Why is there not even one single analyst talking about the risk that has been created by the Fed by keeping 300 year low interest rates for the past 15 years? (This has never been done before.) Not ONE single analyst has so much as even raised this issue?
Sorry, Adam, the chart I looked at is HSGFX. That's someone's life-savings he shamelessly loses, year in year out, by being unaccountably crap at his job.
I believe getting hold of John Husman was a major achievement for your program and a really great service to your subscriber and followers. Thank you Adam for your hard and excellent work !!
Beneath the analysis are a few gems I hadn't heard before. Manage your capacity for regret. Prepare for being wrong and for being correct: you will experience both. Plan informed decisions ahead of time amap. Most of all, avoid reacting to the short term potent emotions of greed and fear which can override all of the above.
Apparently a really great guy, but lousy market predictor. This guy has predicted 12 of the last 2 bear markets lol. Check his funds, one of his main growth funds actually lost money over like a 10 year period that was one of the largest bull markets in history. If you completely miss one of the greatest bull markets in history, you are one of the very worst lol. Here was article in the middle of it..."learning-from-a-lagging-mutual-fund-1426259640" from WSJ.
Adam, you should try to conceal your excitement when interviewing bears 😂 John is a class act, I've followed him for years, his cautious stance will be proven right, I think we are making a generational top here
Hussman is the greatest. How nice to have him on. I love his newsletter and analysis and he is completely correct that the absurd valuations must normalize. It’s going to be a rough road ahead.
@@variousstuff6469 The reason Mr. Hussman takes time to speak about past performance is that his long term record in Strategic Return is abysmal. Look at the 10 or 15 yr return stream..
Folks have been sharing Hussman comments with me for decades. But when I look at his fund performance I see abysmal results. Am I missing something? I agree with John's thesis, but I just wonder why his analysis can't result in market outperformance over multiple market cycles.
Hussman sounds like he knows what he's doing. But the reality can be seen in the development of his investment fund: HSGFX ------- what a disaster! DISASTER !!!!!
One of favorite Wall Street phrases is “paper losses” The other is “paper profits” Unrealized Gains is perhaps the worst, as it feeds the former giving one a false sense of wealth.
Bill Gates retired off his paper profits. Heirs also receive a fictional stepped up basis from inherited property. My point is, the truly wealthy have assets that may never actualize a gain, yet their assets work for them in ways that increase their wealth without much effort. It's the ephemeral paper gains of volatile assets [*cough* GME *cough*] that yield a false perception not of wealth, but of purchasing power.
In that case our purchasing power is cut by 50-70 percent and the gap between rich and poor would go to unbelievable margins and it might cause a revolt civil war and anarchy
Cool. When did you get out of the market? How will you know when to get back in? This guests investment returns over the last two decades have been embarrassingly awful, just in case he didn’t mention it in the interview.
@@JRRob3wnTotally correct. But I have no reason to NOT believe his data and conclusions at the current time. I agree with his assessment that upside is quite limited and there is a very real chance outsized reversions may occur.
if there are derisive comments it could be because Wealthion and Stansberry and many others have been calling for a stock market crash for YEARS now. Maybe they got the narrative wrong. You might want to check out Raoul Pal and his everything code for another view. Also check out Brent Johnson and his theories. He has made a number of major correct calls re Dollar and equities over the past 5 years. Was there a "great reset" of some kind in 2008? Look at the DXY since 2008. If that's not a bullish trend I don't know what is. Could it really be the global liquidity runs the equity markets and not what this guest suggests?
Thank you, Adam. I've followed Dr Hussman's commentary for some time, clearly grounded in agonizing detail, often beyond the reach of my left hemisphere. Started watching late, but hoping to hear how volcanic geopolitical events affect his outlook. A 50-70% asset price collapse seems almost rosy; 89% is not unthinkable.
His funds would probably be better if he just used SPY when his signals are bullish and Cash when they go negative. Rather than individual stocks and hedging
There are times past performance can be indicative of future results. If you look at past markets those drops are often the case. When you add in all the bubbles together and the economic dislocations and the potential black swans overhead if we get out with only a 50% loss we will be lucky. We are at a multi generational place in history and I could be very bad.
@@danielturner9832 Once again COULD. Market timing is a risky proposition. When do you get out? Where is the bottom? When to get back in? What if you get out, then you are wrong and the market never crashes?
@@JRRob3wn It always mystifies why investors should be looking for get in/get out points. All that does is multiply the risk of doing something dumb. Buy what you want and ride out the bumps you know will come. Stocks go up, then go down, then go up higher, then down and then even higher. That's why long term investors do what they do. There's nothing hard to understand about that. No genius is required.
The market may continue to go up, if government keeps adding so much liquidity to the system. But we are in a bubble that will, at some point, have large losses. Go back and look at the GFC S&P topped at 1565 then fell to 676. Not a pleasant outcome, but we could see that again. What he is saying is: Look at the risk in your investments. How much might you lose? How much are you willing to lose. How do you minimize the loss?
Permanently elevated and continuously elevated PE/CAPE ratios brought on by ever-increasing debasement. As a young person wanting a generational buying opportunity, I wish he were right but I don’t think central banks will ever permit such a crash/devaluation to occur. The US government alone needs those tax receipts to mitigate the already insane debt levels thus its a matter of national security to keep assets permanently elevated. That and the wealth effect is the only keeping it consumption if only being done by the overwhelming minority. TL;DR - feels like animal spirits are tied to QE and the anticipation if only by viewing where rates are versus Fed Funds which would imply QE will come and even if we have a recession, ever-larger QE will occur to support assets and the systems that are dependent upon elevated asset values namely government “funding” and consumption.
Adam - I believe you're a fan as I am of Mike Maloney and something Mike said occurs to me as I look at Dr. Hussman's chart at 1:28:00. Mike said in the short-term the stock market is a voting machine, but in the long-term the stock market is a weighing machine. In other words, the purpose of markets is providing a value finding function. That means a correctly functioning stock market is doing its job finding the appropriate value for stocks given sufficient time. That makes Dr. Hussman's chart look like a beautiful representation of the stock market finding value over time, a long time. Notice how the solid dark blue line seems to try to come back to the solid green line, and the further away it strays the further it must correct to the other side as it tries to account for the "imbalance". That is very noticeable where the chart starts in 1929, for example. Afterward, the dark blue line appears to (slightly) peak above or dip below the dark green line in almost perfectly predictable fashion until 2007. In 2007 the pattern would suggest we should have dipped below the green line again (significantly) for around 10 years or so. That didn't happen. Continuing the scale analogy it looks distinctly like someone put their thumb on the scale... We know there is a bad consequence to doing that, because it throws things off, giving false readings. That reminds me of the point in the talk were you and Dr. Hussman talk about the physics of a universe unexpectedly changing.
