Be ‘Absolutely Worried’ About Pretty Big Market Correction | Dan Niles
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 มิ.ย. 2024
- Dan Niles, Founder of Niles Investment Management, discusses valuations for the stock market indices, as well as the large tech stocks that will likely outperform or underperform.
*This video was recorded on May 8, 2024
Listen on Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/510WZMF...
Listen on Apple Podcasts: podcasters.spotify.com/pod/sh...
FOLLOW DAN NILES:
Niles Investment Management: www.nilesinvestmentmanagement...
Twitter (@DanielTNiles): / danieltniles
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For business inquiries, reach me at david@thedavidlinreport.com
*This video is not financial advice. The channel is not responsible for the performance of sponsors and affiliates.
0:00 - Intro
1:30 - Tech sector overview
3:44 - High valuations
10:27 - S&P 500 outlook
13:07 - Mag 7 stocks and leverage
14:10 - Google and AI
22:35 - Tesla and EV
28:25 - Nvidia
30:38 - Amazon
#stockmarket #tech #investing
Which is your favorite tech stock? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe!
FOLLOW DAN NILES:
Niles Investment Management: www.nilesinvestmentmanagement.com/
Twitter (@DanielTNiles): twitter.com/DanielTNiles
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I started selling my NVDA shares that I bought for $45 back in 2019 and i am sitting on roughly about $300k. Am i better off putting the money somewhere else or sit out and wait for a correction?
Well all i know is that you cannot go wrong taking profit at near high. No one ever went broke taking a ~10% profit. It's best if you consult with a fiduciary advisor to get informed buying & selling decisions
Agreed, After taking charge of my portfolio in early 2017, i stumbled into losses. Upon realizing that a change was necessary, I consulted a fiduciary advisor in 2020 and since then my $1.2m portfolio has gained 28% annually through restructuring and diversification using dividend equities, ETFs, mutual funds, and REITs.
Great gains there! Would you mind sharing the details of your advisor, please? I've started increasing my cash flow from my job and am looking to invest in stocks and alternative assets to build wealth over time.
She goes by ‘’Sharon Lynne Hart” I suggest you look her up. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
I recently sold some of my long-term position and currently sitting on about 250k, do you think Nvidia is a good buy right now or I have I missed out on a crucial buy period, any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks will be appreciated.
Palantir, ARM and Nvidia are all still good buy, but what do I know I’m not a financial advisor lol..
Exactly, I used to undermine the efficiency of a financial advisor until my wife company assigned her an investment adviser back in 2020 and tbh, it’s been the best financial decision I’ve made.
Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service? Seems you've figured it all out.
Tenley Megan Amerson . She is well known; you ought to look at her work.
I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.
Market highs can sometimes be followed by corrections, but predicting the timing and extent of it is challenging. I've heard some analysts talk about a 'massive' correction. It makes me wonder if it's time to adjust my $180k portfolio or maybe even consider some defensive investments.
I believe a healthy portfolio has 3 things, at the bare minimum: Exposure to ETFs for increased diversification, Exposure to assets that generate cash flow like dividend stocks, Exposure to market-leading tech.
De-risk your portfolios, shore up your core holdings, and take some profits while balancing your portfolio allocations. I’d also suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
Your advisor seems competent. Could you share how I can reach out to them? I've recently sold some property and am interested in investing in stocks, and I'm seeking guidance.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘'Rachel Sarah Parrish” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
But my question is what stocks can be the next APPL in terms of growth for the next decade? I've set asides 500k to invest and my goal is to retire comfortably rich.
Consider diversifying your portfolio with a mix of stocks and stable assets. Seeking professional advice now could provide valuable insights and strategies to navigate market uncertainties and protect your investments.
Agreed, After taking charge of my portfolio in early 2017, i stumbled into losses. Upon realizing that a change was necessary, I consulted a fiduciary advisor in 2020 and since then my 1.2m portfolio has gained 28% annually through restructuring and diversification using dividend equities, ETFs, mutual funds, and REITs.
