Experts predict global fossil fuel giants will lose billions & struggle to survive
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 เม.ย. 2024
- Experts predict global fossil fuel giants will lose billions & struggle to survive
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I read some books by Victor Smil, on energy. When there is a transition of energy to a more powerful, or better source, there is a huge shift in society. Think from horses ploughing, to tractors ploughing. With almost limitless, "free", clean energy from the sun, the possibilities are endless...
We know what an economy running on solar energy looks like. It looks like mediaeval Europe.
Vaclav Smil?
I work in utility-scale solar + battery storage in the U.S., and we already have nearly 50% of total U.S. power capacity installed, or late in development, from solar only, today. This doesn’t include wind, hydro and nuclear, which makes up 30% of capacity.
🔌🔌Solar and wind without batteries will not replace natural gas because we still need peaking plants. It will take many years to add more batteries to cover peaking demands. Hydro, thermal, coal, natural gas, and batteries proved peaking. Nuclear, solar, and wind are good for base loading.🔌🔌
@@Carl_in_AZ modern nuclear can scale production very quickly, from 20% to 80% within an hour. With new monitoring technology and good algorithms, it can be automated.
There is very very little grid scale battery capacity in the US. It is impossible to produce enough batteries for it to work on the needed scale Or expand the grid enough.
yeah yeah... and tanks and fighter jets carry batteries with them..... dream more mate....
@@user-ql9jw3pl9h what modern nuclear? there are very few nuclear power stations that arent decades old.
It’s not that these people (believing the lies about EV’s, solar etc.) are unintelligent. As a general rule, people don’t like big changes, and the fossil fuel companies give talking points for people to cling to, so that they can cling to their life as they know it. Driving an EV requires a slightly different mindset (although as charging times reduce, and range increases, this difference becomes smaller), and, like the idea of using home solar versus buying your electricity from whoever attached wires to your house, it’s a change.
It is a lot easier to believe something that wraps you in a warm blanket of the past that doesn’t change your world view than to be at the front of something that appears to be changing the world you know.
Precisely
Yeah the public doesn't value things like having a range of >1000 Kms, being able to tow a trailer, boat, caravan etc and not have to recharge every 150 km, being able to refill your tank and leave in under 5 minutes, not having to worry about your car catching fire in your garage while you are asleep, or the battery needing replacement in ten years - EV's suit a small part of the market - people who live in cities/towns and commute to work and don't need to travel long distances or tow anything. As for trucks the last one I saw was a Cement Australia EV truck that was just on the road - a new vehicle that spontaneously burst into flames on the Westgate bridge and was destroyed.
@@elastotec173 I have been driving an EV for nearly 4 years now, we have a relatively cheap EV (an MG ZS) so the range is ONLY 330km, if we are in a hurry on a trip we manage about 250 to 300 km, (Most newer EV's have ranges in excess of 400km now, some up to 600km) stop to charge, get a coffee and a snack, go back to the car (about 30 minutes to 80% charge), and can then drive another 200 km's, and same again, so my experience negates your claim of "150km range", we can tow a boat or trailer, or caravan no problems.
Here in thailand we have full service, at servos, that is, you pull up, someone fills your tank, you pay and drive off all without getting out of the car, and when we had an ICE car (a honda Jazz with a smallish tank that should be quick to fill) it would NEVER take less than 10 minutes to fill and pay, when I was in Australia, self service, get out, fill, walk inside the servo, wait your turn pay, walk back to the car, again, the best I could manage was 10 minutes when I filled the tank at 3 am with no one else in the servo, and even then, 9 times out of 10 you move the car, go to the toilet (especially on long trips)
Oh, and I live in a country town, 30 k's to the nearest supermarket, more than 200 k's to Bangkok
And it is really nice to just plug it in at home, and not have to give my hard earned cash to one of the rapacious fuel companies.
Also, not having to service the car every 6 months (the average life span of an oil change) and since the engine doesn't need tuning, oil, spark plugs, air filters, oil filters, fuel filters, or any of the Myriad of other consumables that an ICE car needs (we still need Brake fluid and air conditioning gas)), We have serviced our car 5 times now, for a toal cost of less than Au$250, that's total, not per service (as a comparison our Honda was averaging Au$300 or more per service), and our 'fuel' costs on a longer trip are about ¼ of the fuel costs of our Honda
As for trucks and cars catching fire, I could also quote the number of ICE car fires I have seen in my life, they are not exactly a non-event,
Vehicle fires happen, and in the last few years there have been (for example) a number of new buses catching fire 'spontaneously'., are you going to say buses should be taken off the road ?, what about all the Ford Pintos that would explode in America when they came out ?, Does that mean all ICE cars should have be taken off the road ?
In this age of information you could consider people who are uninformed about important things in their lives to be unintelligent. Nowadays intelligent people realize you need more than one source of information before forming a strong opinion on an important subject.
@@richardnwilson AMEN.
Sam, I remember back in 2018 a study promoted by the Saudi Arabia Government and OPEC predicted that the Oil Market would reach a peak around 2030 and from there started to decrease, so by 2050 it will be around just 25% of what it was in 2017. The Saudis know that trend and that is the reason why they are investing heavily in Tourism and Renewable Energy Technology.