Adam and this bear den ought to LOVE this guest😀 Unfortunately John has consistently underestimated the impact of money supply growth in fueling the massive bubble over the last decade. He WILL be proven correct.... just not yet...
Wow! What a session. Feels like I am attending the Econometrics Modeling class 29 yrs back. Only time will say which way the market will go, but I really enjoyed the session.
These guys should go in more detail when they say stocks will crash 50-70% because small and mid caps are still down 50-90%. So are just the big caps crashing? Small cap coming up? Equaling out? Or are small and mid caps going to 1$? I’m pretty sure mag 7 and big caps may come down but I don’t see small caps coming down nor do I see large caps coming down 50-70% but if they do that sounds like a buy the dip 🤔
It's just not that simple. Looking at the example of the Dot Com crash, respectable companies like Cisco and Lucent became dead money, high flyers like JDS Uniphase and Global Crossing collapsed, and stoic companies like Apple and Amazon regrouped, pivoted, and came out swinging towards the end of the 2000s. Macro analysis can predict none of this, because the success or failure of any one company is too granular to be decided by macro trends. Individual fundamental analysis will be needed to pick winners or losers. For those who don't recall the product called Value Line Investment Survey, they probably haven't developed the skill to do deep dives into companies prospects. But even Value Line came up with a score for the strength of a company that was a reasonably good indicator of whether a company could survive through multiple business cycles.
Big caps like Meta went down 75%. Why shouldnt that happen again? We are in the same situation as end of 2021 in terms of valuation, even worse in some respects.
@@wheatandtares9764 nah we in the bull market big caps will pull back because they are way over valued then money will go in small and mid caps so the market evens out then it all will continue probably for 3-5 years before something big happens
Adam, you have done more to educate the world about money and the economy than our global education systems ever did Thank you for having John on as a guest, brilliant brilliant discussion
Great guest! Positivity was through the roof. I felt uplifted towards the end of this intetview. This man is humble & I think he is in touch with mortality. What really does matter? 10% 20% 1000% returns doesnt come close to the present. What is your time worrh?
@1:18:40 -- Regarding John's observation that we've seen lots of stimulus, but little growth in productivity ... ... public debt targeted at consumption practically never increases productivity; the only thing it 'stimulates' in the long run is inflation.
@@mwilliamson4198 Correct. There is no “if” in that. Amusing how many here have convinced themselves that there is no chance of a market reversal. One of the signs of a top.
Sadly all the 401k people and pensions funds are stuck and unable to navigate this. I'm in cash and collecting interest and, yes, saving and stacking cash like a fiend. Been living this way for several years. There is a reason patience is a virtue and greed is a sin. Being a debt slave / serf is no way to go through life, either but people want new, shiny over what they can really afford if they were honest.
I changed my 401K to Bonds. It’s still not risk free but I feel a hell of lot safer with 100% bonds right now than I do with 100% equities which is what I was doing. Moved over the minute S&P hit 5400 and started seeing all of the negative sentiment lately. Seems like a good call.
Sure but having too much in cash means you miss the melt up. That said I have made some bad mistakes with tech - especially with the tech wreck - but I have also made some decent returns participating in the momentum market.
As long as the 401K target date fund flows are positive, price will go up. The moment those flows reverse, the whole thing collapses. Mike Green explains the Ponzi quite well. The "money" is trapped, so there is no way for those 401K owners to withdraw. They have "wealth" on paper only.
Adam, have you had a guest on that has analyzed the supply of publicly traded stocks and the demand ( money available ) to pay for $1 of earnings. The universe of publicly available companies has been declining over time, many particularly big public companies are have been repurchasing their stock - these two factors result in less supply. Meanwhile, particularly since 2020 the amount of money pumped into the economy has created more demand / $ chasing a smaller pool of equity - so stock prices & multiples have been going up. Is it possible that historic valuations aren’t the lens to view the current dynamics (all the $ pumped in since 2020) . With the historic money pump, Have we had a historic change in valuations?
@@JRRob3wn Exactly. Hasn't quite dawned on him yet that he could be fundamentally wrong about the markets. You might want to check out Raoul Pal and his everything code for another view. Also check out Brent Johnson and his theories. He has made a number of major correct calls re Dollar and equities over the past 5 years. Was there a "great reset" of some kind in 2008? Look at the DXY since 2008. If that's not a bullish trend I don't know what is. Could it really be the global liquidity runs the equity markets and not what this guest suggests?
Awesome Adam, ive never seen hussman in an interview, been reading his website since 2016. Hoping i can find some actionables from this smart but Permabear.
Everyone times the market to some extent, divided into two main groups: One group buys when funds become available and sells when funds are needed. The other group uses more sophisticated methods.
With every risk on, there is a corresponding risk off in the open exchanges. You could argue that one side or the other is engaging in risk arbitrage. Option sellers are probably the epitome of this, selling share price insurance as option premium.
Morningstar rating: 1 star Expense ratio: 1.2%!!! Performance: -40% in the last ten years! Underperformed the index by 4x!! Holds 40% short term treasuries!!! I wish somebody would pay me a 1.2% fee to hold short term treasuries for them!
he should just buy SPY when his model is pro market and just go to cash when model is negative market It looked like he would be killing the S&P index shown in one of the first charts
I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Natalie Rose Strayer.
I'm surprised that you just mentioned Natalie Strayer here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
Natalie Strayer has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
Charts are showing Nvidia about to go higher again, the question being whether it breaks the previous high. We have gold and silver charts looking mouth-watering for a rise within the coming 1-2 months, THEN we may have a larger pull-back pre-election and the September bears coming in, with a gold and silver pullback again. After that point, we see what happens in the macro medium term, but the short term will see plenty of volatility to make money (and sell positions too of course). I don't see an everything crash this calendar year, but certainly some harsh corrections. This is not a market for the average bear (no pun intended). You need rationality, a strong stomach, and above all to work with what the charts are telling you, not what is going to happen at some point soon (but soon is a relative concept). Are we in for uncertain global events coming up? YES. We have the blackout, we have a lot of money deployed to tech underway, a bounce in gold and silver to come this summer, and a summer high to come. After that is anyone's guess.
