‘Severe Downside’ This Summer Says Fund Manager Who Called 2008 | Hugh Hendry
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 พ.ค. 2024
- Hugh Hendry, former Founding Partner and CIO of Eclectica Asset Management and host of the ACID Capitalist Podcast, gives his outlook on markets and the biggest macroeconomic shifts moving in the world. Eclectica Asset Management returned 31% in 2008.
*This video was recorded on April 17, 2024
FOLLOW HUGH HENDRY:
Website: hughhendry.com/
Twitter (@hendry_hugh): / hendry_hugh
TH-cam: / @hughhendryofficial
FOLLOW DAVID LIN:
Twitter (@davidlin_TV): / davidlin_tv
TikTok (@davidlin_TV): / davidlin_tv
Instagram (@davidlin_TV): / davidlin_tv
For business inquiries, reach me at david@thedavidlinreport.com
*This video is not financial advice. The channel is not responsible for the performance of sponsors and affiliates.
0:00 - Intro
1:13 - America is playing the role of China
9:25 - BoJ and the Yen
13:50 - Yield curve
20:30 - Fed pivot?
23:50 - Risk off
28:20 - Bitcoin
31:10 - Shorting a currency
33:54 - Goldilocks scenario
36:47 - AI and growth
44:00 - Dedollariztion
46:35 - BRICS currency
49:30 - Hugh's investment philosophy
#economy #investing #stocks
Is this correction in the stock markets going to continue and "flail out of control"? What do you think? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe!
FOLLOW HUGH HENDRY:
Website: hughhendry.com/
Twitter (@hendry_hugh): twitter.com/hendry_hugh
TH-cam: www.youtube.com/@HughHendryOfficial
great ep ! cool perspective
Did you ask him about how he blew up his hedge fund?
I can’t tell if this is a spiritual journey or a financial video. But I’m here for it.
both
Money is #Sacred. A tool of measurement one earns for their labor and mind.
#Inflation is #LaborTheft.
Sound money -PMs & NonETF bitcoin in self custody . #hodl
#Equity #Solidarity
It's interesting you say that. My mentor, Van K Tharp (recently deceased) approached trading in exactly those terms. You might be interested in his books.
@@TheDavidLinReportright. 😂
Very intriguing. More research to fact check this.
When did the lead singer of U2 start giving financial wisdom?
One love, but we're not the same, we got to, carry each other, carry each other... One
That guy has made more money in markets than all of us here combined...
when did you see musician giving reviews on concert and on singer,song writer and super star .
Both a couple of arses who just got lucky. Bono made some good music though, even though he is a bit of a twat.
Well Bono's a billionaire, and he didn't make all that sending food to Africa
It's funny how many people discount this guy just because he's not in a suit. Hugh has made obscene amounts of money in the market, it's not just a little wealth, that dude is rich
Precisely! The fact is he is living the life in the Cayman Islands.
@@briget3456St. Barts
@@briget3456😊
😊 what a genius and 😊
Since we came off the gold standard in 1971, Economics can be called the study of making things up as you go along.
Very funny. And unfortunately true to some extent anyways.
At our expense. NotBest
Since the early mid 30s the united states was on a gold in theory standard, not a gold standard. Do your research
@@stanminna1761 what is different? wortless paper anyway. removal of silver and copper from the coins in 1963 after JFK was taken out was turning point. Jews used to fill barells of canadian pennies for melt back in the day
@@stanminna1761 Semantics. Ever since Treasury figured out we'd work for fiat and they could just print. We've been robbed.
One of more coherent Hugh Hendry interviews!
Congress is for sale. On the take. BOTH PARTIES. And Congress mandates the Federal Reserve. What could go wrong?
Yessssssssss for sale 💯
It's been that way since the beginning of time LOL
You mean the fed mandates the congress senate and president
It's the other way around. The fed controls congress.
The biggest bidders are israel and now china has learned from them in the past 20 years.
I'm available for a chat Friday, and I'll wear a shirt.
Buttoned or unbuttoned? It's important.
Tits oot!
@@kiwicam6419
Depends on inflation.
More inflation means shirts with fewer buttons
😀
Hugh Hefner always wears a dressing gown. Even in the office.😂 Interesting intellect.
Besides, it's hot in St. Barts.
Wear a con artist costume (blue suit).
