What If A Coming Recession & Bear Market Are The LEAST Of Our Worries? | John Rubino
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ส.ค. 2024
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History is full of examples where nations resorted to taking on ever-increasing amounts of debt to maintain a positive economic growth rate.
But it never works out well for those who do. Most often, they end up sacrificing the purchasing power of their currencies in the process.
Many analysts are now raising such concerns about the fast growing national, corporate and consumer debt pile in the US and other G7 nations.
Are we repeating the mistakes of history? Or is it truly different this time?
To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome monetary and macro analyst John Rubino, author and co-author of numerous books including The Money Bubble with James Turk.
John sees concerns of a near-term recession and bear market as valid, but fairly pedestrian. He’s much more worried about the next 1-2 decades, over which he predicts widespread hardship as the world’s fiat currencies get inflated away.
#debtcrisis #marketcorrection #recession
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Your intro music is WAY too loud compared to the speaker's starting volume.... I tried to get to the start of his 'coming soon...' and it blew my speakers. :P Just a suggestion...
I don’t think anyone should hire a professional money manager without first reviewing their past performance. Where can one find a record of New Harbor ‘s past performance. I have not been able to find it on their website, which is concerning. If they are not willing to share their performance record, why should I trust them?
😊
Gr8 interview and insightful content (not advice!!) Thanks. Am I the only sceptic out here ...... that the inverse intention of EVs and TheGreienAjenda ....... is to keep people from using cars, eating natural foods and being healthy generally? THey know the outrageous, virtually impossible task of mining enuf commodities to power all Greine needs. Hence .....
Adam, you are likeable but can you stop saying “look” all the time? It diminishes your credibility.
I paid off my debt in two years listening to this channel kept me balanced and focused. I realize now true freedom is wanting less having no attachments to people or things or ideas about how you have to be . Just be just be and be free
I just realized why I enjoy this channel so much. Adam has guests that I want to hear from but at the same time I don't mind at all when he cuts in and shares his opinion of things as well. He always chimes in with an analogy that helps to better understand what the guests is trying to relate. Most other channels I just want the host to shut up and let the guest speak lol. Great show guys!
I at this very moment I'm sitting in my car in line at a food bank. Food bank as in food for poor people. The line just keeps getting longer every week.
I hope things pick up
I was in line like this at the end of USSR (only no cars for most people).
Now i live in the USA.
At least you will not live it twice. Hope you feel better.
Hope things get better for you! God bless!
@@nikkimontgomery6889 thanks Nikki.
So the question is do those in the line still have net flicks and the newest IPhones? Or do they see this as free hand out?
I like the way Rubino and Pento scare the hell out of me. I always click.
Cheap thrills, eh?
@@billybudapest3129 not cheap. following their advice loses you a lot of money.
They've both been saying the same things since I first heard them on YT (15 years), yet nothing ever happens.
@@douglash.8862 are... Your,.. comma,.. and period.... Keys,.Broken???
@@douglash.8862 Douglas you must either very young or very bully you can disagree without offending anyone, readers included like me. !
I know a person who applied for an average white collar job position with a large entity in response to their job posting. After not hearing back for a few weeks he called their HR department to ask about the status of his application. They basically laughed and said the job posting was a very old one that they never took down. That's happened more than once. So this is very anecdotal but if this practice is wide spread it would help explain the difference between the reported job data and the reality people are experiencing.
Adam is correct ... Recessions are painful ... but a natural occurrence in a business cycle, each time you avoid it by manipulation you create a bubble ... all bubbles burst eventually ... and no one knows where and when the top is
Adam, I really enjoy listening to the vast majority of your guests and their subjects. They have areas of knowledge ranging from finance, money management, economics, geopolitics, commodities and demographics, and they come at us with their different points of view as to where they think the financial world is headed. John is one such guest. Thank you.
Always a struggle to discern Doom Porn from solid research per the economy. Thoughtful Money is much better than most…. 80% is now Doom Porn for sure!