Cannot wait for everyone to go short or put on hedges after watching this interview, it will serve as fuel for a squeeze higher thru the summer. More vol will be supplied to meet all demands.
Great interview 👍👍👍The remark of Dr. Hussman regarding inflation not going down during the first 12 monts of a recession is interesting !! Is that 12 months from the date that is set by the NBER or from the date that the NBER reports that date of the recession ? When they report the date, more than 12 months can have passed so that makes quite the difference. Have just subscribed to the newsletter and am interested in the updates !! 🙏
Hussman + New Harbor= great listening In terms of Hussman’s continual reference to psychology and sentiment, I would say reflect specifically on the volatility of these times. Wars, open borders, high cost of living, controversial elections; these times contain the elements where sentiment & psychology could turn on a dime. The potential for quickly changing sentiment negatively impacting markets is high.
Stocks haven't reflected their actual value since Reagan took office some forty five years ago. It's a pure speculative Bingo parlor where perception rules, not ROI or dividends or anything that would resemble what stocks as a valid financial instrument were back in the day. So, of course, they could plummet 70% or more because there is no resemblance between price and their actual intrinsic value. For instance, a stock would never sell below what it's ROI and dividends produce discounted by the current interest rates unless rates were expected to rise thus devaluing the expected returns.
Really appreciate John- one major question I’ve always wanted to ask is can he adjust his charts and research to reflect 1980’s or 1990’s inflation method calculations and what would be the impact? I suspect his research is heavily reliant on current gov inflation reporting.
People in the comments seem to miss what John is saying. John's point is that--based on current valuations--the expected return for the US market generally is about half of what it has been historically. Things could be different this time: market participants might be OK with a 5% return instead of a 10% return going forward, in which case stocks could remain at these high levels for quite some time. But if investor psychology changes at any point and market participants start demanding the forward returns they demanded in the past, there is a long way for stocks to drop. Thus his point is not that stocks will fall: it's that there's far more risk at these levels than there is potential reward.
What happens to the 30Y Treasury price if Stocks prices crash and/or interest rates get slashed and/or we resume QE? I keep asking the question and get very little response. Surely the 30Y, north of 4% interest, is bargain at the moment. Please, somebody, anybody, correct me on this.
Run a chart with the s and p 500 and long bonds. You’ll see long bond ETF’s like tlt surge as s and p crashes but they also correct soon after stocks crash so you wouldn’t want to blindly stay with long term long bonds to get the most gains.
@@Michaeldotcom33 Cheers I appreciate your response. I look at the 30Y that have basically halved in price since 2021 while stocks have gained new all time highs. Buy low, sell high and while you wait, get 4.4%. There is a chance that we get a sovereign debt loss in confidence but that requires the FED, and Central Banks in general, losing control. Gold is not the answer because in a stock sell off, gold also tends to fall in the short term as speculators cover themselves.
You're asking three different questions, which may be why you're not getting an answer. And for the answer to the stock price question, it depends on which of several scenarios trigger the rout. Furthermore, if the underlying cause for market gyrations is stagflation and not a surge in liquidity, the investment landscape's equilibrium will be entirely different. Certain market conditions make stocks and bonds correlated, and certain other conditions make them inverse correlated. TL;DR - It depends.
@@JScottHamilton Treasury and Stock prices were typically negatively correlated which is why many believed it was good to hold both in a balanced portfolio to reduce risk. Then we had the QE period and they became highly correlated - basically everything went up in price during this period so it was hard to loss money. The correlated broke in 2021 when Treasuries lost more than 50% of their value. If they become negatively correlated again then you stand to gain considerably by holding Treasuries in a stock market crash as money flows from Stocks into Treasuries.
"Acceptable level of Regret", to me it's about setting a target and trying to hit that target. You aren't trying to chase the highest highs and avoid the lowest lows. Set a target and work towards that, if you have a higher risk appetite then maybe you have a 10-12% taget. I just don't like new terms, stay consistent, but definitely an interesting way to think of it. (great channel - and discussion)
🗣️”Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria”. Sir John Templeton . This looks, feels and smells of Euphoria to me. This is where bull markets go to die. It is not where they are born.
It's interesting that Hussman is ringing the bell NOW, having held off from making that prognostication for many years. I like his analysis, in general, whether it turns out to be "right" or "wrong." He's 1) rational and 2) empirical (fact-based). The Canadians Danielle Park and David Rosenberg seem to have a similar take and, again, they are smart, empirical, and rational. In the U.S.: Grantham (and others). "Fed eased all the way through the 2008-9." And something makes me think that we're going to see exactly the same pattern this time around.
@@JRRob3wn True! But I’m not saying “Therefore let him invest your money”!! I’m distinguishing between the guy’s “secular” approach to market history, on one hand, and his ability to intelligently invest/speculate on the other!!
@@TomHawk640 It’s worth keeping in mind that due to his fund’s embarrassing performance over multiple decades, he is likely hemorrhaging investors. Like nearly every other guest on this show (Lance et al) he’s coming on this show to try to drum up business. He knows what this audience’s biases are and he’s 100% willing to play into them in order to gain clients. Frankly, I’m at the point where I don’t trust a word that is coming out of any active advisors mouth. Their method of investing on behalf of middle class clients has been proven to be a loser in so many overwhelming ways, that one must assume anyone left in that space is a dishonest charlatan. Best case scenario with Hussman is that he’s so in love with his narrative that he will ride your retirement savings down into the abyss just so he’s not proven wrong.
@@JRRob3wnI agree, in general, with your take. The entire market landscape seems to have changed drastically since 2008-9, both in its character and in its complexity. Hussman’s not alone in his failure to navigate these uncharted waters (notwithstanding his market theory, which I still find interesting and in some respects more plausible than other theories).
Great show and guest. Only about 54 minutes in and the comment regarding 40 years of declining interest rates (though in a different context to my thinking) rings true. I cannot see how non-financial companies do well in an increasing rate environment. Not sure exactly what to do as I am now 50 years old. Even though I don't know exactly what to do, I am still doing what I believe I ought to do.
"Valuations are very expensive in historical terms". So is the denominator (M2). You need normalize by M2 if you are to compare valuations across time. I am not sure stock valuations are that high.
When stock prices rise so high that net earnings could not pay back an investment within decades (rephrasing of Scott McNealy from Sun Microsystems), then they are too high. The money supply is a red herring, it just means that currency may try to find a home no matter the cost or risk. Reversion to the mean is a real thing, albeit it operates on its own time frame.
