The optimism bias | Tali Sharot
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 10 ก.ย. 2024
- www.ted.com Are we born to be optimistic, rather than realistic? Tali Sharot shares new research that suggests our brains are wired to look on the bright side -- and how that can be both dangerous and beneficial.
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In conclusion; hope for the best while preparing for the worst.
No.
Kevin Smith Why no?
Agreed
Thank you, was a bit lazy to watch the whole video 😂
Don't remember who said this but I completely agree with this
Dear optimists, pessimists, and realists,
While you were all arguing over the glass of water, I just drank it.
Sincerely,
an opportunist.
I’m amazed by how does she build so many persuasive arguments in her speeches, regardless of the main topic
In the kiss from a celebrity experiment, I don't think people paid more for the anticipation alone. They might have wanted time to get ready, to shop and make themselves look the best, hence 3 days.
Beautiful. Well spoken. Pointed and well articulated points. AND she is spreading the idea of understanding biases and optimism? I think I'm in love. We need more people spreading these ideas. Life is what you make of it and Happiness is yours if you'll have it. :)
Indeed, she has it all 😊
I have just finished Martin Seligman's book about Learned Optimism, which was of a huge benefit for me. And now I'm here looking for more related to optimism as I am voracious learner.
Someone get that girl some water!!!
Did she seem thirsty?
"That's the news from Lake Wobegon, where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average." -- Garrison Keillor
this topic is more relevant than ever! people think that they will not get infected and everything will be fine
You love to hear that the only way you can be happy is by lying to yourself about yourself and reality... isn't that somewhat disturbing? As she said, anyone with a realistic outlook will be slightly depressed. I prefer slight depression and clarity than delusion and happiness. Not that I have a choice though.
Muchas gracias, lo estoy probando con personas para corroborar sus afirmaciones, no por que no te crea, sino por intentar conocer mas y en distinto tipo de clases, etnias, mixes, etc. Saludos
Finding a balance between high-expectatoins for future and perparation for safeguard might be a suggested attitude within the whole of life to maximumly achieve happiness and satisfaction.
So, when I got to 7:00.
"I don't care if Monday's blue,
Tuesday grey and Wednesday too,
Thursday, I don't care about you,
its Friday, I'm in love!"
So that's why that song's so damn catchy.
Being optimistic must be separated from being just oblivious.
She talks about optimism centered to the individual. I am optimistic about humanity, especially after listening to Jason Silva, and reading a bit about the ''Rational optimism'' by Matt Ridley. Things have NEVER been as good for humanity as they are now. But, when it comes to individuals and how they view the chances of them getting, for example, a cancer, they can be quite illusory. But the truth is, that the future is bright for humanity. Moore's law!
I love her -- intelligence, accent and appearance. A complete package
Optimism is one of the basic survival needs a long with food, water and shelter. Ppl are largely myopic, short-sighted, basic and ordinary. This absolute awareness would destroy them. If everyone could truly see how they are and the potential that yields society would buckle. Ppl need to believe in better as their inherent nature is inadequacy and disposable.
Take a pigeon. It is unaware of the nature of its plight. It slaves itself for food every day in constant competition and dies. Ppl really arent that far from the pigeons plight but it's the pigeon-like belief that the next moment, the next bite, the thing will bring it one step closer to happiness. Sad.
I'm here! 2022 and good to be informed about optimism bias.
Fascinating lecture, thank you.
The entire video can be summed up as: “If you tell someone something, it might make them think about it”
Very lucky to have learned about the psychology of optimism, even though it's been around for 11 years.
Great job Tali...
As long as you as an individual... can convince yourself that in order to move forward as best you can you have to be optimistic, you can be described as 'one of the faithful,' one of those people who can say, 'Well, look, something's going to happen! Let's just keep trying. Let's not give up.
To that device that takes out the optimism, all I can say is "Expecto Patronum" (sorry, but I had to make this joke...)
Lol
This is the reason objective testing is incredibly important. Or the equivalent: True, unbiased friends.
Why guess when you can NOT?
Tali did an outstanding job in her presentation. As a member of an Optimist club for over twenty years, I would have to say that Optimism is not a negative trait, rather it can transform an ordinary existence into beautiful art. Expect the best always!
Wow she`s very pretty, and it was a good ted talk! Alot of notes to take.
Optimistic Penguins, now there's a band name.
DanteDarcangelo Pessimistic Penguins
The thing about sunday is, yeah, it sucks, but as Sunday evening turns to Sunday night, you will notice that everything you do is much more enjoyable than normal. and the closer you get to falling asleep on sunday night, the better everything feels. Watching a "Growing Pains" marathon alone on friday or saturday = borderline suicidal. watching it alone from sunday night at 10 until monday morning at 4 = a religious experience
Wonderful speech but I'd like to add that few things are more self-destructive than a combination of high entitlement and a lazy work ethic.
