If Tesla's Giga Mexico is Delayed, Where Will the Next Factory Be?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 ก.ย. 2023
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I really want Tesla to get this Giga Factory setup in both Mexico and then one in the next couple of years in Canada. To make North America a real power house for electrification and Manufacturing of all kinds.
So much for the red carpet being rolled out for Tesla.
makes you think how difficult it will be for them to build anything in India or Indonesia.
We don't know yet.
Good analysis. A compact Tesla is needed here in Europe as M3 and MY are too big for many. In the US, people seem to be more interested in big cars like the Cybertruck. It would make more sense to build the Gen3 in Shanghai or even Europe.
What's stopping Tesla from building the new Model 2 at Giga Texas? They have plenty of room! I see they can add 7+ more factories of the same size on the property they own... plus tax credits for being made in the USA...
Everyone is disappointed that Mexico is late. Is the cause due to late approval or battery arrangements?
In any case, if there is really a delay of four years, the stock price will not rise。If this happens, it would be faster to hold off on fighting in Mexico and move to other countries like India, Canada, or Texas. I think there will be no problem with the labor costs if they are gradually replaced by Optimus.
I'm a Tesla bull but I think we've over-estimated the stock potential for Tesla in the near-term. Current price = 2020 price, despite all the successes and growth. The only way the stock will make any kind of significant jump (let's say 1x+) is if earnings massively increase (I stress, massively, waaaay beyond expectations. Meaning, the
The skids need more grease to keep things moving
Maybe the Big Guy is looking for his 10%, need to check Hunter’s flight records to Mexico
Don't forget about the semi...but I haven't noticed much extra going on in Nevada either.
Old thought but semi breaks ground in entirely new sector, if it works THERE Teslas of other types, mid-size trucks, vans, etc., will work across the commercial landscape.
Definitely a disheartening rumor when I first heard it yesterday. Wish the next was already announced and ready to leapfrog Mexico if they can't sort it out, assuming it's true. I think more than anything else, not having an affordable model by 2025 would be a massive failure by Tesla's leadership towards the mission, especially with ample time to have been doing R&D work with rumors going back to like 2018.
I am surprised that Elon knows so little about Mexico. Forget about Mexico. Delaying the production of Model 2 to 2027 isn’t an option. It only takes 9 months to build a Giga factory in Southern China. China is the biggest market for Model 2 too. Unfortunately seeing what happens to Apple, I guess Elon may need to consider Korea, Japan, Malaysia, or one of the states in US. India isn’t an option as the Indian bureaucracy is even worst than Mexico’s.
Cheers
Texas!
The Cybertruck needs to ramp. A SUV version could double demand. A compact car has compromises, safety being a big one. The Model 3 Highland needs a line in Germany and Texas. Volume will give Tesla a cost advantage. A Model 2 could cost less but needs high volume and some of this will come from the Model 3. It might be better to make Model 3 versions such as a 2 door or station wagon to get volume up. Every time a person is replaced by a robot it makes less sense to locate where labor is cheaper. Batteries have the most potential to lower cost and improve the vehicles. Maybe more than lower cost labor.
How about Florida or even at the Texas plant?
Yes, I suggested Texas
@@TeslaEconomistNo money paid to the cartels, no permits. Easy as that.....
I suspect we will see many "warehouses" and "parking garages" being built at Tesla's existing factories over the next few years. Somehow, I wouldn't be shocked to see their next generation platform vehicles (produced with their much smaller footprint modular unboxed process) rolling out of these warehouses and parking garages a couple of years from now.
Elon Tulsa Oklahoma would be a great site for a GigaFactory!
Thanks again, Lee. We can see that Elon's 'X' distraction does hurt the company and stock in different ways, even as the long-term picture remains bright.
I would love it if the war In Ukraine would end quickly then a new factory there would be great. Good labor force and a need to rebuild its economy.
Not likely, highly corrupt nation too right to the top, but then we have Biden Crime Family pretending to run things here so....political risk everywhere especially China.
Yep. A bunch of rocket scientists with killer drone skills. Motivated.
If you build a factory there, what’s stopping Russia from starting a war again and blowing it up? I think it’s a very unsafe location
@@SoloTravelBlog Particularly when SpaceX is providing Starlink to Ukraine, a big sore spot for Putin already, they'd sure as hell target anything attached to Elon.
@@Mrbfgray potential false flag. Who knows for Nordstream pipeline? Could easily be USA, motive, capability, no alibi.
Giga Berlin will be first to construct next gen vehicle
The next phase is being worked in giga Berlin.
Construction is happening on the site, and the plans show very little space for assembly and two huge areas for injected plastics
So next gen vehicle will first be built in Germany and be mainly plastic. That will save on labour and also no need for paint.
China central government is stopping Tesla from building next gen car on the new site in Shanghai but think Elon is hopeful they will eventually allow Tesla to build their second factory
Sure some time in the future Tesla will expand Austin.
However they super busy building other stuff there at the moment
Giga plant Between Corpus and San Antonio and a Megapack plant in Australia!