Independent petroleum experts estimate that the US fracking production will decline significantly over the next 10 years. In addition, there are very few regions in the World that can be fracked. This will lead to significant reductions in oil production. We need to get moving in EVs and alternative chemical feed stocks or things are going to be grim.
@@user-zb2st6zi6j Yes you're correct about fracking. It's only the shale beds in the US that happen to be flat and unfaulted enough to do lateral drilling for long distances. Fracking has been a bust everywhere else in the world. Geologists think the UK's shale gas has already leaked out millions of years ago.
Not one figure in this video... Not documented
Who are those 'independent experts'?
@@eilaollinheimo4573 Look at Art Berman. Of course, there is a bit debate over whether shale oil is peaking or not. Do a search on peak shale oil and you can see both sides.
I’ve heard that China is still building multiple coal plants but is running many of them at a lower capacity. Can u do a video on what is up with them, are they more efficient, is it like their housing, just keep on building regardless of demand ??? Would love to see their renewable dominate coal out of existence
It doesn't matter. We pollute way more than China per capita.
A lot of these will never be started since it will be too expensive to burn the coal. Simply put, they will be stranded assets.
Future is looking brighter every year :)
Demographic collapse, not so many people not so much energy required!
@@thehobo54 The communist government in China builds things that don't make sense. It is part of being communist. They did that in the Soviet Union also.
Electricity demand is till booming widely across China-and they install massively more renewables in -remote desert regions.They have a central government that can just stop temporary coal plants instantly and this will happen
Oil is a marginally priced commodity and very 'elastic' in pricing and as such price can be highly affected by quite small changes in demand.
A collapse in price might seem inevitable if EV's and transport continue to develop, but... big but... it depends on how well the cartels can continue to restrict supply to stop prices falling. It is the question.. is their honor amongst thieves. If the co-operative front starts to erode with weak dictators needing their cash fix and doing gray market sales to maintain cash flows, it could all come apart really quickly. There will still be plenty of oil flowing, but at what price? That is the real question.
What I think we'll see for a coming short period is the 'oil cartel' supporting high oil prices by limiting production. They are likely to squirrel away as much cash as possible while they can.
Once demand has dropped closer to 10% I think we'll see lower cost producers dropping their prices in order to force the higher cost producers out of the market.
I think we've already seen that to some extent. Oil prices dropped below production costs for much of the tar sands industry and Bakin shale oil fields. Once shut down, it's too risky and expensive for them to restart.
Haha. Guess what? The price wont be below the cost of production, which is slowly escalating. Also, oil and natural gas will be produced and sold in large quantities even if every automobile world wide becomes EV.
There's also economies of scale to contend with.
As consumption drops, the cost to produce gas /diesel increases.
No doubt there will also be some fire sales along the way. But the upwards cost of gas and diesel will keep increasing over time, possibly exponentially as those economies of scale drop.
@@jrwstl02 The end price will be determined by the least cost producer. In this case probably Saudi's. Around 10 bucks a barrel at the extreme. High cost producers... like oil-sands, will be forced out.
The Oil cartels are not in the business of oil, they are in the oil shortage business. They control the price by how much they release for public consumption.
8000 years ago the Mesopotamians knew how to get oil from shallow digs and burn it. The burning of fossil fuels is very ancient indeed. The modern, non-burning uses of petroleum to make plastics and other chemicals is the new part
The issue is fossil fuel. Not industrial feedstock.
the internal combustion engine is pretty new. it was only possible because we already had an economy running on coal so we had enough steel and precise engineering to build them.
ICE can also easily be converted to various other fuels such as efuel and existing gas stations used for distribution. I guess EV folks have not taken into account the footprint of building whole new infrastructure
@@eilaollinheimo4573
Petroleum is cheaper than alternatives. Oil will be left behind for economic reasons.
Most places in the world are connected to the grid. The infrastructure for EVs is largely in place. Some places need rapid chargers. Rapid chargers are being installed at a nice clip.
Most places in the wold are not. Many developing countries will need transition fuels such as gas and oil to get where we are. You seem to only research very little.
I don't think there'll be a massive collapse, maybe an adjustment of 10 to 20%, because cars don't use the majority of the world's fossil fuels. The demand from aviation, shipping, long distance road transport, plastics manufacturing, fertilizers, etc is not going to go away immediately. In the case of aviation, it'll be a long time, if ever that we are going to be able to travel long distances by air without fossil fuels.
The issue is that a relatively small decrease in demand can cause a much larger drop in prices. Think about what happened during COVID - actual demand only dropped by something like 20% but at one point the price of oil actually went negative.
Companies have committed expenses - expenses they cannot avoid - whether they extract/produce and sell or not. Selling at a loss can be less expensive than not selling at all, but both are financially destructive.
60% of all oil is used for road transportation, Airlines only use 10% or something. If that 60% drops to 10% as well this has a profound impact on the oil and gas industry. The expensive forms of oil extraction like fracking and deep sea drilling will no longer be viable stranding hundreds of billions of investments. In the Netherlands new houses no longer get a natural gas line connection all delivered with electrical heating. Also existing homes are changing over to electrical heating. The same time more and more electricity comes from renewable sources, more and more solar panels on roofs, and one after the other wind turbine comes online. Off shore wind is planned to provide 90% of all of the Netherlands energy needs by 2040, but I think it will be before that as building windturbines goes faster and faster.
