I've got a few more good years in me… How do you feel about learning that computers can accurately predict your death and have been doing so for years? Let me know in the comments!
i got the 2nd reply ill edit it to answer the question when i watch the video :)) *EDIT:* Bruh it was all because the insurance people wanted more money 💀
I'd be a lot happier if it was used for our benefit and not so insurance companies had a nice a excuse to jack up insurance premiums. One thing I'm glad of is that the UK hasn't had people go bankrupt because of medical costs, as much as our current government are trying get this through.
🎼Shame on us, doomed from the start May god have mercy on our dirty little hearts Shame on us for all we have done And all we ever were, just zeroes and ones....
Well, mental status could be predicted. Evidence of depression and possible self-harming behaviors could be determined through examination of your medical stats. The actuaries at your insurance company, even if they don't see your medical record (and I'm not sure that they don't), have access to your billing. On anti-depressants? That'll show up. Seeing a psychiatrist? That'll show up, too. But even if it's a "random" nihilist action, that might be predictable through the TH-cam, TikTok, Instagram videos you watch. Going completely off the grid is not easy.
I actually saw an Instagram comment the other week on one of Hank's videos asking him why he changed the name of his youtube channel from 'It's Ok to Be Smart' to 'Be Smart' xD
There always will be bias because somebody will decide what data to record. If favourite colour is important and nobody writes it down, it will be missed - and other (combinations of) factors will be found, thinking that will be enough. The problem with computers is that they can't be curious about types of data they don't have. They can't ask their subjects new and surprising questions, opening new ways of thinking.
I think a follow up video exploring which factors are most predictive of long life is in order. What are factors people tend to over value? What are factors that marketers over emphasize? How important is family medical history vs country of residence? I think there are many more interesting angles to approach the subject from.
How rich are you and how long did your parents live... I'd bet those are the most predictive factors by an AU or two. Wealth plays into so many other important factors (health, schooling, neighborhood, food abundance, stress, country). Now what I'd be curious about -- what factors under your control have an impact greater than 5 years?
pre-watch comment: i mean.. actuaries have been doing essentially this for forever... with the added part of BETTING when you will die, it is the definition of life insurance. post-watch comment: yup
No, actuaries have been estimating life expectancies for groups/cohorts of people, not individuals. Surely? It's more like predicting cancers given X level of exposure to Y radiation in a population? You can pretty accurately predict a rate of cancer but you can't say which individuals within the population will succumb. "During the 17th century, a more scientific basis for risk management was being developed. In 1662, a London draper named John Graunt showed that there were predictable patterns of longevity and death in a defined group, or cohort, of people, despite the uncertainty about the future longevity or mortality of any one individual."
@@CurtOntheRadio if you are part of the given group, it is a prediction of you as an individual in that group. the issue is only specificity of the data. there is NOTHIGN that can specifically predict YOUR specific death.. no... you would need a team of people that run around the world collecting specific data from everyone around YOU and people similar. im not sure i see your point?
@@Andre-qo5ek "if you are part of the given group, it is a prediction of you as an individual in that group. the issue is only specificity of the data" No, it's a prediction for the group. There is no way to tell average outcomes for individuals - only the group.
@@Andre-qo5ek Imagine throwing a 600 sided dice many times? You have no idea what number the dice will land on for any particular throw but you know the average will be 300. Human lives are like the single throw of a dice. One might live to be 110 whatever one's lifestyle, or one might die very young, regardless of lifestyle etc.
@@CurtOntheRadio form the video .... "This is the mathematical theory called the law of large numbers. Basically, the larger your data sample is, the more likely it is that the average of that sample will reflect what actually happens.:"
Yeah but that's only true for now, when you have a network so complex it can pass a point of interconnectedness above our reality, than it's the other way around.
@@singularityscanThere are still fundamental limitations to computation and the prediction influences what happens. For instance one guy who just resolves to kill themselves if and only if the machine predicts they live through the day ruins it.
One thing that I wished this episode had made explicit is that life expectancy means you are 50% likely to make it to that age NOT that you are likely (unquantified) to make it to that age
When my appendix burst and i went into septic shock, i felt strangely serene like "if it's my time, so be it". Why be anxious your whole life about death when you're so chilled while you're actually near death?
Bodily chemicals can do wonderous things. I was in a very severe car accident. Everything happening immediately after the collision was in extremely slow motion. I even noticed that a tiny glass shard had flown past the back of my hand and cut a tiny slit which bled. I had the same thought: "Is this all there is to my life? Oh, well. Does it matter ? No. " It was probably epinephrine/adrenalin flooding my body.