If you compounded at 7% over last 30 years, congrats, you've just caught up to simply holding gold and not even having to do any work
If ever, over a decades long period, broad equities indices do not outperfrom an asset that doesn't do any work (like gold sitting in a safe somewhere), that's an incredible indictment of the economy as a whole. "You had all that money and you accomplished what?". I believe total returns with reinvested dividends on S&P 500 since 1990 is around 9% and for Nasdaq it's around 14%.
Hugh Hendry is one of my favorite people ❤️
You must be his supplier of "substances." lol
I'm 16 minutes into this and this is all-time great content. HH's ability to zoom out and give a wide, historical perspective is unique. His ability to articulate the most complex opinions raises it to yet another level. Congrats on this David. I'll probably need to watch this 2-3 times to digest what he's saying!
Indeed!
Yes, listen but be critical. Useful nuggets, but also quite a lot of BS Blarney stone.
Don't confuse approval with lack of critical thought. Hugh Hendry's value doesn't lie in the fact he gets everything right but in his ability to give a clear analysis of different markets in different asset categories, in different regions and knit them together to form a coherent narrative @@williamwilliam5066
Me too. This was brilliant. He has me thinking about risk assets in a new way
Severely honest guest, breath of fresh air
David is a very good host and asks the questions that the viewer really cares about. Listen to almost all these interviews.
Gouvernement deciding what industry is important is a BAD thing. Since when did they ever called something correct.
Been watching Hugh since the early 2000s. A brilliant mind. His timing though practically always off to years off. Timing of course is everything in this business.
Being early is the same as being wrong
Agreed, plus some of his rationale can be considered 'over thinking' certain matters. Markets aren't that intelligent. They can only process one thing at a time in risk off environments. If Fed cuts, DXY weakens, risk on is given a boost, Yen strengthens, EM gets a boost. If Fed cuts by a lot, this would imply a greater crisis in the US econ, which by extension would imply trouble for the global economy, so ditto but risk off prevails and EM is softer initially before rebounding in late 2025 or 2026.
@@klmn2000 Wow, an astute market observer in the YT comments. That's new! I think you nailed it. At the end of the day herd theory explains a lot as well. One algo sells, all the others follow if the first one is big enough. Bots more or less already are for trading what FSD is for driving.
Keep Crushing David💥🔥
There s this place called Russia- its having a war in Europe- The US in printing money to fund the Ukraine-
Russia is part of OPEQ and the US is not... what could possibly go wrong ??
Japan has no oil- where does it oil come from?
Where does most of the oil and gas from Europe and India come from ?
6 stocks run the US stock market- what could go wrong?
Bitcoin is a notional asset class, it has no commodity exchange value other than notional monetary exchange- what could go wrong?
And you forgot the Gold Standard - the deflationary period when normal people became more secure and wealthier.
I don’t mind making “money” off bitcoin. Every time there’s been a nice run up, I sell and turn it into cash. I like bitcoin, it’s made me some decent money, but it doesn’t work unless there’s internet connection.
The US isn't printing money for Ukraine. The US annual economy is 25,360 Billion (latest figures) and the Ukraine aid this year is 61 Billion. Notice that makes it a fraction of one percent. And 80% of that "aid" doesn't leave the US but is fiscal stimulus for US manufacturing while Ukraine gets old equipment made 30 years ago and new shells because the US stopped making shells in volume a long time ago.
If you understand Hugh Hendry's talk much of the money printing is occurring outside of the US through the Eurodollar system in places like Tokyo and London. The world works nothing like how you assume it works.
Traders after they have been too successful and spend their free time doing mushrooms because they don’t need to work.
You really need to zoom in on the gold chart to see the gold sell-off in 2008. It’s funny how HH cherry picks his time series to describe the performance of gold. Who is married to their beliefs?
Ffs every mf called the 08 crash (apparently) 😂
On god bro! Lmaooo it’s so funny seeing that as such a common title 😂
Nobody like Harry dent lol
He has proof of it. His fund had massive returns that year and he himself is worth a lot of money from markets. It’s not that everyone called it, it’s that the people that did are well known for it and sought after for interviews, so that’s who you see on TH-cam.
@@joshtri2067 , Peter Schiff called it.
Perfect example of survivorship bias
David, a very insightful report and guest speaker. Cheers, Mate.
This is like listening to a wino rambling in a bar
True, I had the same experience in Greece 30 years ago.
And years later you find out he was right.
true dat
@scottosborne8735
That He was right but this He is not ...not all winos are created equal
Great interview here from David with the incomparable genius Hugh Hendry. Not too many ads this time too which made watching much more enjoyable. More like this pls! 💯
Very well structured, great rhythm, perfect questioning, combined with an intelligent guest who's been around the block. Congrats David 👏
Are you his mother or father? I learned nothing from that arrogant guy.