And that are characteristics that optimistic people tend to have.
No, she says very clearly, BRING a parachute. Embrace your cognitive illusions INTELLIGENTLY. Plan. Then believe.
Super interesting. Does anyone find it creepy that its possible to disable a region of the brain just like that?
I was optimistic this entire talk that her top would fall off. It didn't work...
I know, pigish, but it had to be said and I am happy to take one for the team every so often. Braces for email explosion... and reflects on hitting the post button...
I wouldnt say having high expectations is necessarily better. You constantly strive for more and more
Like opening up more of your own stores?
Am I the only one who heard "kuh knowledge"?
She said "acknowledged".
Knolledge
It is not at all surprising that saturday comes first then friday, then sunday.
People love friday because it usually is less work and you can already party and relax in the evening, knowing that the next day will be free. Saturday is even better: You can get up as late as you want, you don't have to work, AND you feel extremely happy abut the fact that sunday is coming. Sunday is a terrible day because you will have to go to bed early and you can't party because you have to get up early.
So, while you don't actually have to work on sunday, you can't actually use sunday to relax and entertain yourself like you can do on friday.
Common mis-definition of optimism: it doesn't mean evaluation excluding negativities, it means making the "optimum" choice, and/or the optimum relevant evidence to consider. Etc.
Anything can be a science so long as it can be subjected to the scientific method. The only difference between the physics as a science and psychology as a science, is that one is more complex than the other and thus is more variable when measured.
I'm more than happy to leave my rose coloured spectacles on, because impacting someone's belief with the negative to me isn't a good idea, when placebo and nocebo studies demonstrate the power of belief. Seems to me systems in the world want everyone to look on the dark side or expect the worse, yet its clearly stated the expectation is a relevant aspect of the result you will experience. I'll remain in my optimistic bias mind set and remain happy thank you. I personally think science shoukd concentrate more on interfering with individuals levels of pessimism as that's been related to depression and depression is correlated with lower quality of life and reduced life span. The fact science seems to be doing the opposite makes it seem like science is being manipulated to reduce the population.
Pessimism is better optimism in my experience
@Samurai you do realise there are scientific studies that show pessimists have shorter life span than optimists and more health concerns?
She should have watched the TED talk on anti-angiogenesis. You can control your odds of getting cancer through diet. It's not some random occurrence. If I'm eating foods that prevent cancer daily, then my odds of getting cancer are much lower than the norm. The optimism is completely merited.
I think she should make a point between been positive and being optimistic. It is, if you are optimistic you are likely to set up high expectations and get dissapointed...more often, as she pointed. Nevertheless if you are positive, in a sense, you are able to foresee the bad as well as good things, although you think about it in a positive way, or tend to look mostly at the positive's.
I think we might be confusing optimism with being stupid. Thinking positively does not mean thinking ignorantly.
The last picture is so great
Optimistic attitude, supported by hormonal system, is an evolutionary trait which masks the fact that we do not have control over our lives. At least not in a direct and individual sense as we were taught and thus like to believe.
Its a sort of anesthetic for reality.
Optimism of an individual does change reality directly but indirectly through network dynamics of many individuals.
While optimism seems to generally produce better results, realism is important in questions where people's lives are at stake, e.g. when designing a bridge or assessing whether or not an airplane is safe to fly.
great presentation, thank you :)
Because repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation is not "magnet therapy". Strapping DC magnets to your body is completely different to powerful pulsed fields applied directly over the CNS. Although I'll admit it is nearly as difficult to produce double-blind studies of both, for obvious reasons.
Her example of marriage was just bad. Of course people go in with the estimate that their marriage is going to last and NOT end up in divorce, that's the whole point of getting married in the first place. If you didn't think that was going to be the case, you simply wouldn't marry the person. Why waste the time?
Great talk indeed. I will try to maintain my optimism and realism as well :)
ok, so if stimulating the brain regions responsible for the optimism bias makes a person more (unrealistic) optimistic, then why don't we use that in therapy to treat symptoms of depression and other mood disorders? If the claims she makes actually work, then could this also mean that a 30 minutes session could help a depressed person to look at the current situation more positively which might correct his dysfunctional beliefs? And if so, wouldn't this in combination with cognitive behavioral therapy be the ultimate form of therapy? Change the way we prescribe medication for mood related disorders?
Sorry I took so long to respond. It's a really interesting book, and she goes into way more detail in the book about how our brains process memories and how that alters our perception of the past and future. If you like psychology and neuroscience, I would recommend it..
