2 Notes: 1) After creating this video I found a better estimate for current LFP material prices. It's closer to $14/kg for an all inclusive price rather than $8/kg (materials price ex other). This means that in the short term, removing the licensing cost might save 2% rather than 3%. However, in that calculation I also didn't include the fixed cost of the license, which is millions of dollars per year...meaning the result still might be around 3%. 2) Shipping cost was probably underestimated quite a bit. The 1% was impact at the vehicle level and just shipping cell, so it's probably more like 5%. But, all this only reinforces my point that the LFP packs from won't be saving Tesla much money, if any. And also, that when they make them in house and in country, they'll be much cheaper! 3) Patents aren't the only reason why China moved quickly on LFP. Subsidies, material costs, and materials availability also factored in.
Panasonic (according to their last earnings call) should have also opened a new 2170 line @giganevada end of August capable of increasing production by about 10% so even more room (time) for 4680 development/ramp
@@lukasboscher9674 a high scrap rate isnt always bad, could be that another 10% are perfectly usable but the safety requirements are so high they get scrapped anyway, afterall better to have a slightly higher overall cost than to have to recall 100k's of cars because of potential fires, that doesnt just cost you money but standing/prestige as well
Thanks for covering this topic in detail. I ran across the LFP patenting and licensing issue just once about six months ago and I haven't seen it referenced again until this video. The LFP chemistry would also be a good fit for Tesla's power products since it would be safer, good endurance for recharging to max, typically not exposed to low temperatures, no problems sourcing iron and phosphorus, the weight penalty would be no issue and the price should be substantially less once the last patent issues clear. Tesla has 80,000 power walls on back order apparently, not to mention the megapacks.
Thanks for clearing up what was going on with these patents. There going away will be a big boost not only to getting batteries but getting them possibly made here in America. It also shows the sudden interest in so many Chinese manufacturers ready to start factories here in the states. They can take advantage of a technology they know well without a licensing fee.
Every single time I logically come to a question about TSLA or batteries in the market, you do a video on that exact subject. You are one of the most reason driven content creators. Thanks!
For years I’ve told everyone I know that has any interest in using batteries in an application appropriate for them that LFP is excellent for many reasons and really worth considering. I love the long cycle life mostly but the safety relative to other lithium ion chemistries is also great. I got my friend who was going to have a solar and battery system installed to use LFP instead of lead acid and I’m glad it’s going to last him so much longer.
Awesome finds....Jordan. fascinating story of behind curtain history of licensing of the technology. Never thought of looking into this topic before you highlighted it here.
Interesting video. I’m watching it 2 years after you released it. Pretty good predictions. I have a Tesla Y RWD produced in Shanghai. As far as I can tell it uses CATL prismatic LFP cells. Have to say it works great. The only slight problem is when the temperature drops below -15 degrees C and I need to do longer trips. The range decreases quite a lot and the Tesla struggle with pre-heating the battery. I usually have to spend a few minutes waiting for the battery to warm up before the fast charge starts. Another issue is if you leave it plugged in at the airport while being away for a week in cold weather. If I don’t switch off the charging manually it keeps topping up the battery and need to pre-heat every time. The pre-heat draws more power than it’s putting in to the battery. Once I found this out, I stop the charging and just leave it until I’m returning and then pre-condition the car right before I leave. Not a big problem though.
Thank you for this video. I saw all the hype about LFP lately and I was confused because I knew of the existence and superiority of these batteries ever since 2011 when dewalt used them in their 36v line-up of tools. People were using these to power their DIY electric bikes at that time as well.
Great job Jordan. Thank you for covering LFP in such detail. Still lingering for me is to understand if there are technical reasons or downside of making LFP in 4680 format. I saw your comment on twitter on battery format that Elon responded where he seems to favor the 4680 format for safety reasons over the pouch or prismatic formats but not directly mixing LFP and 4680 on the same sentence. On battery day or around I recall him commenting 4680 is flexible to many chemistries. Hopefully on a following battery episode you can cover what you know on this topic to date.
It would be nice if Tesla does make LFP batteries in 4680 Cylinder format. Right now, I think Tesla might be using CATL LFP batteries in other format than a cylinder one. I don't think CATL makes a Cylinder format batteries?
@@w0ttheh3ll Where could we find that? One week ago on Jordan's video comment section, or where? Edit: it's here in this comment section, probably a few comments down, keep scrolling
Thanks for the support! It was just pouch he had beef with, not prismatic. The variables are: Safety of the chemistry and safety of the form factor and energy contained in cell. LFP is safe, it can be used in large cells with minimal packaging. LFP has low volumetric energy density, which is why it's stored in large cubes. Whether Tesla puts it in a 4680 or not isn't due to safety, it's a matter of energy density...that all depends on the structural pack. Sorry, that's as far as I'll go here in the comments.
@@thelimitingfactor Agree and thank you for the replay. My point is that if LFP is not feasible in 4680 form it would be a big disadvantage as either Tesla would need to source it from another manufacturer for an overall less profit or Tesla has to build other manufacturing plants with all headaches and cost that implies but I guess that is probably not something that Tesla did not know before battery day otherwise 4680 significance and advantages will not be as previously though it would be.
Was hoping for a video on this topic from you! This one is most definitely Goodenough. Thanks Jordan. Let's chat later this year, we're overdue. I'll let you know when I get back home!
Thanks for the video and the detective work. Much appreciated. I've broken up my thoughts into separate comments so that you (or anyone) can reply to specific things. Regarding future LFP videos, I would like to see you address the other "eccentricities" such as more battery weight (because you have to use more batteries for the same range) and the requirement to charge to 100% for cell balancing.
Battery day hasn't reached it's one year anniversary yet, they did say it would take probably 3 years to realise all the advantages. So despite what some say they are still very much on target, it's just the fan boy channels shouting about products coming early, the latest being the $25000 car.