My boy hugh hendry! Thanks david!
Glad to see he still has a little humility and admitted his TLT trade was wrong.
We can all learn from others, Hugh is unconventional to say the least but When he speaks i listen and always learn something... I recommend others do the same, He is extremely intelligent, Thanks David and HH
Why gold? Because for BRICS+ nations, the USD is no longer tenable as the only global reserve currency. Parallel alternatives are needed.
Neutral Reserve Asset is what Luke calls it
Never going to happen. Exporters want to weaken their currency to be competitive. Why do they need a currency when they are happy to deal in the Eurodollar market? On the margin it will strengthen gold and Bitcoin and a few BRICS currencies from time to time but the long term trend is against you.
No one ever mentions the 36 trillion dollar deficit and annual deficits of 2 trillion. I. The very near future 100% of tax receipts will just pay interest on that debt
All of us have already been in the 100% tax bracket for a long time.
That's all everyone seems to talk about. This is all sheepie thinking. The US dollar will roll on strong for decades to come and the solution for investors is to look at trends and buy Bitcoin, stocks, gold etc but only when trending...
Only Europeans and Americans think being a "consumption based economy" (materialistic society) is a positive thing.
I guess that's why China is so desperate to increase consumption as a percentage of GDP.
Yeah because other nations fail to become that kind of economy, China tried and now clearly failed as the inner consumption have collapsed
Yes consuming is terrible if we all stop consuming we wouldn't have humans and that would be
I think you need to take the word "Europeans" from that sentence surely?
Consumption...at other people's expense.
But now those other people are wondering what the IOUs are worth.
Bitcoin 😂😂. Just tried to send $8.59 of Bitcoin. Fee was $89. Also told it would take 30 minutes.😮. Indexed Money laundering
Wait 1 week. The Runes goofballs have clogged the network.
Use lightning.....
You're behind in your bitcoin knowledge. For such a small transaction you shouldn't use the main chain. Lightening (various apps) or Liquid (the Aqua app) would be more appropriate OR just US stablecoins.
@@scepisle4970 If all 80 yo widows can’t figure it out, it isn’t feasible.
@@casamurphy see above 👆👆👆
One of the best Hendry interviews
July cut is exactly what Dr Benjamin Cowen is theorizing. It makes sense to me as I expect unemployment is going up in the next 2 months. Layoffs are picking up speed fast
That’s my guy also
Layoffs have exploded since last year. Severance pay has kept people out of the unemployment data. So many people have been stuck in the gig economy since the plandemic so they aren't counted as unemployed either. This entire house of cards is about to face a tornado.
@@prolific1518 idk about a pandemic, but agree the Warn notices are on fire
Maybe. It went from 3.7 to 3.9, then back to 3.8. The trend does seem it's going up, just very slowly given how strong the economy is. Whether it accelerates is unknown, it rising is a basic fact though. It's rising but in a healthy manner. I will agree that it's hard to control though once it spirals.
@byduhlusional I do not believe their Numbers. Look around. Inflation, REAL inflation, is around 15% right now.
And the dollars are banned in foreign countries. And at home the dollar has about 2 cents Value. Theft. Civert.
Love this guy. What a great and unique points of view he is bringing. Very interesting persona definitely not boring to watch. Thank you for bringing him in.
Always enjoy seeing Hugh on YT!
Just wish it was on rumble instead. Yt is a fascist
Best interview you’ve done. This guy is an absolute legend. 🔥
Lol I thought you were interviewing bono from U2 looking at thumbnail😂
That would have been a more insightful interview.
His vision and depth are unparalleled. Love his unconditional touch too.
Thank you gentlemen, refreshing interview. The more different type of substantiated views, the better forecasts we can make.
Just took some peyote and mushrooms and watched this video. Thanks David
Hendry is just a showman. Interesting to listen to but offers little of actual value.
He is always talking a crisis yet non comes and he loses out always. An old relic he is.
Overrated
Eventually he'll be right, and when you get a trade like that right you get PAID.
Yep, just rambling guff
His take on gold was idiotic. That or disingenuous. Talks about gold from 1980 to 2002 getting massively outperformed by the stock market but not how from 2002 to now gold has massively outperformed the stock market. He would be more right if there was no such things as hyperinflation, if the US government is wasn't crumbling around us under the weight of massive corruption. If there wasn't ww3 around the corner, he'd be right. I'm sure when the SHTF he will scurry off somewhere and hide with what money he as left.