For fertilizers and other industries it can turn green using green hydrogen but that's tied to the cost of electrolyzers
Currently green hydrogen costs the equivalent of 100$ per oil barrel and the projections say it will cost 50$ per barrel in 2035ish, at that time green fertilizers, steel and plastic industries will be competitive and using taxes industries powered by fossil fuels will not be able to compete against green industries
Oil producers have costs attached & if demand outstrips production, suddenly the producers can lose more money, just incurring storage costs... but even then, storage is very limited & so quickly, they are compelled to sell at a loss, in order to simply manage their stock levels...
@@mongo64071 Nope, peak oil was in 2017 it has been declining ever since, the trend is clear.
Who is most active in lobbying for all things EV and Solar panels and batteries? … the one who produces the most and has near monopoly … China
It sounds like you're offering a paranoid conspiracy theory
EVs are easier to manufacture than ICEs. If China tries to leverage their production lines to blackmail the west, the west will simply set up domestic EV manufacturing
They are less corrupt?🇨🇳🤔
I Thought Mary Barra was leading the EV revolution...
The U.S. Republicans refused to fund solar development. The Chinese did, and I guess that makes them evil.
Last year the sale of fossil fuels fell by one percent for the first time ever although it is a very small it may a sign of things to come
Doesn't follow.
global economic slow down.
And that 1% decrease in fossil fuel demand mirrors the small (so far) market shift from ICEVs to EVs. With EVs now reaching and soon falling lower than the manufacturing cost for similar-feature ICEVs we are almost certain to see a year after year increase in EV uptake.
Additionally, legacy companies that failed to heed the more than ample warning of coming EVs are now scrambling to produce vehicles that use less fuel per mile. Just moving to simple hybrids, which a number of legacy companies are doing, will reduce oil demand.
While many EV manufacturing companies have decided to stop making them as they do not sell that well
@@eilaollinheimo4573
Some legacy ICEV manufacturers are pulling back from EVs because they are unable to offer EVs that the market wants. Those companies refused to take EVs seriously enough and have found themselves undercut by manufacturers who set out to make great EVs earlier.
Unfortunately you have bought into the FUD about EVs not selling well. EVs continue to take more and more market share away from ICEVs.
As I said in an earlier post, renewables and EVs have saved us from the impact of the Russian oil and gas cuts. Gasoline and Natural Gas would be incredibly expensive without them.
Russia didn’t “cut oil and gas”. The U.S sanctioned and destroyed infrastructure to supply Germany and Germans bent over and said yes please America.. EV’s also haven’t “Saved us” from the impacts of forced sanctions and US terrorism.
US consumption reduction will reduce the need for the American government from creating wars around the world. To me this is just as important if not significantly more so
@@ricecrash5225 they did cut gas. They stopped delivering it via NS pipes weeks before they were blown up
😂 How is that? Are you kidding?
Yes, Germany was pissed!
When the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow, the Evs turn their lights on and keep driving.
It's a miracle, as Scott Morrison would say. 😮😮😮😮😮
Shell has announced plans to install 50,000 EV charging stations worldwide by 2025, and BP is investing a billion dollars in a plan to increase its EV charging points from 7,500 to 70,000 by 2030. So still fuel stations but not fossil fuel.
And everyone that uses them will be bled dry. Great success!!!
You don’t get your gasoline for free why do you think electric is going to be free? most people charge at home. They’re not going to use those filling stations for electric.
@@robertfonovic3551 I hope that competition will help lower charging station prices.
People that go from point A to point B will. Travelers, people on vaykay will use them. Also long-distance commuters will use them.
Thanks Steve. I heard this too. But different numbers.
Have you link to your source?
Oil companies are already complaining their sales are down in the US.
Their reaction to that is to raise prices and make the remaining customers fill in the shortfall.
Customer service at its best.
!
578 GW of coal capacity is in development. That includes 408 GW in China alone and is enough to power the whole of India. Just under 200 GW is under construction, including 140 GW in China
"natural gas" is 80x more potent than CO2 for heating/polluting Earth.
It's worse if there's any leaks and there is always leaking pipelines, wells and refineries
China is replacing old coal powerplants with newer ones. They will consume less coal for the same power generation, they will pollute less because of modern filters, and they will eventually be used as peaker plants to supplement renewables.
Overall they will reduce pollution, but not to a complete zero
A bit of perspective: Australia’s coal exports are more about the metallurgical grade not thermal, its exports of LNG are locked in long term contracts. The problems in Russia aren’t going away and the Middle East is a disaster area of unpredictability. Which leaves Australia as one of the very few reliable exporters of coal and gas, which tends to increased exports rather than following the medium term trend of less demand.
Actually that's no longer true. Austrialia only has poor quality coal left; I'm not sure China is using it for coking any more. If they are then the world economy is going to be in serious trouble pretty soon.
@@Withnail1969 Get off the turps. Australian metallurgical coal is the world’s highest grade and there are ridiculous amounts of it.