It has to be in Mexico, cheaper wages. And it also needs to be a place to reach Latin and South America
Great analysis! If Tesla keeps the robotaxi fleet for themselves I wonder how would the EV tax rebate be handled as the EV wouldn't actually be sold to a taxpayer?
@@tireddad6541given 'unboxed' assembly, automated cells & packs, Ethernet wiring, castings, novel paintless skin (?), labour won’t be a huge part of costs. Plus Optimus will soon be helping out with tedious jobs, perhaps soon after production started. I never was keen on Mexico, wouldn’t mourn loss except for loss of momentum.
@@tireddad6541can’t deliver overland Mexico to Brazil, so that’s moot. Coastal India would have same transport costs to Brazil - by ship.
The machine that builds the machine has been a phrase commonly used at Tesla. IMO Gen 3 Tesla vehicles may be built almost exclusively by robotics. If this is true, where is the incentive for countries to host such factories? The host countries may want assurances Tesla is unwilling to make while looking forward. The auto factory worker may go the way of the toll both operator sooner rather than later. Tesla may feel they are often better off expanding and revamping existing factories over building new ones. Why Tesla does not go more vertical and/or subterranean with their factory designs I don’t know.
Why are you wearing a jumper? It is 30oC out.
GigaJapan 🤞🤞...
Why would Tesla build new factories, if the operating ones are running at half throttle due to low demand.
Built in Austin AND Shanghai? Eurasian and American markets. But maybe whatever the glitch is in Mexico, it will be worked out soon.
Tesla just learned what it takes to get the new Model 3 produced with only half of the revolutionary innovations planned for the new car and is in the final stages of getting the Cyber-truck into early production. The Semi still isn't produced at scale. Corpus Christi may be using some of the same construction resources needed in Mexico. Isn't it possible that they did the math and won't be ready with the giga presses, revamped wiring and harness system in place, new battery technologies, etc., up to scale until then? There are still so many balls up in the air. Maybe Tesla realized it just can't juggle it all.
They are both in North America but not the United States of America but perhaps I am confused. Age does that.
Shanghai would get things up and running quickly and cheaply.
But I'm wondering, with the new automation ideas, maybe just build the new factory in America and make decent profits despite the labor costs, and so avoid all the worries associated with Mexico and China (among others)--build someplace where there is stable and (mostly) predictable rule-of-law.
That might give Tesla time to consider China, or instead expand Giga Berlin--which would take a lot of time indeed, but they would be giving themselves breathing room to roll the rock back up the German mountain by first bringing inline an American/Texas expansion.
Or if China is necessary, then maybe build in both Shanghai and Texas so as to have a fallback if there are geopolitical issues in China.
Either way, the idea of building in Mexico always seemed like a huge risk, so many power players and so few ressrictions on what they might denand of Tesla.
First thing the report of Semanart is already out, we follow by the rules. Tesla needs to plan and improve their securities for environmental impact. Second, mexico is the 6th productor of cars even ahead of South Korea or Canada and many other nations. Rushing this process don't make any sense
20m by 2030 is almost impossible. 10m will also be a challenge.
it can be done
Tesla will likely want to keep information about the construction progress of their Nuevo Leon Mexico Gigafactory as restricted as possible, to avoid the Osborne effect on their current lineup. I wouldn't be surprised if a no-fly zone and press restrictions are part of their negotiations with the Mexican government. Tesla has already reportedly cancelled negotiations with Spain over similar disclosure and confidentiality issues. Tesla may stop announcing new Gigfactory locations, and simply build them in secret, similar to military facilities.
Remember that the Model 2 is going to be their ‘World Car’, the modern equivalent of the VW Beetle. USA is only a small market for this car so building it in the US doesn’t really make a lot of sense given the 4M-5M production target annually over time. More likely 2 or 3 factories around the globe.
This is going to take time and of course gets the Tesla bull crowd running around like headless chickens as it won’t mean an instant moonshot for the stock price. Anyone expecting millions of Model 2’s in the next 2-3 years is going to be disappointed but give it 5 years and we’re likely to have new models, FSD and Robotaxis. Be patient.
Giga Mexico is one of the reasons there is just tumble weed with regards to the stock price.
I think you're massively underestimating the demand for affordable cars in the US market period right now. Paying attention to more general auto market news, basically the only low inventory remaining in today's auto market is the cheapest vehicles: Corolla, Camry, Accord, Hyundai/Kia low end models, Chevy Bolt the only non-Tesla EV selling well--auto prices ballooned crazily in two years to simply being unaffordable; there is so much demand at the low end. Maybe that will have shifted by 2025, but hard telling.
I think a $25k Tesla ($17.5k brand new after federal incentive, maybe lower still with state/utility incentives) would sell like hotcakes no matter what. More than even just the new market, it'd be causing chaos in the used car market: can you imagine a safe, industry-leading tech, and performant brand new car priced the same as many 3-5+ year old used cars? It's an absolute no brainer. It might not sell like EU/China, but doubtlessly always a sizable US market (surely larger than the market for 3/Y/S/X) for a cheap vehicle that gets you A-to-B reliably. If some of the large state incentives still were going, it might be $10,000 for a new car that isn't a like Wuling Mini--madness! Also don't forget Tesla was aiming to sell it into new markets like Mexico and South America as well.