Fascinating. Great to hear other opinions and Hugh definitely leaves a lot of food for thought. Great pod!
Hugh is a legend
Yes in his own mind
Superb job David. Many thanks. Another excellent interview.
your very humble man for somebody who accomplished a lot:)) :))
A Legend, and credit to you for bringing him in!
One man's notoriety..... Is another man's Fame...
Well done🎉
David, you always get interesting guests. I haven’t seen Hugh Henry for awhile. Mr. Hendrey is always interesting and smart!
Its always great to listen to Hugh’s insights 👌
Best interview yet! Acid!
Great interview thanks 😊😊
Hugh is decades ahead of the macro. His leading explanation describing decades of Macro was flawless and digestible.
hes full of sht!
This is my first exposure to Mr. Hendry. He has a powerful understanding of history and, at the same time, current global trends. I really appreciate his ability to self reflect and overall comments on the market. I also enjoyed watching Hugh making David laugh so much.
entertaining AND educational! these are the guests everyone wants
Love this guy. His adjectives are way more accurate and properly than any US traders and investors. Love it.
What a fab interview. Needed some reality and humour with great knowledge
I love the amazing minimalist decorating style of the room he is in. I like his rambling too, you can tell he is a bit of a philosopher as well as knowing his stuff.
Hugh. Always interesting. Not always right.
David's hair is back under control or almost. Hugh didn't get the memo about the dress code but that's ok I liked this interview
Wow, David you had an E.T. on. Amazing how much these advanced civilizations have to share with us. Fantastic really.
Brilliant, refreshing, entertaining
Hugh is pretty awesome. Great interview!
He is telling TLT is the asset to have since month 🤡
Thanks for the advice! I'm new to financial planning and wasn't sure where to start. Any tips on finding a reliable financial adviser or resource to guide beginners?
As a beginner, it's essential for you to have a mentor that is verified by finra and SEC to keep you accountable. I'm guided by a widely known financial consultant Stacey Macken
Wow, I'm supprised Stacey Macken is being mention here. I started off with 5K.... Now with massive portfolio highly recommended...
I met Stacey Macken at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.
Her reputation already speak for her $ 150K last Month.
Though I started with as low as $13,000 actually because it was my first time and it was successful, She's is a great personality in the state
Hi David please enable the clip button so we can share portions of the show. Lots of great stuff.
Hugh is great! Been following him for a couple years now. 😊
Always enjoy Hugh's rantings and ravings!
Thank you for an interesting interview.
He said he got 7% / year for just 15 years. How much would a vanguard index fund have gone up in those years? 15 years is a short term. I didn't get anything from his video.
Get out, are you going to trade against Ai thats a thousand times smarter than you , buy gold before these gangsters steal all your money.
You don't fight against the AI, you use it.
Fantastic interview
Bravo Hugh! Nice to see you again!
1913 was the cause of 1971
And the answer to 1984 is 1776
I think Hugh tries to hard to say something and ends up saying nothing, I find myself hoping for some interesting tidbit or some point of view I havent considered but leaving disappointed.
fantastic discussion
Hugh is one of the few people who truly understand money! 👍
Please more out of the conventional establishment opinions like this one ❤
FED= James Bond
Well done intelligent interview
Great interview
that was a lot of fun. Thanks David
This guy is hilarious! Love it! Refreshing!
Hugh's knowledge is IMMENSE
I wouldn't give this guy $1
Amazing commentary on Japan.
Trading. Surfing. Markets. Windsurfing. Talks to David. A cocktail at sunset. He’s living the life.
An entertaining man. Smart. Wouldn't trust him with my capital however.
This was 🔥 thank you guys!
This guy called 2008 like DiMartino called 2023.
DiMartino didn’t call anything. She just laid out the obvious facts and macro which are a complete dumpster fire. She was right about everything
@@bdek68 Oh, for sure. Right about everything. 🤣🤣🤣
As opposed to running your mouth tell all of us what she isn’t right about
@@bdek68 Looks like someone got triggered. DiMartino was 100% wrong on her recession call. She did not get one thing right. If this, right now, is a "complete dumpster fire," you better hope recession never comes knocking on the door.
@@free-qe6wxyour are full of shit😂I’m assuming Biden supporter😂
Hugh looks like JPowell if he decided to go live on an island instead of run the FED
Finally someone good. Boo to GarethHolloway!!!
Beareth.
