For video transcript and direct links, please visit kdwalmsley.substack.com/p/why-china-is-winning-the-chips-race Editor note: Intel, Samsung, TSMC, have chip fabrication facilities in China. Nvidia does not have chip fabs, as they outsource their latest generation chips to TSMC. Nvidia does, however, maintain robust distribution and sales channels across Mainland China, where they book about 12% of their global revenues.
China will utilize the principle: if you don't sell us the high-end chips we want, we won't buy chips we ourselves con produce from you. And those will be an increasing portion of them. That will put a strangle hold on Western semiconductors! With reduced profits, the R&D will slow down, while China's will increase theirs. We all know this, but the US find it difficult to act accordingly.
@@larsnystrom6698. There is already a “delete America” program at Huawei. Any and all components in any Huawei product originating in the US are being replaced with components made in China. The US is no longer considered to be a reliable supplier and trading partner.
US-centric semiconductor R&Ds have been self-hypnotized to chase after "Moore's Law" with little regards for efficiency and economy. That's why giants like Intel and Motorola are dropping like flies. Will NVIDIA be the next?
I've been surprised for 10 years that so many people have failed to see China's progress and advancements and believe that China is doing badly and collapsing. Whenever I can, I recommend your channel because you speak objectively and realistically, presenting data instead of appealing to emotions.
Because the western media has found it’s more lucrative telling people that China will fail, than telling the truth. People will always hear what they want to hear.
Containment is a fools errand. Cooperation and diplomacy should be the strategy for the future. It's hard to implement such policies when you have been behaving like a bully for 40 years.
Raimondo Says Holding Back China in Chips Race Is a ‘Fool’s Errand’ Investment, more than export controls, will keep the U.S. ahead of Beijing, Commerce secretary says.
God is living. What inhumane atrocities of unrighteousness will be destroyed by the hands of God. A world of righteousness of united love, harmony & prosperity will receive the blessings of God to flourish & prosper on earth.
The american math olympiad team is all chinese execpt one guy. Last year I believe we had the american math olympiad team win from the chinese math olympiad team. But when you look at the american team you realized that ultimately it was the chinese who won. western arrogance will be our downfail.
Careful there! Are you suggesting that the team was ethnic Chinese? Would that be random? Why is it not ... [insert group you know it would not be]? thank you for your post. People are beyond delusional and they need to read what you said. China gets it. "Real Life" "Truth" "Reality" It goes by many names, but the West wants to understand or see none of it.
China has been applying the "Villages Surrounding the City" strategy made famous by Chairman Mao Zedong to defeat adversaries much bigger than them. Starting with defeating the KMT during the Chinese Civil War to now the chip war. China practically dominates the production of legacy semi-conductors ("villages" in this figure of speech) while catching up on the high end chips (city in this regard). What's surprising to me is that China is doing this in a relatively short amount of time -- roughly in 3 US presidential terms. Just look at their military advancement. China debuted its 5th-gen stealth fighter in 2011. 13 years later (~3 US presidential terms), two 6th-gen stealth fighter/bombers were debuted at the same time. 40 years ago, their best fighters were first-gen Soviet era relics. From zero to one in a blink of an eye figuratively if not literally.
I just turned 40 years old this past Christmas and I love this comment. As an American living in the Rust Belt state of Michigan, it hits hard. I've watched as Chinese products went from being cheap junk 33 years ago, to now have top quality and ready to lead the world. I've learned about Chinse industrial planning succeeding while America fails to plan, over and over again. I've watched China advance, as millions of people leave my state over the decades, and as America flails and turns against itself. Our "leaders" hollowed out our nation and now blame Russia & China. It's sad that so many Americans buy into the lies.
I have a feeling that, everything one can think of when it comes to technology, China is either developing or already a leader in that field, there is no way, absolutely no chance that anyone could possibly catch up. They are just on a whole different level. Chinese deserves their glories with all the extreme hard work the put into everything.
I worked in the tech industry all my life. I am amazed by how innovative, determined and efficient my Chinese colleagues are. My white colleagues are usually bossy, noisy and impatient people. Some of my Indian colleagues are intelligent but many like to cut corners.
This is why I laughed at the stupidity of the reasoning "China wants to attack Taiwan because China wants to take Taiwanese chip industry" 😂 There is nothing that the Taiwanese can achieve that the Chinese cannot themselves achieve.
The Americans just want to sell more out of date American made weapons to Taiwan n likewise give big commissions to the Taiwanese pro independence party.😅😅😅
@ hahahaha Chinese for century are in Taiwan…likewise with regards to TSMC , how would u know n sure that their technology hv not already transferred to the mainland?
My favorite channel I'm 83 years old and all this talk about billions and billions and more billions adding up to trillions is making my head spin I know it's of topic but all this money being wasted is criminal if the US and China fully and amicable cooperated billions would be saved and better for all of us. Just saying 🤔
I know. Something that helped me understand the size of the numbers is this: one million seconds is 12 days, one billion seconds is 32 years, one trillion seconds is 32 thousand years.
The investments by China are not wasted because they lower the cost of chips, subsequently many downstream products. The investments by US is largely wasted because of wrong incentive (national security), near-sighted strategies, poor execution, and lack of talents. Therefore, it is a good news that China is spending trillions of dollars for the benefits of the world.
I m 61, I used to change my mobile phone every year for their newest features. I haven't changed to a new phone for three years now because there are no real breakthroughs in their cameras and speed, and these days my friends mostly buy China phones because they cost 30% of an IPhone or a Samsung, still have 90% of the latest features
Incentives? Without the Chinese market, they don't have a business case for their investments. They are forced to sit on their butts to watch Chinese chip makers zoom far ahead.
