How Likely Is An India China War? | Abijit Iyer Mitra
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 ต.ค. 2024
- India and China despite being literal neighbours, sharing major borders and trade, have lukewarm or just plain bad relations. India's Narendra Modi is increasingly wary of the growing Chinese belligerence and strategic rivalry it has to New Delhi's geopolitical interests.
Abhijit Iyer Mitra shares his views on these two major powers tensions and whether India could get involved over Taiwan or that the territorial disputes over Tibet and Kashmir could equal escalation and even all-out conflict.
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#india #china #geopolitics #modi #military #war #internationalrelations #economy #finance #forex
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Will always dislike if this guy is invited.
Invite Major Gaurav Arya, he’s best to talk on geopolitics from Indian perspective
NehRU was a brilliant strategist.. Nehru actually invaded china when china was begging for food, taking advantage of weakened china caused by the famine of 59-62 that 30 millions died. Moreover, China had a big fallout with the soviet and India was still in the soviet camp. USA-Soviet was also distracted with the Cuban missile crisis. The Indian army was chased off, and china even manage to retake southern tibet that had been taken over by India.. However, the famine had a toll on china.. Being unable to keep it, they retreated. It was lucky break for India NeHrU was so terribly shocked by the emaciated china army which managed to overcome the strong well fed battle hardened Indian forces-, that he went into deep depression and gave up his conquering ambition after successful annexing nations for past 13 years. . No other Indian did any better.
By the way , if china had planned the Invasion, they wouldn't have retreated. They were completely surprise at their victory in warding off the strong Indian forces. BUT No other Indian did better than NeHRU...
India had annexed so many land.... since www2 even more than usa
Inevitable, sooner or later, it has to happen. India needs to be ready and be prepared
@@moneywisefinserve268 focus on getting india to colonise moon mars rather than fight over few shreds of land border on earth.
Useless piece of land for agriculture, but extremely useful for politicians to stir the emotion to get votes.
@@lakshminarayanan-ls5fz Losing wars will make sure we're ready to colonise Mars 😂
@@lakshminarayanan-ls5fz
Bharat will surely conquer Mars Moon & Beyond as will AksaiHind. God bless.
@@Liboch
I agree 👍 💯
I don’t see the two going to war against each other. Neither country seeks war, especially on a large scale.
Despite having nukes, they will use fists, sticks and stones to fight. That's how two greatest civilisations fight. Wisdom comes into play.
@@Libochit’s not wisdom but a treaty
Remember 1962? It was even more unlikely then
@@MegaAshfire wisdom makes that kind of treaty
@@Liboch china has broken multiple such treaties
Its true that there is a danger, because we never know if Xi jing pin notices if his power in china is sliding out of his hands to curb his failures and incompetence he might try something devious.
But at the same time India is using its soft powers as well as hard power very efficiently to keep CCP and Xi in check ✅.
Being able maintain this type of geopolitical grip in the future totally depends on the future governments.
Hope India stays united at least on the topic of resistance and resilience against foreign enemies of India. 😊❤
A great group of questions asked by you for the purpose of getting to the crux of the situations and AIM as always never disappointing.
Xi is smarter than Modi, India has little or no influence around the world.
Thanks!
Iyer believes that the 'ring of pearls' strategy is ineffective, as it has failed to protect ships in the Indian Ocean from their bases. He argues that the Chinese are also not taking significant actions, which keeps the world unaware of their capabilities or how they coordinate their navy. This mystery about their signals is a valid point. By not showing their strengths or weaknesses in countering pirates or missiles from the Houthis, they maintain ambiguity.
Secondly, China has created a perfect trap for India in Leh and Bhutan. They can use this pressure point in two ways. First, if they invade Taiwan successfully, they can leverage their victory in the Himalayas to put more pressure on Bhutan and India. Second, if the invasion does not go as planned and India is aiding the US, delaying China's victory, they can either become more aggressive or use this pressure point as a bargaining chip for peace. They might offer concessions to India to stop its support for the US or Taiwan.
Underestimating China is a significant mistake. For India, trying to stand alone will result in a heavy price if a war with China starts. India needs to align with the West and take a more aggressive stance against China, or it will not be able to stand up to them.