@Jesus Gonzalez I don't know if that's the case or not but when Tesla where starting out no US suppliers really wanted to work with them, that's what set Elon on the path of vertical integration, as they had to build things from scratch. So why wouldn't he have looked to get suppliers outside the country?
@Jesus Gonzalez compared to what? 85% in other "American made" cars? Just about all "national" brands are a marketing myth in a global economy. Even the Chinese firms outsource when it makes sense.
Jordan!!!! When you moving state side sir? I know you've done videos on Talga and Novonix in the past but can you please so something on Nouveau Monde Graphite if it makes sense for you. Thanks and EXCELLENT content!
I've got a set of (headway) LFP cells in my moped and they are mostly dead after a few hundred cycles (and several years of sitting about with occaisional maintenance charges). This was with very basic battery management to start with, so probably just shows that lithium cells of all types need good management otherwise they'll have relatively short lives.
And from Nano One...“Within milestone 2, Nano One has strengthened our process for both Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) and Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) cathode materials.” said Mr. Dan Blondal, CEO, “Nano One’s capabilities and capacity have also significantly increased in this milestone through the addition of staff and equipment and the tripling of our laboratory, pilot and office facilities. Nano One is now focused on milestone 3 which involves economic modeling and scaled up demonstration of both LFP and NMC.”
No wonder I ordered a M3 SR+ two days ago and already received the VIN # and the estimate delivery date is 9/10-9/20. It's blessing to hear LFP is better in the warm climate, like Seattle.
This is so smart on Tesla’s part, it can’t be a coincidence that the year they’re aiming for volume production of 4680s is the same year that the last LFP patent expires.
Potentially 4680 could also use LFP which (maybe??) would have the same range as the current NCA 2170, potentially at a discount over the current LR model. And/or they could offer a third option.."super long range" using 4680 and NCA.
Honestly, every time I'm reminded of the stupid decisions Hydro-Québec did, I'm actually appaled by how they decided to go against the flow of progress. In Canada, we could have been leaders in LiFePO4 cell manufacturing, but our power company decided against so.
The big issue with those public utilities companies (State / Crown corporations) is they are all contaminated by internal politics that are often going against general business interests. Do you remember the Avestor Scandal, that Hydro-Quebec spin-off (now called Blue Solution), which has been bought back by Bolloré after Avestor filed for Bankruptcy (and Bolloré got the whole business for pennies)? This is the perfect example where Hydro-Quebec's internal politics (resulting from some internal feuds between some high-level public servants within the bureaucracy) played against public interests. If it wouldn't have been of those feuds and conflicts, probably that Canada and Quebec, now, would have been light-years ahead from Chineses in matter on LFP technologies.
any comment on a LFP design with a Lithium metal anode? QS had a working prototype on this previously and it sounds really really interesting. Also when is your part 3 on QS coming out?
The original LFP Patent is Novel and therefore the Principal, The principal by licencing also owns the developments by the licensees, eg BT v Oracle, BT lost because it's original patent was not Novel enough to be relevant to Oracle and therefore could not perpetuate it's patent. George Stephenson built several steam loco's (Puffing Billy ect) under license of Richard Trevithicks Patents 1802 to 1808, but Robert Stephenson had to keep his developments under raps and hidden until 1828, to void being sued.
The most important point of the LFP is its safety. The disadvantage of the LFP is its energy density is lower than nickel cobalt lithium. This disadvantage is overcome by the BYD blade battery. Don't forget that the life span of the LFP is much longer than the LNC, that lower the overall price.
Patents can be US only or you can pay extra filing fees to include other countries to be bound by the patent. Apparently the original Univ. Tex. LFP patent was a US only patent, therefor it did not get patent coverage in any other country. I find it interesting that China isn't sponsoring a battery factory in Mexico.
your ability to learn and regurgitate(ntonus plebs) is 2nd to none I'm am. amazed at the density of your output and the ability to put this across to the GP thanks for your brain
Thanks man, I'v long waited this video about lfp. I live in finland, europe and I have bought superior lfp-cells from china 2 years now at wery low price. I guess patents don't matter much in here either. Thats why my bikes are quite unbelievable whit high performance and range now one can match at same price. I haven't got much sales yet, but still I am the bigest lfp-bull. Btw. Name "batman" is a short of the battery man :D
Using LFP allows them to pick and choose which type of batteries are utilized where for better products. Basically what you said, gives them more production capabilities.
Good question! It's because LFP's big achilles heel for range is volumetric energy density. Large prismatic cells maximise the amount of active cell material you can fit in a square pack. This'll be covered more in depth in the series.
@@thelimitingfactor aah I see. Do you think there would be any change in terms of 4680 LFP considering that the structural battery pack has higher energy density in terms of volume?
@@TAD-9 I'll will work through the details when I script that one. I have to run some numbers but I think I've put my finger on the key variables. I have to take a closer look at CATL/BYD cell to pack and see how it compares to Tesla's pack. Then, I have to factor in chemistry improvements.
Do we know that the LFP packs are prismatic? I always assumed they were also 2170 using the same pack architecture. Never seen a tear down of a LFP pack
So if GM switched to pouch LFP for the Bolt, and you can regularly charge to 100%, what would the range be. Seems like the Bolt is more suited for a metro car than long distance driver anyway.
That's hard to say because you'd have a heavier pack, possibly fysically bigger depending on spare room in current pack, though you could pack it differently (tighter) because you dont need as much cooling, the electronics are also a bit trickier (somehow LFP cells are harder to read/monitor than NMC/NCA)... Tesla mostly solved it by going with a bigger pack (60kwh Vs 55kwh) and thus only lost 10miles range (and legal cargo/weight carying capacity because the car is heavier). But based on that id say you'd lose atleast 15% range providing they can atleast fit the same amount of kwh's as current battery, which seems unlikely (tesla's 55kwh pack is the same fysical size as the 75kwh pack just less filled, so they had a lot of room to work with and even able to expand 5 more kwh).