6:50 finally, Charon bought something nice for himself with all those gold coins, he looks really happy in his new yacht Edited: Noo the ending, Joe stole his yacht
My dad had a similar test done (not yet AI but it had a scientific basis). They calculated that he should have died 2 years prior, so they gave him another 2 year to live. That was almost to the day 11 years ago and despite a health scare earlier this year, still going strong...
Question: does the computer also take in possible events? Having a kid, adopting a pet you’ve never had before (like a snake or something) etc., or stressful events like your job gets really bad, someone you love dies, etc. if it can not consider possible events, how is it accurate?
It is accurate in a sense that for a large population the predictions on average will be fairly close to the true results. On a case-by-case notion it is not guaranteed to be precise (many random things affect the mortality), but in general it will be close (in the order of 1-10 years in many cases) for many people. So think of it as of a vaguely correct, but not exactly precise.
For the most part, yes. Many common life events such as if and when people will have kids or what types of pets people will have and at what ages those things will happen are recorded in all that data they amass. So they have a fairly good idea how many people will own poisonous snakes and at what age a person will most likely be when they have children and how many they have. But also keep in mind, the younger you are, the less accurate the predictive model will be, because of all those predictive variables haven’t happened yet. Which is why the guest mentioned that at birth the prediction for Joe would be to die in his 70’s. But now it’s his 80’s. i.e. the older you are, the more data points you have resulting in more accurate predictions.
2:21 yup, an algorithm used by Target mall guessed correctly that a girl was pregnant from the online choices. The girl's dad did not know and complained why she was receiving offers for baby products. The dad apologized when he learned the girl was pregnant.
Okay that case was not really even that much due to the algorithm - rather the incompetence and audacity of the dad. It would be like saying “a forensics program predicted you’re gonna make amphetamines because you have receipts that you bought solvents, acids, phosphorus and ammonia from home depot”
This is why so many people have this extreme fear of death. It always has to do with how it's presented. If you talk to anyone who's had a near-death experience they almost sound like they wish to go back.
Two huge logical leaps in the script: 1. You can predict how long somebody like me will live on average, not how long I will live. 2. I think of death several times a day. I don't feel anxious about it.
Death isn’t the opposite of life, it is a part of life. My attitude towards death (and life) changed completely after a near death experience. We only have the moment we are in, so try to enjoy each one by being as kind as possible to the person we happen to be sharing that moment with
@@odin6108 The reason it doesn't terrify me is probably a combination of the fact that I was experiencing high anxiety about it already and that I truly didn't care at all about anything, say, 5 billion years ago. It's not easy to reject your natural aversion to your own demise but doing so earlier in life will save you stress later. Seriously, be well and if you ever want to chat, I'm generally open to.
@@ninjaeagleart After delving into NDEs (especially well documented ones with veridical perception) with my mind already in “I’m going to debunk this or find a good debunker.” mode, I gradually changed. It took a lot of courage to investigate it and realize that I was wrong. I don’t fear death ( _dying_ yeah) anymore because I know my body dies, but my consciousness doesn’t just “go on”; it’s never been exactly _here_ in the local sense anyway. Quite the opposite will happen: my consciousness will expand. What I do fear…being “on my deathbed” wishing I should have followed my purpose instead of living, say, a life that others want me to live - society, parents, friends, significant others, etc.
Working for a life insurance company, I have heard a lot about predicting when someone will die. I don’t work in the department that deals with that sort of thing, but it absolutely influences my job. It’s almost surreal to hear words used in my industry and know that in the next several years, my company will more than likely be using that AI software.
I honestly JUST finished re-reading "Machine of Death: A Collection of Stories about People who Know how They Will Die" and "This Is How You Die: Stories of the Inscrutable, Infallible, Inescapable Machine of Death" about a week ago.
I just got done watching an investment video stating “past performance is no guarantee of future results” and here I am watching a video about predictive analytics which studies past performance to predict future results.
In the spirit of staying curious, I would like to to see how close the fortune teller's prediction of your likely death is to the computer's prediction.
8:16 NOTHING is free from human bias. The computer can only use data we provide, therefore it also is biased at some level. That's why so many early ChatGPT type programs that were trained on social media quickly became racist, misogynistic, and homophobic. ChatGPT uses much larger data samples and algorithms that are tweaked to try and avoid that pitfall.