I have the same dilemma. I cant fathom another currency to replace the Dollar. For those who say Gold and BTC, I see an upside down pyramid. I love your guest today. He took me on a financial spiritual journey to the other side. Please have him back soon.
Hugh's explanation of the reason to short Yen, gave me a lot of confidence in the trade and I was very early probably one of the first on Fin twit talking about that trade.. Now it's on everyone's radar.. USD/JPY
I wanted to not like this guy but he’s smart and pretty cool! Haha. Thanks for the interview! 🍻
Hugh at his best.
I had to watch this 2x to really get what Mr. Hendry is saying. He is a complex thinker and dreamer. There must be a lot going on at the same time in his head 😊
I feel like I got spun around a few times and now I don't know which direction north is.
Does anyone know what kinda glasses those are?
If you have to ask - you can’t afford them.
Lol
I was wondering that the whole interview-
I want them bad now.
Just to F with everyone.
Hugh today not on drugs. Nice to watch and listen! 😀
It annoys me everytime a host asked if BRICS will come out with a new currency for their group. THEY DON"T NEED TO. They are trading amongst themselves using their OWN CURRENCIES. China is already doing that with some ASEANS countries. India is buying oil from Russia with Rupee. Priced in USD, pay with their own currencies following the current exchange rate. That phased out USD all together.
So let's say China is buying commodities from Russia and is paying Russia in Chinese currency. Do you think Brazil is happy accepting Chinese currency from Russia when Russia wants to import stuff from Brazil?
And to what implication? This trade still keeps the US dollar at the center of the trade because both currencies are denominated in dollars and, why, because there is no liquidity in the other currencies. They still want dollars but this is a good sovereign solution for the buyer and it makes it the problem of the seller to then get it back into something they want: trade goods from the other nation if possible and otherwise use the currency with another trading partner or on the open market and either way expect a haircut. I think you assume that this weakens US dollar hegemony but it really doesn't. It addresses a lack of US dollar availability or affordability. Check out the Eurodollar system.
@@joythought Yes Eurodollar. Yes Jeff Snider. Yes Brent Johnson and his Milkshake Theory. All those system are Dollar centric due to DEBT that are USD based. They hone in on that bcoz USD had been widely used and accumulated since 1945 to be the "gold standard" for international trade. USD becomes entrenched in the global monetary system.
However, fiat money is still fiat money. It is based on trust. Two nations honour their commitment to deliver promised goods and services based on currencies they deal in. Breaking away from USD is when you can still get actual GOODS (Commodities and Final products) with other fiat currencies.
My family buy products from China and sell in Malaysia. Before covid, we had to convert our Ringgit to USD to buy from China. NOW, we convert our Ringgit directly to Renminbi (Chinese Yuan) to purchase Chinese products. What happened? Because China and Malaysia had an agreement and currency swap between countries. Each holds the others' currency and balance the account yearly or quarterly with that money. The pricelist or "menu" is still in USD but not single dollar was used in our transactions. USD is out.
Sure Malaysia and China still need USD for some imports but it a transition and it takes time. Euro$ is good for present and immediate future. So speculate in stocks, commodities etc base on Euro$ centric outlook. But the world is getting tired of USD and moving away from Euro$. We don't need BItcoin or gold based currency or a completely new currency to trade. We are doing it now our own currencies.
@@joythought Yes Eurodollar. Yes Jeff Snider. Yes Brent Johnson and his Milkshake Theory. All those system are Dollar centric due to DEBT that are USD based. They hone in on that bcoz USD had been widely used and accumulated since 1945 to be the "gold standard" for international trade. USD becomes entrenched in the global monetary system.
However, fiat money is still fiat money. It is based on trust. Two nations honour their commitment to deliver promised goods and services based on currencies they deal in. Breaking away from USD is when you can still get actual GOODS (Commodities and Final products) with other fiat currencies.
My family buy products from China and sell in Malaysia. Before covid, we had to convert our Ringgit to USD to buy from China. NOW, we convert our Ringgit directly to Renminbi (Chinese Yuan) to purchase Chinese products. What happened? Because China and Malaysia had an agreement and currency swap between countries. Each holds the others' currency and balance the account yearly or quarterly with that money. The pricelist or "menu" is still in USD but not single dollar was used in our transactions. USD is out.
Sure Malaysia and China still need USD for some imports but it a transition and it takes time. Euro$ is good for present and immediate future. So speculate in stocks, commodities etc based Euro$ centric outlook. But the world is getting tired of USD and moving away from Euro$.
I love Hughs accent. And like whats he's saying too.