How Currencies Fluctuate in Value | ITK with Cathie Wood
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 22 พ.ค. 2024
- On episode LV of "In the Know," (May 3, 2024) ARK CEO/CIO, Cathie Wood discusses the bitcoin halving with ARK Director of Digital Assets Yassine Elmandjra, how interest rates impact innovation, and weighs in on the federal budget deficit, M2 money supply, employment growth, and more.
This month we’re again responding to a few requests by supplementing this episode with charts and data to help illustrate ARK’s perspective on and outlook for the global economy.
As always, Cathie discusses fiscal policy, monetary policy, market signals, economic indicators, and innovation. We hope you find this monthly series useful, especially during periods of heightened volatility. Stay Healthy. Stay Innovative.
0:00:00 Intro
0:01:55 Bitcoin
0:03:10 Bitcoin Inflation Rate and Percent of Supply Mined
0:05:29 M2 Money Supply 4 Year Annualized Percent Change
0:10:53 Bitcoin Inflation Rate and Percent of Supply Mined
0:17:34 Monetary Policy
0:17:38 M2 Money Supply vs. CPI Inflation
0:20:45 Yield Curve 10 Year Treasury Yield Minus 2 Year
0:22:38 Real Federal Funds Target Rate
0:23:31 The Fed Is Keeping Interest Rates Higher For Longer Than Normal
0:24:41 Fiscal Policy
0:24:45 Federal Budget Deficit Or Surplus Percent of Nominal GDP
0:27:58 Economic Indicators
0:28:02 Consumer Sentiment vs Expectations
0:29:05 Restaurants Same Store Sales YOY Percent Change
0:30:38 Nonfarm vs Household Employment Growth
0:34:23 Temporary Help Employment vs. Total Employment
0:34:53 Quits Rate Leads Employment Costs
0:35:32 US Personal Saving Rate
0:36:56 US Existing Home Sales (SAAR)
0:37:19 US New One Family Houses Sold (SAAR)
0:37:46 US Auto Sales (SAAR)
0:38:46 Small Business Optimism Index (NFIB)
0:39:34 Chicago Business Barometer (Market News International)
0:40:15 Market Signals
0:40:18 USD Index (DXY)
0:41:10 USDJPY Spot Exchange Rate
0:42:29 Bloomberg Commodity Index
0:44:44 Metals/Gold Ratio vs. US 10 Year Treasury
0:48:30 Investment Grade And High Yield Index Credit Default Swaps
0:49:42 Common Holdings and Active Share
0:51:13 Weight of the Top 10 Stocks in the S&P 500 Index
0:52:31 Market Cap of the Largest Stock Relative to the 75th Percentile Stock
0:56:38 Outro
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Disclosure: arkinv.st/39rzF94 - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
As always, thank you!
She’s so smart about so many things. Good conversation. Thx
So smart 😂 didn’t make a single dollar for the past 5 yrs
27:25 thankyou for acknowledging RFK Jr being in the run for a 3 way presidential ticket
RFK sounds sensible until you realise he is an anti-vaxer and believes various other conspiracies. Trump may lie a lot but at least he doesn't believe the crud that RFK actually appears to believe. RFK isn't the silver knight some might hope. We just need to get everyone in this election in the rear view mirror and move on...
RFK 2024!
@@Blockchain_Basics😂
Who cares he won’t win he’s in the way
Dems hate him, so he has zero chance. His road to the presidency would be on the ticket with Trump, but Kennedy doesn't play to win.
Cathie is degen daytrader
Where does the Fed Keep Their Money ? In Debasement
W comment 😂🤣
Don't know exactly but it's definitely not invested in any of Cathies funds or else it would have zeroed out by now
Lol...
Good one! 🤣😂🤣🥰
Let me just say I appreciate Cathy and if all you people want to do is bash her then don’t waste your time watching the videos simple right but let’s be real y’all know you envy her
Hi Cathy thank you a lot for the interesting content :-). One question: does "Nonfarm Payroll" include Gig-economy type of jobs, like Uber drivers? I wonder if the number is moving up so much because of the big increase in these type of jobs, which would of course skew the hole metric.
When will ARKG perform😮
This was an interesting one.
Very interesting 👌
This lady is brilliant and she's thousands of miles ahead of everyone else...I trust her to protect the fund thru this horrible economic time.