@@JScottHamilton the question is "reversion to WHICH mean"? You see, a mean makes sense if the denominator remains constant. However, if the denominator stretches, so does the mean. 13 P/E used to be the norm, but now it is 21. In the same way that an average mortgage used to be 10 years and now it is 30. All because the denominator has stretched out. I dont doubt that there might be a reversion to A mean, but I am skeptical that it will be the OLD mean we were used to.
@@HectorYague A ratio doesn't require a constant denominator, nor is a mean constant over time. I see too many investors who arbitrarily choose a mean spanning less than a decade, where Hussman appears to be operating on a multi-decade timeline. For example many people will chose an arbitrary span for the S&P and say the average rate of return is somewhere between 7% and 9% (with reinvested dividends sometimes being the swing factor). If we go through a severe market correction, the mean rate of return I have heard for the following 10 years is between negative 5% and zero (different sources). Does that mean somebody should expect a reversion to zero returns in the 2030s, 2040s, or 2050s should such an event occur? No! When you have a few years of front loading 10 years worth of earnings, as in the case of a market bubble, it may take a multigenerational time slice to calculate a reasonable mean to revert to over a few decades. The Japanese are the poster children for that case study.
This man is a Saint❤ Thank you for your honesty. Ive been getting the worst Fomo the last few months. Being diversified means playing both red & black.
Do your own analysis, invest in what you know, and be patient for long term results. Amazon was dead money for its first decade as a public company. And even then really only got profitable when it leased its cloud servers through AWS that were originally developed for internal consumption. My grandfather was a zoologist and anatomy professor, yet he left an estate that will take two generations to drain. As a grade schooler he showed me a prospectus for a utility company and said he invested in their preferred stock. It took me a few years to fully understand what he was saying, and a lifetime to emulate his example.
The next leg up with inflation would be the worst leg of all. Lets hope they don't go that route. We think prices are high now.... no way if they do that.. we get stagflation like we have never seen.
Any thoughts on how algorithmic trading may impact market valuations and how past trends/considerations may be distorted? I guess I’m wondering if past performance may really not be indicative of future returns. My inclination is that bots care about getting money and not properly evaluating intrinsic value.
Historically bots have been fine in trading within one or two standard deviations, then blow chunks on long tail events. It was called program trading and portfolio insurance back in the 1990s, and resulted in big fails.
IF YOU WANT TO SEE JOHN'S CHARTS in greater detail, read John's latest Market Commentary here www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc240623/
Thanks!
Why is there not even one single analyst talking about the risk that has been created by the Fed by keeping 300 year low interest rates for the past 15 years? (This has never been done before.) Not ONE single analyst has so much as even raised this issue?
Sorry, Adam, the chart I looked at is HSGFX. That's someone's life-savings he shamelessly loses, year in year out, by being unaccountably crap at his job.
@@boombustinvest Sounds like you have a podcast in you
The only chart I needed to see was that of his fund…going straight down for decades.
I believe getting hold of John Husman was a major achievement for your program and a really great service to your subscriber and followers.
Thank you Adam for your hard and excellent work !!
Thank you!
John Hussman remains a voice of sanity in my opinion. Thank you Adam for bringing him in!
Voice of sanity yet is calling for the market to go down 50-70%?
@@user-fw2lk3sd3e Yes, you've grasped the obvious adroitly.
Lol his fund has been a tragedy! What gives?
Beneath the analysis are a few gems I hadn't heard before. Manage your capacity for regret. Prepare for being wrong and for being correct: you will experience both. Plan informed decisions ahead of time amap. Most of all, avoid reacting to the short term potent emotions of greed and fear which can override all of the above.
Apparently a really great guy, but lousy market predictor. This guy has predicted 12 of the last 2 bear markets lol. Check his funds, one of his main growth funds actually lost money over like a 10 year period that was one of the largest bull markets in history. If you completely miss one of the greatest bull markets in history, you are one of the very worst lol. Here was article in the middle of it..."learning-from-a-lagging-mutual-fund-1426259640" from WSJ.
Adam, you should try to conceal your excitement when interviewing bears 😂
John is a class act, I've followed him for years, his cautious stance will be proven right, I think we are making a generational top here
Hussman must be one of the most thoughtful, level headed people in the industry. Thanks for having him on!
he's a broken clock that is eventually right. That is his long term results in the market.
Hussman is the greatest. How nice to have him on. I love his newsletter and analysis and he is completely correct that the absurd valuations must normalize. It’s going to be a rough road ahead.
Rhetorical question: What is the future/new "normal"?
@@variousstuff6469 The reason Mr. Hussman takes time to speak about past performance is that his long term record in Strategic Return is abysmal. Look at the 10 or 15 yr return stream..
Or maybe there is a new way of determining the P in PE ratios like Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel have suggested.
His fund is down over 50% in 15 years. The Vanguard 500 Index fund is up over 10x . Price is the final arbiter of truth in the markets.
Folks have been sharing Hussman comments with me for decades. But when I look at his fund performance I see abysmal results. Am I missing something? I agree with John's thesis, but I just wonder why his analysis can't result in market outperformance over multiple market cycles.
Ned Davis (NDR) Being right or making money.
Hussman sounds like he knows what he's doing. But the reality can be seen in the development of his investment fund: HSGFX ------- what a disaster! DISASTER !!!!!
One of favorite Wall Street phrases is “paper losses”
The other is “paper profits”
Unrealized Gains is perhaps the worst, as it feeds the former giving one a false sense of wealth.
Bill Gates retired off his paper profits. Heirs also receive a fictional stepped up basis from inherited property. My point is, the truly wealthy have assets that may never actualize a gain, yet their assets work for them in ways that increase their wealth without much effort. It's the ephemeral paper gains of volatile assets [*cough* GME *cough*] that yield a false perception not of wealth, but of purchasing power.
20 trillion of QE in 2025 will assure no stock drops
In that case the value of the dollar will drop 70%.
I’m afraid the pig is in the fire.
🥩🥩🥩@@donjohnson6036
She's about to blow
💯 but the market always goes up. We may have a 1 or 2 or even 3 year downturn, but going long always wins. Maybe its different this time? Doubt it
In that case our purchasing power is cut by 50-70 percent and the gap between rich and poor would go to unbelievable margins and it might cause a revolt civil war and anarchy
Thanks John and Adam. Good to see and hear John 'in person', instead of just in printed commentary.