Anyway , the main beneficiary will be the USA. China knows that and will not be foolhardy .
Awesome 🎉🎉
I believe our support for Taiwan will be very limited ! .... Giving them resources is something India will hesitate from doing I am very sure about that since India will still be under equipped militarily come 2027 .... Mark my words ! .... 🙏 .... 🇮🇳 ....
I still feels both the Indian goverment and it's people forgotten those brave men dying protecting the borders of India. 2020
They still see China as an ally after that? Then those men died for nothing?
If it had been any other country seeing it's citizen killed by other countries forces it would had been called an act of war.
U westerns are really illiterate😂😂😂.
West want India n China war too much😂
I’m amazed how India is so weak on China. China is literally occupying portions of Ladakh.
@jimjiminy5836
Thanks to Congress, but as Deng said
"Wait for the right time & become strong"
@@jimjiminy5836I see what you're doing there. Butt-hurt?
@@jimjiminy5836 west looted 45 trillions from us , and Guess what you are still alive, we believe in reclaiming not in blood shade, if you want us to start avange plans we will Frist start from west (Europe+ america + 5 eyes nations)
@@moneywisefinserve268chaddi has comment edd
There are still many unresolved historical and legacy issues between China and India. Among them, the border issue has the greatest impact on the relationship between the two countries. China-India border disputes occur from time to time, and the US media continues to hype up the border issue, which has caused great harm to the development of relations between the two countries.
I mean we should always be ready for the worst case scenario, but honestly don't want any war. Enough wars menace chaos all over the world already, our goal should be to grow and grow ASAP. To aspire and work to Become the best version of ourselves. War will be a unnecessary block in between.
Nice , I share his assessment that India or the world for that matter is confuse about China signalling and the question is , is this being done intentionally by China ???? or the CCP is not sure what to do itself ???
India brought this upon itself in 1962. I hope India will not make the same mistake again and muster the courage to correct its historical mistakes.
Let me put some facts straight for your information. Yes in 1962 Indian socialist and pro china govt. brought humiliation upon the nation. Despite that our ill equipped, without proper logistics support and outnumbered armed forces showed its bravery. Neither the govt. nor the civilians were prepared.
In 1967 Indian armed forces took a small revenge and gave PLA a bloody nose. And made intention clear...and also clear doubt about its capabilities.
In present times we have already seen Chinese PLA level in border clashes.😊
This time Indian armed forces, Govt. of India and Indian people all are prepared...😂😂😂
So don't worry.
@@chandra_himanshu After the 1967 conflict ended, the four-day "67 conflict" soon caused controversy in India because India failed again this time.
However, in order to appease the Indian people, the Indian government actually beautified this conflict into a "great victory", exaggerated the number of Chinese casualties, and promoted it domestically.
Because the Chinese side did not enter the Indian territory near New Delhi this time, the Indians did not know how the battle was fought, so they believed the government's lies. Anyway, the Congress Party achieved its goal of using the conflict to strengthen its position.
Behind the scenes, the Indian army has since become more aware of the depth of China's strength. In the 20 years since this time, the Indian army has never taken the initiative to provoke on a large scale on the border again.
@@chandra_himanshu Please read my comment with @ wisdomseeker041 . It should be the last one among all the comments here. There are 38 comments between him and me. If you still have questions after reading it, then we can communicate and discuss.
@@chandra_himanshu Please read my comment with "wisdomseeker041". It should be the last comment among all the comments here. There are 38 comments between me and him. If you still have questions after reading it, then we can communicate and discuss it.
@@chandra_himanshu Please read my review with "wisdomseeker041". It should be the last review among all the reviews here.
What is the episode title on spotify? I'd like to listen to more of Global Gambit but I won't if I can't even find what I'm looking for
The title of the video was misleading… please post the title appropriate to the content.
You should invite Aadi from Def talks YT channel ,his channel is focused on India and geopolitics.
Conspiracy Theorist!
LOL. His guests or himself could not answer real and serious questions. Buffon channel.
The most realist channel I have seen . He always says he doesn't know if he doesn't know .
