John, as usual a very clear and scientifically grounded presentation. I would also love to see a comparison between Tesla’s dry cathode 4680 and CATL’s LFP shinzeng. Currently hoping model Y Juniper will use Shinzeng.
Nothing to celebrate until it's being produced at GigaTexas in mass. They clearly announced the technology way too early and we're now YEARS behind where the technology should be. They had massive issues scaling up gen 1 of the 4680 in Texas (still only on either one line or barely a second). I'll get excited when they have all lines up and running with the Gen 2 version. That's going to be years away at the rate they're going. As Elon is so fond of saying, "prototypes are easy, mass production is hard"
They PROJECTED because at the time every other question, every day was "4680...WHENWHENWHENWHEN?" If they'd said "We'll let you know when it's ready" there's ZERO doubt you'd be moaning about THAT now?
@@rogerstarkey5390 The tech was clearly nowhere near ready and Tesla should not have made the wild claims about its performance and production ramp. With hindsight it looks pretty much like a pump and dump (i.e. buy Twitter) exercise
Noone has mentioned the acquisition of Maxwell Technology 's DBE being a bust as my impression in 2019 was that MW developed the technique to produce DBE and it turns out that Tesla is really developing it since battery day in 2020. Someone at Tesla missed a technical aspect of the MW DBE process. I noticed that Silion is handled differently from the MW takeover.
No other manufacturer came out with 4680's so quickly. That they did it stepwise was both smart and risky from a public perception standpoint of people who have never developed something themselves. It is always even in the best cases two steps forward one back. I notice that you never seem to recognize that LG and Panasonic still haven't made a single production cell.
@@donaldhenderson1870 So what it doesn't matter what other firms are also failing with the 4680. What does matter is that in the meantime BYD and CATL have been leaping ahead with better and cheaper batteries.
What is 40 percent less? If you mean stock it was the equivalent pre-split of about $140 at battery day and actually dropped to $129 a few weeks after, it's about $200 now.
That’s an excellent take on the asymmetrical layering, never thought of the multi layers acting as elastic layers to laminate in the high silicon element That sounds like there’s a lot more that could be done with that approach, makes sense as to why dry approach is so crucial to the direction they are going in, it’s not just costs it’s also density and variations on a theme
Whether it's for real or not, they're gonna have a hard time competing against CATL's and BYD's new batteries outside the US and it's tariffs. Fortunately, Tesla has show a willingness to use technology from other companies, even their competition. CATL is way ahead at this point.
A 20% energy density increase for Gen 3 cells over Gen 2, would translate to 204 wh/kg at Pack level. Given the steel plate covers top and bottom of the CT battery, 200wh/kg is a good number. Translates to 5kg/kWh - easy to see the impact of a larger pack on vehicle weight. But extra weight of pack probably adds another 20% of that weight to vehicle structure to carry the weight.
You won't get a longer range with the gen2 cells. Tesla will just put in 20% less gen2 cells and keep the range the same. Tesla won't pass on those savings to the consumer, they will reduce their costs. The only benefit you will probably get is a cybertruck that weighs less.
When discussing issues like energy density, charging rate, etc. ... you're talking about battery chemistry, not form factor. Doesn't matter whether you're discussing 4680's or 2170's or pouch or blade form factors, it's the chemistry that matters. The importance of the 4680 form factor is that it enables structural battery packs. The question to resolve going forward is whether 4680's can be mass produced at scale with advanced battery chemistries.
Huge ramifications. Get this right and the business is set for huge success. Just think a cheaper model 3 with nearly 500 miles of range, or more likely a cheaper 400 mile range car that will be >100kg lighter.
@@Matzes false. 500 paper miles is more like 400 real world miles and around 300 winter miles which seems like a lot of people are looking for. Its not a matter if what engineers think its practical its what people demand.