@@seanlander9321 you are totally wrong. Australia has mostly trashy brown coal left. the good stuff is long gone. i'm talking about coal that can be economically mined. most coal has to stay in the ground.
@@Withnail1969 Delusional. What ever you’re on, can I have some? ‘Cause reality sucks.
@@seanlander9321 do you understand the difference between a resource in the ground and a resource in the ground that it's actually affordable to mine? not the same thing. why is australia's coal production falling so drastically? its gone off a cliff since 2019 and there's no shortage of buyers if the price is right. we're desperate for it in europe if you dont want to sell to China.
Experts and Economists are saying….. Sorry if I’m not impressed by that reference.
Sam has done several videos where Tony Seba has predicted these changes. It is phenomenal how right Tony's predictions have been since his book in 2014. It is dated but read Tony's book "Clean Disruption."
@@Clint-stanley Yes, he has had a good record. My issue is that there is far too much credence given to so called “experts and economists” who are frequently wrong and suffer no consequences for their prognostications.
The estimates on how fast EVs and renewable energy will increase have always been low. This is because everyone assumes that the technology will stay the same. It doesn't and as it improves, sales go up.
Agreed. Why can't we just get Tony Seba to do some reasonable assumptions and come up with a graph showing the decline in gas and oil production? It would certainly help FOCUS this discussion!
Fact - not enough rare earth metals to make this ev transition move up more than a few percent. What a dreamer.
I don't think gasoline businesses are going to go out of business anytime soon. I can see coal waning off. Natural gas and gasoline may decline some - but it's going take decades for them to disappear completely.
Your kidding yeah
When green hydrogen becomes competitive I think govts will send fossil fuels to oblivion through taxes, if govts do not intervene it will never disappear
Australia phasing out gas in homes & cars 2024
Then why did Shell shutter 1000 gas stations and purchase 100k chargers? Sounds like change is coming.
@@kaijen2688 Maybe in AUS? Not in the US. There's decent EV adoption where I live - but I'm pretty sure I live in an anomaly for the US. We still use A LOT of natural gas for power generation in California too.
I predict that electricity rates will climb as the shift occurs
More suppliers introduce competition. Ideally lots of DIY electricity.
Shell now converting their first 1000 gasaholeline stations too charging stations. This could be pricey electricity.
Fossil fuel will always be a monopolized leash on society.
Already happening with PG&E in CA.
With cheap batteries and cheap solar in a few years we make our own rates. I would have hoped that home battery prices would be lower by now, but the decline is slow. But this will happen.
@@Romerso1 think DIY. Robert Murray Smith on YT. goes into this considerably
@Romerso1 Pushing on a string. technology always takes much longer to commercialize than expected, and it's terrible policy to create expectations around products that don't exist.
Sam, good topic, but would it kill you to include a graph now and then?
Indeed. And to quote sources. Who are these 'experts'?
@@kiae-nirodiariesencore4270 AMEN. When I hear "expert" I cannot help but wonder who they are and what is motivating them.
Here's a question for you. How much do you think it would cost to build wind and/or solar generation capacity with battery storage, to replace a 2000MW gas-fired power station. Obviously you need to guarantee 2000MW output continuously round the clock, week in, week out, so bear this in mind when deciding how many wind turbines you need and how much battery storage is required.
His theories are pure fantasy.
Natural Gas is unlikely to keep being this cheap, as it is partly extracted as a by-product of oil.
We'll see how hard the fall will be, but brace for that uppercut!
That applies to plastics and rubbers aswell. Unfortunately what we save with Electricity and EVs will be superceded by 3$ plastic cups holding .30c worth of mountain dew.
Almost all vehicles are plastic Body trims, may see a revert back towards full metal, but who knows.
Plastic prices are highly dependent on oil prices and consequently reliant on fuel demand. Oil may feel a temporary loss, but since we still consume the same amount of plastic and rubber, I'd imagine they will just charge more for such to cover costs.
The big question is what do we do with the light fuels. We can't distill oil to extract heavy oils for plastics without creating light fuels, and we can't burn them, or bury it. So plastics will likely skyrocket.
Which is why I believe Oil stock like ExxonMobil have been growing regardless of the EV push, because their profits from fuel is only a portion of their profits.
@@AhjTheMediocre True, but at some point we'll probably start seeing biodegradeable plastics become cheaper than oil based plastics.
We have the technology already it just needs to be worth making.
@wertigon biodegradable plastic is only useful for short-lived means, plastic cups, food products, the such. Anything expected to last can't be biodegradable, cars, electronics, machinery, clothing, essentially everything.
It's unknown as to what will really happen, but regardless the shear volume we need, will never be covered by biodegradable plastics.
Some plastics need to last. MRI frames etc should stay durable
Problem is that EV sales are going flat right now. Hybrid vehicles are going up. Coal is over, but It's going to be a long time till liquid hydrocarbons are done for.
WRONG.
EV sales are up massively still....... But there are looming problems..... One of which is that China has built millions of Ev that need homes to go to.. and they're willing to let them go there at dirt cheap prices
Australia shipped record tonnes of coal last year and existing mines are expanding output based on demand - plant of people in China, India and Asia who are just getting electricity to their homes want cheap coal fired energy and they cant afford expensive renewables.