I think it’s important to clarify that your individual tracking apps like health trackers are not submitting your data to mega-databases on a super computer somewhere to be harvested for global data - it does explain in this video it takes a collection of data to create a ‘Frankenstein’ of data and that’s important to remember. Your ‘personal’ evaluations and recommendations are based on Frankenstein data, not the same as individualised personalised recommendations. So yes, more and more companies are collecting your data every day, but it isn’t kept connected to your individual identity throughout the data line, and overall estimates and analytics are what are being looked at. Anyone who works in analytics knows how misunderstood it is that all data lives somewhere on an infinite computer database accessible somewhere :D
As people age, a common assumption about them is they sense they have less time remaining. At 74, I don't sense that the time I have left is getting shorter, just increasingly indeterminate.
About two years ago, I took one of those online death date quizzes. It said that I had already died the previous year. Well, it was only off by a few years. I died earlier this year. I was resuscitated, of course, but still...
I am 75 and healthy. Life expectancy is the least of my worries. I worry more about HEALTHY life expectancy. If and when I contract a terrible disease such as cancer or dementia - life is over anyway. This is much harder to predict.
Well "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure", thus people will change there behavior. You might not seek a psychologist when you need it cause you don't want it on you record, you might install software on your computer that dilutes your data, or something else.
@@lajya01, I hear you. Mine is retiring in a couple of years so I’m good for now but you’re right, could prove to be a challenge then. Fingers crossed. I still think that when everything works we have a good system.
"Suggest some good videos to watch while we're waiting..." Scene from "Meet Joe Black" when Hopkins knows his time is short and there's his "daughter" worries... He's playing Solitaire (with real cards)... Kinda makes ya think, no?
It must have been weird for you to see your face as a "dead guy" on the ABC TV show Will Trent. I got a kick out of that. I hope you live a long time to continue sharing interesting science. Thanks for sharing!
3:30 Wrong, I actually am very predictable, I have already determined what to eat four weeks from now for example. 3:40 Wrong, because my sleep schedule is terrible. 3:50 Wrong again, because I'm unemployed.
This is sinister. From it's inception: who does the pirate data help: the sailor or whoever funded the voyage? In this era: the data does little for the individual but is used by powerful groups that don't consider you but rather a dehumanized 'average you'. Creepy really.
I like to think the guy who wrote that joke studied a lot of math and kept talking about becoming an Actuary and passed several exams and never got hired, so he was poking fun at becoming a bitter old man (i.e. not a recent college graduate) and now he feels like a joke, but at least he can write comedy. But I don't know... what do you mean my impression is based on personal experience???
No, a computer cannot predict my death. It can predict how long I will likely live, and the chances of certain forms of death. There's a huge difference.
I sort of learned about this when I had to learn how life insurance works and determines how much you have to pay them. I had to do it by hand with given percentages. It was extremely difficult. But the principles are the same.
Heroes may die, but legends live forever... or something like that... if you are unlucky you might die earlier than expected, yet since you have built something up, others will remember you for quite a bit. some famous guys are dead for centuries now, but history still preaches their deeds or misdeeds. hopefully you can enjoy your few good years in peace and may haps spoil us with your ever-growing wisdom in the future, but keep in mind some good folks still went down the river of Styx way to early.
I have a few relevant paradoxes. Firstly: For those who are not immortal and will die, merely living is a temporary act of cheating death, and it will eventually fail for the individual. Next: Without the existence of life, the universe is merely one big collection of rocks. Yet, if it has life, then efforts must be given in order to sustain that life, and life will end up being very costly for the universe. Next: The only way for a mortal to effectively cheat death is to live long enough to have offspring and thus mar death’s mark on the world. Finally: Due to the deaths of all mortals, those who are immortal will never truly know that they are immortal, since in their minds death could still take them. In other words, mortals exist for a numerical amount of years, but the immortal exist for an unnumbered amount of years, with no set start. The mortal and the immortal cannot mix.
@@astronics nahhhh, they are both chaotic lol putting their own spin on the way they choose to present themselves. It could maybe be from me watching them both daily, but this one had me lost in thought thinking this was Hank! Embarrassing as it is, I was confused and convinced Hank found the most beautiful and flawless wig! 😅😂 I was baffled
My iPhone has a builtin accelerometer, and if it measures a 100g impulse it will probably figure I fell out of an airplane and dial 911, assuming it survived. I'm 81 years old and have outlived three iPhones, and over the years, not one of those iPhones has accurately predicted its own demise, so I'm not holding my breath that my current iPhone will accurately predict its or my demise. I believe in the inevitability of probability: wait long enough and the probable is inevitable. There is about a 50-50 chance that the computer I'm typing this comment on will die before I do, but it won't admit that, so who can you trust these days?
Having had a few health problems, I don’t feel like I’ll live very long but the calculators predict age 86. That’s about in line with my relatives who have passed. It seems like each generation is living shorter lives since the 90’s, or at least that’s what I’m seeing in my family. I think it’s the food and chemicals.