Why do you bother to comment on so many of his videos? As you so desperate to bury your head in the sand you feel compelled to lie to everyone else to convince yourself?
good video. We Are in Unchartered Financial Waters! Daily challenges have become the new norm, and what we once considered crises are now routine. Amidst the country's economic struggles, I'm determined to protect my hard-earned $680,000 savings and explore ways to grow my wealth during this transformative period. How can I optimize my earnings and safeguard my financial future?
Keeping some gold is usually a wise decision. You would be better off keeping away from equities for a bit or, even better, seeking advice from an financial expert given the current market conditions and everything that is at risk with the current economy.
You have a very valid point, . Initially, I began investing independently and experienced significant losses in the market for a considerable period. However, I eventually made the decision to engage the services of a financial expert, despite my initial skepticism. Surprisingly, I managed to outperform the market by over 9%. At first, I considered it a stroke of luck, but this success repeated itself for two consecutive years. As a result, I have since continued to rely on investing through a financial expert.
Could you possibly recommend a financial expert you've consulted with?
monica Mary strigle ’ , is a renowned figure in her line of work. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for saving me hours of back and forth investigation into the markets. I simply copied and pasted her full name into my browser, and her website came up first in search results. She looks flawless.
Winter is coming
They've warned us of that for many years via the media with this phrase and yes, it is
@@InvestgoldUKWinter is here & it going get colder. 😅
@@InvestgoldUKYes, Gold be good. Soverigns be nice. 😊
@@InvestgoldUKWithin 10 or 15 years it might become a gold centric world? 😊
@@InvestgoldUKMaybe less, as few as 5 or 6 or 7 years. 😊
uh this market is so rigged by big players and hft trading that being a small fish shorting is a nightmare. advocating that is nuts. really bad. most people should just buy gold and uranium and other commodities and protect themselves from the inflation tsunami that way. maybe buy the consumer corps that people have no choice to buy weekly. energy stocks too. if your not a trader with your face in charts all day long forget being clever with stupid things like shorts.
Machine trading
I feel pretty comfortable shorting the SP500 via ETF fund SH, but agree with your perspective for individual stocks. The insurance risk hedge seems pretty sensible though. I don't know the technicals to do that and I want things that give me low risk without fees.
Seeing the SP500 is again hitting all time highs...... and there are many storm clouds in the economic forecast, shorting the market seems like a relatively low risk if done through an ETF like SH. This strategy has paid off most of the time I have used it and a couple times I took the loss and got out.
I'm hearing many experts predicting a big retraction and if jobs are the final domino to fall and govt data is no longer able to hide the layoffs ..... seems like the retraction might be fairly close.
I am only about 5% into SH but adding a little each week by reducing short term Treasuries..... currently around 50 PCT of my portfolio.
The rest is scattered in gold (GLD)and other commodities that have been beaten down over the last 3 years. I've recently added UNG and wheat / corn ETFs. Might get back into silver or copper or a little of both, but I prefer to stay under 10 percent for most assets..... and also own my home, so. I have a little diversity outside of my retirement account.
Anyway, I think shorting the market can be a relatively conservative component as long as the position does not expire like an options contract.
Just my sense of things and I may turn out to be wrong on the timing..... but if the correction comes 12 months later than expected but is 40 percent or more, I'm likely going to come out with a net gain. I was badly burned in the Dot com bubble burst in 2000-2001. Thought I got out of the way and after a 1500 point drop I started buying back.....at 2500 points down (NASDAQ) I sold most everything and held just cash again..... Ended up losing almost 50 percent. A short fund or position in a scenario like that can offset a lot of other losses and IMO it's a pretty decent "bet" in times like this. But I'm not an expert and do your own research folks.... don't rely on my opinion.
This is what I’ve been doing @marsmotion
Parabolic doesn't mean vertical. It is a geometric figure that describes an up and down.
Rubino and Pento - 2 of the best guests ever.
Im a tech worker. In the late 90's cisco could do no wrong and demand was so high it could sell above asking price. This is exactly what Nvidia is doing.
In the tech wreck cisco found that lots of newish equipment flooded the secondary market for 10 cents/ USD. This crushed their sales numbers.
Look at their chart, they never recovered.