Not true. Car manufacturers are ditching EV due low sales
Don't we need fossil fuels to create plastic, car tyres, aviation fuel, shipping fuel, components for EV, fibre glass for wind farms, components for solar panels, bitumen for our roads, cement for concrete, the interior fittings including seats for EV's, clothing including shoes? What about medical equipment? How do they produce rocket fuel? Do they need oil for that. Come to think about it.....what do we use for packaging? Do we pacl frozen foods in paper bags or plastics. I also wonder about lubricants such sa grease and lubricating oil? Are we stopping oil immediately or will we phase it out over the next hundreds of years? I now worry about manufacturing. Will we finally halt all manufacturing in Australia. Will we all just go back to the cave? I really wonder.
When asking the question "what is going to happen in the future?", we need to distinguish between what will happen and what should happen. With correct policy, what should happen will be the same as what will happen. With incorrect policy they will be different.
I completely agree with you, Sam. The fact that electric 2x and 3x wheelers around the world late last year had been discovered to permanently reduce oil demand by 1.5 million barrels per day (whilst EVs were 1 million barrels per day) was a drop-the-mic moment for me. Natural gas generation will absolutely collapse sooner than later, simply because the cost and performance of solar and storage (and wind) continues to improve massively.
I hope you are right. Nuclear could help immensely. I doubt that windmills, solar farms, and falling water can meet the energy requirements of a total EV or mostly EV USA. Natural gas, and some coal, will probably be spinning the alternators that make the electricity that EVs use for some time. Remoting that activity away from big cities is a great benefit, however. It gets the smog out.
Wishful thinking. NG might decline quickly because fracking wells in the US deplete faster than standard oil wells where gas is a byproduct. We've seen a big spike in capacity, but it could decline just as quickly.
3:36 I don't see anything backing up the statement that "China's coal demand is going down". The IEA estimates its demand was UP 7% in 2023 and though it might peak soon, it will plateau for a while.
Petroleum prices will be dirt cheap to maintain some cashflow.
Feedstock to the petrochemical industry will be maintained.
Emergency heating in mid winter weeks with be available.
2nd hand parts will be abundant from used vehicles.
😊😊😊😊
In China, 47.4GW of coal power capacity came online in 2023, Globa Energy Monitor says. This increase accounted for two-thirds of the global rise in operating coal power capacity, which climbed 2% to 2,130GW. China's 70.2GW of NEW construction getting underway in 2023 represents 19-times more than the rest of the world's 3.7GW. In the third quarter of 2023, however, China permitted more new coal plants than in all of 2021, according to Greenpeace, even as Australia has stopped building new coal-fired power and is phasing out plants.
I'll believe it when I see it !! Oil will continue to be a big part of the world economy for the next 20 years minimum! It's going to take that long for the electrical grid to be enlarged and updated to meet the increasing demand !!!
My questions is- Who is going to clean up the terrible mess left behind after the fossil fuel industry collapses? We should be pressuring our governments to pass laws requiring these companies to purchase insurance so taxpayers don't end up on the hook for the cost of the cleanup and to prohibit these companies from passing that cost onto the public.
I applaud your green enthusiasm, but U.S. government reports renewables are only 20% of U.S. ELECTRICAL energy, and less of the total energy. The Aussie government shows 30% of total power from renewables. China is still building two new coal fired power plants per week and India is bringing on 17 MW of coal power plants in the next few years.
The direction towards renewables is good, but I believe we have 2 or 3 generations until the green world you think will be here in 5 - 10 years.
"That's never going to happen again"........ until it does. If I had a dollar for every time I've heard that bold prediction
You are dreaming if you think oil demand is going to fall. The use will slowly shift away from transport and electricity, while the use in industry (plastics, petro-chemicals, fertiliser etc) will continue to grow
The phase-out period for combustion transport is 30 years. The phase-out period for coal is also 30 years. There is currently no phase-out period for natural gas. So this "next 5 year" period you speak of is simply unachievable
And the Ukraine war has not had a significant effect on global oil extraction. OPEC has had a far greater effect than the war
But carry on, don't let facts get in the way of your hyperbole
It is ok
Economy will push us toward renewables
Well yeah coal was first and seems inevitable oil next and probably gas centric ones in trouble after 2030💯💚
We may need to prop up the gasoline refining industry, after it becomes unprofitable. As the 20% or so still using gasoline will need a way to get to work until they buy an EV or find another alternative. Hopefully those depending on natural gas heat will not have as many problems. But overall, this is a very good thing to hear about.
I think the US Will prop up the oil industry, for the reasons you cited, but we don't Need to prop them up any more than we propped up the oat sellers and livery operators. As much as the politicians in the US decry socialism, they are quick to hand money out to anyone who promises to deliver voters to them. Propping up the dying oil industry will provide a lot of votes.
The only way this is feasible is if the DNC suddenly gets religion and starts advocating for the lowest carbon-producing power source--nuclear. But they can't do that because there are too many Sierra Club boomer hippies who still believe nuclear is evil because they watched a movie in 1979.
I think that bio-gas and nuclear power plants might be still needed for some time in the mix until the energy storage costs are even lower. A longer time low cost energy storage without significant leakage is also needed. Power grids also need a lot of improvements.