The logic about insurance, is that you spread the risk from an individual to a whole cohort. Such that an occurrence of an event is financial, too expansive for the individual. When predicting an individual's behavior causes an insurance ad absurdum. Because you don't spread the cost evenly to a cohort anymore. Obviously, this is the desire of the insurance company to lower risk and gain more profit, but the idea of spreading risk is lost. But luckily, health insurance companies are not allowed to process such very private data, otherwise the healthcare system would crash, this is in most European countries embedded by law, not the idiotic-false-believed-freedom state. *Addedum; that's why you should only take out insurances, for events which could bring you in a financial ruin. And not for an event like accidentally dropping a smartphone. *Nota Bene; When the prediction of events are "too" good, people will stop paying for the insurance, so the business model of insurances will vanish.
I've got a few more good years in me…
How do you feel about learning that computers can accurately predict your death and have been doing so for years? Let me know in the comments!
idk
i got the 2nd reply ill edit it to answer the question when i watch the video :))
*EDIT:* Bruh it was all because the insurance people wanted more money 💀
I'd be a lot happier if it was used for our benefit and not so insurance companies had a nice a excuse to jack up insurance premiums. One thing I'm glad of is that the UK hasn't had people go bankrupt because of medical costs, as much as our current government are trying get this through.
🎼Shame on us, doomed from the start
May god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
Shame on us for all we have done
And all we ever were, just zeroes and ones....
And here I thought we'd see a Futurama professor's Death-Clock reference. Well done!
**throws himself in front of a car** AH AH! YOU DIDNT SEE THAT COMING, COMPUTER!
ow..
Computer:" added to the database"
Well, mental status could be predicted. Evidence of depression and possible self-harming behaviors could be determined through examination of your medical stats. The actuaries at your insurance company, even if they don't see your medical record (and I'm not sure that they don't), have access to your billing. On anti-depressants? That'll show up. Seeing a psychiatrist? That'll show up, too. But even if it's a "random" nihilist action, that might be predictable through the TH-cam, TikTok, Instagram videos you watch. Going completely off the grid is not easy.
"personality": "impulsive"
Me: “Computer, when am I going to die?”
'Puter: “Tomorrow”
Me: “Oh, sweet, thanks. That's a load off my mind.”
I wish
Lol, I would be sooooooo scared if the computer said that!
@@blobs2635so would YasugoLiebu. They’re just trying to be edgy
😂
@@nathantowns1999it's sarcasm, he's not trying to be edgy.
love that the Hank Green doppelganger joke is still going lol
What joke?
@@thyblackpanther at the end (of the video)
I actually saw an Instagram comment the other week on one of Hank's videos asking him why he changed the name of his youtube channel from 'It's Ok to Be Smart' to 'Be Smart' xD
Doppelhanker
Watch the Scishow Quiz episode where Hank and Joe face off. They look so similar lol.
There always will be bias because somebody will decide what data to record. If favourite colour is important and nobody writes it down, it will be missed - and other (combinations of) factors will be found, thinking that will be enough.
The problem with computers is that they can't be curious about types of data they don't have. They can't ask their subjects new and surprising questions, opening new ways of thinking.
Of course not, but that was never the goal.
not yet!
I think a follow up video exploring which factors are most predictive of long life is in order. What are factors people tend to over value? What are factors that marketers over emphasize? How important is family medical history vs country of residence? I think there are many more interesting angles to approach the subject from.
How rich are you and how long did your parents live... I'd bet those are the most predictive factors by an AU or two. Wealth plays into so many other important factors (health, schooling, neighborhood, food abundance, stress, country).
Now what I'd be curious about -- what factors under your control have an impact greater than 5 years?
I choked when that little cartoon Joe shoved the grim reaper out of the speedboat.
I'm sure Achilles tried it, but Charon's smarter than that
pre-watch comment:
i mean.. actuaries have been doing essentially this for forever... with the added part of BETTING when you will die, it is the definition of life insurance.
post-watch comment:
yup
No, actuaries have been estimating life expectancies for groups/cohorts of people, not individuals. Surely? It's more like predicting cancers given X level of exposure to Y radiation in a population? You can pretty accurately predict a rate of cancer but you can't say which individuals within the population will succumb.
"During the 17th century, a more scientific basis for risk management was being developed. In 1662, a London draper named John Graunt showed that there were predictable patterns of longevity and death in a defined group, or cohort, of people, despite the uncertainty about the future longevity or mortality of any one individual."