@@moineaux9173 yes that's true, though they already use pouch/prismatic cells, but less cooling (and higher inherent safety) means tighter packaging is possible, but there's also a massive difference in not just wh/kg but volumetric density as well, and as i remember the bolts pack is pretty tightly packed to begin with
Jordan, what's the issue with lower voltage from LFP when it comes to energy storage? Requires more amp and thus heat or? Heard someone mention it as negative but wasn't sure why.. Also, given that batteries are a much higher percentage of total costs for storage vs cars then the cost savings will be more pronounced there than for cars, might support the somewhat timid gross margin in that segment?
1) Nothingburger. Ask them the exact voltage required to hit the heat performance targets of of a storage system. It's a silly comment because all batteries generate heat - what you need to know is the total system heat from all resistance sources and have thermal management in place for that specific case. 2) Energy storage has about 12 distinct use cases, which one are you going after? Each has different economics. Seasonal storage, load balancing, etc.
The problem for EV manufacturers - and particularly for Tesla - is that the rapid progress being made in battery manufacture has to be gradually introduced into EV production in order to avoid killing off complete order portfolios due to customers waiting for the next major improvement!
Although it is true you can get a couple thousand more cycles with LFP at full charge/discharge...the real benefit is you can get thousands more by short cycling from 10-90%. So...if you are putting around town with LFP your battery will degrade even slower. Youd only charge fully on a regular basis to balance or long trips. LFP cells need to be well balanced, and if so they will last for that 1M miles. I'm sure the software/hardware will manage this. LFP is going to be the catalyst for massive growth in the energy sector...
Jordan, you've got a lot on your plate! (14:28) Quantumscape(1), Gigacasting(3), LFP(2). Although, you don't sound like a person though that would be "working through" the videos at *random*. ;) Thanks for ALL the *excellent* content!
Wow... my take on this... and thanks btw for this... great video really well explained! My take is that first question... are patten laws a planetary established governing body? Or nation by nation, region by region? What keeps any other country from using another countries invention? Or breakthrough? And if Canada filed a patten the same year China got involved and began and solved the next part of the problem... I see it as for China as well as Texas Austin College place that first created it would’ve pattened it too for them to use if they know what they had was a valuable piece to puzzle... so the 20 year statute runs out for ALL POSSIBLE patents the counter starts the minute someone... anyone patents and all other before begin too... no
I think the reason China is pushing LFP is that their NCA (or NMC, or whatever) industry is not that strong. They want to protect their factories and it wouldn't surprise me if there was a behind the scenes deal with Tesla to offer LFP. The deal could have been a prerequisite to Tesla being allowed to build a plant in China as opposed to China protecting their own auto industry.
You've probably already answered this, so sorry if that's the case, would you be able to make an lfp battery in a 4680 format and would that even make sense from cost or performance?
The variables are: Safety of the chemistry and safety of the form factor and energy contained in cell. LFP is safe, it can be used in large cells with minimal packaging. LFP has low volumetric energy density, which is why it's stored in large cubes. Whether Tesla puts it in a 4680 or not isn't due to safety, it's a matter of energy density...that all depends on the structural pack. Sorry, that's as far as I'll go here in the comments.
Thx as always for the great video Jordan! Exciting opportunities once those patents expire. Good digging! By the way, I saw the awesome question you asked Elon on Twitter that started a good discussion. Congrats and very cool!
Has anyone done a teardown of the Model 3 LFP pack? I'm curious if it's prismatic, or jelly-roll technology and if it's prismatic, what is the actual cell size (mAh/Wh).
I'm a little confused are you saying here that the 1 million battery is LFP? my understanding was that it was nickel based. I see the chart says 4k cycles for LFP. Is the napkin math for a model 3 standard 273 miles * 4k cycles = 1M miles?
Great summary and great work again. I do know, in-person, some of those inventors declared in those patents and I can confirm that most of what you are reporting is factual and your own interpretation is pretty close to reality. A few more information for you: one of the reasons why UofTexas and Hydro-Quebec let the Chineses develop a domestic LFP maket on it's own territory is that Chineses patents are almost..... worthless. Even though it would have been protected under a Chinese patent, it's well known that is almost impossible to sue a Chinese corporation on it's own territory for patent infringement due to their arbitrary legal system that tend to systematically protect Chinese corporations. Therefore, why bother getting a Chinese patent, when the emitting government don't plan to enforce it on it's own territory?
Thanks for a the great video, can't wait for more. Question- are Tesla LFP batteries still cylindrical form factor or is it an entirely different pack design?
@@thelimitingfactor I don't know that I am fixated per say, but more curious about how interchangeable they are for assembly. It sounds like current Model 3 LFP is not cylindrical? So it's an entirely different pack then? I am thinking about it more from the perspective of how many battery pack assembly lines you need for different chemistries.
But I mean...if it's marginally worse but with even few clear advantages...besides the material abundance and lack of dirty ones...and if the price is good...and if the tech is there to ramp it up...7 months is absolutely nothing even if tesla pays couple hundred millions extra to get a pole position in the race...it really starts to look like an extremely plausible future for the small car business and the energy storage. Like really really good. People don't care what's in their cars as long as it's safe cheap, reliable and not catastrophically bad performance-wise..and they absolutely don't care what's in a energy storage pack...
Dam Jordan, once again you’ve hit it out of the park. Your “Master Classes” on battery tech are unrivaled ANYWHERE. Battery tech is THE Key to sustainable energy and I’m perplexed why you don’t have at least a million subscribers. Do you think LFP could be the savior of Legacy auto makers trying to make the switch to electric?
LFP are safer, have longer charge life and can be full charged without significant degradation. Premium models where higher power density is a selling point would continue to use Ni based chemistry, but mass-produced models should use LFP.