The real elephant in the room is what no one seems to want to discuss. Doing a SWOT analysis across military, economic and social sectors, can anyone outline what in terms of Economic activity would China have to lose. They are lined up across our Northern border at a distance that in a full fledged war, would make it not so difficult to attack aerially , significant economic and social aglomerations in the plain of the Hindustan - we, do not have any such targets in the Industrial belt of China to be within range that would affect their economy. Their personnel are on a plateau and by now perhaps fully acclimatised , with connectivity of a very high level - we have to reach our forward lines through quite some distance across 'moving' mountains and could become easy logistic disruption targets thereby. They have also, with their 'friendship' with our Eastern neighbour created the possibility of a multi pronged war - and unless can provide data to prove otherwise, all we can hope for is defensive goals.
China and India should abandon their biased and emotional remarks and view China's development and its relations with India in an objective and impartial manner. By enhancing mutual understanding and trust, it will help resolve the differences and problems between the two countries and promote bilateral relations in a more positive direction
No string of Pearls ..its Upgraded to Butterfly Strategy ...
All the more stupid ,let chinese sunk there money
Or is it chowmein startegy now. Its hard to keep.pace with their white elephant "projects".
I think it will largely depend upon India. The conflict is caused by the British colonial imaginary drawn McMahon line. This line was designed to keep India and China in perpetual conflict. China never agreed to this arbitrary line, while India swears it's sacrosanct.
India should therefore change its perception and position based on an arbitrary line deliberately designed to cause conflict, to a real historically based reality. Than there can be a talking point. Otherwise I can see no easy solution.
Forget the Mcmahon Line, Johnson Line, McCartney Line and all those nomenclature given by British .This has locked us in situation of perpetual conflict. Simply accept the logic of geography to draw a viable border. In the West the Karakoram range and in the East the crest of the Himalayas if accepted as the border in principle it's a fair solution. In the middle sector both accept the Himalayan watershed so the dispute is very minimal. With this understanding China will retain Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh remains with India. A few mutual concessions can be made to enhance goodwill. India can make a concession in the Tawang sector if china take care of Indias concerns around Siliguri corridor , Pangong and Depsang Areas. If China wants India to accept the One China principle on Tibet, Taiwan , Aksai Chin and Xinjiang it should extend the same courtesies on Arunachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh by acknowledging them as integral parts of India. Only then both countries can have mutually beneficial and fruitful relations based on the five principles of Panchsheel. China must accept that quid pro quo is the basis of good relations between all countries including India and China.
That's just an excuse for China's greed. What line has caused border issues for China with their other neighbours. China and their greed to expand is not a secret.
@@user-po2wu4mr8w I am Chinese. Recently I am reading various materials to try to understand the issue. I would say what you suggested is really a good plan for both sides. Pragmatic and realistic. There is still something puzzles me. I also read various Chinese materials, and it seems your plan is also more or less what the Chinese side wants. (I meant scholarly analysis, not the social media. Often social media is much more unrealistic). So I don’t understand why both sides don’t just do you suggested.
@@larrylevine5248 為什麼要用中國土地分?
@@tacli86 如果你看清华大学周波的访谈，中国的谈判诉求和这位印度朋友说的其实差不多（放弃藏南，保留阿克塞钦）。在这些地方和他们消耗资源是不明智的。我们真正的大鱼是发展科技和经济，人均追上发达国家，科技领先世界。和印度在这些不毛之地死磕，对抓大鱼没好处。
Bruv - are you dragging one long podcast with this guy with clip spreading over many many months or what?
Are you worried about China and India? Drop a comment
Not going to happen. India is little more than an annoyance to China and pose little threat and is more of a land border issue. The dispute border land is kind of no man land.
war can happen but short war. india will agree on giving arunchal pradesh 😅
"Drop a comment"
@@VoltarStarman-m6r I see and like what you did there
@@theglobalgambit I did thank you for your like.
Maybe the Chinese didn't want to go after the Houthi rebels
It's a bit naive to assume they couldn't
Because their own ships were taken hostage.
China deployed fifth generation jets on Indian border, but still India's planning for 5th generation jets which might take 5 to 6 years. China controlled most of Indian waters by establish the dams. Our backup takes 24 hours on Chinese border whereas Chinese take few hours.