@derekr5327 false. Studies show that people very very seldomly even go beyond 150miles on a day. Average daily distance is 35 miles or so. You want your expensive battery to be designed for the one off road trip you do? And then just for that 1h you save on a 600 mile trip compared to a gas car? Not worth it and most people driving an EV will realise
I have a question I would like you to help answer. When you have a solar panel you have a theoretical efficiency that you could capture 100% of the light and convert it all to electricity. The real world efficiency is about 21 to 23 percent. If you used that same thinking with batteries and asked what is the amount of ions that you can store in a battery where is the technology at right now? Are the batteries storing 2% or 5% or 21% or 50% or 75% of the theoretical limit? On a molecular level we know that for a certain amount of lithium it will hold so many electrons. so where on that scale are the batteries we have now and how much further can we realistically expect the technology to advance? Love to get your thoughts.!
been looking forward to the 2024 CATL or BYD LFP, not any can shaped NCM. Got a 2023 BYD blade LFP in my Tesla Y SR (MiG), best batt I ever had.....why NCM anymore ? Current NCM (which is LG for our EU and China Teslas) is far outdated and...lame...BYD LFP runs circles around them
@@Matzes thats not what I meant. The Y SR with the BYD has (nearly) the same range and a better charge rate then the more expensive Y LR. Save 10k on the car, no need for the more expensive version for long distance drives. Same charge stops on my 1300km travels with the SR BYD
@@t.d.5804 Nearly the same? 😂 No it's not even close unless you subscribe to the "but you can charge it to 100%" nonsense. You get a whopping 91 miles more range, faster charging, and significantly faster acceleration with the Model 3 LR RWD. The performance alone is worth big money.
John, Isn’t this vaporware if and until it appears at scale in cars? Isn’t CATL’s Shenxing Plus LFP battery already produced at scale? It has 205 wh/kg, a 4C charging rate, and a range of easily 500 miles. And they’ve already built a 500 wh/kg battery installed in a large passenger jet which they claim they can mass produce. IMO, China is about to dump EVs into the marketplace that are far cheaper than Tesla (not to mention positioning themselves to control the global passenger aviation market) and no tariffs or obstruction of free trade w China is going to hold off that avalanche. IMO, that is the overarching story you should report on.
@@bkparqueAmprius is a fantastic company, but it isn’t producing at scale yet and CATL is. CATL is also much larger, financially sound, and more established than Amprius. And like Tesla, CATL is also constantly improving so whether or not Amprius could take a significant portion of CATL’s market share and/or keep up with CATL is far from certain. I think Munro is correct that Amprius will have an important role in the market, but it’s a dubious assertion and I doubt Munro thinks that Amprius could rival CATL in the marketplace.
@flutieflambert amprius is certified for aviation and is building mega factory to scale to giga. No they arent as big as catl but will dominate usa and west. Catl makes car and utility batteries . They will never dominate us aviation and drone and us military contracts.
Battery day was in Sep of 2020 genius SMDH and further more elon drew and Zach all publicly clarified since then the 4680 program is on a 6 full year timeline. Elon further elaborated in an August 2022 tx investors day that the goal that year was to be as good as similar nmc cylindrical cells, multiple 4680 model Y teardowns done in late 2022 proved the cells met those goals. Then he said to end 2023 he wanted the 4680 to be better than the available cells. The tesla ct is more efficient than any other full size ev truck=goal met and it's taken 323&327kws max charge rate so it bests anyone else's cells for peak charging POWER. Another goal met. Then he just said in the past q2 earnings call, in late 2023 their 4680s had already achieved a cheaper per kwh rates than competitors cells. But in 2024 it flipped again due to suppliers cell oversupply&material costs dropping in China. But he expected the 4680s to end 2024 at or below on a per kwh basis any nmc cells they can order from suppliers. The dry cathode should also give them a 10-20% kwh pack level energy density boost. As well as the tx lithium refinery is now online and will ramp up throughout 2024&into 2025. Bringing more cost savings to the 4680s! 😎
Tesla's quickly falling behind CATL and GEELY on their high density batteries. The dry process means nothing to customers as that's only more margin for Tesla and means nothing for us. Ultimately, Tesla will have to realize that a semi-solid, or full solid-state prismatic cell, is the best option. The small canned cells will fade away.