Natural gas will not go away. It is to valuable as feedstock to the chemicals industry.
"Experts" How come nobody ever lists these "experts" in their videos and articles? Which experts are predicting this?
LOL, like it took experts to convince you it wasn't true.
As they say, “Bye Felicia” .. don’t let the door hit you where the good lord split you
We need the COP meetings from being rewarded to oil and coal Oligarches but instead to model climate mitigating countries. Model cities, not cities, selling great gobs of oil and gas.
However we need to do something in the mean time. Make sure our politicians and leaders are staying focused on only renewable options. This means at the local level!
music to my ears
EV sales are stalling and numbers are much lower then projected and a big percentage of the owner are very unhappy. mainwhile, car maker are taking huge losses. Price and infrastructure and time of charging are main reason for people not want to buy EVs. And finally, after selling millions of EVs, the consume of oil is still growing and nor deceasing. I dont know what economist you are talking about the majority of ther says otherwise.Recently i saw someone saying that in order to charge his car superfest, he need a very special supercharger and not a regular one whor requires hours to do so. He says that if he knew that , he would not buy one.
Just wish the grid would get smarter and get there quicker.... A mega pack at every substation would do a huge job in making the grid more flexible. So many grid could almost be self-sustaining if there was just one mega pack at the substation. Add in bi directional charging and it's all over.
London diesel fuel sales in the ULEZ have dropped 40% in two years. Finding that fuel at fuel stations will be getting more difficult in the not too distant future.
Would it were so...
Would love this to be true, but it's highly unlikely. The overall percentage of fossil fuel usage, currently sitting at around 85%, hasn't budged, despite all the new renewable sources that have been brought online over the past 20 years.
The main reason for this is that OVERALL energy usage (as well as population) just keeps increasing. In order for fossil fuel usage to decrease, this overall energy usage will need to decrease. There doesn't seem to be any appetite for this necessary change in any governing bodies on the planet.
Just adding additional SOURCES of energy (in renewables) does not decrease overall energy usage; it just throws some carbon-free, less toxic kerosene on the fire.
Fossil fuel companies are more likely to be hurt by decreasing reserves and increasing costs to tap those reserves, than any real competition from renewables--at least in the near term.
Another factor here is that renewables address electricity usage, which accounts for ONLY 1/3 of all energy usage. Everything else runs on fossil fuels (especially diesel and oil).
The actual solution will involve a radical rethinking of the global economy that drastically reduces energy usage; those that run and profit from the current system will be the biggest obstacles to this necessary change--and that includes Tesla.
Nuclear electricity generation utility factor will implode as EVs and rooftop PV explode.
EVs selfplug-in V2G utility factors will break nuclear grid electricity utility factor economics.
We need Electric Semis in the Agricultural industry here in the San Joaquin Valley in Central California ASAP NOW!!
I retired from a power company. About 20 years ago during an employee meeting we discussed this issue. I told our CEO we were in the power business. As change happen as it always does there will winners and losers. I told him we need to make sure we came out winners. The company is embracing solar and other green energy sources. Because it is cheaper and getting cheaper. In the southeast US where I live I see solar farms all over the place. It is coming.
I'm not sure about this. Almost all EV buyers are reselling their ICE car or using it for a hand me down to family. I'm thinking those ICE cars will be driven more miles than they were before. It's going to be many years before we see a plateau in oil demand and even longer to see it start to drop.
The oil & gas companies are prepared and are heavily invested in renewable energy sources. They will still be providers in the future.
The big oil companies had the inside track on this when their own scientists were the first to realize the effects of CO2. If they had been smart (rather than greedy) they would have invested in becoming ENERGY companies.
They will just cut production, to maintain price
So let us know when XOM is going to peak, and how high.
As far as intelligence is concerned, there are many types of intelligence. (IQ, people skills, emotional intelligence, math ability, etc etc)
Great video Sam, I agree that things could start to change very rapidly once certain tipping points are reached. Bright and breezy in the UK today, wholesale electricity price NEGATIVE £11.48/MWh, fossil fuels providing less than 7% of demand, twelfth straight week of renewables providing more electricity than fossil fuels.
The oil companies would already be in a world of hurt if drivers in the USA had not bought into the "arms race" that promotes ever increasing vehicle size. It takes a lot of oil for so many people to drive monster pickups and SU-buses.
The stone age did not stop for lack of stones, the bronze age did not stop from lack of bronze, the fossil fuel age will not stop from lack of fossil fuels, all hail the renewable age for it commeth.
I wonder how the reduction in fossil fuel use for propulsion and energy production will affect the manufacturing side. I would think the cost of a barrel of oil is going to increase as it is used less and less. But you will still need oil for the foreseeable future for manufacturing material goods.
EV sales stalled, EV drivers reverting back to ICE & Hybrids. Big oil aren’t losing any sleep.
While I agree that we are at or near peak fossil fuel demand I less convinced that the downward slope will be a steep as Sam thinks. For example here in the UK there are 41.3 million vehicles on UK roads. Only about a million of these are currently EVs. Sales of new cars in the UK run at about 1.8 million cars of all types per year so you can see that its going top take a while for the ICE fleet to decline. Yes I know that the UK is only the 7th largest market and that China is much bigger but I think the UK is more representative of the rest of the developed world.