This is NO SURPRISE. BCG predicted that China would be forced to develop, when China was previously perfectly happy to buy reasonably-priced chips and tools, rather than investing vast amounts of time and capital to develop their own. This is the exact same situation that is driving China to becoming a competitor in commercial aircraft and advanced military equipment.
@ The Chinese are already planning to mine the far side of the moon for Helium-3 Which will power fusion reactors and power the space ships to explore the rest solar system, galaxy and universe As that Helium-3 on the moon is expected to power the world for 10,000 years To me that is a smarter move Even if humanity decides to eventually inhabit Mars We will need the fuel to get us there and beyond
It's simple, without the market for those advanced chips, research and development will regress, which is dependent on revenue from chip sales. At the same time, Chinese semiconductor companies will only get better, because they can supply Chinese companies, and they are also getting subsidies from the government. These Chinese chips can supply Chinese companies that make computers, smartphones, electronics, SBCs, industrial computers, network equipment, etc. As time goes by, Chinese chip companies will grow, while US chip companies will stagnate.
@@johnyossarian9059 Doesn't matter. The "reporters" of the main stream media in the USA do not report these at all and Ursula von der Leyen still manages to convinced Europe that Russia is using chips from old washing machines. An amazing achievement in building Hypersonic missiles. Americans prefer to focus on the form and not the substance. In case people missed it, increasing number of countries no longer have any respect for America and their media.
"Why China is winning the chips race: materials, markets, money, and Moore's Law" Don't forget: (wo)men. Seven out of 10 largest semiconductor companies have CEOs, or CTOs who are Chinese or ethnic Chinese. Not to mention 70% plus of all the chip engineers are East Asians.
AMD was on the ropes a few years ago and was saved by a deal with a mainland company. The big advantage that AMD developed (jointly with the mainland company) was packaging multiple chips in one package. Not only did it save AMD from bankruptcy, it made AMD beat Intel. This means mainland China shares the best packaging technology with AMD.
@@StephenYuan it’s in the technology news at the time. When the current CEO took over a few+ years ago. AMD was floundering and the deal she made provided cash to keep going and bring to market their chip module. The modules made technical & production & performance sense for a lot of reasons. I don’t know which mainland company and how they split up the module design and production effort. AMD designed the circuits and i believe TSMC fabbed the chips for inside the module.
@@StephenYuan It is essentially an AMD Epyc chip with (for some reason) a much slower clock speed. We actually liked the fact that it is practically identical to AMD Epyc, as we were using CentOS/Redhat Linux and we really don't want anything weird that effect the application performance. Of course, upon close inspection, the Chinese chip had a sightly different behavior, such as different core had a different i/o speed thus effect the storage performance we were trying to push, thus we had to adjust our software accordingly. Our client was somewhat embarrassed that they provided this made-in-China CPU server for us to test. But for us, it wasn't a big deal because our software were not CPU bounded, and that their application was more GPU dependent than CPU. Thus, it was a good time for the Chinese to do their own x64 CPU. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMD%E2%80%93Chinese_joint_venture
Kevin have a great new year and my deep appreciation for your straight shooting and unbiased honesty. Not forgetting the great and comprehensive research you put in to enlighten us. 😊The reason why I've never missed a single one of your broadcast and look forward to a new one everyday. Thank you and God bless you, sir.
Raimonda, in her recent interviews, said the sanctions and blockades have failed, and that she hopes Trump will not cut back on the Chips Act because the investment is more effective in strengthening the US than sanctioning China. OMG, she finally sees the light. But it is too late. On a side note, the US needs to reform its government structure. How can a short-term 4-year cycle manage any long-term strategies?
That's nothing. If at all possible, visit, and see how 1.4 billion people are living every day. Then you will see how China is a leading and developing country at the same time. Chinese GDP per person is about the same as Mexico - but it's like they live in different worlds.
Another outstanding and stimulating report. Who ever is advising the politicians to slap tariffs and bans on Chinese products really does not know economics. Kunming has magnificent golf courses. Cheers and keep up the great work in 2025.
3D chip packaging is actually invented by the chinese, basically stacking them top and bottom on the die. chiplets is also invented by the chinese. Big core and small core is also by the chinese. the recent huawei kirin chip is actually having more transistors and chips build on the same package, equivalent to a 3.5nm level
History is repeating itself in the EV sector. The US and EU blames Chinese subsidies, ignoring the fact that they too subsidize these sectors. The big difference is where the funding comes from. China has a total trade surplus of $1 trillion, the US has a trade deficit of about $850 billion. China can afford more deficit spending because of its huge trade surplus and it has the STEM mampower to implement its technology rise.
The US isn't sanctioning an early state EV industry. China's EV industry is fully developed, and has almost no dependency on US tech. The delay in allowing LEAP 1-C engines to be sold to COMAC for the C919 narrowbody jetliner is closer, as it led to a 2 year delay.
I am sitting back and watching the federal and provincial governments paying 18 billion dollars each for foreign car companies to build EV , while Chinese EV companies come into Brazil and Mexico and spend 1.5 billion . The Chinese companies are already taken over Ford plant and started building EV in Brazil and sells are up , because they also put infrastructure in . Politicians in the West are not elected for their smarts , but their ability to talk .
@@kamlee4010 talk, talk, talk, this is the thing I realised it started from a very young age while living overseas for many years. Kids are good at talking and very talkative from a young age... I remember teachers deemed it negative when seeing Asian kids are quite (not to express themselves). In the workplace, Asians are quite and focus, locals are coming to chat and work. Scientists and researchers are never talkative, but Trump can host a talk show every time at stage...(did you see Mr Xi ever talked like that, Chinese leaders sit together and loudly debate?...)
And you need a lot of electricity to run these chips to do what they are supposed to do. China uses more electricity per person than either the EU or the US combined. And China also generate more electricity and at lower rate than EU or the US.
