You’re being watched RIGHT NOW and the only way to stop it is by using a VPN. Avoid hacks and protect your privacy before it’s too late! NordVPN offers 65% Off on a 2-year plan +4 extra months! Try it for 30 days or GET YOUR CASH BACK! nordvpn.com/davidlin FOLLOW DAVID ROSENBERG: Rosenberg Research: www.rosenbergresearch.com/ Twitter (@EconguyRosie): x.com/EconguyRosie email: information@rosenbergresearch.com
@@MasterRoss-sn7dlI'm going to trust green nut "climate change so the world is already boiled and dead by 2000" Al Gore religion believer Rosenberg instead.
When major consumer staples companies are talking about lowering prices, in an inflationary environment, pay attention to what is coming. Walmart has already stated they are seeing more high end consumers shopping in their stores. When the bottom falls out of the economy it will happen quickly, and the Fed's rate cuts/monetary response should make inflation/real assets go higher.
David Lin is the finest financial interviewer on TH-cam. Short pertinent questions, responds to what the guest is saying in real time, and allows us to hear the opinion of his guest without blabbering to show off his knowledge like most interviewers in this space
We Are in Unchartered Financial Waters! every day we encounter challenges that have become the new standard. Although we previously perceived it as a crisis, we now acknowledge it as the new normal and must adapt accordingly. Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2024, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
Keeping some gold is usually a wise decision. You would be better off keeping away from equities for a bit or, even better, seeking advice from an expert given the current market conditions and everything that is at risk with the current economy.
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst
My CFA ’Gertrude Margaret Quinto’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thank you for saving me hours of back and forth investigation into the markets. I simply copied and pasted her full name into my browser, and her website came up first in search results. She looks flawless.
inflation is only up on isurance according to this pleb, but commodities are up 7.6% YTD. His arguement translates to: '"if you just exclude everything from the inflation metric we have deflation"
@lexwielstra7605 which is what the govt narrative is going to be, which turns into the official narrative. They just fudge the numbers. Check out Rosenbergs interview with Gunlach
Lol 0%? These clowns really think you can just print forever. You can’t. Inflation is in charge. We can’t have 0% rates and 4% inflation because investors don’t lend money at a loss.
@@GF-hg7op For years we had rates below 1% without inflation. If you do not print massively, with current technologies and productivity gains we will be below 2%.
Groceries I am doing substitutions So replaced ribeye steak with chicken drumsticks Since I did a substitution there was no inflation That’s Bidenomics
@@sewnsew6770 Your personal consumer expenditures, PCE, the let them eat cake index, is zero. Now if everyone switched to cake, that would drop the PCE making the Fed happy.
7:18 Oh, now I get it. Thanks Mr Rosenberg. The price of basically everything you need has rocketed for its own very special reason, not at all _in any way whatsoever_ related to money printing, extreme government deficit spending, etc. A few things you don't need are still in the index and maybe they're falling in price because nobody can afford to buy them any more and when you look at those things, it shows there's deflation because everybody is actually getting poorer, except for those who can buy Picasso paintings.😂
It's sad how difficult things have become in the present generation. I was wondering how to utilise some money I had. I used some of it for e-commerce business, but that sank. I'm thinking of how to use what's left to invest, but I don't really know which way to go.
Yeah, things may be hard right now, but I've come to realize both bear and bull market, recessions and economic boom, all provide opportunities to make high gains, I used to call bluff on folks that bragged about making a fortune from such down-markets until I happened to do so myself
I agree. I've been working with a financial advisor since 2020, and I return up to 15k every month, and I don't even have to lift a finger. Although I also think the reason I make this much is because I started with significant capital.
Monica Shawn Marti is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.
I kind of interpret many post on here as acknowledging that we're reaching a market peak, in general, which is a well-supported thesis, and so if you've been sitting back chill while the gains roll in because bull market, well, time for traders to stay sharp, many are expecting volatility, probably a sharp downturn, smart traders should check their risk management is in shape, time to pay attention. The timing of his post vs what I know about the market supports that well enough. But yeah, the post could mean anything.....managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Sandy Barclays, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Exploring new investment opportunities demonstrates your proactive stance towards financial growth during these volatile times. Diversifying your portfolio can play a crucial role in effectiveIy mitigating risks..
If the market has taught me anything, it's that it always recovers, but I can't seem to focus on the long run, when major factors like my retirement and my reserve are wreaking havoc on inflation. I require a solid data trajectory and solution as soon as possible.