Why isnt there more talk about ARKK? I see many charts repeated across ITKs but why not explain the outlook on the ETFs? I wonder how many poor fellas are out there holding a bag, wondering what to do.
Love yall!!!!
Deflationary pressures starting to appear.
Great thoughts n' charts, Cath, thanks! On the last chart, wonder what is the great current crisis the top/75th %ile ratio is pointing to - the others seem obvious (at least in retrospect). Surely not the Coof. Maybe the imminent failure of USD hegemony, or "The Great (demographic) Replacement"? Regards, G.M. o/
If the money supply in the US is falling to zero, which is propagating throughout the world, what liquidity will flow into Bitcoin this year?
The price of ARKK back in May 3 2019 was 48.39$. Now, it is less. The 5-year-horizon is a joke.
You sound butthurt
Palantir or Tesla? If you had to choose one Ms.Wood ?
PLTR
Tesla
Tesla
it got reposted 💖 i thought The Man was like ''Sshhhhh'' !
No comments about TDOC, the worst performing stock of all time
And SKLZ, and NNMD and ZM and Roku
Thank you so much for putting this series out there. I am learning so much!!!
Cathie wood is the greatest destroyer of wealth among modern day fund managers. Bloomberg had a scathing article on this.
ARKG is the worst investment I’ve ever made
Who’s fault is that?
Stocks are longterm investments. Not short term. So don't hate the player. Hate the game clown.
My finance momma ❤❤❤
Cathie is the coolest girl in Wall St.
Best video to wake up to here in the UK - hi from the south west!! ❤❤ hope you are all thriving
Its not that people are investing to the faang stocks. Its that money is being pulled out of mid capper and low end cap companies thus resulting into the record chart you see at the very end of this video. Basically, if i had a 401k, i would be looking into changing your future investment % weights more heavily into the midcap indexes that are offered by your 401k provider. And possibly even doing a complete rebalance of the funds throughout all your alotment of funds.
Tesla has devalued itself.
WTF happened with $NVTA... HUH? WHAT HAPPENED?!!?!?
Society -- the world -- is in the process of trading one monetary system for another... gradually... while governments necessarily slow down / govern the process so as to reduce the shock to the other systems and general public as much as possible until humanoid robots can do the things that humans won't do in an era of abundance Either way, at this point Bitcoin is, for all intents and purposes, inevitable.
the way Miss Cathie was being patient the whole time he answered a question that she didn't ask.
The only stock outperformed the markets of Cathie was Coinbase... Iam loosing trust. Now she is selling Teladoc and Zoom, (was her highest conviction) Invitae and 2u, Tusimple she lost almost everything. Great stocks like Spotify, Palantir and Nvidia she sold too early. Her ARKG fund is up 10% while the market is up 70% from the 2022 lows. Arkg did not even catch XBI or Small capp. It underperformed every index and ETF.
hindsight
@@lowbrow NO Sight.
I just don't see the large names going down, it's in every etf, everyone's portfolio, and less risk. Bunch of cash. Why would it. Apple had a lot of selling presure of buffet and still managed to stay somewhat high still. There strong and will continue to be strong. Rates have to lower for the money to spread out to other stocks until then top 10 is the play and where the volume it at. Google, meta, and Microsoft are my top holdings and prob be everyone's top holdings.
Clearly you do not get it. Money is being pulled from the lower performing companies. Thus making the gap between big boys and middies. Not that people are simply only adding to the biggies and making the gap wider.
How's that 5 year view looking ?
Hey Cathie, do you feel foolish to divest on all you Nvidea stocks before the meteroic rise in price?
Rahim, do you get everything right? She made a lot on NVIDIA and she sold, but then missed out on it 3xing perhaps. I know I miss a lot on my portfolio even when I am on fire. Maybe you nail everything...
Cathie thank you for your regular updates!! Really looking forward to the growth your funds will see in the coming years. It’s unfortunate many will miss out
She's underperformed the s&p by 100 points over the past 5y. Hopefully everyone misses out on those losses, but there will be plenty who don't know any better.
Why HALF bitcoin ever four years and not 1/4 or some other number, why half?? I know it's "baked" into the code, etc etc... but why HALF... isn't that too aggressive?? too much at once?? Or WHYYYYYY half??
