If we're talking only in the context of an industry that needs a lot of cheap labor, then it's true. But if the talk is focused on the technological aspect, then the Chinese economic miracle is only at the beginning stage.
@@couttsw Not really, in fact my country was one of the biggest victims of communism propaganda in the past. thousands of my countrymen were killed by the communists aided by weapons from the USSR and CCP. But, as a rationalist and as a person who has had the opportunity to travel around China for months, I agree that currently Chinese industry is moving from cheap labor-intensive industry to technology-intensive. We know now that Huawei has started to make their own OS and high-end chips that have been recognized worldwide and even surprised America. We also know that their dominance in 5G shows how Chinese technology has grown and dominated in recent years, so America must use its influence to stop China from dominating 5G technology. In crypto technology, we also know that Bitmain, Iceriver, etc. were all created in China from the start. And there are many other examples that show that China is pioneering its dominance in high technology-based industries. including in the electric car industry.
People or 'experts' who keep harping on how 'low' / 'slow' is the economic growth of China in recent years are either dumb or deliberately lying (or both). The reason is simple - the absolute SIZE of the Chinese economy today is multiple TIMES than it was 10 or 20 years ago. Hence, even an 'average' of 5% economic growth today would roughly be the same increase (in dollars amount) of a '10%' in the past. Just simple arithmetic. In 1984, China grew by 15.2%, and averaged over +10% annually through 2005, so 2023 growth dropping to a mere 5% is a big drop. Thing is, when China grew +15.2% in 1984, their economy was only $260 Billion USD (nominal), so they grew by +$40 Billion. In 2023, China's economy is $18 Trillion USD (nominal), so +5% growth adds +$900 Billion, 22.5 times greater than their 1984 growth and roughly 3.5 times the ENTIRE 1984 Chinese economy. In contrast, the USA will be lucky to add +$20 Billion to their economy, and it'll mostly be FIRE (Finance, Insurance & Real Estate) growth, rather than "real" industrial production and trade in goods. The UK is going into recession, Germany is in "technical" recession, and Japan has been ZERO growth for decades. Meanwhile, sanctioned Russia is expected to grow by +3%, faster than the USA.When people like Adrian Zeihan and Gordon Chang keeps being the nvited to talk and explain why the PRC is "collapsing", we, the informed people, can only wet our pants of laughing.
The Chinese people don’t event trust their own “experts” , most of whom are just propaganda vehicles of the Communist party. Why should Asian Society give them a platform for their narratives? if anyone want to hear those brainwashing bullshit they can just go to see CGTV, the network owned by China.
That's very strange because what the speaker said is contradictory to what we see on the ground. Tier 3 and 4 cities had more tourist than they can handle. Slowing real estate sector is counted-balanced by the booming of automobiles, semiconductor, new energy, fashion and movie scene. FDI from western world is quickly replaced by West Asia sovereign fund. Record number of scholars is returning from United states. The speaker painted picture of china that doesn't reflect reality.
They think if they keep repeating something, it will become true. They've said it a million times for the last 20 years, that china has grown tremendously but it's now the end. They have the memory capacity of a goldfish. They will never learn and their naivety will eventually lead to their demise
The sectors you mentioned are not comparable to properties in terms of comtributions to GDP, not mentioning some sectors like e-car are purely sustained by govt subsidies. the largest wave of emigration since reform era is happening, because people, especially with resources, have no trust and faith on XI' govt.
…..Almost 50% of Chinese independent tourist agencies & tourism-related businesses have folded. Tourism from Western countries (US, EU, AUS &JAP) has dropped almost 90% from pre-pandemic numbers….These numbers hold across all tiers….Other than from, perhaps, HK….Where, pray tell, are these “tourists” coming from?
They are all living in a coconut shell where they are masters of the land, conquerer of the oceans, rulers of the masses, lord over the weakest, smartest of the world, this is their self image living in this fast moving, fast pace 21st century.
They congratulate themselves on their sophistication and intelligence. All extracted via the system they so artfully serve. It’s all supported via the taxes of those lesser beings they disdain.
China have the best meritocratic and experienced leaders and government for the past 5 decades. China a massive country and have tens of key pillars in their economies. There will surely be revolving ups and downs in different sectors of the economy. China main growths is in their growth in foreign trades, infrastructure projects and it’s growing trades with 170+ countries now. For the past two decades China middle income population were growing fast and adding on the China’s GDP expansions. Every countries have wealthy peoples investing some of their money overseas is normal and that will not seriously affect China government finances. Lee Kuan Yew was always paranoid about the conditions how he governed Singapore even after he successfully took Singapore to became the world most successful and wealthy nation in the world. Deng Xiaopeng and all his following leader China Central Committee were paranoid too and worried that nothing were perfect and constantly changing of their policies without the worry and needs with winning votes in the next election but through a team of meritocratic and experienced central government committees to implement changes from time to time. President Xi Jinping can be eliminated from his position by the few hundred Central Committee if he doesn’t perform well for their peoples and their country.
China's recent 3rd quarter GDP is 5.2%. Keep talking all the gloom and doom makes very little sense. If China economy is getting bad, the rest of the wor,d including the USA will for sure getting much much worse
I think not.. there is nothing China produces that the West absolutely needs. The CCP's new policy of promoting EV cars and solar batteries we don't want while forgetting toys, plastic components, etc, which we do - is going to doom what is left of the Chinese economy.
Seems to me you westerners should be more involved in western countries and not in the affairs of asian countries!! Let Asians run and admin this asian society!
You fail to understand that the fate of the Chinese economy has significant implications for western economies. We have a duty and a right to take an interest in it.
@@budawang77 I think you should solve your problem first China has four thousands of continuous history It is the oldest continuous civilization Does it tell you something
look at your stock market! 3000 points? 😂 India’s market went to 1200% in the past ten years and China is still 3000 points like in 2000? 😂 the GDP 4.9% is a make-believe figure that only idiot will believe. again? look at your real estate market and your stock market.
We need a successful business person doing business in China to be part of this conversation to have a better understanding of what’s going on with its economy
@@AKumar-co7oeThat’s so true. Nobody is willing to speak the truth to the public with the political-correct environment in the west. Everything is China bad.
@@AKumar-co7oe those who did become Jack Ma #2 > Those who were smart enough don't do public talking as much... some just use it the situation as an opportunity to shift their factory-resource to southern Asia as a counter to the tariff - while it also serve as a good way to secure their asset. e.g if Beijing for any reason decides to seal off mainland (e.g lost in a war and/or needs to push for political security with another cultural revolution) Then those businessman will probably be able to secure their asset oversea. Some does it when sending their kids to study oversea (e.g buying the real estate for their children while they stay there for education-etc ~ it is (or was) one of the only few available ways to move wealth out that can't get individuals into trouble)
Wow, your logic almost sounds legit! Open your freaking eyes. There are many ways, channels to be an expert on a subject. Language is not even an obstacle, not in the past, not today. On the flip side, even you know the language, have lived in China, you still may not be an expert.
From @bklm1234 to @bumbengtey8464...... Wow, your logic almost sounds legit! Open your freaking eyes. There are many ways, channels to be an expert on a subject. Language is not even an obstacle, not in the past, not today. On the flip side, even you know the language, have lived in China, you still may not be an expert.
Too many commentators are not reading the headline or the presentation properly. No one in their right mind thinks China is “finished”. It is not. What is “finished” is the veery high compound growth rates. The days of double digit growth are over. China will gradually revert to the mean of about 3% growth for recently modern countries. Whether they can manage that respectable level of growth is another matter. But in no event is China going to disappear or become irrelevant.
