Jon, thanks for all of the interesting info in this video. I have a couple of thoughts: Going from a "Workhorse" description to LFP chemistry is quite a jump. I expect "Workhorse" means that it will be high volume and used in many vehicles. Four different vehicles are listed which supports my view, IMO. Elon and Drew have mentioned in past quarterly earnings calls (after battery day, but many quarters ago) that the 4680 format is not right for the "physics" of LFP chemistry. My best guess is that they are referring to the flat voltage vs. SOC curve for LFP. That makes cell balancing not work well between cells wired in parallel. Note that most (all?) LFP packs don't have cells wired in parallel. Instead they use large cells that are wired in series only. This supports my guess, IMO.
I could see the Powerwalls done in the USA going to tesla made LFP also. They don't need 'high performance' since they are more bulk storage than immediate need high power application.
Silicon Carbon is not the same as Silicon. Yes they both contain silicon but the structure of the granules are different. Silicon Carbon is engineered to have room for expansion inside the granules.
The higher power density 4680 batteries type are unlikely to be the LFP battery type? Also the Tesla Cybertrucks and Semis will be the key demand drivers for the higher power density 4680 batteries, at least during the initial period of the 4680 battery production ramp?
@@HourRomanticist gen3 is not out yet... But CleanerWatt says he thinks that Tesla has already been adding a small amount of silicon in gen2 4680. Just went back and watched the limiting factors video and he did say there was no detectible silicon in the anode
Cylindrical LFP wastes a lot of space compared to prismatic. Other companies are already building prismatic LFP into structural packs, (BYD Blade for example).
Initially the report was cathode sorted will be in vehicles 4th quater this year. Then first quater next. Then second qyater bext. Now middle o next year which means 3rd quater. A year late even after they solved it. This must be hellova problem to solve 😮
It takes 2 years, according to panasonic, for panasonic to stand up a new factory using a know format and chemistry. Tesla has built a new factory, launched a new form factor, is developing a new manufacturing process and dealing with chemistry research, all at once. Battery companies expect it to take 12-18 months to develop and validate any change in a battery. Most companies take on just 1 new development at a time. Tesla is eating the whole elephant at once. The fact they have gotten as far as they have this fast is impressive.
aren't unnamed sources supposed to be ignored? Simply put, many of us bought in all those years ago, on the basis of what we heard on battery day (as the ones with the most/best batteries will likely win) and it's been a bust, let's be honest
Panasonic is making 4680 with the same wet process they use on everything else because they don't dare take on dry process and new form factor at the same time. They won't be in volume production, according to panasonic, until NEXT year. Cybertruck is being built with 4680s made by Tesla now. How is 4680 a bust?
You said "there's a reason why (not only because of battery supply) the Plaid uses 18650" .... Lucid uses 2170 and has even more performance than Plaid so I do not think your performance hypothesis holds water unfortunatly.
The performance on both cars is limited by the discharge rate of the cells, which is about the same for both. Saphire has about 20 percent bigger battery pack capacity and about 20 percent more performance. Smaller cells are easier to cool, that´s just simple fact. Why switch Plaid to 2170 when the car was designed for 18650 and it wouldn´t make it any better?
@@michalfaraday8135 If it... "wouldn't make it better" then... 🥁🥁 there is no performance advantage to 18650 anymore, they are equal. They are not going to update it because they really dont care about MS MX anymore and will just let others fill the high end luxury segment since Tesla is not a luxury brand and will continue down market.
@@TheLastMoccasin what Mr Faraday say is true though, Plaid would have had the same 20% increase of power by making the battery pack 20% larger, and I think Lucid is in a point where they can press the battery a little extra for a shorter life just to be in the frontline til they actually manufacture a decent amount of cars per year.
@@jonasgranlund4427 Lucid Air sales might start beating Model S at the rate things are going... but Tesla will lump Cybertruck into that category to prevent us from seeing 🤷
@@jonasgranlund4427 Lucid is not manufacturing constrained either as suggested, they are demand constrained since charging 800V cars at Superchargers is a bad experience and all the other networks in the US are still garbage.