Sandy Barclays’s understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. Her siignals are top notch..
Throughout my involvement in various trading programs over the years, sifting through a wealth of information, I have yet to encounter anything that rivals the clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's like uncovering a diamond in a coal mine.
When Rosenberg interviewed Gundlach about two weeks ago, why didn't he challenge Gundlach on his cyncicism about the inflation figures and the method of calculation?
Rosey been saying this for 2 years now. Egg all over his face. Being that early is definitely wrong. You’ve made no dough listening to either of these guys.
Both have been wrong for over 2 years. David was long, long dated treasuries a year ago, which would have crushed your portfolio if you had listened to him. Sure, he makes sense, but he does not take into consideration that there is a lot of liquidity in the system. Inflationary forces are still greater than deflationary forces at his point. Does he think insurance costs are going down? Does he trust the US politicians to do the right thing???
@TexasRiverRat31254 Yes, I did not listen. I have heard him speak for years now, and he has been wrong. In fact, despite being wrong for > one year, when he said we were already in a recession and doubled down by scolding the people who did not agree with his hard landing thesis.
I don’t think he understands that the inflation and debt must continue or the system crashes. I believe it’s self evident that this debt is incurred from the war machine…
@@nohopeequalsnofear3242 Markets=Economy and markets doing good since then, people still buying assets, so it did work, when we go back to zirp and if markets do nothing, then it could be a problem.
@@bdek68 I've been trading for 25 years, I was around and you're a moron to think that it's genius in repeating word recession and depression for over +30 years and being wrong 99% of the time and right once.
I can imagine there will be a deflation when the credit system next melts down, its extent depending on how much money is or isn't printed to cover the losses of all the usual corporate and banker suspects. However, this guy is a total apologist for the current cadre of central bankers.
If you are old enough (which I seriously doubt) you would have been around for "the new economy". Turned out "the new economy" was a big, fat lie and the old, read real, economy crushed that bs.
I think he's's confusing deflation with demand destruction in some sectors because people can't afford to buy that crap anymore because the essentials have skyrocketd in price.
In my world, Demand Destruction comes - accelerates, and then outright massive real Deflation runs everything off the cliff. If you have a job left, only *then* will you be able to afford stuff again.
Health insurance is up due to the ACA. Specifically, the ACA changed the law to prohibit limits on prescription drugs. With no limits, pharmaceutical companies were free to develop drugs that cost $50k plus per month.
@@prolific1518 Monetary policy acts with long & variable lags. The insolvent government should support itself if it can, with $35 trillion in debt. How does the half-baked commie goverment support(!) the market, by buying shares, bonds, or?.. Last time I checked, they were trying to sell their debt on higher rates.
I bought a loaf of bread, 25 ounces of chicken breast ham, 3 onions, 3 tomatoes, and pickles for $35. These sandwiches can last me a whole week. I have a casino near me. They have condiments like ketchup, mustard, relish, and mayo packets at the food court next to the all you been drink soda fountains. I like to grab a weeks worth time to time.
Always like interviews with David Rosenberg. He always brings well thought out positions and a full ability to get them across so that you can follow the logic, even when he is wrong. That he admits when he is wrong is very high in my book for credibility.
Certain things never go down and have no impact on the economy? What? Normal people working paycheck to paycheck, or those trying to plan for the future, might disagree.
@@husamabed6527that doesn’t take away their point on this guy being completely wrong on almost every call for almost 4 years now. Go back and watch his predictions from 3-4 years ago. He was one of these “inflation is transitory” idiots.
That’s because you have an idiot that’s dumber than our president running your state. He’s in a panic about this stupid 25$hr minimum wage law that has backfired spectacularly and that was his 20th blunder in his term.
Auto insurance is up 30%-40% in California because the politicians told the insurance companies they can’t raise the rates on us working people to whatever they like as long as they don’t leave California!
He is totally right about Fed Officials heading for every camera and microphone they can find. They should all be prohibited from speaking in public with only the written report released from the meetings.
Exactly FED Powell talks about of both sides of his mouth. He knows he is stuck. If he keeps rates high for much longer everything is going to get crushed. If he cuts too soon we get hyperifnation. I have no faith he or anyone is smart enough to thread the needle. He doesn't either... which is why he is just stalling for time.