The dry process means a lot to the customers - if it leads to lower cost. I’m not saying it will, but using a highly automated process with a small industrial footprint is good on principle. Tesla is new to the industry, and they’re already close to price parity. Let’s give them a chance w their first completely in house version of the 4680. It may lead to some interesting changes in the industry when it starts later this year.
Don't forget, Tesla is very slow at implementing, like it takes Tesla forever to introduce new technology. So this new 4680 will not appear in cars for another 5 years
John, as usual a very clear and scientifically grounded presentation. I would also love to see a comparison between Tesla’s dry cathode 4680 and CATL’s LFP shinzeng. Currently hoping model Y Juniper will use Shinzeng.
Nothing to celebrate until it's being produced at GigaTexas in mass. They clearly announced the technology way too early and we're now YEARS behind where the technology should be. They had massive issues scaling up gen 1 of the 4680 in Texas (still only on either one line or barely a second). I'll get excited when they have all lines up and running with the Gen 2 version. That's going to be years away at the rate they're going. As Elon is so fond of saying, "prototypes are easy, mass production is hard"
They PROJECTED because at the time every other question, every day was "4680...WHENWHENWHENWHEN?"
If they'd said "We'll let you know when it's ready" there's ZERO doubt you'd be moaning about THAT now?
@@rogerstarkey5390 The tech was clearly nowhere near ready and Tesla should not have made the wild claims about its performance and production ramp. With hindsight it looks pretty much like a pump and dump (i.e. buy Twitter) exercise
Noone has mentioned the acquisition of Maxwell Technology 's DBE being a bust as my impression in 2019 was that MW developed the technique to produce DBE and it turns out that Tesla is really developing it since battery day in 2020. Someone at Tesla missed a technical aspect of the MW DBE process. I noticed that Silion is handled differently from the MW takeover.
No other manufacturer came out with 4680's so quickly. That they did it stepwise was both smart and risky from a public perception standpoint of people who have never developed something themselves. It is always even in the best cases two steps forward one back. I notice that you never seem to recognize that LG and Panasonic still haven't made a single production cell.
@@donaldhenderson1870 So what it doesn't matter what other firms are also failing with the 4680.
What does matter is that in the meantime BYD and CATL have been leaping ahead with better and cheaper batteries.
god i wish i hadn't watched battery day, cost me thousands of pounds when i could've just bought in today for 40% less
What is 40 percent less? If you mean stock it was the equivalent pre-split of about $140 at battery day and actually dropped to $129 a few weeks after, it's about $200 now.
Thanks 🎉
That’s an excellent take on the asymmetrical layering, never thought of the multi layers acting as elastic layers to laminate in the high silicon element
That sounds like there’s a lot more that could be done with that approach, makes sense as to why dry approach is so crucial to the direction they are going in, it’s not just costs it’s also density and variations on a theme
Let us hope that 20% is for real that would be huge step forward.
Whether it's for real or not, they're gonna have a hard time competing against CATL's and BYD's new batteries outside the US and it's tariffs. Fortunately, Tesla has show a willingness to use technology from other companies, even their competition. CATL is way ahead at this point.
A 20% energy density increase for Gen 3 cells over Gen 2, would translate to 204 wh/kg at Pack level. Given the steel plate covers top and bottom of the CT battery, 200wh/kg is a good number. Translates to 5kg/kWh - easy to see the impact of a larger pack on vehicle weight. But extra weight of pack probably adds another 20% of that weight to vehicle structure to carry the weight.
Cancelled my Cybertruck reservation, I have decided I can wait until the 20% more energy dense batteries in future models
You won't get a longer range with the gen2 cells. Tesla will just put in 20% less gen2 cells and keep the range the same. Tesla won't pass on those savings to the consumer, they will reduce their costs. The only benefit you will probably get is a cybertruck that weighs less.