Different from you guys, China intelligent experts still predict China has potential to grow 5-8 percent per year until 2035 such as Lin yifu, who was the leading economist of world bank.
The problem is Xi . You guys are assuming he will do rational intelligent actions based on real data. That’s not the case. He’s fallen into the dictator information black hole. Nobody tells him anything bad. China was having rolling blackouts not that long ago for months. When Xi had a face to face with Biden, he asked Xi how things were going with the blackouts. Xi didn’t know about the blackouts. He found out from sleepy Joe. China has built enough vacant housing for the entire population of China.
Nope, Middle income trap here we go... If they are lucky. Enron style economic policies reconning hasn't even started yet. We know how this ends... Always the same... We just like to think this time it will be different... Ask Soviets or Venezuela - one time the very rich and powerful. Or Zimbabwe. Or Argentina... Or just 1945 Mao times. Everyone thinks this time will be different, you can mismanage the economy without the consequences... Nope, the show is only starting
This is not children's math. China needs a certain level of growth to handle it's coming challenges. These are complex issues beyond, "X is higher than Y".
CORRECTION... not noted, over multi-millions of European, African, Middle Easter, American & etc.. are living in China today and are getting rich. One other secret of China, they welcome all commoners since Marco Polo time
@@malachite7287 sounds like the entire world owes USA and everyone should do what USA asks them to do to return the favor then? You can become a US dog at your own will but not me.
Adam posen took it up side-down, based on his limit ability to access to policy and facts in chinese or association with chinese policy makers, by a series of shallow analyses of western views which are inaccurate in Asain , particularly China, context. That is probably the intention as his remarks are salable in the mainstrean medias in the US! Giving millions of deaths in the US, it is non-sense to avoid the facts and human's natural resistance to virus after pandemic, and making assumption of the superiority of mNRNA vax. Finally there is no china economic miracle as the west would like to criticize the chinese as they came from a very low base at the begining, isn't it.
The Chinese Miracle ended much earlier at around 2010. The growth of economy from 2010 2020 was a mirage powered by large debt expansion. What is happening now is because debt levels are so high that it drags the economy down. But let's see what happens in another 10 years.
the miracle is that the Chinese government spends it's money on improving physical infrastructure, education, research & development, medical and social support for it's people that aids in promoting and encouraging global trade... We in the West spend ours on illegal wars, regime change and sanctions that have been a drain on our nations' economic health... We decline while the regions of the East grow.
I have heard this claim for more than 20 years and it is a miracle indeed that these people still can gather the audience. Ok, time for me to leave now.
I don't agree with this diagnostics presented on this lecture, I refute it based on the following. 99.99 of Chinese are proud of what China 🇨🇳 have achieved in generations. No dissidence every year 120 million Chinese tourists go outside and 120 millilion go back, in contrast to what used to be in Soviet Union. They have a million students in all world universities around the world financed by families of the students. Normally with growth come some problems, all these problems are dealt with specially that they have huge treasure reserves. No very huge debts like USA. Their influence and investment are increasing world. Concerning the theory of mass production and competitive average cost of production no other nation can match them. They are 1st in investment in D&R. All sanctions applied on them have backfired. I believe the lecturer here is motivated by invy and wishful predictions.
Funny how the host mentioned that she had to call her friend in McD Shanghai to check how many outlets are open during CoV? 😅 Also she trying to tell everyone that she comes from a family of doctors and very conversant on the medical updates. The session is without subjects heading where she & her guest is taking everyone around all subjects from the economy, finance, competitions, politics, manufacturing, government behaviour but ultimately dislike how Chinese government runs their country and ultimately instigating people to take out Xi Jing Ping. If USA can compete with China, then leave people alone. I wonder if these host and guest will have a session on USA and how they would like to take out their own President? Typical Americans, can’t look after their own back yard.
I don't remember hearing Stars and Stripes or Old Glory and seeing eagles blazing machineguns over the screen, so maybe I missed when they claimed US GREATEST NUMBER ONE A-OK! can you point out where they claimed we have the best government and strongest economy, please?
China has become the largest car exporter in the world this year ahead of Japan. Secondly, China publishes the most Tier One Peer-Review Scientific Reaearch Papers in the world today. Do the two scenarios above reflect a relative declining nation or in transformation. If you are referring the "decline" to be the cheap copycats or declining from being sweatshop industries than I surely agreed. Some even suggested 2014 was the year China had growth out of the cacoon to become an innovative and high tech leader. This followed by the trade war in 2019 till now or else why have the rivalry if China is actually nobody Unfortunately, there are many China Expects out there ever since the year 2000, predicting the collapse of China as China Experts.😂 Wonder if US or any other major economy in the world today, is performing much better in term scale and growth rate than China. Dun forget in GDP per capita term there are still plenty of rooms for improvement.
So Japan has lost 30 years with world leading automobile and electronics industry? You are saying China will follow Japans footprint? You don't make much sense.
People or 'experts' who keep harping on how 'low' / 'slow' is the economic growth of China in recent years are either dumb or deliberately lying (or both). The reason is simple - the absolute SIZE of the Chinese economy today is multiple TIMES than it was 10 or 20 years ago. Hence, even an 'average' of 5% economic growth today would roughly be the same increase (in dollars amount) of a '10%' in the past. Just simple arithmetic. In 1984, China grew by 15.2%, and averaged over +10% annually through 2005, so 2023 growth dropping to a mere 5% is a big drop. Thing is, when China grew +15.2% in 1984, their economy was only $260 Billion USD (nominal), so they grew by +$40 Billion. In 2023, China's economy is $18 Trillion USD (nominal), so +5% growth adds +$900 Billion, 22.5 times greater than their 1984 growth and roughly 3.5 times the ENTIRE 1984 Chinese economy. In contrast, the USA will be lucky to add +$20 Billion to their economy, and it'll mostly be FIRE (Finance, Insurance & Real Estate) growth, rather than "real" industrial production and trade in goods. The UK is going into recession, Germany is in "technical" recession, and Japan has been ZERO growth for decades. Meanwhile, sanctioned Russia is expected to grow by +3%, faster than the USA.When people like Adrian Zeihan and Gordon Chang keeps being the nvited to talk and explain why the PRC is "collapsing", we, the informed people, can only wet our pants of laughing.
Brilliantly explained. Having spent my working life outside USA, I have studied lots of similar societies and nations. Incidentally, I was an economist and portfolio manager, and subscribe wholeheartedly to what is being propounded here.
Why you are not telling the audience about biological laboratory the United States have all over the world I think you’re over 400 some and they have 800 m bases all around the world to. I don’t see any of you speak publicly.
People or 'experts' who keep harping on how 'low' / 'slow' is the economic growth of China in recent years are either dumb or deliberately lying (or both). The reason is simple - the absolute SIZE of the Chinese economy today is multiple TIMES than it was 10 or 20 years ago. Hence, even an 'average' of 5% economic growth today would roughly be the same increase (in dollars amount) of a '10%' in the past. Just simple arithmetic. In 1984, China grew by 15.2%, and averaged over +10% annually through 2005, so 2023 growth dropping to a mere 5% is a big drop. Thing is, when China grew +15.2% in 1984, their economy was only $260 Billion USD (nominal), so they grew by +$40 Billion. In 2023, China's economy is $18 Trillion USD (nominal), so +5% growth adds +$900 Billion, 22.5 times greater than their 1984 growth and roughly 3.5 times the ENTIRE 1984 Chinese economy. In contrast, the USA will be lucky to add +$20 Billion to their economy, and it'll mostly be FIRE (Finance, Insurance & Real Estate) growth, rather than "real" industrial production and trade in goods. The UK is going into recession, Germany is in "technical" recession, and Japan has been ZERO growth for decades. Meanwhile, sanctioned Russia is expected to grow by +3%, faster than the USA.When people like Adrian Zeihan and Gordon Chang keeps being the nvited to talk and explain why the PRC is "collapsing", we, the informed people, can only wet our pants of laughing.