IMHO the only good recovery story from the tech wreck is Microsoft. They were a golden child in the 90's and are still a golden child.
My point is how is this time any different.
Exactly... I tell folks all the time NVDA is todays CSCO... Pull up a damn chart.
Microstrategy is far worse
@@bacool I understand that folks have to understand what their optimal time horizion is. The shorter the time frame the less risk IMHO. You do your long stuff (best of luck seriously not being sarcastic) and I will do my day trading and swing trading. Let's meet back here in 3 to 5 years and see how we did?
Microsystems @@bacool
"It never rains, but when it does it pours". Why is this happening? Partly because of foreign policy punitive measures, production cost increases and most important uncontrolled price rises based on profits only. Very good subject and guest. Thank you both.
When I saw that Adam's guest was John Rubino, I couldn't have been more pleased. Two of my favorite people conversing as friends and equals in the economic space was absolutely delightful. And, yes, I subscribe to John's and Adam's respective Substacks.
A great interview.
Thanks Adam and John.
“Winter is coming” Game of Thrones was really one big metaphor representing the global economic and financial history/future. 🤔
Winter came for the Frey's.. it's only a matter of time friend.
Not a metaphor when considering using the growing season to store food for the winter!
John Rubino has been singing the same song for over 15 years.
Anyone who acted on his predictions lost money.
Don’t believe me, do your own research.
There are plenty of John’s old interviews on TH-cam.
Take what he says with a grain of salt.
Unbearable. He’s been saying the same thing for a very long time. There must be a lot of money to be made singing his song of doom.
This song has been sung for over 100 years, by others, like Robert H. Hemphill, Credit Manager
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Georgia (1935), who insisted it was a very urgent matter. He was right to call attention to the house of cards that is our money system. Rubino is also right, about the crash, if not its timing.
When it happens, you'll change your tune!
BRILLIANT, absolutely brilliant…
Thank you so much to both of you
it is a good thing I ended up studying Economics as a focus, in large part due to the professors who taught it, and also that it made me realize academics in the early 1980's was not for me. I find someone like John Rubino tells the truth and I do want to know the least of our worries, though I am not a worrier, I am an optimist if we do a paradigm shift and are not fearful. Thank you.
20 million illegal military aged men nothing to see here
Great content Adam. Could you bump up the sound a little a notch?, it's kind of low. Besides is better to let the audience adjust it than for it to be low. Just a thought.
Fantastic. Love John Rubino ❤
Rubino + New Harbor= Great listening.
So much thoughtful and poignant analysis in this video.
Great interview! I always enjoy listening to John Rubino
Your reporting and analysis is at the top of its class and is presented with clarity. Your investigation skills is bringing hope for the future of our economy, what's a best buy for a 250k capital ?
Adam, Consider having Greg Manarino on your show. He has a different take on the markets and the larger economic picture. Thanks, as always. Great show with great guests.
I second this 🙌
Third this
The backdrop wall behind Adam Taggart ALWAYS looks like a SNAKE ! ... a VERY OMINOUS icon !!!!
LOL I was thinking it looks like he is in a very pretty cave (a bunker)😂
I was thinking that it was a lot of broccoli.
Agree have no idea what it is
It really isn't attractive in the least.
Just two handsome men deliberating on the debt apocalypse and Mad Max future
Groce
Brilliant discussion, thanks for having John back
Nice to hear Mike and John too
Agreed re: the jobs. I know more than 1 person that has said the same thing: Applied to around 1000 jobs and not heard anything. One friend of mine said he could be 'under-employed', meaning making a lot less than he used to, but has not gone that route yet.
I really enjoyed this interview as always. Thanks, Adam.
Great interview however i have one question, the physical ETF's that he is talking about, what are the ticker symbols for them? I don't know much about them but i have heard of them however if i wanted to do research i need the tickers. Can anyone tell me what they are? Also what are the tax implications of owning these in the US? Thanks in advance.
Many succeed because they got lucky, then they think they are smart. There are many one hit wonders in music and business. But better to have one hit than none.
The discussion regarding large increases in electric power generation and distribution is a little misleading.