That's a nice gain! How did you find a good one
I Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.
I started investing on my own, but I lost a lot of money. I was able to pull out about 200,578 after the 2020 crash. I invested the money using an analyst, and in seven months, I raked in almost 673,000
Inflation is not 3%.
Why do they keep repeating this lie.
Its 10%.
It doesn't matter what the true value is. What matters is what the Fed uses for inflation.
@@malceum
what they use are fake numbers
Yep. It’s out of their control. And nobody is telling the truth. Lalaland is coming to an end. They can only keep so long.
It’s double whatever the official numbers using pre 1982 CPI, CPI modified several times after ‘82. 3.5=7. Thus, 4th quarter growth was next to nothing after adjusting for ‘82 CPI.
10% is if u exclude energy and housing and food, because no one needs those. If you include everything than its more like 17-20%.
David, you're crushing it with the quality of guests you are getting....
I hope google has to go out of business. They suck.
Dan Niles is a legend. I’ve been following his work for years and he is a financial genius
He's not, but you're entitled to your opinion. You must not have invested in UBSFY (a Niles' pick when it was about 70% higher than it is now). He was pushing INTC in 2000 when it was higher than it is now. I could go on, but I won't.
What market views have you been asked to share on network TV since your track record is 100%?
Wow David, it's fantastic that you got Sir Dan The Wise🏆🏆🏆
Great guest David
Big fan of Dan Niles 🧠📈
The “ consumer” is in trouble. Wall Street has been living in a fantasy for sometime now. AI is a continuation of computer automation not as revolutionary as people think. Gonna of speed through large data base search -Lists and choices and decision trees and mimicking and copying and theft of work product too, marvelous. Maybe I’m missing something.
You are right. Clickbait grifters like these two like to exaggerate the "power of AI" as that's what is trending now. But in my experience AI results are not accurate in many cases, it's just not usable. Companies are not replacing workers with AI.
I can believe it impacting google. But I'm not sure it is that transformative outside industries that are already producing low quality crap, be it text, videos or images... Those will be impacted. A few will get some efficiency gains, but unlikely to displace people doing the work.
good job you got dan niles i am a fan
Great Guest David!!
Earnings are down because government free hand outs are gone, the free ride is gone
Great information, thanks!
That was a very good interview.
Dan Niles ALWAYS presents very intelligent and logical insights. Thank you for having him as a guest.
I've been working in IT for 25 years and found AI largely useless. Perplexity AI which is one of the better ones couldn't answer a simple question like 'what was the all time high for GDX?'. The others were no better. Significant changes come from hardware, not software. There has been no significant change in hardware for at least 10 years. The Internet and mobile were driven by changes in hardware.
Great guest. Super solid analysis and detailed explanation. I agree with his views on the magnificent 7. I really do believe that Nvidia is incredibly overvalued.
The NVDA bulls don't want to hear it, but yes, and it likely peaked in March.
Who is nvidia’s competitor? AMD is behind in AI and GPU performance. Intel is even further behind on AI and GPU. Nvidia might be overvalued with AI hype, but Nvidia should stay strong
@@superstar5123 It'll have competition later. Also it's sales and revenue will tank hard in the next great recession / depression, which is right around the corner.
@@superstar5123 I’m just saying that at some point the potential perceived growth of the technology and the actual technology will collide. Big companies will purchase all the chips they need and then hold off on purchasing more chips. You know what I mean? Like say you buy a ton of chips and then the next chip is released but it turns out to be a minuscule improvement of the previous chip and companies have less and less money to spend on tiny improvements - what if that happens for a year or longer? Does that make sense or nah? I hope we can have a civil conversation because I feel as though TH-cam comments can always get contentious and I’m not trying to be rude in any way.
More that of a problem the companies go bankrupt is that it goes slowly but steadily go down.
Great analysis 👏🏻
amazing. subbed.
Fantastic interview
I concur with the title of this video
Love that Niles is clearly aware of the limits of his knowledge despite being one of the most brilliant financial minds.