It’s great to see so many derisive comments about this guest. The music will be stopping sooner than I expected.
Cool. When did you get out of the market? How will you know when to get back in? This guests investment returns over the last two decades have been embarrassingly awful, just in case he didn’t mention it in the interview.
@@JRRob3wnTotally correct. But I have no reason to NOT believe his data and conclusions at the current time. I agree with his assessment that upside is quite limited and there is a very real chance outsized reversions may occur.
if there are derisive comments it could be because Wealthion and Stansberry and many others have been calling for a stock market crash for YEARS now. Maybe they got the narrative wrong. You might want to check out Raoul Pal and his everything code for another view. Also check out Brent Johnson and his theories. He has made a number of major correct calls re Dollar and equities over the past 5 years. Was there a "great reset" of some kind in 2008? Look at the DXY since 2008. If that's not a bullish trend I don't know what is. Could it really be the global liquidity runs the equity markets and not what this guest suggests?
My forecast. Dow $380 in 1929, 18 ounces of gold. Dow 2024, $38,000, 18 ounces of gold. Dow in the future, $380,000, 18 ounces of gold.
Dow $800 in 1980, 1 ounce of gold.
What was the Dow in ounces of gold in 1933?
@@IDNeon357 Three low points June 1932, 2.06 Feb 1933, 1.94 July 1934, 2.52.
Good as metric as any.
@@IDNeon357 Two ounces.
Thank you, Adam. I've followed Dr Hussman's commentary for some time, clearly grounded in agonizing detail, often beyond the reach of my left hemisphere. Started watching late, but hoping to hear how volcanic geopolitical events affect his outlook. A 50-70% asset price collapse seems almost rosy; 89% is not unthinkable.
His funds would probably be better if he just used SPY when his signals are bullish and Cash when they go negative. Rather than individual stocks and hedging
A lot of tech dropped 100-200% in 2022. 50-70 is conservative for overvalued companies
Of course, stocks COULD drop 50-70%. The relevant question is WILL they. The answer? Nobody knows. Nobody.
Most likely won't.
There are times past performance can be indicative of future results.
If you look at past markets those drops are often the case.
When you add in all the bubbles together and the economic dislocations and the potential black swans overhead if we get out with only a 50% loss we will be lucky.
We are at a multi generational place in history and I could be very bad.
@@danielturner9832 And likely they will continue to print $ longer
@@danielturner9832 Once again COULD. Market timing is a risky proposition. When do you get out? Where is the bottom? When to get back in? What if you get out, then you are wrong and the market never crashes?
@@JRRob3wn It always mystifies why investors should be looking for get in/get out points. All that does is multiply the risk of doing something dumb. Buy what you want and ride out the bumps you know will come. Stocks go up, then go down, then go up higher, then down and then even higher. That's why long term investors do what they do. There's nothing hard to understand about that. No genius is required.
Wow John Hussman is on! So great to see him as a guest Adam. Appreciate you both for making this happen.
Nobody knows, but it's interesting to hear different perspectives on the market.
Thank-you for the great interview. Not too often that I appreciate a one hour interview that lasts over an hour and a half!
Phenomenal interview and interviewer, so helpful,thank you !
Adam, good work thank you for this!
“I’m not calling a top, I’m not, but we think this market looks a lot like 2000 and 2007.” Hmm, sounds like he’s calling a top.
Not exactly. All he's saying is that previous tops had similar conditions. There's a difference.
The market may continue to go up, if government keeps adding so much liquidity to the system. But we are in a bubble that will, at some point, have large losses. Go back and look at the GFC S&P topped at 1565 then fell to 676. Not a pleasant outcome, but we could see that again. What he is saying is: Look at the risk in your investments. How much might you lose? How much are you willing to lose. How do you minimize the loss?
love hussmans work; and this channel really does attract alot of talent. great work adam !
Ever checked into how Hussman’s fund has performed?
My God. 50 to 70% decline? The 2030s will be an interesting decade for sure. Thank you John Hussman.
SIMPLE ...
50-year mortgages; Stocks splitting; more meds for all.
Fixes everything.
Not sure an additional 20 years is enough. Make it a 75 year mortgage.
That’s the plan Stan!!!!🎉
How about mortgage forgiveness. Its seems to work for student loans.
@@dr.johnnyfever9194 😆
This is the final boss of kicking the can down the road😂😂
Permanently elevated and continuously elevated PE/CAPE ratios brought on by ever-increasing debasement. As a young person wanting a generational buying opportunity, I wish he were right but I don’t think central banks will ever permit such a crash/devaluation to occur. The US government alone needs those tax receipts to mitigate the already insane debt levels thus its a matter of national security to keep assets permanently elevated. That and the wealth effect is the only keeping it consumption if only being done by the overwhelming minority.
TL;DR - feels like animal spirits are tied to QE and the anticipation if only by viewing where rates are versus Fed Funds which would imply QE will come and even if we have a recession, ever-larger QE will occur to support assets and the systems that are dependent upon elevated asset values namely government “funding” and consumption.
Adam - I believe you're a fan as I am of Mike Maloney and something Mike said occurs to me as I look at Dr. Hussman's chart at 1:28:00. Mike said in the short-term the stock market is a voting machine, but in the long-term the stock market is a weighing machine. In other words, the purpose of markets is providing a value finding function. That means a correctly functioning stock market is doing its job finding the appropriate value for stocks given sufficient time. That makes Dr. Hussman's chart look like a beautiful representation of the stock market finding value over time, a long time. Notice how the solid dark blue line seems to try to come back to the solid green line, and the further away it strays the further it must correct to the other side as it tries to account for the "imbalance". That is very noticeable where the chart starts in 1929, for example. Afterward, the dark blue line appears to (slightly) peak above or dip below the dark green line in almost perfectly predictable fashion until 2007. In 2007 the pattern would suggest we should have dipped below the green line again (significantly) for around 10 years or so. That didn't happen. Continuing the scale analogy it looks distinctly like someone put their thumb on the scale... We know there is a bad consequence to doing that, because it throws things off, giving false readings. That reminds me of the point in the talk were you and Dr. Hussman talk about the physics of a universe unexpectedly changing.
Adam and this bear den ought to LOVE this guest😀 Unfortunately John has consistently underestimated the impact of money supply growth in fueling the massive bubble over the last decade. He WILL be proven correct.... just not yet...