I drive a MIC Model 3SR+ in Europe so it has the LFP battery. I can personally say it is awesome! I’ve never had to worry about the range and charging to 100% all the time is so much easier and less stressful, especially since I can’t charge at home. Not having to worry about the battery’s longevity is a godsend.
@@cyclopsvision6370 For sure, but all do. It doesn't affect my daily driving at all (only about 60 km round trip commute) and I haven't done any road trips in winter yet, but with the supercharger availability in Europe, I don't expect it to be an issue. For a quick comparison though, a round trip to work and back in the winter uses about 10% battery, while in the summer I only need 7-8%, depending on speed.
@@cyclopsvision6370 Since I can't charge at home, no. But I would if I could. I guess I should also clarify, European winters are fairly mild. I'm sure I'd have much more trouble if I lived in the Northern US or Canada. But then I'd also probably have a garage and a way to warm up the battery. lol
I supplied all the information you need to work that out. If you look at Tesla's pack cost and the shipping cost I factored, you'll quickly realise that I was very conservative.
had a thought about Tesla being a utility, battery formation will push and pull a lot of power at a 100gwhr annualized production rate, if they had a hige set of solar array to build the charge, they'd need the energy to go somewhere after xharge formation, so being a utility allows them to monetize the charge formation process into a utility scale electricity grid service peaker etc provider
"Like any battery, LFP has some eccentricities". Yes, and one of those, as you pointed out, is cold weather performance. The chart you showed was from Nat. Energy (not Tesla?) so I'm not sure how well Tesla's thermal management system will mitigate this issue. Anecdotal reports from China say it's not mitigated very well, and certainly not to the extent shown in the chart. I'm anxious to see more data on that.
@@tommckinney1489 he linked a super interesting research paper on twitter that showed amazing performance from LFP when properly thermally managed. The drain from the preconditioning is significantly less than the loss from running at a sub optimal temperature. Even better than NCA without thermal management.
@@samuelprice538 thanks. Preconditioning is available now for most EVs yet people don't know about it or do it. I guess it's a learning curve, but it may be difficult to precondition if you aren't plugged in, like at work or at the mall, etc. Don't misunderstand me, there are pros and cons to everything. But I don't think people really understand (yet) how important it is to precondition and charge to 100% when using LFP.
@@tommckinney1489 this is about battery preconditioning not cabin. Its done using heating stripes built right into the cells. Apparently it can bring the cells up to temperature within 90 seconds so no need for the user to wait. It happens as you start driving.
The article on TM LFP indicates very strong supercharging ability of 6+C without degredation. Currently LFP M3s seem to have worse SCing. If Tesla can sort this out it would make the LFP SR M3 better for long journeys than the LR where ubiquitous HP charging is available.
2 Notes:
1) After creating this video I found a better estimate for current LFP material prices. It's closer to $14/kg for an all inclusive price rather than $8/kg (materials price ex other).
This means that in the short term, removing the licensing cost might save 2% rather than 3%. However, in that calculation I also didn't include the fixed cost of the license, which is millions of dollars per year...meaning the result still might be around 3%.
2) Shipping cost was probably underestimated quite a bit. The 1% was impact at the vehicle level and just shipping cell, so it's probably more like 5%. But, all this only reinforces my point that the LFP packs from won't be saving Tesla much money, if any. And also, that when they make them in house and in country, they'll be much cheaper!
3) Patents aren't the only reason why China moved quickly on LFP. Subsidies, material costs, and materials availability also factored in.
Panasonic (according to their last earnings call) should have also opened a new 2170 line @giganevada end of August capable of increasing production by about 10% so even more room (time) for 4680 development/ramp
@@lukasboscher9674 a high scrap rate isnt always bad, could be that another 10% are perfectly usable but the safety requirements are so high they get scrapped anyway, afterall better to have a slightly higher overall cost than to have to recall 100k's of cars because of potential fires, that doesnt just cost you money but standing/prestige as well
Thanks for covering this topic in detail. I ran across the LFP patenting and licensing issue just once about six months ago and I haven't seen it referenced again until this video. The LFP chemistry would also be a good fit for Tesla's power products since it would be safer, good endurance for recharging to max, typically not exposed to low temperatures, no problems sourcing iron and phosphorus, the weight penalty would be no issue and the price should be substantially less once the last patent issues clear. Tesla has 80,000 power walls on back order apparently, not to mention the megapacks.
Good job, this a great video on LFP batteries and the paten. 👍😊
2or3% for amass produced product is significant. Tesla is chasing pennies to save per product. 3% is huge
Mr. Jon Goodenough really is one of the GOAT's.
I'd buy the LFP variant, I think it's Goodenough.
I see what you did there. 😬🤣
I was hoping for this :P
Haven't watched the video yet, but *nice* topic! LFP is far more relevant for the next five years than Quantumscape.
Absolutely!
Thanks for clearing up what was going on with these patents. There going away will be a big boost not only to getting batteries but getting them possibly made here in America. It also shows the sudden interest in so many Chinese manufacturers ready to start factories here in the states. They can take advantage of a technology they know well without a licensing fee.
Not only in the US but also in Europe
Great job as always! LFP patent expiration is interesting and exciting.
Every single time I logically come to a question about TSLA or batteries in the market, you do a video on that exact subject. You are one of the most reason driven content creators. Thanks!
Brilliant depth and insight. Jordan, you provide an exemplary service and educational experience. I learn so much every time. Thanks.
5 bonus points for correctly pronouncing Cliff’s Notes
For years I’ve told everyone I know that has any interest in using batteries in an application appropriate for them that LFP is excellent for many reasons and really worth considering. I love the long cycle life mostly but the safety relative to other lithium ion chemistries is also great. I got my friend who was going to have a solar and battery system installed to use LFP instead of lead acid and I’m glad it’s going to last him so much longer.
Awesome finds....Jordan. fascinating story of behind curtain history of licensing of the technology. Never thought of looking into this topic before you highlighted it here.