Well, China will do better than the most countries in the world regardless. Chinese work ethics, productivity, capital, technology inventory and countless engineers &scientists warrant my statements.
Neither US and China would stop growing. The entire world would suffer if any one of them declines. 2%GPD growth in United States is equivalent to the GPD of one country whose GPD ranks 20th in the world e.g.Switzerland.
I also question the 5% like you do. China is facing a hard time. US government stopped their importers importing goods from China. This affect the small and medium size manufacturers most. They are moving their production facilities from China to other Asian countries and Mexico. We all understand that and that's why we are working hard to survive.@@redbeansg
But not discussion on the economic war the US has waged on China since the pivot to Asia? It's as Cuba's economy didn't suffer under US economic sanctions and Venezvuela's didn't suffer and Iran's economy didn't suffer. Starting since the pivot to Asia US economic warfare against China started slowly and has ramped up tremendously. Isn't that the main reason why China's growth has slowed? But an indicator of future growth is progress in science and technology. In jan 2023 the Australian think tank (ASPI?) published a report on 44 key science and technology areas critical for the 21st century. And China led in 37 of them. In spite of the sanction efforts of the US, that has reached extreme levels in some areas China is now over taken both Germany and Japan becomming the biggest producer and exporter of electric vehicles. China has now produced 7nm chips. It's dominance solar and wind power and high speed rail continues. The US auto industry like the global auto industry is moving rapidly to EVs and they all buy chinese batteries.
Very superficial. Anecdotes masquerading as analysis. The previous mode of capital accumulation have reached a limit. Gross fixed capital formation cannot be 50 percent for ever. Will the social, economic and political crisis in the China erupt over before the same does United States. We should ask: Labor productivity in China is still only about one-quarter of the world’s best. What fundamentally will stop it just reaching 50 percent?
China's 40 year turnaround story is being discussed by the West as a miracle. Would China flounder because of a property problem which in many ways is intentional to keep property prices down? China has seen the flaws of high property prices in Hong Kong and Singapore and would not let this to happen in China, leading to fake economic growth but real hardship to the average citizens. Economic growth led by inflating property prices and stock prices is an economy on steroid. Not real growth. America's 1% economic growth was hailed as rock solid by western analysts. And this is coupled with a 5% inflation which would make the American economy super rock solid. How about calling this an American miracle? And the same group of analysts dismissed China's 5% growth as a collapsing economy, even when inflation is nearly zero in China. What would the same analysts describe India's 6% growth? Collapsing faster than China or super solid like America's 1% growth?
Your alternative is a heavy handed government? Serves you right that China is a draconian and unjust society, with an economy that is hampered in all sorts of way. If you still can't see market economy together with democracy being the most efficient system, you failed to learn anything from history.
When a prostitute sees a deal fall though she does not believe that the man can be wholly uninterested in her but rather believe that the price was the issue. This is what is wrong with the US.
The idea that a country with an average weighted tariff of 2.5% is deliberately deglobalizing just bcuz trade as a share of GDP didn’t go up, seems like a really lazy & unprofessional take. American tariff rates are lower than almost anywhere else, & we absorb historically gigantic trade deficits with a contented a-plum that I think would be difficult to find any corresponding examples of. As for the economics matters not stopping China…..Adam supposes that our trade relationship with China is to our benefit. It is not. Every state in the American union would be better off if the bulk of our international supply chains were with countries we can actually sell to in return, that don’t get free access to our R&D w/o any investment contribution themselves.
I’ve often wondered if a basic lack of social skills & a particularly arrogant disposition is a prerequisite for being a Leftist economist? ….After being invited to, presumably, discuss his area of expertise as it pertains to China, I was hardly expecting the “finger-wagging” tirade we were instead treated to (against supposed “thick”-headed security experts that he disagrees with -complete with mocking imitations )…. ….I will admit to finding this to be one of the most annoying Asia Society vids I have yet seen. I found Mr. P to be insufferable-and the “host” to be only slightly less so…..
Does this show The End of China’s Economic compare to USA GDP 2.1% with a $33 Trillions US Dollar Debt & Worldwide? Mainland Chinese 1st half of 2023 tourist outside destine (in million): Thailand 7m plus, Japan 4.5m plus, island of Taiwan 1.8m plus, Myanmar 1.4m plus, Malaysia 3.6m plus, So Korea 3.2m plus and just a few destination. Reuters report 2023 China: China's Q3 GDP grows 4.9% y/y, vs Q2's 6.3%, Q/Q GDP growth quickens to 1.3% in Q3 from Q2's 0.5% Sept industrial output, retail sales beat forecasts. On a quarter-by-quarter basis, GDP grew 1.3% in the third quarter, accelerating from a revised 0.5% in the second quarter and above the forecast for growth of 1.0%. Not bad for 2023.
The End of China's Economic Miracle Key Points: 1. China's economic growth rate has been slowing down since 2015 and is expected to slow down further in a sustained way. This marks the end of the high growth "economic miracle" China has experienced since the economic reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping in 1978. 2. Several factors point to this slowdown and the end of the miracle growth: declining household confidence and spending as people save more to self-insure against risks, slowing productivity growth as China reaches the technological frontier, high levels of debt, an aging population, the arbitrary and damaging zero-COVID policies, a lack of innovation and viable homegrown vaccines, a shrinking private sector share of output and credit, misallocated capital to unproductive state-owned enterprises, and talent and capital flight. 3. The current Chinese leadership under Xi Jinping is reinforcing these negative trends through an aggressive push towards state control and centralization of power, a turn away from market reforms towards state-led industrial policies, arbitrary pandemic lockdowns and restrictions that disrupt production and household income, aggressive rhetoric and policies that undermine confidence in private property rights and the security of wealth. 4. There are historical examples of how the threat of capital flight and "exit" from authoritarian regimes reinforces a vicious cycle where the regime puts up more barriers, reducing freedoms further and incentivizing more exit and erosion of trust in the regime and economy. Many features of Xi's policies and rhetoric echo worrying aspects of the disastrous Cultural Revolution period under Mao. 5. Chinese economic data and official pronouncements cannot be fully trusted. However, a range of evidence from production cuts, empty ports, lockdowns, developer bankruptcies, youth unemployment, capital outflows, and anecdotal migrant worker surveys indicate significant economic weakness. 6. Attempts by the regime to stimulate the economy through state-directed credit expansion are unlikely to succeed due to lack of underlying consumer demand and distrust in future policy. There is also the opportunity cost of wasted resources continuing to be directed to unproductive state-owned enterprises. 7. US policy towards China has been unduly confrontational, relying excessively on punitive tariffs and economic sanctions compared to dealing directly with national security threats. These policies undermine relations but are also unlikely to compel changes in China's behavior. 8. Cold War-style technology containment policies, espionage rhetoric and immigration restrictions undermine US strengths and play into the regime's narrative of foreign threats. Continued scientific and cultural exchange is mutually beneficial. Ethnic Chinese students and scientists have contributed enormously to US technological leadership. Most economic espionage occurs through electronic hacking rather than student spies. Conclusions: 1. China's economic miracle of consistently high growth rates is coming to an end due to both natural slowing as the country reaches the global technology frontier as well as policy choices under Xi Jinping that exacerbate structural weaknesses. 2. Extreme state control and direction of resources to wasteful and unproductive state-owned enterprises, repression of intellectual debate and flexibility, arbitrary wielding of power, and talent flight undermine efficient economic management and technological progress. 3. Attempts to stimulate short-term growth through state-directed credit and infrastructure spending are unlikely to succeed due to lack of consumer demand and Trust. State control favors Friends over competence. 4. Aggressive US rhetoric and economic sanctions undermine relations but cannot compel changes nor effectively counter technology and military threats. Immigration and Technology exchange with China including top students and scientists benefits the US economy and technological leadership. 5. China retains strengths including scale, infrastructure, industrial capacity and state direction of resources. Weaknesses include distrust in property rights, lack of innovation, wasted resources and loss of talent. The regime remains paranoid about economic, food and energy dependency. Intensified ideological propaganda increases social pressures. 6. In the long run, continued erosion of freedoms, arbitrary wielding of power and loss of Trust and talent makes it increasingly difficult to return to pragmatism and sustained economic progress. But history teaches humility about predicting Chinese economic stagnation or regime collapse.