Nonsense. Demographics rule. Rates aren't coming down because they already can't sell their bonds. We're losing 1/3 of the work force to retirement so there's no one to lay off. Been saying the same thing for years
Anyone who mentions "commodity super cycle" is not a serious person. It's not useful investing advice, because interspersed in this "super cycle" are huge down turns, how you feel about your theoretical 2X return if oil or copper drop 60% in the meantime? And if you're going to tell me it's a "10-30 year" play, yeah good luck with that. Good luck predicting what's going to happen 6 months out much less 30 years. As recent as 2 years ago we were declaring ICE engines DOA.
Your guest is missing one key point about the bond market, supply. He's focused on the hope for increasing demand, based on this theory of either a slowing economy or falling prices, or both. What he's failing to realize is that with the borrowing needs of the U.S. Treasury so great, supply will continue to hold note and bond yields up. The recession (theory) may happen, but with that will come a weakening of tax receipts, which in turn will increase borrowing needs, and therefore the supply of notes and bonds. The bond market is a trap now, and there is no easy way out. I would rather own gem mint Pokemon cards than the TLT for the next twelve months.
Of course Food / Housing and Energy is used by nobody! I hate ignorant billionaires who cant tell what a pack of eggs or a gallon of milk cost. These are the most privileged and somehow the least knowledgeable people. How can someone sound so smart and know so little about real life.
Again one of the most fantastic question and answer sessions anyone could ever see on the internet this is beautiful stuff and it makes me think and that's what America needs to do not just America the world anyone with money needs to think and think about these things
With 0% borrowing the housing market is going to explode again and so will the rents. But don't worry as you'll be able to go to the bank and borrow money at 0% to pay for rent, right? Is this the point: you'll own nothing (ever) and be happy? This was the darkest economic prediction yet.
This bubble explained: -debt markets on life support, the name of the game has been and continues to be to delay price discovery on bad assets. How do you do that? Just ensure that the debt can be serviced. How do you do that? Make sure enough people with debt are getting a paycheck. Does it matter they aren't saving and have to cut back? No. It will only matter as soon as unemployment spikes which will trigger debt fire sales that coincide with foreclosures in private and commercial debt. The market also has obscene about of leverage in it, indicated by the velocity and height of the market. As he says, S&P eps has still not reached the 2021 high (adjusted for inflation) yet we find ourselves currently priced 20-25% above the close at the beginning on 2022. Leverage unwinding during distressed times leaves giant liquidity concerns and correlates with large volatility spikes. You thought 2022 deleveraging was rough, wait till you see what happens when the last Jenga piece, employment, goes in this market with the leverage and risk appetite we have now. The unemployment market never went in 2022. The narrative will change fast and the boomers will display once again that it was not different this time.
You'd think someone that knows a bit about bonds would recognize that the decades long bull market in bonds has likely come to an end. I try not to be bias.
I remember July 2008 like it was yesterday. I had put everything including my BMW in a double wide storage unit bc i had bought a round the World plane ticket and wouldn't be back till November. There was a gas station rt accross street from Storage park. I drove up to pump to fill my car up bc it was near empty. Gas in Vegas then had jumped to $4.50 gallon. I had the pump in my hand and then i realized it was a no brainer gamble that gas would be alot less when i returned. So i left my car in locker w just enough gas to make it back accross street before Thanks Giving. Sure enough by late November 2008 gas was $2 a gallon! Ha, i saved a bunch of money!
David, wonderful work AS ALWAYS! I would really appreciate if you produce a consensus of your macro guests forecasts to perhaps suggest probabilty ratio of uptrend or downtrend macroeconomic tendencies. Thank you for your excellent work!!
It is unfortunate that price will not be coming down for key goods and services which means the next gen are really screwed as they have digressed significantly in terms of years to recover in wages relative to current prices that will continue to rise a the normal rate going forward. Also, all the finance people are lying about 2% inflation over 30 years because it was actually 7% if you compare goods, services and buying power of wages over that period.
You’re being watched RIGHT NOW and the only way to stop it is by using a VPN. Avoid hacks and protect your privacy before it’s too late! NordVPN offers 65% Off on a 2-year plan +4 extra months! Try it for 30 days or GET YOUR CASH BACK!
nordvpn.com/davidlin
FOLLOW DAVID ROSENBERG:
Rosenberg Research: www.rosenbergresearch.com/
Twitter (@EconguyRosie): x.com/EconguyRosie
email: information@rosenbergresearch.com
David you are being watched as we speak with or without VPN
They can still see everything you do waist of money
I’m going to trust a tech company to protect my data lol
@@MasterRoss-sn7dlI'm going to trust green nut "climate change so the world is already boiled and dead by 2000" Al Gore religion believer Rosenberg instead.