I wish I had seen this video 6 months ago, excellent information!
I wished this episode was 60 minutes...great job as always
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what a great video! Thank you for educating the masses on LFP. When I grow up, I hope to be 10% of your intelligence.
Your comments intention is goodenough
Interesting video. I’m watching it 2 years after you released it. Pretty good predictions.
I have a Tesla Y RWD produced in Shanghai. As far as I can tell it uses CATL prismatic LFP cells.
Have to say it works great.
The only slight problem is when the temperature drops below -15 degrees C and I need to do longer trips. The range decreases quite a lot and the Tesla struggle with pre-heating the battery. I usually have to spend a few minutes waiting for the battery to warm up before the fast charge starts.
Another issue is if you leave it plugged in at the airport while being away for a week in cold weather. If I don’t switch off the charging manually it keeps topping up the battery and need to pre-heat every time. The pre-heat draws more power than it’s putting in to the battery. Once I found this out, I stop the charging and just leave it until I’m returning and then pre-condition the car right before I leave.
Not a big problem though.
As always, great work. Thanks so much Jordan! All the best.
Great vlog lots of info really enjoy your effort to dig deep , thanks for work 👍👍👍👏👏👏👏
Thank you for this video. I saw all the hype about LFP lately and I was confused because I knew of the existence and superiority of these batteries ever since 2011 when dewalt used them in their 36v line-up of tools. People were using these to power their DIY electric bikes at that time as well.
Such an interesting story. Thanks for the video.
Great job Jordan. Thank you for covering LFP in such detail. Still lingering for me is to understand if there are technical reasons or downside of making LFP in 4680 format. I saw your comment on twitter on battery format that Elon responded where he seems to favor the 4680 format for safety reasons over the pouch or prismatic formats but not directly mixing LFP and 4680 on the same sentence. On battery day or around I recall him commenting 4680 is flexible to many chemistries. Hopefully on a following battery episode you can cover what you know on this topic to date.
It would be nice if Tesla does make LFP batteries in 4680 Cylinder format. Right now, I think Tesla might be using CATL LFP batteries in other format than a cylinder one. I don't think CATL makes a Cylinder format batteries?
Look at TeslaInsights's comment from one week ago where Jordan talks about what you asked.
@@w0ttheh3ll Where could we find that?
One week ago on Jordan's video comment section, or where?
Edit: it's here in this comment section, probably a few comments down, keep scrolling
Thanks for the support! It was just pouch he had beef with, not prismatic. The variables are: Safety of the chemistry and safety of the form factor and energy contained in cell. LFP is safe, it can be used in large cells with minimal packaging. LFP has low volumetric energy density, which is why it's stored in large cubes. Whether Tesla puts it in a 4680 or not isn't due to safety, it's a matter of energy density...that all depends on the structural pack. Sorry, that's as far as I'll go here in the comments.
@@thelimitingfactor Agree and thank you for the replay. My point is that if LFP is not feasible in 4680 form it would be a big disadvantage as either Tesla would need to source it from another manufacturer for an overall less profit or Tesla has to build other manufacturing plants with all headaches and cost that implies but I guess that is probably not something that Tesla did not know before battery day otherwise 4680 significance and advantages will not be as previously though it would be.
Was hoping for a video on this topic from you!
This one is most definitely Goodenough. Thanks Jordan.
Let's chat later this year, we're overdue. I'll let you know when I get back home!
LOL, the PUNisher. Sure thing man. Trying to move back ASAP. So much more difficult with COVID
Really well explained and taught
Grateful
Perfect timing. I have been looking this up myself - legal implications...
Nice work again!
Thanks for the video and the detective work. Much appreciated. I've broken up my thoughts into separate comments so that you (or anyone) can reply to specific things. Regarding future LFP videos, I would like to see you address the other "eccentricities" such as more battery weight (because you have to use more batteries for the same range) and the requirement to charge to 100% for cell balancing.
We'll go deep
Battery day hasn't reached it's one year anniversary yet, they did say it would take probably 3 years to realise all the advantages. So despite what some say they are still very much on target, it's just the fan boy channels shouting about products coming early, the latest being the $25000 car.
@Jesus Gonzalez I don't know if that's the case or not but when Tesla where starting out no US suppliers really wanted to work with them, that's what set Elon on the path of vertical integration, as they had to build things from scratch. So why wouldn't he have looked to get suppliers outside the country?
@Jesus Gonzalez compared to what? 85% in other "American made" cars? Just about all "national" brands are a marketing myth in a global economy. Even the Chinese firms outsource when it makes sense.
Those tesla fangirls channels are super annoying, I'm going to stop watching videos about tesla, enough is enough.
Jordan!!!! When you moving state side sir? I know you've done videos on Talga and Novonix in the past but can you please so something on Nouveau Monde Graphite if it makes sense for you. Thanks and EXCELLENT content!
Hopefully soon, lol. So much difficulties on account of COVID
What a treat!!
A treat indeed.
Thorough, excellent, exciting and clear. You are our Guru, 🙏 amaste
The next series from you is going to be another banger. I look forward to it.
Thanks for the good talk.
been powering my house w LFP 5 years - works well
I've got a set of (headway) LFP cells in my moped and they are mostly dead after a few hundred cycles (and several years of sitting about with occaisional maintenance charges). This was with very basic battery management to start with, so probably just shows that lithium cells of all types need good management otherwise they'll have relatively short lives.
Thank you for your insight, you are the only person that see this coming.
I used to own stock in A123. Didn’t go nearly as well as my $TSLA 😂
And from Nano One...“Within milestone 2, Nano One has strengthened our process for both Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) and Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) cathode materials.” said Mr. Dan Blondal, CEO, “Nano One’s capabilities and capacity have also significantly increased in this milestone through the addition of staff and equipment and the tripling of our laboratory, pilot and office facilities. Nano One is now focused on milestone 3 which involves economic modeling and scaled up demonstration of both LFP and NMC.”