He had been wrong since 2015. And now still babbling about the collapse of China's economy. Maybe if he keeps saying the same thing for decades, he could be right once?
You are Amerjcan intellectuals who speculate about China based on wrong parameters Your wishes get confused with your reasoning. You both live in a parallel world.
What about the US? We're living on debt too. And the fact that other countries, like China, are worse than us, which draws in foreign capital. But how long is what we do sustainable?
One idea for China to get out of their “Evergrand builder” situation, in my opinion, is to do fire sales to the common people but not institutional investors. In order for the people to invest in their living with credit/ maybe some subsidized loans to general public.
True but when something like 47% of chinas GDP growth was investment driven growth, at some point you need consumers to spend more and create consumer driven growth - as you run out of things to invest in- and you need that consumer spending to fuel continued growth in China’s GDP…
@@jonlbdg This things balance out. It is not one or the other but sure in time of doubt people will reduce spending. It is not a bad thing and don't require government action that will only make thing worst and create a crisis.
Restricting China from getting technology that enables from building the most advanced weapons is doable and being done. This is being done in collaboration with many like minded countries. The US is building and nurturing relationships~ with Vietnam, Philippines, Mexico and dozens of others. The problems are China, Russia maybe Iran and certainly North Korea. Most of the world’s population is Asian. That would still be at least close to half without including China. I agree that even the headline MAGA is cringy but that is not the message from the current administration.
3:29 and that started me thinking 📱Ringing XD .... ... shooting people with Phone 🤣🤣🤣 T____T Then ambulance ring at 2 minutes later. Better Call James, the Who.
China definitely needs some adjustment, after that the economy will grow at high speed again given the excellent infrastructure built in the last decade. what's good is China will be less reliant on the USA.
I suggest this gentleman go read the Brundtland Commission report Our Common Future as a backgrounder for understanding the paradigm shift in the way China design it's development model.
What would you call the Americans seizing the billions of nation states' funds in America and Europe? Billions owned by Russia, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq etc etc, arbitrarily? What about imposing sanctions on Cuba and North Korea for more than 70 years? Not arbitrarily taking away the rights of their people to live decently?
If we're talking only in the context of an industry that needs a lot of cheap labor, then it's true. But if the talk is focused on the technological aspect, then the Chinese economic miracle is only at the beginning stage.
Must be CCP here...
@@couttsw Not really, in fact my country was one of the biggest victims of communism propaganda in the past. thousands of my countrymen were killed by the communists aided by weapons from the USSR and CCP.
But, as a rationalist and as a person who has had the opportunity to travel around China for months, I agree that currently Chinese industry is moving from cheap labor-intensive industry to technology-intensive.
We know now that Huawei has started to make their own OS and high-end chips that have been recognized worldwide and even surprised America.
We also know that their dominance in 5G shows how Chinese technology has grown and dominated in recent years, so America must use its influence to stop China from dominating 5G technology.
In crypto technology, we also know that Bitmain, Iceriver, etc. were all created in China from the start. And there are many other examples that show that China is pioneering its dominance in high technology-based industries. including in the electric car industry.
@@demit007 your username screams CCP, or a BOT, try something identifiable or stay in hiding.
@@couttsw Hardly. They've still got TONS of technologies to steal from the rest of the world.
agree😂
Yes, China had already collapsed decades ago. No need to worry.
😂
So now is China New business opportunities for doing more business in New areas of business ?? And for sure will kill usa industries all????
Lol another China "expert". Asia Society's content is really going downhill ever since Kevin Ruud left.
come back when you hcinks start eating each other.
It's the easy way to be relevant, tell people what they want to hear
Actually Kevin Ruud is also rubbish.
People or 'experts' who keep harping on how 'low' / 'slow' is the economic growth of China in recent years are either dumb or deliberately lying (or both).
The reason is simple - the absolute SIZE of the Chinese economy today is multiple TIMES than it was 10 or 20 years ago.
Hence, even an 'average' of 5% economic growth today would roughly be the same increase (in dollars amount) of a '10%' in the past.
Just simple arithmetic.
In 1984, China grew by 15.2%, and averaged over +10% annually through 2005, so 2023 growth dropping to a mere 5% is a big drop. Thing is, when China grew +15.2% in 1984, their economy was only $260 Billion USD (nominal), so they grew by +$40 Billion. In 2023, China's economy is $18 Trillion USD (nominal), so +5% growth adds +$900 Billion, 22.5 times greater than their 1984 growth and roughly 3.5 times the ENTIRE 1984 Chinese economy.
In contrast, the USA will be lucky to add +$20 Billion to their economy, and it'll mostly be FIRE (Finance, Insurance & Real Estate) growth, rather than "real" industrial production and trade in goods. The UK is going into recession, Germany is in "technical" recession, and Japan has been ZERO growth for decades. Meanwhile, sanctioned Russia is expected to grow by +3%, faster than the USA.When people like Adrian Zeihan and Gordon Chang keeps being the nvited to talk and explain why the PRC is "collapsing", we, the informed people, can only wet our pants of laughing.
kevin rudd is an arrogant china hater.
Hahaha. There you go again? China has been collapsing for 3 decades.
Here we go again. We have been hearing this for decades and these jokers are proven wrong again and again.
I have never seen the Asia Society invited anyone from China to talk about China, and that reduces its credibility
Because its goal is to diminish China. And the anti-China Chinese normally have no logic when speaking, it's too easy to lose the audience.
The Chinese people don’t event trust their own “experts” , most of whom are just propaganda vehicles of the Communist party. Why should Asian Society give them a platform for their narratives? if anyone want to hear those brainwashing bullshit they can just go to see CGTV, the network owned by China.
Asia society is create to be anti china????
Very few of the guests ever been to Asia.
This is a fine example of stealing the Asia name to silence the Real Asian voices.
@@misterhill5598 you don’t need to be in north korea to know there are people starving.
That's very strange because what the speaker said is contradictory to what we see on the ground.
Tier 3 and 4 cities had more tourist than they can handle.
Slowing real estate sector is counted-balanced by the booming of automobiles, semiconductor, new energy, fashion and movie scene.
FDI from western world is quickly replaced by West Asia sovereign fund.
Record number of scholars is returning from United states.
The speaker painted picture of china that doesn't reflect reality.
These are the stooges doing the dirty work of their sour grape masters to bad-mouth China.
They think if they keep repeating something, it will become true.
They've said it a million times for the last 20 years, that china has grown tremendously but it's now the end. They have the memory capacity of a goldfish. They will never learn and their naivety will eventually lead to their demise
The sectors you mentioned are not comparable to properties in terms of comtributions to GDP, not mentioning some sectors like e-car are purely sustained by govt subsidies. the largest wave of emigration since reform era is happening, because people, especially with resources, have no trust and faith on XI' govt.