While copper is very important in the electricity and electric device industry generally, all high voltage, direct current, electric transmission lines use aluminum rather than copper for a variety of reasons. In short, *aluminum* is just better for power transmission all the way from the generating plant to the supply lines buried in the street in front of your house. Inside your house, copper is preferred because it is easier to work with. Of course, aluminum can be used safely with proper components and a properly trained electrician. When copper prices get high enough, single family home and small apartment construction does switch to aluminum lines to reduce costs.
I believe the forecasts for copper are based on projections for growth in EVs, not the housing market
Your reporting and analysis is at the top of its class and is presented with clarity. Your investigative skill is bringing hope for the future of our country
John Rubino my favorite!!😊
Great guest, thanks Adam!
Becoming a financial household name in an era of scarcity will be dangerous. Think of how much it will cost for security!
Thank you Adam
Great show guys!!! I’m Bullish AF!!! My portfolio’s up ~$550k YTD. I’ve had a great run in energy stocks and my ETFs are have been in the Green, SCHD dropped a huge dividend and VGT has been going absolutely bonkers. I think it really comes down to picking a strategy, understanding it, and staying the course!
So everyone else who lost or is losing most of their money are complete idiots?
Adam - your narrative of the high post-covid turnover misses the most critical point:
Working conditions were awful at that time.
Teachers went back and forth between in-room vs remote at the last minute, service employees had to mask, not talk to coworkers even on break, and were asked to enforce masking on reluctant customers, workloads soared as pay went nowhere and friends lucky enough to get layoffs earned more money, etc.
Office workers had it easy, they got to enjoy nice, cushy remote work (I was one of those). I had friends and family who couldn’t put up with things any more and quit in teaching, hospitals, consumer retail, and commercial tile installation.
The fundamental reason for a new commodity boom is that lithium, copper, nickel, cobalt, manganese, silver, graphite and rare-earth metals are all involved in the generation, storage and transmission of electricity. All of them, with perhaps the exception of Lithium, are becoming harder to find and extract or mine. The domestic sector uses 35-45% of electricity - mostly in heating/cooling and cooking. There are many reasons to suggest higher prices for these commodities and Ai is one of the leading sources of the demand push. How much of an electricity price rise household consumers will be willing to bear is hardly mentioned. Artificial Intelligence does not vote (but does have powerful lobby), while consumers do vote. In the present inflationary environment I think it will be difficult to give Ai precedence over people.
Did someone find the interview with jonathan wellum?
Thanks for the excellent interview with Mr. Rubino. I always learn so much from your channel. I wish he could have discussed what other investments or financial decisions would be wise for the coming decade. I have heard that it's not just commodities, but physical assets in general, that may be wise to hold onto as they may hold their value better in the coming storm. My one question after having listened to Mr. Rubino and in the past few weeks, Melody Wright, is whether it is wiser to hold onto a home if you already have one, or even to buy one if you don't, because your home is a physical asset. I have to respectfully push on this point because on the one hand, if I understand her correctly, Melody believes we are in a real estate bubble. But I wish we had heard Mr. Rubinio's opinion on whether he thinks some real estate, including the homes we live in, will be a good place to park money. If inflation does spiral out of control, one would think it is, at least in areas that are not overbuilt.
Already in a recession however this time the agenda is much different
I helped to build the eagle gold mine in the Yukon.They actually Use Cyanide to extract the gold from the crushed rock
Thank you Adam and guests for a macro education. Bull or bear the conclusion is the same, only the bulls think they can get off at the top floor and the bears think they can hibernate in gold, bitcoin, metals or farm land. Can you do a couple of episodes on what a global debt jubilee looks like? What conditions need to be met, framework, pros and cons? A great bearington (pun on Barrington) declaration of independent economists. Just a small request... lol.
probably just an equal % of each countries GDP. For governments obviously, doubt they would do it for the people.