And increasingly trying to generate these with environmentally friendly technology. Really hate the win-lose competitive mindset that stops us from benefitting from these tech advancements in the West. We'd all progress much faster together.
Nonsense. Iceland is the winner of that statistic by a mile at 51,300 KWH/Year per capita. Norway is second at 24,200 KWH/Year per capita. China per capita/year usage is 5,500 KWH. USA is 11,300.
@@bobsmith3983 China population is 4 times of the USA. That means China generate at least double of the USA. 26% of US electricity is for industrial sector. 58% of electricity in China is consumed by industries. And the rate is much cheaper in China. So there is no competition at all consider large amount of cheap electricity China can generate for its industrial sector. US, Norway or Iceland won't even come close in scale and cost even if China is running its computing with less advance chips.
Brilliant overview as usual. Kevin is unquestionably the best commentator / journalist on the Internet. Happy New Year and thanks for your insightful and intelligent reporting!
Best question-how will companies make their money back if they can’t sell to China? This is a question that does not get considered in boardrooms across many industries but should be almost top of the list.
If Moore's Law improvements have entered the phase of diminishing returns, then the next steps will be driven by innovation across the entire manufacturing spectrum: in addition to repackaging, improvements will come from new materials (diamond substrates for chips), new technologies (photonics), new approaches (nanotech, biocomputing), as well as unexpected and unpredictable benefits from basic research. We should not forget optimization of the software that runs on those chips. All of those things are enabled by investment and education. The wealth and education of America and the Western world have created leadership in in innovation for the last several centuries, but as economic development and education ramps up in the BRICS countries and the Third World, a more level playing field is starting to develop which opens the door to a new reality.
Here are the differences between our politicians and Chinese politicians: Our politicians went to school to learn how to debate (it means how to lie), and Chinese politicians went to school to learn science and engineering (it means how to build). Who do you think will win the competition, if you want to judge.
90% of US politicians are lawyers. They are expert at manipulating the system, playing games with the rules (i.e. sanctions), and deciding which parties and football games they will attend. Many are also racist (i.e. "stupid, slanted eyed, Chinamen can't be allowed to be better than us...") and ignorant. Be careful, they want nuclear war to stop China. 90% of Chinese politicians are engineers as you said. They are expert at "we can do better" in the face of competition. American here. I'm warning you all about the idiots, racists, and war criminals that lead the US.
Not really that true. The main difference between China and the US is that all of the think tanks and analysts in the US truly believe that ONLY the west can develop new technologies or even figure out advanced equipment. This is true with the whole world. The US believes they have all of the best and smartest people when that hasn’t been true for over 2 decades.
China is also using less and producing more with AI projects like DeepSeek-V3, which is an open source MoE that's better than GPT-4o at one tenth the price...👀
How can anyone "ban" physics and chemistry? As ASML Chief said, the "laws of physics" are the same for everybody. China will be able to master these rules faster and better.
Great work Kevin. Your channel, I believe, is the only one in U Tube that's not yapping this and that without backup information....and most impressively, you are willing to stand up and apologise for your occasional mistakes. Happy New Year ❤❤
If US and Europe aren’t going into manufacturing I think they shouldn’t worry about geopolitics. Without manufacturing they’ll be forgotten very quickly.
This is very, very good. Not only for China, but for all countries in their development. The rise of China, Russia, Iran and other countries are forcing the The Western Hegemony to redefine themselves. This is also a bonus effect.
It is not just the level of investment, it is also the availability of very well-educated STEM Graduates to provide the innovative workforce. Combine this with a fully vertically - integrated manufacturing ecosystem, and it is hard to see how China could NOT succeed in the areas where it has, and will become global leader in a very short time.
Huawei and SMIC have the skills and knowledge in making 5nm or less if they have access to newest EUV! Given China a few years, she will able produce EUV machine. It might not be advance as ASML first but certainly help them in chip war.
I'm waiting to hear news about China finding another base material that can allow much faster operational speed without resorting to reducing the size of transistors to below 2nm.
In 2004 our leaders were bombing iraq while china was busy building its infrastructure and investing in Education and RnD In 2024 our leaders are talking about bombing Iran and fighting over pronouns while china is leading the world in science and technology. We already spent 20 years heading in the wrong direction, i fear we, too, will have a 100 year of humiliation. 💔 🇺🇸
From Brazil, congratulations for the best channel. Your message model is perfect, short and effective. I don't miss a video of yours, wishing you a splendid 2025, following the same perfection. Hugs
I think China will make some spectacular breakthroughs in the next few years, whether it be in packaging, programming, lithography (SSMB manufacture) or new types of chips (photon, etc). It will totally dominate the legacy chips and then go on to take half of the market for premium chips. China won’t give up now until it owns most of the markets.
You knocked-it out of the park. I can imagine you asking your friends a whole bunch of questions about this stuff and you asked good questions. And compiled quite the compendium, here, for the non-anointed. Great-job!
I find it amusing that in certain crowds, the reflexive response to this whole China thing is that 'they don't have basic science' - don't come up with the 'big ideas'. What they don't understand is that Ideas are cheap. Engineering is hard. Experience (extracting, processing, manufacturing) is fundamental to building iterative engineering know-how. Sometimes the chinese workarounds are somewhat kludgy, but they work. May not be the 'bestest', nor 'most optimal', but they get the job done instead of winning awards from some magazine or blog.
So true. In startup land too. People think coming up with ideas is the brilliant part. Those genius ideas are rare. And without capability to execute well they're just pipe dreams. We overvalue dreams in the West & undervalue the drudge work required to realise those dreams.
A manufacturing power house with a low cost base, a big home market and therefore potential export market is a formidable opponent. How the West wish that it's 1900 when it can just sail 2 warships over to sort things out the international rule based way.