If you subtract food, gas and housing, then inflation is practically zero! No problem.
😀
If you make 10 Million a year, food, gas and housing are peanuts.
You also need to subtract taxes and insurance. Those went up 10% and 20% year over year, respectively, for me anyways.
So everything that you need to buy.
When major consumer staples companies are talking about lowering prices, in an inflationary environment, pay attention to what is coming. Walmart has already stated they are seeing more high end consumers shopping in their stores. When the bottom falls out of the economy it will happen quickly, and the Fed's rate cuts/monetary response should make inflation/real assets go higher.
David Lin is the finest financial interviewer on TH-cam. Short pertinent questions, responds to what the guest is saying in real time, and allows us to hear the opinion of his guest without blabbering to show off his knowledge like most interviewers in this space
100% agree, extremely impressed
We Are in Unchartered Financial Waters! every day we encounter challenges that have become the new standard. Although we previously perceived it as a crisis, we now acknowledge it as the new normal and must adapt accordingly. Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2024, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
Keeping some gold is usually a wise decision. You would be better off keeping away from equities for a bit or, even better, seeking advice from an expert given the current market conditions and everything that is at risk with the current economy.
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst
@@mariaguerrero08Could you possibly recommend a CFA you've consulted with?
My CFA ’Gertrude Margaret Quinto’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thank you for saving me hours of back and forth investigation into the markets. I simply copied and pasted her full name into my browser, and her website came up first in search results. She looks flawless.
This guy is all over the place.
Yupp
inflation is only up on isurance according to this pleb, but commodities are up 7.6% YTD. His arguement translates to: '"if you just exclude everything from the inflation metric we have deflation"
@@simrans3675 he is trying to cover his tracks from terrible market calls the last 2 years
@lexwielstra7605 which is what the govt narrative is going to be, which turns into the official narrative. They just fudge the numbers. Check out Rosenbergs interview with Gunlach
@@joaminow6943 True. These macro doomers man…well, markets humble us all. Hope he comes around :-)
Who can afford a new car? People are now living in them!
Disinflation. There is no deflation.
Lol 0%? These clowns really think you can just print forever. You can’t. Inflation is in charge. We can’t have 0% rates and 4% inflation because investors don’t lend money at a loss.
You'll be soo wrong it's not even funny muhaha
@@GF-hg7op For years we had rates below 1% without inflation. If you do not print massively, with current technologies and productivity gains we will be below 2%.
@@ereneren4914 You can also smoke a pack a day for 50 years.. its not a problem until it is.
@@GF-hg7op Wrong like the clowns that were projecting 6 rate cuts in 2024?
@@jonathantaylor6926 then we got 50 years of more rallys woohoo! lol
My groceries are not deflating..
The only thing deflating in the supermarket is the size and quantity.
My rent isn't deflating either. And house prices in my area are up again, way over what was supposed to be the so-called "peak".
lol
Groceries I am doing substitutions
So replaced ribeye steak with chicken drumsticks
Since I did a substitution there was no inflation
That’s Bidenomics
@@sewnsew6770 Your personal consumer expenditures, PCE, the let them eat cake index, is zero. Now if everyone switched to cake, that would drop the PCE making the Fed happy.
I just paid 32 dollars for two burritos in Ohio for Christ's sake. These fools.
You're the one who paid...who's the fool?
You can make your own damn burrito sir.
Indeed. I recently took a flight to Muskat (Oman) in order to source grilled lobster for a more reasonable price@@genestone4951
One costs 24 in Switzerland, you‘re lucky, man!
@@foumar5217 false claim.
7:18 Oh, now I get it. Thanks Mr Rosenberg. The price of basically everything you need has rocketed for its own very special reason, not at all _in any way whatsoever_ related to money printing, extreme government deficit spending, etc. A few things you don't need are still in the index and maybe they're falling in price because nobody can afford to buy them any more and when you look at those things, it shows there's deflation because everybody is actually getting poorer, except for those who can buy Picasso paintings.😂
Rosie: "Just eat it."
D
Rosey has a poor track record.
He is a bear, their markets have been spare as of late.
Why are the books flipped towards the camera?
"I have books that I've never read in order to convince you to listen to me while I try to get new clients".