Always worth listening to Dan
I like Niles. #SmartMan
David’s guest quality: Superb
David’s comment section: Full of 🤖
Best show on TH-cam.
This guy is always so interesting!
I never understood how the herd assumed 6 rate cuts. I listened to the same messages from Fed as they did. But never heard that. Higher for longer, and possibly higher.
Exactly. I keep saying this to people. They don’t want to listen.
Can you share the speaker's notes?
Dan Niles is 🧠📈
This guy said buy buy buy, during the tech bubble.
ya he damn sure did
David, another great interview! Consider doing an interview of Scott Grannis aka Calafia Beach Pundit. Cheers!
I’ve yet to find a TSLA critic that understands TSLA.
It hasn’t been a car company for years now
So, if NVDA goes up more multiples, won't that make it worth more than the world economy?
Best guest
any interest rate south of 10% is a joke - see 1988
At best we do not know. Predictions of decline began last summer and have intensified yet it is holding for now. I will wait to actually see the event. By all means prepare, but don't get carried away.
So much A.I. spending... so little viable product being created with all that cash. Hype cycle near peak.
Dan Niles looks like your mission objective in the video game Hit Man.
i feel smarter having listened to this man, tomorrow AM , i will tune into CNBC and watch cartoons.......
Nice interview Tom Lee should be on short list too
This guy talking facts not a moon boi good video
Great segment, highly informative and common sense based thinking
where is the santori fund what happen DAN Niles
Everyone on here is always so bearish yet the market keeps going up.
It seems like ai is ultimately deflationary
Curious how that will be monetized in a debt based global economy
I'm shocked! David has Dan Niles who has completely missed this market he was often wrong as a tech analyst at Merrill.
Where did smiley David Lin from the Kitco days go?
Shouldn't the inflation target be 0%?
Open AI stole most of my Google searches, including image search.
All time high today for S and P 500 exactly the opposite of his guests’ predictions the last two years. Lin’s guests are great contrary indicators. If you want to be the smartest guy or gal in a room, you must be bearish.
A big market correction is what everyone is wishing and hoping for!!!!
Nvidia is way overvalued! Many gamblers are going to find out the hard way real soon.
dan thinks you are fucking wrong he is long
@@alshaw9420 Sorry about his luck!
David can you get Nile’s back and ask him HOW he has longs and shorts on and manages that successfully?
Dan's at least 3 to 5 months early with this statement and expectation......Good luck.
Something that bothers me about this range narrative about tesla is that they all repeat the same thing about range being a problem. We have 2 Tesla's and a wall charger at home, absolutely necer a problem for our day to day lives. We work 25-30 miles away from home, and we have a family, we drive everywhere in San Diego without charging wherever we go or at home every day. Most people go to the extremes with this narrative. Let me ask you, how many people do you onow that drive a 100k pick up with all the bells and whistles and are scared to get dirt in the bed? Or drive a 120k land rocer only to pick up starbucks and go shopping? Come on people, stop following and listening to people who repeat the same stuff. Right or wrong make your own decision. That being said i have a lot of respect for Dan Niles, and if oyur thesis is the stock doesn't reflect the company thats fine. And to your credit you did say "or for whatever the reason may be"
He has been saying this for a long time he will be right eventually
Tesla does not have a competition issue!
Apple is highly levered.
Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered. Everything didn't go "straight up "in 2023, I still own stocks that have NOT recovered from the market drop in 2022.
EVs will never work until we stop thinking as a society that we're going to have the same standard of living that we used to have. Think golf carts, not SUVs.
I gotta say this because not 1 talking head has understood this. He said stimulus savings are almost gone. THERE WAS NO STIMULUS SAVINGS TO START WITH FOR REGULAR PEOPLE. we never got enough to save. My rent was $1400 and Biden s check was $1200 how was i supposed to save??? Trump sent us a couple $600 checks. Wtf. The only reason savings went up was the college grads that make decent money didnt have to pay off student loans. Thats the only reasons savings went up. But who has a savings account anyway??