"ai experts believe generative AI only possible with 4nm chips and smaller" Deepseek v3: Heres a model we built on inferior chip sets that outperform GPT-o4 and costs 88% less to run, trained for 95% lower cost.
Will the incoming U.S. presidential administration have the understanding and focus to realize that international mutual cooperation with Russia and China is the most beneficial path forward forward for our country? So far many of its cabinet and ambassador choices are not promising in this regard.
US is providing great incentives to China to be self reliant on Semi conductor industries. Punishments are not always bad. It would be wise if US also focuses in maintaining the lead rather than slowing itself to block China from overtaking.
For video transcript and direct links, please visit
kdwalmsley.substack.com/p/why-china-is-winning-the-chips-race
Editor note: Intel, Samsung, TSMC, have chip fabrication facilities in China. Nvidia does not have chip fabs, as they outsource their latest generation chips to TSMC. Nvidia does, however, maintain robust distribution and sales channels across Mainland China, where they book about 12% of their global revenues.
China will utilize the principle: if you don't sell us the high-end chips we want, we won't buy chips we ourselves con produce from you. And those will be an increasing portion of them.
That will put a strangle hold on Western semiconductors! With reduced profits, the R&D will slow down, while China's will increase theirs.
We all know this, but the US find it difficult to act accordingly.
The more pressure applied to the Chinese, the more they bounce back
Trump's first big deal may be to have Musk work with the Chinese to finish the chip plants in the US.
@@larsnystrom6698. There is already a “delete America” program at Huawei. Any and all components in any Huawei product originating in the US are being replaced with components made in China.
The US is no longer considered to be a reliable supplier and trading partner.
US-centric semiconductor R&Ds have been self-hypnotized to chase after "Moore's Law" with little regards for efficiency and economy. That's why giants like Intel and Motorola are dropping like flies. Will NVIDIA be the next?
My best channel discovery of 2024. Thank you Kevin for the great content in 2024 and looking for more great content in 2025!
作为中国人 我来说明一下为什么我觉得美国会失败：比如半导体行业 是通过 技术制造商品-商品出售市场-市场获取盈利-盈利投入研究 -研究提升技术 这是一个产业的良性循环 美国的制裁 导致自己失去中国的市场 那么就对中国的半导体行业开放了这个市场 虽然 在技术上中国还和美国有差距 但是因为制裁 市场就会使用这些中国自产的商品 然后获利 然后再研发技术 那么就会对中国半导体行业形成一个良性的循环 再加上政府的支持 就会加快这种技术的提升 缩短与美国的距离 美国也会因为失去中国市场 减少企业盈利 放缓技术提升 然后中国又会在原材料方面对美国进行限制 提高美国生产成本 对美国形成一个恶性循环 而中国 每获得一次技术提升 利用我们本国的低成本优势 会迅速吃点美国在这个技术水平上的全球市场 比如2024年1-10月，中国半导体出口达9311.7亿元，同比增长21.4%，出口额超越韩国成为第二大出口国。
Best channel ever
You are the best channel for overall information for China . Look forward to it daily
2nded
Goat 🐐 channel
What happened to Pascal Coppens
Confirming what I already knew, damn Chinese, if you put them in a box they'll be free in a minute, then show you how to make a better box.
Rather the US is trying to brakecheck the China truck with a VW Passat. Instant karma.
😅😅😅
Yep! @vanowen3976 I can attest to that. Build and make a bigger and better box! LOL! ❤
They steal and copy your box while inside it.
I've been surprised for 10 years that so many people have failed to see China's progress and advancements and believe that China is doing badly and collapsing. Whenever I can, I recommend your channel because you speak objectively and realistically, presenting data instead of appealing to emotions.
US leaders know, but they don’t want ordinary people to realize.
R u a Japanese?
CCP STOOGES lie 😅
Winnie the Pooh Bear lies 😂
Yes your mom said so too@@OneThousandDayMilitaryOperatio
Because the western media has found it’s more lucrative telling people that China will fail, than telling the truth. People will always hear what they want to hear.
This is one of the best china tech and economics analysis channels.
Trying to contain China and Russia is the key plank in the USA/NATO foreign policy. The policy has been a spectator failure.
😂😂😂❤❤❤❤
And how!!!
💯✅️💯✅️
Containment is a fools errand. Cooperation and diplomacy should be the strategy for the future. It's hard to implement such policies when you have been behaving like a bully for 40 years.
Raimondo Says Holding Back China in Chips Race Is a ‘Fool’s Errand’
Investment, more than export controls, will keep the U.S. ahead of Beijing, Commerce secretary says.
You think Russia is fool?Russia is bordering China thousands of miles,why Russia will against China for West?
God is fair. He once blessed the United States, but now he is blessing China.
God is living. What inhumane atrocities of unrighteousness will be destroyed by the hands of God. A world of righteousness of united love, harmony & prosperity will receive the blessings of God to flourish & prosper on earth.
The american math olympiad team is all chinese execpt one guy.
Last year I believe we had the american math olympiad team win from the chinese math olympiad team.
But when you look at the american team you realized that ultimately it was the chinese who won.
western arrogance will be our downfail.
When the US team wins that means our Chinese beat their Chinese.
Carl Sagan warned about this 40 years ago. A society that glorifies ignorance will fall way behind after a generation or two.
Careful there! Are you suggesting that the team was ethnic Chinese?
Would that be random? Why is it not ... [insert group you know it would not be]?
thank you for your post. People are beyond delusional and they need to read what you said.
China gets it. "Real Life" "Truth" "Reality"
It goes by many names, but the West wants to understand or see none of it.