@@genestone4951 😂😂
Rentals haven't been subsiding, what is he talking about? past 3 years in EU rents are up 50-100%. These people are just lying without any shame.
Appreciate Mr. Rosenberg for his convictions and straight talk.
It's sad how difficult things have become in the present generation. I was wondering how to utilise some money I had. I used some of it for e-commerce business, but that sank. I'm thinking of how to use what's left to invest, but I don't really know which way to go.
Yeah, things may be hard right now, but I've come to realize both bear and bull market, recessions and economic boom, all provide opportunities to make high gains, I used to call bluff on folks that bragged about making a fortune from such down-markets until I happened to do so myself
I agree. I've been working with a financial advisor since 2020, and I return up to 15k every month, and I don't even have to lift a finger. Although I also think the reason I make this much is because I started with significant capital.
Please who is the consultant that assist you with your investment and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?
Monica Shawn Marti is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.
An excellent guest. Always a pleasure to listen to Mr Rosenberg's depth of knowledge.
Interest rates, like the price of bread, should be determined by the free market, NOT by a committee of college professors.
Lmao this is the funniest thing I'll read all day. Thanks lil buddy
That's what got us in this mess 0% rates are a joke, it helps banks, indebted companies and people who will die in debt
Let's not forget the biggest beneficiary of 0%: THE reckless GOVERNMENT. Borrowing at no interest expense.
Prices are still going up for everyday items and shrinkflation is out of control. NO WAY they are gonna cut rates.
Fed do exactly that which u think no way that can happen
It’s game over.
Why would they cut rates, if they're already smudging the numbers to make inflation appear lower?
Yer, they only have most of our money so far. Haven't stolen the little of it that is still left yet.
You are assuming a rational FED, a rational fiscal policy.
I kind of interpret many post on here as acknowledging that we're reaching a market peak, in general, which is a well-supported thesis, and so if you've been sitting back chill while the gains roll in because bull market, well, time for traders to stay sharp, many are expecting volatility, probably a sharp downturn, smart traders should check their risk management is in shape, time to pay attention. The timing of his post vs what I know about the market supports that well enough. But yeah, the post could mean anything.....managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Sandy Barclays, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Sandy Barclays program is widely available online...
Exploring new investment opportunities demonstrates your proactive stance towards financial growth during these volatile times. Diversifying your portfolio can play a crucial role in effectiveIy mitigating risks..
If the market has taught me anything, it's that it always recovers, but I can't seem to focus on the long run, when major factors like my retirement and my reserve are wreaking havoc on inflation. I require a solid data trajectory and solution as soon as possible.
Sandy Barclays’s understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. Her siignals are top notch..
Throughout my involvement in various trading programs over the years, sifting through a wealth of information, I have yet to encounter anything that rivals the clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's like uncovering a diamond in a coal mine.
When Rosenberg interviewed Gundlach about two weeks ago, why didn't he challenge Gundlach on his cyncicism about the inflation figures and the method of calculation?
@george "...cyncicism [cynicism] about the inflation figures..."
Probably because he doesn't disagree with him.
I'd like to see this deflation, because I can't afford a God dam thing rn
It means you're going to get fired and also the prices stay the same.
Just like the 1930s Great Depression, good times, if you and all your family can keep their jobs/customers.
Rosey been saying this for 2 years now. Egg all over his face. Being that early is definitely wrong. You’ve made no dough listening to either of these guys.
2? Lmao try 6
harry dent listened to him and now pulling a rickshaw in thailand. pad thai all day baby
When it hits it will be ugly.
Great guest and interview...thanks David.
He is pretty much aligned with Danielle De Martino Booth. Another one that talks absolute sense 👏
Both have been wrong for over 2 years. David was long, long dated treasuries a year ago, which would have crushed your portfolio if you had listened to him. Sure, he makes sense, but he does not take into consideration that there is a lot of liquidity in the system. Inflationary forces are still greater than deflationary forces at his point. Does he think insurance costs are going down? Does he trust the US politicians to do the right thing???
@@kealgu No, if you were listening he said insurance costs/rates are increasing... that is going up. Politicians lie to keep their position.
@TexasRiverRat31254 Yes, I did not listen. I have heard him speak for years now, and he has been wrong. In fact, despite being wrong for > one year, when he said we were already in a recession and doubled down by scolding the people who did not agree with his hard landing thesis.