Wow! What a session. Feels like I am attending the Econometrics Modeling class 29 yrs back. Only time will say which way the market will go, but I really enjoyed the session.
If you really want to enjoy a laugh, look at the charts of Hussman’s fund performance over the last 20 years!🤡
These guys should go in more detail when they say stocks will crash 50-70% because small and mid caps are still down 50-90%. So are just the big caps crashing? Small cap coming up? Equaling out? Or are small and mid caps going to 1$? I’m pretty sure mag 7 and big caps may come down but I don’t see small caps coming down nor do I see large caps coming down 50-70% but if they do that sounds like a buy the dip 🤔
It's just not that simple. Looking at the example of the Dot Com crash, respectable companies like Cisco and Lucent became dead money, high flyers like JDS Uniphase and Global Crossing collapsed, and stoic companies like Apple and Amazon regrouped, pivoted, and came out swinging towards the end of the 2000s. Macro analysis can predict none of this, because the success or failure of any one company is too granular to be decided by macro trends.
Individual fundamental analysis will be needed to pick winners or losers. For those who don't recall the product called Value Line Investment Survey, they probably haven't developed the skill to do deep dives into companies prospects. But even Value Line came up with a score for the strength of a company that was a reasonably good indicator of whether a company could survive through multiple business cycles.
Big caps like Meta went down 75%. Why shouldnt that happen again? We are in the same situation as end of 2021 in terms of valuation, even worse in some respects.
@@wheatandtares9764 nah we in the bull market big caps will pull back because they are way over valued then money will go in small and mid caps so the market evens out then it all will continue probably for 3-5 years before something big happens
Adam, you have done more to educate the world about money and the economy than our global education systems ever did
Thank you for having John on as a guest, brilliant brilliant discussion
Great guest! Positivity was through the roof. I felt uplifted towards the end of this intetview. This man is humble & I think he is in touch with mortality. What really does matter? 10% 20% 1000% returns doesnt come close to the present. What is your time worrh?
So happy to see John Hussman on Thoughtful Money! Great show.
Great for comedy purposes!🤡
@1:18:40 -- Regarding John's observation that we've seen lots of stimulus, but little growth in productivity ...
... public debt targeted at consumption practically never increases productivity; the only thing it 'stimulates' in the long run is inflation.
Another brilliant guest that Adam brought to his channel..! Liked this informative conversation 👍
An amazing man and an amazing interview ! Thanks!
Awesome guest, great technical analysis. Bring him back ASAP.
No one knows if bear market will happen, but valuations are extereme, leading economic indicators are flashing red, and Buffet is piling cash.
A bear market will happen, 100% No ifs. The question is, how soon?
@@bbdj2779 remember probability not certainty.
@@bbdj2779 right. this is like going to your doctor and she says "You are going to die". The real question is when
Buffet could have made lots more money employing more cash in this melt up.
@@mwilliamson4198 Correct. There is no “if” in that. Amusing how many here have convinced themselves that there is no chance of a market reversal. One of the signs of a top.
Sadly all the 401k people and pensions funds are stuck and unable to navigate this. I'm in cash and collecting interest and, yes, saving and stacking cash like a fiend. Been living this way for several years.
There is a reason patience is a virtue and greed is a sin. Being a debt slave / serf is no way to go through life, either but people want new, shiny over what they can really afford if they were honest.
And those 401k / IRA folks are part of the problem. They are in for a rude awakening.
IRAs are flexible, I changed mine to bond ETF.
I changed my 401K to Bonds. It’s still not risk free but I feel a hell of lot safer with 100% bonds right now than I do with 100% equities which is what I was doing. Moved over the minute S&P hit 5400 and started seeing all of the negative sentiment lately. Seems like a good call.
Sure but having too much in cash means you miss the melt up. That said I have made some bad mistakes with tech - especially with the tech wreck - but I have also made some decent returns participating in the momentum market.
Great guest!
Thank you!
Thanks Adam
Thanks Adam for bringing John back.
As long as the 401K target date fund flows are positive, price will go up. The moment those flows reverse, the whole thing collapses. Mike Green explains the Ponzi quite well. The "money" is trapped, so there is no way for those 401K owners to withdraw. They have "wealth" on paper only.
Adam, have you had a guest on that has analyzed the supply of publicly traded stocks and the demand ( money available ) to pay for $1 of earnings. The universe of publicly available companies has been declining over time, many particularly big public companies are have been repurchasing their stock - these two factors result in less supply. Meanwhile, particularly since 2020 the amount of money pumped into the economy has created more demand / $ chasing a smaller pool of equity - so
stock prices & multiples have been going up. Is it possible that historic valuations aren’t the lens to view the current dynamics (all the $ pumped in since 2020) . With the historic money pump, Have we had a historic change in valuations?
John is a great guy but he has been wrong for a VERY long time...
So he’s the average Adam Taggert interviewee?
@@JRRob3wn Exactly. Hasn't quite dawned on him yet that he could be fundamentally wrong about the markets. You might want to check out Raoul Pal and his everything code for another view. Also check out Brent Johnson and his theories. He has made a number of major correct calls re Dollar and equities over the past 5 years. Was there a "great reset" of some kind in 2008? Look at the DXY since 2008. If that's not a bullish trend I don't know what is. Could it really be the global liquidity runs the equity markets and not what this guest suggests?
People who have followed John for longtime have lost lot of money or opportunities 😂
The market is far closer to the top than bottom! Buy gold and wait for sanity to return! 😮
I don't think the dollar is ever going to gain purchasing power in terms of assets for long. Which is what a market crash implies.
An excellent speaker - thank you.
The Man, The Myth, The Legend!!!! John Hussman!!!!!! Thank you for this treat Adam. Always keep it real sensei Hussman. We choose to be fools now. 😉
I’ve been reading The Mandibles.. great book. It would be cool to see you interview the author.
There is NO logical reason the stock market rising like it is now. I am OUT!
Great interview. So much to think about I'm going to have to watch this twice.
Give his fund a looksie, very interesting performance over the last 10+ years.
Obviously high expectations for this interview but you two knocked it out of the park - fantastic session! Thank you both.
Hey Adam, Is it possible to put up time stamps please. Brilliant interviews
Thanks!
Thank you very much!!
Awesome Adam, ive never seen hussman in an interview, been reading his website since 2016. Hoping i can find some actionables from this smart but Permabear.
Awesome talk. Really!