因为美国战队里的有很多亚洲人
Chinese are simply the smartest
China has been applying the "Villages Surrounding the City" strategy made famous by Chairman Mao Zedong to defeat adversaries much bigger than them. Starting with defeating the KMT during the Chinese Civil War to now the chip war. China practically dominates the production of legacy semi-conductors ("villages" in this figure of speech) while catching up on the high end chips (city in this regard). What's surprising to me is that China is doing this in a relatively short amount of time -- roughly in 3 US presidential terms. Just look at their military advancement. China debuted its 5th-gen stealth fighter in 2011. 13 years later (~3 US presidential terms), two 6th-gen stealth fighter/bombers were debuted at the same time. 40 years ago, their best fighters were first-gen Soviet era relics. From zero to one in a blink of an eye figuratively if not literally.
I just turned 40 years old this past Christmas and I love this comment. As an American living in the Rust Belt state of Michigan, it hits hard. I've watched as Chinese products went from being cheap junk 33 years ago, to now have top quality and ready to lead the world. I've learned about Chinse industrial planning succeeding while America fails to plan, over and over again. I've watched China advance, as millions of people leave my state over the decades, and as America flails and turns against itself. Our "leaders" hollowed out our nation and now blame Russia & China. It's sad that so many Americans buy into the lies.
never bet against China
instead join them
I think everyone should bet against China, that way they can reap the reward of their ignorance.
I have a feeling that, everything one can think of when it comes to technology, China is either developing or already a leader in that field, there is no way, absolutely no chance that anyone could possibly catch up. They are just on a whole different level. Chinese deserves their glories with all the extreme hard work the put into everything.
I worked in the tech industry all my life. I am amazed by how innovative, determined and efficient my Chinese colleagues are. My white colleagues are usually bossy, noisy and impatient people. Some of my Indian colleagues are intelligent but many like to cut corners.
IMO, this is the best and most under-subscribed TH-cam channel on China economic, technology and geopolitical subject matter. 👍
Some in the West sadly don't want to face reality, even if it's the first step in improving their own position.
Yu Toobe is probably retarding the channel as it sheds China in good light and the USA and it's lackeys in bad light all of which is true.
This is why I laughed at the stupidity of the reasoning "China wants to attack Taiwan because China wants to take Taiwanese chip industry" 😂 There is nothing that the Taiwanese can achieve that the Chinese cannot themselves achieve.
The Americans just want to sell more out of date American made weapons to Taiwan n likewise give big commissions to the Taiwanese pro independence party.😅😅😅
Before China even think of landing on Taiwan, US would have destroyed TSMC facilities. Talking about protecting Taiwan by US...
@ hahahaha Chinese for century are in Taiwan…likewise with regards to TSMC , how would u know n sure that their technology hv not already transferred to the mainland?
or taiwan doesnt matter if chip have no buyer.
China doesn't need to attack Taiwan to acquire chip foundry technology. They just need to hire TSMC engineers of which they have already done so.
My favorite channel I'm 83 years old and all this talk about billions and billions and more billions adding up to trillions is making my head spin I know it's of topic but all this money being wasted is criminal if the US and China fully and amicable cooperated billions would be saved and better for all of us. Just saying 🤔
Exactly 😊
Totally agree!
I know. Something that helped me understand the size of the numbers is this: one million seconds is 12 days, one billion seconds is 32 years, one trillion seconds is 32 thousand years.
China cooperated until Obama reneged.
The investments by China are not wasted because they lower the cost of chips, subsequently many downstream products. The investments by US is largely wasted because of wrong incentive (national security), near-sighted strategies, poor execution, and lack of talents. Therefore, it is a good news that China is spending trillions of dollars for the benefits of the world.
I m 61, I used to change my mobile phone every year for their newest features. I haven't changed to a new phone for three years now because there are no real breakthroughs in their cameras and speed, and these days my friends mostly buy China phones because they cost 30% of an IPhone or a Samsung, still have 90% of the latest features
Incentives? Without the Chinese market, they don't have a business case for their investments. They are forced to sit on their butts to watch Chinese chip makers zoom far ahead.
Exactly
don't tell that to the biggest consumer market in the world. they think they are the ONLY market
Someone didn't game that one out very well eh? Oh it was Donald Trump you say? Well he never games anything out except if it benefits him.
This is NO SURPRISE. BCG predicted that China would be forced to develop, when China was previously perfectly happy to buy reasonably-priced chips and tools, rather than investing vast amounts of time and capital to develop their own. This is the exact same situation that is driving China to becoming a competitor in commercial aircraft and advanced military equipment.
China has its own space station all thanks to the US . 😂
@@jessicayoung1190 Also their own nukes and satnav (Beidou).
I wonder how much did BCG charge for that pearl of wisdom..
Being forced to develop doesn't always lead to success. Having the right leaders make a huge difference.
and space station
China built the space station all by itself. China retrieved soils from the "far side" of the moon. So, what could be more difficult?
Yea that far side of the moon return of sample is something the USA has not done
More difficult is going to mars and landing a rover there. China did that
@
The Chinese are already planning to mine the far side of the moon for Helium-3
Which will power fusion reactors and power the space ships to explore the rest solar system, galaxy and universe
As that Helium-3 on the moon is expected to power the world for 10,000 years
To me that is a smarter move
Even if humanity decides to eventually inhabit Mars
We will need the fuel to get us there and beyond
@@peanut0brainOn first attempt ! Neither the ESA or Russia have successfully landed a rover on Mars.
There is something more difficult - Getting American politicians to truly understand geopolitics and do something that actually benefit Americans.
Thank you Kevin for your content ...I wait for it day by day ...
You run the best channel, bar none, on TH-cam related to China's business and economy. Happy New Year, Kevin! Keep up the good work!
It's simple, without the market for those advanced chips, research and development will regress, which is dependent on revenue from chip sales. At the same time, Chinese semiconductor companies will only get better, because they can supply Chinese companies, and they are also getting subsidies from the government.