I don’t think he understands that the inflation and debt must continue or the system crashes. I believe it’s self evident that this debt is incurred from the war machine…
@@steveletro4252 Danielle keeps me abreast of the latest Fed thinking.
I always enjoy listening to David Rosenberg's realistic (!) insights. Thank you for having him as a guest.
Doesn’t matter- we aren’t buying anything
Except Bitcoin!
If David Rosenberg keeps going, he's going to beat Harry Dents record of being wrong for last 30 years.
I think David is wrong.
They already tried zirp. It didn't work
Just because you missed a math class
@@nohopeequalsnofear3242 Markets=Economy and markets doing good since then, people still buying assets, so it did work, when we go back to zirp and if markets do nothing, then it could be a problem.
He was the only economist that called the GFC recession! You must have been in kindergarten
@@bdek68 I've been trading for 25 years, I was around and you're a moron to think that it's genius in repeating word recession and depression for over +30 years and being wrong 99% of the time and right once.
I can imagine there will be a deflation when the credit system next melts down, its extent depending on how much money is or isn't printed to cover the losses of all the usual corporate and banker suspects.
However, this guy is a total apologist for the current cadre of central bankers.
"No Market For Old Fundamentalists"... love it
If you are old enough (which I seriously doubt) you would have been around for "the new economy".
Turned out "the new economy" was a big, fat lie and the old, read real, economy crushed that bs.
Rosenberg solid analysis. David Lin been working hard much respect
fun fact: 90% of economists are wrong most of the time
And so were the feds
Transitory and they always are looking back and are always late.
Which is why I made my own wise moves based off of my own educated predictions the past 4 years. 98% of Economists peddle government and corporate bs.
Good point.
If that was true, would be very easy to make money, all you would do is take the other side of them
87% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
I had to double-check the date on this, as he was saying the same thing this time last year. Eventually he might be right. Eventually. Or not
My favorite guest. Super smart and coherent.
YET... often wrong
Prices will still go up until most of us break!
My two favorite Davids. Excellent interview and guest. Thanks guys!!
Excellent questions by David Lin
If we go back to the zero bound….lord help us all.
I think he's's confusing deflation with demand destruction in some sectors because people can't afford to buy that crap anymore because the essentials have skyrocketd in price.
In my world, Demand Destruction comes - accelerates, and then outright massive real Deflation runs everything off the cliff.
If you have a job left, only *then* will you be able to afford stuff again.
What about financing the deficit?
They have to sell debt to pay off old debt. Eternal wars are inflationary as Martin Armstrong says
Health insurance is up due to the ACA. Specifically, the ACA changed the law to prohibit limits on prescription drugs. With no limits, pharmaceutical companies were free to develop drugs that cost $50k plus per month.
Great point!
Stock markets are not about the earnings, they are about the money supply!
What?!!!?
they are about money supply / fomo / hysteria / mania, yes...... untill its not.
the correction always comes, ALWAYS, it's ony a matter of when
The money supply has been shrinking while stocks go up so no. It's about government supporting the market.
@@prolific1518 Monetary policy acts with long & variable lags. The insolvent government should support itself if it can, with $35 trillion in debt. How does the half-baked commie goverment support(!) the market, by buying shares, bonds, or?.. Last time I checked, they were trying to sell their debt on higher rates.
@@prolific1518 Do they buy stocks or bonds?
Thank you, David, for bringing David on board.
Who setup his book shelf before this interview?
There very damn few things most of us buy that are “deflating”
Why would we have a recission when the government is deficit spending $2 trillion per year?
Watch the video.
Wrong until he isn’t…. Michael burry was also wrong for 2 years, until he wasn’t
1.2 T is debt interest
The recession will come when they cut rates. This is fiscal dominance
It is not productive spending
One bag of groceries cost me $80 today.
Stop eating
Eat Cake 🎉
I bought a loaf of bread, 25 ounces of chicken breast ham, 3 onions, 3 tomatoes, and pickles for $35. These sandwiches can last me a whole week.
I have a casino near me. They have condiments like ketchup, mustard, relish, and mayo packets at the food court next to the all you been drink soda fountains. I like to grab a weeks worth time to time.
@@1HeatWalk you’re basically confirming their comment if you’re getting your condiments for free from your local casino.
@@1HeatWalk what is chicken breast ham?
Always like interviews with David Rosenberg. He always brings well thought out positions and a full ability to get them across so that you can follow the logic, even when he is wrong. That he admits when he is wrong is very high in my book for credibility.
david rosenberg and david hunter should have a convo with david lin.