They did, but stopped making them in late 2023. Only the ct uses 4680s currently that tesla shows publicly. 2170s, lfp blade+prismatic catl cells are in the semi and model 3&Y, powerwall 3 and the megapacks are exclusively lfp prismatic from catl. 18650s still go in just the model s&x. I bet the new 4680 variants shuffle a lot of that around in the next 12-18 months though. 🤔
Kind of sad that their demand has fallen so far that they haven't been cell constrained for years at this point. That used to be the limiting factor to their growth for a long time. 😥
Way bigger risk on Nov 5. Musk & Tucker doubled up with sardonic laughter. Elon has put all eggs in this basket. Consumer demand won’t be the problem, Court demands will.
@@iandavies4853 Yup, and the American people loose either way. The corrupt stay in power no matter which side of their corruption coin lands heads up this time. Sad times.
WTF are you talking about ? production is ramping at tesla, they need every cell they can get, what happened in the broader market was the OTHER major OEM's cancelled large battery orders pushing down prices.
@@seancollins9745Tesla had plans at one point of 50% year over year growth. Now they are aiming at nesrly flat sales year over year. At the very aggressive growth path (before Elon pivoted focus away from increasing unit volume) battery supply would have been a challenge. But with basically flat sales battery supply is challenged primarily by moving the battery type as opposed to volume.
Jon, thanks for all of the interesting info in this video. I have a couple of thoughts:
Going from a "Workhorse" description to LFP chemistry is quite a jump. I expect "Workhorse" means that it will be high volume and used in many vehicles. Four different vehicles are listed which supports my view, IMO.
Elon and Drew have mentioned in past quarterly earnings calls (after battery day, but many quarters ago) that the 4680 format is not right for the "physics" of LFP chemistry. My best guess is that they are referring to the flat voltage vs. SOC curve for LFP. That makes cell balancing not work well between cells wired in parallel. Note that most (all?) LFP packs don't have cells wired in parallel. Instead they use large cells that are wired in series only. This supports my guess, IMO.
I could see the Powerwalls done in the USA going to tesla made LFP also. They don't need 'high performance' since they are more bulk storage than immediate need high power application.
THX JON 🔋🔋🔋
Silicon Carbon is not the same as Silicon. Yes they both contain silicon but the structure of the granules are different. Silicon Carbon is engineered to have room for expansion inside the granules.
It is well known that the problems with 4680 were solved a couple months ago - reason why they volumes have been ramping up significantly.
the goal for 4680 was ALWAYS LFP , it was in the original slide deck from battery day.
In battery day the primary goal was dry cathode, with silicone implementation. Was this for LFP chemistry though?
The higher power density 4680 batteries type are unlikely to be the LFP battery type? Also the Tesla Cybertrucks and Semis will be the key demand drivers for the higher power density 4680 batteries, at least during the initial period of the 4680 battery production ramp?
what about the one that qualifies for tax credit?
Any USA made battery will qualify!
I thought the Limiting Factor's Tear down showed that Tesla had not put Any Silicon in the anode ??????
I haven't seen them do a teardown of gen 3 though?
@@HourRomanticist gen3 is not out yet... But CleanerWatt says he thinks that Tesla has already been adding a small amount of silicon in gen2 4680. Just went back and watched the limiting factors video and he did say there was no detectible silicon in the anode
Cylindrical LFP wastes a lot of space compared to prismatic. Other companies are already building prismatic LFP into structural packs, (BYD Blade for example).
Will this burn my house down if it is flooded with saltwater?
Initially the report was cathode sorted will be in vehicles 4th quater this year. Then first quater next. Then second qyater bext. Now middle o next year which means 3rd quater. A year late even after they solved it. This must be hellova problem to solve 😮
It takes 2 years, according to panasonic, for panasonic to stand up a new factory using a know format and chemistry. Tesla has built a new factory, launched a new form factor, is developing a new manufacturing process and dealing with chemistry research, all at once. Battery companies expect it to take 12-18 months to develop and validate any change in a battery. Most companies take on just 1 new development at a time. Tesla is eating the whole elephant at once. The fact they have gotten as far as they have this fast is impressive.