Everyone times the market to some extent, divided into two main groups: One group buys when funds become available and sells when funds are needed. The other group uses more sophisticated methods.
With every risk on, there is a corresponding risk off in the open exchanges. You could argue that one side or the other is engaging in risk arbitrage. Option sellers are probably the epitome of this, selling share price insurance as option premium.
HSGFX (his fund) - OUCH!!!
Awful!
It looks like one half of the Grand Canyon. What a joke!
This fund is a dead dog in the pond!
Morningstar rating: 1 star
Expense ratio: 1.2%!!!
Performance: -40% in the last ten years!
Underperformed the index by 4x!!
Holds 40% short term treasuries!!!
I wish somebody would pay me a 1.2% fee to hold short term treasuries for them!
he should just buy SPY when his model is pro market and just go to cash when model is negative market It looked like he would be killing the S&P index shown in one of the first charts
Fantastic show! Love the humble presentation of data analysis by all 👌 👏
I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Natalie Rose Strayer.
I'm surprised that you just mentioned Natalie Strayer here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
The very first time we tried, we invested $2000 and after a week, we received $9500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
Natalie Strayer has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
After I raised up to 125k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states also paid for my son's surgery
Glory to God shalom.
Charts are showing Nvidia about to go higher again, the question being whether it breaks the previous high. We have gold and silver charts looking mouth-watering for a rise within the coming 1-2 months, THEN we may have a larger pull-back pre-election and the September bears coming in, with a gold and silver pullback again. After that point, we see what happens in the macro medium term, but the short term will see plenty of volatility to make money (and sell positions too of course). I don't see an everything crash this calendar year, but certainly some harsh corrections. This is not a market for the average bear (no pun intended). You need rationality, a strong stomach, and above all to work with what the charts are telling you, not what is going to happen at some point soon (but soon is a relative concept). Are we in for uncertain global events coming up? YES. We have the blackout, we have a lot of money deployed to tech underway, a bounce in gold and silver to come this summer, and a summer high to come. After that is anyone's guess.
With most money being digital, it doesn’t even have to be printed..!
John is doing a great job on linking economics, finance and the stock market
Excellent
Another market crash video. I’m still waiting for the last 300 interviews to happen.
It’s amazing people still watch this trash.
You’ve been warned. And warned. And warned. 😂
Lol
Cannot wait for everyone to go short or put on hedges after watching this interview, it will serve as fuel for a squeeze higher thru the summer. More vol will be supplied to meet all demands.
Have John on again and again.
I've only seen this guy's charts shown by people who get everything wrong. A broken clock waiting endless days to be right again.
Amazing video to all involved!
John Hussman will be right. Although irrational exuberance isn’t there yet. This is pre game to the party.
Great interview 👍👍👍The remark of Dr. Hussman regarding inflation not going down during the first 12 monts of a recession is interesting !! Is that 12 months from the date that is set by the NBER or from the date that the NBER reports that date of the recession ? When they report the date, more than 12 months can have passed so that makes quite the difference. Have just subscribed to the newsletter and am interested in the updates !! 🙏
Adam, Best interview so far. John is so articulate 👍🏽
Hussman + New Harbor= great listening
In terms of Hussman’s continual reference to psychology and sentiment, I would say reflect specifically on the volatility of these times. Wars, open borders, high cost of living, controversial elections; these times contain the elements where sentiment & psychology could turn on a dime. The potential for quickly changing sentiment negatively impacting markets is high.
New Harbor predicted the S&P would fall to 1500 in 2023. 🤡
Stocks haven't reflected their actual value since Reagan took office some forty five years ago.
It's a pure speculative Bingo parlor where perception rules, not ROI or dividends or anything that would resemble what stocks as a valid financial instrument were back in the day.
So, of course, they could plummet 70% or more because there is no resemblance between price and their actual intrinsic value. For instance, a stock would never sell below what it's ROI and dividends produce discounted by the current interest rates unless rates were expected to rise thus devaluing the expected returns.
Really appreciate John- one major question I’ve always wanted to ask is can he adjust his charts and research to reflect 1980’s or 1990’s inflation method calculations and what would be the impact? I suspect his research is heavily reliant on current gov inflation reporting.
Probably the most thoughtful bearish analysis I’ve heard yet.
Adam "lag effect" Taggart..another great interview. Thanks
FOMOL is a new term. Fear of missing out on losses. Describes most bears at this point
People in the comments seem to miss what John is saying. John's point is that--based on current valuations--the expected return for the US market generally is about half of what it has been historically. Things could be different this time: market participants might be OK with a 5% return instead of a 10% return going forward, in which case stocks could remain at these high levels for quite some time. But if investor psychology changes at any point and market participants start demanding the forward returns they demanded in the past, there is a long way for stocks to drop. Thus his point is not that stocks will fall: it's that there's far more risk at these levels than there is potential reward.
What happens to the 30Y Treasury price if Stocks prices crash and/or interest rates get slashed and/or we resume QE? I keep asking the question and get very little response. Surely the 30Y, north of 4% interest, is bargain at the moment. Please, somebody, anybody, correct me on this.
Run a chart with the s and p 500 and long bonds. You’ll see long bond ETF’s like tlt surge as s and p crashes but they also correct soon after stocks crash so you wouldn’t want to blindly stay with long term long bonds to get the most gains.
@@Michaeldotcom33 Cheers I appreciate your response. I look at the 30Y that have basically halved in price since 2021 while stocks have gained new all time highs. Buy low, sell high and while you wait, get 4.4%. There is a chance that we get a sovereign debt loss in confidence but that requires the FED, and Central Banks in general, losing control. Gold is not the answer because in a stock sell off, gold also tends to fall in the short term as speculators cover themselves.
You're asking three different questions, which may be why you're not getting an answer. And for the answer to the stock price question, it depends on which of several scenarios trigger the rout. Furthermore, if the underlying cause for market gyrations is stagflation and not a surge in liquidity, the investment landscape's equilibrium will be entirely different. Certain market conditions make stocks and bonds correlated, and certain other conditions make them inverse correlated. TL;DR - It depends.
@@EduardoMartinez-ys6fbI agree about gold. It will likely go down short term before going up again.
@@JScottHamilton Treasury and Stock prices were typically negatively correlated which is why many believed it was good to hold both in a balanced portfolio to reduce risk. Then we had the QE period and they became highly correlated - basically everything went up in price during this period so it was hard to loss money. The correlated broke in 2021 when Treasuries lost more than 50% of their value. If they become negatively correlated again then you stand to gain considerably by holding Treasuries in a stock market crash as money flows from Stocks into Treasuries.