Don't get me wrong, not much would give me more pleasure than to see loads of EV haters crying over the fact that they were struggling to find pollution juice to burn but I don't think we are going to see this for a while.
However, I do agree with Sam that the sales of ICE cars will soon collapse, we are starting to see the changes in the UK where diesel sales have gone off a cliff and hybrid and EV sales are rising. Once EVs start undercutting ICE and hybrids on price there will be a very rapid shift to EVs in terms of new car sales. Why would anyone in their right minds by an ICE that is more expensive to buy, slower, noisier, more to fuel and more expensive to service? I would also suggest that the value of most used ICE cars will also crash as the price of fuel will inevitably rise and public confidence in EVs increases.
I’ve been saying for a few years now the only reason gas is not $7/gal is because oil companies are afraid the last straw will break because EVs are now a viable alternative to high gas prices. The irony is that anti-EV gas engine fans despise EVs but this is the only reason they aren’t emptying out their wallets every time they go to the gas station. Oil companies know they are in the crosshairs and are hesitant to raise prices too much too soon or else their entire business model collapses.
Just as there have been a string of TESLA Killers that failed, Fossil Fuel Killers will also Fail. The Elimination of Fossil Fuels will be a steady and incremental decline, not a sudden drop off....
A dozen years ago China promised that the new coal fired power plants, using steam at about 550 Celsius, would be provided with nuclear reactors when these became available. Old fashioned PWR only produce steam of about 330 Celsius but Det Norske Veritas recently approved a large container ship powered by a molten salt nuclear reactor which does produce steam of the temperature to replace the coal fired steam generators. The power plants will probably use reactors that breed U233 from Thorium.
Well there might be a "floor" in gas prices due to plastics demand (Lego, bottles, etc.). In other words even if we all start driving EVs, install wind, solar, and water renewable energy sources we still may have quite the craving for plastics (3d printers etc.). This will never replace transportation demand as far as I can tell. On a side note didn't Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffet) make pretty big oil industry investments recently? What's up with that decision if true?
Soon electricity will cost more than gas with new taxes introduced by the governments to compensate for loss of fuel taxes and don’t forget road taxes on EVs and surge pricing for charging stations.
Oil Lobby is controlling the minister of traffic here in Germany.
Your reporting on the reality of Eevee's and future transport is truly enlightening Sam you are a light in the darkness when it comes to the backward mentality of many Australians the problem is people are going to be left with stranded assets in the end so they better start thinking to come into the 21st century governments need to start subsidising for low wage earners or creating leasing arrangements keep up the great work mate you are a Powerhouse
Imagine a cure for all cancers. Many would loose their job and investments. This is similar only slowly playing out. There will however be a need for fossils at a much less rate of consumption.
should we all shed a "tear" for them.... NO NO NO Side effects utilities too infrastructure is too costly to maintain
Music to my ears. Natural gas is also used to make fertilizer, isn't it? Will be around for a while, but that's ok not burning it for that.
Can you please provide your sources i e. The economists you are quoting, so i can check and verify your claims?
When it comes to Coal, it is clearly doomed. Can't run vehicles on it directly, It is needs to be mined and shipped to powerplants which is alot of overhead costs that Gas and Renewables don't have. As for gas, it does have some place but will likely be in decline as well. The health effects of cooking with gas has turned alot of people off to using it that way, And for home heating in very cold climates during harsh winters, gas is still the cheapest way to heat homes. As for making electricity with it, It has a function of being able to adjust to demand, so storage will have to make more progress, Batteries, Hydrogen, and Pumped Hydro and perhaps other forms of energy storage will work there.
Most coal companies are diversified.
News to me. What we're seeing in the US is coal companies going bankrupt.
I don't know if a collapse is the right term. I agree, fossil fuel demand with be reduced as we depend on renewals. However, there is a huge market for consumer goods and products that are produced from fossil fuels and I don't see conversion away from using fossil fuels for these products.
His production is a pure fantasy.
Small violin plays.
There is enough oil in the ground to feed the cars for many years ahead. The politicians should recognize that there are wast majority of a fossil fuel cars on earth and that people will stick with their cars in the future long time ahead ! EVs are still a considerable majority .
The long run favors renewable energy, but the long run is just that ... a long time from now. There is no possible battery technology even conceivable that can replace jet fuel for long distance flights carrying hundreds of people -- the energy storage density of the best batteries offer only about 5% the energy. by mass, of jet fuel. The Airbus A-380, when operating international flights (long, over ocean) may have as much as 300,000 kg's of fuel, 660,000 pounds of fuel, to cover those long distance flights. The battery needed would be 20X that or over 6000 tonnes, but then the plane would be 20X heavier so it would need even bigger batteries. In fact, this highlights the fact that this type of flight, common in the commercial aviation industry, is simply not possible and when I say not possible I mean not even remotely possible and by more than a factor of 10!. Also, long haul trucking and trains are not viable on batteries and the test customers of the Tesla Semi will discover that battery powered trucks are not viable for long haul service. If you have to fully charge the battery EVERY DAY the lifespan of the battery will be only a few years and with a replacement cost that might well exceed $200K the economy just doesn't work out. In this regard Bezos made the wiser decision to focus on delivery vans that seldom need to travel more than 250 miles per day and often much less.