If rates go up in the current paradigm, I think punters will pile into the stock market because they will think thats the last hike before we go to cocaine party rate zero again.
This is just like the 1920s where everything was good.
i dont think people understand that ai is a sales pitch and not a product!
Dan has obviously not watched the Elon Musk documentary
we have to band together and stop paying income taxes at the same time in unison so theres safety in numbers and they cant retaliate against us
Im in the Buffet camp.. cash out and hold it.. Maybe GOLD
When has Buffett said that. That's never been his philosophy to cash out
@@johnschubert5664 The holding cash part , he’s not a gold bug, me neither but I hold some in “one gold”
Tesla’s PE ratio today is 44.5. This guy is literally 50% off and his comparison for Nvidia is 40’s. I still like his perspective but his data is wildly inaccurate.
Tesla makes cars but is an energy company first and foremost, this guys an idiot for failing to see that. They're even classified as energy within brokerages..... Some people are just so blind
Love Dan, but gotta disagree. Since 1937 when the 10 year has been between four and 5%, S&P has averaged 20 times earnings.
10 year should be significantly higher. Inflation numbers aren't right. PE is way too high
Hey I'm second! Woo hoo
I will NEVER buy an EV. They're environmental, infrastructure and economic catastrophes.
Whether you like it or not, there will be a time where there will be no combustion engine cars to buy
This guy doesn't want to click on 10 different links on Google but would rather just have "the answer". I wouldn't take advice from a man who wants to outsource his own thinking and judgement.
I use AI to see what answer it will throw back at me and it's useful but I would never take it as definitive. Once you allow that whoever controls the AI is controlling you...
Sorry David, enjoy your content but after years of listening I’m done. For one simple reason - too many ads. I listen to your videos while working. To have to skip an ad every few minutes is too disruptive. Good luck with future content.
Yea people get old you know. We don’t last forever. Maybe we can down load our selves into a cyber something or computer. Don’t download me into a Tesla Cyber truck though ,my current body has enough troubles.
I'll turn bearish when the majority of his guests are bullish.
No one with any knowledge in macro thinks the FED is raising rates. Why even mention what hacks think? This guy talks a lot and says nothing. You tried hard David, as always, but I think we leave this guy at a one time visit.
Headlines like this mean its time to buy … the fear mongers are getting desperate
This guy has been negative since last year spitting out the same narrative
Hey Nostradamus, The Dan got long last October
Tesla PE of 80? Ha! EVz are like Bitcon, going to zero.
David does not look well
Why not?
Yeah, he looks bloated and sweaty like me. Probably drinking too much.
Yes, and rich food and imported European princesses
Niles comes across as clinically depressed. Zero energy and no charisma
i can't stand this guy.
That is the stupidest advice one can give. Be 'absolutely worried'. What worrys you masters you
Not with bitcoin. Everything else yep it’s gonna burn hard & fast
Nonsense. Everything gonna rip so hard up from here then a massive massive crash when everyone thinks everything is great.
We still have way up to go before the crash.
Dot Com 2.0 Bubble
You going break Woke Davids heart about TESLA !
Market highs can sometimes be followed by corrections, but predicting the timing and extent of it is challenging. I've heard some analysts talk about a 'massive' correction. It makes me wonder if it's time to adjust my $180k portfolio or maybe even consider some defensive investments.
I believe a healthy portfolio has 3 things, at the bare minimum: Exposure to ETFs for increased diversification, Exposure to assets that generate cash flow like dividend stocks, Exposure to market-leading tech.
Well all i know is that you cannot go wrong taking profit at near high. No one ever went broke taking a 10% loss. It's best if you consult with a fiduciary advisor to get informed buying & selling decisions
De-risk your portfolios, shore up your core holdings, and take some profits while balancing your portfolio allocations. I’d also suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
Your advisor seems competent. Could you share how I can reach out to them? I've recently sold some property and am interested in investing in stocks, and I'm seeking guidance.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘'Jennifer Leigh Hickman” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.