Rubino has been saying this for years. You lost a lot of money if you’ve followed his or Adams advice. Listen at your own peril
Yeah I get what you're saying but here's the thing. You miss the last 20% pop in the markets but you want get crushed by the 80% drop in equities that we all know is coming. Timing is always the hardest part of investing. I would rather be out early and miss some gains the. lose everything I have saved. I lost around $500 to $750 in the GFC and it made me extremely cautious. Probably too conservative? What's lose to me is that I know i'll hit the big gains in metals because I was in very early, Ill pick up the big dividend payers after they correct to the downside and i'll collect high yields plus the stock price increase over the next 10 years and that will make up more the. enough of the gains I missed by being super early. What do you think about my hypothesis?
Yeah except he was saying he wasn’t chasing the last 5% about 25% or 30% ago, yet it keeps going. 😕
Haha, u seen gold prices? No, diversified approach has worked great. Adam had Tom Lee on at the beginning of 2023 telling us the market was going to rip.... and it did. Respectfully, I disagree with your sentiment.
Channels like this offer opinions, and often the data behind it. They specifically warn that this is not advice. It's up to you to decide how to use what these discussions and interviews offer.
Thank you very much...
Great interview. And cool backdrop, Adam!
Thanks -- glad you like it!
Adam, please bring back David Hunter for his "I told you so" interview tour. The first half of his (wild at the time) thesis has played out. I'd like to hear if he's still good with the second half.
When the herd changes sentiment from a always up sentiment to a lock in gains frenzy then it’s all about who can get out fastest because price has way exceeded value and most know it’s not returning for a very long time
Agreed that we may want to keep a keen eye on the Japanese economy for how the endgame on enormous debt plays out in a large economy for a preview the future path for the US (there are differences but also similarities).
Thanks!
Thank you very much!!
@@adam.taggart It's helpful and reassuring to be this close to the Truth. Please keep tracking it down.
I posted on another channel exactly what he is saying. Overpriced stocks & a recession is a bad combination. the cap/gdp ratio is about 186%, which is the second highest ever
Adam, when are you going to let us invest in Thoughtful Money?
If the roots are strong. there will be growth in the spring.
Chauncey!
Get prepared it is going to be ugly, a lot of suffering, and it is just getting started...
Avino Silver and Gold ASM!
Got a little, don't remember where I got the idea, but it's been good. Took a hit today... ;-/ Buy in point???
11:55 mark he states what would happen with another 10 T of debt .. i wonder what this man would have said
say 5 years ago if he was told the debt would be over 30 T now.. i doubt he would state the mkts would be at all
time highs
5 years ago he was selling books on how the debt from back then would make things explode...
Great interview again Adam, If the market crashes and they try bank bail-ins do you think trust companies domestic or foreign entities will be protected? When they ratified the bail-in doc they must have writen afew clauses on how to advoid said bail-in
Protect yourself with bitcoin.... 😊
AI stocks will dominate 2024. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take these other recommendations you made.
I agree, just because the market presents opportunities doesn't mean we should rush in headfirst. For this reason, we should look for appropriate market analysis or guidance or, alternatively, seek advice from certified market strategists.
No doubt, having the right plan is Invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.
Can you share details of your advisor? I want to invest my increased cash flow in stocks and alternative assets to achieve financial goals.
Iynne Marie Stella is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
How many people have lost out on future wealth by sitting out this massive rally this year because of bearish viewpoints
I'm planning on capturing that wealth when the markets go down.
Adam I am your biggest fan and subsriber. But please get rid of the green "snake" behind you. I'll bet some adviser suggested it because the green subliminally signals monetary success or some such positive outcome. God, that thing is hideous! But again, I live for your Substack and frequent videos.
Loved the Winter analogy
Chauncey Gardiner
Thank you Adam...
Slowly building my short, while scaling out of stocks..... take care Adam.
From 🇨🇦
James
Rubino is clear and logical without tin hat overkill. Refreshing. Doomers have scared people out of profits routinely for 2 decades, in my experience. Risk is and has been high, but that is different than "bearish". Currency crisis "turned out not to be imminent" says JR. True, but what has happened in the bond market since it broke its major trends in 2022 indicates that something unlike what has taken place since 2000 is oncoming. Whether in the currency market, debt markets, equities or all of the above.
the price of copper is way down. Silver goes down whenever it gets to $30
Small shorts, exactly! Because in a system collapse, you may not be able to collect on correct bets you've made. Just for fun!