Great job as usual
The cathode is the part of the battery that attracts cations. What does it look like on a 4680?
I come for the tesla news but stay for the hover pens!
haha...
at least a hover pen is a real thing. It isn't the AG1 supplement scam.
When discussing issues like energy density, charging rate, etc. ... you're talking about battery chemistry, not form factor. Doesn't matter whether you're discussing 4680's or 2170's or pouch or blade form factors, it's the chemistry that matters. The importance of the 4680 form factor is that it enables structural battery packs. The question to resolve going forward is whether 4680's can be mass produced at scale with advanced battery chemistries.
Huge ramifications. Get this right and the business is set for huge success. Just think a cheaper model 3 with nearly 500 miles of range, or more likely a cheaper 400 mile range car that will be >100kg lighter.
Noone needs 500 miles. Much more likely they just reduce the kwh in battery which improves effeciency and price
@@Matzes false. 500 paper miles is more like 400 real world miles and around 300 winter miles which seems like a lot of people are looking for. Its not a matter if what engineers think its practical its what people demand.
@derekr5327 false. Studies show that people very very seldomly even go beyond 150miles on a day. Average daily distance is 35 miles or so. You want your expensive battery to be designed for the one off road trip you do? And then just for that 1h you save on a 600 mile trip compared to a gas car? Not worth it and most people driving an EV will realise
@@Matzes 500 mile range would be needed for anyone who buys an EV pickup truck and wants to tow more than 150 miles in between charging sessions.
I have a question I would like you to help answer. When you have a solar panel you have a theoretical efficiency that you could capture 100% of the light and convert it all to electricity. The real world efficiency is about 21 to 23 percent. If you used that same thinking with batteries and asked what is the amount of ions that you can store in a battery where is the technology at right now? Are the batteries storing 2% or 5% or 21% or 50% or 75% of the theoretical limit? On a molecular level we know that for a certain amount of lithium it will hold so many electrons.
so where on that scale are the batteries we have now and how much further can we realistically expect the technology to advance? Love to get your thoughts.!
Moustache-less beard is a mistake I was making when I was 20
I think it's because he's Mormon
been looking forward to the 2024 CATL or BYD LFP, not any can shaped NCM. Got a 2023 BYD blade LFP in my Tesla Y SR (MiG), best batt I ever had.....why NCM anymore ? Current NCM (which is LG for our EU and China Teslas) is far outdated and...lame...BYD LFP runs circles around them
Best battery I ever had😂 like you can feel the difference of the electrons moving around??
@@Matzes Best charge rate, lowest price, better than the more expensive LR LG
@t.d.5804 lowest price is good for tesla not for you. They sell them at the same market for the same price regardless of battery
@@Matzes thats not what I meant. The Y SR with the BYD has (nearly) the same range and a better charge rate then the more expensive Y LR. Save 10k on the car, no need for the more expensive version for long distance drives. Same charge stops on my 1300km travels with the SR BYD
@@t.d.5804 Nearly the same? 😂 No it's not even close unless you subscribe to the "but you can charge it to 100%" nonsense. You get a whopping 91 miles more range, faster charging, and significantly faster acceleration with the Model 3 LR RWD. The performance alone is worth big money.
You don't "solve" a breakthrough, you "achieve" or "make" a breakthrough!
So what ever happened to Jeff Dahn and his "Genius" research?
We have seen claims like this before. 20% jump in density is simply pumping the stock.
John, Isn’t this vaporware if and until it appears at scale in cars? Isn’t CATL’s Shenxing Plus LFP battery already produced at scale? It has 205 wh/kg, a 4C charging rate, and a range of easily 500 miles. And they’ve already built a 500 wh/kg battery installed in a large passenger jet which they claim they can mass produce. IMO, China is about to dump EVs into the marketplace that are far cheaper than Tesla (not to mention positioning themselves to control the global passenger aviation market) and no tariffs or obstruction of free trade w China is going to hold off that avalanche. IMO, that is the overarching story you should report on.