…..Almost 50% of Chinese independent tourist agencies & tourism-related businesses have folded. Tourism from Western countries (US, EU, AUS &JAP) has dropped almost 90% from pre-pandemic numbers….These numbers hold across all tiers….Other than from, perhaps, HK….Where, pray tell, are these “tourists” coming from?
They are all living in a coconut shell where they are masters of the land, conquerer of the oceans, rulers of the masses, lord over the weakest, smartest of the world, this is their self image living in this fast moving, fast pace 21st century.
This guy gets off the same train station as Gordon Chan.
He sounded like a hillbilly.
And don't forget Peter zeihan
Another Chinese expert! Speechless!
You should be. Because China is crap.
I am a chinese and food is important in our culture@@michaelmarchal4004
The US government is funding billions of dollars to blame China. Most of the youtube channels are funded by the US government
Another internet troll 👿
I see, thank you for telling me that it’s the end of the US economic miracle.
Not yet, for US still have $100 Billions $$$ to give away...
I wonder how these people feel on the last days of their live, knowing they have lied half their life about a country?..
U can’t wake someone who is pretending sleeping. So they will never come to realize he was wrong!
They congratulate themselves on their sophistication and intelligence. All extracted via the system they so artfully serve. It’s all supported via the taxes of those lesser beings they disdain.
A 12 years old boy trying his best to analyze his grandfather. He even wrote several books about him. He is truly a good boy. Jiayou!
Here is a China Communist Party’s barking Dog! who is your grand father? Stalin? 😂
😂😂👏🏻👏🏻
The US government is funding billions of dollars to blame China. Most of the youtube channels are funded by the US government
China have the best meritocratic and experienced leaders and government for the past 5 decades. China a massive country and have tens of key pillars in their economies. There will surely be revolving ups and downs in different sectors of the economy. China main growths is in their growth in foreign trades, infrastructure projects and it’s growing trades with 170+ countries now. For the past two decades China middle income population were growing fast and adding on the China’s GDP expansions.
Every countries have wealthy peoples investing some of their money overseas is normal and that will not seriously affect China government finances.
Lee Kuan Yew was always paranoid about the conditions how he governed Singapore even after he successfully took Singapore to became the world most successful and wealthy nation in the world.
Deng Xiaopeng and all his following leader China Central Committee were paranoid too and worried that nothing were perfect and constantly changing of their policies without the worry and needs with winning votes in the next election but through a team of meritocratic and experienced central government committees to implement changes from time to time. President Xi Jinping can be eliminated from his position by the few hundred Central Committee if he doesn’t perform well for their peoples and their country.
you must be Singaporean as you obviously know the reality in Asia much to the ground.
China's recent 3rd quarter GDP is 5.2%. Keep talking all the gloom and doom makes very little sense. If China economy is getting bad, the rest of the wor,d including the USA will for sure getting much much worse
I think not.. there is nothing China produces that the West absolutely needs. The CCP's new policy of promoting EV cars and solar batteries we don't want while forgetting toys, plastic components, etc, which we do - is going to doom what is left of the Chinese economy.
Seems to me you westerners should be more involved in western countries and not in the affairs of asian countries!! Let Asians run and admin this asian society!
You fail to understand that the fate of the Chinese economy has significant implications for western economies. We have a duty and a right to take an interest in it.
@@budawang77 I think you should solve your problem first
China has four thousands of continuous history
It is the oldest continuous civilization
Does it tell you something
China is growing 4.9% in the third quarter and this guy said the coming collapse, I wonder where he is getting his degree
His degree is from Harvest university
@@tangkwoksang2343 no it is from Heilvadt Universitaet😂
look at your stock market! 3000 points? 😂 India’s market went to 1200% in the past ten years and China is still 3000 points like in 2000? 😂 the GDP 4.9% is a make-believe figure that only idiot will believe. again? look at your real estate market and your stock market.
and in the meantime, USA growth is just 1.2% at the same period.
@@tangkwoksang2343 not surprising...
We need a successful business person doing business in China to be part of this conversation to have a better understanding of what’s going on with its economy
most such people will not speak freely to avoid backlash
@@AKumar-co7oeThat’s so true. Nobody is willing to speak the truth to the public with the political-correct environment in the west. Everything is China bad.
@@AKumar-co7oe those who did become Jack Ma #2
> Those who were smart enough don't do public talking as much... some just use it the situation as an opportunity to shift their factory-resource to southern Asia as a counter to the tariff - while it also serve as a good way to secure their asset. e.g if Beijing for any reason decides to seal off mainland (e.g lost in a war and/or needs to push for political security with another cultural revolution) Then those businessman will probably be able to secure their asset oversea.
Some does it when sending their kids to study oversea (e.g buying the real estate for their children while they stay there for education-etc ~ it is (or was) one of the only few available ways to move wealth out that can't get individuals into trouble)
@@andrewli9793 he's turning it into a war economy to prepare for invasion before 2030
Those who moved to Vienam are moving back now@@michaelwang6125
An incompetent speaker on a topic he does not fully able to apprehend …
How does one become a China expert without being able to read Chinese/ Mandarin?
It's better not to read Chinese/Mandarin because most of what is written in that language is distorted by brainwashing and information censorship.
Wow, your logic almost sounds legit! Open your freaking eyes. There are many ways, channels to be an expert on a subject. Language is not even an obstacle, not in the past, not today. On the flip side, even you know the language, have lived in China, you still may not be an expert.
From @bklm1234 to
@bumbengtey8464...... Wow, your logic almost sounds legit! Open your freaking eyes. There are many ways, channels to be an expert on a subject. Language is not even an obstacle, not in the past, not today. On the flip side, even you know the language, have lived in China, you still may not be an expert.
He is an economist, not a linguist, stupid.
By trusting second hand accounts … 😂
Too many commentators are not reading the headline or the presentation properly. No one in their right mind thinks China is “finished”. It is not. What is “finished” is the veery high compound growth rates. The days of double digit growth are over. China will gradually revert to the mean of about 3% growth for recently modern countries. Whether they can manage that respectable level of growth is another matter. But in no event is China going to disappear or become irrelevant.
Different from you guys,
China intelligent experts still predict China has potential to grow 5-8 percent per year until 2035
such as Lin yifu, who was the leading economist of world bank.
The problem is Xi . You guys are assuming he will do rational intelligent actions based on real data. That’s not the case. He’s fallen into the dictator information black hole. Nobody tells him anything bad. China was having rolling blackouts not that long ago for months. When Xi had a face to face with Biden, he asked Xi how things were going with the blackouts. Xi didn’t know about the blackouts. He found out from sleepy Joe. China has built enough vacant housing for the entire population of China.
Nope, Middle income trap here we go... If they are lucky. Enron style economic policies reconning hasn't even started yet. We know how this ends... Always the same... We just like to think this time it will be different... Ask Soviets or Venezuela - one time the very rich and powerful. Or Zimbabwe. Or Argentina... Or just 1945 Mao times. Everyone thinks this time will be different, you can mismanage the economy without the consequences... Nope, the show is only starting
Silly uninformed person. China is already finished.
@mkmcat 😂 When you wish upon a star
Make no difference who you are
Anything your heart desires
Will come to you
The end of the miracle?
As i understand it, china is expected to grow by 5% this year ??. While uk is 0•1 % at best .
This is not children's math. China needs a certain level of growth to handle it's coming challenges. These are complex issues beyond, "X is higher than Y".
@@DenOndeMistercare to elaborate more?
U obviously haven’t understood the lecture especially the part about growth
There is no END of China's Economic Miracle ! Since China-economic growth does not happen because of MIRACLE but HARD-WORK of all China citizens.