I really like the thoughts shared here. However instead of always striving for knowledge I would suggests just trying to live in balance.
Frank Brown Just have more of an expectation than a defenseA.K.A- Look to the positive side than the future
Beautiful insight. So is it better to be slightly pessimistic? Any thoughts guys?
My life is a pointless cycle of addictive need fulfillment dotted by terror and pain that will end in demoralizing and degrading terror and pain… Wow she’s right, I feel much worse.
Humans tend to prefer the biases of emotion to the conclusions of reason. This is the optimism bias. It's a major problem and conundrum.
I use it at my 12 step meetings, and I have more clean time than most of the others. Social variables of optimism in the context of algebra problems, gee what do I know. Solve for the unknown.
Whoever is wise in heart is called inteligent, and the sweetness of his lips will increase knowledge.
We need to have a lot more people being optimistic on the economy.
FYI your subscribe annotation link isn't working
15:28 KNOWLEDGE!!!
This isn't about optimism. It's about false beliefs about yourself.
I for one don't think I'm better than anyone else, but I am optimistic about life.
I have depression and I am astounded to learn normal people live under such an oppressive delusion. J/k
I'd rather be a pessimist because then I can only be pleasantly surprised~.
Ben Franklin
Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.
Western culture and Non Western cultures. LOL.
Amii Amor Your first sentence made my head hurt a littlebit :D Anyhow, I think he wanted to emphasize the weirdness of the notion of dividing all the world's cultures into "western" and "non-western". It's like saying there are blonde people and non-blonde people. It is totally strange, but if you think about it, the western world does have this kind of egocentric view of the world as in there's us and not us. Hope I cleared it up, and also hope that this actually was what OP meant to say.
Amii Amor I agree with bluebird. He's highlighting how the West is the automatic point of reference for the rest of the world, as if it is at the center of everything
Optomistic is purchasing a home that needs some work when i purchased a house that needs to be completely renovated, after 4 year work on the house and 3 more years to go i understand the subject
Yep, that's pretty much what I learned from this talk too
The problem with looking at averages is that it doesn't allow for differences between categories. If we all gave the answer that our marriage is likely to collapse by 30 % which the true statistical one we could be in danger of being overly pessimistic in that we have no way of knowing if that specific marriage is likely to fail and if the marriage doesn't break up then we have lowered our expectations to the detriment of further success
I may have an optimism bias, but it doesn't seem very strong. If you ask me whether I'll win a race tomorrow, I'll say "Ask me again after the race." In college I'd tell you others might be smarter than me, but I can do well because I'll study hard. I'd always be surprised when I do better than others. I know my flaws, and know how hard it is to run smart and fast or learn something new, or think on my feet, so why bet in my favor just because others also have difficulties?
Your question shows that optimism and pessimism aren't strong concepts that can stregthen any theory. Beneath their simplicity class differences are concealed; rich are more optimist because objectively (thanks to structure, wall street, fox tv whatever) they will be successful in the future. Poor are usually more pessimist because they are the ones that burden economic crises, insecure working conditions etc. So, rather than taking optimism - pessimism duality seriously, let the rich die :D
I'm pretty sure that the divorce rate she quoted is wrong. The best data I've seen suggests that the divorce rate peaked at around 40% in about 1979, but has since then dropped to 20-25%.
Most people preferring Friday to Sunday does not prove a preference for anticipation. On Sundays many people have to get up early for church, many businesses that serve to entertain us are closed, and those who needs to wake up early for work on Monday know that they must go to bed early in order to be ready.
What evidence there is for the direction of the relationships discussed, as they often include the possibility of being either or both, contrary to what she stated? For example she practically stated that if we are pessimistic we will be slightly depressed, rather than if we are depressed we will be pessimistic. I think the latter makes more sense given that we are able to simulate different modes of thinking without mood changes, but cannot incur mood changes without changes in thinking.
She is gonna have a discussion with Barry Schwartz (talk choice paradox) on whether the key to happiness is high or low expectations.
A very interesting talk that inspires self reflection. Thank you, Tali.
On another note, she looks absolutely stunning in that dress. Does anyone have any clue who the designer is?
That is an important distinction.
And in matters of policy. I fear we are a species perfectly capable of optimistically ignoring problems until they become either unsolveable or at least have much more serious impact than might otherwise have been the case. Fresh water, growth (population size and per-capita), pollution, exploitation of rain forest, oil, minerals... all the really big challenges we are facing, yet doing so far very little to tackle.
"yes smoking kills but it kills the other guy" that sounds like every smoker I have ever spoken to,
well explained, thanks!