Certain things never go down and have no impact on the economy? What? Normal people working paycheck to paycheck, or those trying to plan for the future, might disagree.
Rosenberg has been wrong for so long now lol.
Yes, like Gary Shilling. He has been a bear for forty years. Meantime the S&P 500 has gone up ten X.
He is not a bear, but explaining how the cycle functions, and assets price rotation. 😂
He's too rational
Until things pop. Then he'll look like a genius.
@@husamabed6527that doesn’t take away their point on this guy being completely wrong on almost every call for almost 4 years now. Go back and watch his predictions from 3-4 years ago. He was one of these “inflation is transitory” idiots.
Mr. Rosenberg is just pure class.
classy but wrong
Never trust this guy, proven misleader
I live in NYC, I see prices go up for everything, and I see people shopping a lot, stores are full. I do not see deflation.
Credit credit credit. Buy now pay later.. we are headed for a Great Depression and a completely new financial system . CBDC
United States citizens have 450 billion more credit card debt added in last 3 years with highest credit cards rates ever sooo .
Agree! People are shopping and eating out in Kansas City. Also, There's a lot of construction going on.
@@dabomboo7o Heresy Financial tweeted out that 55% of American Households have no credit card debt probably thanks to Dave Ramsey.
@@dabomboo7oright...the consumer's "ace in the hole", and it's literally a hole.💯 Credit=debt. The end!
Rates going up.. not down..
Wrong
We're in severe economic recession here in California, it's painfully obvious now 😢
@Air Do the governor and the president agree with your statement? If not, who should I believe, you or them?
That’s because you have an idiot that’s dumber than our president running your state. He’s in a panic about this stupid 25$hr minimum wage law that has backfired spectacularly and that was his 20th blunder in his term.
44:12 He's saying you won't be foreclosed on if you have equity in your house? How does that work?
We need a deflationary spiral as the fiscal reset.
I don’t think the government would allow it. Tax receipts would plummet
Auto insurance is up 30%-40% in California because the politicians told the insurance companies they can’t raise the rates on us working people to whatever they like as long as they don’t leave California!
He is totally right about Fed Officials heading for every camera and microphone they can find. They should all be prohibited from speaking in public with only the written report released from the meetings.
It allows them to micromanage inflation expectations. Problem is they stick their foot in their mouth too often
I remember the good old days when we measured Greenspan's briefcase thickness.
Exactly FED Powell talks about of both sides of his mouth. He knows he is stuck. If he keeps rates high for much longer everything is going to get crushed. If he cuts too soon we get hyperifnation. I have no faith he or anyone is smart enough to thread the needle. He doesn't either... which is why he is just stalling for time.
Nonsense. Demographics rule. Rates aren't coming down because they already can't sell their bonds. We're losing 1/3 of the work force to retirement so there's no one to lay off. Been saying the same thing for years
We're not even thinking about thinking about raising rates... Then the fastest rate increases in history happened after
I believe peter shift said that!
Confidence trick, gotcha'!
Why would they cut rates, if they're already smudging the numbers to make inflation appear lower?
That's funny, "You don't buy for the interest, you buy for capital appreciation of bonds" did we all forgot who you finance with T-Bills 😂
How can deflation intensify when it didn't even start?
I must be going to the wrong grocery stores...
where is the ‘Monumental Rally’ part? I cannot find it 😿
“Flexible” CPI? Like when you take out all the things that all people need every day? 😂
Anyone who mentions "commodity super cycle" is not a serious person. It's not useful investing advice, because interspersed in this "super cycle" are huge down turns, how you feel about your theoretical 2X return if oil or copper drop 60% in the meantime? And if you're going to tell me it's a "10-30 year" play, yeah good luck with that. Good luck predicting what's going to happen 6 months out much less 30 years. As recent as 2 years ago we were declaring ICE engines DOA.
Your guest is missing one key point about the bond market, supply. He's focused on the hope for increasing demand, based on this theory of either a slowing economy or falling prices, or both. What he's failing to realize is that with the borrowing needs of the U.S. Treasury so great, supply will continue to hold note and bond yields up. The recession (theory) may happen, but with that will come a weakening of tax receipts, which in turn will increase borrowing needs, and therefore the supply of notes and bonds. The bond market is a trap now, and there is no easy way out. I would rather own gem mint Pokemon cards than the TLT for the next twelve months.
