Federal Reserve's Rate Hikes Are Not Over (Here's Why) | Joseph Wang & Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 9 ก.ค. 2024
- Can the Fed hike to 7 or even 8%? Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, senior analyst at Macro Hive, thinks so. Dwor-Frecaut joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, who share their outlook for interest rates and inflation in 2023. Dwor-Frecaut has worked at the IMF, New York Fed, The World Bank, as well as several hedge funds such as Bridgewater.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut's latest piece on Macro Hive Prime (moved in front of paywall for the benefit of Forward Guidance listeners): macrohive.com/hive-exclusives...
Joseph Wang’s latest piece, “Come Hell Or High Water”: fedguy.com/come-hell-or-high-...
--
Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter / fedguy12
Follow Macro Hive on Twitter / macro_hive
Follow Jack on Twitter / jackfarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter / forwardguidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter / blockworks_
--
This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
--
To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to www.macrohive.com/jack or use promotional code JACK at checkout at macrohive.com/become-a-member.... Offer ends February 20, 2023.
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:05 February Fed Meeting Debrief
04:28 The (Bond) Market Is Wrong
07:11 Fed Could Hike Interest Rates to 7 or 8%"
01:03 Joseph Wang on How High The Fed Will Go
15:46 Counterarguments To An The Uber-Hawkish Case
28:06 Curve Ad
29:10 Why Is Inflation Falling?
36:57 Are Financial Conditions Actually Tightening?
46:34 The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime
57:40 Quantitative Tightening "Come Hell Or High Water"
01:07:17 Yield Curve Inversion May Exacerbate
01:10:40 How Would The Fed Get to 7 or 8%?
01:14:45 Higher For Longer!
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. - บันเทิง
Joseph, what a great and kind introduction to Dominique. Classy.
"HAHAAAA JACK! You're trying to trap me"
😂 Love Dominique and I learn a ton watching her on macro hive each week
I see Joseph, I click and prepare to learn.
Thank God. Someone who understands the Real Estate market.
“balance sheets can absorb these increases.” - yea, right up until the stock market crashes and wider unemployment rises (layoffs already starting).
takes so much mental energy to understand Dom...
It’s because we’re used to tik tok logic
I used captions
When fed guy speaks I listen 👂
You guna need to because the other guest you can't understand 😅
@@Mathematics.is.perfect she’s clear for me.
So does EF Hutton.
Great to see Joseph back.
Excellent content. Keep up the great work ya'll.
“There’s something for zeh howx, and something for zeh dowvz”
Her accent is godlike.
You are entranced? Just visit France! In each voice you will rejoice.
Nobody has paid their student loans in 3 years. Billions on goods, houses, services, cars, etc. And there is still tons of stimulus programs available. Eviction moratoriums are still in place in many cities. The stimulus train has never stopped yet
Thanks Guys!
Superb. Thanks
Fascinating … brilliant !
Great show
Haven't started yet, but realizing this about to be when I listen to another set of intelligent bonafide experts tell me the countering to what the last set of intelligent bonafide experts told me.
Looking forward to the day when economics becomes a more settled science. At this point we're in the early stages in the grand scheme of things.
Great insights 👍
I wanted to hear them address the ability to service debt with continued rising interest rates. I keep hear people say that the Fed can't keep raising rates because of the debt burden. People use the term 'Catch 22'. I don't think Joseph or Dominique commented on that point. Perhaps they don't believe it's a real issue?
I agree with most of what is mentioned... However I've recently been given credit with "ZERO" verification. This is very worrisome. I'm sure I'm not the only one and there are many who are in worse financial situations. Reminds me a lot of 07/08
Just curious, what sort of credit product? BNPL, credit card, store credit...usually there's a verification in the background...that's co concerning for sure...
@@b.h.1205 credit card(s) and buying out a car lease.
@@b.h.1205 I don't know that guys situation but I am getting uptick in credit marketing as well.
Reminds me of milder version of George m Robinsons thesis ' the fed has lost its reaction function "
I'm not qualified to have an opinion.
Great show
I think she is wrong. Does she know that the interest alone on debt for US is gonna be over 1T
Loving this gal's accent -and commentary!
Great chat….. to be faded…
Lending standards in the latest surveys are being tightened at a near record pace. Loan demand in all consumer categories have dropped in the latest surveys with auto loan demand plummeting. The situation in bank lending is deteriorating rapidly as credit conditions are in flux to a greater degree than your commentary suggests Joseph
She is great
I express great displeasure and skepticism towards the entire concept of fractional reserve banking. Brigands and thieves. Off with their heads.
