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I’m still a buy and hold guy. I see zero reason to deviate.

He said there would be a correction in q2 of 2024. Total guess

Officially reported data on MULTIPLE fronts lags real-time, anecdotal, and forward-looking data in a way never seen before. I think multiple bloodbaths are looming as we roll into 2025. Conditions seem to be setting up for a cascade of Wile E. Coyote moments: - HORRIBLE housing data, as Melody Wright, Reventure and other RE analysts have been reporting for months. The market is utterly frozen, but desperation is building under the surface due to rocketing home insurance costs and similar factors. - ATROCIOUS job market, the worst since the GFC 16 years ago. I've watched loads of anecdotal videos posted by Gen Zs and older generations testifying how NO ONE is hiring, and how deeply broken and inhumane the recruitment and interview process is. Yet official unemployment rate and monthly job numbers still look fine. Something doesn't add up here. - Mainstream economists and some macro experts report the U.S. economy is "fine" - it's not in recession, but slowing slightly in a "soft landing" kind of way. But more traditionally "bearish" experts (such as David Rosenberg, Danielle diMartino Booth, Michael Pento, Stephanie Pomboy, and many others) think recession has started already or is about to. Just as important, some less interviewed but very astute observers have reached the same conclusion while presenting different insights, such as your guest Henrik Zeberg and the wonderful Juliette Declercq (recently interviewed by Maggie Lake). When these dominoes start falling in quick succession, "look out below" on the stock market! 2025 will be a VERY interesting year.

What about the trillions in money market waiting to come in? Can FOMO create more inflows like the one we saw in NOV

Love the guys from New Harbor. Their comments are always insightful, prudent and trustworthy for challenging times.

No one knows - it's all speculation - A.I. is the Big Bang and whooping knows ? Wouldn't bet against it but have some decent cash liquid / good luck - avhroken clock Is always right twice a day _

Obviously , at some point the market is going to correct significantly. That's nothing new. Like Harry dent has been saying there is a great crash ahead. But if you would have taken his advice you would have missed out on huge gains. Question is when?

Just by the intro I had to come down and read if this was worth it. Thanks folks, it is not it seems, moving on.

I like Felix Zulauf and am in agreement with most of his outlook/predictions. I read his report that is available to Adam's premium Substack subscribers. Again while I agree with most of his geopolitical observations, I have a few questions. First I would like to know what Felix's definition of the "Deep State", as it pertains to the United States is. He says that Biden's authorization for Ukraine to use US missiles against Russia is the Deep State. Whether you agree with the policy or not, the President authorizing something would seem like the antithesis of the Deep State. It is very open. When I see Trump use the term Deep State, I see him angry with civil and military servants following established law instead of following his wishes. If a civil/military servant does not follow a presidential directive because it is against the law, the president has the opportunity to either replace this servant or take them to court. You can always find someone who will interpret the law to your desire but they risk becoming a felon just like many of Trumps previous associates. My second comment is that Zulauf states that Mercantilism no longer works in Trump's world. However Mercantilism is what Michael Every wants Trump to do. So either Zulauf has a different definition of mercantilism than Every or perhaps Zulauf means that Mercantilism won't work for Germany and others that do not have the means to back it up (militarily, politically, and economically).

There is no way nowadays to use macro data to make any market predictions..

It seems intellectually dishonest to not address the high danger of corruption, kleptocracy/oligarchy with how the incoming administration is shaping up.

Thank you so much, Adam.

Tariffs against American is ok but when you start talking about America doing it these so called experts think it is bad. Strange how that works.

Disappointing when compared to the Michael Every interview. Michael really dived into the details of the Trump plan. Felix gives us the same old 50,000 foot view.

We should consider the likelihood that real interest rates are negative right now, if only the government reported a more accurate CPI.

He always made this awesome case for gold….then told us he had 5% in gold.

Tarrifs are great for us. Not using tariffs has resulted in the US losing trade wars for years. Tariffs and cut the government. We don’t need a big government

If we fall 50% many will be jumping out, not in - out windows!😮

It's all doom and gloom every year doesn't anyone see the light at the tunnel..

I remember it feeling like a eureka moment a few months ago when I first read properly about Blockchain and crypto. Weirdest thing was how excited I was to tell all my friends and family about it but it was basically like banging my head against a brick wall. Guess most still need their own eureka moment to set them off( just hope its not too late for them). I started investing and trading in the Crypto market almost immediately.Despite this volatility, the market remains profitable. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months..Amidst this, the insights of a knowledgeable guide like that of Jinny Franz has been crucial. Her expertise in navigating the nuances of cryptocurrency investments has been the key for Me understanding and making the most of these emerging financial trends.

I find it humorous that the whole premise of this interview is based on trump instigating tariffs. Any thinking person knows trump is a pathological lair who will say anything to his base, anything they want to hear, that will get him re-elected. I'll believe it when I see it, but trumps track record is that of a lying, opportunist, POS. Adam and Frank proceed as if their economic forecast is based on whatever trump said should be taken as the gospel. To do so is a fools errand.

He also predicted a big correction/recession which never happened.

One comment: The dollar has not lost "98 percent of its value" over the past 100+ years. Surprised that howler is still getting passed around by individuals who should be more sophisticated. First, if you think about it this doesn't make sense: Why would the dollar lose 98% of purchasing power in the same 100-year period when the US became the richest nation in the history of the world? Second, to account for purchasing power you have to include the compounding value of treasury bill interest. The proper comparison for, say, $10,000 from 1914 is not $10K in a coffee can; it is $10K in a treasury bill account. If you compound the $10K at a t-bill rate of interest over the past 100+ years, minus the rate of inflation, you get a more realistic account of purchasing power. Same thing goes for the Swiss Franc: All claims that XYZ currency have lost 90-100% of their value over a century or whatever are financially illiterate because fiat currencies are a form of government security and cash would not be held as physical cash over time, but as a treasury-bill or t-bill type equivalent.

Never do naked shorts!

When markets go down, the IV usually goes up, sooo….

Where do market timers like me stand, I have 300k in money market funds with Fidelity and scared to invest in anything, stocks and gold are volatile alike and bonds are a no go area for me? What is the best course of action?

Good interview with Felix, as always. His reading on financial challenges with debt are informative but I would differ a bit on his take on trade and tariffs. Trump’s messaging on tariffs is a bargaining strategy, not a trip down Smoot-Hawley Lane. The bigger issue for trade is US$ policies and central banks. A strong US$ and economy will continue to bleed resources from the periphery and lead to the political conflicts Felix sees on the horizon. Central bank policies will also determine the trajectory of liquidity, as Felix says. But these actions are unpredictable and will shore up credit and liquidity ss long as they can. High i rates with QT is designed to rationalize credit, which under QE and ZIRP was irrational. Tariffs will also be used to rationalize trade flows and border security, so will vary accordingly. Felix’s market outlook sounds about right with the caveat being, what will the Fed and UST do?

Enjoy his interview every year. Thank you

Quality advice thankyou

Ive followed everything Felix predicted the past year. He's been completely wrong this year outside of gold even there his end of year results were false

Excellent mkt update

highly overdue interview, great analysis

I'm getting annoyed by everyone now claiming that tariffs made the greatest depression when basically nobody mentioned it before Trump's talk about tariffs...... and nobody talks about the central bank getting involved making it worse..... the claims don't stand up to critical analysis.

Once a month would be great..