These Chinese chips can supply Chinese companies that make computers, smartphones, electronics, SBCs, industrial computers, network equipment, etc. As time goes by, Chinese chip companies will grow, while US chip companies will stagnate.
What us chip companies !
US Tech gets insane amounts of subsidies although those go mainly to CEO bonuses.
Thankyou for your AMAZING commentaries during this last year, Kevin.
Have a GREAT 2025!
Blessings from Australia...❤
straight no chaser, you might just be the best reporter I know, thanks
Try Alex ,the young one at the Duran ....post most days ...
He is not a reporter. If I am not mistaken he works in China in the financial industry
@@johnyossarian9059 Doesn't matter. The "reporters" of the main stream media in the USA do not report these at all and Ursula von der Leyen still manages to convinced Europe that Russia is using chips from old washing machines. An amazing achievement in building Hypersonic missiles.
Americans prefer to focus on the form and not the substance.
In case people missed it, increasing number of countries no longer have any respect for America and their media.
He also was a soldier
@@Ged-v8iwhats the channel name please?
When you have 10x the number of engineers in their twenties and thirties tackling the problem why would anyone think otherwise...
Taught real science. Am sure they know what a male and female is verses our educated college students
"Why China is winning the chips race: materials, markets, money, and Moore's Law"
Don't forget: (wo)men.
Seven out of 10 largest semiconductor companies have CEOs, or CTOs who are Chinese or ethnic Chinese. Not to mention 70% plus of all the chip engineers are East Asians.
weird way of spelling 'people'
Chinese are simply smarter
This is like blaming the failures of Western companies on their Indian CEOS and diversity hires. It's not race or gender, it's ability and competence.
@@brauljo. 我wǒ们mén: is Chinese for “we”.
Get woke go broke 😊
Truly appreciate your updates on technology, I’ve got more admiration for the Chinese educational system.
Chinese are very smart. Who knew...
LOL!
@@henriettasecker-shaoIt is good for you to be able to laugh at yourself, to reflect your own naivety and wicked state of mind.
AMD was on the ropes a few years ago and was saved by a deal with a mainland company. The big advantage that AMD developed (jointly with the mainland company) was packaging multiple chips in one package. Not only did it save AMD from bankruptcy, it made AMD beat Intel. This means mainland China shares the best packaging technology with AMD.
And I bet I am the only one in the comment section actually used this AMD-China collaboration chip in a production setting 😊
Can I have more information about this?
@@StephenYuan it’s in the technology news at the time. When the current CEO took over a few+ years ago. AMD was floundering and the deal she made provided cash to keep going and bring to market their chip module. The modules made technical & production & performance sense for a lot of reasons. I don’t know which mainland company and how they split up the module design and production effort. AMD designed the circuits and i believe TSMC fabbed the chips for inside the module.
@@StephenYuan
It is essentially an AMD Epyc chip with (for some reason) a much slower clock speed. We actually liked the fact that it is practically identical to AMD Epyc, as we were using CentOS/Redhat Linux and we really don't want anything weird that effect the application performance.
Of course, upon close inspection, the Chinese chip had a sightly different behavior, such as different core had a different i/o speed thus effect the storage performance we were trying to push, thus we had to adjust our software accordingly.
Our client was somewhat embarrassed that they provided this made-in-China CPU server for us to test. But for us, it wasn't a big deal because our software were not CPU bounded, and that their application was more GPU dependent than CPU. Thus, it was a good time for the Chinese to do their own x64 CPU.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMD%E2%80%93Chinese_joint_venture
Ceo of AMD and NVDIA are cousin and chinese immigrants
Wonderful channel. Congrats.
Kevin have a great new year and my deep appreciation for your straight shooting and unbiased honesty. Not forgetting the great and comprehensive research you put in to enlighten us. 😊The reason why I've never missed a single one of your broadcast and look forward to a new one everyday. Thank you and God bless you, sir.
Technology finally returns to the hand of civilization.
Raimonda, in her recent interviews, said the sanctions and blockades have failed, and that she hopes Trump will not cut back on the Chips Act because the investment is more effective in strengthening the US than sanctioning China. OMG, she finally sees the light. But it is too late.
On a side note, the US needs to reform its government structure. How can a short-term 4-year cycle manage any long-term strategies?
4 year cycle is called democracy.
It’s just easier to correct our (American voters) shortsightedness. Although even that is not stopping it.
@@ez3422 Is that what it means. Thanks, now it makes sense why everything is messed up.
其实你们大多数政客一开始就知道会失败但是不能这么实施你知道为什么吗 因为你说的政府连续性太低 为了让自己的党派在下次选举中获得优势 需要一些能在本党派任期中快速体现政绩的方法 制裁就是很快体现的方法
@@darlenecannon2873 most people are shortsightedness. How can you expect those short sightedness voters select someone who has longterm vision?
Informative channel. Unbiased . Great
The next innovation is photonic semiconductors. And you know already who is in the leading position in the photonic R&D.
Your drone footages of China at the end of every video, shows a Chima I didnt know existed. So advanced!!!
That's nothing. If at all possible, visit, and see how 1.4 billion people are living every day. Then you will see how China is a leading and developing country at the same time. Chinese GDP per person is about the same as Mexico - but it's like they live in different worlds.
Take a trip to see for yourself, it will detox all the nonsense you have heard about China.
Another outstanding and stimulating report. Who ever is advising the politicians to slap tariffs and bans on Chinese products really does not know economics. Kunming has magnificent golf courses. Cheers and keep up the great work in 2025.
The precise and clear way you deliver the information is fluid and resonating! My favourite business channel!!
I really enjoy your videos: no fancy unrelated images, plain facts and straight to the points. Really a good job, please go on!