Same technology as amprius silicon wire anode technology meets nano one materials cathode single crystal cathode powder?
@@bkparqueAmprius is a fantastic company, but it isn’t producing at scale yet and CATL is. CATL is also much larger, financially sound, and more established than Amprius. And like Tesla, CATL is also constantly improving so whether or not Amprius could take a significant portion of CATL’s market share and/or keep up with CATL is far from certain. I think Munro is correct that Amprius will have an important role in the market, but it’s a dubious assertion and I doubt Munro thinks that Amprius could rival CATL in the marketplace.
@flutieflambert amprius is certified for aviation and is building mega factory to scale to giga. No they arent as big as catl but will dominate usa and west. Catl makes car and utility batteries . They will never dominate us aviation and drone and us military contracts.
Haven't the Chinese beat all the 4680 goals already?
It's about manufacturing efficiency an no, they haven't
@@Cleanerwatt you might want to do a comparison of what CATL are doing.
Can somebody translate this video into English? When do we get to 20% more energy battery in mass production?
Add a higher percentage of Silicon in the anode, and increase the amount of Nickel in the Cathode.
how comes we still get presented data from the 2019 (5 years old!!) battery day ... aren't there any data and estimates from tesla?
Just out of interest, how much "Data" do you see from other Battery Manufacturers?
(I doubt you even look?)
@@rogerstarkey5390 Battery manufacturers release specs and roadmaps, which is unsurprising given they are in the business of selling battery cells
Battery day was in Sep of 2020 genius SMDH and further more elon drew and Zach all publicly clarified since then the 4680 program is on a 6 full year timeline.
Elon further elaborated in an August 2022 tx investors day that the goal that year was to be as good as similar nmc cylindrical cells, multiple 4680 model Y teardowns done in late 2022 proved the cells met those goals.
Then he said to end 2023 he wanted the 4680 to be better than the available cells. The tesla ct is more efficient than any other full size ev truck=goal met and it's taken 323&327kws max charge rate so it bests anyone else's cells for peak charging POWER. Another goal met.
Then he just said in the past q2 earnings call, in late 2023 their 4680s had already achieved a cheaper per kwh rates than competitors cells. But in 2024 it flipped again due to suppliers cell oversupply&material costs dropping in China.
But he expected the 4680s to end 2024 at or below on a per kwh basis any nmc cells they can order from suppliers. The dry cathode should also give them a 10-20% kwh pack level energy density boost.
As well as the tx lithium refinery is now online and will ramp up throughout 2024&into 2025. Bringing more cost savings to the 4680s! 😎
This is becoming as predictable and laughable as Toyota’s “imminent” solid state battery technology.
No, they finally finished the last key tech.
Miracle battery promises from tesla since battery day 2020
Not so much miracles, but rather discussion of potential improvements with research and changes.
It is called Product Development.
Take care
@@timtessman3107
👍
yep and i fell for it
Who uses pens these days?
Lot's of people including me.
this is a big deal!
First comment. First time ever
First comment on first comment
First time commenting on a first time comment and another first time commenter commenting on that first time comment
Tesla's quickly falling behind CATL and GEELY on their high density batteries. The dry process means nothing to customers as that's only more margin for Tesla and means nothing for us. Ultimately, Tesla will have to realize that a semi-solid, or full solid-state prismatic cell, is the best option. The small canned cells will fade away.
The dry process means a lot to the customers - if it leads to lower cost.
I’m not saying it will, but using a highly automated process with a small industrial footprint is good on principle.
Tesla is new to the industry, and they’re already close to price parity. Let’s give them a chance w their first completely in house version of the 4680. It may lead to some interesting changes in the industry when it starts later this year.
More capacity, bigger fireball. Can't wait to see the fireworks.
Don't forget, Tesla is very slow at implementing, like it takes Tesla forever to introduce new technology. So this new 4680 will not appear in cars for another 5 years
Boring nonsense