Canada
TH-cam suggests translating "Canada" to English. ;-)
Word today is Mexico has been scrapped and Gen 3 will be built in Austin!
The risk of China nationalizing the Tesla mfg plant is too high for them to increase their commitment to China. In addition, they should not grease the skids in Mexico. The Biden administration will tie them up in court for decades if they do. No they should be above board in Mexico, keep working on that mfg facility and expand in Canada or America.
Isn’t both Mexico & Canada in America? I guess I’m just confused. Age does that.
@@iandavies4853 there's more than one definition of America, and context clues here let you know which one the poster meant
@@paulm6737 ahh … Lewis Carol / Humpty Dumpty - when I use a word it means exactly what I choose it to mean.
Very helpful.
Will Mexico be build faster than Berlin? 😂
Tesla is going to make it first in Austin, that is were all the Engineers are to make all the NEW factory items and a brand new car. This is not going to happen in Mexico, Cybertruck and Unboxed car and factory has to be Austin.
Too much exposure in China already, Vietnam, Indonesia, or India would be better
What the hell is wrong with Mexico?
The government should have a full time expediter assigned to Tesla or they'll leave and take the ball somewhere else.
Criminals Cartels & corruption...
Just environmental processes, like any other nation. Tesla must follow Mexico rules or leave if they can't follow up. They made the greatest mistake buying land between one natural federal reserve and a state reserve.
I'm concerned about too many eggs in the Shanghai basket. China invading Taiwan would likely stop all production in China and those factories could be forfeited.
China is a huge political risk. Better to minimize risk - or at least spread it.
"Tesla is'" not "Tesla are..."
Europé spark Greece had low wages coupe be There. Otherwise china
Mexico has one of the worst bureaucracy in the world.
The 3 big problems Tesla has:
- Mexico plant to produce no cars before 2027
- Very slow production ramp up for Cybertruck
- The new Model 3 won't sell in Europe because of the stalkless design.
You are trolling!
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤪🤪🤪
PUERTO RICO because Puerto Rico it's the TOTALITY of the NAME of the Company represent TESLA 369 and PUERTO RICO its the NUMBER 9 at the marking of a TRIANGLE that the 369 represent. That's all I can said, sorry ! ❤🌺🌺🌞
Make it in Austin & be done with it.
I’d prefer Shanghai, but politics …
Mexico was always weird idea, fragile, risky.
It’s most likely fake news, so don’t get worked up.
I gotta say, I totally agree with Lee this time. Whole video.
But I’m not privy to Elon’s ideas.
We don’t see 10% of opportunities, plus are years late. Armchair critics.
2023 = 1.8m prod. 2025 = 3m to 3.5m (approx). To hit 20m target by 2030, they'll have to 6.5x in 5 yrs. They better get on those new gigafactories! They'll need to build about 5 soon to get to 20m in 2030! Lol Tesla losing traction
Make Model 3 in China? NO. Tesla WILL GET SCREWED IN CHINA.
Small cars aren't selling in the USA? They WILL. Once available.
- The market is changing: economic slowdowns RELIABLY cause a market shift to smaller cars. It'll happen.
- No one's making a COMPELLING small EV. When Tesla does that, it'll sell. Like hotcakes.
He's right though that Tesla needs to have more gigafactory starts. One in Canada would make sense. Starting there with the clear proviso that what's required is not cash from the government, but a clear construction path that will optimize speed of construction, zero planning dept. headaches, fast-tracking of any regulatory requirements. Build it near universities with LOTS of high-quality engineering grads (Ontario has a bunch of such institutions & its grads are in high demand at Tesla & Silicon Valley). It would qualify for all the same incentives at the sales end as anything made in Mexico. And launching another N American plant would issue a wake-up call to anyone slowing progress in Mexico. Plus, a Canadian plant won't be subject to the same risks as a Mexican plant (graft/corruption in government, pressure/threats/extortion from criminal gangs, hijacking of produced product by cartels...). Labour costs shouldn't be a major issue: Tesla is already migrating much of the production labour to bots & that'll increase as the TeslaBot becomes a real factor. The key constraint isn't labour cost, it's engineering talent. And that, Canada has in abundance.
Mexico will eventually progress, but it looks like Tesla is running into similar constraints to what it faced in Germany. Thought the problem is more likely outright corruption & crime, less likely the simple (but hugely obstructive) bureaucratic slowdowns it's experiencing in Berlin.
Tesla WILL get thrown out of China, when the time is right for the CCP. That's coming. They're already doing it to everyone else (starting with the Japanese). It makes no sense to scale further in China when you're going to lose it all eventually. Canada's not going to grab your production facility, steal your IP or extort your profits at the point of a gun. Build at least ONE N American plant somewhere safe.
The delay may be caused by the fact that there will be a major financial collapse later this year. Saving your gun powder is not a bad idea.