Nano one makes a sweet LFP cathode material. Hard to tell how far along their joint development agreements are though.
Thanks for the great research.
No wonder I ordered a M3 SR+ two days ago and already received the VIN # and the estimate delivery date is 9/10-9/20. It's blessing to hear LFP is better in the warm climate, like Seattle.
This is so smart on Tesla’s part, it can’t be a coincidence that the year they’re aiming for volume production of 4680s is the same year that the last LFP patent expires.
Other manufacturers and companies/suppliers are also going to benefit from the situation, you're welcome mate.
You've got great pipes brother. You're very easy to listen to.
🤜🤛
Potentially 4680 could also use LFP which (maybe??) would have the same range as the current NCA 2170, potentially at a discount over the current LR model. And/or they could offer a third option.."super long range" using 4680 and NCA.
Honestly, every time I'm reminded of the stupid decisions Hydro-Québec did, I'm actually appaled by how they decided to go against the flow of progress.
In Canada, we could have been leaders in LiFePO4 cell manufacturing, but our power company decided against so.
The big issue with those public utilities companies (State / Crown corporations) is they are all contaminated by internal politics that are often going against general business interests. Do you remember the Avestor Scandal, that Hydro-Quebec spin-off (now called Blue Solution), which has been bought back by Bolloré after Avestor filed for Bankruptcy (and Bolloré got the whole business for pennies)? This is the perfect example where Hydro-Quebec's internal politics (resulting from some internal feuds between some high-level public servants within the bureaucracy) played against public interests. If it wouldn't have been of those feuds and conflicts, probably that Canada and Quebec, now, would have been light-years ahead from Chineses in matter on LFP technologies.
any comment on a LFP design with a Lithium metal anode? QS had a working prototype on this previously and it sounds really really interesting. Also when is your part 3 on QS coming out?
OK I can no longer receive this incredible content for free . Signed up on Patreon today. Keep up the great work Jordan.
The original LFP Patent is Novel and therefore the Principal, The principal by licencing also owns the developments by the licensees, eg BT v Oracle, BT lost because it's original patent was not Novel enough to be relevant to Oracle and therefore could not perpetuate it's patent. George Stephenson built several steam loco's (Puffing Billy ect) under license of Richard Trevithicks Patents 1802 to 1808,
but Robert Stephenson had to keep his developments under raps and hidden until 1828, to void being sued.
Amazing content👑!
The most important point of the LFP is its safety. The disadvantage of the LFP is its energy density is lower than nickel cobalt lithium. This disadvantage is overcome by the BYD blade battery. Don't forget that the life span of the LFP is much longer than the LNC, that lower the overall price.
The one I’ve been waiting for. Thanks, Jordan!
Sure thing buddy!
Patents can be US only or you can pay extra filing fees to include other countries to be bound by the patent. Apparently the original Univ. Tex. LFP patent was a US only patent, therefor it did not get patent coverage in any other country. I find it interesting that China isn't sponsoring a battery factory in Mexico.
your ability to learn and regurgitate(ntonus plebs) is 2nd to none
I'm am. amazed at the density of your output
and the ability to put this across to the GP
thanks for your brain
非常感谢你的视频，视频水准很高，收获不小！谢谢！
Thanks man, I'v long waited this video about lfp. I live in finland, europe and I have bought superior lfp-cells from china 2 years now at wery low price. I guess patents don't matter much in here either. Thats why my bikes are quite unbelievable whit high performance and range now one can match at same price. I haven't got much sales yet, but still I am the bigest lfp-bull. Btw. Name "batman" is a short of the battery man :D
LFP being able to handle heat and DC charging like a champ is two advantage I'll glade they the lower density for. 400-500km is enough for me.
Thank you!
Wow, Hydro Quebec! Interesting... 🤓
Using LFP allows them to pick and choose which type of batteries are utilized where for better products. Basically what you said, gives them more production capabilities.
Great video! Can't wait for the upcoming videos on LFP. Quick question though, how come we don't see cylindrical LFP cells?
Good question! It's because LFP's big achilles heel for range is volumetric energy density. Large prismatic cells maximise the amount of active cell material you can fit in a square pack. This'll be covered more in depth in the series.
@@thelimitingfactor aah I see. Do you think there would be any change in terms of 4680 LFP considering that the structural battery pack has higher energy density in terms of volume?
@@TAD-9 I'll will work through the details when I script that one. I have to run some numbers but I think I've put my finger on the key variables. I have to take a closer look at CATL/BYD cell to pack and see how it compares to Tesla's pack. Then, I have to factor in chemistry improvements.
Do we know that the LFP packs are prismatic? I always assumed they were also 2170 using the same pack architecture. Never seen a tear down of a LFP pack
@@Pedrodemio they are prismatic. There are pictures floating around on the internet of the lfp pack.
@9:40 you mention dependence on nickel, but LFP doesn't need cobalt either...probably more important than the nickel "cost"...
Cobalt is used at about 1% of the pack. Doesn't really impact pack cost. People are getting away from it due to child labor.
So if GM switched to pouch LFP for the Bolt, and you can regularly charge to 100%, what would the range be. Seems like the Bolt is more suited for a metro car than long distance driver anyway.
That's hard to say because you'd have a heavier pack, possibly fysically bigger depending on spare room in current pack, though you could pack it differently (tighter) because you dont need as much cooling, the electronics are also a bit trickier (somehow LFP cells are harder to read/monitor than NMC/NCA)...
Tesla mostly solved it by going with a bigger pack (60kwh Vs 55kwh) and thus only lost 10miles range (and legal cargo/weight carying capacity because the car is heavier).
But based on that id say you'd lose atleast 15% range providing they can atleast fit the same amount of kwh's as current battery, which seems unlikely (tesla's 55kwh pack is the same fysical size as the 75kwh pack just less filled, so they had a lot of room to work with and even able to expand 5 more kwh).