😂
Who told you that 😂😂
Indian Ocean controlled by india
You forget to mention "BIG CORRUPTIONS IN THE INDIAN ARMY"
@@VoltarStarman-m6r I don't think so 😂😂
I am sorry I unsubscribed. Please choose your guest wisely. Bring Ankit Shah.
A person with such level of delusion is called an analyst. China military power is totally of another level. China's military industrial capacity is the biggest and modernized,wind tunnel is just one example besides the shipbuilding capacity. Just look at their new aircraft carrier construction to launch time while lndia kowtowing carrier is still unsure of what carrier fighters to be deployed. Talking big and doing chest thumping is the usual traits of this country.
You forget to mention "BIG CORRUPTIONS IN THE INDIAN ARMY"... 😂
In that case USA also got a huge advanced weapons industry. What did they achieve in Afganistan or in the past Vietnam?? Yeah tech matters but man behind the machine is more important. And keep in mind Chinese soldiers are over pampered weaklings due to their single child policy.
@@Yuva_Maddy smart-ass spotted... 😊... And what are QUAD, AUKUS & NATO+ for?
first of all, try to convenience your quality standards to your own people where an average Chinese doesn't or never trust anything built or manufactured in China due to lacklustre down, right dogshit quality, yet you complain about standards and capacity you being bootlicker for ccp regime has no say for the indian standards for being an analyst. speak all you want but the ground reality is different where your missile launcher has water in the silo and half of your military equipment doesn't function up to par and further more most of Chinese soldiers cant even sustain in mountain region but has audacity to pick on indian military and it's equipment. remember we indians built our tech by our own mean and by collaboration not by stealing other military intellectual knowledge or by reverse engineering. The Indian army definitely has standards, but not to compare us with paper tiger army.
@@VoltarStarman-m6r A grouping of countries that cannot agree on common goals is like a ship with a broken compass "adrift and directionless" same can be said about BRICS+ and SCO
You need to Invite Major Gaurav Arya some day.
He was the 1st man in my knowledge who said a War with China is absolute.
he'll just start talking about pakistan no matter the subject
Where is the full video
Is Modi’s India Finally Challenging China’s Aggression? | Abhijit Iyer-Mitra
th-cam.com/video/nvqkvwDMXYc/w-d-xo.html
India is legging behind china, in terms of weapon technology, establishing command and strategic doctrine, space warfare and AI driven weapoans by 2 to 3 generations and it is widening day by day minute by minute. India needs some 25 years to come to terms with china's half of military strength.
no
No… Our trains will still be filthy
Tech isn't everything. The chinese army has not participated in a war for many many decades, whereas the Indian army has been in war for many decades, thanks to their friendly neighbour Pakistan. India has got war experience. But the major strength of India is its geography. Their army is sitting on high grounds which also have good connectivity internally to arrange reinforcements. The entire Tibetan portion of China is desert and no-man zone. They are working on establishing connectivity but we're talking about a land that is equivalent to many UKs here
@@Djockzonelol 😂and what war experience india have ohh fighting with Pakistan lol 😂. Can you come up with something better. Even Pakistan can give such a good fight with indian can you imagine the level of Indian army lol. And stop spamming same sentence again and again lol
No , there will be no war with chaina
Cathay don't talk about Hendoostan because only the inferior is obsessed with the superior. For anyone that thinks hendoostan will win because their soldiers are bave... Well, they were brave in 62 too. But bravery didn't win that war.
What's your deal mate?
@@Djockzone it's all about the facts.
I completely understand where you are coming from but the problem in 62 was the Indian leadership. After 62 india thrashed china in 67. The Chinese have lost against india in everything they have tried to do since 62. In the Galwan both the Americans and Russians are in rare agreement that in excess of 40 Chinese soldiers were killed( check it out for yourself). The were forced to walk back 20 kilometres in Ladakh recently ( again check it out for yourself). I do understand where you’re are coming from because most Indians (believe it or not) are fooled by Chinese propaganda and say things along the same lines as you.
@@n-x8c Don't make up stories. Stick to the facts on the ground and the fact is, as per Modi, there were no Chi in Hind territory. This is an admission that the whole thing happened in Chi territory. The Rus and Yank quoted the number 62 from Hind. Most of the ded from the Hind side were caused by hyperthermia when Hind soldiers retreaded. They pushed and stampede each other into the water.