👍
Plant Daddy……🫶
aren't unnamed sources supposed to be ignored?
Simply put, many of us bought in all those years ago, on the basis of what we heard on battery day (as the ones with the most/best batteries will likely win) and it's been a bust, let's be honest
6yr timeline for the 4680 cell program SMDH. We are only now 4 years in and exactly on track per elon Zach and drews various comments!
Panasonic is making 4680 with the same wet process they use on everything else because they don't dare take on dry process and new form factor at the same time. They won't be in volume production, according to panasonic, until NEXT year. Cybertruck is being built with 4680s made by Tesla now. How is 4680 a bust?
You said "there's a reason why (not only because of battery supply) the Plaid uses 18650" .... Lucid uses 2170 and has even more performance than Plaid so I do not think your performance hypothesis holds water unfortunatly.
The performance on both cars is limited by the discharge rate of the cells, which is about the same for both. Saphire has about 20 percent bigger battery pack capacity and about 20 percent more performance. Smaller cells are easier to cool, that´s just simple fact. Why switch Plaid to 2170 when the car was designed for 18650 and it wouldn´t make it any better?
@@michalfaraday8135 If it... "wouldn't make it better" then... 🥁🥁 there is no performance advantage to 18650 anymore, they are equal. They are not going to update it because they really dont care about MS MX anymore and will just let others fill the high end luxury segment since Tesla is not a luxury brand and will continue down market.
@@TheLastMoccasin what Mr Faraday say is true though, Plaid would have had the same 20% increase of power by making the battery pack 20% larger, and I think Lucid is in a point where they can press the battery a little extra for a shorter life just to be in the frontline til they actually manufacture a decent amount of cars per year.
@@jonasgranlund4427 Lucid Air sales might start beating Model S at the rate things are going... but Tesla will lump Cybertruck into that category to prevent us from seeing 🤷
@@jonasgranlund4427 Lucid is not manufacturing constrained either as suggested, they are demand constrained since charging 800V cars at Superchargers is a bad experience and all the other networks in the US are still garbage.
When tesla release a 250 mile range rwd cybertruck it will indicate no more demand
Texas Model Y also have 4680 fyi
They did, but stopped making them in late 2023. Only the ct uses 4680s currently that tesla shows publicly.
2170s, lfp blade+prismatic catl cells are in the semi and model 3&Y, powerwall 3 and the megapacks are exclusively lfp prismatic from catl.
18650s still go in just the model s&x. I bet the new 4680 variants shuffle a lot of that around in the next 12-18 months though. 🤔
Gee willickers, who invented all this "New" battery tech. 😂
What a Cybertruck disaster, pure junk
Kind of sad that their demand has fallen so far that they haven't been cell constrained for years at this point. That used to be the limiting factor to their growth for a long time. 😥
Way bigger risk on Nov 5.
Musk & Tucker doubled up with sardonic laughter.
Elon has put all eggs in this basket.
Consumer demand won’t be the problem, Court demands will.
@@iandavies4853that is true, if Kamala&co win, Tesla (and all Musk companies) will be in trouble, but they will manage. But the US will be ruined
@@iandavies4853 Yup, and the American people loose either way. The corrupt stay in power no matter which side of their corruption coin lands heads up this time. Sad times.
WTF are you talking about ? production is ramping at tesla, they need every cell they can get, what happened in the broader market was the OTHER major OEM's cancelled large battery orders pushing down prices.
@@seancollins9745Tesla had plans at one point of 50% year over year growth. Now they are aiming at nesrly flat sales year over year. At the very aggressive growth path (before Elon pivoted focus away from increasing unit volume) battery supply would have been a challenge. But with basically flat sales battery supply is challenged primarily by moving the battery type as opposed to volume.
Sadly, because of Elon I will not be purchasing my 3rd electric vehicle from Tesla, even though I love my car.
That’s retarded
Musk is a hero