Of course Food / Housing and Energy is used by nobody! I hate ignorant billionaires who cant tell what a pack of eggs or a gallon of milk cost. These are the most privileged and somehow the least knowledgeable people. How can someone sound so smart and know so little about real life.
If nothing breaks, why to cut rates like by 50%?
Again one of the most fantastic question and answer sessions anyone could ever see on the internet this is beautiful stuff and it makes me think and that's what America needs to do not just America the world anyone with money needs to think and think about these things
The proverbial broken clock, only that, some are right once every 20Y.
After ~20% inflation in 3 years, why does some disinflation scare people?
Job lose , job pay increase stoped . Most likely stage flation
disinflation is not the same as deflation
We will see. I can’t see interest rates dropping to 0%.
I'm shocked.
With 0% borrowing the housing market is going to explode again and so will the rents. But don't worry as you'll be able to go to the bank and borrow money at 0% to pay for rent, right? Is this the point: you'll own nothing (ever) and be happy? This was the darkest economic prediction yet.
In the real world rend and paying a mortgage is your main expense so it’s entirely reasonable to be Center stage in the CPI calculations.
Cutting prices? Disinflation? Thats dis-gouging… they could have dropped these prices years ago.
All I hear is pump my assets no matter what the cost.
NOPE
Finally, David gets the direction of the things right! 👏🏻
The whole Fed should watch this.
This guy didn't say anything worth a 💩
This bubble explained:
-debt markets on life support, the name of the game has been and continues to be to delay price discovery on bad assets. How do you do that? Just ensure that the debt can be serviced. How do you do that? Make sure enough people with debt are getting a paycheck. Does it matter they aren't saving and have to cut back? No. It will only matter as soon as unemployment spikes which will trigger debt fire sales that coincide with foreclosures in private and commercial debt. The market also has obscene about of leverage in it, indicated by the velocity and height of the market. As he says, S&P eps has still not reached the 2021 high (adjusted for inflation) yet we find ourselves currently priced 20-25% above the close at the beginning on 2022. Leverage unwinding during distressed times leaves giant liquidity concerns and correlates with large volatility spikes. You thought 2022 deleveraging was rough, wait till you see what happens when the last Jenga piece, employment, goes in this market with the leverage and risk appetite we have now. The unemployment market never went in 2022. The narrative will change fast and the boomers will display once again that it was not different this time.
You'd think someone that knows a bit about bonds would recognize that the decades long bull market in bonds has likely come to an end. I try not to be bias.
I agree with Rosy on most things but I don’t agree with the disinflation on food and housing which last time I checked is pretty important
Great job you did for us individual investors!!!!
I remember July 2008 like it was yesterday. I had put everything including my BMW in a double wide storage unit bc i had bought a round the World plane ticket and wouldn't be back till November. There was a gas station rt accross street from Storage park. I drove up to pump to fill my car up bc it was near empty. Gas in Vegas then had jumped to $4.50 gallon. I had the pump in my hand and then i realized it was a no brainer gamble that gas would be alot less when i returned. So i left my car in locker w just enough gas to make it back accross street before Thanks Giving. Sure enough by late November 2008 gas was $2 a gallon! Ha, i saved a bunch of money!
great interview , thanks
David, wonderful work AS ALWAYS! I would really appreciate if you produce a consensus of your macro guests forecasts to perhaps suggest probabilty ratio of uptrend or downtrend macroeconomic tendencies. Thank you for your excellent work!!
"Deflation" 🥴 *I* *WISH* 😲🤯😱
Alot of people will loose jobs
@@cultleader3572 I hope nominal prices start to finally come down either way.
Oh dear. Not the brightest bulb in the pack
The road goes on forever and the party never ends.😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
What happen to the price of gold during deflation ?
Higher as fed lowers the Interest rate to neutral like 2%
Rosenberg is strong when he is talking about Bonds! not so when commenting on Equities!
It is unfortunate that price will not be coming down for key goods and services which means the next gen are really screwed as they have digressed significantly in terms of years to recover in wages relative to current prices that will continue to rise a the normal rate going forward. Also, all the finance people are lying about 2% inflation over 30 years because it was actually 7% if you compare goods, services and buying power of wages over that period.
Well, 4.7% for a 20$ loaf of bread...I don't know about that. Thought provoking installment, David. Thanks.
Thanks Rosenberg, I’ve been buying TLT since 2023 (October), and made my 11% capital gain by year end 😂 Now, buying again since April 2024