If the Chi were in fact in Hind territory, the map would have changed when the Hind retreated, but the map remain unchanged.
One can conclude from all this information that Hind bravely went into Chi territory and was beaten back. Bravery and making up stories don't win wars.
@@freedumb_3.0 have you checked anything. I have to say it is annoying discussing anything with a totally brainwashed person not even willing to check. Just google Nathu la clash
China India war in my humble opinion is just as unlikely as an India Pakistan war or a Russia USA war or a DPRK USA war or a China USA war. Nuclear powers only brag and posture but never really go to war due to Mutually Assured Destruction.😂😂😂
Your thesis is that two nuclear powers have never fought against each other?
China will just ignore. India better explore moon and mard than fight for few km of border
how abt do BOTH :)
@@AshishBagade-hv4el focus on getting terrestrial territory and rest of world will obey as india wishes. That's how you win over - definitely not by physical war which will obviously destroy you for 100s of years. Just stop this war rhetoric and focus on science
@@AshishBagade-hv4elbuild good public toilets at first
@@VoltarStarman-m6r already done ….many countries don’t have best ac toilets like well the us China itself doesn’t have like a gold laden toilet etc… India have already built 114 million toilets and sanitation coverage is almost 99 percent including in rural parts …don’t know which world u are living in ….the western media have made the association stronger in common public mind which is
India = Toilet So sad
You sound delusional. China is not ignoring India. It's building bases, building villages, setting up logistics and fielding soldiers for a future conflict. All that sounds like ignoring to you? Don't be dumb man.
7th fleet. USA NAVY.
I haven't seen a podcast from Abhijit in a long time. Where the hell has he been ??
Western media to much noise useless 👎
*Wishful thinking for evil minds!*
What are you? An angel?
@@Djockzone No, just commenting on people that only ever think about War. *They're the same people that have never earned anything they have because they can't compete!*
Pyotr doesn't have the depth to understand what Abhijit is saying 😅
And you don’t have the depth to write coherent statements
Modi hatao 😊
I know I'm on no level with Abhijit sir, but, in my humble opinion, I don't think china is going to dare declare a full scale war against India, cuz it's going to be suicidal for them, even if not a single country comes in aid of india, because it would be devastating for india and sure, the war would break the backbone of India, but, it would crush the entire Chinese civilization, so to speak, because, Chinese navy is sh*t and even if it wasn't, it just won't be able to extend and come in Indian Ocean to hurt India, it would be a miracle if they would be able to defend their own coast line, second, their military moral is still like the society era, throwing body is all they would be able to do, because their military shit their pants in case of conflicts , their are literal videos on TH-cam of them crying while on bus to indian border, even abhijeet sir have mentioned this on podcast, so they are not what they barely were in 62, they war between these two country on a full scale, is just not worth it for any of the country because India would be destroyed economically possibly, but it would still possess it's army, airforce possibly and navy for sure, but Chinese on the other hand would be near suicidal on brink of death in condition of war.
I feel sorry for you.
Because...how should I describe you? The information you got...sigh...I feel sorry for you. Although there is a lot of real information on YT, there is also a lot of fake information. Can't you distinguish it yourself?
"Peeing and pissing"? "Crying"? Sorry, is this how Indians judge and analyze?
@@mingmuyiyang8615 don't feel sorry for me bud, it was my humble opinion as I said.
@@wisdomseeker041 I am Chinese and it is late at night. However, I am willing to discuss this with you.
Indians talked big nowadays, talking og challenging china nowadays
Nothing big really. People easily forget that India is a Nuclear power and any gross miscalculation on China's part will be catastrophic for both countries.
@@shriharikulkarni29 😂India is not a nuclear power, nuclear powers are the five permanent members of the United Nations
@@huas5350lol coping of Chinese
If nuclear war happens both civilization gonna destroyed😂
@@edgesearch2693 I remember that in nuclear power Pakistan, an Indian pilot said that the tea tastes good🤫
I remember 93000 surrender, 3800 killed in 1965 war, 5000 pakistani tribals in 1948 war & 1000 pakis dead in 1999 kargil,😂 pakistanis had lost so much in war against India, that pakistanis punjabi muslims boys are getting converted into gays😂@@huas5350