@@CurtOntheRadio if you are part of the given group, it is a prediction of you as an individual in that group. the issue is only specificity of the data.
there is NOTHIGN that can specifically predict YOUR specific death.. no... you would need a team of people that run around the world collecting specific data from everyone around YOU and people similar.
im not sure i see your point?
@@Andre-qo5ek "if you are part of the given group, it is a prediction of you as an individual in that group. the issue is only specificity of the data"
No, it's a prediction for the group. There is no way to tell average outcomes for individuals - only the group.
@@Andre-qo5ek Imagine throwing a 600 sided dice many times? You have no idea what number the dice will land on for any particular throw but you know the average will be 300.
Human lives are like the single throw of a dice. One might live to be 110 whatever one's lifestyle, or one might die very young, regardless of lifestyle etc.
@@CurtOntheRadio
form the video .... "This is the mathematical theory called the law of large numbers.
Basically, the larger your data sample is, the more likely it is that the average of that sample will reflect what actually happens.:"
😂 "ahoy hades" on the boat, dying.
Pun intended
Statistics can only tell you the LIKELIHOOD that something will happen. It cannot tell you that something WILL happen.
Yea but thats not cool title for a video
Yeah but that's only true for now, when you have a network so complex it can pass a point of interconnectedness above our reality, than it's the other way around.
@@singularityscanThere are still fundamental limitations to computation and the prediction influences what happens. For instance one guy who just resolves to kill themselves if and only if the machine predicts they live through the day ruins it.
Problem is, the word "likelihood" is scarily, dumbfoundedly accurate
“You hear that guys. I don’t look old!”
One thing that I wished this episode had made explicit is that life expectancy means you are 50% likely to make it to that age NOT that you are likely (unquantified) to make it to that age
Never tell the actuary about your cocaine usage or that you are learning how to juggle chainsaws.
This got me lol
😂
When my appendix burst and i went into septic shock, i felt strangely serene like "if it's my time, so be it". Why be anxious your whole life about death when you're so chilled while you're actually near death?
Serene...sure that wasn't the morphine drip? But seriously, glad you survived!
Bodily chemicals can do wonderous things. I was in a very severe car accident. Everything happening immediately after the collision was in extremely slow motion. I even noticed that a tiny glass shard had flown past the back of my hand and cut a tiny slit which bled. I had the same thought: "Is this all there is to my life? Oh, well. Does it matter ? No. "
It was probably epinephrine/adrenalin flooding my body.
6:50 finally, Charon bought something nice for himself with all those gold coins, he looks really happy in his new yacht
Edited: Noo the ending, Joe stole his yacht
Charon is wild
1:29 I Like The Vsauce reference 😂
My dad had a similar test done (not yet AI but it had a scientific basis). They calculated that he should have died 2 years prior, so they gave him another 2 year to live. That was almost to the day 11 years ago and despite a health scare earlier this year, still going strong...
Question: does the computer also take in possible events? Having a kid, adopting a pet you’ve never had before (like a snake or something) etc., or stressful events like your job gets really bad, someone you love dies, etc. if it can not consider possible events, how is it accurate?
It is accurate in a sense that for a large population the predictions on average will be fairly close to the true results. On a case-by-case notion it is not guaranteed to be precise (many random things affect the mortality), but in general it will be close (in the order of 1-10 years in many cases) for many people. So think of it as of a vaguely correct, but not exactly precise.
For the most part, yes. Many common life events such as if and when people will have kids or what types of pets people will have and at what ages those things will happen are recorded in all that data they amass. So they have a fairly good idea how many people will own poisonous snakes and at what age a person will most likely be when they have children and how many they have.
But also keep in mind, the younger you are, the less accurate the predictive model will be, because of all those predictive variables haven’t happened yet. Which is why the guest mentioned that at birth the prediction for Joe would be to die in his 70’s. But now it’s his 80’s. i.e. the older you are, the more data points you have resulting in more accurate predictions.
The original Lloyd's of London wasn't a company that sold insurance. It was a place in a building where people who sold insurance congregated.
Fact check needed.
2:21 yup, an algorithm used by Target mall guessed correctly that a girl was pregnant from the online choices. The girl's dad did not know and complained why she was receiving offers for baby products. The dad apologized when he learned the girl was pregnant.
Okay that case was not really even that much due to the algorithm - rather the incompetence and audacity of the dad.
It would be like saying “a forensics program predicted you’re gonna make amphetamines because you have receipts that you bought solvents, acids, phosphorus and ammonia from home depot”
I read that book too. "The Power of Habit" by Charles Duhig
@@jillcrowe2626 yup, I first read about it in that book.
This is why so many people have this extreme fear of death. It always has to do with how it's presented. If you talk to anyone who's had a near-death experience they almost sound like they wish to go back.