They are forgetting that a lot of business loans have variable rates which can be detrimental in the future
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia 🇦🇺 still watching this informative content cheers Frank
There is no debate about soft or hard landing after the Fed lets its foot off the brakes with persistent rate hikes. The savings of the working people are about to be depleted. To the consumer, persistent inflation, even at a "benign" 4-5% going forward, equates to bankruptcy. Like Larry Summers said, the economy is more and more resembling Will E. Coyote, as the rate hikes are clearly insufficient to turn back inflation, running at 5+% after a year of tightening.
Everyone talks Bout inflation going down but do not talk about the effects of inflation going up the last 2 years. Prices aren't going down, they just are going up slower.
Damn this woman is smart.
Non-supervisory workers are getting the wage increases so the increasing gap between median and average wages makes sense.
People borrow money to make more money if the interest rate is low
What about the fact that the CPI calc will be changing starting with the Feb 14 read for Jan. It will show steeper drops. If u can’t win the game u change the rules. The fed just moved the goal post!
Please tell me the name of the book & author on 'Central Banking" thank you kindly n. I found it very Interesting. Why is the crypto industry allowing 'Circle to pollute it with its centralization especially since it can freeze large amounts of its coins with the flick of a switch? Someone asked it to demonstrate that & they did. Is that not 1 of the things we all fear about government CBDCs. Plus since a lot of their funding is coming from the US Fed, ally governments, IMF Central Banks & WEF. Why is the industry not talking about this? If they are not careful Circle could end up owning most of it & DEFI will no longer be DEFI since it'll be controlled by the Middle Men!
ANL22T, ETH, and more would be great.
high inflation (or any inflation) is not sustainable, so is zero interest (or very low) rates!
itzzzzzzzz all in zeee data - could not resist
She should debate Jeffrey Snydner from Eurodollar University.
How can a market be right or wrong lol. The market is the market
BUY THE *ANL22T* AND HOLD THE LINE BOYS.
Or, they could cook the books on both sides of the Philips curve. Change how you account for employment. I mean 573,000 jobs created in one month with 500,000 added due to “demographic changes”. Also, the BLS has re-indexed CPI to a single year (2021) when inflation was already high, instead of two years. Watch reported CPI come down in the next CPI readout. Pass the punch bowl around.
Rich people are rolling in dough now but the working class is being crushed.
It is all according to the plan: the USA has become a neofeudal state.
thus as it ever was. I used to be poor. Was horrible.
So not correct. This communist ideas have no future.
24:40 meanwhile, dollar getting stronger today
Jeff Snider needs to be invited back to respond.
It seems like the bots have taking over the comment section. Too bad, i really enjoyed reading them.
I thought that was a man. Wang you know inflation is not coming down in 23 and even the fattest dove Daly said she knows the rate needs to be 5% in 23 and likely to go higher in 24. This market can't even handle 4%
ANL22T will do X2 maybe 3 max, you know it bro
The guest said "uuuhhhhh" way too much I could not finish the episode
We can run inflation hotter. 2% is a made up target by some NZ central banker. We will still be rational at 3-4%. Singapore had been running core at 5% for decades and kept its workers salaries blindingly higher. Everybody there now earns more than Americans across the board. How did they do this? They kept their foreign labor and maids salaries below minimum standards. We have a more dynamic and educated work force, let's run it hotter.
Can ANL22T be staked on Ledger?
No
ANL22T oNLY Few hours OLD !! IMAGINE THE POTENTIAL
Excellent content. I used the last dip to stock up, buying ANL22T now its cheap, can't miss the presale.
Dominique is completely wrong that we have had the lowest employment rate in 50 years. So many people have lost their jobs due to the anti-science C-19 "vaccine" mandates who do not show up in the unemployment numbers!
Truly love your candidness, I DCAed today again for BTC ANL22T and ETH
I'm DCAing in ANL22T as well. ETH heavier DCA and ALGO. I'm taking your advice and starting Google tomorrow with a 50 dollar purchase and continuing Microsoft and Apple. VTI and VOO on another app and longterm portfolio. Here we go family!
ANL22T, a pick with potential if they follow through!
She sounds like an end boss from Assassin's Creed.
Hell yes $ ANL22T. Going to have a huge Q4
Hope you are right
Listen to Joseph if you want the same narrative that is discussed at CNBC.. just saying…
Thank you for your research. I find your videos are well done. Will ANL22T hit 1000? Not sure but I hope so.