I believe we need an update on John's portfolio (Substack) about his evaluation on miners after his expressions on this show.
Buying NEM and GOLD and NFGC
There are a lot of people with no debt?
Not only do the people sacrifice purchasing power they also get robbed of everything they own in the process
In a small town, how can we get a good advisor when we have to close our 401k soon?
What??? America's future is to look more and more like Haiti?...Why I'm sooo shocked!
Port a Prince in das Haus!
Debt death spiral. The only way out is to have a budget surplus & pay down the debt
gold & silver are inflation hedges. If the core pce is only 2.6%, why should they go up ?
Truth...refreshing truth
Would the drop in interest rates offset the expected increase in social services during the next recession?
I think if the govs cap rates and run inflation hot.. they won’t be far off steering credit growth either… credit will become highly political as well .. they’ll be forced to cause otherwise everyone’s gonna borrow
No way can we electrify the world in the current environmental crisis.
Let's go!.
Japan and the U.S., completely different countries and different circumstances. Population of the U.S. growing and going to continue growing. Japan was replaced by China as a low cost manufacturing country. The U.S. has a re-shoring of manufacturing occuring. The U.S. is energy self-sufficient, the U.S. is a major agricultrural exporter. The U.S. is a major arms exporter. Comparing the U.S. and Japan is ridiculous. Then there is the reserve currency status .
te Us has the global currency of exchange and that has allowed massive leverage- that is what happend in 2008 and the US debt risk is more than twice the size now.
Why does Rubino's analysis of JPY/USD start from 2020 instead of 1980? Maybe it's inconvenient to his interpretation?
I really wish the guests on this channel would speak up so those of us that are old can hear them 😁
Turn up your volume. 😮
Is the credit card high interest rate related to risk of default and the very high demand and limited supply or???
What about privatisation of public assets to pay off the debt? Or does the US have nothing left to sell?
Privatising public assets for pennies on the dollar does not make good sense.
CEF and SPP are two physical etfs I like
Nice background Adam, looks like you’re in your cave…😊
John Rubino 🤌🏾
14:38 What happens to chart when changed to log scale and overlaid with personal income?
After WWII there were comparable debt levels yet we had 30 years of the greatest increase in GDP ever. How did that happen? High tax rates on the ultra wealthy redirected to public projects. It worked then it'll work again. Who has loaned all that money to governments and consumers? The only people who have money. Tax them.
Wrong. You can tax them a little more but if you go too high they'll put their money in tax shelters that are not productive, or they'll move money overseas.
We are in a debt bubble that cannot be repaid...even if you tax billionaires 100% of their incomes. What you better hope for is survival.
How did that happen? We actually PRODUCED things.
Did I mention copper some 3 years on Mr T? :)
However
This assumes that EV s are the future of transport. There are several innovations developing in Asia including Methane and solid state batteries- which I think may be using a salt.
THE DEBT CANT BE PAID THE GOVERMENT ONLY HAS TWO REALY BAD OPTIONS DEFAULT WHICH WOULD MEAN THE GOVERMENT CANT BORROW WHICH WOULD MEAN MASSIVE CUTS IN SERVICES OR CONTIUNE BORROWING MONEY TO PAY INTERST ON DEBT WHICH MEANS DEVALUING THE DOLLAR AND HYPERIFLATION
Hello, I was trying to find that video you mentioned with Jonathan W-something about royalty companies, but couldn't find it..
Start at 8m:28s in this video th-cam.com/video/9y_Dnv0kW_M/w-d-xo.htmlsi=d4THiZ9aEIeYQnx2
@@adam.taggart thank you
What is “shorting”?
Selling stocks that you don't own.
Just think like you withdraw 1000$ from your account when there is only 500$ on the account.
You are now 500$ in red and you will have to pay intrest on that.
Adam you should interview Jeff Snyder
There will be income/wealth redistribution. Trying get ahead just puts the bullseye on your back. You simply make enough for a middle class life and no more. Greed will get you eventually.