Two huge logical leaps in the script:
1. You can predict how long somebody like me will live on average, not how long I will live.
2. I think of death several times a day. I don't feel anxious about it.
I agree with both
@@morbidiablack5321 Nice username 😉
Lookin more like a young Bill Nye every day
Death isn’t the opposite of life, it is a part of life. My attitude towards death (and life) changed completely after a near death experience. We only have the moment we are in, so try to enjoy each one by being as kind as possible to the person we happen to be sharing that moment with
before watching: i mean this is the whole business of life insurance. those folks are literally betting on your life
after the video: i mean, yeah
I had anxiety about death until a conversation with my father in which he had me consider how I felt before I was born.
Same! I just recently "learned" this and it has helped so much!
I have been aware of this 'thought experiment' since I was in 3rd grade or so, and it honestly terrifies me way more.
@@odin6108 The reason it doesn't terrify me is probably a combination of the fact that I was experiencing high anxiety about it already and that I truly didn't care at all about anything, say, 5 billion years ago.
It's not easy to reject your natural aversion to your own demise but doing so earlier in life will save you stress later.
Seriously, be well and if you ever want to chat, I'm generally open to.
I have death anxiety and this fact never makes me feel any better
@@ninjaeagleart After delving into NDEs (especially well documented ones with veridical perception) with my mind already in “I’m going to debunk this or find a good debunker.” mode, I gradually changed. It took a lot of courage to investigate it and realize that I was wrong.
I don’t fear death ( _dying_ yeah) anymore because I know my body dies, but my consciousness doesn’t just “go on”; it’s never been exactly _here_ in the local sense anyway. Quite the opposite will happen: my consciousness will expand.
What I do fear…being “on my deathbed” wishing I should have followed my purpose instead of living, say, a life that others want me to live - society, parents, friends, significant others, etc.
You look fine Joe, don’t worry about it, until you’re 50. Great episode, thanks. Episode on living longer? David Sinclair?
Working for a life insurance company, I have heard a lot about predicting when someone will die. I don’t work in the department that deals with that sort of thing, but it absolutely influences my job. It’s almost surreal to hear words used in my industry and know that in the next several years, my company will more than likely be using that AI software.
Like your content entertaining informative and funny can’t wait to see 40 + more years of premium content ❤😂
Hey Joe, smart people here! please make videos more often, they are always so interesting
Can a computer be an actuary? Well, yes.
I honestly JUST finished re-reading "Machine of Death: A Collection of Stories about People who Know how They Will Die" and "This Is How You Die: Stories of the Inscrutable, Infallible, Inescapable Machine of Death" about a week ago.
I just got done watching an investment video stating “past performance is no guarantee of future results” and here I am watching a video about predictive analytics which studies past performance to predict future results.
If you don't want your life to end on this blue rock, then volunteer for a one-way trip to Mars.
Even unimportant factors can suddenly become important factors…there are always outliers…you’re also trying to predict the chances you’re an outlier
What's freaky is when you actual age gets close to your predicted death (and watching your age peers disappear one by one).
Celebrating Germany today with your running gear?
How do you know it's not Belgium
@@besmart Because it is horizontal, not vertical :)
@@besmart Germany’s flag has the red stripe in the middle; Belgium’s middle stripe is yellow.
@@besmart Amateur. ;)
In the spirit of staying curious, I would like to to see how close the fortune teller's prediction of your likely death is to the computer's prediction.
8:16 NOTHING is free from human bias. The computer can only use data we provide, therefore it also is biased at some level. That's why so many early ChatGPT type programs that were trained on social media quickly became racist, misogynistic, and homophobic. ChatGPT uses much larger data samples and algorithms that are tweaked to try and avoid that pitfall.
Never forget Tay ❤
I do remember showing my 7th grade science teacher your 12 days of evolution series when it was new
If you're old then man, I'm ancient 😂
What was Mesopotamia like Grandpa/ma?
do you have pet dinosaur?
I wish you live a healthy live into your 100s! Thanks for your videos.
I think it’s important to clarify that your individual tracking apps like health trackers are not submitting your data to mega-databases on a super computer somewhere to be harvested for global data - it does explain in this video it takes a collection of data to create a ‘Frankenstein’ of data and that’s important to remember. Your ‘personal’ evaluations and recommendations are based on Frankenstein data, not the same as individualised personalised recommendations. So yes, more and more companies are collecting your data every day, but it isn’t kept connected to your individual identity throughout the data line, and overall estimates and analytics are what are being looked at. Anyone who works in analytics knows how misunderstood it is that all data lives somewhere on an infinite computer database accessible somewhere :D
AHOY HADES
Nice detail, Be Smart team. Very nice. 👏
As people age, a common assumption about them is they sense they have less time remaining. At 74, I don't sense that the time I have left is getting shorter, just increasingly indeterminate.