May never move from zero 🙈
DCA ANL22T and chill. You'll be obnoxiously rich in less than 5 years. What's 5 years among friends?
Uhhhhhhhhhhh
Powell seemed like he was on some downers, 100% serious, he seemed like he was on drugs. like homer in the simpsons x files episode. odd
Where is Jeff Snider when you need him? I'd like to hear his reaction to this video. Jeff Snider and Emil Kowalski vs Dominique and Joseph would be a great slug fest!
Agreed. Jeff comes off as a know-it-all which is hard to listen to sometimes, but I’d love to hear him debate his ideas against someone just as smart.
Emil bounced when Jeff brought in Steve Van Meter and for good reason.
I'd watch a roundtable with Jeff Snider, Joseph Wang, Tom Luongo and Bret Johnson
@@anonymousAJ no doubt. where are the debates?!? bring it on.
Would be a great debate but the timing of these needs to be discussed. They can all be right on different timescales and magnitudes
Exciting times for Amazon’s *ANL22T* and it's community.
Thank you for the update ANL22T is done right, and waiting is part of the process,
Imagine missing the Amazon ANL22T on-going presale, HODL STRONG the public sale about to explode
should you sell a little of ANL22T when you start to make a profit or just hold?
AMZ to the moon
Pretty surprised there was not 1 mention of the biggest driver of deflation over the past 20 years… technology. AI will decimate employment and demand.
And demographics as well
No, humans will just do non-menial jobs. 200 years of industrialization, automation, and computing and we are at 3.4% unemployment.
@@IT_Farhan 5 million people leave the labor force and unemployment goes down… you need to dig deeper bro 😎
We will rise with ANL22T and Matic!!! Just HODL
When I started the crypto process in 2017, there were few youtubers I trusted and you were one of them. This video confirms my impressions. As for me, I continue to DCA ANL22T.
Classic. Bond market is wrong by Joe Wang is right. Bureaucrats always right
Holy spam!!!
We'll see about that. I don't mind to see the crash. I just hope I'll have a lot of USDT to buy more ANL22T live presale.
So basically bearish on everything except amazon's ANL22T
Could you please talk about ANL22T it’s very strong and took off in short time thanks.
We need to fix the "IN GOD WE TRUST" on the Fiat Federal Reserve Note to be "IN GOLD WE TRUST"
Let's amend the Constitution - add something in there that says "No state shall make any thing but gold or silver coin a tender in payment of debt"
Boys is it best to invest in *ANL22T* monthly or weekly? I'm thinking the fees will be higher if done weekly.
You cant fight the ANL22T Fomo haha
BRO WHY ARE YOU NOT TALKING ABOUT ANL22T
I’ve heard Amazon is killing it with *ANL22T*
I've dumped all of my SOL- its toast for now. All converted to ANL22T and king BTC.
I already converted all my ETH to ANL22T, now I feel like moving all my BTC to ADA as well.
Can't deny the fact that Amazons ANL22T is the strongest bet to bring power back to this industry after we suffered FTX, Celsius, Tera and so on. Sure if they fail it's done for good, but I don't see that the biggest tech company in the world would put everything at risk just for that.
if ANL22T can grow organically like that they will dominate that industry
I'm still bullish on crypto. Buying the dip on great projects like Algorand and ANL22T 😎
I’m buying ANL22T on sale, waiting for BTC to maybe drop again before I add more. Hope to take some Eth profits by Sept proof of stake
You should buy ETH and ANL22T if you care about your future
Everyone waited for Amazon to create ANL22T and the time is ready
While everyone is focused on BTC, ETH or any top alt coin and playing defensive they are missing on quality projects that are about to be launched on CEX. For example ANL22T will hit mainstream soon, 10x-20x quite possible even during this bear market but only few people know about this.
I’d rather buy ANL22T, atom, polka and polygon!
I'm waiting on ANL22T don't like buying after it's already pumped, still buying btc
Hopefully ANL22T will do good.. have alil over 10million ANL22T coins
Thanks for deleting the spam bots, While I'm here though, ANL22T is the next moon shot for sure
Not sure about BTC and ETH, but putting USDT in ANL22T for 10x makes sense.
Stick with BTC, safer
WOW This may be the last time you can get ANL22T before it takes off 5,000%.
I bought 2500 ANL22T tokens, too. It will be great profit when it is listed for $2
I’ve been under since day one, (April 2021). When BTC was supposed to go to $100k, It didn’t. I’ve been buying and hodling ANL22T and i know my patience will pay off .
Been staking with ANL22T!
Good luck