This isn't good or bad news. After the first year they actually lose money it's news. This is just people saying words.
What are the numbers of Australian coal going to China???
A shitload. Hope that helps😅
That sounds like great news for all ICE car owners as they will enjoy lower prices at the pump.
Put this on the shelf with global cooling, over population, and global warming.
If fossil fuel demand collapses what will they run all those diesel generators on that charge the VSMs?
You should cover the predictions of Art Berman, fossil fuel geologist!
I love it when the transition to clean energy is rapidly increasing. Also who cares if big oil companies lose money.
Be careful of what you wish for...
Houston, we have a problem. That city bread and butter is oil and gas!
Don't think you can just swap 1.5 billion ice cars to evs in a decade. I think that they will coexist for many decades to come. To compensate for lost revenue gas companies will increase their prices, even make up new wars like iran/us/israel, to compensate for losses in the electricity sector. It is not because of pollution that the ice cars will get scrapped.
The next step in. Green energy will be the integration of home Aplaince, washing machine energy demand can be automated the coincide with Abundant solar or wind, same with refrigerator running them A few degrees lower allud to shut downs during peak demands.
4:42 "experts are saying"?
Really? Can you cite them please!
Fossil fuel composers of minority of oil products.
Also as production ramps down there will be periods when the price of fuel Skyrocket as the network effect is lost .
Also 5 years seems a bit aggressive since the earliest Ice bans started in 2030 come on right?
I think we're headed toward renewable energy and storage and it may happen faster than many think but these figures sound unrealistically fast.
How well petrol prices change at the pump?
Up and down, then up then down.
Dropping demand means shutdown of supply, but refineries are huge. Every time you close one it will drop supply below demand and shoot the prices up temporarily.
So nothing will change much price wise.
will the end of the modern economy come next as 24/7/365 power is needed for modern industry and big erratic declines could result in supply chain disruptions which could make the disruptions due to covid pale in comparison.
While methane (natural gas) is the least bad fossil fuel, it still produces one molecule of CO2 for every two of water from each methane molecule. Coal produces just CO2. Other hydro carbons produce other ratios of water to CO2. All produce CO2; all will have to go. We could have kept natural gas a lot longer if we had stopped burning coal 50 years ago and petrol 40 years ago, with diesel soon after, but we didn't so now we are in serious trouble and it is going to be tough.
I love a gas cook top. However, the time has come and putting our money where our mouth is, we have had the gas disconnected and switched to a heat pump hot water system and an induction electric cooktop.
Oil demand will fall? I’ll believe it when I see it. Oil is $85 a bbl because of the Middle East situation and because Ukraine is slowly destroying Russia’s ability to produce oil. Even if demand falls, oil prices won’t go down because producers will cut back on production of oil. Higher fuel prices will goose demand for EVs. Oil will not go away altogether because it’s needed in the production of plastics and fertilizers.
Currently that is true, but at some point supply will outpace consumption and the OPEC+ will collapse as countries try to scrape out the last of the oil wealth. Only 6 percent of oil production goes to plastics and fertilizers and some of these can be cheaply made from other sources, such as the ever abundant PLA plastics. This will eventually push prices down as demand will be very low and there will still be many countries that rely on oil wealth.
Oil prices will possibly be high for some time. But once demand drops 10% to 20% look for the lower cost producers to cut their selling price in order to gain the market, forcing higher cost producers to close down.
@@Ryan-ff2dbhow will we build (and rebuild) roads, highways, and bridges? If it’s asphalt, it requires oil production. If it’s concrete, it requires large quantities of natural gas. Even the gravel to build roadbeds requires tremendous energy to produce and transport. The steel for supports and rebar? Yes, more energy.
As long as its not burned as fuel who cares
@@jrwstl02 Um.. I didn't say oil would go away did I? I said reduced demand would "push prices down". I also in no way indicated we would need less energy.
"Experts predict...." great news bro, I never heard this before
Instead of exporting hydrocarbons, Australia could start export hydrogen 🤣
What are the prospects of intercontinental HVDC lines?
Talk on Nate hagen video. By 2040 gas and oil will no longer be available as units of energy used to extract will be more than energy extracted..
We need more details on gasoline demand drop in countries with high EV adoption...
Sinopec China's largest oil refiner has publicly said gas consumption for transportation use in china already peaked in late 2023.
Woods Mackenzie oil research firm says by 2023 or sooner nearly 22% of ALL existing us oil refineries will no longer be financially viable.
Expeng CEO says ice will become unprofitable to make for mass production by the end of 2025 for chinese oems or sooner!
China's hit 43% nev adoption rate already in 2024, summer should see it hit 50%&end the year close to 50% overall adoption rate.
In some countries it's the electric lawn equipment, electric scooters, mopeds, motorcycles, tuk tuks, constriction equipment and buses, trucks n trains that are gonna decimating fossil fuel consumption day over day yoy. The next 3 years are gonna be interesting no doubt! 😎
Won’t be a collapse, I’m sure there will be challenges and demand will reduce. However there’s many years of coal reliance left.