CORRECTION... not noted, over multi-millions of European, African, Middle Easter, American & etc.. are living in China today and are getting rich. One other secret of China, they welcome all commoners since Marco Polo time
Damn... It's a waste of time watching this.... Asia Society please find a better speaker...
No miracle. Just hard work.
There would be no modern China without access to US markets
@@malachite7287 sounds like the entire world owes USA and everyone should do what USA asks them to do to return the favor then? You can become a US dog at your own will but not me.
Adam posen took it up side-down, based on his limit ability to access to policy and facts in chinese or association with chinese policy makers, by a series of shallow analyses of western views which are inaccurate in Asain , particularly China, context. That is probably the intention as his remarks are salable in the mainstrean medias in the US!
Giving millions of deaths in the US, it is non-sense to avoid the facts and human's natural resistance to virus after pandemic, and making assumption of the superiority of mNRNA vax. Finally there is no china economic miracle as the west would like to criticize the chinese as they came from a very low base at the begining, isn't it.
Only Time will tell.
Thank you both.
The Chinese Miracle ended much earlier at around 2010.
The growth of economy from 2010 2020 was a mirage powered by large debt expansion.
What is happening now is because debt levels are so high that it drags the economy down.
But let's see what happens in another 10 years.
Your wish, you can join GORDON CHAN dreams. He has been predicting for 20 years. The country falling apart is United States.
China is about to overtake America exporting all of their tech at lower prices that undercuts America😢 America will be in crisis by summer 2024
the miracle is that the Chinese government spends it's money on improving physical infrastructure, education, research & development, medical and social support for it's people that aids in promoting and encouraging global trade... We in the West spend ours on illegal wars, regime change and sanctions that have been a drain on our nations' economic health... We decline while the regions of the East grow.
I have heard this claim for more than 20 years and it is a miracle indeed that these people still can gather the audience. Ok, time for me to leave now.
402 viewer is not an audience, but just paster by like me... not coming back.
I don't agree with this diagnostics presented on this lecture, I refute it based on the following. 99.99 of Chinese are proud of what China 🇨🇳 have achieved in generations. No dissidence every year 120 million Chinese tourists go outside and 120 millilion go back, in contrast to what used to be in Soviet Union. They have a million students in all world universities around the world financed by families of the students. Normally with growth come some problems, all these problems are dealt with specially that they have huge treasure reserves. No very huge debts like USA. Their influence and investment are increasing world. Concerning the theory of mass production and competitive average cost of production no other nation can match them. They are 1st in investment in D&R. All sanctions applied on them have backfired. I believe the lecturer here is motivated by invy and wishful predictions.
, Thank you for eyes openning
The female host sounds so eager to show off but really shallow
Name dropping and bragging of who she know to keeping up with her phony guest speaker spreading fake acquisitions of CCP China 💩💩💩
Funny how the host mentioned that she had to call her friend in McD Shanghai to check how many outlets are open during CoV? 😅 Also she trying to tell everyone that she comes from a family of doctors and very conversant on the medical updates. The session is without subjects heading where she & her guest is taking everyone around all subjects from the economy, finance, competitions, politics, manufacturing, government behaviour but ultimately dislike how Chinese government runs their country and ultimately instigating people to take out Xi Jing Ping. If USA can compete with China, then leave people alone. I wonder if these host and guest will have a session on USA and how they would like to take out their own President? Typical Americans, can’t look after their own back yard.
@@Rob-iz6nm - worst still, she is in such pretence of being so Americanised.
@@Rob-iz6nm her race has no bearing but what she try to portray to be will be her issue.
Yeah, sounds familiar, heard that before? In the 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020 2023 and everyday. Guess what? Chinese EV cars are all over the world.
It needs such experts to keep telling Americans they still have the best government and the strongest economy.
😂
Sorry , truth hurts
I don't remember hearing Stars and Stripes or Old Glory and seeing eagles blazing machineguns over the screen, so maybe I missed when they claimed US GREATEST NUMBER ONE A-OK! can you point out where they claimed we have the best government and strongest economy, please?
Great video
China has become the largest car exporter in the world this year ahead of Japan.
Secondly, China publishes the most Tier One Peer-Review Scientific Reaearch Papers in the world today.
Do the two scenarios above reflect a relative declining nation or in transformation. If you are referring the "decline" to be the cheap copycats or declining from being sweatshop industries than I surely agreed. Some even suggested 2014 was the year China had growth out of the cacoon to become an innovative and high tech leader. This followed by the trade war in 2019 till now or else why have the rivalry if China is actually nobody
Unfortunately, there are many China Expects out there ever since the year 2000, predicting the collapse of China as China Experts.😂
Wonder if US or any other major economy in the world today, is performing much better in term scale and growth rate than China. Dun forget in GDP per capita term there are still plenty of rooms for improvement.
So Japan has lost 30 years with world leading automobile and electronics industry? You are saying China will follow Japans footprint? You don't make much sense.
I would see no country could hold their economy growth rate at high level, 5%GDP growth at this time, that will still shock many countries.
Well, Moldy India has a higher growth. The country is a shit hole still. They the billionaires slum lord😅
This is October of 2023. What would you say now ? China economy is going to end when.
People or 'experts' who keep harping on how 'low' / 'slow' is the economic growth of China in recent years are either dumb or deliberately lying (or both).
The reason is simple - the absolute SIZE of the Chinese economy today is multiple TIMES than it was 10 or 20 years ago.
Hence, even an 'average' of 5% economic growth today would roughly be the same increase (in dollars amount) of a '10%' in the past.
Just simple arithmetic.
In 1984, China grew by 15.2%, and averaged over +10% annually through 2005, so 2023 growth dropping to a mere 5% is a big drop. Thing is, when China grew +15.2% in 1984, their economy was only $260 Billion USD (nominal), so they grew by +$40 Billion. In 2023, China's economy is $18 Trillion USD (nominal), so +5% growth adds +$900 Billion, 22.5 times greater than their 1984 growth and roughly 3.5 times the ENTIRE 1984 Chinese economy.
In contrast, the USA will be lucky to add +$20 Billion to their economy, and it'll mostly be FIRE (Finance, Insurance & Real Estate) growth, rather than "real" industrial production and trade in goods. The UK is going into recession, Germany is in "technical" recession, and Japan has been ZERO growth for decades. Meanwhile, sanctioned Russia is expected to grow by +3%, faster than the USA.When people like Adrian Zeihan and Gordon Chang keeps being the nvited to talk and explain why the PRC is "collapsing", we, the informed people, can only wet our pants of laughing.
Not an academic lecture, rather a political talk with western supremacy mindset. Don't take him seriously.
China does not need anyone outside to worry . 😂
perhaps you should disconnect you vpn and stay inside your digital prison
@@chrystalnetwhy are you "so" sure about usage of vpn?
@@chrystalnetTry to get an education if u can afford it 🤣
there is nothing wrong by using vpn if people from mainland China。
“Asia society” should be renamed “China bashing by white people”.
only time will tell if he’s right
Well by tomorrow there'll already be another "China expert" who will predict China's downfall. They have the memory capacity of a goldfish
He isn’t.
Gordon Chang has been making this prediction on Lou Dobbs' show since 2000.
Brilliantly explained. Having spent my working life outside USA, I have studied lots of similar societies and nations. Incidentally, I was an economist and portfolio manager, and subscribe wholeheartedly to what is being propounded here.
All these hopeful haters wishing fall on China is laughable. Haters will always hate, China will always rise😂
Nowadays layman like me uneducated, also can become an expert because I know how to talk nonsense.
My God..... Democracy... Hk, Xinjiang and more... Sample Population of Xinjiang keeps increasing.... How about your native Indiana people?