Well, gosh! This is a feel good episode!
Dang, I miss watching this, I love learning new things.
Hey Joe! Really love the videos. A request, please make a video about astroinformatics. How AI and Data Science is helping in astronomy.
0:26 not me thinking he didn't have shorts on 😂
Can't unsee that one now! 🤣🤣🤣
"Hank Green is my favourite." 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
About two years ago, I took one of those online death date quizzes.
It said that I had already died the previous year.
Well, it was only off by a few years.
I died earlier this year.
I was resuscitated, of course, but still...
man, as peaceful as death was, I sure do prefer the times when I'm alive
As a biphasic sleeper, it’s unpredictable where I’ll be at 4am.
So Sheldon wasn't crazy, when he tried to calculate when he'll die
I am 75 and healthy. Life expectancy is the least of my worries. I worry more about HEALTHY life expectancy. If and when I contract a terrible disease such as cancer or dementia - life is over anyway. This is much harder to predict.
Well "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure", thus people will change there behavior. You might not seek a psychologist when you need it cause you don't want it on you record, you might install software on your computer that dilutes your data, or something else.
Have a high VO2max and don't go caving and you're good.
I'd rather die young than train in a way that increases my VO2 max
4:30 Is he really called Dall-E HAL 2001?!!
Yup! Not sure all Canadians exercise regularly and eat healthy foods but we do have access to good healthcare when we need it AND it’s “free”. 😊
Not the Canada I live in. I have to pay private care or wait until death.
@@lajya01, I am sorry to read that, I am in Quebec and it’s a different reality at least for me and my family.
@@fortierma64 That's exactly what's happening in Qc. Wait until your GP retires...
@@lajya01, I hear you. Mine is retiring in a couple of years so I’m good for now but you’re right, could prove to be a challenge then. Fingers crossed. I still think that when everything works we have a good system.
"Suggest some good videos to watch while we're waiting..." Scene from "Meet Joe Black" when Hopkins knows his time is short and there's his "daughter" worries...
He's playing Solitaire (with real cards)... Kinda makes ya think, no?
3:40 "...predict where you'll be at 4:00 tomorrow...it's at home in bed." YOU DON'T KNOW ME SON!!!
It must have been weird for you to see your face as a "dead guy" on the ABC TV show Will Trent. I got a kick out of that. I hope you live a long time to continue sharing interesting science. Thanks for sharing!
3:30 Wrong, I actually am very predictable, I have already determined what to eat four weeks from now for example.
3:40 Wrong, because my sleep schedule is terrible.
3:50 Wrong again, because I'm unemployed.
I want to use this program and put in the most diabolical parameters to see what happens.
Hey, don't have a heart attack, you're not 92 yet.
A person often meets his destiny on the road he took to avoid it (Jean de La Fontaine). Be careful of what you try to avoid, lest you invite it in.
again well presented
They should start calling the "black swan" events, "Dean Winters" events. "Mayhem, like me!"
My impression from this video is that no matter how unique we think we are, we're all just number vectors in the end.
This is sinister. From it's inception: who does the pirate data help: the sailor or whoever funded the voyage?
In this era: the data does little for the individual but is used by powerful groups that don't consider you but rather a dehumanized 'average you'. Creepy really.
Reminds me of the death clock from Futurama
I like to think the guy who wrote that joke studied a lot of math and kept talking about becoming an Actuary and passed several exams and never got hired, so he was poking fun at becoming a bitter old man (i.e. not a recent college graduate) and now he feels like a joke, but at least he can write comedy.
But I don't know... what do you mean my impression is based on personal experience???
I always learn so much from joe
No, a computer cannot predict my death. It can predict how long I will likely live, and the chances of certain forms of death. There's a huge difference.
True
That’s what he said, reread the title buddy
Yeah. Thats the whole point of the video
@@davechaffey3493 So the point of the video is to prove the title of the video is a lie.
@@firstcynic92WHOOSH
I sort of learned about this when I had to learn how life insurance works and determines how much you have to pay them. I had to do it by hand with given percentages. It was extremely difficult. But the principles are the same.
Fantastic 💯 👑 thanks
Me reaching 45 years old this years hurted. I don't feel old, but.. that is not a lot of life remaining... totally feel that mid life dread.
its ok you still have the potential to live another 30 years maybe even 40 years if you're health isn't to shitty
"All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us." GtMFG
Don't worry-we're all going to die.