3D chip packaging is actually invented by the chinese, basically stacking them top and bottom on the die. chiplets is also invented by the chinese. Big core and small core is also by the chinese. the recent huawei kirin chip is actually having more transistors and chips build on the same package, equivalent to a 3.5nm level
History is repeating itself in the EV sector. The US and EU blames Chinese subsidies, ignoring the fact that they too subsidize these sectors. The big difference is where the funding comes from. China has a total trade surplus of $1 trillion, the US has a trade deficit of about $850 billion. China can afford more deficit spending because of its huge trade surplus and it has the STEM mampower to implement its technology rise.
The US isn't sanctioning an early state EV industry. China's EV industry is fully developed, and has almost no dependency on US tech. The delay in allowing LEAP 1-C engines to be sold to COMAC for the C919 narrowbody jetliner is closer, as it led to a 2 year delay.
I am sitting back and watching the federal and provincial governments paying 18 billion dollars each for foreign car companies to build EV , while Chinese EV companies come into Brazil and Mexico and spend 1.5 billion . The Chinese companies are already taken over Ford plant and started building EV in Brazil and sells are up , because they also put infrastructure in .
Politicians in the West are not elected for their smarts , but their ability to talk .
@@kamlee4010 talk, talk, talk, this is the thing I realised it started from a very young age while living overseas for many years. Kids are good at talking and very talkative from a young age... I remember teachers deemed it negative when seeing Asian kids are quite (not to express themselves). In the workplace, Asians are quite and focus, locals are coming to chat and work. Scientists and researchers are never talkative, but Trump can host a talk show every time at stage...(did you see Mr Xi ever talked like that, Chinese leaders sit together and loudly debate?...)
@@SAL-zg7xd ， quiet.
@@etbuch4873 that's right, wrong typing, quiet.
China #1👍💪💪💪💪
And you need a lot of electricity to run these chips to do what they are supposed to do. China uses more electricity per person than either the EU or the US combined. And China also generate more electricity and at lower rate than EU or the US.
And increasingly trying to generate these with environmentally friendly technology. Really hate the win-lose competitive mindset that stops us from benefitting from these tech advancements in the West. We'd all progress much faster together.
Nonsense. Iceland is the winner of that statistic by a mile at 51,300 KWH/Year per capita. Norway is second at 24,200 KWH/Year per capita. China per capita/year usage is 5,500 KWH. USA is 11,300.
Are you sure China has a larger electricity usage per capita than the US and EU. I doubt that.
@@bobsmith3983 China population is 4 times of the USA. That means China generate at least double of the USA. 26% of US electricity is for industrial sector. 58% of electricity in China is consumed by industries. And the rate is much cheaper in China. So there is no competition at all consider large amount of cheap electricity China can generate for its industrial sector. US, Norway or Iceland won't even come close in scale and cost even if China is running its computing with less advance chips.
@@TAL142 The metric that should be used is consumption per capita not total consumption.
Brilliant overview as usual. Kevin is unquestionably the best commentator / journalist on the Internet. Happy New Year and thanks for your insightful and intelligent reporting!
Chinese don’t waste money on fighting wars.
... and elections.
..and sanctions it self😅
Best question-how will companies make their money back if they can’t sell to China? This is a question that does not get considered in boardrooms across many industries but should be almost top of the list.
If Moore's Law improvements have entered the phase of diminishing returns, then the next steps will be driven by innovation across the entire manufacturing spectrum: in addition to repackaging, improvements will come from new materials (diamond substrates for chips), new technologies (photonics), new approaches (nanotech, biocomputing), as well as unexpected and unpredictable benefits from basic research. We should not forget optimization of the software that runs on those chips. All of those things are enabled by investment and education. The wealth and education of America and the Western world have created leadership in in innovation for the last several centuries, but as economic development and education ramps up in the BRICS countries and the Third World, a more level playing field is starting to develop which opens the door to a new reality.
Here are the differences between our politicians and Chinese politicians: Our politicians went to school to learn how to debate (it means how to lie), and Chinese politicians went to school to learn science and engineering (it means how to build). Who do you think will win the competition, if you want to judge.
90% of US politicians are lawyers. They are expert at manipulating the system, playing games with the rules (i.e. sanctions), and deciding which parties and football games they will attend. Many are also racist (i.e. "stupid, slanted eyed, Chinamen can't be allowed to be better than us...") and ignorant. Be careful, they want nuclear war to stop China. 90% of Chinese politicians are engineers as you said. They are expert at "we can do better" in the face of competition. American here. I'm warning you all about the idiots, racists, and war criminals that lead the US.
Not really that true. The main difference between China and the US is that all of the think tanks and analysts in the US truly believe that ONLY the west can develop new technologies or even figure out advanced equipment. This is true with the whole world. The US believes they have all of the best and smartest people when that hasn’t been true for over 2 decades.
China is also using less and producing more with AI projects like DeepSeek-V3, which is an open source MoE that's better than GPT-4o at one tenth the price...👀
Thanks again for all your hard work!
Peace and Happy New Year!! 🎉🥳 🎊
Happy New Year. Thanks for sharing. We'll done. 🙏👏👍💯🌹🔊🇨🇳
Thank u from 🇯🇲 Jamaica Kevin u the best journalist in the with little are no bias keep up the good work
How can anyone "ban" physics and chemistry? As ASML Chief said, the "laws of physics" are the same for everybody. China will be able to master these rules faster and better.
Great work Kevin. Your channel, I believe, is the only one in U Tube that's not yapping this and that without backup information....and most impressively, you are willing to stand up and apologise for your occasional mistakes. Happy New Year ❤❤
If US and Europe aren’t going into manufacturing I think they shouldn’t worry about geopolitics. Without manufacturing they’ll be forgotten very quickly.
What Japan was unable to do 40 years ago, China will.