Seriously though, great talk. Solute be seen by all of the Western world
Nooo, she's saying that optimists normally don't partake in contingency planning, but they SHOULD so they don't "free fall off of the cliff," so to speak. She's trying show what a good balance would be in order to have the highest chance of success. Maybe you should re-watch that part.
This isn't official or anything, but I've noticed most TED talks have about a 5% dislike percentage. Is that unusual in any way? Think it's the same people over and over?
Wutzthedeal I wonder... Such haters!
+Wutzthedeal pessimistic people did it
“I am an Optimist. It doesn’t seem too much use of being anything else”
- Winston Churchill
Optimist, racist and imperialist
Regarding the kiss, the optimist has three days to look forward to the kiss, but also has to suffer from anxiety of whether they will achieve a long lasting impression on the celebrity, whereas the pessimist would be pleasantly surprised by the gesture and wouldn't care if it's a bad kiss or not because they weren't expecting it anyway. How could this escape her?
Unless you're insinuating that every optimist doesn't get nervous over something like this, everyone gets anxiety. I find it hard to believe that optimists never have a single doubt in their mind about themselves. That doesn't have anything to do with optimism or pessimism, that's just common emotion. But if you believe they don't, then we'll have to agree to disagree.
Only way having high expectations all the time comes with happiness is when you do nothing to meet those expectations, which is probably most people.
Magnet therapy levels the playing field between optimism and pessimism. They simply balanced the participants moods with magnets. Why do people keep insisting that magnet therapy is pseodoscience still with all these new studies?
Are we more hopeful or optimistic? Do we actually believe as realistic futures our hopeful predictions?
One important point never came up: Even if optimism bias is good individually, aren't there some potentially serious dangers collectively? I'm thinking of things like happily using every drop of oil accumulated over millions of years in a matter of centuries and doubling the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere, while perhaps not quite taking in what we know and simply assuming it'll all work out somehow?
This is utter .
It's like Einstein said we are what we imagine but this is an imagined problem. And notice she used penguins, humans in suits and she focused a lot on negative aspects of one aspect of a specific but not ultimately correct method of life which is current sociological city life. She exemplifies ego and a drive to observe fictitious phenomenon of human behaviour. Like it's so easily explained away, she gave one example of what 'some people'(?!) say happiness is.
Kisses from celebrities. . . Friday nights, smoking and cancer ¬.¬ I mean the students must be deeep rooted in the system ;P:)
LOVED the pessimistic penguin's priorities, but I'd like to hear his philosophies.
She's talking about entropic mind and Creative mind, its heavy stuff, good effort.
tfpl x♥
+Jacob Hancock I agree with you to an extent because you are looking at the whole picture instead of what she's been specifically saying about what we think. By the end she was going on about the "general" consensus of what people usually believe which is questionable, but she did however quickly talk about pessimistic bias of the negative people and positive optomistic people
+Jacob Hancock at the beginning of the vid
Optimisum can come from normalising our breathing in the direction of reduction. Switch off the flight or fright response were fear will drive our life.
This seems to be creating a lot of boxes when you create boxes people start thinking... which am I like what am I like... what am I doing... ya ya. I call this the authority person who looks hot and smart obviously knows better from my own experiences and rather than thinking back through there life and working out what they think and what they do they start boxing there mind. No person is set way. You control your destiny it's all how you perceive things and what you do and not seeing failure.
My exact thoughts.
But the pessimist wouldn't have anxiety over it BECAUSE it's over now and they wouldn't have to worry about it for three days. It's the anticipation itself that creates that anxiety. Thus a pessimist wouldn't have it, an optimist would.
Hey, mate. Have you read the book? Do you recommend it? :)
Specificity is an undoing for most principles which is a minor point ...
But too many of those penguins think that the way to prove penguins can fly is to push other ones off the cliff. They're optimistic, but they're not so optimistic that they're willing to take the risk themselves, or by themselves.
A good example could be a couple. The probability that one of the partner cheats on the other is x% and thereby they should be worried, same stands for divorce rate etc. However the future is uncertain, so no one ensures that x% is going to affect the relationship.Being positive does not help you avoid the bad situation but allows you to enjoy while the occurence has not happened yet.
Saturday is better just because you can wake up late and stay up late
I would like to know if a control group was created to test for placebo effect of the magnetic instrument (a group in which the participant was told he was having a magnet moved around his head with the same type of device that had no magnets in it). I hope so, because if not, that's some shoddy science.
Wutzthedeal fully agree.
It's pretty common procedure, in experiments with TMS machines, to have a control group, so they probably did. They just often don't mention it in overviews like this, especially since it's so expected
Success in academia or business does not necessarily result in happiness. Optimism bias may help us get that promotion, but that doesn't mean we're happy.