"Acceptable level of Regret", to me it's about setting a target and trying to hit that target. You aren't trying to chase the highest highs and avoid the lowest lows. Set a target and work towards that, if you have a higher risk appetite then maybe you have a 10-12% taget. I just don't like new terms, stay consistent, but definitely an interesting way to think of it. (great channel - and discussion)
🗣️”Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria”. Sir John Templeton . This looks, feels and smells of Euphoria to me. This is where bull markets go to die. It is not where they are born.
That's an easy question. Yes,the can and have in the past crash this hard. Sometimes even harder.
Im going to rely on adams notes on this one.
John has destroyed a lot of capital, but I like him.
It's interesting that Hussman is ringing the bell NOW, having held off from making that prognostication for many years. I like his analysis, in general, whether it turns out to be "right" or "wrong." He's 1) rational and 2) empirical (fact-based). The Canadians Danielle Park and David Rosenberg seem to have a similar take and, again, they are smart, empirical, and rational. In the U.S.: Grantham (and others). "Fed eased all the way through the 2008-9." And something makes me think that we're going to see exactly the same pattern this time around.
This guy has rationally lost his investors 40% of their portfolio over the last 10 years and underperformed the index by a multiple of 4.
But the fed will print
@@JRRob3wn True! But I’m not saying “Therefore let him invest your money”!! I’m distinguishing between the guy’s “secular” approach to market history, on one hand, and his ability to intelligently invest/speculate on the other!!
@@TomHawk640 It’s worth keeping in mind that due to his fund’s embarrassing performance over multiple decades, he is likely hemorrhaging investors. Like nearly every other guest on this show (Lance et al) he’s coming on this show to try to drum up business. He knows what this audience’s biases are and he’s 100% willing to play into them in order to gain clients. Frankly, I’m at the point where I don’t trust a word that is coming out of any active advisors mouth. Their method of investing on behalf of middle class clients has been proven to be a loser in so many overwhelming ways, that one must assume anyone left in that space is a dishonest charlatan. Best case scenario with Hussman is that he’s so in love with his narrative that he will ride your retirement savings down into the abyss just so he’s not proven wrong.
@@JRRob3wnI agree, in general, with your take. The entire market landscape seems to have changed drastically since 2008-9, both in its character and in its complexity. Hussman’s not alone in his failure to navigate these uncharted waters (notwithstanding his market theory, which I still find interesting and in some respects more plausible than other theories).
Forgot to add, push Adam’s channel to 100k 🎉🎉🎉
Hell yeah.
Great show and guest. Only about 54 minutes in and the comment regarding 40 years of declining interest rates (though in a different context to my thinking) rings true. I cannot see how non-financial companies do well in an increasing rate environment.
Not sure exactly what to do as I am now 50 years old. Even though I don't know exactly what to do, I am still doing what I believe I ought to do.
Follow the $ inflow of funds to short term T-Bills and where Buffett is keeping his dollars is a clear sign...
"Valuations are very expensive in historical terms". So is the denominator (M2). You need normalize by M2 if you are to compare valuations across time. I am not sure stock valuations are that high.
When stock prices rise so high that net earnings could not pay back an investment within decades (rephrasing of Scott McNealy from Sun Microsystems), then they are too high. The money supply is a red herring, it just means that currency may try to find a home no matter the cost or risk. Reversion to the mean is a real thing, albeit it operates on its own time frame.
@@JScottHamilton the question is "reversion to WHICH mean"? You see, a mean makes sense if the denominator remains constant. However, if the denominator stretches, so does the mean. 13 P/E used to be the norm, but now it is 21. In the same way that an average mortgage used to be 10 years and now it is 30. All because the denominator has stretched out. I dont doubt that there might be a reversion to A mean, but I am skeptical that it will be the OLD mean we were used to.
@@HectorYague A ratio doesn't require a constant denominator, nor is a mean constant over time. I see too many investors who arbitrarily choose a mean spanning less than a decade, where Hussman appears to be operating on a multi-decade timeline.
For example many people will chose an arbitrary span for the S&P and say the average rate of return is somewhere between 7% and 9% (with reinvested dividends sometimes being the swing factor). If we go through a severe market correction, the mean rate of return I have heard for the following 10 years is between negative 5% and zero (different sources).
Does that mean somebody should expect a reversion to zero returns in the 2030s, 2040s, or 2050s should such an event occur? No! When you have a few years of front loading 10 years worth of earnings, as in the case of a market bubble, it may take a multigenerational time slice to calculate a reasonable mean to revert to over a few decades. The Japanese are the poster children for that case study.
This man is a Saint❤ Thank you for your honesty. Ive been getting the worst Fomo the last few months. Being diversified means playing both red & black.
Yes this absolutely correct the value of debt and credit is based on confidence.
What is the best way to avoid mediocrity in investing?
Do your own analysis, invest in what you know, and be patient for long term results. Amazon was dead money for its first decade as a public company. And even then really only got profitable when it leased its cloud servers through AWS that were originally developed for internal consumption.
My grandfather was a zoologist and anatomy professor, yet he left an estate that will take two generations to drain. As a grade schooler he showed me a prospectus for a utility company and said he invested in their preferred stock. It took me a few years to fully understand what he was saying, and a lifetime to emulate his example.
Let's keep the ball rolling 💪.
Let's do $999 trillion QE before December 31, 2024. QE TO INFINITI 🎉 LOAF OF BREAD 🍞 $100 🥳
FED will prevent this by printing ....untill inflation is so high ...
One word that disproved that thesis: Japan.
@@EduardoMartinez-ys6fbhow? Thanks
The next leg up with inflation would be the worst leg of all. Lets hope they don't go that route. We think prices are high now.... no way if they do that.. we get stagflation like we have never seen.
With Hussman, its like light the fuse, step back, and let him go...
I am cautious with calling a top, but nasdaq was down almost 280 points today from intraday top in volume.
Any thoughts on how algorithmic trading may impact market valuations and how past trends/considerations may be distorted? I guess I’m wondering if past performance may really not be indicative of future returns. My inclination is that bots care about getting money and not properly evaluating intrinsic value.
Historically bots have been fine in trading within one or two standard deviations, then blow chunks on long tail events. It was called program trading and portfolio insurance back in the 1990s, and resulted in big fails.
Adam please get Ed Yardeni on your show to counter the bears !