@@quantaca5773 wrong, because the pouch cells configurations means tighter battery cells and packs arrangements.
@@moineaux9173 yes that's true, though they already use pouch/prismatic cells, but less cooling (and higher inherent safety) means tighter packaging is possible, but there's also a massive difference in not just wh/kg but volumetric density as well, and as i remember the bolts pack is pretty tightly packed to begin with
Great details
Jordan, what's the issue with lower voltage from LFP when it comes to energy storage? Requires more amp and thus heat or? Heard someone mention it as negative but wasn't sure why..
Also, given that batteries are a much higher percentage of total costs for storage vs cars then the cost savings will be more pronounced there than for cars, might support the somewhat timid gross margin in that segment?
1) Nothingburger. Ask them the exact voltage required to hit the heat performance targets of of a storage system. It's a silly comment because all batteries generate heat - what you need to know is the total system heat from all resistance sources and have thermal management in place for that specific case.
2) Energy storage has about 12 distinct use cases, which one are you going after? Each has different economics. Seasonal storage, load balancing, etc.
Always a pleasure to touch base with the benchmark. Thanks for your work.
The problem for EV manufacturers - and particularly for Tesla - is that the rapid progress being made in battery manufacture has to be gradually introduced into EV production in order to avoid killing off complete order portfolios due to customers waiting for the next major improvement!
Although it is true you can get a couple thousand more cycles with LFP at full charge/discharge...the real benefit is you can get thousands more by short cycling from 10-90%.
So...if you are putting around town with LFP your battery will degrade even slower. Youd only charge fully on a regular basis to balance or long trips. LFP cells need to be well balanced, and if so they will last for that 1M miles. I'm sure the software/hardware will manage this.
LFP is going to be the catalyst for massive growth in the energy sector...
Amen!
Jordan, you've got a lot on your plate! (14:28) Quantumscape(1), Gigacasting(3), LFP(2). Although, you don't sound like a person though that would be "working through" the videos at *random*. ;)
Thanks for ALL the *excellent* content!
Hehehe, correct! I have a plan. I'm leaving a bit of breathing room for black swans 😁
@@thelimitingfactor
I was going to ask
"So, what are you doing next week?" 😉(Assuming you finish those)
Wow... my take on this... and thanks btw for this... great video really well explained! My take is that first question... are patten laws a planetary established governing body? Or nation by nation, region by region? What keeps any other country from using another countries invention? Or breakthrough? And if Canada filed a patten the same year China got involved and began and solved the next part of the problem... I see it as for China as well as Texas Austin College place that first created it would’ve pattened it too for them to use if they know what they had was a valuable piece to puzzle... so the 20 year statute runs out for ALL POSSIBLE patents the counter starts the minute someone... anyone patents and all other before begin too... no
Terrific insight 👏🏼
I think the reason China is pushing LFP is that their NCA (or NMC, or whatever) industry is not that strong. They want to protect their factories and it wouldn't surprise me if there was a behind the scenes deal with Tesla to offer LFP. The deal could have been a prerequisite to Tesla being allowed to build a plant in China as opposed to China protecting their own auto industry.
exactly
Very interesting.
How about the man in the street? Can he embark upon LFP production when these patents expire?
You've probably already answered this, so sorry if that's the case, would you be able to make an lfp battery in a 4680 format and would that even make sense from cost or performance?
The variables are: Safety of the chemistry and safety of the form factor and energy contained in cell. LFP is safe, it can be used in large cells with minimal packaging. LFP has low volumetric energy density, which is why it's stored in large cubes. Whether Tesla puts it in a 4680 or not isn't due to safety, it's a matter of energy density...that all depends on the structural pack. Sorry, that's as far as I'll go here in the comments.
@@thelimitingfactor thank you for your time 🙂
Thx as always for the great video Jordan! Exciting opportunities once those patents expire. Good digging! By the way, I saw the awesome question you asked Elon on Twitter that started a good discussion. Congrats and very cool!
😀 Sure thing man! And yeah...my first response from Elon. Glad it was something useful for people! Learned a lot as a result.
Has anyone done a teardown of the Model 3 LFP pack? I'm curious if it's prismatic, or jelly-roll technology and if it's prismatic, what is the actual cell size (mAh/Wh).
this is like Christmas. Qunatumscape, Gigia Casting and LFP. 3 of my favourite things. Thanks Jordan
6:45 very interesting. Didn't ABC123 batteries have to also pay licensing fees when producing LiFePo4 cells?
Yup, the visueals showing all the patents was from their licencing agreement.
I'm a little confused are you saying here that the 1 million battery is LFP? my understanding was that it was nickel based. I see the chart says 4k cycles for LFP. Is the napkin math for a model 3 standard 273 miles * 4k cycles = 1M miles?
LFP is Iron based. Yes, 1M for 4k cycles... you have to account for degradation
F stands for Ferro. Google it
Battchat is where it's AT
So does this mean that all other manufacturers outside China (Panasonic, Samsung etc...) are free to develop LFP batteries without patent constraints?
Yup
Thoughts on ESS, Inc’s Iron-based “Energy Warehouses”?
Lots of thoughts. I'm not sure what you actually want to know though.
@@thelimitingfactor Looking for drawbacks, since it seems ideal for its use case...better than tesla's megapacks.
Good stuff
Merci!
De rien!
Note: mine blown at 4:55 so.... china's is just clear to open bore mass produce LFP Model Y/3s in China . that is HUGE
Bingo! Flood gates opening
You are phenomenal! So much patience to dig up those info...
😊
Great summary and great work again. I do know, in-person, some of those inventors declared in those patents and I can confirm that most of what you are reporting is factual and your own interpretation is pretty close to reality. A few more information for you: one of the reasons why UofTexas and Hydro-Quebec let the Chineses develop a domestic LFP maket on it's own territory is that Chineses patents are almost..... worthless. Even though it would have been protected under a Chinese patent, it's well known that is almost impossible to sue a Chinese corporation on it's own territory for patent infringement due to their arbitrary legal system that tend to systematically protect Chinese corporations. Therefore, why bother getting a Chinese patent, when the emitting government don't plan to enforce it on it's own territory?