Posen is brilliant as usual! ❤🎉😃
Do you want to bet that China is finished? I'd take your money happily.
Why you are not telling the audience about biological laboratory the United States have all over the world I think you’re over 400 some and they have 800 m bases all around the world to. I don’t see any of you speak publicly.
Another CCP
The CCP do that enough for everybody
People or 'experts' who keep harping on how 'low' / 'slow' is the economic growth of China in recent years are either dumb or deliberately lying (or both).
The reason is simple - the absolute SIZE of the Chinese economy today is multiple TIMES than it was 10 or 20 years ago.
Hence, even an 'average' of 5% economic growth today would roughly be the same increase (in dollars amount) of a '10%' in the past.
Just simple arithmetic.
In 1984, China grew by 15.2%, and averaged over +10% annually through 2005, so 2023 growth dropping to a mere 5% is a big drop. Thing is, when China grew +15.2% in 1984, their economy was only $260 Billion USD (nominal), so they grew by +$40 Billion. In 2023, China's economy is $18 Trillion USD (nominal), so +5% growth adds +$900 Billion, 22.5 times greater than their 1984 growth and roughly 3.5 times the ENTIRE 1984 Chinese economy.
In contrast, the USA will be lucky to add +$20 Billion to their economy, and it'll mostly be FIRE (Finance, Insurance & Real Estate) growth, rather than "real" industrial production and trade in goods. The UK is going into recession, Germany is in "technical" recession, and Japan has been ZERO growth for decades. Meanwhile, sanctioned Russia is expected to grow by +3%, faster than the USA.When people like Adrian Zeihan and Gordon Chang keeps being the nvited to talk and explain why the PRC is "collapsing", we, the informed people, can only wet our pants of laughing.
Wonder if he can speak Chinese
Which "Chinese" do you mean? Mandarin, Cantonese, Shanghainese, Hokkien, Hakka, Min, Gan, Xiang?
Clearly didn't watch this as he outright answers that.
Well, China will do better than the most countries in the world regardless. Chinese work ethics, productivity, capital, technology inventory and countless engineers &scientists warrant my statements.
More then that, of the 3,000 plus year history... China must be doing something right...
Congratulations 👌
There might be some truth here but the boy has cried wolf way too many times. This stuff is now a bad joke.
Better to organise a forum : The End of the Economic Miracle in China or the U.S. ?
Neither US and China would stop growing. The entire world would suffer if any one of them declines. 2%GPD growth in United States is equivalent to the GPD of one country whose GPD ranks 20th in the world e.g.Switzerland.
@@kaimingraymondchoi9909 American economy grew at 1%, rock solid. China's economy grew at 5% and is collapsing. Ya?
I also question the 5% like you do. China is facing a hard time. US government stopped their importers importing goods from China. This affect the small and medium size manufacturers most. They are moving their production facilities from China to other Asian countries and Mexico. We all understand that and that's why we are working hard to survive.@@redbeansg
@@robinbreeds9217 you believe Biden n the liars cooking the data for him?
But not discussion on the economic war the US has waged on China since the pivot to Asia? It's as Cuba's economy didn't suffer under US economic sanctions and Venezvuela's didn't suffer and Iran's economy didn't suffer. Starting since the pivot to Asia US economic warfare against China started slowly and has ramped up tremendously. Isn't that the main reason why China's growth has slowed? But an indicator of future growth is progress in science and technology. In jan 2023 the Australian think tank (ASPI?) published a report on 44 key science and technology areas critical for the 21st century. And China led in 37 of them. In spite of the sanction efforts of the US, that has reached extreme levels in some areas China is now over taken both Germany and Japan becomming the biggest producer and exporter of electric vehicles. China has now produced 7nm chips. It's dominance solar and wind power and high speed rail continues. The US auto industry like the global auto industry is moving rapidly to EVs and they all buy chinese batteries.
You need to change your lens. China is booming, and it’s just starting.
Very superficial. Anecdotes masquerading as analysis.
The previous mode of capital accumulation have reached a limit. Gross fixed capital formation cannot be 50 percent for ever.
Will the social, economic and political crisis in the China erupt over before the same does United States.
We should ask: Labor productivity in China is still only about one-quarter of the world’s best. What fundamentally will stop it just reaching 50 percent?
You misread China.
Again! 😅
China's 40 year turnaround story is being discussed by the West as a miracle. Would China flounder because of a property problem which in many ways is intentional to keep property prices down? China has seen the flaws of high property prices in Hong Kong and Singapore and would not let this to happen in China, leading to fake economic growth but real hardship to the average citizens. Economic growth led by inflating property prices and stock prices is an economy on steroid. Not real growth.
America's 1% economic growth was hailed as rock solid by western analysts. And this is coupled with a 5% inflation which would make the American economy super rock solid. How about calling this an American miracle? And the same group of analysts dismissed China's 5% growth as a collapsing economy, even when inflation is nearly zero in China.
What would the same analysts describe India's 6% growth? Collapsing faster than China or super solid like America's 1% growth?
He is so blindsided by ideology that he cannot and will not admit the possibility of an alternative
When one only see the world thru their own minor, one does not see the real world beyond.
Your alternative is a heavy handed government? Serves you right that China is a draconian and unjust society, with an economy that is hampered in all sorts of way. If you still can't see market economy together with democracy being the most efficient system, you failed to learn anything from history.
When a prostitute sees a deal fall though she does not believe that the man can be wholly uninterested in her but rather believe that the price was the issue. This is what is wrong with the US.
The idea that a country with an average weighted tariff of 2.5% is deliberately deglobalizing just bcuz trade as a share of GDP didn’t go up, seems like a really lazy & unprofessional take. American tariff rates are lower than almost anywhere else, & we absorb historically gigantic trade deficits with a contented a-plum that I think would be difficult to find any corresponding examples of.
As for the economics matters not stopping China…..Adam supposes that our trade relationship with China is to our benefit. It is not. Every state in the American union would be better off if the bulk of our international supply chains were with countries we can actually sell to in return, that don’t get free access to our R&D w/o any investment contribution themselves.
Have you guys been smoking lately.
seems you should disconnect you vpn and stay inside your digital prison - don't smoke the wrong stuff in china if you want to avoid death penalty
Until proven guilty
No, they are actually praying if not braying!
Fyi, the locals are happy in China.
Now I understand what "bullshit" really means!
Precisely put James.
I’ve often wondered if a basic lack of social skills & a particularly arrogant disposition is a prerequisite for being a Leftist economist? ….After being invited to, presumably, discuss his area of expertise as it pertains to China, I was hardly expecting the “finger-wagging” tirade we were instead treated to (against supposed “thick”-headed security experts that he disagrees with -complete with mocking imitations )….
….I will admit to finding this to be one of the most annoying Asia Society vids I have yet seen. I found Mr. P to be insufferable-and the “host” to be only slightly less so…..
Wasted 20 minutes of his babbling.....
Does this show The End of China’s Economic compare to USA GDP 2.1% with a $33 Trillions US Dollar Debt & Worldwide?
Mainland Chinese 1st half of 2023 tourist outside destine (in million): Thailand 7m plus, Japan 4.5m plus, island of Taiwan 1.8m plus, Myanmar 1.4m plus, Malaysia 3.6m plus, So Korea 3.2m plus and just a few destination.
Reuters report 2023 China: China's Q3 GDP grows 4.9% y/y, vs Q2's 6.3%, Q/Q GDP growth quickens to 1.3% in Q3 from Q2's 0.5% Sept industrial output, retail sales beat forecasts. On a quarter-by-quarter basis, GDP grew 1.3% in the third quarter, accelerating from a revised 0.5% in the second quarter and above the forecast for growth of 1.0%. Not bad for 2023.