Psychology is a science with a lot of immeasurable variables. Imagine advancements in mental health once AI takes over completely.
Heroes may die, but legends live forever... or something like that... if you are unlucky you might die earlier than expected, yet since you have built something up, others will remember you for quite a bit. some famous guys are dead for centuries now, but history still preaches their deeds or misdeeds. hopefully you can enjoy your few good years in peace and may haps spoil us with your ever-growing wisdom in the future, but keep in mind some good folks still went down the river of Styx way to early.
Thanatos phobia, the fear of missing a Marvel movie.
Hmm the computer in a more advanced version existing on Death Note will make an interesting plot
"Dennis, our lives are in your hands and you've got Butterfingers!"
I'm not old but it still scares me out of my mind
love the simplistic question models- smoke y/n. drink y/n. height/weight... okay- "why are you still alive?"
Tim Urban had a blog post
that we only have 4000 weeks to live, if we live up to age 90.
When I die, I want to go peacefully like my Grandpa.
Not kicking and screaming like the other people in his car…
to those trolling about someone looking "Old" I hope you're lucky enough not to have to suffer the same fate
I have a few relevant paradoxes.
Firstly: For those who are not immortal and will die, merely living is a temporary act of cheating death, and it will eventually fail for the individual.
Next: Without the existence of life, the universe is merely one big collection of rocks. Yet, if it has life, then efforts must be given in order to sustain that life, and life will end up being very costly for the universe.
Next: The only way for a mortal to effectively cheat death is to live long enough to have offspring and thus mar death’s mark on the world.
Finally: Due to the deaths of all mortals, those who are immortal will never truly know that they are immortal, since in their minds death could still take them. In other words, mortals exist for a numerical amount of years, but the immortal exist for an unnumbered amount of years, with no set start. The mortal and the immortal cannot mix.
I am still baffled by my inability to distinguish between Hank and yourself. And I apologize. 😅 🤘🏽
they do look quite a like, i just think hank is the more chaotic one!
@@astronics nahhhh, they are both chaotic lol putting their own spin on the way they choose to present themselves. It could maybe be from me watching them both daily, but this one had me lost in thought thinking this was Hank! Embarrassing as it is, I was confused and convinced Hank found the most beautiful and flawless wig! 😅😂 I was baffled
You may have Prosopagnosia.
@@aussie405 well if that be the case, fingers crossed everyone gets their name in Braille on their faces lol 🤞🏽
It’s easy now that Hank has curly hair. :)
I wish you 100 years 🎉😊❤
My iPhone has a builtin accelerometer, and if it measures a 100g impulse it will probably figure I fell out of an airplane and dial 911, assuming it survived. I'm 81 years old and have outlived three iPhones, and over the years, not one of those iPhones has accurately predicted its own demise, so I'm not holding my breath that my current iPhone will accurately predict its or my demise. I believe in the inevitability of probability: wait long enough and the probable is inevitable. There is about a 50-50 chance that the computer I'm typing this comment on will die before I do, but it won't admit that, so who can you trust these days?
If you’re getting all your health advice from TikTok, your life expectancy will be likely shorter (and yes, I am actually a doctor…of medicine, MD).
pls song name at 2:29
"Ahoy Hades" will be the name of my next album.
Having had a few health problems, I don’t feel like I’ll live very long but the calculators predict age 86. That’s about in line with my relatives who have passed. It seems like each generation is living shorter lives since the 90’s, or at least that’s what I’m seeing in my family. I think it’s the food and chemicals.
The logic about insurance, is that you spread the risk from an individual to a whole cohort. Such that an occurrence of an event is financial, too expansive for the individual.
When predicting an individual's behavior causes an insurance ad absurdum. Because you don't spread the cost evenly to a cohort anymore. Obviously, this is the desire of the insurance company to lower risk and gain more profit, but the idea of spreading risk is lost. But luckily, health insurance companies are not allowed to process such very private data, otherwise the healthcare system would crash, this is in most European countries embedded by law, not the idiotic-false-believed-freedom state.
*Addedum; that's why you should only take out insurances, for events which could bring you in a financial ruin. And not for an event like accidentally dropping a smartphone.
*Nota Bene; When the prediction of events are "too" good, people will stop paying for the insurance, so the business model of insurances will vanish.
"right now there are people out there predicting your death and mine".............My brain ISIS lmao
'There could be outlier events that we would never see coming'
So called 'spiders georg' events
Sadly, predictive analytics are used far more for marketing and money-making than they are for things that actually matter like life expectancy.
Doesn't "money-making" provide a means to realise "things that matter"?