25:56 "is very similar to what happened in 1993 which was the first time that email was connected to the internet"
What the hell is Cathie talking about here
a) How do you "connect" email to the Internet? Email _is_ an Internet protocol. If it's not on the Internet... I don't know what it is, but it's not "email"
b) 1993? Try _1982._ That was when SMTP emerged and within a few years clients were written, daemons were written, and SMTP was in wide use across the Internet.
I've heard her say this twice now and I am genuinely baffled as to what she could possibly mean. BBSes and netmail, maybe...?
I think she means when the first major commercial Internet Service Providers hit the scene
I’m sure Yasin is smarter than he sounds
is this man explaining the company to the CEO of the company?
or are my delusions talking?
ARKK 5 year return: -3%. Meanwhile the s&p has returned 95%. Clearly her knowledge of macros has not made her a better investor.
When will environmental effects affect the bitcoin and other finances. Insurance companies are gouging home owners because others have dropped their policies. Saudia Arabia just suffered the greatest environmental threat ( floods ) that has spread across the globe including France, Houston, TX in US,. This all the while as there are what four regional wars going on? South Africa, Ukraine, Gaza, and other middle east conflicts. Both Weather and War impacting shipping, products, and manufacturing supplies.
😂
"One-in-a-row Wood" they call her 🙄
Hi Cathie, while I would love to believe in your deflationary scenario, and while I do believe there will be deflation in some sectors, you have continued to fail to address the elephant in the room. You have not once mentioned the Cloward-Piven strategy, which is being fully implemented as we speak. When small businesses and Tesla are trying to do one thing, the powers that be have the opposite objectives. I give us (the US) a 50/50 chance, which is up a lot since Elon bought Twitter.
No sound
I’ve got sound 👍
It's on your end.
While new technology needs props, I won’t believe in one side of the story without debate. Everyone’s opinion should only be taken as reference and no one should just follow someone else’s advice. The bitcoin has advantages as well as disadvantages. A good percentage of people don’t have internet access, 90% of crypto users centralized in brokers custody. No serious comparisons with gold as reserve discussed. Price target in million range is vastly exaggerated.
Also Cathie was wrong in interest rates control before inflation happened and after fed started tightening. If fed dropped rates when Cathie suggested, inflation would be out of control
Nope. She has been spot on with everything since the pandemic days. 🤡
On a rocket boo to da moon
ARKK appears to be on its way to new 52 week low.
😂😂🎉
Only going down to its real value :0.
The last 3 years she is calling for deflation constantly, when it comes she will say we said it. Well you were wrong for 3 years, and there is a big chance the fourth will come. And I think Cathie did not learned her lesson. Selling Zoom and Teladoc at the bottom and buying hyped stocks is imo not the right move when we finally going into rate cuts environment.
in a world where the economy isn't working for everyone , in fact, its not working for the majority. But Cathy wants to keep the status quo by protecting all the capital Gains. Im Sorry but capital Gains tax should be a lot closer to the lower to mid tax brackets, not below them. . why is it that we tax sweat, more than we tax capital gains? This lady has destroyed more of my wealth than all my other investments together. Even my own choices in individual stocks havent done as bad as her ETF, over the last 5 years. on top of that , she is still taking a rather LARGE fee. Come on Cathy, cut the extremly high fee you charge , until your funds at least get back to precovid 2020 levels.
2:32 -> “I would go crazy on this men if I was in my thirties.”
Cathie does WAAAY too much trading in AARK. The 5 year performance of AARK is 0. That’s not a typo. 0%. There is no conviction with any of her names except Tesla. And even that stock hasn’t moved in 4 years.
That's probably fair.
But wait 5 years and tell her this again
0%?
Get it right.
The 10 year return is circa 120%.
You’re an actual idiot.
It’s not the conviction, it’s the names. Stocks like ROKU and ZOOM are tremendous drags. With the advent of AI, most of the market’s innovation gains will accrue to the big boys (MSFT, NVDA, GOOG, etc.)
I hope tesla can hit 300 dollar 2025 otherwise im out
Too much crypto chat blah blah
Gold does not have an "issuance rate". 🤦♂
Commodities are absolutely limited in their supply on planet Earth, all we do is mine them out of the ground.
It's impossible to take you and your "research" seriously at this point. $14 BILLION in wealth destruction is simply criminal.
You sound butthurt