Miracle or not, the world has created an aggressive nation with no gratitude.
😂
Thwsw analyst always wrong about China
The End of China's Economic Miracle
Key Points:
1. China's economic growth rate has been slowing down since 2015 and is expected to slow down further in a sustained way. This marks the end of the high growth "economic miracle" China has experienced since the economic reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping in 1978.
2. Several factors point to this slowdown and the end of the miracle growth: declining household confidence and spending as people save more to self-insure against risks, slowing productivity growth as China reaches the technological frontier, high levels of debt, an aging population, the arbitrary and damaging zero-COVID policies, a lack of innovation and viable homegrown vaccines, a shrinking private sector share of output and credit, misallocated capital to unproductive state-owned enterprises, and talent and capital flight.
3. The current Chinese leadership under Xi Jinping is reinforcing these negative trends through an aggressive push towards state control and centralization of power, a turn away from market reforms towards state-led industrial policies, arbitrary pandemic lockdowns and restrictions that disrupt production and household income, aggressive rhetoric and policies that undermine confidence in private property rights and the security of wealth.
4. There are historical examples of how the threat of capital flight and "exit" from authoritarian regimes reinforces a vicious cycle where the regime puts up more barriers, reducing freedoms further and incentivizing more exit and erosion of trust in the regime and economy. Many features of Xi's policies and rhetoric echo worrying aspects of the disastrous Cultural Revolution period under Mao.
5. Chinese economic data and official pronouncements cannot be fully trusted. However, a range of evidence from production cuts, empty ports, lockdowns, developer bankruptcies, youth unemployment, capital outflows, and anecdotal migrant worker surveys indicate significant economic weakness.
6. Attempts by the regime to stimulate the economy through state-directed credit expansion are unlikely to succeed due to lack of underlying consumer demand and distrust in future policy. There is also the opportunity cost of wasted resources continuing to be directed to unproductive state-owned enterprises.
7. US policy towards China has been unduly confrontational, relying excessively on punitive tariffs and economic sanctions compared to dealing directly with national security threats. These policies undermine relations but are also unlikely to compel changes in China's behavior.
8. Cold War-style technology containment policies, espionage rhetoric and immigration restrictions undermine US strengths and play into the regime's narrative of foreign threats. Continued scientific and cultural exchange is mutually beneficial. Ethnic Chinese students and scientists have contributed enormously to US technological leadership. Most economic espionage occurs through electronic hacking rather than student spies.
Conclusions:
1. China's economic miracle of consistently high growth rates is coming to an end due to both natural slowing as the country reaches the global technology frontier as well as policy choices under Xi Jinping that exacerbate structural weaknesses.
2. Extreme state control and direction of resources to wasteful and unproductive state-owned enterprises, repression of intellectual debate and flexibility, arbitrary wielding of power, and talent flight undermine efficient economic management and technological progress.
3. Attempts to stimulate short-term growth through state-directed credit and infrastructure spending are unlikely to succeed due to lack of consumer demand and Trust. State control favors Friends over competence.
4. Aggressive US rhetoric and economic sanctions undermine relations but cannot compel changes nor effectively counter technology and military threats. Immigration and Technology exchange with China including top students and scientists benefits the US economy and technological leadership.
5. China retains strengths including scale, infrastructure, industrial capacity and state direction of resources. Weaknesses include distrust in property rights, lack of innovation, wasted resources and loss of talent. The regime remains paranoid about economic, food and energy dependency. Intensified ideological propaganda increases social pressures.
6. In the long run, continued erosion of freedoms, arbitrary wielding of power and loss of Trust and talent makes it increasingly difficult to return to pragmatism and sustained economic progress. But history teaches humility about predicting Chinese economic stagnation or regime collapse.
Your wish, you can join GORDON CHAN dreams. He has been predicting for 20 years. The country falling apart is United States.
He had been wrong since 2015. And now still babbling about the collapse of China's economy. Maybe if he keeps saying the same thing for decades, he could be right once?
You are Amerjcan intellectuals who speculate about China based on wrong parameters Your wishes get confused with your reasoning. You both live in a parallel world.
He says everything that all Americans wish to be true about China !!!
Mesmerizing.
What about the US? We're living on debt too. And the fact that other countries, like China, are worse than us, which draws in foreign capital. But how long is what we do sustainable?
One idea for China to get out of their “Evergrand builder” situation, in my opinion, is to do fire sales to the common people but not institutional investors. In order for the people to invest in their living with credit/ maybe some subsidized loans to general public.
can you talk about the topic?
These "experts" get sponsorships, viewerships, benefits for saying the "right" things to the right audiences. 😂
We have heard this for so many years but China is getting stronger and stronger
Another blind man to the obvious facts staring them right in the face!
Swing left bias means “dreams about impossible goals”
anyone buying huawei?? they have 7nm chip technology
In my college days there are students that come on a motorcycle, well dressed
and all the rest. They fail the exams. China reminds of them.
**learned how to use chopsticks, became china expert."
Saving not spending IS A GOOD THING😂😂 it make the economy more resilient
True but when something like 47% of chinas GDP growth was investment driven growth, at some point you need consumers to spend more and create consumer driven growth - as you run out of things to invest in- and you need that consumer spending to fuel continued growth in China’s GDP…
@@jonlbdg This things balance out. It is not one or the other but sure in time of doubt people will reduce spending.
It is not a bad thing and don't require government action that will only make thing worst and create a crisis.
Restricting China from getting technology that enables from building the most advanced weapons is doable and being done. This is being done in collaboration with many like minded countries. The US is building and nurturing relationships~ with Vietnam, Philippines, Mexico and dozens of others. The problems are China, Russia maybe Iran and certainly North Korea. Most of the world’s population is Asian. That would still be at least close to half without including China. I agree that even the headline MAGA is cringy but that is not the message from the current administration.
our relationship with Vietnam is fucking *weird*, man. They actually claimed we're their greatest foreign ally ten plus some odd years ago.
the inanity of the comments here given the erudtion of the discussion is quite striking
Lots of cope
Why do you say that?
China are transforming their economy from low cost high manufacture to high capital high tech economy, as always they are 20 years ahead of us.
Would the US used Chinese vaccine ?
the guest offered an opinion 😐
The Chinese are too smart to be subject to European anxiety and jealousy.
It’s good to see a really great economist talk, unlike the 800 apparatchiks at Federal Reserve.
LOL All the China trolls in the comment section. Que the “It’s afraid” Starship Troopers meme😂
3:29 and that started me thinking
📱Ringing XD .... ... shooting people with Phone 🤣🤣🤣
T____T Then ambulance ring at 2 minutes later. Better Call James, the Who.
China definitely needs some adjustment, after that the economy will grow at high speed again given the excellent infrastructure built in the last decade. what's good is China will be less reliant on the USA.
China remember a working model... westerner call it: All Road Lead to Rome. Welcome China BRI.
I suggest this gentleman go read the Brundtland Commission report Our Common Future as a backgrounder for understanding the paradigm shift in the way China design it's development model.
THEY ARE UNSTOPPABLE GET READY
No worry let Chinese worry about it. Look for another dilusion .Indian military veterans
This channel is losing its credibility when you rely on a non Chinese expert talking about China.
What would you call the Americans seizing the billions of nation states' funds in America and Europe? Billions owned by Russia, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq etc etc, arbitrarily? What about imposing sanctions on Cuba and North Korea for more than 70 years? Not arbitrarily taking away the rights of their people to live decently?
What a magnificent back-and-forth and analysis by you both! And, at the end, the questioners. Thank you so much.
lol complete trash analysis
I agree. True brilliance and humility.