QuantumScape just announced they are also working on Iron
😂
Source?
IMPORTANT. If they can make it work...huge
@@thelimitingfactor If they can make it work outside of a lab... fixed it for you.... 😂
@Jesus Gonzalez your full of sh!t stop spamming. It's closer to 25% for a US made tesla. That's why tesla was awarded most American made car this year
so maybe I missed it will there be LFP 4680 cells??
This was a video about patents, as part of a series.
Thanks for a the great video, can't wait for more. Question- are Tesla LFP batteries still cylindrical form factor or is it an entirely different pack design?
4680. But it doesn't matter for LFP because it's a safe chemistry. I'm not sure why everyone is fixated on form factor.
@@thelimitingfactor I don't know that I am fixated per say, but more curious about how interchangeable they are for assembly. It sounds like current Model 3 LFP is not cylindrical? So it's an entirely different pack then? I am thinking about it more from the perspective of how many battery pack assembly lines you need for different chemistries.
This video is incredible.
But I mean...if it's marginally worse but with even few clear advantages...besides the material abundance and lack of dirty ones...and if the price is good...and if the tech is there to ramp it up...7 months is absolutely nothing even if tesla pays couple hundred millions extra to get a pole position in the race...it really starts to look like an extremely plausible future for the small car business and the energy storage. Like really really good. People don't care what's in their cars as long as it's safe cheap, reliable and not catastrophically bad performance-wise..and they absolutely don't care what's in a energy storage pack...
Dam Jordan, once again you’ve hit it out of the park. Your “Master Classes” on battery tech are unrivaled ANYWHERE. Battery tech is THE Key to sustainable energy and I’m perplexed why you don’t have at least a million subscribers. Do you think LFP could be the savior of Legacy auto makers trying to make the switch to electric?
Thanks man! Oh boy, great question. I don't think so, because you have to start with premium vehicles and work down from there.
👍
LFP are safer, have longer charge life and can be full charged without significant degradation. Premium models where higher power density is a selling point would continue to use Ni based chemistry, but mass-produced models should use LFP.
I drive a MIC Model 3SR+ in Europe so it has the LFP battery. I can personally say it is awesome! I’ve never had to worry about the range and charging to 100% all the time is so much easier and less stressful, especially since I can’t charge at home. Not having to worry about the battery’s longevity is a godsend.
@@cyclopsvision6370 For sure, but all do. It doesn't affect my daily driving at all (only about 60 km round trip commute) and I haven't done any road trips in winter yet, but with the supercharger availability in Europe, I don't expect it to be an issue.
For a quick comparison though, a round trip to work and back in the winter uses about 10% battery, while in the summer I only need 7-8%, depending on speed.
@@cyclopsvision6370 Since I can't charge at home, no. But I would if I could. I guess I should also clarify, European winters are fairly mild. I'm sure I'd have much more trouble if I lived in the Northern US or Canada. But then I'd also probably have a garage and a way to warm up the battery. lol
So LFP pricing in China vs the US is about a 30% delta, this report accounts for about 15%, where is the other 15%?
I supplied all the information you need to work that out.
If you look at Tesla's pack cost and the shipping cost I factored, you'll quickly realise that I was very conservative.
80% yield? That is crazy low. I would expect 99%. Is there dirt in the battery materials?
Lol, nah, just what happens when tolerances are nanometers and the line is moving at 80 meters per minute
Price difference between LFP made in China is more like 50% of the cost of a Tesla batteries both styles. LFP have more advantages than disadvantages
Source? That's not backed up by public or numbers coming from people in the industry.
Silly me... I always thought it was Cliff Notes.
But I defer to your anal accuracy (which I find supremely comforting) and superior education. 😵💫
had a thought about Tesla being a utility, battery formation will push and pull a lot of power at a 100gwhr annualized production rate, if they had a hige set of solar array to build the charge, they'd need the energy to go somewhere after xharge formation, so being a utility allows them to monetize the charge formation process into a utility scale electricity grid service peaker etc provider
"Like any battery, LFP has some eccentricities". Yes, and one of those, as you pointed out, is cold weather performance. The chart you showed was from Nat. Energy (not Tesla?) so I'm not sure how well Tesla's thermal management system will mitigate this issue. Anecdotal reports from China say it's not mitigated very well, and certainly not to the extent shown in the chart. I'm anxious to see more data on that.
You just have to let it warm up with pre-conditioning. If you're impatient or don't use the app, then it will be a frustration.
@@thelimitingfactor Thanks. I guess that's ok as long as you're plugged in. Otherwise the battery cannibalizes itself (as do all EV batteries)
@@tommckinney1489 he linked a super interesting research paper on twitter that showed amazing performance from LFP when properly thermally managed. The drain from the preconditioning is significantly less than the loss from running at a sub optimal temperature. Even better than NCA without thermal management.
@@samuelprice538 thanks. Preconditioning is available now for most EVs yet people don't know about it or do it. I guess it's a learning curve, but it may be difficult to precondition if you aren't plugged in, like at work or at the mall, etc. Don't misunderstand me, there are pros and cons to everything. But I don't think people really understand (yet) how important it is to precondition and charge to 100% when using LFP.
@@tommckinney1489 this is about battery preconditioning not cabin. Its done using heating stripes built right into the cells. Apparently it can bring the cells up to temperature within 90 seconds so no need for the user to wait. It happens as you start driving.
The article on TM LFP indicates very strong supercharging ability of 6+C without degredation. Currently LFP M3s seem to have worse SCing. If Tesla can sort this out it would make the LFP SR M3 better for long journeys than the LR where ubiquitous HP charging is available.