China isn’t a US colony
Your reporting is OUTSTANDING !!!! 1st Class …. Thank you…
This is very, very good. Not only for China, but for all countries in their development.
The rise of China, Russia, Iran and other countries are forcing the The Western Hegemony to redefine themselves. This is also a bonus effect.
It is not just the level of investment, it is also the availability of very well-educated STEM Graduates to provide the innovative workforce. Combine this with a fully vertically - integrated manufacturing ecosystem, and it is hard to see how China could NOT succeed in the areas where it has, and will become global leader in a very short time.
Kevin is the most brilliant, knowledgeable, yet humble blogger I have met on TH-cam. I am totally amazed by his intelligence and reasoning.
Remember that a billion dollars can go much further in China than in the US
Thanks again KEVIN you are absolutely 💯 the best CHINA analyst
He has an advantage over the so called China experts..... He is actually in China.
Thanks Kevin, your channel is the best place for getting the facts without hype or fud.
If the smallest chip invested by US, Japan, South Korea cannot sell to China then it's recommended they cook up a recipe to eat it.
it is not about the money they spent .. usa spent billions.. but mostly goes to stock pumping
And bailouts.
Huawei and SMIC have the skills and knowledge in making 5nm or less if they have access to newest EUV! Given China a few years, she will able produce EUV machine. It might not be advance as ASML first but certainly help them in chip war.
China is one of the leading in chip packaging
Search AMD buy Chinese firms on chip packaging and give x86 license to that company in return
This is why Commerce Secretary Raimondo said that sanctioning Chinese Chips making is a " Fools Errand ".
"Be good" in 2025 "Gong hei fat choy" Kevin, stay safe.
29 more days.
Market should be the king. Thank you for the information.
Thanks for the years’ reporting, I am sure you will continue to give us the best for the coming yers.
Damn Kevin....I thought for sure Santa Claus would bring you at least a couple of razors this year.
I'm waiting to hear news about China finding another base material that can allow much faster operational speed without resorting to reducing the size of transistors to below 2nm.
News channel of the Year, Thank you kev for everything, we appreciate you, 🙏🏽
In 2004 our leaders were bombing iraq while china was busy building its infrastructure and investing in Education and RnD
In 2024 our leaders are talking about bombing Iran and fighting over pronouns while china is leading the world in science and technology.
We already spent 20 years heading in the wrong direction, i fear we, too, will have a 100 year of humiliation.
💔 🇺🇸
Also $1b in China goes a longer way than the same amount in the US
From Brazil, congratulations for the best channel. Your message model is perfect, short and effective. I don't miss a video of yours, wishing you a splendid 2025, following the same perfection. Hugs
I think China will make some spectacular breakthroughs in the next few years, whether it be in packaging, programming, lithography (SSMB manufacture) or new types of chips (photon, etc). It will totally dominate the legacy chips and then go on to take half of the market for premium chips.
China won’t give up now until it owns most of the markets.
You knocked-it out of the park. I can imagine you asking your friends a whole bunch of questions about this stuff and you asked good questions. And compiled quite the compendium, here, for the non-anointed. Great-job!
Kevin, thank you for another excellent report. Happy new year.
Happy New year ! Best Channel on TH-cam by Far . God bless !
I find it amusing that in certain crowds, the reflexive response to this whole China thing is that 'they don't have basic science' - don't come up with the 'big ideas'. What they don't understand is that Ideas are cheap. Engineering is hard. Experience (extracting, processing, manufacturing) is fundamental to building iterative engineering know-how. Sometimes the chinese workarounds are somewhat kludgy, but they work. May not be the 'bestest', nor 'most optimal', but they get the job done instead of winning awards from some magazine or blog.
So true. In startup land too. People think coming up with ideas is the brilliant part. Those genius ideas are rare. And without capability to execute well they're just pipe dreams. We overvalue dreams in the West & undervalue the drudge work required to realise those dreams.
The Chinese put out more peer reviewed scientific papers and are granted more patents than the USA by a mile and growing.
it's just a racist way of talk to put down other's achievements👿
Always informative..well done thank you.😮
Well said.
Thanks for the video and happy new year.
A manufacturing power house with a low cost base, a big home market and therefore potential export market is a formidable opponent. How the West wish that it's 1900 when it can just sail 2 warships over to sort things out the international rule based way.
Kevin, thanks for the update that China is well in the microchip development. 👍👍👍
Great work Kevin. Thanks and Happy 2025.
But israel needs more money 😥😥😥
best answer in this comment section
They turned China from their biggest customer to their biggest competitor.
Thanks Obama!
No! Thanks Trump and Biden!
Nothing to do with Obama Johnny! He didn't start the trade war.
Thank you for all the information you hve provided, may you continue with lots of success in to 2025 . All the best from UK
Happy new year to you 🎉🎉
Brutal but honest, thanks Kevin!
"ai experts believe generative AI only possible with 4nm chips and smaller"
Deepseek v3:
Heres a model we built on inferior chip sets that outperform GPT-o4 and costs 88% less to run, trained for 95% lower cost.
Great video!
Will the incoming U.S. presidential administration have the understanding and focus to realize that international mutual cooperation with Russia and China is the most beneficial path forward forward for our country? So far many of its cabinet and ambassador choices are not promising in this regard.
US is providing great incentives to China to be self reliant on Semi conductor industries. Punishments are not always bad. It would be wise if US also focuses in maintaining the lead rather than slowing itself to block China from overtaking.
Someone needs to show this to jimmy dore and co. They don't seem to get it.
Ha ha true , Jimmy and his gang got a big blind spot on China.
Wishing you a healthy, joyful 2025. Keep up the good work.
Happy new year to Kevin and every。Wished you have the best year to come🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉❤❤❤❤❤❤