i got a 23 minute video of 2 people talking
I'd have liked to know what she knows about the New Madrid zone; that's about due for a devastating event.
We should have about 100 more years if the past is any reliable predictor. But there is a new variable in the equation - fracking. Some faults have less tension because of a specific rock type (forgot the name) but others are being artificially triggered by fracking (people debate this but I think the evidence is clear now). So it's quite possible that if the Madrid fault does slip again it could be a minor quake, not sure about depth though.
Sci Show ASMR
I am a physicist from Nepal I experienced 2015 mega earthquake.....
Maybe beliefs, BELIEFS, get in the way of standing back to observe and accept how they really work, or really are?
that whole not prepared for earthquakes made me cringe thinking about all the drills Chile and Japan have to prepare for them. Chile and Japan have some of the best infrastructure when it comes to earthquakes as they have very frequent and intense earthquakes where half of the country could fall and it doesn't come to that.
In Chile earthquakes are so common people just continue on with their day like nothing happened and all we hear in the video (which I thought would be 23 minutes of geophysics, not 10 minutes of geophysics and 13 minutes snake touching) is about SoCal and volcanic seismic systems like man, this could've been much more
Camila Stefanie Indeed, and here in New Zealand after loosing an entire city(Christchurch) we've been building cutting edge earthquake resistant infrastructure to rebuild the city hoping to avoid a repeat tragedy
How does talking about the infrastructure countries have in place actually go into the science behind geophysics and earthquakes?
Doctor Jew
"that whole not prepared for earthquakes made me cringe thinking about all the drills Chile and Japan have to prepare for them." And that's pretty much where I was going with that. That her comment seemed out of place just because the US is incompetent at it.
But then I went on to say that it seemed ridiculous that in a video titled Geophysics and Earthquake Predictions there as 10 minutes talk about earthquakes and the rest was pretty much just snake touching.
Question: how does the snake breathe when burrowed in sand? Do they hold their breath?
I was wondering that too, maybe once they've burrowed they stick their nose out?
Rebecca sounds like the younger sister in Bob's burgers.
Baby's first shed! XD
Either Dr. Rebecca is one of the most bubbly scientists of all time, or she was really feeling Hank.
Maybe it's because she's speaking about something she's passionate about.
Fun fact: Snake used to have legs, until it lied
Who, Lilith?
Don't forget New Zealand's fucked up fault line
Hahaha he said "BenDick"...lol
The predictions were "Ground Breaking"
i watch dutchsinse every day, he has a very high strike rate with predictions. is he the last capurnicus?
How does this snake breathe in the sand if it stands a lot in it? I presume there is some air in the top part of the sand but it should have some special adaptation to cope with the reduced air flow...?
Who else thinks of Tracy from toy story whenever they hear her voice?
She has A beautiful smile
what would the earth look like if it were made of distilled water
sorry, I meant oceam, not earth
How does Sandy breathe when she's under the sand?
What happens if you give it tongue?
the Electric universe is missing in this conversation
also, why doesn't the light from planets twinkle?
Pause at 0:13
You need to get Ben Davidson on here from Suspicious 0bservers. He would have some interesting things to add regarding the conversation about earthquake prediction. +Suspicious0bservers
My grandfather actually did give my grandmother a piece of his shed skin as a token once (he got horrifically sunburned and for some reason he thought this was a good idea to send to his girlfriend in a love letter) but they were married over 50 years, so who’s to say? 😂
You should interview Dutchsinse if want earthquake forecaster. He is very accurate with around 80%, regularly admits when he gets it wrong. He is becoming the place to go to for information on quakes.